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reds44
05-05-2010, 06:39 PM
Fay Tweet:

Baker: "With Stubbs struggling, we're going to have to rethink things." Look for new leadoff man Fri. Who it will be I couldnt guess #reds

IMO, it could only be one of two things. Either Heisey is going to be the leadoff hitter and CFer or they will be OC up to the leadoff spot and drop Stubbs down to 8th.

_Sir_Charles_
05-05-2010, 06:40 PM
Hanigan! :O)

TheNext44
05-05-2010, 06:40 PM
can't happen soon enough.

reds44
05-05-2010, 06:43 PM
can't happen soon enough.
If Francisco or Balentin were hitting AT ALL, I would be all for sending Stubbs down, but we don't have a lot of options at this point.

forfreelin04
05-05-2010, 06:47 PM
I posted some analysis of Stubbs in a new thread. Supposed to be with the mods right now. It has a few links.

I think his problems are mechanical.

fugowitribe
05-05-2010, 06:49 PM
It may just be me thinking too much, but does anyone else think Stubbs is too comfortable for his position? When Dickerson got hot, Drew realized his job was at stake and got going. Now that Dickerson is out for a while, he is back to missing balls by three feet and going 0'fer too many games to count. He has the D and speed to bat leadoff, but his contact is pathetic. I have always thought of the leadoff as a run producing spot, because of the sacrifices by the pitcher whenever the bottom of the order puts things together. His lack of production has cost us too many runs. In all of these one run games we have had, the only sensible thing to do is get him out of there and maybe even send him down.

TheNext44
05-05-2010, 06:50 PM
If Francisco or Balentin were hitting AT ALL, I would be all for sending Stubbs down, but we don't have a lot of options at this point.

No need to send him down, just take him out of the leadoff spot. He's already been quoted that he felt more comfortable batting lower in the order.

I'm not a big lineup guy, but I think this is effecting his approach to hitting. Kinda the same way hitting Phillips cleanup hurt his approach.

forfreelin04
05-05-2010, 06:51 PM
It may just be me thinking too much, but does anyone else think Stubbs is too comfortable for his position? When Dickerson got hot, Drew realized his job was at stake and got going. Now that Dickerson is out for a while, he is back to missing balls by three feet and going 0'fer too many games to count. He has the D and speed to bat leadoff, but his contact is pathetic. I have always thought of the leadoff as a run producing spot, because of the sacrifices by the pitcher whenever the bottom of the order puts things together. His lack of production has cost us too many runs. In all of these one run games we have had, the only sensible thing to do is get him out of there and maybe even send him down.

His lack of contact is what I was addressing in the thread that is yet to be approved.

It has been and continues to be horrible.

I read on a scout website that is swing was 5.5 frames long coming out of UT. Frames being the number of camera frames on a full swing in quicktime. One poster (scout) stated that a player needs a swing under 5 to even get a solid look from some scouts.

Boss-Hog
05-05-2010, 06:53 PM
I approved it - not sure why it went to us for approval/review?

forfreelin04
05-05-2010, 06:54 PM
I approved it - not sure why it went to us for approval/review?

Hmmm.... I did have some links to several sites (3). I was thinking that was it.

Thanks Boss! :thumbup:

fearofpopvol1
05-05-2010, 07:01 PM
I want Stubbs in the lineup, but not hitting 1st. He's not a leadoff hitter. Bat him 6th.

I would imagine OCab hits 1st. I can't imagine anyone else would unless it was Heisey.

It should be Hanigan though.

mdccclxix
05-05-2010, 07:22 PM
I'm wondering how much better Heisey could do, he's looked overmatched by quite a bit in my view.

Mario-Rijo
05-05-2010, 07:31 PM
His lack of contact is what I was addressing in the thread that is yet to be approved.

It has been and continues to be horrible.

I read on a scout website that is swing was 5.5 frames long coming out of UT. Frames being the number of camera frames on a full swing in quicktime. One poster (scout) stated that a player needs a swing under 5 to even get a solid look from some scouts.

I concur with this thinking his bat has always been an issue he can't seem to iron out. I think at some point in the past his bat speed was questioned, by whom I can't recall but watching him this season you could see he consistenly had trouble with fastballs outside a FB count or at a point when he generally expected it. Some guys can sit back and wait on a breaking pitch and still catch up to the fastball he really seems to struggle there. Having him hit leadoff just compunds the issue because he has to be more patient. I don't know that moving him down is the answer (don't know there is one, Brandon Larson?) but it's a better spot than leadoff for him IMO.

Mario-Rijo
05-05-2010, 07:35 PM
I'm wondering how much better Heisey could do, he's looked overmatched by quite a bit in my view.

I think it's jitters/pressing, he doesn't seem to have his normal approach at the plate. He's not had as much patience as he has shown, then again balls in the minors and balls at the majors can be quite a bit different.

GOYA
05-05-2010, 07:52 PM
If Francisco or Balentin were hitting AT ALL, I would be all for sending Stubbs down, but we don't have a lot of options at this point.

Francisco is 9 for his last 14.

reds44
05-05-2010, 07:57 PM
Francisco is 9 for his last 14.
And he is still OPSing .685.

SMcGavin
05-05-2010, 08:00 PM
Dusty would blow my mind if he put Hanigan up there. Probably Cabrera though.

RedsManRick
05-05-2010, 08:00 PM
I'm guessing we'll just see OCab to #1 and BP back to #2. I'd definitely prefer to see Hanigan moved up, but there's no way that happens. Stubbs will bat 7th in front of Hanigan or 8th behind Hernandez if I had to bet.

GOYA
05-05-2010, 08:01 PM
And he is still OPSing .685.

And he's still only batting .205.

But I don't think you can currently say he's not hitting AT ALL.

Mario-Rijo
05-05-2010, 08:02 PM
I'm guessing we'll just see OCab to #1 and BP back to #2. I'd definitely prefer to see Hanigan moved up, but there's no way that happens. Stubbs will bat 7th in front of Hanigan or 8th behind Hernandez if I had to bet.

Yeah probably about right, Hanigan is too much the proverbial "baseclogger". :rolleyes:

As if Orlando Cabrera is a speed demon.

forfreelin04
05-05-2010, 08:07 PM
I think it's jitters/pressing, he doesn't seem to have his normal approach at the plate. He's not had as much patience as he has shown, then again balls in the minors and balls at the majors can be quite a bit different.

I bet he'll get another start in the Chicago series. Knowing Dusty, probably in center.

I'd like to see Heisey get a shot in LF. Heisey can hit off righties and Gomes lefties.

Don't know if I'd lead him off though, tough to get your first few MLB ab's in the 1 hole.

Mario-Rijo
05-05-2010, 08:16 PM
I bet he'll get another start in the Chicago series. Knowing Dusty, probably in center.

I'd like to see Heisey get a shot in LF. Heisey can hit off righties and Gomes lefties.

Don't know if I'd lead him off though, tough to get your first few MLB ab's in the 1 hole.

It may do the opposite for him and get him back to finding his patience, it's worth a shot.

forfreelin04
05-05-2010, 08:17 PM
I'm guessing we'll just see OCab to #1 and BP back to #2. I'd definitely prefer to see Hanigan moved up, but there's no way that happens. Stubbs will bat 7th in front of Hanigan or 8th behind Hernandez if I had to bet.

While I agree with you, would it blow anyone's mind if Phillips was the leadoff guy?

He's getting on base more than Cabrera (.319 > .2.78) and he's faster. Plus, BP did show some patience when placed in the 2 hole.

He also hasn't driven in many in the 4 hole anyways. OCAB has the propensity to get the "vetty" SF and put the ball into play.


Phillips
OCAB
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
Gomes
Hernandez
Stubbs
Pitcher

Or even Better

Phillips
Bruce
Votto
Rolen
OCAB
Gomes
Hernandez
Stubbs
Pitcher

forfreelin04
05-05-2010, 08:18 PM
It may do the opposite for him and get him back to finding his patience, it's worth a shot.

Very true.

Phillips showed some in the 2 hole last week.

New responsibility and a sit down talk about tablesetting might do Heisey some good.

Mario-Rijo
05-05-2010, 08:19 PM
While I agree with you, would it blow anyone's mind if Phillips was the leadoff guy?

He's getting on base more than Cabrera (.319 > .2.78) and he's faster. Plus, BP did show some patience when placed in the 2 hole.

He also hasn't driven in many in the 4 hole anyways. OCAB has the propensity to get the "vetty" SF and put the ball into play.


Phillips
OCAB
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
Gomes
Hernandez
Stubbs
Pitcher

Or even Better

Phillips
Bruce
Votto
Rolen
OCAB
Gomes
Hernandez
Stubbs
Pitcher

Nah I think Dusty moved BP there to be ahead of Votto so he won't be pitched around much, I think OCab will be the guy. Although he does like that Cabrera drives in runs, tough call.

RedsManRick
05-05-2010, 08:21 PM
If it were me, I'd go with this:

Hanigan
Phillips
Votto
Bruce
Rolen
Heisey/Gomes
Stubbs
Pitcher
Cabrera

With Hernandez in, BP to leadoff, Rolen to 2, Heisey/Gomes to 5, Hernandez to 6.

Falls City Beer
05-05-2010, 08:39 PM
You know, had they listened to me and signed Damon this point would be entirely moot. This franchise, man. Day late, dollar short.

forfreelin04
05-05-2010, 08:44 PM
You know, had they listened to me and signed Damon this point would be entirely moot. This franchise, man. Day late, dollar short.

Preach!:pray:

11larkin11
05-05-2010, 08:45 PM
If it were me, I'd go with this:

Hanigan
Phillips
Votto
Bruce
Rolen
Heisey/Gomes
Stubbs
Pitcher
Cabrera

With Hernandez in, BP to leadoff, Rolen to 2, Heisey/Gomes to 5, Hernandez to 6.

Cabrera has proven to be a pretty good RBI guy. I don't think he would be good as the second leadoff guy.

mace
05-05-2010, 08:47 PM
If it were me, I'd go with this:

Hanigan
Phillips
Votto
Bruce
Rolen
Heisey/Gomes
Stubbs
Pitcher
Cabrera

With Hernandez in, BP to leadoff, Rolen to 2, Heisey/Gomes to 5, Hernandez to 6.

Not sure I like completely shuffling the order for one substitution. That points to the problem of Hanigan leading off: the fact that he won't be playing every day and his catching partner is not a leadoff type. However, they both handle the bat well. I could see Hanigan and Hernandez switching off in the 2-hole, with either Phillips or Cabrera leading off and the other batting sixth.

Falls City Beer
05-05-2010, 08:51 PM
Preach!:pray:

Imagine a leadoff hitter OB at .400 vs. .250. I'm guessing that'd be good for a game or two in the standings, even this early in the season.

Stubbs has pretty well reached the point where he'd better off standing at the plate and taking every pitch he sees.

HokieRed
05-05-2010, 08:58 PM
I'd sit Stubbs and few days and give Heisey several starts in CF to see if he can do anything, but I'd hit him 8th. There's no really good alternative for leadoff, but OCab's probably the best fit if you're going to play him (and as weak as this offense is, I don't see how you can not play him, in LF if not at SS.)

SMcGavin
05-05-2010, 09:05 PM
While I agree with you, would it blow anyone's mind if Phillips was the leadoff guy?


I'd be OK with that. He's a better hitter than Cabrera. Really though, the fact that we are debating a .313 career OBP vs a .321 career OBP for the leadoff spot shows how sorry this situation is.

Guacarock
05-05-2010, 11:06 PM
Phillips makes the most sense leading off. He not only has the OBP advantage over Cabrera, but he's the faster base runner, drawing more walks this season and leading the team in doubles. Granted, BP isn't your protypical table-setter. He just beats our existing alternatives.

Hanigan gets on base more often, but he's slow and doesn't play every day. The current CFers (Stubbs/Heisey) are kids with contact issues who need to hit down in the order until they settle down or flame out.

Votto, Cabrera, Rolen, Gomes and Bruce should be hitting in the middle of the pack and driving in runs.

Falls City Beer
05-05-2010, 11:07 PM
Phillips makes the most sense leading off. He not only has the OBP advantage over Cabrera, but he's the faster base runner, drawing more walks this season and leading the team in doubles. Granted, BP isn't your protypical table-setter. He just beats our existing alternatives.

Hanigan gets on base more often, but he's slow and doesn't play every day. The current CFers (Stubbs/Heisey) are kids with contact issues who need to hit down in the order until they settle down or flame out.

Votto, Cabrera, Rolen, Gomes and Bruce should be hitting in the midddle of the pack and driving in runs.

Phillips is an awful baserunner, though.

Guacarock
05-05-2010, 11:12 PM
Phillips is an awful baserunner, though.

He has lapses, but he's also capable of stealing more than 30 bases in a season. Overall, he fits better as our lead-off batter than our cleanup man. On a team with more in-house offensive talent, he might hit 6 or 7, but we aren't living on that planet with this year's incarnation of the Reds.

Chip R
05-05-2010, 11:24 PM
Phillips makes the most sense leading off. He not only has the OBP advantage over Cabrera, but he's the faster base runner, drawing more walks this season and leading the team in doubles. Granted, BP isn't your protypical table-setter. He just beats our existing alternatives.

Hanigan gets on base more often, but he's slow and doesn't play every day. The current CFers (Stubbs/Heisey) are kids with contact issues who need to hit down in the order until they settle down or flame out.

Votto, Cabrera, Rolen, Gomes and Bruce should be hitting in the midddle of the pack and driving in runs.

He certainly couldn't be any worse than Stubbs, Tavaras, Patterson, et. al.

TheNext44
05-05-2010, 11:29 PM
I think all this just points to how poor of an offense the Reds have. No decent leadoff hitter, no decent clean up hitter. Basically a solid #3 in Votto, a few decent #2's and a bunch of #5-8's.

They really need a LF who can be either a leadoff hitter or a cleanup hitter.

TheNext44
05-05-2010, 11:31 PM
Not saying the Reds are anywhere close to having a lineup with Utley, Howard and Werth, but they do fine with Rollins leading off and he is very comparable to Phillips.

Will M
05-06-2010, 12:56 AM
I think all this just points to how poor of an offense the Reds have. No decent leadoff hitter, no decent clean up hitter. Basically a solid #3 in Votto, a few decent #2's and a bunch of #5-8's.

They really need a LF who can be either a leadoff hitter or a cleanup hitter.

a 3-4-5 of Votto-Rolen-Bruce is not too bad. The two catchers have hit pretty good considering they are catchers. Even Phillips is coming around.

The Reds problem offensively is production from CF & LF:
Stubbs OPS+ 53
Dickerson OPS+ 30
Nix OPS+ 52
Gomes OPS+ 47

Heisey was OPSing .737 at AAA & not suprisingly is 0 for 5 in the bigs.
Frazier's OPS is .600
Francisco's OPS is .607
Balentien's OPS is .537
Alonso's OPS is .724 in AA!

The only guys at AAA that are hitting are Dorn (OPS 871) & Valaika (OPS 830). I honestly wouldn't mind seeing Dorn play LF vs RHP. Other than that it seems like we either wait for the current guys we have to improve or wait for one of our better prospects to start hitting. The other option is to scour other teams junk piles. For example the Royals sent former top prospect Alex Gordon to AAA. I hope Walt is doing something besides waiting for Nix to break out.

KronoRed
05-06-2010, 01:29 AM
Unless we are making a trade to get someone..blah.

WVRedsFan
05-06-2010, 02:44 AM
Phillips seems to be very comfortable in the two hole and Stubbs hitting 6-8 makes more sense. The guy plays a heckuva center field. He will hit--he did last year--so give him time. Leadoff is a problem. Of course, it has been for ages. Try OC there, but a free swinger like him will frustrate. Leftfield? A big wasteland. Nix is hit or miss, Gomes is nearly the same. Nix can't hit leftys and Gomes can't hit righties. Trade time. Of course that won't happen, so we remain .500 on the season as far as I can see. Leadoff remains a mystery...

Spring~Fields
05-06-2010, 02:58 AM
I think all this just points to how poor of an offense the Reds have. No decent leadoff hitter, no decent clean up hitter. Basically a solid #3 in Votto, a few decent #2's and a bunch of #5-8's.
They really need a LF who can be either a leadoff hitter or a cleanup hitter.

It's a shame that the general manager and the manager did not read RedsZone throughout the winter and spring training, like some of the local writers and sports talk show host do to get their info. :fineprint :)

The Reds powers that be, appear to be still scratching their collective heads, because they tend to ignore on base percentages and splits when making out their roster and lineups.

Perhaps "if" they would have addressed their teams weaknesses against right handed pitching and would have addressed the low on base percentages for their various players against right handed pitching. That several on RedsZone wrote about over and over again on, perhaps things might have been different. Of course the ownership groups MLB poverty budget only allows for so much filler and fodder to be purchased.

Speed and power, comes in handy, but comes with problems when they don’t have the skill to reach first base to begin with against right handed pitching, again, as always, the pitching that they receive the vast majority of their plate appearances and at bats against, seems to be rearing it’s ugly head.

RS 121/28 games 4.32 RPG * 162 RS 700 They’re right on schedule for the OBP challenged roster against right handed pitching. They didn't even need any of, fancy math, experts, James or Chone or over analysis to come up with that. :explode:

The Reds don't have an answer for leadoff against right handed pitching unless it is Hanigan. Someone in the powers that be group is hung up on speed vs to get it addressed with what he does have to work with, so he keeps working against the grain.



PA BA OBP SLG OPS Vs. Left Vs. Right
Cairo 24 .125 .125 .125 .250 .333 .333 .333 .666 .000 .000 .000 .000
Nix 38 .176 .243 .324 .567 .000 .333 .000 .333 .194 .242 .355 .597
Gomes 77 .214 .247 .386 .632 .211 .286 .421 .707 .191 .212 .298 .510
Stubbs 105 .174 .267 .283 .549 .136 .269 .273 .542 .200 .284 .308 .592
Cabrera 113 .257 .292 .376 .668 .364 .481 .364 .845 .203 .210 .324 .534
Bruce 107 .242 .318 .463 .781 .227 .320 .545 .865 .246 .321 .449 .770
Phillips 122 .257 .325 .431 .756 .273 .304 .318 .622 .241 .323 .422 .745
Rolen 96 .262 .344 .512 .856 .308 .474 .538 1.012 .254 .312 .507 .819
Janish 21 .316 .381 .632 1.013 .125 .222 .250 .472 .455 .500 .909 1.409
Hernanez 65 .245 .385 .302 .687 .300 .417 .300 .717 .231 .388 .308 .696
Votto 120 .303 .417 .515 .932 .240 .367 .280 .647 .329 .442 .614 1.056
Hanigan 48 .375 .479 .525 1.004 .333 .400 .667 1.067 .387 .500 .484 .984
Totals .238 .314 .384 .698
Opponents .273 .348 .426 .774
National League .257 .332 .408 .740

Vs Left Vs. Right
Cabrera .364 .481 .364 .845 Hanigan .387 .500 .484 .984
Hanigan .333 .400 .667 1.067 Phillips.241 .323 .422 .745
Rolen .308 .474 .538 1.012 Votto .329 .442 .614 1.056
Votto .240 .367 .280 .647 Rolen .254 .312 .507 .819
Bruce .227 .320 .545 .865 Bruce .246 .321 .449 .770
Phillips.273 .304 .318 .622 Stubbs .200 .284 .308 .592
Gomes .211 .286 .421 .707 Gomes .191 .212 .298 .510
Stubbs .136 .269 .273 .542 Cabrera .203 .210 .324 .534


They really should stop working against the numbers, and start working with them.

Mario-Rijo
05-06-2010, 03:14 AM
Make a trade. Got an intriguing name or 2 in mind here, Eric Young Jr. Of course that makes alot more sense if you turn Brandon into something we need because Young isn't a very good OF, but 2B is his natural position. I thought about some kind of blockbuster deal with Colorado involving Ianetta as well (Barmes is struggling and is real more of a UT guy or maybe a SS so they may have some interest in BP) but really tough to figure something out that is feasible.

Ron Madden
05-06-2010, 04:59 AM
I'd be OK with that. He's a better hitter than Cabrera. Really though, the fact that we are debating a .313 career OBP vs a .321 career OBP for the leadoff spot shows how sorry this situation is.



Kinda sad aint it?

nate
05-06-2010, 09:44 AM
If it were me, I'd go with this:

Hanigan
Phillips
Votto
Bruce
Rolen
Heisey/Gomes
Stubbs
Pitcher
Cabrera

With Hernandez in, BP to leadoff, Rolen to 2, Heisey/Gomes to 5, Hernandez to 6.

I like it, but I'd swap Rolen and Phillips.

I'd probably keel over if a lineup like this ever happened.

Raisor
05-06-2010, 09:45 AM
Has anyone asked why they're waiting until Friday to announce the new leadoff hitter?

forfreelin04
05-06-2010, 09:57 AM
Has anyone asked why they're waiting until Friday to announce the new leadoff hitter?

Bonds needs to clear it with his lawyers first. Red tape.....

Leftfielder? :)

BRM
05-06-2010, 09:59 AM
Has anyone asked why they're waiting until Friday to announce the new leadoff hitter?

Maybe Dusty hasn't decided who it will be yet.

forfreelin04
05-06-2010, 10:00 AM
Maybe Dusty hasn't decided who it will be yet.

Heck, we can't decide on a message board.

forfreelin04
05-06-2010, 10:04 AM
Imagine a leadoff hitter OB at .400 vs. .250. I'm guessing that'd be good for a game or two in the standings, even this early in the season.

Stubbs has pretty well reached the point where he'd better off standing at the plate and taking every pitch he sees.

AHHHHH, it pains me to think of the possibilities.

Damon
Phillips
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
OCAB
Hanigan
Stubbs
P

What is somewhat amazing, I still think Dusty would have led off Stubbs to begin the year. Damon probably would have hit 5th or 2nd.

bucksfan2
05-06-2010, 10:34 AM
I have started to come around on Hanigan but I still don't want to see him hit much higher in the lineup. I still think that without any power Hanigan would get pounded in the 1 hole and his hitting would suffer. He has been very effective hitting late in the lineup and really is the type of hitter I want hitting in the 8 hole. A patient hitter who has shown the ability to turn the lineup over by getting on base.

I think/want Cabrera in the leadoff spot as of now. He may not be an ideal leadoff hitter but I think he can fill the role for now. I don't think hitting in a particular spot goes to Cabrera's head and he just goes about his business of hitting. I think you move BP into the leadoff spot he will try and adjust his game too much and will struggle.

_Sir_Charles_
05-06-2010, 11:09 AM
Hanigan C
Janish SS
Votto 1b
Bruce RF
Rolen 3b
Phillips 2b
Heisey/Gomes LF
Stubbs CF
pitcher

As long as Janish is hitting, I'd be fine with this. If he struggles...swap he and Phillips. I'm sure someone could come up with a more efficient combination, but I want some lineup combination that's got Janish in there some.

nate
05-06-2010, 11:11 AM
Has anyone asked why they're waiting until Friday to announce the new leadoff hitter?

They have to reprint the lineup cards.

:cool:

TRF
05-06-2010, 11:27 AM
Here is my lineup...

Heisey LF
Phillips 2B
Votto 1B
Rolen 3B
Bruce RF
Stubbs CF
Hernandez/Hanigan C
P
Janish SS

Maybe a tad unorthodox, but hey, why not?

BRM
05-06-2010, 11:40 AM
Here is my lineup...

Heisey LF
Phillips 2B
Votto 1B
Rolen 3B
Bruce RF
Stubbs CF
Hernandez/Hanigan C
P
Janish SS

Maybe a tad unorthodox, but hey, why not?

The team leader in RBI is on the bench?

Spring~Fields
05-06-2010, 11:44 AM
Maybe Dusty hasn't decided who it will be yet.

It will be a player with a low on base percentage, if there is a change at all, and any changes that might be made, usually don’t last long. Then we will eventually read down the road about them trying different ones but it not working etc. The common three year splits are against most of those players making a real difference.

Good thing most of the Central has problems, so I can hang onto my thought that the Reds are better than they have been, for a little while longer. :eek:

BRM
05-06-2010, 11:46 AM
It will be a player with a low on base percentage, if there is a change at all

That would be correct seeing as how the two prime candidates are Phillips (.325) and Cabrera (.292).

TRF
05-06-2010, 11:46 AM
The team leader in RBI is on the bench?

With his .668 OPS? yep.

BRM
05-06-2010, 11:52 AM
With his .668 OPS? yep.

He's clutch, dude. Clutch.

TRF
05-06-2010, 11:56 AM
I think Janish is clutch. A clutch defender.

defense can be clutch.

The Reds pitchers can hit a little. Cueto is a very good bunter and has good speed. Leake seems to be able to hit. Bailey's bat isn't bad. No need to double switch when you bring Owings in the game. For the Reds, batting the pitcher 8th might be a very good idea. Stubbs 6th, with an emphasis on hitting for power. He could surprise a lot of people.

BRM
05-06-2010, 12:01 PM
I liked your lineup, FWIW.

Hoosier Red
05-06-2010, 12:01 PM
You know when TRF says something nice about Drew Stubbs, he's really selling his idea.

BRM
05-06-2010, 12:02 PM
You know when TRF says something nice about Drew Stubbs, he's really selling his idea.

:laugh:

Good point. Either that or he's been hitting the bottle early this morning.

TRF
05-06-2010, 12:06 PM
I never once doubted his physical tools. I've always criticized the development and lack of plan. Look at how Bruce and Dunn tore through the minors, and compare it to how Stubbs was pushed through in about the same fashion. One of these things is not like the others...

But if you go back to 2007, and look at how he hits lower in the order, well, the potential is there.

But I absolutely loathe him as a leadoff hitter. Its a role he is not suited for.

TRF
05-06-2010, 12:07 PM
I liked your lineup, FWIW.

gracias. :cool:

Cedric
05-06-2010, 12:10 PM
What have we got to lose in playing Stubbs everyday? Nothing as I see it. I would just play him and make sure he's right down at the 8 hole.

Spring~Fields
05-06-2010, 12:21 PM
What have we got to lose in playing Stubbs everyday? Nothing as I see it. I would just play him and make sure he's right down at the 8 hole.

Me too, and I would not wait until late July to make that change. Or compound it by making the same mistake by putting another unproven rookie at leadoff in Heisey either.

OnBaseMachine
05-06-2010, 12:23 PM
I would just play him and make sure he's right down at the 8 hole.

Agreed.

Spring~Fields
05-06-2010, 12:25 PM
That would be correct seeing as how the two prime candidates are Phillips (.325) and Cabrera (.292).

Kind of a limited option, no brainer isn't it, especially with the managers patterns. :)

Let's see, they have clutch, speed, ss or CF, high OBP is not an option :)

TRF
05-06-2010, 12:25 PM
Me too, and I would not wait until late July to make that change. Or compound it by making the same mistake by putting another unproven rookie at leadoff in Heisey either.

Leadoff hitters actually lead off once per game, if the offense can manage a single hit one time through the lineup. Stubbs isn't getting it done, and Gomes certainly isn't the answer in LF. And it's not like he could do much worse. (Well I guess he could...)

dfs
05-06-2010, 12:27 PM
While I agree with you, would it blow anyone's mind if Phillips was the leadoff guy?

Can he play center?

klw
05-06-2010, 12:31 PM
With Phillips success in the two hole I could see him staying there but it seems like he was put in the 2 spot to straighten himself out. This was similar with Stubbs going to the 7 spot for 1 game.
Phillips
Cabrerra
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
Gomes
Stubbs
Hanigan/Hernandez
Pitcher

Either that or they are going to bring the Rickey out of retirement to hit leadoff and play LF. :)
http://www.coreperformance.com/daily/the-performance-life/rickey-hendersons-still-training.html

How about this on the days hanigan goes:

Phillips
Hanigan
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
Cabrerra
Gomes
Stubbs
Pitcher

nate
05-06-2010, 12:32 PM
I think this team is on pace to score 700-ish runs. Maybe 720.

I think a lineup like this:

Votto
Rolen
Cabrera (yes, really!)
Bruce
Gomes
Phillips
Stubbs
Pitcher
Hanigan

Could score 780-800 runs.

Showing my work!

I ran the most common lineup, using the player's career numbers through the famous "lineup tool." You can see the results of that here (http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=stubbs&OBA0=.303&Slug0=.386&Player1=cabrera&OBA1=.321&Slug1=.398&Player2=votto&OBA2=+.452&Slug2=.519&Player3=phillips&OBA3=.313&Slug3=.430&Player4=rolen&OBA4=.370&Slug4=.498&Player5=bruce&OBA5=.310&Slug5=.461&Player6=gomes&OBA6=.327&Slug6=.467&Player7=hernandez&OBA7=.327&Slug7=.416&Player8=pitcher&OBA8=+0.212&Slug8=+0.207&Model=0).


Simulated best lineup with those players: 4.933 RPG or 799 runs
Simulated typical lineup with those players this season: 4.674 RPG or 757 runs

Actual performance this year: 4.32 RPG or 700 runs

Then I plugged (http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=votto&OBA0=.452&Slug0=.519&Player1=hanigan&OBA1=.375&Slug1=.360&Player2=rolen&OBA2=.370&Slug2=.498&Player3=gomes&OBA3=.327&Slug3=.467&Player4=bruce&OBA4=.310&Slug4=.461&Player5=phillips&OBA5=.313&Slug5=.430&Player6=cabrera&OBA6=.321&Slug6=.398&Player7=stubbs&OBA7=.303&Slug7=.386&Player8=pitcher&OBA8=.212&Slug8=.207&Model=0) who I thought would be the best players into the lineup tool which is where that list above comes from. Note, the lineup I thought would be good scored 4.847 RPS (785 runs.)

The tool's "best" lineup: 5.02 RPS or 813 runs

The main difference is I used Hanigan instead of Hernandez.

To pre-empt any freakouts, yes, it's a simulation, it's not "real" baseball. This doesn't consider any platoon splits nor does it consider run prevention.

Is there really a difference of 110-ish runs between the best theoretical lineup and what the Reds have put on the field so far this year? Probably not but I think there's some indication here that the Reds could be doing better with what they have.

Spring~Fields
05-06-2010, 12:35 PM
Leadoff hitters actually lead off once per game, if the offense can manage a single hit one time through the lineup. Stubbs isn't getting it done, and Gomes certainly isn't the answer in LF. And it's not like he could do much worse. (Well I guess he could...)

Ok, I would not be giving an unproven rookie a position in the order where they get the majority of the PA/AB. I would give him the playing time in left and down in the order. So the Reds might be able to see what they have for the future before the future gets here, and they repeat and rinse again.

Baker isn’t going to make any significant changes to his personal MO anyway. He talks some form of noise about this or that and goes right on with what he has always done. One can see him coming ten miles down the road from the dust trail he makes with his words. Most of us are creatures of habit.

bucksfan2
05-06-2010, 12:42 PM
I think this team is on pace to score 700-ish runs. Maybe 720.

I think a lineup like this:

Votto
Rolen
Cabrera (yes, really!)
Bruce
Gomes
Phillips
Stubbs
Pitcher
Hanigan

Could score 780-800 runs.

Being somewhat serious I would change your lineup a tad, especially if I have Arroyo or Leake pitching because those two can handle the bat pretty well for a pitcher. The offense is playing OK, but no one is really playing to what they were expected to do so. I think you can say that both Votto and Rolen are underproducing a tad. But at the same time I want to get both Votto and Rolen the most at bats out of anybody. So in an obscure fantasy world here would be my lineup.

Votto
Rolen
Bruce
Cabrera
Phillips
Gomes
Pitcher
Stubbs
Hanigan

Give my 3 most dangerous hitters the most at bats while putting a good OPB guy in front of Votto. I could switch Cabrera and Phillips but I really think hitting clean up goes to BP's head and I don't want that to happen.

No back down to reality right now I probably go.

Cabrera
Phillips
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
LF
Stubbs
Hanigan
P

I would have no issue if you went with the unconventional pitcher batting 8th. I just don't know if it really gives you much of an advantage. If your going with more of a batsman in the leadoff role then I could see it making sense.

Kc61
05-06-2010, 02:20 PM
No back down to reality right now I probably go.

Cabrera
Phillips
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
LF
Stubbs
Hanigan
P

.

Phillips
Cabrera
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
C
LF
Stubbs
P

nate
05-06-2010, 02:48 PM
No back down to reality right now I probably go.

Cabrera
Phillips
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
LF
Stubbs
Hanigan
P

I would have no issue if you went with the unconventional pitcher batting 8th. I just don't know if it really gives you much of an advantage. If your going with more of a batsman in the leadoff role then I could see it making sense.

I'm not sure that's realistic as the SS is hitting first and 2B, second. :cool:

That lineup, according to the tool, would produce 4.691 RPG or 760 runs over a season. That's outpacing the current Reds...in theory, of course.

High five!

TheNext44
05-06-2010, 02:58 PM
You know, had they listened to me and signed Damon this point would be entirely moot. This franchise, man. Day late, dollar short.

I was preaching the same thing. But the Reds came up more a dollar short than a day late, actually, $8M short.

Even if the Reds don't sign Hernandez, Cabrera or Gomes, they still are around $3-4M short of signing Damon.

Ghosts of 1990
05-06-2010, 03:02 PM
I think Stubbs and Cabrera switch..... That's the only change.... or Stubbs hits 7th while the LF protects Bruce batting 5th.

TheNext44
05-06-2010, 03:03 PM
I think this team is on pace to score 700-ish runs. Maybe 720.

I think a lineup like this:

Votto
Rolen
Cabrera (yes, really!)
Bruce
Gomes
Phillips
Stubbs
Pitcher
Hanigan

Could score 780-800 runs.

Showing my work!

I ran the most common lineup, using the player's career numbers through the famous "lineup tool." You can see the results of that here (http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=stubbs&OBA0=.303&Slug0=.386&Player1=cabrera&OBA1=.321&Slug1=.398&Player2=votto&OBA2=+.452&Slug2=.519&Player3=phillips&OBA3=.313&Slug3=.430&Player4=rolen&OBA4=.370&Slug4=.498&Player5=bruce&OBA5=.310&Slug5=.461&Player6=gomes&OBA6=.327&Slug6=.467&Player7=hernandez&OBA7=.327&Slug7=.416&Player8=pitcher&OBA8=+0.212&Slug8=+0.207&Model=0).


Simulated best lineup with those players: 4.933 RPG or 799 runs
Simulated typical lineup with those players this season: 4.674 RPG or 757 runs

Actual performance this year: 4.32 RPG or 700 runs

Then I plugged (http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=votto&OBA0=.452&Slug0=.519&Player1=hanigan&OBA1=.375&Slug1=.360&Player2=rolen&OBA2=.370&Slug2=.498&Player3=gomes&OBA3=.327&Slug3=.467&Player4=bruce&OBA4=.310&Slug4=.461&Player5=phillips&OBA5=.313&Slug5=.430&Player6=cabrera&OBA6=.321&Slug6=.398&Player7=stubbs&OBA7=.303&Slug7=.386&Player8=pitcher&OBA8=.212&Slug8=.207&Model=0) who I thought would be the best players into the lineup tool which is where that list above comes from. Note, the lineup I thought would be good scored 4.847 RPS (785 runs.)

The tool's "best" lineup: 5.02 RPS or 813 runs

The main difference is I used Hanigan instead of Hernandez.

To pre-empt any freakouts, yes, it's a simulation, it's not "real" baseball. This doesn't consider any platoon splits nor does it consider run prevention.

Is there really a difference of 110-ish runs between the best theoretical lineup and what the Reds have put on the field so far this year? Probably not but I think there's some indication here that the Reds could be doing better with what they have.

As everyone knows, I just don't think lineups matter that much. However, I do agree that if you are going to put an effort into constructing the best lineup, Votto should be hitting 1st or 2nd, and Hanigan/Hernandez 9th. I know it sounds counter intuitive, but Votto batting 3rd is a waste, unless the Reds get decent #1 and #2 hitters.

TRF
05-06-2010, 03:04 PM
I used the tool to project my lineup. I used an averag of Hernandez/Hanigan and Heisey's current AAA numbers.

4.9 runs per game.

genius.

TheNext44
05-06-2010, 03:34 PM
BTW, my prediction for Friday is:

Heisey
Phillips
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
Cabrera
Stubbs
C

BRM
05-06-2010, 03:36 PM
My guess as to what Dusty will do tomorrow night:

Cabrera
Phillips
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
Gomes
Stubbs
Hernandez/Hanigan

TRF
05-06-2010, 03:45 PM
Its the Cubs, and no matter what Dusty says and who over there he coached, I believe he's going with people he KNOWS. Gomes will be in the lineup. Stubbs to the 8 hole and OC leads off.

I don't agree with the thinking, but I bet it is what happens. Pretty much how BRM has it laid out.

BRM
05-06-2010, 03:48 PM
Its the Cubs, and no matter what Dusty says and who over there he coached, I believe he's going with people he KNOWS. Gomes will be in the lineup. Stubbs to the 8 hole and OC leads off.

I don't agree with the thinking, but I bet it is what happens. Pretty much how BRM has it laid out.

Yep. 7-8 will go Stubbs/C or C/Stubbs. One or the other. Cabrera and Phillips will hit 1/2. Gomes will continue to be the starter in LF.

Puffy
05-06-2010, 05:03 PM
My line-up would be:

Phillips
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
Cabrera
Hanigan/Hernandez
Gomes/Nix/Heisey
Stubbs/Heisey

Chip R
05-06-2010, 05:13 PM
My line-up would be:

Phillips
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
Cabrera
Hanigan/Hernandez
Gomes/Nix/Heisey
Stubbs/Heisey


That lineup is certainly worth a shot.

Will M
05-06-2010, 05:18 PM
Brandon Phillips seems to really like the #2 spot in the order. Is he getting more fastballs to hit? I would leave him there for now.

1
2 Phillips
3 Votto (L)
4 Rolen
5 Bruce (L)
6
7
8
9 Pitcher

So its the catchers, Cabrera, LF & CF for spots 1, 6, 7 & 8.

My guess is that Dusty bats Cabrera leadoff. Just my opinion: Maybe its my imagination but Cabera seems to like the #6 spot. I wouldn't change that.

reds44
05-06-2010, 05:22 PM
Brandon Phillips seems to really like the #2 spot in the order. Is he getting more fastballs to hit? I would leave him there for now.

1
2 Phillips
3 Votto (L)
4 Rolen
5 Bruce (L)
6
7
8
9 Pitcher

So its the catchers, Cabrera, LF & CF for spots 1, 6, 7 & 8.

My guess is that Dusty bats Cabrera leadoff. Just my opinion: Maybe its my imagination but Cabera seems to like the #6 spot. I wouldn't change that.
If he gets a lot of fastballs hitting 2nd, imagine how many he'd get hitting leadoff.

My lineup:
Phillips
Hanigan
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
Cabrera
Gomes/Nix
Pitcher
Stubbs

forfreelin04
05-06-2010, 05:24 PM
If he gets a lot of fastballs hitting 2nd, imagine how many he'd get hitting leadoff.

My lineup:
Phillips
Hanigan
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
Cabrera
Gomes/Nix
Pitcher
Stubbs

While I love the lineup, can we cut out the pitcher 8th thing? I think Dusty would rather give up toothpicks then mimic Larussa.

reds44
05-06-2010, 05:28 PM
While I love the lineup, can we cut out the pitcher 8th thing? I think Dusty would rather give up toothpicks then mimic Larussa.
Hitting Stubbs in front of the pitcher is just going to cause him to see less fastballs, more breaking balls (which he can't hit), and strikeout even more.

The worst place you can hit a young hitter is 8th in the NL, and I don't think Dusty will bat Gomes 8th.

The Reds need to leave Cabrera in the 6th hole. IMO, even with his horrible numbers, he seems to have the knack of driving in runs from that spot.

Spring~Fields
05-06-2010, 05:34 PM
If he gets a lot of fastballs hitting 2nd, imagine how many he'd get hitting leadoff.

My lineup:
Phillips
Hanigan
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
Cabrera
Gomes/Nix
Pitcher
Stubbs

I kind of like that. I would like to see what a month straight of that would produce. If it produced, then stick with it, if not, modify.

forfreelin04
05-06-2010, 06:22 PM
Hitting Stubbs in front of the pitcher is just going to cause him to see less fastballs, more breaking balls (which he can't hit), and strikeout even more.

The worst place you can hit a young hitter is 8th in the NL, and I don't think Dusty will bat Gomes 8th.

The Reds need to leave Cabrera in the 6th hole. IMO, even with his horrible numbers, he seems to have the knack of driving in runs from that spot.

I disagree. As a pitcher, you'd rather have the opposing pitcher leadoff the next inning. By doing this, your guranteeing an easy out in the next inning. That being the case, the last thing you want to do is walk the eighth hitter. Thus, your going to throw more fastballs to throw strikes instead of burying curveballs in the dirt trying to get someone to chase. Stubbs has the patience of a zen master so the chances of him chasing curveballs is slim, thus he'll get fastballs.

I understand your logic. I'd like to see the percentage of fastballs received from the 8th hitter compared to the 7th. Bet you its close.

forfreelin04
05-06-2010, 06:25 PM
Hitting Stubbs in front of the pitcher is just going to cause him to see less fastballs, more breaking balls (which he can't hit), and strikeout even more.

The worst place you can hit a young hitter is 8th in the NL, and I don't think Dusty will bat Gomes 8th.

The Reds need to leave Cabrera in the 6th hole. IMO, even with his horrible numbers, he seems to have the knack of driving in runs from that spot.

To pile on.... another reason I like Stubbs 8th is because once he gets on 1st it gives you more possibilities as a manager.

If Stubbs is on 1st with less than 2 outs, your pitcher can easily bunt him over. However, he could also steal second and get bunted to 3rd relatively easily. Obviously, he could score from 2nd on a hit to the OF, but if he was on 3rd, he could score by SF and an infield hit.

With Hanigan and Hernandez in the 8th hole, your guranteeing station to station baseball.

RedsManRick
05-06-2010, 06:36 PM
While I love the lineup, can we cut out the pitcher 8th thing? I think Dusty would rather give up toothpicks then mimic Larussa.

So long as you're dreaming, dream big.

TRF
05-06-2010, 06:37 PM
To pile on.... another reason I like Stubbs 8th is because once he gets on 1st it gives you more possibilities as a manager.

If Stubbs is on 1st with less than 2 outs, your pitcher can easily bunt him over. However, he could also steal second and get bunted to 3rd relatively easily. Obviously, he could score from 2nd on a hit to the OF, but if he was on 3rd, he could score by SF and an infield hit.

With Hanigan and Hernandez in the 8th hole, your guranteeing station to station baseball.

And those 400 foot blasts he runs into occasionally are why I like him 6th. He needs to get away from the slap hitter mentality. The spped is an asset, not the main weapon. Let it enhance his game, not BE his game.

That stated, it could be a year or two before he gets to that point. Right now I'm getting a very odd WMP vibe. It's like he can't go down to AAA, not because the rules prevent it, because the Reds made their bed with him. He's still being denied the development he needs.

forfreelin04
05-06-2010, 07:01 PM
And those 400 foot blasts he runs into occasionally are why I like him 6th. He needs to get away from the slap hitter mentality. The spped is an asset, not the main weapon. Let it enhance his game, not BE his game.

That stated, it could be a year or two before he gets to that point. Right now I'm getting a very odd WMP vibe. It's like he can't go down to AAA, not because the rules prevent it, because the Reds made their bed with him. He's still being denied the development he needs.

Nobodys suggesting the man become a slap hitter. That's like telling Lebron to make more layups.

While I agree about his power, I haven't see enough of it to believe he can sustain it; even over a full and productive season. He simply doesn't make enough solid contact to do so. Plus, the mechanics of his swing are so counter productive to power that he'll be lucky to hit one out when he does make contact.

I'm suggesting a different mechanical plate approach to elicit more line drives and contact. If he does that, he should improve his power numbers regardless.

reds44
05-06-2010, 07:25 PM
And those 400 foot blasts he runs into occasionally are why I like him 6th. He needs to get away from the slap hitter mentality. The spped is an asset, not the main weapon. Let it enhance his game, not BE his game.

That stated, it could be a year or two before he gets to that point. Right now I'm getting a very odd WMP vibe. It's like he can't go down to AAA, not because the rules prevent it, because the Reds made their bed with him. He's still being denied the development he needs.
You really want Stubbs batting behind Bruce? I don't.

reds44
05-06-2010, 07:27 PM
I disagree. As a pitcher, you'd rather have the opposing pitcher leadoff the next inning. By doing this, your guranteeing an easy out in the next inning. That being the case, the last thing you want to do is walk the eighth hitter. Thus, your going to throw more fastballs to throw strikes instead of burying curveballs in the dirt trying to get someone to chase. Stubbs has the patience of a zen master so the chances of him chasing curveballs is slim, thus he'll get fastballs.

I understand your logic. I'd like to see the percentage of fastballs received from the 8th hitter compared to the 7th. Bet you its close.
It depends on the situation. If it's 2 out, no on yeah he'd get attacked. But if there's any sort of threat going Stubbs isn't going to see anything remotely good to hit.

Spring~Fields
05-06-2010, 07:49 PM
John Fay
Jocketty also said that Drew Stubbs is not in danger of losing his roster spot. Stubbs is on a current 0-for-11 skid. His average is down to .174 and he’s struck out 30 times in the 92 at-bats.

“He needs to works it out on the major league level,” Jocketty said. “You don’t want him to lose confidence. He does so many other things so well. He needs to be a more selective and patient at the plate.”

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/

Pitches per plate appearance
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batting?team=cin&cat=pitchesPerPlateAppearance&season=2010&split=0&seasonType=2&type=exp

OnBaseMachine
05-06-2010, 07:59 PM
So we have Jocketty saying Stubbs needs to be more selective and patient at the plate (Stubbs is averaging 4.38 P/PA, btw) and then you have Dusty saying Stubbs needs to be more aggressive. Hmmm.

OnBaseMachine
05-06-2010, 08:00 PM
From Fay's blog:


“I don’t think we have anyone in the minors capable of the filling that role,” Jocketty said. “And, frankly, there’s no one available in trade right now. I think we’re going to try to fix it internally. We may be able to do something in trade later.

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/05/06/jocketty-on-the-leadoff-situation/

Will M
05-06-2010, 08:10 PM
Phillips: leadoff or #2?
One factor to consider is whether he feels comfortable in the #2 slot. player's pysches are fragile. batting leadoff might cause him to wig out. thats one reason i would want to keep him in the #2 slot.

same for OC in the #6 slot. seems to work for him.

so if Phillips bats 2nd & OCab hits 6th then who is going to hit leadoff?
Answer: Heisey.
Gomes & Nix have not been tearing it up so far. Dickerson is out for 8 weeks. Heisey is likely to not be worse than Gomes/Nix (fingers crossed) so why not?

So if I were the Reds manager with the current roster this is what i would try:
Heisey
Phillips
Votto (L)
Rolen
Bruce (L)
Cabrera
Hernandez/Hanigan
Stubbs
Pitcher

mth123
05-06-2010, 08:26 PM
My guess as to what Dusty will do tomorrow night:

Cabrera
Phillips
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
Gomes
Stubbs
Hernandez/Hanigan

I think that is what is likely. The time to rethink this was the offseason. I know many took offense, but I still say asleep at the wheel.

wheels
05-06-2010, 10:19 PM
I think that is what is likely. The time to rethink this was the offseason. I know many took offense, but I still say asleep at the wheel.

Agreed.

edabbs44
05-06-2010, 11:24 PM
So we have Jocketty saying Stubbs needs to be more selective and patient at the plate (Stubbs is averaging 4.38 P/PA, btw) and then you have Dusty saying Stubbs needs to be more aggressive. Hmmm.

Could that P/PA number be skewed because he is seeing at least three pitches in a high number of PAs due to his problems making contact?

forfreelin04
05-07-2010, 01:35 AM
I think that is what is likely. The time to rethink this was the offseason. I know many took offense, but I still say asleep at the wheel.

Maybe I give Walt J a longer leash than Wayne or DanO, but I really think if he was asleep at the wheel, it was intentional.

Keep these things in mind going into 2010:

A starting rotation with two albatross contracts: Harang and Arroyo

Two in the starting rotation that were yet to meet their potential but with plenty of time to do so: Cueto and Bailey

A potential TOR starter on the DL: Volquez

A virtual unknown starter with big league stuff and poise: Leake

You also have a huge albatross contract in Cordero.

You have another large to medium size contract: Phillips

Hanigan's bat was largely OBP and AVG driven, hence the pickup of Hernandez

This all being the case, I truly believe that Walt J's peak is next year's offseason. He gets another year to decide on his rotation. To see if Cueto and Bailey get better or worse. He gets to make decisions on Arroyo and Harang. He also has a manager he can choose to resign or not.

I don't think Hernandez will be resigned, leaving some room. Look for one or both of Harang and Arroyo to be dealt mid year or not resigned. All things being equal, I think 2011 is the year he makes his big FA or trade splash. Most likely in LF. By 2011, you might have a stockpile of average to great ML starters and some of them being very young.

These next few months: May and June will provide Walt with a good idea of the direction this team is going. If they force is hand by the deadline, look for that bat to be signed mid-year.

Either way, I look forward to the September days where everyone on this board can partake in conversation about the playoffs. Surely, all of our heated and think-tank discussions will not be all for naught.

forfreelin04
05-07-2010, 01:37 AM
Could that P/PA number be skewed because he is seeing at least three pitches in a high number of PAs due to his problems making contact?

Has to be skewed. Unless my eyes deceive me, Stubbs rarely sees less than 4 pitcher per at bat. He typically has the prowess to at least lay off one pitch outside of the zone before striking out swinging.

Ron Madden
05-07-2010, 04:04 AM
Has to be skewed. Unless my eyes deceive me, Stubbs rarely sees less than 4 pitcher per at bat. He typically has the prowess to at least lay off one pitch outside of the zone before striking out swinging.

Every event during a game is recorded, those events become statistics.

No offense but maybe your eyes are deceiving you.

I apologize forfreelin04, I misread your post

GAC
05-07-2010, 05:22 AM
We currently don't have a lead off hitter in this organization.

This reminds me of the same situation that occurred a few years ago when Baker was manager in Chicago, and when he was jostling Patterson and Hairston back and forth trying to fit a square peg in a round hole in the lead off spot.

OB% is not factor when Baker makes these types of determination.

HokieRed
05-07-2010, 09:09 AM
Has to be skewed. Unless my eyes deceive me, Stubbs rarely sees less than 4 pitcher per at bat. He typically has the prowess to at least lay off one pitch outside of the zone before striking out swinging.

May not take that much prowess if he's consistently behind 0-1. That virtually guarantees he's going to get one pitch significantly outside the zone. Agree 100% with your assessment of WJ's offseason and what I'd consider his probably pragmatic decision to outlive the contracts of Harang and Arroyo and see what we really have in Bailey, Cueto, Volquez before making major moves. I'm less sure than you, however, that we won't see Ramon back next year--and frankly I think he tends to get a bit underrated by lots of RZers, at least as part of a catching duo.

bucksfan2
05-07-2010, 10:28 AM
In regards to the pitcher hitting 8th.

Is there any actual game evidence, not simulations, that this method works better? I heard Chris Welch talking about it saying that there really is no proof either way right now. I think its funny when you watch a game with a manager using that method and you see it work at times and backfire at times.

Right now I think its nothing more than a novilty. I get the concept behind the idea but as much as you want to put a good OBP guy in the the last spot but it also moves up a bad hitter in the lineup.

Cyclone792
05-07-2010, 10:32 AM
In regards to the pitcher hitting 8th.

Is there any actual game evidence, not simulations, that this method works better? I heard Chris Welch talking about it saying that there really is no proof either way right now. I think its funny when you watch a game with a manager using that method and you see it work at times and backfire at times.

Right now I think its nothing more than a novilty. I get the concept behind the idea but as much as you want to put a good OBP guy in the the last spot but it also moves up a bad hitter in the lineup.

LaRussa does it in order to try to maximize baserunners for Pujols while also batting Pujols 3rd instead of 4th. The goal is twofold: get Pujols more PAs during the season by hitting him 3rd instead of 4th, and try to get more baserunners on base for him by batting the pitcher 8th instead of 9th. By batting the pitcher 8th, then Pujols will have three position players batting in front of him each time through the lineup other than his first inning PA.

TRF
05-07-2010, 10:41 AM
You really want Stubbs batting behind Bruce? I don't.

If his approach were changed? Yes. In the minors he always hit better lower in the order. He's a high K, moderate BB guy with some power. The addition of speed potentially makes him a dangerous hitter, but it doesn't make him a leadoff hitter. I think that takes a certain mindset or baseball IQ that he doesn't possess.

Somebody call Chris Chambliss.

bucksfan2
05-07-2010, 10:53 AM
LaRussa does it in order to try to maximize baserunners for Pujols while also batting Pujols 3rd instead of 4th. The goal is twofold: get Pujols more PAs during the season by hitting him 3rd instead of 4th, and try to get more baserunners on base for him by batting the pitcher 8th instead of 9th. By batting the pitcher 8th, then Pujols will have three position players batting in front of him each time through the lineup other than his first inning PA.

Oh yea I know smart Tony's logic. But what he doesn't mention is the impact of batting a pitcher one slot up on the order. You move the pitcher from 9th to 8th and you bring him one slot closer to the better hitters in the order. For example the 5 hitter doubles, 6 and 7 make outs, you now are stuck with your pitcher up with 2 outs. You are also limiting the plate appearances of one of your better OBP guys. Unless you have an offensively loaded team (think Phillies and Dodgers) don't you want to maximize the at bats of your best hitters?

Cyclone792
05-07-2010, 11:00 AM
Oh yea I know smart Tony's logic. But what he doesn't mention is the impact of batting a pitcher one slot up on the order. You move the pitcher from 9th to 8th and you bring him one slot closer to the better hitters in the order. For example the 5 hitter doubles, 6 and 7 make outs, you now are stuck with your pitcher up with 2 outs. You are also limiting the plate appearances of one of your better OBP guys. Unless you have an offensively loaded team (think Phillies and Dodgers) don't you want to maximize the at bats of your best hitters?

In that specific scenario you outlined, most opposing teams would just pitch around an 8th hitting position player, likely walk him or let him hack at a bad pitch that he can't do anything with. That 8th batter either likely gets himself out on a bad pitch or walks to first, which puts the pitcher up anyway who would then most likely end the inning with an out.

Also, you do not necessarily want to put one of your better OBP guys 9th anyway. Think more of a guy who would just hit 7th or 8th in a regular lineup, not a guy who'd hit at the top or middle of the order.

nate
05-07-2010, 11:21 AM
Oh yea I know smart Tony's logic. But what he doesn't mention is the impact of batting a pitcher one slot up on the order. You move the pitcher from 9th to 8th and you bring him one slot closer to the better hitters in the order. For example the 5 hitter doubles, 6 and 7 make outs, you now are stuck with your pitcher up with 2 outs.

The pitcher can be in the 9-spot and come up with 2 outs just as frequently.


You are also limiting the plate appearances of one of your better OBP guys.

The Reds (and most other teams) do this anyhow.

With Hanigan (I think he's the most likely candidate for this position) batting 9th, I think you give him a chance to hit in front of better hitters rather than pitchers...although on the Reds, it's hard to tell the difference sometimes. With a guy who gets on-base well but doesn't slug much, I think the 9-spot is a good place because it gives him a chance to set up the guys who should be leading off - the guys who are good on-base and slugging dudes.


Unless you have an offensively loaded team (think Phillies and Dodgers) don't you want to maximize the at bats of your best hitters?

I do. I'm not sure Dusty Baker and a slew of other managers do. They seem to want to maximize the ABs of their fastest hitters.

I think a lot of the resistance to these "new" ideas in the lineup would disappear if we'd stop shoehorning players into lineup roles that aren't really necessary. Every player's role should be "dont make an out and take as many bases as possible." Stacking the lineup for a game situation that might or might not occur doesn't make any sense. Give your best hitters the most number of chances to succeed and you'll score more runs and win more games over the course of a season. AND you'll end up being more successful in those "small ball" situations because the likelihood of having a good hitter at the plate increases.

AND I'll look smart: WIN, WIN, WIN! :cool:

It's almost like managers think it's a bad thing to put your best hitter in the leadoff and having him hit a HR in his first PA. Like somehow, that HR is "wasted" more than if your "speedy" guy with a .310 OBP made an out to leadoff. If you have a guy who does get on base a lot and is speedy, great! Get him up there and let him do his thing. The Reds don't have that guy so they should stop trying to hope they do and go on to plan B.

Anyhow, looks (http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/fay_brandon_phillips_to_leadoff_spot/#When:12:01:34Z) like it will be BP...no comment.

Falls City Beer
05-07-2010, 12:53 PM
I usually don't single Dusty out as a problem, but boy is he pushing it by continuing to lead off with Stubbs (see lineup card 5/7). Against an off-speed pitcher as well. I'd understand it against Zambrano and his perfunctory first fastball right over the center of the plate, but Silva's going to give him nothing but 75 MPH sliders and changes on the outside part of the plate, which are death to Stubbs.

Spring~Fields
05-07-2010, 12:55 PM
We currently don't have a lead off hitter in this organization.


OB% is not factor when Baker makes these types of determination.

What's OB% with this organization?
I don't see any that makes a difference, not named Votto, especially against right handed pitching.

OB% doesn't seem to have been something of interest or a priority for this organization.

I think the guys that put the roster together decided to pass on OB%, as it has been an ongoing theme now for some time.

Either that or the players don't fit the managers hitting instructions and approach.




Career 07-10 L 3 Yr 3 Yr vs RH 3 Yr vs LH
Nix .276 .229 .276 .287 .184
Janish .295 .316 .290 .273 .328
Stubbs .303 .295 .323 .320 .333
Cabrera .306 .321 .332 .326 .348
Bruce .310 .312 .309 .320 .285
Cairo .313 .257 .308 .294 .333
Phillips.313 .324 .324 .310 .361
Gomes .327 .297 .320 .307 .341
Hernandz.327 .341 .324 .322 .328
Rolen .370 .348 .351 .340 .381
Votto .390 .390 .388 .394 .375
Hanigan .375 .393 .363 .372 .336


Walt Jocketty/Dusty Baker's Cincinnati Reds
2008 OBP .321 ranked 25th RS 704 ranked 24th 4.34 RPG
2009 OBP .318 ranked 28th RS 673 ranked 24th 4.15 RPG
2010 OBP .314 ranked 25th RS 121 ranked 20th RS projects 700 4.32 RPG

Improvement ???

Run support for the pitching?


I think that is what is likely. The time to rethink this was the offseason. I know many took offense, but I still say asleep at the wheel.


This reminds me of the same situation that occurred a few years ago when Baker was manager in Chicago, and when he was jostling Patterson and Hairston back and forth trying to fit a square peg in a round hole in the lead off spot.

Some guys overlook the obvious or don't learn from their mistakes ???


So long as you're dreaming, dream big.

Spring~Fields
05-07-2010, 01:05 PM
Give your best hitters the most number of chances to succeed and you'll score more runs and win more games over the course of a season. AND you'll end up being more successful in those "small ball" situations because the likelihood of having a good hitter at the plate increases.

AND I'll look smart: WIN, WIN, WIN! :cool:


What if they don't have them?

What if your best hitters aren't good enough?



The Reds don't have that guy so they should stop trying to hope they do and go on to plan B.


Go on to plan C ?

.500 .500 .500 or below ? :cool:

dougdirt
05-07-2010, 01:07 PM
What if they don't have them?

What if your best hitters aren't good enough?


It is still better than your hitters that aren't good enough batting in a lesser optimized lineup, which will lead to fewer runs scored and theoretically at least, fewer wins.

BRM
05-07-2010, 01:10 PM
nm

Spring~Fields
05-07-2010, 01:13 PM
It is still better than your hitters that aren't good enough batting in a lesser optimized lineup, which will lead to fewer runs scored and theoretically at least, fewer wins.

I agree it should be. I don't think that the man running the team agrees with us though. How many times can fans try to write a work around for the managers way of doing things? Too many of the fans suggestions have manipulations within them to try to work around the manager. Something needs to change, either the fans or the manager. :)



John Fay
A good portion of Reds manager Dusty Baker's off day Thursday was going to be spent on the homework.

"That's why I'm taking this with me," Baker said, referring to a thick binder stuffed with stats and scouting reports.

Baker's assignment is to find a solution for the leadoff spot.

The Reds are last in the majors in on-base percentage (.228) and batting average (.149) from the No. 1 spot in the batting order.


http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20100506/SPT04/305050008/1071/Phillips+to+leadoff+spot?


Originally Posted by mth123
The time to rethink this was the offseason. I know many took offense, but I still say asleep at the wheel.

Spring~Fields
05-07-2010, 01:26 PM
So much for that.

Next

Ok bring on Plan D :D

RichRed
05-07-2010, 01:34 PM
(see lineup card 5/7)

Forgive my ignorance - where are you seeing this?

RedsManRick
05-07-2010, 01:50 PM
I usually don't single Dusty out as a problem, but boy is he pushing it by continuing to lead off with Stubbs (see lineup card 5/7). Against an off-speed pitcher as well. I'd understand it against Zambrano and his perfunctory first fastball right over the center of the plate, but Silva's going to give him nothing but 75 MPH sliders and changes on the outside part of the plate, which are death to Stubbs.

Dusty's logic is simple:

Priority #1: Don't rock the boat
Priority #2: See Priority #1
Priority #3: Bat the fastest guy in the lineup leadoff.

Falls City Beer
05-07-2010, 01:53 PM
Forgive my ignorance - where are you seeing this?

The Sun Deck. Though maybe it isn't legit.

Edit: never mind. It would help if I checked the date on a post--I misread; it was the lineup card for 5/1/10. Apologies.

membengal
05-07-2010, 01:53 PM
Patient: Doctor, it hurts when I hit myself in the head with a hammer.

Doctor: Stop doing that!

membengal
05-07-2010, 01:57 PM
By the by, I have not been beset with the usual bevy of tweets from C. Trent, Fay, or Sheldon with line-up and batting order, so perhaps someone on Sun Deck jumped the gun.

BRM
05-07-2010, 01:59 PM
The Sun Deck. Though maybe it isn't legit.

Edit: never mind. It would help if I checked the date on a post--I misread; it was the lineup card for 5/1/10. Apologies.

In that case, I should edit my post...

RichRed
05-07-2010, 02:04 PM
The Sun Deck. Though maybe it isn't legit.

Edit: never mind. It would help if I checked the date on a post--I misread; it was the lineup card for 5/1/10. Apologies.

No worries. I was just starting to think I needed a secret Nintendo code to find it because I was having no luck.

edabbs44
05-07-2010, 02:07 PM
Dusty will be here from 2-3 pm to accept apologies.

TheNext44
05-07-2010, 03:30 PM
In regards to the pitcher hitting 8th.

Is there any actual game evidence, not simulations, that this method works better? I heard Chris Welch talking about it saying that there really is no proof either way right now. I think its funny when you watch a game with a manager using that method and you see it work at times and backfire at times.

Right now I think its nothing more than a novilty. I get the concept behind the idea but as much as you want to put a good OBP guy in the the last spot but it also moves up a bad hitter in the lineup.

What Welsh said was that teams that use it do score more runs when the use it than when they don't, but don't win more games. Which is a silly way to look at it. If the team scores more runs with it, than use it. Over time, the team will win more games.

One main reason for batting the pitcher 8th that has not been mentioned yet is that in most meaningful situations, the pitcher is pinch hit for, regardless of where he is batting in the order. So we really are only talking about maybe two AB's a game, early in the game.

Redsfan320
05-07-2010, 03:46 PM
It's Cabrera. Stubbs will hit 7th tonight. From Jamie Ramsey's blog.

320

BRM
05-07-2010, 03:48 PM
My guess as to what Dusty will do tomorrow night:

Cabrera
Phillips
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
Gomes
Stubbs
Hernandez/Hanigan

Do I win a cookie?

TRF
05-07-2010, 03:50 PM
So he's replacing an awful OBP with merely a terrible one.

BRM
05-07-2010, 03:51 PM
So he's replacing an awful OBP with merely a terrible one.

You're surprised? You knew it was going to be either Cabrera or Phillips.

alexad
05-07-2010, 03:52 PM
So you take one of your best RBI guys and put him in the leadoff. Dusty has not a clue!! I like PHillips batting leadoff, but how can you take your clean up hitter that you man love and make him a leadoff hitter. Of course Phillips really has not been hitting yet this year.

TRF
05-07-2010, 03:52 PM
stunned actually, considering how Dusty seems to prize speed at the top and Cabrera is, well, not that.

Cyclone792
05-07-2010, 03:52 PM
You're surprised? You knew it was going to be either Cabrera or Phillips.

What's going to be even more interesting is seeing how Cabrera plays out in center field.

:evil:

RichRed
05-07-2010, 03:53 PM
So he's replacing an awful OBP with merely a terrible one.

He studied that big folder of stats and scouting reports for his "homework" and this is the result. I give it a D+.

TRF
05-07-2010, 03:54 PM
So you take one of your best RBI guys and put him in the leadoff. Dusty has not a clue!! I like PHillips batting leadoff, but how can you take your clean up hitter that you man love and make him a leadoff hitter. Of course Phillips really has not been hitting yet this year.

Well, if I had Votto, Rolen and Bruce in front of me for the last week or so, I'd be seeing a lot of RBI opportunities too. His OPS is .668. He's not exactly killing the ball.

pedro
05-07-2010, 03:56 PM
It's not like the reds really have a lot of options for lead off. it is what it is.

BRM
05-07-2010, 03:59 PM
It's not like the reds really have a lot of options for lead off. it is what it is.

Very true.

TRF
05-07-2010, 04:03 PM
Well, I'd err on the side of youth. Heisey in LF and bat him leadoff for one game. At least the OF defense should be stellar.

Will M
05-07-2010, 04:04 PM
there was NO way Dusty was going to bat the catchers in the #2 hole. so Phillips-catcher 1-2 was out.

i am actually ok with Cabrera as the leadoff man as it leaves Phillips in the #2 hole where he has hit very well. just leave him there forever if he feels comfortable there.

if the team can get a real leadoff hitter at some point then just drop Cabrera back to the #6 spot.

edabbs44
05-07-2010, 04:06 PM
Well, I'd err on the side of youth. Heisey in LF and bat him leadoff for one game. At least the OF defense should be stellar.

No shot.

Will M
05-07-2010, 04:07 PM
Well, if I had Votto, Rolen and Bruce in front of me for the last week or so, I'd be seeing a lot of RBI opportunities too. His OPS is .668. He's not exactly killing the ball.

BP's OPS is up to 756 (OPS+ of 98). he has gained ~100 points of OPS in about a week. thats why i say leave him where he is.

TRF
05-07-2010, 04:08 PM
I'd just drop Cabrera. :)

I've been mulling this around my head. The reason Cabrera was brought in was for depth, with Janish being the depth instead of the starter. And Dusty/Walt probably didn't think SS should be manned by Janish with his limited history. Now, I think Janish as the starter with Sutton as the backup is a better offense/defense combo, but that may just be me.

Now we have a poor defensive player that has trouble finding 1B leading off. Its a double whammy of bad.

TRF
05-07-2010, 04:10 PM
No shot.

Not disagreeing, but I'd have Heisey 1st, Janish 8th or 9th.

I bet that team could win some games. I'm tired of Gomes and Cabrera.

pedro
05-07-2010, 04:13 PM
I'd just drop Cabrera. :)

I've been mulling this around my head. The reason Cabrera was brought in was for depth, with Janish being the depth instead of the starter. And Dusty/Walt probably didn't think SS should be manned by Janish with his limited history. Now, I think Janish as the starter with Sutton as the backup is a better offense/defense combo, but that may just be me.

Now we have a poor defensive player that has trouble finding 1B leading off. Its a double whammy of bad.


The reason Cabrera was brought in is because Janish struggled to hit .200 last year.


And Sutton? He's a worse defensive SS than Cabrera.

TRF
05-07-2010, 04:17 PM
The reason Cabrera was brought in is because Janish struggled to hit .200 last year.


And Sutton? He's a worse defensive SS than Cabrera.

True, but i wouldn't be starting him.

Janish could not produce less than Cabrera has this year. not overall.

TheNext44
05-07-2010, 04:17 PM
Less concerned about who bats where than I am about Gomes still playing ahead of Heisey. Why is Heisey here if he is going to sit on the bench? He can't be worse than Gomes against RH.

Chip R
05-07-2010, 04:18 PM
How is Cabrera going to get his RBIs from the leadoff spot? :eek:

Strikes Out Looking
05-07-2010, 04:22 PM
How is Cabrera going to get his RBIs from the leadoff spot? :eek:

Actually, the 8th and 9th spot (catchers and pitchers) have a decent batting average--he'll get plenty of chances.

Chip R
05-07-2010, 04:26 PM
I have to give Dusty his due. It only took him a month this season to realize that CF does not always have to lead off no matter how low his OBP is.

lollipopcurve
05-07-2010, 04:30 PM
Less concerned about who bats where than I am about Gomes still playing ahead of Heisey. Why is Heisey here if he is going to sit on the bench? He can't be worse than Gomes against RH.

We'll see how it plays out, but apparently Baker is a big Gomes booster. They're from the same neck of the woods.

Wouldn't surprise me if Heisey, like Janish, is in the deep freeze.

edabbs44
05-07-2010, 04:31 PM
Not disagreeing, but I'd have Heisey 1st, Janish 8th or 9th.

I bet that team could win some games. I'm tired of Gomes and Cabrera.

But this team has already won some games. You can be tired of Gomes and Cabrera, but I wonder how tired we would get of the other 2 over time.

Brutus
05-07-2010, 04:32 PM
It's not like the reds really have a lot of options for lead off. it is what it is.

Agreed.

I'm completely surprised by all the hand-wringing on this. People wanted Stubbs out of the leadoff spot. I'm not sure what they expected when they got their wish.

Other than Ryan Hanigan - which was never going to happen - what options were there really?

RichRed
05-07-2010, 04:38 PM
Cabrera has a career OBP of .311 in the leadoff spot. Reds Fever - catch it!

KronoRed
05-07-2010, 04:41 PM
Do I win a cookie?

No.


You get cake.

TRF
05-07-2010, 04:42 PM
But this team has already won some games. You can be tired of Gomes and Cabrera, but I wonder how tired we would get of the other 2 over time.

It's like turning the stove on high and putting your hand on it. Instead of not doing that anymore Dust turns the stove to medium high and tries again.


Still hurts.

Heisey could be the same thing, but we don't know what he is. The Reds thought enough of this young player to bring him up over JF, Dorn and Frazier.

So why not play him?

RichRed
05-07-2010, 04:43 PM
Agreed.

I'm completely surprised by all the hand-wringing on this. People wanted Stubbs out of the leadoff spot. I'm not sure what they expected when they got their wish.

Other than Ryan Hanigan - which was never going to happen - what options were there really?

Despite the snark in my previous post, I actually agree. Phillips has almost no experience in the leadoff spot, and he seems somewhat comfortable at #2. Cabrera at least has 1100 PAs in the leadoff spot, unimpressive though they may be. And like you said, Hanigan just wasn't going to happen.

Rather see Nix, or give Heisey a shot, than Gomes against a righty though.

pedro
05-07-2010, 04:50 PM
True, but i wouldn't be starting him.

Janish could not produce less than Cabrera has this year. not overall.

Sure he could. His upside is roughly what Cabrera is doing now and the chances of him doing better are slim at best.

By the way, Drew Sutton's OPS at AAA is a nifty .544

TRF
05-07-2010, 04:52 PM
Sure he could. His upside is roughly what Cabrera is doing now and the chances of him doing better are slim at best.

I disagree. His upside is one of the better defenders at SS in the NL. His offensive upside might be what Cabrera is doing now, or he could be more.

In this case, I'll take the defense.

Bumstead
05-07-2010, 04:58 PM
I disagree. His upside is one of the better defenders at SS in the NL. His offensive upside might be what Cabrera is doing now, or he could be more.

In this case, I'll take the defense.

Here we go...Janish now has upside? Since when? He hasn't hit in the minors or the majors and now he has upside...ha He's 27, move on...

Lead-off hitter? The Reds have nothing for that spot...Best person for it is Votto, but he shouldn't be there and the next two are Hanigan/Hernandez...really? Just put Cabrera there at least until Dickerson gets back and move on. IMHO

Bum

TRF
05-07-2010, 05:03 PM
His offense might be weak. It hasn't in the limited playing time he's gotten this year, and in ST, but sure, he might be a .220 hitter with no power.

And he'd STILL be an upgrade over Cabrera.

pedro
05-07-2010, 05:05 PM
His offensive upside might be what Cabrera is doing now, or he could be more.



I'm speechless.

pedro
05-07-2010, 05:06 PM
One question TRF, do you have the MLB baseball package or MLB.tv?

Just curious.

edabbs44
05-07-2010, 05:07 PM
His offense might be weak. It hasn't in the limited playing time he's gotten this year, and in ST, but sure, he might be a .220 hitter with no power.

And he'd STILL be an upgrade over Cabrera.

Really doubtful.

Spring~Fields
05-07-2010, 05:07 PM
I'm guessing we'll just see OCab to #1 and BP back to #2. I'd definitely prefer to see Hanigan moved up, but there's no way that happens. Stubbs will bat 7th in front of Hanigan or 8th behind Hernandez if I had to bet.

Close enough!!

Someone here has done their Dusty homework. :)

Spring~Fields
05-07-2010, 05:13 PM
Do I win a cookie?

I think that you should get credit for being right. :thumbup:

Spring~Fields
05-07-2010, 05:18 PM
It's not like the reds really have a lot of options for lead off. it is what it is.

I think that you're right. I might have missed it, (what's new there) but, I don't see multiple options for anywhere really.

Brutus
05-07-2010, 05:19 PM
Do I win a cookie?

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_53oMB4-fxXM/SVZZdJntnPI/AAAAAAAAAAM/vXEtrdBFtqI/s1600-R/cookie.gif

TheNext44
05-07-2010, 05:20 PM
I have to give Dusty his due. It only took him his entire managerial career to realize that CF does not always have to lead off no matter how low his OBP is.

The whole SS hits second is a myth, but the CF has hit leadoff in over 90% of Baker's lineups over his career.

This is an earth-shattering move for him.

_Sir_Charles_
05-07-2010, 05:21 PM
Here we go...Janish now has upside? Since when? He hasn't hit in the minors or the majors and now he has upside...ha He's 27, move on...

Lead-off hitter? The Reds have nothing for that spot...Best person for it is Votto, but he shouldn't be there and the next two are Hanigan/Hernandez...really? Just put Cabrera there at least until Dickerson gets back and move on. IMHO

Bum

Yes, he said he has upside....DEFENSIVELY! As for offensively...it's an unknown at this point IMO. Yes, he struggled at the plate in the second half of last year. I'd say that counts as a small sample size. He has another small sample size from ST & the beginning of this season that suggests he "could" hit in the bigs.

That leaves me with 3 knowns and 1 unknown. Cabrera can't defend, his hitting is trending downward, Janish CAN defend. 3 knowns. Janish's bat is the unknown. The lack of power is certainly a known I'd say. But he doesn't strike out much, he draws a decent number of walks, he's shown he can hit for a middling average (.250 ish) and he's CURRENTLY hitting well. I'll take the hot bat and quality glove. If it turns out the bat was a mirage...we can always move back to Cabrera. I just don't understand sitting a guy who's swinging a good bat for one who's costing us runs with the glove.

Spring~Fields
05-07-2010, 05:26 PM
Less concerned about who bats where than I am about Gomes still playing ahead of Heisey. Why is Heisey here if he is going to sit on the bench? He can't be worse than Gomes against RH.

Pick One: :)
A. He's too young
B. He doesn't have enough experience
C. He doesn't get paid enough
D. He might be good and make the decision makers look bad for bringing in the fodder and paying them more
E. If they let him sit long enough he will lose his edge and prove them right by eventually looking like Dickerson or Janish at the plate.
F. Dusty has a bias even though others denounce it with a passion.
G. All the above.

Or
H. Legitimate reasons, none of the above.

:oops: I had to take my shoes and socks off to get my A B C 's right.

TheNext44
05-07-2010, 05:26 PM
I disagree. His upside is one of the better defenders at SS in the NL. His offensive upside might be what Cabrera is doing now, or he could be more.

In this case, I'll take the defense.

I posted this in another thread, but I think this backs up your opinion.


I think that the difference would be around 50 OPS at best, and I actually think Janish could out perform Cabrera offensively if given the chance to play every day.

First, you need to look at how Cabrera has regressed over the last three years.

2007 - .345 OBP
2008 - .334 OBP
2009 - .316 OBP
2010 - .286 OBP

I really think that Cabrera will put up numbers very similar to what he's put up so far over the whole season. Maybe in between .650- .675 OPS, but I think his days of reaching .700 OPS are over.

Janish last year, when he started every day, put up these numbers:

.217 .304 .349 .653

Not very good, but really right around what Cabrera is doing now. When you factor in the hot streak that he has been on since spring training, I think there is enough evidence to believe that he could reach .700 OPS if he was playing every day.

nate
05-07-2010, 05:27 PM
Yes, he said he has upside....DEFENSIVELY! As for offensively...it's an unknown at this point IMO. Yes, he struggled at the plate in the second half of last year. I'd say that counts as a small sample size. He has another small sample size from ST & the beginning of this season that suggests he "could" hit in the bigs.

Actually, he doesn't really have defensive upside; I think we know he's an excellent defender and that won't really change much.

Nor do I think he's an unknown at the plate. He's not good with the bat and he's not really going to be much better.

The question is, is his net game better than Cabrera's net game?

I think it's close to equal.

edabbs44
05-07-2010, 05:32 PM
Pick One: :)
A. He's too young
B. He doesn't have enough experience
C. He doesn't get paid enough
D. He might be good and make the decision makers look bad for bringing in the fodder and paying them more
E. If they let him sit long enough he will lose his edge and prove them right by eventually looking like Dickerson or Janish at the plate.
F. Dusty has a bias even though others denounce it with a passion.
F. All the above.

Or
G. Legitimate reasons, none of the above.

How about that he's here because the major league team needs depth due to injuries and he was the best option in the minors but not the best option in the majors?

_Sir_Charles_
05-07-2010, 05:36 PM
Actually, he doesn't really have defensive upside; I think we know he's an excellent defender and that won't really change much.

Nor do I think he's an unknown at the plate. He's not good with the bat and he's not really going to be much better.

The question is, is his net game better than Cabrera's net game?

I think it's close to equal.

I guess defensive UPGRADE would be a better wording of it.

As for the bat, HOW do we know that? If you look at the whole career totals for Janish...yeah, I'd say he swings a noodle. But the 20'ish doubles last year in limited time plus his outstanding ST and his outstanding start to this year gives me some optimism that he may be one of those guys whos hitting improves later in his career and against MLB pitching. But regardless, he's had a hot bat...why put that to sleep? The defense isn't going to change much from game to game.

Some here might claim that the 20 doubles last year were an aberration. Some might claim that ST stats should be tossed out the window. But even if those are true, let's look at the stats from this year so far. 19 ab's, 3 doubles, 1 hr, 5 rbis, 2 walks, .316/.381/.632/1.013. In all of that, the stat that jumps out at me isn't the homerun or the doubles or the rbi's or even the 1.013 ops...it's the 19 ab's. That's ridiculous IMO. I'm not suggesting a complete swap of starter & backup positions. But rather a more 50-50 split at least.

Spring~Fields
05-07-2010, 05:39 PM
How is Cabrera going to get his RBIs from the leadoff spot? :eek:

Batting after Hanigan and Leake in the lineup, and against left handed pitching.

pedro
05-07-2010, 05:39 PM
Yes, he said he has upside....DEFENSIVELY! As for offensively...it's an unknown at this point IMO. Yes, he struggled at the plate in the second half of last year. I'd say that counts as a small sample size. He has another small sample size from ST & the beginning of this season that suggests he "could" hit in the bigs.

That leaves me with 3 knowns and 1 unknown. Cabrera can't defend, his hitting is trending downward, Janish CAN defend. 3 knowns. Janish's bat is the unknown. The lack of power is certainly a known I'd say. But he doesn't strike out much, he draws a decent number of walks, he's shown he can hit for a middling average (.250 ish) and he's CURRENTLY hitting well. I'll take the hot bat and quality glove. If it turns out the bat was a mirage...we can always move back to Cabrera. I just don't understand sitting a guy who's swinging a good bat for one who's costing us runs with the glove.

Because Janish isn't going to hit and while Cabrera has struggled he'll likely improve on that as the season progresses.

If you take out a "hot" august for Janish where he OPS'd a smoking .683 I think you'll get a much clearer picture of what he is offensively.


By Day/Month AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
April 14 2 5 1 0 0 2 0 2 3 0 0 .357 .438 .429 .867
May 26 3 7 2 0 0 1 3 0 4 0 0 .269 .345 .346 .691
June 27 4 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 8 0 0 .148 .179 .185 .364
July 17 2 3 0 0 0 0 4 0 5 0 0 .176 .333 .176 .509
August 70 7 17 6 0 1 8 7 0 6 0 0 .243 .312 .371 .683
September 93 16 17 10 0 0 4 9 3 14 1 0 .183 .276 .290 .566
October 9 2 1 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 0 .111 .273 .222 .495

Pre All-Star 78 10 18 4 0 0 3 7 2 18 0 0 .231 .310 .282 .592
Post All-Star 178 26 36 17 0 1 13 19 3 22 2 0 .202 .290 .315 .605

Kc61
05-07-2010, 05:44 PM
The argument for Janish would be a lot stronger if the team had another legitimate bat in the lineup. As things stand, it makes sense to go with Cabrera's bat.

Janish, even with his 21 doubles last year, had a .601 OPS. Even if he improved modestly, the Reds don't have enough lumber to offset his bat.

Cabrera is a versatile hitter who can hit in RBI spots and at the top of the order. He's certainly not a star at this stage, maybe never was, but he's a better offensive player and makes the routine plays smoothly. He lacks range, yes.

_Sir_Charles_
05-07-2010, 05:50 PM
Because Janish isn't going to hit and while Cabrera has struggled he'll likely improve on that as the season progresses. Even though he's regressed each of the past 4 years? How do we know Cabrera will improve? The same way we KNOW Janish won't?


If you take out a "hot" august for Janish where he OPS'd a smoking .683 I think you'll get a much clearer picture of what he is offensively.

I think that shows you a much clearer picture of where he WAS offensively. Not where he IS offensively. Besides, the question isn't really how well he will hit. It's how much does he have to hit to justify his glove? I'm not versed in the saber stats, but someone here was posting that stat that shows how many wins a player was worth and IIRC it showed Janish with a considerable edge over Cabrera. I could easily be wrong there, but I'm really not sure what I should look up to check it. Sorry.

nate
05-07-2010, 05:55 PM
I guess defensive UPGRADE would be a better wording of it.

As for the bat, HOW do we know that?

Because nothing in his major or minor league career indicates he'll be good with the bat.


Some here might claim that the 20 doubles last year were an aberration. Some might claim that ST stats should be tossed out the window. But even if those are true, let's look at the stats from this year so far. 19 ab's, 3 doubles, 1 hr, 5 rbis, 2 walks, .316/.381/.632/1.013. In all of that, the stat that jumps out at me isn't the homerun or the doubles or the rbi's or even the 1.013 ops...it's the 19 ab's. That's ridiculous IMO. I'm not suggesting a complete swap of starter & backup positions. But rather a more 50-50 split at least.

I would guess that the vast majority of every player with as many major league ABs as Paul Janish has a similar stretch of 19 ABs. A stretch where they looked awesome and made folks wonder "why isn't this guy starting?"

I would further guess that, in each instance, the answer to that question was found by extending the window around those 19 ABs a couple hundred ABs.

I like Paul Janish. I think he _should_ be the starter but I don't expect him to be much better than he is based on a handful of ABs. It's nice to hope that, but it's unlikely to happen.

Bumstead
05-07-2010, 05:56 PM
Actually, he doesn't really have defensive upside; I think we know he's an excellent defender and that won't really change much.

Nor do I think he's an unknown at the plate. He's not good with the bat and he's not really going to be much better.

Actually, I agree with Nate here to the extent that I left quoted. Janish hasn't hit since he was born and TRF said he had upside OFFENSIVELY of O-Cab....I don't think there is any reason in the world to think something like that. Janish is what he is, it's not changing because he had a good spring.

Personally, I think O-Cab is still a better option overall. Of course, he's the one playing now, so he's the one that gets bashed. If Janish was playing and hitting .210 with his standard .575 OPS you would be asking why O-Cab isn't playing. It's not going to matter, someone is getting bashed even if he's the best option available.

Bum

nate
05-07-2010, 05:58 PM
Even though he's regressed each of the past 4 years? How do we know Cabrera will improve? The same way we KNOW Janish won't?

Cabrera's bat is likely to improve toward his career numbers but he still will probably be hovering around a .700 OPS.

Janish, at his best is maybe above a .660 OPS.


I think that shows you a much clearer picture of where he WAS offensively. Not where he IS offensively. Besides, the question isn't really how well he will hit. It's how much does he have to hit to justify his glove? I'm not versed in the saber stats, but someone here was posting that stat that shows how many wins a player was worth and IIRC it showed Janish with a considerable edge over Cabrera. I could easily be wrong there, but I'm really not sure what I should look up to check it. Sorry.

Well, that's the question. Does one "spend" .040 of OPS to improve the glovework up the middle?

Spring~Fields
05-07-2010, 05:58 PM
Less concerned about who bats where than I am about Gomes still playing ahead of Heisey. Why is Heisey here if he is going to sit on the bench? He can't be worse than Gomes against RH.

Next,

Is there anyway to tell if Heisey can field better than Gomes or Nix? Could he hit for a higher OBP than they do. Can Heisey bat down in the order and maybe be successful ? Do you think Heisey could do those

TRF
05-07-2010, 06:00 PM
The argument for Janish would be a lot stronger if the team had another legitimate bat in the lineup. As things stand, it makes sense to go with Cabrera's bat.

Janish, even with his 21 doubles last year, had a .601 OPS. Even if he improved modestly, the Reds don't have enough lumber to offset his bat.

Cabrera is a versatile hitter who can hit in RBI spots and at the top of the order. He's certainly not a star at this stage, maybe never was, but he's a better offensive player and makes the routine plays smoothly. He lacks range, yes.

Cabrera is a legitimate bat?

Is it suddenly 2004?

OnBaseMachine
05-07-2010, 06:07 PM
If you were to read this board and not look at the stats you would think Cabrera was OPSing .850. He's getting on base at a .292 clip while OPSing .668 while playing awful defense. I like Cabrera, he seems like a great dude and was a very good player in his younger days, but you simply can't have a defensive liability at shortstop, IMO. It's arguably the most important defensive position on the field. Why make things tougher on the pitching staff by continually running a range challenged guy out there at SS every night?

pedro
05-07-2010, 06:08 PM
Even though he's regressed each of the past 4 years? How do we know Cabrera will improve? The same way we KNOW Janish won't?



I think that shows you a much clearer picture of where he WAS offensively. Not where he IS offensively. Besides, the question isn't really how well he will hit. It's how much does he have to hit to justify his glove? I'm not versed in the saber stats, but someone here was posting that stat that shows how many wins a player was worth and IIRC it showed Janish with a considerable edge over Cabrera. I could easily be wrong there, but I'm really not sure what I should look up to check it. Sorry.

That was just last year. How exactly did he make a quantum leap in the off season?

He IS what he WAS. A guy who will struggle to OPS .600 in the majors.

Yes, Cabrera isn't what he once was but he is playing in an easier league in a hitters park so I would not be surprised at all if he OPS'd .750 this year.

The second half of LAST YEAR his line was .308/.336/.439/.775 in 305 AB's

Janish is NEVER going to even come close to that.

_Sir_Charles_
05-07-2010, 06:12 PM
Because nothing in his major or minor league career indicates he'll be good with the bat.

I'll readily admit that I didn't follow the minor leagues even remotely closely until about 2 to 3 years ago. So I missed Janish's minor league career for the most part. But looking at the numbers, I don't see stats indicating a wet noodle for a bat.

I couldn't find his college numbers, but some stuff on his wiki page raised my eyebrows some. At Rice, he hit .299 one year and .345 another with 9 dingers.

2004: .263 in 66 games. MVP of the florida instructional league.
2005: .245 in 55 games. Lost half the season to tommy john surgury
2006: .278 with 9 hr in 91 games. 4th best K% in league at Sarasota.
2007: "When he was promoted on July 8, he ranked second in the Southern League (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_League_%28baseball%29) in doubles (21) and 5th among all Double-A players in walks (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_on_balls) (50). Following the season, his strike zone discipline was rated by Baseball America as the best in the organization."
2008: "Janish began the season with Louisville, hitting .293 in 35 games (4 hr, 20 rbi) before being promoted"

Now, I'm no expert...but I see lots of things in there that show me he knows how to hit and could at the major league level if given a chance. That 2 month trial run at the end of last season could be the aberration.

I see a history of solid doubles numbers throughout his minors career.


I would guess that the vast majority of every player with as many major league ABs as Paul Janish has a similar stretch of 19 ABs. A stretch where they looked awesome and made folks wonder "why isn't this guy starting?"

I would further guess that, in each instance, the answer to that question was found by extending the window around those 19 ABs a couple hundred ABs.

I like Paul Janish. I think he _should_ be the starter but I don't expect him to be much better than he is based on a handful of ABs. It's nice to hope that, but it's unlikely to happen.

Totally true and I agree. But he should be getting SOME starts...especially when he IS hitting well. Just baffles me.

pedro
05-07-2010, 06:16 PM
If you were to read this board and not look at the stats you would think Cabrera was OPSing .850. He's getting on base at a .292 clip while OPSing .668 while playing awful defense. I like Cabrera, he seems like a great dude and was a very good player in his younger days, but you simply can't have a defensive liability at shortstop, IMO. It's arguably the most important defensive position on the field. Why make things tougher on the pitching staff by continually running a range challenged guy out there at SS every night?

And as bad as that is, it's still better than the best month Janish had all last year and Cabrera's track record suggests he will improve, what does janish's track record suggest?

OnBaseMachine
05-07-2010, 06:17 PM
And as bad as that is, it's still better than the best month Janish had all last year and Cabrera's track record suggests he will improve.

Janish is not the answer, but neither is Cabrera. If forced to choose between the two then give me Janish because he benefits the pitching staff with above average defense.

pedro
05-07-2010, 06:19 PM
Janish is not the answer, but neither is Cabrera. If forced to choose between the two then give me Janish because he benefits the pitching staff with above average defense.

This offense can not carry his weak bat. If the Reds had a masher in LF and Stubbs was producing then maybe, but not on this team as it is currently constructed.

Brutus
05-07-2010, 06:22 PM
For me, this is a no-brainer.

Both are poor at this point with the bat. It's debatable whether or not Janish would be better than Cabrera. Neither, though, will be very good.

But defensively it's not even close. Janish has proven he would be a tremendous defensive asset. Cabrera is showing to be very, very poor with his range to the point that too many balls are seeing their way into the outfield.

Even if it's accepted that Janish is slightly worse with the bat, he's by far the better glove man at this juncture.

dougdirt
05-07-2010, 06:24 PM
This offense can not carry his weak bat. If the Reds had a masher in LF and Stubbs was producing then maybe, but not on this team as it is currently constructed.

Its about total production. This defense can't carry a terrible glove up the middle. The pitching staff is struggling to get through 6 nightly, having a defensive hole at SS sure can't be helping.

pedro
05-07-2010, 06:25 PM
For me, this is a no-brainer.

Both are poor at this point with the bat. It's debatable whether or not Janish would be better than Cabrera. Neither, though, will be very good.

But defensively it's not even close. Janish has proven he would be a tremendous defensive asset. Cabrera is showing to be very, very poor with his range to the point that too many balls are seeing their way into the outfield.

Even if it's accepted that Janish is slightly worse with the bat, he's by far the better glove man at this juncture.

But it's not a slight difference with the bat. Everyone cries about Cabrera's .688 OPS, which will BTW, most likely get better. Janish has never done that in a single month in his entire major league career.

OnBaseMachine
05-07-2010, 06:26 PM
This offense can not carry his weak bat. If the Reds had a masher in LF and Stubbs was producing then maybe, but not on this team as it is currently constructed.

It's not like they're going to miss Cabrera's bat. He's getting on base at a .292 clip. Is the offense really going to miss that? Cabrera's awful defense wipes out what very little value Cabrera provides witht he bat. Give me Janish's awful offense and above average defense over Cabrera's bad offense and awful defense.

pedro
05-07-2010, 06:28 PM
Its about total production. This defense can't carry a terrible glove up the middle. The pitching staff is struggling to get through 6 nightly, having a defensive hole at SS sure can't be helping.

If I thought Cabrera would OPS .688 all year I might agree with you. But I think it's more likely that Janish would OPS .588 if given the job.

TheNext44
05-07-2010, 06:29 PM
SS is a defense first position. You have to be at least league average defensively at SS to compete. Cabrera is not even close.

I think the best combo is a slick fielder starting and a better bat on the bench to pinch hit. The Reds have that, but won't utilize it.

Brutus
05-07-2010, 06:29 PM
But it's not a slight difference with the bat. Everyone cries about Cabrera's .688 OPS, which will BTW, most likely get better. Janish has never done that in a single month in his entire major league career.

I don't know that it will get better. He had a .705 OPS last year, and it's not very much of a jump to conclude he will continue to decline this season.

Put it another way... in 700 PA's last year, Cabrera was only worth 0.8 a win above replacement for the season with his OPS and defense. Paul Janish, in 300 PA's last year and a .601 OPS, was worth 0.9 wins above replacement.

So in essentially 40% of the time played, Janish was worth an estimated one more run.

pedro
05-07-2010, 06:29 PM
It's not like they're going to miss Cabrera's bat. He's getting on base at a .292 clip. Is the offense really going to miss that? Cabrera's awful defense wipes out what very little value Cabrera provides witht he bat. Give me Janish's awful offense and above average defense over Cabrera's bad offense and awful defense.

It's early. Again the guy OPS'd .775 in 305 AB's the second half of last year.

OnBaseMachine
05-07-2010, 06:32 PM
Cabrera posted a .705 OPS in 2008 and 2009. I just don't see where that's enough to make up for his poor range at SS.

As much as the offense can't afford to have Janish's weak stick in the lineup, the pitching staff can't afford to have a severely range challenged shortstop.

RedsManRick
05-07-2010, 06:32 PM
I'm guessing we'll just see OCab to #1 and BP back to #2. I'd definitely prefer to see Hanigan moved up, but there's no way that happens. Stubbs will bat 7th in front of Hanigan or 8th behind Hernandez if I had to bet.

I think I should get a bite of that cookie too!

pedro
05-07-2010, 06:32 PM
I don't know that it will get better. He had a .705 OPS last year, and it's not very much of a jump to conclude he will continue to decline this season.

Put it another way... in 700 PA's last year, Cabrera was only worth 0.8 a win above replacement for the season with his OPS and defense. Paul Janish, in 300 PA's last year and a .601 OPS, was worth 0.9 wins above replacement.

So in essentially 40% of the time played, Janish was worth an estimated one more run.

It's not that simple, yes he sucked in oakland but he was really good the second half of last year so to just chalk it up to linear decline isn't a very strong argument.

Brutus
05-07-2010, 06:33 PM
I think I should get a bite of that cookie too!

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_53oMB4-fxXM/SVZZdJntnPI/AAAAAAAAAAM/vXEtrdBFtqI/s1600-R/cookie.gif

pedro
05-07-2010, 06:34 PM
I guess we'll just have to see. I don't have anything else to say as Cabrera's going to get the starts for the foreseeable future and that you can bank on.

TheNext44
05-07-2010, 06:35 PM
But it's not a slight difference with the bat. Everyone cries about Cabrera's .688 OPS, which will BTW, most likely get better. Janish has never done that in a single month in his entire major league career.

Janish April, 2010:

.316 .381 .632 1.013

:D

But Janish did OPS .638 after Gonzo was traded and he started everyday. He should be able to do even better than that, considering his spring and April.

And I completely disagree that Cabrera will get better. He has gotten worse offensively every year the last three years. He's more likely to stay the same or get worse than he is to get better.

At most we are talking about Cabrera being around 50 OPS points better than Janish, most of which are in SLG, which is less valuable. Janish's glove easily makes up for that.

Brutus
05-07-2010, 06:35 PM
It's not that simple, yes he sucked in oakland but he was really good the second half of last year so to just chalk it up to linear decline isn't a very strong argument.

He's had an OPS of .700 of below in literally half (6) of the last 12 seasons.

Excluding his age for a moment and the likelihood of decline, there's only a 50/50 chance he'd make it over .700.

pedro
05-07-2010, 06:39 PM
He's had an OPS of .700 of below in literally half (6) of the last 12 seasons.

Excluding his age for a moment and the likelihood of decline, there's only a 50/50 chance he'd make it over .700.

and not once since 2005

_Sir_Charles_
05-07-2010, 06:42 PM
But it's not a slight difference with the bat. Everyone cries about Cabrera's .688 OPS, which will BTW, most likely get better. Janish has never done that in a single month in his entire major league career.

Which has consisted of about 4 months total. Sure, he's had a few more months where he's gotten a few ab's, but in regards to a full month of regular play...it's been about 4 months. May & June of '08, Sept & half of Aug. of '09. People here scream about small sample sizes...I'd say Paul's major league career counts as one. Wouldn't you?

pedro
05-07-2010, 06:43 PM
Janish April, 2010:

.316 .381 .632 1.013

:D

But Janish did OPS .638 after Gonzo was traded and he started everyday. He should be able to do even better than that, considering his spring and April.

And I completely disagree that Cabrera will get better. He has gotten worse offensively every year the last three years. He's more likely to stay the same or get worse than he is to get better.

At most we are talking about Cabrera being around 50 OPS points better than Janish, most of which are in SLG, which is less valuable. Janish's glove easily makes up for that.

I think "at most" we are talking about the potential of a .125 OPS swing.

But, again, that will be predicated on what Cabrera does balanced against Janish's career numbers because, unless Cabrera gets hurt, Janish isn't going to start.

pedro
05-07-2010, 06:45 PM
Which has consisted of about 4 months total. Sure, he's had a few more months where he's gotten a few ab's, but in regards to a full month of regular play...it's been about 4 months. May & June of '08, Sept & half of Aug. of '09. People here scream about small sample sizes...I'd say Paul's major league career counts as one. Wouldn't you?

Not when you're pushing 28, you've been below a .600 OPS more than than you've been above it, and your minor league numbers are not all that impressive either.

nate
05-07-2010, 06:47 PM
I'll readily admit that I didn't follow the minor leagues even remotely closely until about 2 to 3 years ago. So I missed Janish's minor league career for the most part. But looking at the numbers, I don't see stats indicating a wet noodle for a bat.

I couldn't find his college numbers, but some stuff on his wiki page raised my eyebrows some. At Rice, he hit .299 one year and .345 another with 9 dingers.

2004: .263 in 66 games. MVP of the florida instructional league.
2005: .245 in 55 games. Lost half the season to tommy john surgury
2006: .278 with 9 hr in 91 games. 4th best K% in league at Sarasota.
2007: "When he was promoted on July 8, he ranked second in the Southern League (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_League_%28baseball%29) in doubles (21) and 5th among all Double-A players in walks (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_on_balls) (50). Following the season, his strike zone discipline was rated by Baseball America as the best in the organization."
2008: "Janish began the season with Louisville, hitting .293 in 35 games (4 hr, 20 rbi) before being promoted"

Now, I'm no expert...but I see lots of things in there that show me he knows how to hit and could at the major league level if given a chance. That 2 month trial run at the end of last season could be the aberration.

I see a history of solid doubles numbers throughout his minors career.



Totally true and I agree. But he should be getting SOME starts...especially when he IS hitting well. Just baffles me.

In a little over 2000 minor league PAs, he's OPS'ed a cool .733.

In a little over 400 big league PAs, he's OPS'ed .605.

His true level is somewhere in between and closer to the major league numbers.

The problem is, you're confusing a miniscule sample of good performance for a dramatic change in talent. He's really not going to be much more than he is with the bat and unfortunately, he's not really going to ever get the chance to prove otherwise unless someone gets hurt.

Brutus
05-07-2010, 06:48 PM
and not once since 2005

But there were two seasons of .705 in there (which I didn't even include with the 6 of 12 stat I mentioned).

On average, that means he'd hit .705 or below in 2 of every 3 seasons. At 36 years old, I'd say the chances are great that's what he'll do this year. If he were still fielding the way he used to, that would be fine. But clearly he isn't.

Even if he assumed he would raise his OPS by 17 points to .705, based on last year's rates for he and Janish (with Janish having a .600 OPS), Janish would still be expected to be nearly 15 runs better overall than Cabrera if adjusted to the same number of games in a full season.

I can agree with you that Cabrera is still more likely to hit a little better than Janish. But he's giving so many runs away defensive now, while Janish would be saving a ton, that it doesn't make up for the difference between the two in fielding.

_Sir_Charles_
05-07-2010, 06:51 PM
So I take it that you're okay with a mediocre bat at short and a well below average glove at short...just so long as it's not a well below average BAT at short. If all we look at is the bat, then yes, Cabrera should be starting. But I don't think it's a clear cut as some think. Take the glove into consideration too though...I just don't see Cabrera's bat (even if it DOES improve to his career averages) being good enough to justify him getting well over 90% of the starts at short.

Personally, I think Cabrera would make a much better pinch-hitter than just about anybody on our bench including Janish. Just another reason for getting Paul some starts besides the rather obvious ones IMO.


~edit~ Sorry, that was in response to Pedro mostly.

TRF
05-07-2010, 06:53 PM
And as bad as that is, it's still better than the best month Janish had all last year and Cabrera's track record suggests he will improve, what does janish's track record suggest?

What track record? one year in MLB? his minor league track record suggests he can hit a bunch of doubles, take a decent amount of walks.

OC's track record 5 years ago suggested that 5 years ago he could come out of it. But its not 5 years ago, and all the reports say his defense is atrocious.

So let's add up the positives of both, and I'll be fair here.

Cabrera


Solid history of GG defense. probably has Juan Castro range right now, but makes most of the routine plays.

Coming off a second half in 2009 with a .775 OPS


Janish


Excellent defender at SS
Defense aids the rotation. fewer balls get through means fewer pitches thrown.
Probably good for 50 BB's over 600 PA's



Negatives

Cabrera


Bat has regressed, could OPS under .700 this year.

Defense has really regressed


Janish


Current offense is likely a mirage, certainly the SLG


Janish in his career has always been good for about 70-100 points of OBP past his BA. If he hits .250, he'll OBP .320-.350. It varies, but the 70 point difference is the low end. It isn't the doubles he hits or the HR's that he doesn't hit that are the problem, its his lack of singles. Dusty said get stronger. he got stronger. Yeah, ST stats should be taken with a grain of salt, but over his last 59 AB's, 2010 regular season and ST combined, he's hitting like .330 .390 .610.

That can't last, but why not enjoy it and the plus plus defense while we can?

_Sir_Charles_
05-07-2010, 06:53 PM
In a little over 2000 minor league PAs, he's OPS'ed a cool .733.

In a little over 400 big league PAs, he's OPS'ed .605.

His true level is somewhere in between and closer to the major league numbers.

The problem is, you're confusing a miniscule sample of good performance for a dramatic change in talent. He's really not going to be much more than he is with the bat and unfortunately, he's not really going to ever get the chance to prove otherwise unless someone gets hurt.

Well, I'm not expecting a dramatic change in talent OR performance. I'm only talking of improvement. Baby steps type of improvement. But even if he DOESN'T improve...his overall production (including the glove) is better than Cabrera's IMO.

Some hitters can't stay sharp if they don't play regularly. I don't think many would argue with that. A good portion of Paul's MLB ab's were in some pretty sparce playing time. I hate comparing full time stats to part time stats as being equal. I know we don't have anything else to go with in regards to his MLB career, but they could be somewhat misleading IMO.

As for the stuff I posted from the Wiki page...that was mainly because the stuff surprised me. I was expecting to see a minor league career full of garbage...but there were a few gems in there worth looking at.

BRM
05-07-2010, 07:07 PM
Debating two versions of suck for the SS position is a tad depressing.

_Sir_Charles_
05-07-2010, 07:09 PM
Debating two versions of suck for the SS position is a tad depressing.

LOL. And BRM brings reality CRASHING down! :O)

Homer Bailey
05-07-2010, 07:17 PM
I appreciate the debate at hand, and see both sides of the argument very clearly. I love numbers when settling a debate, but there are some cases where the numbers are too close to call. I think this is one of those cases.

Cabrera - Avg bat/Below Average Glove
Janish - WELL below Avg bat/Above Avg. Glove

Here is where I add the "human" element to the my internal debate. I think the Reds need OC's bat in the lineup. Sure his OPS and OBP is less than stellar, but he's been a clutch hitter so far this year. Also, he's had AWFUL luck this year, sporting a .253 BABIP despite hitting LD's at a 19.3% clip.

Using .72/.17/.28 as league avg's for line drives/fly balls/ground balls, his line would be as follows:

.321/.366/.376/.742

Not too shabby? I would expect to see his BABIP to be slightly below league average due to his age and lack of supreme power, but it's tough to argue that we're still dealing with a small sample size here, and I think his numbers end up above what they currently are by year end.

TheNext44
05-07-2010, 07:29 PM
In a little over 2000 minor league PAs, he's OPS'ed a cool .733.

In a little over 400 big league PAs, he's OPS'ed .605.

His true level is somewhere in between and closer to the major league numbers.

The problem is, you're confusing a miniscule sample of good performance for a dramatic change in talent. He's really not going to be much more than he is with the bat and unfortunately, he's not really going to ever get the chance to prove otherwise unless someone gets hurt.

This is where we disagree.

Most guys who hit as poorly as Janish has in the majors are either small guys, or who guys with bad plate discipline. Janish is neither. He's 6' 2" 195 LBS. He's bigger than Cabrera. He's about the same size as Phillips, two inches taller, 5 lbs lighter. He has the build to hit for power.

He also has solid walk and K rates, low % of swinging outside the zone and good line drive rates.

He should be a good hitter, or at least a much better hitter than he as been. He should be coming close to or surpassing his minor league numbers.

The Reds coaching staff noticed that he just didn't have enough strength in his wrists to hit for power. That could be why he has been so poor at the plate. Another reason may be approach. Maybe he was trying too hard to be a slap hitter?

He claims to have worked on his wrist strength in the offseason, and definitely has changed his approach to the plate. Those might make a big difference, they certainly seemed to have this season. Maybe they won't over the course of the season. Hard to tell.

But what I think is clear, is that Janish has the talent to be a good hitter, but for some reason, hasn't been one. I think he definitely has an upside offensively.

nate
05-07-2010, 07:55 PM
Well, I'm not expecting a dramatic change in talent OR performance. I'm only talking of improvement. Baby steps type of improvement. But even if he DOESN'T improve...his overall production (including the glove) is better than Cabrera's IMO.

Some hitters can't stay sharp if they don't play regularly. I don't think many would argue with that. A good portion of Paul's MLB ab's were in some pretty sparce playing time. I hate comparing full time stats to part time stats as being equal. I know we don't have anything else to go with in regards to his MLB career, but they could be somewhat misleading IMO.

As for the stuff I posted from the Wiki page...that was mainly because the stuff surprised me. I was expecting to see a minor league career full of garbage...but there were a few gems in there worth looking at.

It's not surprising to see "gems" in a minor league player who's made the majors. Nevertheless, Janish's stats aren't misleading and he's not likely to be a whole lot better than what he is. And, as I said, he's not likely to get a chance to prove otherwise.

And, again, I think his glove + bat => Cabrera's glove + bat. I'm in favor of him starting but I'd settle for starting more often.

nate
05-07-2010, 07:59 PM
This is where we disagree.

Most guys who hit as poorly as Janish has in the majors are either small guys, or who guys with bad plate discipline. Janish is neither. He's 6' 2" 195 LBS. He's bigger than Cabrera. He's about the same size as Phillips, two inches taller, 5 lbs lighter. He has the build to hit for power.

He also has solid walk and K rates, low % of swinging outside the zone and good line drive rates.

He should be a good hitter, or at least a much better hitter than he as been. He should be coming close to or surpassing his minor league numbers.

The Reds coaching staff noticed that he just didn't have enough strength in his wrists to hit for power. That could be why he has been so poor at the plate. Another reason may be approach. Maybe he was trying too hard to be a slap hitter?

He claims to have worked on his wrist strength in the offseason, and definitely has changed his approach to the plate. Those might make a big difference, they certainly seemed to have this season. Maybe they won't over the course of the season. Hard to tell.

But what I think is clear, is that Janish has the talent to be a good hitter, but for some reason, hasn't been one. I think he definitely has an upside offensively.

I'd like to see him get the chance to prove it but unless he channels his inner Tonya Harding, he won't.

Spring~Fields
05-07-2010, 08:45 PM
I'd like to see him get the chance to prove it but unless he channels his inner Tonya Harding, he won't.

:bowrofl::bowrofl::bowrofl::bowrofl:

Falls City Beer
05-07-2010, 10:05 PM
I usually don't single Dusty out as a problem, but boy is he pushing it by continuing to lead off with Stubbs (see lineup card 5/7). Against an off-speed pitcher as well. I'd understand it against Zambrano and his perfunctory first fastball right over the center of the plate, but Silva's going to give him nothing but 75 MPH sliders and changes on the outside part of the plate, which are death to Stubbs.

I got the lineup position wrong but no matter--I nailed this one.

Ron Madden
05-08-2010, 03:00 AM
there was NO way Dusty was going to bat the catchers in the #2 hole. so Phillips-catcher 1-2 was out.

i am actually ok with Cabrera as the leadoff man as it leaves Phillips in the #2 hole where he has hit very well. just leave him there forever if he feels comfortable there.
if the team can get a real leadoff hitter at some point then just drop Cabrera back to the #6 spot.



Write a slow of foot, low OBP leadoff hitter into the lineup followed by Brandon Phillips and you decrease your chances of scoring runs while increasing the oppositions chances to turn two.

Brandon has a bad habit of rolllin' over on good pitches to hit, too often this turns into ground balls to SS or 3B.

JMHO

Ron Madden
05-08-2010, 03:13 AM
Dusty will be here from 2-3 pm to accept apologies.

He should there being humble and grateful thanking God and everyone else for the chance he was given to Manage the Reds at the price they're paying him.


I hated the decision to hire Baker at the time and I haven't changed my mind

Ron Madden
05-08-2010, 03:29 AM
So you take one of your best RBI guys and put him in the leadoff. Dusty has not a clue!! I like PHillips batting leadoff, but how can you take your clean up hitter that you man love and make him a leadoff hitter. Of course Phillips really has not been hitting yet this year.

I like Brandon Phillips but the truth of the matter is he's neither a leadoff hitter or a cleanup hitter. I'd bat him 5th vs LHP or 6th vs RHP.

HokieRed
05-08-2010, 09:56 AM
I like Brandon Phillips but the truth of the matter is he's neither a leadoff hitter or a cleanup hitter. I'd bat him 5th vs LHP or 6th vs RHP.

Against RHP he's established himself over this career as an 8th hitter.

Mario-Rijo
05-08-2010, 04:34 PM
It's a bit odd but I get the feeling Janish has improved his strength a bit again. It's not the results perse but he is hitting almost everything hard even outs, kinda of weird from him but he has. It's probably just pure luck but it's interesting nonetheless. Obviously even if he did it it probably would only bring him to just adequate enough to not be horrible but it's something.