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View Full Version : when should i start worrying about our top hitting prospects?



Will M
05-06-2010, 07:46 PM
Here are Redszone's preseason prospect rankings:

Prospect #1 - Aroldis Chapman

Prospect #2 - Yonder Alonso - .724 OPS in AA (!)

Prospect #3 - Mike Leake

Prospect #4 - Todd Frazier - .600 OPS in AAA

Prospect #5 - Juan Francisco - .607 OPS in AAA. two walks in 80 PAs. sad.

Prospect #6 - Yorman Rodriguez

Prospect #7 - Travis Wood

Prospect #8 - Chris Heisey - .737 OPS in AAA. Called up to the bigs due to general ineptitude on the AAA roster.

Prospect #9 - Zack Cozart

Prospect #10 - Brad Boxberger

Our top pitching prospects have played well but four out of our top five hitting prospects are off to very poor starts. Heck, I thought Frazier would be in the bigs by now & Heisey and Alonso would be ready for the bigs at some point this year. When should I start worrying? Are any of these guys going to improve enough to help the big league team this year?

dougdirt
05-06-2010, 08:04 PM
I would start to worry in July if all of them are still struggling.

Kc61
05-06-2010, 09:30 PM
Here are Redszone's preseason prospect rankings:



Prospect #5 - Juan Francisco - .607 OPS in AAA. two walks in 80 PAs. sad.

?
Don't be sad for Francisco. He now has 12 hits in the last four games.

GIDP
05-06-2010, 11:00 PM
When the season is over.

Will M
05-07-2010, 01:47 AM
When the season is over.

i can't buy into that reasoning.

every time i brought up Rolen's fragile nature i was told by people that if Rolen went on the deal it was no big deal. Frazier would be called up to play. tough to hit in the bigs when you hit .185 in AAA

heck, a lot of folks (me included) hoped Frazier would make the team as a supersub

i felt that Walt's plan for LF was to duct tape it with Gomes & Nix until one of the top prospects was ready. it was about the best plan he had since Bob wouldn't spent money. problem is Gomes & Nix are worse than in 2009 & none of these four guys is ready to take over

so i think Walt & others were planning/hoping one a couple of these guys helping the big league club THIS season

Will M
05-07-2010, 01:49 AM
Don't be sad for Francisco. He now has 12 hits in the last four games.

yes but i personally don't think he will be a successful pro hacking at every pitch within 2 feet of home plate. i am sure he has been told dozens of times that he needs to be more selective. yet he can't or won't do it. since i think this will prevent him from a successful big league career i think thats kind of sad.

RedLegsToday
05-07-2010, 08:33 AM
Hey, at least Meso has an OPS over 1!

GIDP
05-07-2010, 09:32 AM
i can't buy into that reasoning.

every time i brought up Rolen's fragile nature i was told by people that if Rolen went on the deal it was no big deal. Frazier would be called up to play. tough to hit in the bigs when you hit .185 in AAA

heck, a lot of folks (me included) hoped Frazier would make the team as a supersub

i felt that Walt's plan for LF was to duct tape it with Gomes & Nix until one of the top prospects was ready. it was about the best plan he had since Bob wouldn't spent money. problem is Gomes & Nix are worse than in 2009 & none of these four guys is ready to take over

so i think Walt & others were planning/hoping one a couple of these guys helping the big league club THIS season
Well if we are talking injuries and stuff like that I see your point. I was going for the basic "If they dont hit for a full season then there is a problem".

edabbs44
05-07-2010, 09:45 AM
Friggin Dusty. :)

Will M
05-07-2010, 01:11 PM
Well if we are talking injuries and stuff like that I see your point. I was going for the basic "If they dont hit for a full season then there is a problem".

fair enough.

HokieRed
05-07-2010, 04:01 PM
Note: there's just a reshuffling going on of the "top hitting prospects." See OBM's thread on Soto.

jmcclain19
05-07-2010, 05:29 PM
Alonso's lack of power is most concerning - because we're not talking about a month, we're talking about three years now of that power just not showing up on the field.

For a guy who was drafted because of his superior hitting skills, I'd hope that the Reds would get better than one month of power out of him - excuses about hand injuries and everything else still abound.

Benihana
05-07-2010, 06:55 PM
Revisit a month from now. Alonso is most concerning to me.

HokieRed
05-07-2010, 08:48 PM
Revisit a month from now. Alonso is most concerning to me.

I'm not concerned about Alonso at all and I'm really pleased to see the guy I consider the 2nd best position prospect in the org--Soto--picking it back up. Things look right on course for the real difference makers.

2nd best prospect at High A or above, where you can really start to sort them out.

camisadelgolf
05-08-2010, 12:32 PM
Alonso's decline in power is expected due to the injury he had last year.

redsof72
05-08-2010, 12:52 PM
Not concerned about any specific players yet and won't be for a while. I am really concerned that the organization is once again 29th in overall record, right where they were last year. A losing mentality is a hard thing to overcome. You see those late inning blunders from losing teams that cost games. When a teams believes it is bad, they usually find a way to lose. You don't want your prospects developing in that kind of culture. I have said that before. Learning to win is as important as learning any other skill and we are missing out on that one, totally.

GIDP
05-08-2010, 01:08 PM
My concern is if they dont hit long enough, once they do start hitting our manager wont give them playing time when they get called up and use the "he was batting .233 in AAA" line to justify it.

jmcclain19
05-08-2010, 04:36 PM
Alonso has zero margin for error. He's a 1st baseman, and major league firstbaseman rake - even the poor ones rake better than any other position on the field.

If he doesn't hit, he has no value to the Reds.

Better keep those fingers and toes crossed - but we're going on three seasons now with zero power. We're not past the point of no return yet, but that could be the sign coming up around the bend.

GIDP
05-08-2010, 05:40 PM
Alsono slugged .497 for Sarasota in 2009 that was 7th in the league
he also slugged .457 in AA, which if he had enough ABs would have been 23nd

what do you consider zero power?

gedred69
05-08-2010, 06:51 PM
I've considered for some time that maybe, Hitting prospects are looked upon favorably by limited terms of success on their Minor League ascension or where they were drafted. Some guys like Bruce are just plain good enough, that they always deserve serious opportunity. How good was Heisey, before last year? I don't remember him standing out. Has Stubbs ever been a better hitter other than a few spurts? Alonzo has hit a wall like Frazier who has always tantilized until AAA. Valaika was more than solid until last year (but was obviously hurt as he has hit well this year). Dorn has always been steady, but has never even had a sniff of an opportunity, which reminds me of an interview many years ago with golf pro J.C. Snead. He was an up and coming .320 hitting 1st baseman in the Minors when he abruptly quit base ball for golf. When asked why, his answer was, "because I played with guys who were good enough but didn't get the opportunity because a coach didn't like them because of their stance, or thought they should hit more for power than Avg. or any number of bad reasons. On the Course it's your ability against everybody else, no one to make bad decisions that affect how far you get" (paraphrased). I'm wondering if the Reds are not doing the job evaluating and bringing the right guys along.

GOYA
05-08-2010, 07:56 PM
Valaika was more than solid until last year (but was obviously hurt as he has hit well this year).

Just to clarify, Valaika was not hurt during the poor start he had in Louisville. He just had trouble making the adjustment. His injury was a result of his poor performance, not the other way around.

TheNext44
05-09-2010, 09:55 PM
Here are Redszone's preseason prospect rankings:

As of May 9th

Prospect #1 - Aroldis Chapman

Prospect #2 - Yonder Alonso - .724 OPS in AA (!) .387 .419 .807

Prospect #3 - Mike Leake

Prospect #4 - Todd Frazier - .600 OPS in AAA .326 .338 .664; last 10 days: .375 .471 .846

Prospect #5 - Juan Francisco - .607 OPS in AAA. two walks in 80 PAs. sad. .293 .505 .798; last 10 days: .465 .825 1.290 (still only 3 walks though)

Prospect #6 - Yorman Rodriguez

Prospect #7 - Travis Wood

Prospect #8 - Chris Heisey - .737 OPS in AAA. Called up to the bigs due to general ineptitude on the AAA roster.

Prospect #9 - Zack Cozart .356 .474 .830

Prospect #10 - Brad Boxberger

Valaika .387 .466 .853

Dorn .383 .480 .863

Also, Wlad is hitting .366 .571 .937 in the last 10 days.

Our top pitching prospects have played well but four out of our top five hitting prospects are off to very poor starts. Heck, I thought Frazier would be in the bigs by now & Heisey and Alonso would be ready for the bigs at some point this year. When should I start worrying? Are any of these guys going to improve enough to help the big league team this year?

Looks like help should be on it's way soon.

Will M
05-09-2010, 10:09 PM
Looks like help should be on it's way soon.

yes. its very good to see these guys start to hit. for the first month of AAA they were as a whole brutal.

i wonder what Dorn has to do to get a shot in the bigs? Nix was a decent 5th outfielder in 2009 but so far this year he hasn't gotten it done (231/306/536). at a certain point he will have to go back to AAA to see if he can get his stroke back (or just be released). despite his en fuego streak i don't think Gomes will hit well enough vs RHP to be the everyday left fielder. vs LHP his offense likely outweighs his defense enough to be our best option. but vs RHP i'd rather have someone else in LF.