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View Full Version : Can The Reds Win With Bailey and Cueto?



TheNext44
05-08-2010, 03:19 AM
Yes, a knee jerk reaction to Friday's game, but something that I've been wondering about for awhile.

Both are young, flyball pitchers who have yet to really find it. I think unless they close the gap in GABP to get rid of the wind tunnel in right center, there is no way the Reds can afford to keep both and compete.

If the Reds played in a less homer friendly park, they could let both of them work things out in the hope that at least one of them reaches their potential. But in GABP, when they make just one mistake, they get hammered. I don't see this letting up.

I say trade at least on of them for a real LF. One of them and Phillips would get a great one.

Anyone agree?

Will M
05-08-2010, 03:43 AM
i find it a bit emotionally draining to be a Reds fan. my enthusiasm tank is pretty empty right now. the team keeps making mistake after mistake despite changes in ownership, GMs & managers. then the team keeps running out the same 'potential' guys year after year with the same subpar results. it wouldn't suprise me if someday Homer was a good major league starter but i suspect it will NEVER be for the Reds. as for Johnny i am past ready for his move to the pen. its truly amazing how many chances these guys get.

I would actually be HAPPY if the team:
1. Traded Homer tomorrow for the best deal we could get
2. Called up Maloney to take his place
3. Moved Cueto to the pen when the team feels Chapman is ready
4. trade/release Harang when the team feels Wood is ready
5. trade Brandon 'showboat' Phillips after a hot streak when they can get value

it seems 2010 was simply to put 'lipstick on the pig' of the 2009 team & try to sell it to the fans as a team that could compete. same players as 2009 is gonna get you the same results as 2009.

reds44
05-08-2010, 05:34 AM
Why is there so much hate for Cueto on here? He showed improvement from his first to second year, and while he's off to a slow start this year, his last two starts have been much better.

He'll be fine.

GADawg
05-08-2010, 07:29 AM
it'd probably wouldn't sting so much to be a flyball pitcher if they weren't always(or should I say eventually)pitching behind in the count. I wonder if the Reds hitters(although they had a good night)noticed that the Cubs still got their knocks even after taking a few pitches and falling behind in the count early on...I'd just like them to take a few so that I don't have to hear Thom say "first pitch swinging"....that really drives him crazy eh?

btw why is it that everyone is always jonesing to trade Phillips? He's one of if not the best defensive middle infielder in the league and while he's no cleanup hitter he is still a very solid offensive player for his position. If it's his being the anti Adam Rosales then I can understand somewhat but otherwise I don't really get it. Without him what are you gonna fill that spot with...more Aaron Miles types?

Spring~Fields
05-08-2010, 10:25 AM
I think unless they close the gap in GABP to get rid of the wind tunnel in right center, there is no way the Reds can afford to keep both and compete.

If the Reds played in a less homer friendly park, they could let both of them work things out in the hope that at least one of them reaches their potential. But in GABP, when they make just one mistake, they get hammered. I don't see this letting up.

Anyone agree?



Pitching Splits
GP IP BB SO ERA BAA OBP SLG OPS
Total 28 252.1 100 219 5.17 .274 .347 .425 .772
Home 15 138.0 48 120 5.35 .267 .336 .433 .768
Away 13 114.1 52 99 4.96 .282 .361 .416 .777

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/splits?team=cin

Spring~Fields
05-08-2010, 10:47 AM
the team keeps making mistake after mistake despite changes in ownership, GMs & managers.

then the team keeps running out the same 'potential' guys year after year with the same subpar results. it seems 2010 was simply to put 'lipstick on the pig' of the 2009 team & try to sell it to the fans as a team that could compete. same players as 2009 is gonna get you the same results as 2009.

I think that I agree with you. I wish that the Reds would either get on the Tampa, Florida, Oakland, and Minnesota plan or get on the St. Louis and other big spenders plan. The Reds keep getting basically the same $50.00 bag of groceries filled with cheap cosmetics when they go shopping.

They did pay the big bucks for the general manager, the manager and the broadcast booth, to get similiar results, that many try to dismiss and white wash away.

The same players as 2008, 2009 or the same, like or similar performance and production numbers, even if the players names change, will get you the same results as 2008, 2009.…..2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 etc.


Walt Jocketty/Dusty Baker's Cincinnati Reds
2008 OBP .321 ranked 25th RS 704 ranked 24th 4.34 RPG
2009 OBP .318 ranked 28th RS 673 ranked 24th 4.15 RPG
2010 OBP .314 ranked 25th RS 121 ranked 20th RS projects 700 4.32 RPG

Improvement ???

Run support for the pitching?

Or the same lipstick?
Repackaged and sold to the fans.
I think that I recognize the snout and curly little tail.


To put "lipstick on a pig" is a rhetorical expression, used to convey the message that making superficial or cosmetic changes is a futile attempt to disguise the true nature of a product.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lipstick_on_a_pig

Tommyjohn25
05-08-2010, 11:26 AM
I'm with Reds44. I don't get the hating on Cueto. Our SP has been better as a whole during the last 10 games. Last night is was awful. It happens.

By the way I am not opposed to trying Bailey in the pen. I do agree that his days as a starter are numbered.

_Sir_Charles_
05-08-2010, 11:31 AM
I simply don't see Homer working out in the pen at ALL. He's the type of pitcher who gets better the longer he throws. Pretty much the opposite of what you want from a bullpen arm. I vote that we keep throwing him out there every 5 days all season long. He's still VERY young and he's going to be inconsistent. The rotation is definitely where he belongs. Everybody has a stinker now and then.

VR
05-08-2010, 11:55 AM
Both have shown their overall lack of mental toughness on the mound, and neither have stuff good enough to overcome that.

Patience will have to be the order of the day with these guys.

RedEye
05-08-2010, 12:11 PM
I don't think Cueto and Bailey should be lumped into the same category. Yes, both can be frustrating at times, but Cueto has actually had some sustained ML success over the past two years. He hasn't been dominant, but he has been a consistent ML average starter--and I think that will continue, or he could even get better. Bailey, OTOH, had a flash of success at the end of last year, but other than that he's been way too hittable for a long time. He's the one I'm really worried about.

alexad
05-08-2010, 12:29 PM
Young pitchers have to learn how to pitch at the MLB level. All good pitchers do this. Give them time. Be happy we have two young studs instead of rejects that we have seen thrown out there in the past. I would take Bailey and Cueto any day over an Eric Milton type that we pay big bucks to stink.

RedEye
05-08-2010, 12:30 PM
Young pitchers have to learn how to pitch at the MLB level. All good pitchers do this. Give them time. Be happy we have two young studs instead of rejects that we have seen thrown out there in the past. I would take Bailey and Cueto any day over an Eric Milton type that we pay big bucks to stink.

Amen to that. It is difficult not to get frustrated though. We just have to remember they are both still 23. Not everyone can be Mike Leake and just already know how to pitch at that age.

KoryMac5
05-08-2010, 01:08 PM
I don't think Bailey has much value right now. Until we know for sure what Edison is when he gets back the Reds would be wise to hold on to Homer. I would hope that we see Homer glued to Price's side in the dugout today.

Falls City Beer
05-08-2010, 01:35 PM
Why is there so much hate for Cueto on here? He showed improvement from his first to second year, and while he's off to a slow start this year, his last two starts have been much better.

He'll be fine.

OTM. Pretty unfair to Cueto, I agree.

Guacarock
05-08-2010, 02:47 PM
The frustration being expressed with Bailey and Cueto is understandable, but premature and overblown. Let me explain. Both are young starting pitchers still learning on the job, building their stamina, gaining experience in what it takes to be steady and reliable all year long.

If they end the 2010 season as inconsistent as they have been to start the season, then it will be time to ask the kinds of questions some of you are posing. Namely, should they remain in our rotation at all? Should they remain but be viewed as middle of the rotation candidates or back-end fodder? Should one of them get recast in Owings' long-relief/spot starter role?

Come September, we should know more about the long-range potential of both of these pitchers and whether they're going to fulfill their potential anytime in the foreseeable future or in a Reds uniform.

For now, our focus should be on Harang and Arroyo. They are the two Reds starting pitchers whose fates should be settled earlier this season. And they are the two whose inconsistencies I find more frustrating than the shortcomings of either Bailey or Cueto.

Why? Because Harang and Arroyo are seasoned veterans drawing megabucks. They're paid quite handsomely to perform at a high level, and when they don't, too much pressure and stress gets diverted to the younger guns like Cueto and Bailey.

If Harang and Arroyo are still sporting ERA's over 6.00 a month from now, I highly doubt either's option will be picked up. Then the burning questions become: Can they be traded? When will they go? Can we reasonably hope to receive any fair return in the deals?

Will M
05-08-2010, 02:49 PM
i don't hate Cueto. however, i do feel that he would be a better pitcher in the pen. mainly due to his mental lapses as a starter. as an added bonus his fastball would have a little more mph in the pen as he wouldn't have to pace himself.

as to him being 'average' he is actually a bit below with a career ERA+ of 94 in 67 starts. take a second. 67 starts. and yet IMO he isn't showing improvement. how is he any different than the Johnny Cueto who pitched in May 2008?

OnBaseMachine
05-08-2010, 03:03 PM
Why is there so much hate for Cueto on here? He showed improvement from his first to second year, and while he's off to a slow start this year, his last two starts have been much better.

He'll be fine.

Agreed. Cueto was one of the best starters in the league in the first half of last season before going through a rough 7-8 game stretch in the middle of the season. He was pretty much a league average starter last season as a 23 year old with limited experience above High-A. There's nothing wrong with that. I was pleased with the improvement he showed last season. Cueto is fine, IMO. Keep him in the rotation where he belongs.

Same with Bailey. He's very frustrating to watch but the Reds need to stick with him and see if he can figure things out. The stuff is there but they need to find out if he can throw enough strikes to get hitters out on a consistent basis.

Will M
05-08-2010, 03:04 PM
btw why is it that everyone is always jonesing to trade Phillips? He's one of if not the best defensive middle infielder in the league and while he's no cleanup hitter he is still a very solid offensive player for his position. If it's his being the anti Adam Rosales then I can understand somewhat but otherwise I don't really get it. Without him what are you gonna fill that spot with...more Aaron Miles types?

1. i agree that based on his overall offensive & defensive numbers he is an above average player
2. i don't like the 'showboating'
3. he makes some big bucks & next year makes a ton. the money he makes next year really needs to go for an impact player not a complimentary player
4. 2B & LF should be (i know its the Reds) easier positions to fill than C, SS, CF, etc

TheNext44
05-08-2010, 03:10 PM
Why is there so much hate for Cueto on here? He showed improvement from his first to second year, and while he's off to a slow start this year, his last two starts have been much better.

He'll be fine.

I don't hate Cueto, or Bailey for that matter. In fact, I am very glad that the Reds have them on the team. They both have TOR stuff and could be TOR pitchers someday.

Cueto is obviously farther along than Bailey, but he still is not "there." My question is can he get "there" while pitching in GABP. Same question for Bailey.

I think that pitching in such a homer friendly park affects their overall mentality and approach, even in away games. It forces them to nibble more, to try to keep the other team from putting the ball in play. They both have ERA's over half a run higher at home. Just a theory from observation.

I would love for both of them to develop into their true talent, I'm just not sure that they can do that pitching in GABP. I think it is now time for the team to turn the corner and figure out who fits into the overall plan and who doesn't. I think that the overall plan can't have two young developing fly ball pitchers like Cueto and Bailey. They have to trade at least one of them.

TheNext44
05-08-2010, 03:14 PM
btw why is it that everyone is always jonesing to trade Phillips? He's one of if not the best defensive middle infielder in the league and while he's no cleanup hitter he is still a very solid offensive player for his position. If it's his being the anti Adam Rosales then I can understand somewhat but otherwise I don't really get it. Without him what are you gonna fill that spot with...more Aaron Miles types?

I have made my case for trading Phillips in other threads, but here is the condensed version.

He's the type of talent you build your team around. But he keeps making the same mistakes over and over again, and despite being called out in the media by his manager, over and over again, he does not learn or change. I see him being a constant problem/distraction in the clubhouse, and I see him continuing to make the same mistakes that hurt this team's chances to win. It is time for him to find another place to make these mistakes.

WebScorpion
05-09-2010, 01:55 AM
Young pitchers have to learn how to pitch at the MLB level. All good pitchers do this. Give them time. Be happy we have two young studs instead of rejects that we have seen thrown out there in the past. I would take Bailey and Cueto any day over an Eric Milton type that we pay big bucks to stink.

This is pretty much my take on them too. They're just displaying typical young pitcher inconsistencies. Cueto is off to a slow start since he was told to take the winter off and I'm thinking he'll be in mid-season form around...uh, er...MID-SEASON!! ;) Bailey is an interesting story; the dude gets better and stronger as the game wears on...he starts out throwing 93-94 and adds 1 mph for every two innings so he's throwing a free and easy 96-97 in the 7th inning. I think both of them give us a little something different and I see that as a strength in our rotation. Gone are the days we'd send 5 identical right-handed #4 pitchers in a row out there and expect them to somehow fool hitters. Now we've got a veteran power pitcher, a wily veteran with a 4 or 5 pitch repertoire, a couple young erratic power pitchers, and our young savant finesse pitcher. When Chapman gets his consistency down, we'll throw a power lefty in there in place of one of them and it will become very, very difficult for opposing hitters to time anything. I think the plan is coming together...try to enjoy seeing each little piece fall into place. This little team might just be a work of art in progress. :thumbup:


Just so you know, I remember thinking that little second baseman who constantly flapped his arm and the loss of Lee May were the ruination of the Big Red Machine. ;) You never can be too sure...

Strikes Out Looking
05-09-2010, 08:52 AM
I think we are all just frustrated with Cueto and Bailey, because we have seen glimpses of just how good they can be at times, but they are both very inconsistent in their own ways.

I believe the Reds will give Bailey a few more starts to straighten himself out. While Dusty has said (and I paraphrase) that he's in the rotation no matter what; his performance this year tells me that unless he fixes himself, or there is an injury, he's the one who gets moved when they either bring up Chapman or decide to give Wood a look.

Bailey has said he's had problems with his splitter this season. I wish the Reds could get Roger Craig to work with him to remedy it--is Craig even still alive?

As to Cueto--he's been much more consistent than Bailey; he just seems to need more polishing. He throws too many pitches in the early innings of games and has problems getting to the sixth inning on a regular basis. Maybe the Reds should get a him some refreshers from Mario Soto.

Both of these guys are still very young. The problem will be that even with their current performances, they will start to get expensive over the next couple of years; and if they don't improve enough, their overall costs will have the Reds move on.

All in all, I prefer talking about these two guys (and Volquez, and Chapman, and Leake, and Moloney, and Wood, and LeCure) than about Milton, Harnish, Hamilton and all the other retreads the old Linder led Reds trotted out on an almost daily basis.

The one other thing I'd like to see the organization do, is make the GABP more pitcher friendly, even if it costs a few hundred seats. (It's not like they are selling out every game).

RedsManRick
05-09-2010, 12:21 PM
Both guys are talented. Some talented guys make it, others don't. But I know I'd rather be given innings and opportunities to talented, young pitchers than mediocre vets with no upside. It's frustrating, but this is just how it goes by-and-large.

Falls City Beer
05-11-2010, 10:49 PM
That's why you don't conflate Bailey and Cueto.

RedsManRick
05-11-2010, 10:51 PM
Huh. Maybe the sky isn't falling after all.

reds44
05-11-2010, 10:52 PM
Yeah, Bailey and Cueto don't belong in the same sentence.

Falls City Beer
05-11-2010, 10:52 PM
Huh. Maybe the sky isn't falling after all.

Eh. I fully expect Bailey to perform CPR on the Pirates' offense tomorrow.

11larkin11
05-11-2010, 10:55 PM
Eh. I fully expect Bailey to perform CPR on the Pirates' offense tomorrow.

As I fully expect you to be wrong.

Falls City Beer
05-11-2010, 10:56 PM
As I fully expect you to be wrong.

The guy's never met a bit he didn't want to spit.

OnBaseMachine
05-11-2010, 10:57 PM
Awesome, awesome start by Johnny Cueto. That's one of the more dominant outings I've seen by a Reds starting pitcher. That's the first complete game one hit shutout by a Reds pitcher since John Smiley did it against the Cardinals on September 22nd, 1996. I'm so happy for him - he seems like a great guy. There's very few pitchers in the game with more talent than Cueto. When he's on like he was tonight he's almost unhittable. He was about 6-12 inches away from throwing a no-hitter.

Hopefully Homer Bailey can begin to turn his season around tomorrow and help complete a sweep of the Pirates.

membengal
05-11-2010, 10:59 PM
OBM, first ONE HIT shutout since Smiley in '96.

Mario-Rijo
05-11-2010, 11:12 PM
Eh. I fully expect Bailey to perform CPR on the Pirates' offense tomorrow.

As much as I hate to admit it I'd agree. I'm split on these 2 and have said before Cueto has a shot to be good, Bailey has a much less chance IMO. He looked great for a stretch last season but he is often too hittable. I think he can remain a starter but I doubt he is ever anything more than a #3 or 4 starter at best.

OnBaseMachine
05-11-2010, 11:28 PM
OBM, first ONE HIT shutout since Smiley in '96.

That's what I meant. My bad. Thanks. :)

TheNext44
05-11-2010, 11:41 PM
This is going to sound absurd after a 1 hitter, but not only do I still stand by my original premise that the Reds can't win with both Cueto and Bailey in the rotation, but I am even more convinced after tonight.

Cueto looked great... in the pitcher friendly stadium on a cold and rainy night against a terrible team. I counted at least a half a dozen deep fly balls that most likely would have gotten out in GABP on a normal day.

Now Cueto helped himself by not walking anyone and only giving up one hit. But that's because he knew he could pump his fastball in for strikes and not get hurt. My issue is that he can't have that approach when he pitches in GABP, and history tells us that he doesn't. He will give up homers if he does, and he has when he does. I hope I am wrong, but I see do not Cueto succeeding in the games that he pitches at home, at least not as much as he does on the road.

And just one more time for clarity, I am not saying that Cueto is the same pitcher as Bailey, just that they both are not built for GABP, and it is hurting their development. I think it is time for the Reds to trade one of them and start building a rotation with guys like Arroyo and Leake instead of Bailey and Cueto.

TheNext44
05-11-2010, 11:48 PM
Both guys are talented. Some talented guys make it, others don't. But I know I'd rather be given innings and opportunities to talented, young pitchers than mediocre vets with no upside. It's frustrating, but this is just how it goes by-and-large.

So that's the only option? Homer Bailey or Kip Wells?

My argument is that it is time for the Reds to build a starting staff that can survive GABP. There are lots of good above average starting pitchers who throw more ground balls than flyballs. The Reds rotation should have as many of those guys as possible.

The Reds are contending this year, the time to be concerned with just "giving innings" to guys is over. It's time to get players that help the team win now.

Tom Servo
05-12-2010, 12:31 AM
This is going to sound absurd after a 1 hitter, but not only do I still stand by my original premise that the Reds can't win with both Cueto and Bailey in the rotation, but I am even more convinced after tonight.

Cueto looked great... in the pitcher friendly stadium on a cold and rainy night against a terrible team. I counted at least a half a dozen deep fly balls that most likely would have gotten out in GABP on a normal day.

Now Cueto helped himself by not walking anyone and only giving up one hit. But that's because he knew he could pump his fastball in for strikes and not get hurt. My issue is that he can't have that approach when he pitches in GABP, and history tells us that he doesn't. He will give up homers if he does, and he has when he does. I hope I am wrong, but I see do not Cueto succeeding in the games that he pitches at home, at least not as much as he does on the road.

And just one more time for clarity, I am not saying that Cueto is the same pitcher as Bailey, just that they both are not built for GABP, and it is hurting their development. I think it is time for the Reds to trade one of them and start building a rotation with guys like Arroyo and Leake instead of Bailey and Cueto.
C'mon, don't be that guy.

Cedric
05-12-2010, 12:33 AM
C'mon, don't be that guy.

Why live in the present and be happy for Cueto? That's not as fun as being "right" IF Cueto fails later.

Screwball
05-12-2010, 12:33 AM
This is going to sound absurd after a 1 hitter, but not only do I still stand by my original premise that the Reds can't win with both Cueto and Bailey in the rotation, but I am even more convinced after tonight.

Cueto looked great... in the pitcher friendly stadium on a cold and rainy night against a terrible team. I counted at least a half a dozen deep fly balls that most likely would have gotten out in GABP on a normal day.


Alrighty then, Captain Buzzkill.

Reds1
05-12-2010, 12:41 AM
Cueto was great tonight. A little bleeder the only hit. I say this team can win with these two pitchers, but in tandem with Arroyo, Harang, and a man name Leake. :)

HokieRed
05-12-2010, 12:44 AM
Whole starting staff has been coming around very nicely for the last 15 games (even, to some degree, Bailey). I'm starting to think we've got something in Bryan Price.

mbgrayson
05-12-2010, 12:56 AM
Whole starting staff has been coming around very nicely for the last 15 games (even, to some degree, Bailey). I'm starting to think we've got something in Bryan Price.

Agreed. If the staff keeps adjusting like they have been, we might have something here.... finally.

VR
05-12-2010, 01:29 AM
Whole starting staff has been coming around very nicely for the last 15 games (even, to some degree, Bailey). I'm starting to think we've got something in Bryan Price.

I'm still pondering the Arizona Spring Training conspiracy

Ghosts of 1990
05-12-2010, 11:32 AM
Whole starting staff has been coming around very nicely for the last 15 games (even, to some degree, Bailey). I'm starting to think we've got something in Bryan Price.

Show me 15 or 30 more of about the same stretch and I'd fully agree.

I saw this staff put together plenty of runs like this under a man named Richard M. Pole

_Sir_Charles_
05-12-2010, 01:46 PM
Yeah, Bailey and Cueto don't belong in the same sentence.

I just don't get this. Look at their last 3 outings from the thread Brutus posted. Johnny had one great outing in there while Homer had one bad outing in there. Otherwise, they were nearly identical. A handful of poor outing in the beginning of the season from a young kid is NOT enough to earn the kind of lambasting he's gotten in this thread. Everyone is so quick to dismiss Homer's second half last year due to a couple poor outings. Fickle crowd.

(this wasn't at you specifically reds44...just in general about the quick triggers around here)

nate
05-12-2010, 02:10 PM
y argument is that it is time for the Reds to build a starting staff that can survive GABP. There are lots of good above average starting pitchers who throw more ground balls than flyballs. The Reds rotation should have as many of those guys as possible.

The Reds are contending this year, the time to be concerned with just "giving innings" to guys is over. It's time to get players that help the team win now.

High five!

Benihana
05-12-2010, 02:44 PM
I just don't get this. Look at their last 3 outings from the thread Brutus posted. Johnny had one great outing in there while Homer had one bad outing in there. Otherwise, they were nearly identical. A handful of poor outing in the beginning of the season from a young kid is NOT enough to earn the kind of lambasting he's gotten in this thread. Everyone is so quick to dismiss Homer's second half last year due to a couple poor outings. Fickle crowd.

(this wasn't at you specifically reds44...just in general about the quick triggers around here)

Last three outings? How about the last three years:

Bailey: 227 IP, 5.70 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 6.4 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, not better numbers every year
Cueto: 387 IP, 4.55 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, better numbers every year

2010 Bailey (24 years old): 7.24 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9, .311 BAA
2010 Cueto (24 years old): 4.07 ERA 1.21 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9, .248 BAA

Yeah, I'd say they look nearly identical :rolleyes:

reds44
05-12-2010, 03:44 PM
Last three outings? How about the last three years:

Bailey: 227 IP, 5.70 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 6.4 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, not better numbers every year
Cueto: 387 IP, 4.55 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, better numbers every year

2010 Bailey (24 years old): 7.24 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9, .311 BAA
2010 Cueto (24 years old): 4.07 ERA 1.21 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9, .248 BAA

Yeah, I'd say they look nearly identical :rolleyes:
:thumbup:

membengal
05-12-2010, 03:55 PM
Re: the thread title.

Apparently, yes.

Strikes Out Looking
05-12-2010, 03:59 PM
Re: the thread title.

Apparently, yes.

Especially against the Pirates!

LoganBuck
05-12-2010, 04:02 PM
Gotta love stats this time of year. Bailey shaves his ERA to 5.66 and Whip to 1.55, in one game.

11larkin11
05-12-2010, 04:06 PM
FCB?

Benihana
05-12-2010, 04:06 PM
Gotta love stats this time of year. Bailey shaves his ERA to 5.66 and Whip to 1.55, in one game.

True, but there is still a pretty wide gap between those two's stat lines.

Falls City Beer
05-12-2010, 04:26 PM
FCB?

Hats off to him. Now I hope we can dispense with the excuses about his pitch counts.

_Sir_Charles_
05-12-2010, 04:31 PM
Last three outings? How about the last three years:

Bailey: 227 IP, 5.70 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 6.4 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, not better numbers every year
Cueto: 387 IP, 4.55 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, better numbers every year

2010 Bailey (24 years old): 7.24 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9, .311 BAA
2010 Cueto (24 years old): 4.07 ERA 1.21 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9, .248 BAA

Yeah, I'd say they look nearly identical :rolleyes:

Did I say Homer was better than Cueto the past 3 years? No. Roll your eyes all you want, but I'm referring to RIGHT NOW. They'll both have bad games once in a while, but I think they have very similar ceilings and stuff right now. If Cueto was bounced up and down on the Cincy-Louisville shuttle his minor league & mlb numbers might look eerily similar to Homer's. It just seems like many here are much too quick to call Homer a bust or to ship him out. His age gets overlooked much too easily imo.

Homer Bailey
05-12-2010, 04:42 PM
That's why you don't conflate Bailey and Cueto.


Eh. I fully expect Bailey to perform CPR on the Pirates' offense tomorrow.


As I fully expect you to be wrong.

11larkin11 stand up and take a bow!

reds44
05-12-2010, 04:45 PM
Did I say Homer was better than Cueto the past 3 years? No. Roll your eyes all you want, but I'm referring to RIGHT NOW. They'll both have bad games once in a while, but I think they have very similar ceilings and stuff right now. If Cueto was bounced up and down on the Cincy-Louisville shuttle his minor league & mlb numbers might look eerily similar to Homer's. It just seems like many here are much too quick to call Homer a bust or to ship him out. His age gets overlooked much too easily imo.
He didn't get shuttled because he showed he could be a productive big league pitcher on a consistent basis, Homer hasn't.

RANDY IN INDY
05-12-2010, 04:50 PM
Good and bad. It's what you get, a lot of times, with young pitchers. I'm surprised that more people can't understand it before they are ready to jump off the ledge.

_Sir_Charles_
05-12-2010, 04:57 PM
He didn't get shuttled because he showed he could be a productive big league pitcher on a consistent basis, Homer hasn't.

My point was that Homer was rushed to the bigs WELL before he was even close to ready. He got killed as you would expect. His confidence plummets...and then they send him back down. Then he starts to pull it together in the minors again...and they rush him back up only to get creamed because he's again not ready yet. And they reward him by pushing him back down and further lowering his confidence. Rinse and repeat. Add in the spring training where he dominated and was rewarded by being shipped down again. If this sort of thing was done to Cueto...he wouldn't have had the success he's had at the bigs. He was developed properly and has slowly settled in at the majors. Everyone...no, scratch that (I get in trouble when I say everyone even though I 'mean' lots of people)....SOME people tend to only look at the results and forget the process. With a young pitcher coming out of high school with the kind of hype Homer had...the process matters a great deal.

It's taken Homer longer to reach a balance point of sorts, but right now I say he's pretty comparable to Cueto currently. Hopefully that's clearer.

Benihana
05-12-2010, 05:19 PM
My point was that Homer was rushed to the bigs WELL before he was even close to ready. He got killed as you would expect. His confidence plummets...and then they send him back down. Then he starts to pull it together in the minors again...and they rush him back up only to get creamed because he's again not ready yet. And they reward him by pushing him back down and further lowering his confidence. Rinse and repeat. Add in the spring training where he dominated and was rewarded by being shipped down again. If this sort of thing was done to Cueto...he wouldn't have had the success he's had at the bigs. He was developed properly and has slowly settled in at the majors. Everyone...no, scratch that (I get in trouble when I say everyone even though I 'mean' lots of people)....SOME people tend to only look at the results and forget the process. With a young pitcher coming out of high school with the kind of hype Homer had...the process matters a great deal.

It's taken Homer longer to reach a balance point of sorts, but right now I say he's pretty comparable to Cueto currently. Hopefully that's clearer.

Wow, if this isn't a pot full of excuses. If Bailey was pretty comparable to Cueto currently, then why are their 2010 numbers so different? And they're not just kind of different. They are very different, even after today's performance (which I congratulate him on.)

I hope Bailey pitches the way he did today for the rest of the year, and many years after that. I also hope that Devin Mesoraco continues to OPS over 1.000, and Drew Stubbs continues to hit like he did today, and blah blah blah. Sadly, reality and past performance tells us that some (if not all) of this won't happen.

Enough with the negativity. My point is that I'll still take Cueto over Bailey, every day of the week.

_Sir_Charles_
05-12-2010, 06:16 PM
Wow, if this isn't a pot full of excuses. If Bailey was pretty comparable to Cueto currently, then why are their 2010 numbers so different? And they're not just kind of different. They are very different, even after today's performance (which I congratulate him on.)

You're reading too much into it. The original topic was about the last 3 or 4 starts. I was pointing out the fact that Cueto had one monster game and Bailey had one stinker of a game in those 3 (4 for cueto at the time...before today's game). Take out those 2 starts and their numbers are very similar. I wasn't talking about all year, or their whole careers...but these past 3 starts (now 4).

As for a pot full of excuses...I'm not making excuses...just pointing out facts in regards to how the Reds mishandled Bailey. Is anybody here going to dispute that they bungled his development in a BIG way?

As for them being comparable and similar...
Both are quite young
Both are fireballers
Both are terribly inconsistent
Both are considered to have TOR type of stuff
Both have problems with long balls
Both have problems with pitch counts and going deep into games
Both have problems with getting rattled after a big inning
Both have problems with focus
Both have had stretches where they simply dominated
Both have had stretches where the fans wanted to dump them in the Ohio River

I'd say they're pretty comparable. The numbers will fluctuate, but the similarities abound IMO.

Benihana
05-12-2010, 06:21 PM
You're reading too much into it. The original topic was about the last 3 or 4 starts. I was pointing out the fact that Cueto had one monster game and Bailey had one stinker of a game in those 3 (4 for cueto at the time...before today's game). Take out those 2 starts and their numbers are very similar. I wasn't talking about all year, or their whole careers...but these past 3 starts (now 4).

As for a pot full of excuses...I'm not making excuses

Ugh, I thought we've been over this a million times with the Drew Stubbs argument. In a game of statistics and averages, you cannot cherry-pick days or weeks or even months. The full body of work is the full body of work. It speaks for itself. I don't believe you can EVER look at the last three starts made by a pitcher and claim that he has bucked any kind of trend. You DEFINITELY can't do it if you are going to remove one of those three starts from the record to try to prove your point. That's just ridiculous.

_Sir_Charles_
05-12-2010, 06:27 PM
Ugh, I thought we've been over this a million times with the Drew Stubbs argument. In a game of statistics and averages, you cannot cherry-pick days or weeks or even months. The full body of work is the full body of work. It speaks for itself. I don't believe you can EVER look at the last three starts made by a pitcher and claim that he has bucked any kind of trend. You DEFINITELY can't do it if you are going to remove one of those three starts from the record to try to prove your point. That's just ridiculous.

Wow. I wasn't cherry picking. I was talking SPECIFICALLY about the numbers in the post by Brutus. You might want to re-read some. I was talking about how Homer has been raked over the coals here (especially after that previous bad start) and was pointing out that he had just previously had 2 pretty darned GOOD starts, that were strikingly similar to Cueto's during that same stretch. It's starting to make me wonder what you think my point was because you're reading WAAAAY too much into this. And I've never claimed he's "bucked" a trend.

TRF
05-12-2010, 06:40 PM
Ugh, I thought we've been over this a million times with the Drew Stubbs argument. In a game of statistics and averages, you cannot cherry-pick days or weeks or even months. The full body of work is the full body of work. It speaks for itself. I don't believe you can EVER look at the last three starts made by a pitcher and claim that he has bucked any kind of trend. You DEFINITELY can't do it if you are going to remove one of those three starts from the record to try to prove your point. That's just ridiculous.

Really? So the full body of work is all that counts? Chris Carpenter says hi.

Mario-Rijo
05-12-2010, 07:01 PM
Good and bad. It's what you get, a lot of times, with young pitchers. I'm surprised that more people can't understand it before they are ready to jump off the ledge.

Well I don't really look at the production perse' if I did I wouldn't have been such a staunch defender of Todd Coffey or Matt Belisle just off the top of my head. You have to look beyond the numbers and at the actual performance. Homer is alot like Belisle in my estimation I think they are/were sometimes both victims of self doubt and aren't always sharp mechanically speaking. I am watching Belisle pitch now and hearing about how his turn around was due to gaining confidence in himself at AAA being thrust into the closers role and told he had to get "this attitude". His pitching coach then said it wasn't a stuff issue but a self confidence issue. I think Homer has bouts of this which leads to his control issues, well that and his long lanky mechanics. The difference in them I think is stuff more specifically their fastballs and I still wonder if Homers is too straight. Belisle's isn't better but I think he just always used it better i.e. located it better and threw it with some movement. I think Baileys is fine and has enough movement when it's 91-92 but when he fires it up there consistently as hard as 94-95 he gets rocked and he just keeps trying to throw it harder due to that lack of confidence. As I said I think he could become an effective 3 or 4 but I just don't see him being a TOR starter. Now can we win with him sure but not at what we thought he could be IMO.

Cueto OTOH when he stays within himself and doesn't also try to overdo it and gets away from his mechanics he's a pretty good arm. I just attribute his struggles to youth strictly. Homers struggles are more complex and more plentiful as to reasons why and therefore makes him less likely of the 2 to figure it out, at least as a Red. Now I'm no pitching coach this is just what I think I see based on observations and I may be wrong but until I hear or see something that makes more sense this is what I will believe.

_Sir_Charles_
05-12-2010, 07:07 PM
Last season is a pretty decent example of why I consider Cueto & Bailey to be similar at this stage.

Cueto had basically 3 seasons last year. He started out on fire and went 6-4 with a 2.17 era (32/13 k/bb ratio). He then followed that up immediately with a stretch of stinking the place up to the tune of 2-6 with an era over 8.00 for about 2 months. He then did another about face and finished the year up going 3-1 with about a 3.50 era over the last month or so.

Homer didn't really come up until about mid-season, but he also had a jekyll & hyde season. His first 8 weeks up or so he struggled with an era over 6.00. But then turned it completely around with about a dominating of a stretch that I've seen in a while from a Reds starter. He went 6-1 with a 1.70 era over just under 60 innings for the past couple months.

I'll be honest, I wouldn't expect anything less than this kind of up and down from a young pitcher. Mike Leake right now is rolling along fantastically. But he's a young pitcher too...he's going to hit that bump in the road that'll de-rail him for a month or so. I hope that he's the exception to the rule, but Cueto & Homer aren't. Cueto's just had more consistency with his time up in the bigs and they've shown him much more patience than they have Bailey...as have the fans, being my main point.

Mario-Rijo
05-12-2010, 07:19 PM
Last season is a pretty decent example of why I consider Cueto & Bailey to be similar at this stage.

Cueto had basically 3 seasons last year. He started out on fire and went 6-4 with a 2.17 era (32/13 k/bb ratio). He then followed that up immediately with a stretch of stinking the place up to the tune of 2-6 with an era over 8.00 for about 2 months. He then did another about face and finished the year up going 3-1 with about a 3.50 era over the last month or so.

Homer didn't really come up until about mid-season, but he also had a jekyll & hyde season. His first 8 weeks up or so he struggled with an era over 6.00. But then turned it completely around with about a dominating of a stretch that I've seen in a while from a Reds starter. He went 6-1 with a 1.70 era over just under 60 innings for the past couple months.

I'll be honest, I wouldn't expect anything less than this kind of up and down from a young pitcher. Mike Leake right now is rolling along fantastically. But he's a young pitcher too...he's going to hit that bump in the road that'll de-rail him for a month or so. I hope that he's the exception to the rule, but Cueto & Homer aren't. Cueto's just had more consistency with his time up in the bigs and they've shown him much more patience than they have Bailey...as have the fans, being my main point.

Well sure Leake is gonna have his ups and downs no doubt about it. But he has a much better feel for pitching than these guys do and he has great confidence in his ability along with good stuff. He's not gonna have such low lows and especially not such prolonged bouts of it. Even Cueto doesn't go thru what Bailey does which is times when he just can't do anything right. Why has Cueto's stuff is better as well and that is the big difference between them IMO.

_Sir_Charles_
05-12-2010, 07:42 PM
Well sure Leake is gonna have his ups and downs no doubt about it. But he has a much better feel for pitching than these guys do and he has great confidence in his ability along with good stuff. He's not gonna have such low lows and especially not such prolonged bouts of it. Even Cueto doesn't go thru what Bailey does which is times when he just can't do anything right. Why has Cueto's stuff is better as well and that is the big difference between them IMO.

IMO you've hit the nail on the head here. One word. Confidence.

Leake's never had a dent in his...ever, from what I can tell in his college career.
Cueto's only had one extended bad stretch (in the middle of last season) and he's rebounded.
Bailey's confidence has been repeatedly pounded on by Reds Management with their screw ups and poor judgment.

Of course, had Bailey been lights out each time he was brought up, the Reds wouldn't have demoted him repeatedly...but to expect that from a 20-23 year old is asking a bit much IMO.

Benihana
05-12-2010, 09:23 PM
Really? So the full body of work is all that counts? Chris Carpenter says hi.

Didn't say that. Notice in my original post on this thread I talk about trends. Johnny Cueto's numbers have trended in a positive direction every year (also known as showing improvement.) Homer Bailey's numbers have not, (especially prior to today's outing- which was when this conversation started.)

thatcoolguy_22
05-13-2010, 04:20 AM
Homer will be better, I said it. ;)

Bringing Leake into this isn't really beneficial to the discussion either. He is on a hot start. It just happens that his hot start coincided with the beginning of his career. If say in July he has an 8 game stretch with an ERA around 7 then the Reds community will be screaming to send him to AAA, it just hasn't happened yet (but it will). Anyone remember when Cueto came onto the scene???

I think there are a lot of similarities between Homer/Cueto right now outside of the numbers, and I agree with a lot of what Sir Charles was saying. The cherry picking stats... not so much ;) Beni, you can't compare these guys career for career with development. Many are the numbers of pitchers who spent their first few hundred innings getting shelled before learning how to pitch, while few are those that came in instantly to be league average or better. I wonder what a list of tall lanky guys look like on a development track vs a more compact pitcher? That would be interesting... I will give you Homer blew up until the last 8 starts or so of last season, but what does 2007 have to do with how he will pitch in 2010? He has progressed and gone through the ringer. Both are poised to start throwing the rest of this year effectively (even though I think Homer relied too heavily on his FB against the pirates). Just my .02