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camisadelgolf
05-10-2010, 02:20 AM
I know this is incredibly premature, but maybe a good discussion can come out of it.
black = staying on the 40-man roster
red = leaving the 40-man roster
yellow = eligible for the rule five draft
green = being added to the 40-man roster

C
Ryan Hanigan
Ramon Hernandez
Corky Miller
Wilkin Castillo
Chris Denove
Brandon Yarbrough
Devin Mesoraco
If Corky Miller ends the season on the 40-man roster, I'm sure he'll be non-tendered. Castillo, Denove, and Yarbrough are all fringe talents, but if any of them have a big year, we could see them added. Even if Mesoraco tanks this year, it's unlikely the Reds would give up on their investment so early.

IF
Joey Votto
Brandon Phillips
Scott Rolen
Paul Janish
Drew Sutton
Chris Valaika
Yonder Alonso
Orlando Cabrera
Miguel Cairo
Kris Negron
Miguel Rojas
Carlos Mendez
Jake Kahaulelio
Jose Castro
Kevyn Feiner
Chris Burke
Eric Eymann
Mike Griffin
Jose Gualdron
Todd Frazier
Zack Cozart
The way Cabrera has played, it's doubtful he'll be worth the option. Miguel Cairo doesn't deserve to be on a major league roster, so I really doubt he'll be around by the end of the season, let alone December. There is a lot of minor league depth, but Frazier and Cozart are the only guys who might get significant playing time at the major league level. Miguel Rojas' bat should prevent him from sticking with a team.

OF
Jonny Gomes
Drew Stubbs
Jay Bruce
Chris Dickerson
Chris Heisey
Juan Francisco
Laynce Nix
Wladimir Balentien
Sean Henry
Luis Terrero
Josh Anderson
Sean Danielson
Denis Phipps
Justin Reed
Danny Dorn
Jonny Gomes' contract might be bought out, and Nix will likely be non-tendered (again). Other than that, we might see Balentien given another shot and/or Dorn finally earning a promotion.

SP
Mike Leake
Homer Bailey
Johnny Cueto
Edinson Volquez
Travis Wood
Matt Maloney
Aroldis Chapman
Sam LeCure
Bronson Arroyo
Aaron Harang
Dallas Buck
Justin Lehr
Tom Cochran
Alex Smit
Scott Carroll
Travis Webb
James Avery
Curtis Partch
Evan Hildenbrandt
My guess is that Harang and Arroyo will be traded by the time the deadline comes around. If not, they'll likely have their contracts bought out. If Dallas Buck turns things around, he could be added to the 40-man roster, but other than that, there aren't many names worth mentioning.

RP
Francisco Cordero
Nick Masset
Jared Burton
Micah Owings
Daniel Ray Herrera
Carlos Fisher
Bill Bray
Enerio Del Rosario
Logan Ondrusek
Jordan Smith
Phil Valiquette
Arthur Rhodes
Mike Lincoln
Jon Adkins
Ben Jukich
Chad Reineke
Federico Baez
Lee Tabor
Terrell Young
Daryl Harang
Ruben Medina
Jesus Delgado
Sean Watson
Jordan Hotchkiss
Aguido Gonzalez
Scott Gaffney
Drew Bowman
Jeff Jeffords
Derrik Lutz
Doug Salinas
Junior Martinez
Jerry Gil
Jeremy Horst
Joe Krebs
Jose Arredondo
Daryl Thompson
I could see Rhodes or Lincoln getting an extension before the end of the season, but I hope not. None of the guys I highlighted are locks to get added to the 40-man roster, but between these four guys plus Ben Jukich, I have to figure they'll round out the roster if no one is added before the draft.

nemesis
05-10-2010, 02:26 AM
Wow. Quite a list.

I'm sure trades that will happen between now and August 31st will be deciding factors on who is added and who isn't. What this does show, is a ton of payroll and roster flexibility going into next season which was something we lacked heading into this year. Not that I see the Reds as big players in the FA Market next year but they might be able to acquire a veteran player who has a manageable non-roster impeding contract.

redsmetz
05-10-2010, 10:03 AM
Cam, any chance of changing that Yellow font? It's really hard to read.

camisadelgolf
05-10-2010, 11:10 AM
Cam, any chance of changing that Yellow font? It's really hard to read.
It's too late. :( I'll send a note to the mods, though.

GOYA
05-10-2010, 11:30 AM
How's that?


I know this is incredibly premature, but maybe a good discussion can come out of it.
black = staying on the 40-man roster
red = leaving the 40-man roster
yellow = eligible for the rule five draft
green = being added to the 40-man roster

C
Ryan Hanigan
Ramon Hernandez
Corky Miller
Wilkin Castillo
Chris Denove
Brandon Yarbrough
Devin Mesoraco
If Corky Miller ends the season on the 40-man roster, I'm sure he'll be non-tendered. Castillo, Denove, and Yarbrough are all fringe talents, but if any of them have a big year, we could see them added. Even if Mesoraco tanks this year, it's unlikely the Reds would give up on their investment so early.

IF
Joey Votto
Brandon Phillips
Scott Rolen
Paul Janish
Drew Sutton
Chris Valaika
Yonder Alonso
Orlando Cabrera
Miguel Cairo
Kris Negron
Miguel Rojas
Carlos Mendez
Jake Kahaulelio
Jose Castro
Kevyn Feiner
Chris Burke
Eric Eymann
Mike Griffin
Jose Gualdron
Todd Frazier
Zack Cozart
The way Cabrera has played, it's doubtful he'll be worth the option. Miguel Cairo doesn't deserve to be on a major league roster, so I really doubt he'll be around by the end of the season, let alone December. There is a lot of minor league depth, but Frazier and Cozart are the only guys who might get significant playing time at the major league level. Miguel Rojas' bat should prevent him from sticking with a team.

OF
Jonny Gomes
Drew Stubbs
Jay Bruce
Chris Dickerson
Chris Heisey
Juan Francisco
Laynce Nix
Wladimir Balentien
Sean Henry
Luis Terrero
Josh Anderson
Sean Danielson
Denis Phipps
Justin Reed
Danny Dorn
Jonny Gomes' contract might be bought out, and Nix will likely be non-tendered (again). Other than that, we might see Balentien given another shot and/or Dorn finally earning a promotion.

SP
Mike Leake
Homer Bailey
Johnny Cueto
Edinson Volquez
Travis Wood
Matt Maloney
Aroldis Chapman
Sam LeCure
Bronson Arroyo
Aaron Harang
Dallas Buck
Justin Lehr
Tom Cochran
Alex Smit
Scott Carroll
Travis Webb
James Avery
Curtis Partch
Evan Hildenbrandt
My guess is that Harang and Arroyo will be traded by the time the deadline comes around. If not, they'll likely have their contracts bought out. If Dallas Buck turns things around, he could be added to the 40-man roster, but other than that, there aren't many names worth mentioning.

RP
Francisco Cordero
Nick Masset
Jared Burton
Micah Owings
Daniel Ray Herrera
Carlos Fisher
Bill Bray
Enerio Del Rosario
Logan Ondrusek
Jordan Smith
Phil Valiquette
Arthur Rhodes
Mike Lincoln
Jon Adkins
Ben Jukich
Chad Reineke
Federico Baez
Lee Tabor
Terrell Young
Daryl Harang
Ruben Medina
Jesus Delgado
Sean Watson
Jordan Hotchkiss
Aguido Gonzalez
Scott Gaffney
Drew Bowman
Jeff Jeffords
Derrik Lutz
Doug Salinas
Junior Martinez
Jerry Gil
Jeremy Horst
Joe Krebs
Jose Arredondo
Daryl Thompson
I could see Rhodes or Lincoln getting an extension before the end of the season, but I hope not. None of the guys I highlighted are locks to get added to the 40-man roster, but between these four guys plus Ben Jukich, I have to figure they'll round out the roster if no one is added before the draft.

camisadelgolf
05-10-2010, 12:03 PM
I'm not sure if it's much of an improvement, but thank you for the effort, GOYA.

Boss-Hog
05-10-2010, 12:20 PM
Cam, any chance of changing that Yellow font? It's really hard to read.
Done - it's now purple.

camisadelgolf
05-10-2010, 02:00 PM
Thank you, Boss.

redsmetz
05-10-2010, 08:06 PM
Thank you, Boss.

Yes, so much easier to read.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-11-2010, 10:23 PM
Great work on this, camisa.

Love it.

HokieRed
05-11-2010, 11:24 PM
To start the specific discussion, I'm not at all sure Ramon Hernandez will be rotating off.

camisadelgolf
05-12-2010, 06:36 AM
To start the specific discussion, I'm not at all sure Ramon Hernandez will be rotating off.
I think there's a good chance he'll be back, but I think it'd be a situation where he re-signs after the rule five draft.

LoganBuck
05-12-2010, 08:49 AM
I am almost 100% certain that Hildenbrandt and Mesoraco do not have to be added to the roster this year. Rojas might not need it yet either.

camisadelgolf
05-12-2010, 09:04 AM
I am almost 100% certain that Hildenbrandt and Mesoraco do not have to be added to the roster this year. Rojas might not need it yet either.
I think you're right about Hildenbrandt, but I'm pretty sure the other two are eligible for the rule five draft after this season.

camisadelgolf
06-30-2010, 06:29 PM
Here's an update:

black = staying on the 40-man roster
red = leaving the 40-man roster
purple = eligible for the rule five draft
green = being added to the 40-man roster

C
Ryan Hanigan
Ramon Hernandez
Corky Miller

Wilkin Castillo
Chris Denove
Brandon Yarbrough
Devin Mesoraco
If Corky Miller ends the season on the 40-man roster, I'm sure he'll be non-tendered. Castillo, Denove, and Yarbrough are all fringe talents, but if any of them have a big year, we could see them added. Even if Mesoraco tanks this year, it's unlikely the Reds would give up on their investment so early.

IF
Joey Votto
Brandon Phillips
Scott Rolen
Paul Janish
Drew Sutton
Chris Valaika
Yonder Alonso
Orlando Cabrera
Miguel Cairo
Kris Negron
Miguel Rojas
Carlos Mendez
Jake Kahaulelio
Jose Castro
Kevyn Feiner
Eric Eymann
Mike Griffin
Jose Gualdron
Todd Frazier
Zack Cozart
The way Cabrera has played, it's doubtful his option will be picked up. Miguel Cairo has been surprisingly not-horrible, but there's no reason to extend his contract. There is a lot of minor league depth, but Frazier and Cozart are the only guys who are expected to get more than a cup of coffee at the major league level. Miguel Rojas' bat should prevent him from sticking with a team. You also have to like what Kahaulelio has done, but it's extremely doubtful he'll ready for a major league roster spot.

OF
Jonny Gomes
Drew Stubbs
Jay Bruce
Chris Dickerson
Chris Heisey
Juan Francisco
Laynce Nix
Wladimir Balentien
Sean Henry
Luis Terrero
Gary Matthews, Jr.
Sean Danielson
Denis Phipps
Justin Reed
Danny Dorn
It'd be awfully difficult not to pick up Gomes' option, and Nix will likely be non-tendered (again). Other than that, we might see Balentien given another shot and/or Dorn finally earning a promotion. Here's praying that GMJ doesn't take a 40-man roster spot from a prospect . . .

SP
Mike Leake
Homer Bailey
Johnny Cueto
Edinson Volquez
Travis Wood
Matt Maloney
Aroldis Chapman
Sam LeCure
Bronson Arroyo
Aaron Harang
Dallas Buck
Justin Lehr
Tom Cochran
Scott Carroll
Travis Webb
James Avery
Curtis Partch
Daryl Thompson
Evan Hildenbrandt
My guess is that Harang and Arroyo and/or bought out before the draft. Arroyo has a pretty good chance of sticking around for one more year, though. Scott Carroll has put up good numbers against younger competition, so we may see some interest in him. If Daryl Thompson pitches for a month without an injury, we could see him back up as a reliever in September.

RP
Francisco Cordero
Nick Masset
Jared Burton
Micah Owings
Daniel Ray Herrera
Carlos Fisher
Bill Bray
Enerio Del Rosario
Logan Ondrusek
Jordan Smith
Phil Valiquette
Arthur Rhodes
Mike Lincoln
Jon Adkins
Ben Jukich
Chad Reineke
Federico Baez
Lee Tabor
Terrell Young
Ruben Medina
Jesus Delgado
Sean Watson
Jordan Hotchkiss
Aguido Gonzalez
Scott Gaffney
Drew Bowman
Jeff Jeffords
Derrik Lutz
Doug Salinas
Junior Martinez
Joe Krebs
Jerry Gil
Jeremy Horst
Jose Arredondo
I could see Rhodes getting an extension, but I think it makes the most sense to offer arbitration and hope for an early draft pick. Joe Krebs has been great as organizational filler, but he's apparently lacking big league stuff. Ben Jukich might be picked in the draft again if he isn't protected. Chad Reineke is pitching like he might deserve a September call-up. Bray will have to pitch well to avoid being non-tendered. The same might also be true of Micah Owings.

camisadelgolf
08-08-2010, 07:44 PM
black = staying on the 40-man roster
red = leaving the 40-man roster
yellow = eligible for the rule five draft
green = being added to the 40-man roster

C
Ryan Hanigan
Ramon Hernandez
Corky Miller
Wilkin Castillo
Chris Denove
Brandon Yarbrough
Devin Mesoraco
If Corky Miller ends the season on the 40-man roster, I'm sure he'll be non-tendered. Castillo, Denove, and Yarbrough are all fringe talents, but Castillo is the only one of those three with a chance of being protected. However, that's more a result of his intangibles than anything else.

IF
Joey Votto
Brandon Phillips
Scott Rolen
Paul Janish
Chris Valaika
Yonder Alonso
Orlando Cabrera
Miguel Cairo
Kris Negron
Miguel Rojas
Carlos Mendez
Jake Kahaulelio
Jose Castro
Kevyn Feiner
Eric Eymann
Mike Griffin
Jose Gualdron
Todd Frazier
Zack Cozart
The way Cabrera has played, it's doubtful he'll be worth the option pick-up. Miguel Cairo could be extended, but I hope he isn't for obvious reasons. There is a lot of minor league depth, but Frazier and Cozart are the only guys who are expected to get significant playing time at the major league level. Miguel Rojas' bat should prevent him from sticking with a team, so don't look for him to be protected. Kris Negron has intriguing numbers, but he's lacking in physical tools. If Jake Kahaulelio finishes the year strong, he could be protected.

OF
Jonny Gomes
Drew Stubbs
Jay Bruce
Chris Dickerson
Chris Heisey
Juan Francisco
Laynce Nix
Wladimir Balentien
Sean Henry
Luis Terrero
Denis Phipps
Justin Reed
Danny Dorn
It'd be awfully difficult to buy out Jonny Gomes' contract despite what sabermetrics have to say about him. Other than that, we might see Balentien given another shot and/or Dorn finally earning a promotion.

SP
Mike Leake
Homer Bailey
Johnny Cueto
Edinson Volquez
Travis Wood
Matt Maloney
Aroldis Chapman
Sam LeCure
Bronson Arroyo
Aaron Harang
Dallas Buck
Justin Lehr
Tom Cochran
Scott Carroll
Travis Webb
James Avery
Curtis Partch
Evan Hildenbrandt
Jordan Hotchkiss
Daryl Thompson
Harang and Arroyo both might have their contracts bought out. Scott Carroll and Jordan Hotchkiss are having big years, but they're both old for their respective levels, and you really have to wonder what the Reds think of them.

RP
Francisco Cordero
Nick Masset
Jared Burton
Daniel Ray Herrera
Carlos Fisher
Enerio Del Rosario
Logan Ondrusek
Jordan Smith
Phil Valiquette
Arthur Rhodes
Mike Lincoln
Russ Springer
Micah Owings
Bill Bray
Ben Jukich
Chad Reineke
Federico Baez
Lee Tabor
Ruben Medina
Jesus Delgado
Aguido Gonzalez
Scott Gaffney
Drew Bowman
Jeff Jeffords
Derrik Lutz
Doug Salinas
Junior Martinez
Jason Isringhausen
Jerry Gil
Joe Krebs
Jeremy Horst
Jose Arredondo
I could see Rhodes or Lincoln getting an extension before the end of the season, but I doubt it. You know Isringhausen will be on the Major League roster before the end of the year, but his status for next year is anyone's guess at this point.

In review, I have 36 names on the 40-man roster for next year. A lot of these are extreme long shots, but the leading candidates for those remaining four spots are:
Joe Krebs
Jason Isringhausen
Russ Springer
Ramon Hernandez
Ben Jukich
Bill Bray
Micah Owings
Kris Negron
Jake Kahaulelio
Arthur Rhodes
Daryl Thompson
Scott Carroll
Bronson Arroyo
Aaron Harang
Wladimir Balentien
Sean Henry
Wilkin Castillo
Miguel Rojas

For discussion's sake, which four of the 18 listed above would you add to the 40-man roster?

mth123
08-08-2010, 08:44 PM
I don't think Dorn will be added. That leaves 5 spots. Bray will be one. Jordan Hotchkiss should get one. Scott Carroll gets another. I'm guessing Isringhausen. Maybe Miguel Rojas or Kris Negron would be my other. Wlad and Henry probably walk as do Thompson and Buck. Joe Krebs might be an interesting decision that may come down to he or Horst. I wonder about Danny Rae and I'd personally keep both Horst and Krebs and let him go.

I'm guessing some deals will be made to thin the ranks, but maybe not.

HokieRed
08-08-2010, 08:50 PM
My guess is Arroyo will be back. This team's a contender next year and I don't think Walt will risk that by turning the pitching staff over entirely to the young 'uns. I think he'll want one starter with more experience than Cueto. I'd guess there's a very good chance Ramon is back too. I liked the catching tandem before this season and I still do; I don't see any way within the organization to improve on it in 2011. Maybe Mes by 2012 but not by 2011.

mth123
08-08-2010, 09:00 PM
My guess is Arroyo will be back. This team's a contender next year and I don't think Walt will risk that by turning the pitching staff over entirely to the young 'uns. I think he'll want one starter with more experience than Cueto. I'd guess there's a very good chance Ramon is back too. I liked the catching tandem before this season and I still do; I don't see any way within the organization to improve on it in 2011. Maybe Mes by 2012 but not by 2011.

Arroyo would take a spot. They could ask Ramon to wait until after the draft.

cinreds21
08-08-2010, 09:16 PM
Out of that here's my list.

Mes
Frazier
Cozy
Jake
Carroll
Hotchkiss

and my two big queston marks are:
Salinas and Krebs

camisadelgolf
08-08-2010, 11:36 PM
Out of that here's my list.

Mes
Frazier
Cozy
Jake
Carroll
Hotchkiss

and my two big queston marks are:
Salinas and Krebs
Salinas was a minor league rule five draft acquisition. There's no chance he'll be protected imo.

cinreds21
08-09-2010, 01:03 AM
Oh ok, did not realize that. My bad.

camisadelgolf
08-12-2010, 09:58 PM
One added bonus of trading away Chris Dickerson is that it freed up another spot on the 40-man roster. That leaves five spaces to be filled up by the following players:

arbitration eligible
club option
free agent

Bronson Arroyo
Wladimir Balentien
Bill Bray
Orlando Cabrera
Miguel Cairo
Scott Carroll
Wilkin Castillo
Danny Dorn
Jim Edmonds
Aaron Harang
Sean Henry
Ramon Hernandez
Jason Isringhausen
Ben Jukich
Jake Kahaulelio
Joe Krebs
Mike Lincoln
Kris Negron
Laynce Nix
Micah Owings
Arthur Rhodes
Miguel Rojas
Russ Springer
Daryl Thompson

camisadelgolf
08-13-2010, 02:28 PM
I wasn't sure that this needed its own thread, so I'll just post it here.
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2010/08/war_and_the_rul.php

The Rule 5 Draft dates back over a century, and Retrosheet has a fair chunk of Rule 5 data. The Rule 5 draft as we know it began somewhere around 1965, so I took all drafted players since then and their WAR in the following years. As it turns out, the Rule 5 Draft is a market for more-or-less freely-available replacement-level talent.