Thoughts on David Sappelt

[kfm]

My wife is from Buffalo so I have tried to follow Sappelt since he became a Red. I was curious to hear the thoughts of some of you all who follow the minor league players very closely. So what are the thoughts on Sappelt in terms of tools, major league future and if there is a comparable major league player. Thanks.

[icehole3]

I like Sappelt, some dont. He reminds me of Billy Hatcher, fast, scrappy with a little power

[lollipopcurve]

Underrated prospect. I like icehole's Hatcher comparison.

[mace]

The word has been that he is a tremendous defensive outfielder, covering a lot of ground. The rap has been that, while fast, he's a reckless and unpolished baserunner, lacking in judgment and fundamentals. His hitting seems to be somewhere in the middle--possibly on the plus side, I'd say. It does seem that he's making fairly swift progress through the system.

[dougdirt]

I think Sappelt is at least a 4th outfielder type because of his defense. For someone with his speed, he is a poor base runner. At the plate, he isn't much of a power guy at all. I could see him slugging .400, but I wouldn't expect much more than that. Maybe a .275/.325/.400 type of hitter if he continues to progress. The defense is legit though.

[Mario-Rijo]

Ryan Freel without the pop or polish at the plate. Only smaller.

[kfm]

Thanks everyone, I appreciate your insight.

[Red Daddy]

I think Sappelt is at least a 4th outfielder type because of his defense. For someone with his speed, he is a poor base runner. At the plate, he isn't much of a power guy at all. I could see him slugging .400, but I wouldn't expect much more than that. Maybe a .275/.325/.400 type of hitter if he continues to progress. The defense is legit though.

You're getting there Doug!!!! I really like Sappelt. He went to college in my state and I always heard good things about him. He was a player of the year in college in his conference. I've heard accounts by players that he has a wicked swing, which hasn't completely translated to the minors yet. He has great speed and great defense. I liked the Billy Hatcher comparison and didn't think much of the Ryan Freel lite comparison. By the way...he did homer last night!!!

[BuckeyeRedleg]

I'm intrigued by Sappelt. His numbers kind of remind me of Chris Dickerson. In fact, that wouldn't be a bad ceiling comp for his future.

Right now I would have to think that he's got to be one of the top OF prospects in the Reds system. Considering Alonso and Francisco are not true OF'er's and Dorn is getting up there in age, and Heisey and Stubbs are already with the big club, Sappelt might just be the #1 true OF prospect (before the draft and signing of Perez) in the entire system.

[lollipopcurve]

Sappelt might just be the #1 true OF prospect (before the draft and signing of Perez) in the entire system.

Yorman.

[bubbachunk]

Yorman.

Duran

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Yorman.

Oh yes, I forgot about him.

[kfm]

I started this thread earlier this year because I have been following this guy since the reds drafted him and have been very impressed with him. Just curious if now a few months later and with what we have seen from Sappelt if anyone has any more thoughts on him.

[HokieRed]

Yorman.


I love Yorman but Yonder's still the best prospect. Watch him hit.

[muddie]

I started this thread earlier this year because I have been following this guy since the reds drafted him and have been very impressed with him. Just curious if now a few months later and with what we have seen from Sappelt if anyone has any more thoughts on him.

Easy enough to say the guy is ripping it with the bat. If you check the Southern League's batting averages this guy has been at, or on top a lot lately.

I wish the guy was a tad bigger but he can't do anything about that. That is my only question mark about the guy.

Question for you: His bio says he was born in Graham, NC. Yet I read that he is a native of Buffalo. How can both be true?

[corkedbat]

I'm intrigued by Sappelt. His numbers kind of remind me of Chris Dickerson. In fact, that wouldn't be a bad ceiling comp for his future.

Right now I would have to think that he's got to be one of the top OF prospects in the Reds system. Considering Alonso and Francisco are not true OF'er's and Dorn is getting up there in age, and Heisey and Stubbs are already with the big club, Sappelt might just be the #1 true OF prospect (before the draft and signing of Perez) in the entire system.

There is some truth in that. He is probably in the top five or so, but that also points to this team's reluctance to draft true corner OF (other that Bruce) dating back to Dunn & Kearns - which has been about 10 years now I believe. Not just premium picks either - throughout the draft.

This teams drafts boat loads of CFs and 4th/5th OF-types, but not much in the way of power potential. Pants' love for five toolers was legendary and ridiculous, but there's the other extreme too. We've seen that from the Reds recently and with Bruce's struggles, they may be set to start paying for it.

I believe the Reds need at least one corner OF bat with Plus power potential in each draft and a premium pick (at least the the top 5 or 6 rounds) every three years.

[dougdirt]

Easy enough to say the guy is ripping it with the bat. If you check the Southern league's batting averages this guy has been at, or on top a lot lately.

I wish the guy was a tad bigger but he can't do anything about that. That is my only question mark about the guy.

Question for you: His bio says he was born in Graham, NC. Yet I read that he is a native of Buffalo. How can both be true?

Moved at a very young age. Was born on vacation. Was born to parents in the military who were on a base in NC.

[mth123]

I think of Norris Hopper. I think he's a guy to sell if you get a good offer, but could help the bottom of the roster for cheap if needed.

[muddie]

Moved at a very young age. Was born on vacation. Was born to parents in the military who were on a base in NC.

Now that's a gem. Thanks dougdirt.

[camisadelgolf]

I've always been a big fan of his. In the off-season of the year he was drafted, I made comparisons of him to Kirby Puckett. I never said he would be anything close to Puckett's caliber, but I said not to write him off for simply being undersized. I could see him being a .280/.340/.440 center fielder with plus range. He's still somewhat raw, but he's constantly showing improvement.

[REDblooded]

I've always been a big fan of his. In the off-season of the year he was drafted, I made comparisons of him to Kirby Puckett. I never said he would be anything close to Puckett's caliber, but I said not to write him off for simply being undersized. I could see him being a .280/.340/.440 center fielder with plus range. He's still somewhat raw, but he's constantly showing improvement.

Definitely remember you being very high on him from day one.

[Mario-Rijo]

Definitely remember you being very high on him from day one.

I did initially but once I seen him at Dayton I lost some fervor. The kid has decent talent just needs a lot of polishing IMO. If he does that he can be an solid piece of a 25 man. A nice cheap backup CF option with the potential to be a good leadoff hitter.

[HokieRed]

This lowballing of Sappelt is hard to understand. I like Drew Stubbs but David Sappelt's having a better season this year than anything Drew Stubbs ever did in the minor leagues. Why's he Norris Hopper? (And additionally, he's so far ahead of Chris Dickerson at 23 that the comparison is laughable.)

[dougdirt]

This lowballing of Sappelt is hard to understand. I like Drew Stubbs but David Sappelt's having a better season this year than anything Drew Stubbs ever did in the minor leagues. Why's he Norris Hopper? (And additionally, he's so far ahead of Chris Dickerson at 23 that the comparison is laughable.)

Well, despite what Stubbs did in the minors, his upside was clearly a lot higher. He has the power to hit 25 HR's one day. He is a better defender (not that Sappelt isn't very good). He has a better arm. He has better speed. He is going to walk more.

I think the upside with Sappelt is a slightly above average hitting center fielder with outstanding defense. Nothing wrong with that at all. I think his ceiling is certainly higher than that of Norris Hopper. Sappelt has more HR's this year than Hopper hit in 5000 pro plate appearances (that would be 4 total in just over 5000 career PA).

[HokieRed]

Well, despite what Stubbs did in the minors, his upside was clearly a lot higher. He has the power to hit 25 HR's one day. He is a better defender (not that Sappelt isn't very good). He has a better arm. He has better speed. He is going to walk more.

I think the upside with Sappelt is a slightly above average hitting center fielder with outstanding defense. Nothing wrong with that at all. I think his ceiling is certainly higher than that of Norris Hopper. Sappelt has more HR's this year than Hopper hit in 5000 pro plate appearances (that would be 4 total in just over 5000 career PA).

I understand that about Stubbs, and I have been and continue to be a fan. My irritation, too, wasn't aimed at you. It just seems like Sappelt has a hard time getting recognized for what he's doing this year.

[mth123]

Well, despite what Stubbs did in the minors, his upside was clearly a lot higher. He has the power to hit 25 HR's one day. He is a better defender (not that Sappelt isn't very good). He has a better arm. He has better speed. He is going to walk more.

I think the upside with Sappelt is a slightly above average hitting center fielder with outstanding defense. Nothing wrong with that at all. I think his ceiling is certainly higher than that of Norris Hopper. Sappelt has more HR's this year than Hopper hit in 5000 pro plate appearances (that would be 4 total in just over 5000 career PA).

Yep, Hopper is probably a poor comp on my part, but I just don't get the sense that Sappelt will succeed in the big leagues much. I've underestimated his power though so maybe he will. He's not really better than anyone already in the majors though so a trade seems like a good idea and it seems like it would be selling high if done soon.

[cinreds21]

Sapp is a great scrappy player. He really has turned some heads this year and has put him self on the prospect map. I don't know if he's a starter but at worse a fourth outfielder.

[flash]

I usually just follow stats so most of what I say deals with those. You can't fake a .350 avg. From following Southern League stats all I can say is that they must have some big parks because it doesn't seem like anyone hits a lot of home runs there. He is averaging 1 HR for about every 40 SD's which id the same as Bruce this year. As far as batting lead-off, I don't think he has done it all year. He has batted 5th or sixth in the box scores.

I would say he has to be mix for next year. I can't see the Reds continue to put up with Stubbs batting .230 for a long time. Even with his speed. You probably need to throw a lasso around him on the basepaths. But even there most minor league teams have only a manager a hitting coach, and a pitching coach. (it never ceases to amaze me that the big club has 5-6 coachesand a manager. The minor league teams that really need the coaching have 3 at most.)I don't know if anyone has ever taught him the fine art of stealing.
He will probably go to Arizona this year and Louisville next year.

I say he will be in the mix though because I have not been overally impressed by the Reds outfield this year. Only Heisey is batting .300 and he is a back-up. At some point the syarters have got to made aware that someone can take their job. I'd bring Dorn up in September just to let Bruce know he is there

[sabometrics]

From following Southern League stats all I can say is that they must have some big parks because it doesn't seem like anyone hits a lot of home runs there.

Except for some kid named Stanton ;)


At some point the syarters have got to made aware that someone can take their job. I'd bring Dorn up in September just to let Bruce know he is there

I agree, that would be nice, but assuming Dickerson doesn't get hurt again (and I admit that may be quite the assumption), who do you take off the 40-man in favor of Dorn?

[muddie]

Directly from The Southern League's homepage this week...top story!



Carolina outfielder Dave Sappelt is not only leading a league in hitting for the first time, he's also getting to do it close to home so that family and friends can watch.
"My dad can finally come out and watch the games," said Sappelt, who hails from Graham, N.C. "It's only about an hour away. He and my little brother make it down a lot. That makes it good for all of us."

Sappelt, a starter for the North Division in the Southern League All-Star Game, has been putting on a good show for everyone, whether it is at the Mudcats' ballpark in Zebulon, east of Raleigh, or other stadiums around the league.

A .287 hitter coming into the season, Sappelt was batting .282 when he was promoted from Class A Advanced Lynchburg at the end of April. But the former Coastal Carolina standout has taken it up a notch since reaching Double-A.

Sappelt got a hit in his first at-bat with the Mudcats and hasn't cooled off. He batted .333 in May, nearly matched that with a .323 average in June and is up to .403 for July with 11 hits in his last 22 at-bats.

That gives Sappelt a league-leading .352 mark. It isn't a soft average, either. The 5-foot-9 right-handed hitter is slugging a league-best .527 with 13 doubles, seven triples and seven home runs. He has 49 RBIs in 74 games and has struck out just 38 times while posting a .399 on-base average -- third in the league.

"I did pretty good my first two years, but this is the best I've hit since college," said Sappelt, a ninth-round pick by the Reds in 2008. "Everything is going good right now."

Coastal Carolina advanced to the NCAA Super Regionals in 2008, and Sappelt was a major reason why. He hit .349 with 18 homers and 70 RBIs that season as a junior before passing up his final year with the Chanticleers to sign with the Reds.

Sappelt hit .299 with Billings in rookie ball during his first season, then a combined .281 with Dayton and Sarasota a year ago.

Ask Sappelt what the key has been to his improvement this season, and he quickly says, "My mechanics."

"I was raw in college," Sappelt said. "With metal bats, you can make mistakes and still get hits. With wood, you've got to hit it on the barrel. I'm doing that more often now and recognizing pitches better."

Until his junior year in high school, it looked like Sappelt's future might be in football. He was timed at 4.3 seconds in the 40-yard dash, and college recruiters covet that kind of speed. But the defensive back decided baseball was his sport.

"My body was getting too beat up in football," said the 195-pound Sappelt, "and I liked baseball better anyway."

Sappelt showed off his speed with 47 steals last year, but he remains a work in progress on the bases. He was caught 22 times a year ago, and this year is just 14-for-27 with the Mudcats.

Sappelt also hasn't taken full advantage of the comforts of home. He is actually hitting better on the road, with a .413 average away from Five County Stadium.

"My ballpark isn't a real easy place to hit in," he said, "but it's still nice to have people be able to come and watch me. It's been a lot of fun."

[Mario-Rijo]

This lowballing of Sappelt is hard to understand. I like Drew Stubbs but David Sappelt's having a better season this year than anything Drew Stubbs ever did in the minor leagues. Why's he Norris Hopper? (And additionally, he's so far ahead of Chris Dickerson at 23 that the comparison is laughable.)

The lowballing of Sappelt is because his ceiling isn't real high and despite AA production there is no gaurantees he will reach that mediocre to slightly above ceiling. I don't comprehend why people want to directly equate production at minor league levels with potential production at the major league level, it doesn't necessarily translate, it's a different game.

[RED VAN HOT]

Last year, it was reported that Sappelt had a weak arm, but that an injury was suspected. Can anyone provide an update?

[flash]

The lowballing of Sappelt is because his ceiling isn't real high and despite AA production there is no gaurantees he will reach that mediocre to slightly above ceiling. I don't comprehend why people want to directly equate production at minor league levels with potential production at the major league level, it doesn't necessarily translate, it's a different game.

I don't believe success in the minors is an indicator of success in the major leagues. Definitely not for pitchers. However I do feel that it is a prequesite. If you can't hit minor league pitching how will you ever hir major league pitching. I use .300 as a measuring point.

[RedsFanInBama]

The lowballing of Sappelt is because his ceiling isn't real high and despite AA production there is no gaurantees he will reach that mediocre to slightly above ceiling. I don't comprehend why people want to directly equate production at minor league levels with potential production at the major league level, it doesn't necessarily translate, it's a different game.
Who determines one's ceiling? Is there a committee that gets together and puts a stamp on players when they are drafted or signed?

[Mario-Rijo]

Who determines one's ceiling? Is there a committee that gets together and puts a stamp on players when they are drafted or signed?

Yeah they are called talent and skill.

[RedsFanInBama]

Yeah they are called talent and skill.

What was Ryan Hanigan's ceiling when he went undrafted? Must have been about High-A.

No doubt a "ceiling" is a very real thing, but us pretending to know it for a given player is not realistic. There are too many factors that go into baseball that can't be measured on a tools' sheet.

[HokieRed]

Who determines one's ceiling? Is there a committee that gets together and puts a stamp on players when they are drafted or signed?

I share your reservations about judgments from on high about players' "ceilings."

[camisadelgolf]

What was Ryan Hanigan's ceiling when he went undrafted? Must have been about High-A.

No doubt a "ceiling" is a very real thing, but us pretending to know it for a given player is not realistic. There are too many factors that go into baseball that can't be measured on a tools' sheet.
Ryan Hanigan clearly doesn't have power, and he has no speed. That's already two strikes right there. At best, he was a three-tool prospect. When you combine that with him being a backup on his college team, it's understandable that he was never seen as having a high ceiling. With that said, what Ryan Hanigan is currently doing for the Reds was always considered to be his ceiling. The Reds gave him a chance, and Hanigan has managed to be one of the very few to actually reach his ceiling.

On the flip side of that, players with higher ceilings don't need to fulfill all of their potential to help a team; Drew Stubbs is an excellent example of that. He's so naturally gifted that his inability to make contact doesn't stop him from being a very valuable player. However, if he ever reaches his ceiling, look out--he'll be a major superstar.

[sabometrics]

Ryan Hanigan clearly doesn't have power, and he has no speed. That's already two strikes right there. At best, he was a three-tool prospect. When you combine that with him being a backup on his college team, it's understandable that he was never seen as having a high ceiling. With that said, what Ryan Hanigan is currently doing for the Reds was always considered to be his ceiling. The Reds gave him a chance, and Hanigan has managed to be one of the very few to actually reach his ceiling.

On the flip side of that, players with higher ceilings don't need to fulfill all of their potential to help a team; Drew Stubbs is an excellent example of that. He's so naturally gifted that his inability to make contact doesn't stop him from being a very valuable player. However, if he ever reaches his ceiling, look out--he'll be a major superstar.

At age 23 in High-A Potomac, 2 years after being a NDFA, I don't think anyone thought Ryan Hanigan would sniff the major leagues. I'd think it would be pretty safe to say that he has far exceeded what his perceived "ceiling" was at 23, and there's no reason Sappelt can't do that too.

[dougdirt]

Ceilings can of course change. Guys can make changes in their swings that can change their skillsets. They can improve their diet/nutrition/work ethic to improve their body type, position and even speed.

Here is the main thing with Sappelt, as he has always been a fast guy with excellent range in CF who makes a lot of contact.... is the power improvement this year for real, or a by product of the stadiums he has been playing in? At home, his power is in line with where it has been for his career. On the road, its real good (.216 IsoP). If the power increase is legit, then he is showing an improved tool, one that no one really thought was as good as it is. That really is the only thing that has changed in his game. He isn't striking out less and while his walks are up a little bit, its not even a full percent better than it was in Dayton last season.

[camisadelgolf]

At age 23 in High-A Potomac, 2 years after being a NDFA, I don't think anyone thought Ryan Hanigan would sniff the major leagues. I'd think it would be pretty safe to say that he has far exceeded what his perceived "ceiling" was at 23, and there's no reason Sappelt can't do that too.
To be fair--and I know this because I was one of them--some of us (not necessarily on RedsZone but other sites) said he could be a Major League backup someday at that time. It wasn't until after his 2006 season that people were really starting to write him off. 2007 completely changed everyone's view on him, though.

[camisadelgolf]

Ceilings can of course change. Guys can make changes in their swings that can change their skillsets. They can improve their diet/nutrition/work ethic to improve their body type, position and even speed.

Here is the main thing with Sappelt, as he has always been a fast guy with excellent range in CF who makes a lot of contact.... is the power improvement this year for real, or a by product of the stadiums he has been playing in? At home, his power is in line with where it has been for his career. On the road, its real good (.216 IsoP). If the power increase is legit, then he is showing an improved tool, one that no one really thought was as good as it is. That really is the only thing that has changed in his game. He isn't striking out less and while his walks are up a little bit, its not even a full percent better than it was in Dayton last season.
Sappelt's power is slightly deceptive. He is very aggressive when it comes to taking the extra base, so if he succeeds in stretching a double into a triple, it improves his SLG; if he fails, there's no decrease. Wondering if Sappelt's power will stay with him in MLB is like wondering if Daniel Ray Herrera's strikeout rate would stay high. In other words, Sappelt has surprising power, but it won't be much a part of his game in the big leagues.

[dougdirt]

Sappelt's power is slightly deceptive. He is very aggressive when it comes to taking the extra base, so if he succeeds in stretching a double into a triple, it improves his SLG; if he fails, there's no decrease. Wondering if Sappelt's power will stay with him in MLB is like wondering if Daniel Ray Herrera's strikeout rate would stay high. In other words, Sappelt has surprising power, but it won't be much a part of his game in the big leagues.
Well I know he isn't going to be a 25 HR guy.... but if he can be a 12-15 HR guy, that is starter material. If he is a 5-10 HR guy, then he is a 4th outfielder in all likelihood.

[camisadelgolf]

Well I know he isn't going to be a 25 HR guy.... but if he can be a 12-15 HR guy, that is starter material. If he is a 5-10 HR guy, then he is a 4th outfielder in all likelihood.
All else staying the same, whether he hits 5 homeruns (.768 OPS) or 15 homeruns (.819 OPS), he'd still be a starting center fielder on a lot of teams. But for the sake of argument, we're basically talking about the difference between a fourth outfielder and a 'third' outfielder with the third outfielder being a center fielder.

As you're aware, center fielders don't require the same offensive output as corner outfielders. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I believe corner outfielders are generally expected to have an OPS around .810 while center fielders are expected to have an OPS around .760. Will Sappelt ever have the power needed to justify putting him in a corner outfield position everyday? Heck no. But I see him as an 8-12 HR guy with an OPS around .780-.790 in his prime, which is pretty impressive--especially someone with a 5'8" frame.

[RedsFanInBama]

What Ryan Hanigan is currently doing for the Reds was always considered to be his ceiling.
I don't believe that for a second. Maybe Ryan's mom and dad thought he could do it, but I have a really hard time believing that people ALWAYS believed he could be this type of contributor at the major league level.

[HokieRed]

Ceilings can of course change. Guys can make changes in their swings that can change their skillsets. They can improve their diet/nutrition/work ethic to improve their body type, position and even speed.

Here is the main thing with Sappelt, as he has always been a fast guy with excellent range in CF who makes a lot of contact.... is the power improvement this year for real, or a by product of the stadiums he has been playing in? At home, his power is in line with where it has been for his career. On the road, its real good (.216 IsoP). If the power increase is legit, then he is showing an improved tool, one that no one really thought was as good as it is. That really is the only thing that has changed in his game. He isn't striking out less and while his walks are up a little bit, its not even a full percent better than it was in Dayton last season.

IMHO, this nails it on Sappelt. If the power is legit and carries through and his K rate stays at about 1 in every 8 PA and only about 1.5 x his Walks, then Drew Stubbs--whom I really like--is going to be really tested to keep the CF spot in Cinti.

[RedsManRick]

For reference, here are the unweighted averages of qualified OFs:


AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA ISO
LF .284 .352 .455 .806 .354 .171
CF .276 .340 .432 .772 .342 .157
RF .279 .354 .457 .812 .355 .178

Suffice it to say that the difference is pretty small. Everybody is expected to hit these days. If you're south of .750, you better be an excellent fielder if you want job security. Even CFs need to take a few walks and have a bit of pop.

[camisadelgolf]

For reference, here are the unweighted averages of qualified OFs:


AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA ISO
LF .284 .352 .455 .806 .354 .171
CF .276 .340 .432 .772 .342 .157
RF .279 .354 .457 .812 .355 .178

Suffice it to say that the difference is pretty small. Everybody is expected to hit these days. If you're south of .750, you better be an excellent fielder if you want job security. Even CFs need to take a few walks and have a bit of pop.
Over which period of time does that cover? 2010?

[HokieRed]

For reference, here are the unweighted averages of qualified OFs:


AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA ISO
LF .284 .352 .455 .806 .354 .171
CF .276 .340 .432 .772 .342 .157
RF .279 .354 .457 .812 .355 .178

Suffice it to say that the difference is pretty small. Everybody is expected to hit these days. If you're south of .750, you better be an excellent fielder if you want job security. Even CFs need to take a few walks and have a bit of pop.

Interesting stats. Looks like none of our current trio even meets the averages.

[RedsManRick]

Over which period of time does that cover? 2010?

Yes, 2010. Here's 2009:

[quote]
AVG OBP SLG OPS
LF .281 .347 .445 .792
CF .275 .338 .437 .775
RF .279 .357 .460 .817[/code]

Sure, it varies from season to season, particularly if a big bat switches to a corner, but it's quite robust in general.

[HokieRed]

Variance really doesn't seem significant.

[camisadelgolf]

For reference, here are the unweighted averages of qualified OFs:


AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA ISO
LF .284 .352 .455 .806 .354 .171
CF .276 .340 .432 .772 .342 .157
RF .279 .354 .457 .812 .355 .178

Suffice it to say that the difference is pretty small. Everybody is expected to hit these days. If you're south of .750, you better be an excellent fielder if you want job security. Even CFs need to take a few walks and have a bit of pop.
That's not a fair argument. For whatever reason, you're using only qualified outfielders. My argument is that Sappelt, even with only 5 HRs per 650 PAs, would be an above-average starter in the major leagues when you factor in his defense provided the rest of his numbers stay the same. Even if you're speaking solely of offense, a .768 OPS is better than more than half the starting center fielders in MLB.

Did you know:
Of the ten center fielders with an OPS of .750 or better, only three of them play above-average defense.

Check out how huge the discrepancy is between center fielders and corner outfielders:

LEFT FIELD CENTER FIELD RIGHT FIELD
TM PLAYER BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TM PLAYER BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TM PLAYER BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
TEX Josh Hamilton .362 .409 .636 1044 173 STL Colby Rasmus .274 .355 .516 .871 132 TOR Jose Bautista .260 .372 .596 .968 161
LAD Manny Ramirez .317 .409 .516 .925 152 NYM Angel Pagan .313 .375 .485 .860 131 TEX Nelson Cruz .324 .380 .590 .970 154
MIN Delmon Young .335 .367 .551 .919 145 LAA Torii Hunter .285 .368 .484 .852 128 NYY Nick Swish .300 .373 .541 .914 147
STL Matt Holliday .300 .376 .528 .904 141 TOR Vernon Wells .275 .326 .519 .846 128 MIL Corey Hart .288 .346 .565 .910 143
WAS Josh Willingham .266 .390 .462 .852 129 CHW Alexis Rios .300 .349 .488 .837 120 PHI Jayson Werth .297 .390 .529 .919 142
TB Carl Crawford .309 .362 .495 .856 128 CHC Marlon Byrd .315 .376 .471 .848 119 CLE Shin-Soo Choo .293 .391 .479 .870 141
COL Seth Smith .283 .342 .534 .876 123 PIT Andrew McCutchen .291 .363 .435 .798 116 LAD Andre Ethier .294 .356 .508 .864 134
DET Brennan Boesch .291 .354 .490 .844 123 LA Matt Kemp .259 .316 .452 .768 108 ATL Jason Heyward .270 .384 .456 .840 127
ATL Eric Hinske .271 .342 .486 .827 121 DET Austin Jackson .306 .354 .418 .772 106 DET Magglio Ordonez .303 .378 .474 .852 126
CHC Alfonso Soriano .265 .329 .531 .860 119 ARI Chris Young .269 .336 .462 .798 104 KC David DeJesus .318 .384 .443 .827 125
SF Pat Burrell .273 .362 .471 .833 118 NYY Curtis Granderson .246 .312 .427 .739 100 BAL Nick Markakis .293 .377 .439 .816 120
NYY Brett Gardner .295 .395 .397 .791 118 BAL Adam Jones .272 .306 .434 .740 98 STL Ryan Ludwick .281 .343 .484 .827 120
TOR Fred Lewis .280 .342 .456 .798 117 KC Mitch Maier .263 .338 .388 .726 98 CHW Carlos Quentin .237 .337 .493 .830 118
CLE Austin Kearns .272 .354 .419 .772 114 PHI Shane Victorino .250 .311 .438 .749 97 ARI Justin Upton .282 .368 .478 .846 117
MIL Ryan Braun .274 .328 .459. 787 112 FLO Cody Ross .274 .327 .415 .742 96 BOS J.D. Drew .267 .356 .460 .815 114
PHI Raul Ibanez .266 .352 .431 .782 107 MIN Denard Span .276 .348 .363 .711 93 MIN Michael Cuddyer .276 .343 .434 .777 109
SEA Michael Saunders .243 .316 .441 .757 106 BOS Mike Cameron .259 .328 .401 .729 92 FLA Mike Stanton .235 .309 .481 .791 107
KC Scott Podsednik .310 .353 .400 .753 105 OAK Rajai Davis .278 .320 .387 .707 92 LAA Bobby Abreu .254 .350 .417 .767 106
CIN Jonny Gomes .268 .320 .449 .769 103 COL Dexter Fowler .239 .351 .387 .738 91 SEA Ichiro Suzuki .307 .359 .384 .743 105
NYM Jason Bay .259 .347 .402 .749 102 TB B.J. Upton .226 .314 .390 .704 89 HOU Hunter Pence .275 .321 .447 .758 105
SD Scott Hairston .235 .316 .390 .706 100 CLE Trevor Crowe .259 .317 .359 .677 88 TB Ben Zobrist .272 .371 .384 .755 104
BAL Corey Patterson .273 .325 .411 .737 98 SEA Franklin Gutierrez .244 .317 .366 .683 88 SD Will Venable .229 .320 .400 .720 104
LAA Juan Rivera .257 .309 .427 .736 96 SF Aaron Rowand .252 .302 .405 .707 85 COL Brad Hawpe .258 .342 .449 .791 103
PIT Lastings Milledge .272 .334 .382 .716 95 CIN Drew Stubbs .229 .297 .391 .688 82 WAS Roger Bernadina .274 .329 .425 .754 102
FLA Chris Coghlan .268 .335 .383 .718 91 SD Tony Gwynn .215 .319 .305 .623 79 OAK Ryan Sweeney .294 .342 .383 .725 98
HOU Carlos Lee .238 .282 .394 .676 80 WAS Nyjer Morgan .264 .323 .326 .649 76 CIN Jay Bruce .259 .326 .417 .743 97
OAK Eric Patterson .204 .255 .408 .662 77 HOU Michael Bourn .249 .325 .324 .648 76 CHC Kosuke Fukudome .249 .355 .403 .759 97
ARI Gerardo Parra .251 .297 .367 .664 71 TEX Julio Borbon .271 .303 .353 .656 74 SF Nate Schierholtz .245 .313 .367 .680 79
CHW Juan Pierre .264 .336 .296 .633 71 MIL Carlos Gomez .228 .280 .350 .630 70 NYM Jeff Francoeur .236 .288 .370 .658 77
BOS Jeremy Hermida .203 .257 .348 .605 58 ATL Nate McClouth .168 .279 .265 .544 49 PIT Ryan Church .182 .240 .312 .552 49


Overall averages:
LEFT FIELD
AL .274 .339 .431 .770
NL .266 .334 .434 .767

CENTER FIELD
AL .265 .326 .409 .735
NL .260 .329 .407 .736

RIGHT FIELD
AL .279 .356 .445 .801
NL .265 .335 .450 .785

[Mario-Rijo]

What was Ryan Hanigan's ceiling when he went undrafted? Must have been about High-A.

No doubt a "ceiling" is a very real thing, but us pretending to know it for a given player is not realistic. There are too many factors that go into baseball that can't be measured on a tools' sheet.

I would disagree with that I think a majority of the time projections about ceilings can be pretty dead on. Yes things can change (both ways, see C. Heisey) but I feel pretty confident in my assessments on certain guys and Sappelt is one of them. I will miss on some guys but for every guy I miss I find my initial gut thoughts are spot on quite a bit more. Sappelt will make the bigs, no doubt about it in my mind but to me he is alot like Wily Taveras only not as big, fast (maybe close here) or polished. And that is saying something because Wily could use some polish himself.

I should add that doesn't mean Sappelt can't fix those issues and improve his stock but I think it's safe to say he isn't gonna be Ryan Howard and to be frank he isn't gonna be changing his ultimate ceiling much regardless, just his current one.

[Mario-Rijo]

I share your reservations about judgments from on high about players' "ceilings."

Really, what is the take on Yonder from your perch?

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Good stuff, camisa.

Wow, our current OF is pretty bad, offensively.

[RedsFanInBama]

That's just my point, Mario-Rijo.

You're admitting that his ceiling can change if he improves. So the initial projection was never a true ceiling, then.

There's also a lot of room between Wily Tavares and Ryan Howard.

[camisadelgolf]

Good stuff, camisa.

Wow, our current OF is pretty bad, offensively.
You're not kidding. Gomes was a positive contributor early in the season, but now that he has come back to his career norms, his horrible defense is making him a player with almost negative value.

And bringing it back to the 'ceiling' talk, even though the Reds' outfield's offensive numbers have been bad, we can at least take comfort in knowing that they're capable of much more. Stubbs and Bruce have been slumping big-time lately, but when they start to regress to their respective means, watch out--they could be putting up some huge numbers soon.

[HokieRed]

Really, what is the take on Yonder from your perch?

Maybe I should say I tend to ignore judgments about ceilings when they're meant to limit players, to say they can only be this good and no better. I've watched too many players exceed expectations. I've no objection whatever to judgments about players' ceilings when they are high.

[Redeye fly]

My moment of hesitation in talking about guys like Stubbs and Bruce possibly putting up big numbers "soon" based on their perceived ceilings and where their numbers should be expected to fall is you're still looking at awfully young players, whether we're talking literal age, big league experience, or both. So to me, the soon is pretty relative. It could mean within a couple of weeks, it could mean May of 2011. Or one or both could fall well short of their respective ceilings and the entire prediction proves to be completely off base. I'm not saying give up on either one of them. I'm simply saying I'm a Reds fan, and by nature even in a good year I'm skeptical.;)

It's funny,but I remember a guy named Shawn Abner. I always found some humor in that just because at the time I realized there was a Padres or Mets (whichever, I think he spent time in both organizations) prospect named Shawn Abner I was going to school with a kid named Shawn Abner. I don't know a lot about the player's skill set or numbers in the minors, as I never bothered to look since he had such a dismal career. I want to say he was the number 1 overall pick when he was drafted though, so obviously someone thought his ceiling was plenty high. Then you look at guys like Mike Piazza, who probably wouldn't have even been drafted if Tommy Lasorda wasn't the manager of the Dodgers... or even Hanigan as has been mentioned and their ceilings weren't seen as being too high by anyone. Even if someone thought perhaps one day Hanigan, or even Piazza may possibly be a decent backup catcher in the majors, your typical backup catcher on most teams is a Henry Blanco or even Paul Bako or Corky Miller type... a guy who offers little offensively except for perhaps an occasional home run(if even that) but is a good catch and throw guy and handler of pitchers. Obviously neither description fits the career of Piazza, who was a Hall of Fame caliber hitter and very mediocre defender, or Hanigan, who's a plus defender and handler of pitchers, but a solid batting average/OBP hitter with little power. Now I'm not saying that a backup catcher should always be or even ideally be just a good defender but a weak bat. That's just usually the way most teams seem to do it, or have done it in the past.

[Mario-Rijo]

That's just my point, Mario-Rijo.

You're admitting that his ceiling can change if he improves. So the initial projection was never a true ceiling, then.

There's also a lot of room between Wily Tavares and Ryan Howard.

There is a difference in a true ceiling and a players current one. Since I watched him at Dayton I thought "best case scenario a better version of Wily Taveras" or if you prefer "what Wily Taveras should be if he would quit swinging at pitchers pitches". Not sure if he is gonna be quite the base stealer that Wily can be but you get my point, I hope. Now for me that hasn't changed and can't change a whole lot, I suppose if he is Rafeal Furcal in the power department that would merit a "true" change in ceiling. But anything else would be incremental and thus not really a change in ceiling because when I say ceiling it's a neighborhood and not an exact address. He'd be in Taveras neighborhood and possibly better if he does everything right from Dayton all the way up the ladder.

Now sometimes I will use "current ceiling" and really I shouldn't because that never really changes (assuming you get an accurate scouting report on ones true talent level) but I use it due to lack of a better term. When I say that though it means "how good he can be if he doesn't change his current skillset" which some players never do. He struck me as the type who would have trouble changing his skillset, everything he does is undisciplined IMO (which is why I often liken him to Ryan Freel). Which makes his "current skillset" less than a better version of Wily Taveras and maybe even less than Wily Taveras himself. Then again I haven't seen him play since Dayton so maybe he has made some adjustments I don't know about.

I know that people don't like it when I put a label on a guy but why is it ok to only tell the good on a player? Why brush the negative under the carpet so we can all be disappointed every time a prospect comes up. Heck most don't listen to a thing I have to say about a player anyway. Sorry to those who don't like it but there are a few who appreciate it. I wish someone would have been giving a descenting view on Homer Bailey on his way up and I wouldn't have been so damn disappointed.

How many players have been a disappointment and thus thrown under the bus because the fans had been spoon fed bologna on them. Would it have made a difference if people knew ahead of time that Paul O'Neill wasn't gonna be a slugger but still a very good player? Popular opinion can drive a good player out of town and keep bad ones around and IMO RZ has a responsibility to see both sides of the coin.

[Mario-Rijo]

Maybe I should say I tend to ignore judgments about ceilings when they're meant to limit players, to say they can only be this good and no better. I've watched too many players exceed expectations. I've no objection whatever to judgments about players' ceilings when they are high.

They aren't meant to limit players they are meant to limit expectations of players.

[RedsFanInBama]

By the way, I'm not referring to you specifically, just the entire concept. It's a very, very inexact science. It doesn't factor in work ethic, desire or aptitude, among other things (I understand why, those are impossible to measure). But, those are some very big factors.

[Mario-Rijo]

By the way, I'm not referring to you specifically, just the entire concept. It's a very, very inexact science. It doesn't factor in work ethic, desire or aptitude, among other things (I understand why, those are impossible to measure). But, those are some very big factors.

No I get that part of it but talent/genetics is the ultimate decider when it comes to moving the ceiling needle out of a "neighborhood" if you will. And for the most part judging ones talent is usually pretty spot on these days. For example Hanigan can only run so fast, Janish can only have so much power they aren't moving the needle out of their respective talent neighborhoods by improving wrist strength or leg strength. Genetics are what they are.

[RedsFanInBama]

I agree that judging a player's physical tools is pretty exact. But that other stuff is not at all insignificant IMO, which makes determining an accurate ultimate ceiling based solely on physical tools a tough thing to do. Also, coaching and instruction has to be considered. There are bad coaches, average coaches, good coaches, great coaches.

Maybe we're talking about two different things here.

[Mario-Rijo]

I agree that judging a player's physical tools is pretty exact. But that other stuff is not at all insignificant IMO, which makes determining an accurate ultimate ceiling based solely on physical tools a tough thing to do. Also, coaching and instruction has to be considered. There are bad coaches, average coaches, good coaches, great coaches.

Maybe we're talking about two different things here.

Well no not really I mean a players skillset (which is what you are referring to) is a part of the equation in determining what a players likely ceiling is. However changing/improving a skillset doesn't usually move that "needle" all that much. Though I know it does happen, Chris Heisey is an example of it. He changed something in his swing mechanics which improved his pop. He wasn't getting his left foot down in a timely manner during the delivery of the pitch, he changed it (got it down sooner) and it allowed him more time to see the pitch and therefore square it up better resulting in better contact and of course more XBH's/Pop.

So in essence you are correct things can be done to move that needle, at least where we are concerned. We don't have all the information to really get it right but in this case and a handful of others I have seen enough to feel pretty good about what I'm saying.

In the end I could be wrong but if that's the worst that happens I can live with it. Much easier than having to defend a guy from unrealistic expectations.

[RedsManRick]

That's not a fair argument. For whatever reason, you're using only qualified outfielders. My argument is that Sappelt, even with only 5 HRs per 650 PAs, would be an above-average starter in the major leagues when you factor in his defense provided the rest of his numbers stay the same. Even if you're speaking solely of offense, a .768 OPS is better than more than half the starting center fielders in MLB.


I'm using only qualified players because I wanted to show what starters looked like. I'm not interested in what 4th OFs and defensive subs bring to the table. The split definitely increases when you included everybody because you're including guys who can't hit but get playing time in CF on occasion b/c of their gloves. If a guy's glove is good enough to make him a starter full-time, he'll still show up in the list. That so few crappy hitters show up in the CF list speaks to either the difficulty of making up that value with your glove or many teams' unwillingness to play the glove guy.

To your point, Sappelt could very well be an average or better overall CF, but the part of the conversation I was replying to was about hitting. As a hitter, the standard for starting CF isn't much lower than it is for corner OF. I'd look at a WAR framework for the full picture.

[camisadelgolf]

I'm using only qualified players because I wanted to show what starters looked like. I'm not interested in what 4th OFs and defensive subs bring to the table. The split definitely increases when you included everybody because you're including guys who can't hit but get playing time in CF on occasion b/c of their gloves. If a guy's glove is good enough to make him a starter full-time, he'll still show up in the list. That so few crappy hitters show up in the CF list speaks to either the difficulty of making up that value with your glove or many teams' unwillingness to play the glove guy.

To your point, Sappelt could very well be an average or better overall CF, but the part of the conversation I was replying to was about hitting. As a hitter, the standard for starting CF isn't much lower than it is for corner OF. I'd look at a WAR framework for the full picture.
Using qualified starters doesn't show us enough about starters. It shows us only about the few players who were good and healthy enough to be a starter for an extended period of time. The fact is that we know exactly how many starting center fielders there are. Each team has exactly one.

And how is the standard for a center fielder not much lower? I don't know where you got your numbers, but using ESPN's stats, I came up with these numbers at each position in 2010:
LEFT FIELD
AL .274 .339 .431 .770
NL .266 .334 .434 .767

CENTER FIELD
AL .265 .326 .409 .735
NL .260 .329 .407 .736

RIGHT FIELD
AL .279 .356 .445 .801
NL .265 .335 .450 .785

Granted, those are including defensive subs, fourth outfielders, etc., but regardless, you can see that there's a pretty big difference between center fielders and corner outfielders. If you limit the split to only starters at each position, the gap widens even more. However, if you use only those who 'qualify', you're omitting many of the starters. I suppose it's just semantics.

[RedsManRick]

Using qualified starters doesn't show us enough about starters. It shows us only about the few players who were good and healthy enough to be a starter for an extended period of time. The fact is that we know exactly how many starting center fielders there are. Each team has exactly one.

I'm sorry, but this just isn't true. For any given game, each team has just one. But some teams have the same guy starting the vast majority of their games and some don't.

If you want to go through each team and select their "starter", be my guest. But I wanted to paint the picture of what a starter-worthy player looks like so we'd have some basis for the conversation of whether a certain offensive line qualified a player to be a starter. And you don't get to that picture by including fill-ins and back-ups.

I got my data from Fangraphs. What's funny is that the differences are pretty much the same whether you include the starters or not. LF is about .35 points higher than CF. RF is about 50 points higher. Some years it's 40, some 60. You can split starters out from backups. Whatever. The point is that corner OF don't hit a ton better than CF.

[camisadelgolf]

I'm sorry, but this just isn't true. For any given game, each team has just one. But some teams have the same guy starting the vast majority of their games and some don't.

If you want to go through each team and select their "starter", be my guest. But I wanted to paint the picture of what a starter-worthy player looks like so we'd have some basis for the conversation of whether a certain offensive line qualified a player to be a starter. And you don't get to that picture by including fill-ins and back-ups.

I got my data from Fangraphs. What's funny is that the differences are pretty much the same whether you include the starters or not. LF is about .35 points higher than CF. RF is about 50 points higher. Some years it's 40, some 60. You can split starters out from backups. Whatever. The point is that corner OF don't hit a ton better than CF.
For each game, there are two center fielders. Sure, some of them are in platoons, have occasional off days, get optioned, get injured, etc., but that's not the point.

The point is that if Sappelt were to produce in the way I stated above, he would be an above-average center fielder worthy of being the starter for more than half the teams in MLB. If you reduce the field to only 18 center fielders, he would be in the middle of the pack, but why would you close your eyes to the other 12 teams that need to field a center fielder every day?

I'm not saying he would be an above-average starter amongst teams that have a player with enough plate appearances to qualify. I'm simply saying he would be an above-average starter amongst all the teams in MLB. Period.

But if you still don't agree with that, I understand because it seems like a semantic debate to me. I'll reword it. Amongst all the Major League teas using a center fielder, Dave Sappelt would OPS better than half of the starting center fielders.

Just so you know, by your definition of 'starter', there are only enough outfielders to field 15 baseball teams.

[RedsManRick]

Camisa, I get your point and I concede. An OPS of .750 would put Sappelt right around #15 on the list of CF. Add in plus defense and you have an above average CF. Though I'd rather not anchor the conversation around offense and then layer defense on top -- I'd rather talk about both from the very start.

If we use wOBA instead of OPS, we can easily convert it to runs and then add in a best guess on defense.

Simply take a player’s wOBA difference from the league average, divide by 1.15, and multiply that by how many plate appearances he got, and you have a run value above or below average for that player.

A .750 OPS would be in the ballpark of a .340 wOBA, which would be worth about 10 runs above league average. Give him a +5 on the defensive side and a full season of that would make him something like a 2.5-3.0 win player. I think we can all agree we'd be happy with that.

[Orenda]

Is this guy aware that they keep track of the number of times a player is caught stealing? He sure has run into a lot of outs this year, hopefully he can improve his sb%.

[redsof72]

I had a real good conversation with a scout who has seen Sappelt play a lot this season. Here is how it went:

"He was a .269 hitter in Dayton last year. Now he's hitting .340 in Double-A. What happened?"

"He figured out that he was not a home run hitter and starting hitting the ball where it is pitched."

"Is he a Norris Hopper type profile?"

"I actually thought Norris was a pretty good player. I am not sure if he will be as good as Norris or not. It's a little early to say. But, yes, that type of player."

"When he was in Dayton, they ran on his arm. Every runner went first to third on anything to the right of straightaway center. Can you have that in the big leagues?"

"He will have to play shallow and maybe move to left field, although he has great range in center."

"Can he play in the big leagues?"

"I think so, but probably not as an everyday player."

That's it. I personally was not impressed with Sappelt last season but you can't argue with what he has done in 2010. Last season, I thought he was more of the problem than the solution. The team was 31-47 when he moved up, and they got better after he left. Too many base running blunders. The steals were mostly in meaningless times when they were not concerned with holding him on. Too many runners taking extra bases on his arm. His confidence level is over-the-top, and I did not care for that, but others think that is one of his best attributes. The word is that he toned it down this season, at least outwardly. He is a great example of why you can't make a long-term judgement on a player based on first impressions.

Congrats to Dave for a great, great 2010 season.

[HokieRed]

The comparisons of Sappelt to Norris Hopper are quite frankly ridiculous. Here are Norris's numbers:
As a 23 year old, Hopper was at High A ball, posting a .636.
He then spent 3 seasons at AA, as a 24, 25, and 26 year old, posting .688, ,653, .722.

[kfm]

I started this thread last year and it is very interesting to read through it. It is amazing how much can change in such a short period of time. Sappelt has seemingly gone from a guy who could be just a fringe major league player to a guy fans are clamoring for to come up and hit leadoff. Two things seem to be consistent from comments from last year. One, he is still hitting the cover off the ball and he is a lousy baserunner.

[powersackers]

Does anyone know why he was pulled after 1 AB last night?

[Mario-Rijo]

I started this thread last year and it is very interesting to read through it. It is amazing how much can change in such a short period of time. Sappelt has seemingly gone from a guy who could be just a fringe major league player to a guy fans are clamoring for to come up and hit leadoff. Two things seem to be consistent from comments from last year. One, he is still hitting the cover off the ball and he is a lousy baserunner.

Spot on. Seems to me I underestimated his willingness (and perhaps to some extent his ability) to improve. Usually when a guy is as undisciplined as he was they don't change much if at all. I went with the odds and I was wrong, good for Dave.

In fact I must say he has turned me into a fan. Anyone who works as hard and as smart as he did to get where he is now deserves my admiration. What he done was toned down his aggression on pitches outside the zone to a degree that I previously would have thought was virtually impossible for 99% of players. And he didn't stop there, he also improved his swing/swing mechanics. If he takes the same approach with his baserunning/basestealing issues he should be ready to go real soon.

[Orenda]

it would wouldn't be fair to say Sappelt was ever a Juan Francisco/Chris Valaika type of free swinger but his bb rate has steadily improved to where if his results so far this year indicate anything, he is turning himself into a very tough out. His sb attempts are down this year also

Right now he's at 406/.541/.947 after being the best hitter in spring training. Don't look in your rear view mirror Jonny Gomes or else it will be Dave Sappelt bobble head night.

[kfm]

I am really excited to see Sappelt get the call. Does anyone remember a guy who was not considered an elite prospect moving through the system to the majors this quickly?

[batsfan]

I am really excited to see Sappelt get the call. Does anyone remember a guy who was not considered an elite prospect moving through the system to the majors this quickly?

Chris Heisey?

[kfm]

Chris Heisey?

Forgot about Heisey. That is a good one.