Reds Hidden Gem: Baserunning

[Cyclone792]

Or in other words, perhaps we can also call this one part of the Scott Rolen Effect.

Over in the Minor League forum, I've mentioned that Scott Rolen always was one of my favorite non-Reds (before he became a Red) because the guy did just about everything well. We know he's a solid hitter, and we know about his glove, but one of his much lesser-known qualities were his baserunning abilities.

Several years ago I saw a statistic that attempted to quantify the ability of players to help/hinder their teams with their baserunning abilities. I wish I remembered the name of the stat - I believe it was a Bill James stat in one of his handbooks - but my mind is drawing blanks. Nevertheless, I'm not necessarily talking stolen bases here, but moreso an ability to go from first to third on a single, score from second on a single and score from first on a double. This ability for a non-hitting baserunner to swipe an extra base on a ball in play doesn't exactly show up in many statistics, but it's an important offensive asset that can help a team throw up a few extra runs over time, extra runs that may also help put up an extra win or three over time.

Anyhow, through this stat, it was determined that Scott Rolen was one of the best baserunners in baseball with his ability to swipe an extra base as a non-hitting baserunner. In any given year, the league average baserunner can swipe an extra base as a non-hitting baserunner 39 percent of the time. Rolen? He currently sits at 51 percent for his career (44 percent in small sample size this year for the Reds). This was just another example of a very good all-around ballplayer doing something extra to help his team.

Fast forward to 2010, and we're seeing a bit of the Scott Rolen Effect at work for the Reds, because they're running the bases precisely like Scott Rolen. If your eyes seem to be telling you that "Damn, this Reds team goes first to third a lot on singles," your eyes aren't lying to you. Check this out (numbers are through Saturday games):

2010 Reds 1st to 3rd on single: 27 outta 66 (40.9 percent)
2010 MLB 1st to 3rd on single: 18 outta 68 (26.5 percent)

2010 Reds 1st to home on double: 9 outta 16 (56.3 percent)
2010 MLB 1st to home on double: 8 outta 21 (39.5 percent)

2010 Reds 2nd to home on single: 26 outta 40 (65.0 percent)
2010 MLB 2nd to home on single: 24.5 outta 42 (58.3 percent)

2010 Reds Extra Base %: 51 percent
2010 MLB Extra Base %: 39 percent

Now swiping that extra base is only worthwhile if you're not losing a pile of baserunners trying to do so. Thus far in 2010, the average MLB team has lost 12 baserunners trying to swipe an extra base. Meanwhile, the Reds have only lost 10 baserunners with their efforts.

It's only mid May, but the Reds have already swiped approximately a dozen extra bases through simple baserunning than the average MLB team, and they've had two fewer baserunners thrown out trying to swipe that extra base.

In fact, Jay Bruce has an extra base percentage of 78 percent, and Joey Votto sits at 63 percent. They're young players with above average speed, and they're doing on the bases what Rolen was doing a decade ago.

Who gets the credit here? Probably a bunch of folks, I'm guessing. The makeup of the offensive roster has young players with above average speed, and it's anchored by a guy such as Rolen who has done this his entire career. The Reds coaching staff likely also deserves credit for being able to implement this into the team's offensive gameplan. Mark Berry probably deserves a bunch of credit particularly, since he's the guy deciding on the spot while the ball's in play where he's going to send his runners.

As for Scott Rolen, well, he may very well deserve some credit too. He's built a career out of this exact same style of baserunning, and perhaps it is - or isn't - pure coincidence that when he shows up in town that the rest of the team starts to adopt his style of baserunning.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Dusty has said a few times that going 1st to 3rd was one of the biggest focal points during spring training. So while Rolen's been good at such in the past...I think this one should be laid at Mr. Baker's feet. Several players have said this too.

[wheels]

Most atheletic Reds club in eons and it looks like they're pretty smart on the basepaths.

Excellent observation.

[RedsManRick]

Cyclone, what do you make of BP's baserunning data? This was developed by Dan Fox, who is now employed by the Pirates, and is the most comprehensive baserunning valuation system I know of. As you've pointed out, the Reds are the best in baseball at taking the extra base on hits. However, they are more than giving those runs back in stolen base attempts and other advancement opportunities.

For the uninitiated (EQ = equivalent, meaning they took raw event data and turned it in to the runs those events are worth, on average):
EQGAR: Ground (out) Advancement Runs
EQSBR: Stolen Base Runs
EQAAR: Air (out) Advancement Runs
EQHAR: Hit Advancement Runs
EQOAR: Other Advancement Runs (wild pitches, passed balls, etc.)
EQBRR: BaseRunning Runs

So the Yankees have been 6.2 runs better than expected given their opportunities while Washington has been 8.5 run worse. The Reds have basically broken even.



# TEAM EQGAR EQSBR EQAAR EQHAR EQOAR EQBRR
1 NYN 1.1 1.5 -0.2 2.9 1.0 6.2
2 TEX 0.8 -1.9 1.1 2.9 2.9 5.8
3 FLO 0.2 -1.1 1.2 3.3 -0.1 3.5
4 TBA -0.6 -1.1 1.0 1.5 2.3 3.1
5 SFN 1.2 -2.0 -0.3 0.6 3.4 2.8
6 NYA -0.7 0.8 0.3 0.2 1.5 2.0
7 SDN 0.9 -0.5 -0.6 3.2 -2.3 0.7
8 COL 1.9 -3.5 0.7 2.3 -0.9 0.6
9 LAN 0.9 -1.8 1.3 0.7 -0.5 0.5
10 CHA -0.7 0.0 -2.6 1.7 1.6 0.1
11 MIL -0.6 0.4 -0.6 -0.4 1.1 -0.1
12 OAK -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 1.6 -1.1 -0.2

13 CIN 0.1 -2.3 0.0 3.3 -1.6 -0.5

14 HOU 1.1 -2.6 1.5 0.0 -1.0 -1.1
15 MIN -0.5 0.9 -0.4 -0.1 -1.0 -1.1
16 CLE 0.0 -2.8 -0.7 0.3 1.8 -1.4
17 CHN -2.2 -0.6 -0.4 0.8 0.4 -2.0
18 PIT 0.6 0.2 -1.7 -0.7 -0.8 -2.5
19 PHI -0.9 0.2 -0.6 -1.5 0.3 -2.5
20 BAL -0.8 -1.4 0.2 0.3 -0.9 -2.6
21 DET 0.4 -1.4 -0.1 -1.6 -0.3 -2.8
22 KCA -0.4 -0.1 0.7 -2.1 -1.0 -2.8
23 BOS 0.2 -1.1 -0.3 -1.6 -0.5 -3.2
24 TOR -0.9 -0.6 0.6 0.1 -2.7 -3.5
25 ATL -0.4 -2.8 0.5 -1.7 0.0 -4.3
26 ARI -0.7 -0.6 0.7 -3.5 -0.5 -4.5
27 ANA -0.8 -1.9 -0.5 -1.8 -0.1 -5.1
28 SLN 0.5 -4.4 0.8 -3.0 -1.1 -7.1
29 SEA -0.5 -3.0 0.0 -4.9 1.3 -7.1
30 WAS 0.9 -4.0 -1.5 -2.8 -1.1 -8.5

[OnBaseMachine]

Excellent post, Cyclone. I'm very impressed with this club's ability to go from first to third on a basehit. Now if they can just stop getting picked off and caught stealing. ;)

[redsmetz]

I've come to another conclusion on something Rolen does. It's still just a guess, but during the pitcher's warm ups, he's always right by the mound. Doesn't seem like he's saying anything and I always thought maybe it's a confidence booster or such, but I wonder if he isn't getting a sense of what the pitcher's throwing to have a better idea how to position himself in the field.

[Cyclone792]

Cyclone, what do you make of BP's baserunning data? This was developed by Dan Fox, who is now employed by the Pirates, and is the most comprehensive baserunning valuation system I know of. As you've pointed out, the Reds are the best in baseball at taking the extra base on hits. However, they are more than giving those runs back in stolen base attempts and other advancement opportunities.

For the uninitiated (EQ = equivalent, meaning they took raw event data and turned it in to the runs those events are worth, on average):
EQGAR: Ground (out) Advancement Runs
EQSBR: Stolen Base Runs
EQAAR: Air (out) Advancement Runs
EQHAR: Hit Advancement Runs
EQOAR: Other Advancement Runs (wild pitches, passed balls, etc.)
EQBRR: BaseRunning Runs

So the Yankees have been 6.2 runs better than expected given their opportunities while Washington has been 8.5 run worse. The Reds have basically broken even.



# TEAM EQGAR EQSBR EQAAR EQHAR EQOAR EQBRR
1 NYN 1.1 1.5 -0.2 2.9 1.0 6.2
2 TEX 0.8 -1.9 1.1 2.9 2.9 5.8
3 FLO 0.2 -1.1 1.2 3.3 -0.1 3.5
4 TBA -0.6 -1.1 1.0 1.5 2.3 3.1
5 SFN 1.2 -2.0 -0.3 0.6 3.4 2.8
6 NYA -0.7 0.8 0.3 0.2 1.5 2.0
7 SDN 0.9 -0.5 -0.6 3.2 -2.3 0.7
8 COL 1.9 -3.5 0.7 2.3 -0.9 0.6
9 LAN 0.9 -1.8 1.3 0.7 -0.5 0.5
10 CHA -0.7 0.0 -2.6 1.7 1.6 0.1
11 MIL -0.6 0.4 -0.6 -0.4 1.1 -0.1
12 OAK -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 1.6 -1.1 -0.2
13 CIN 0.1 -2.3 0.0 3.3 -1.6 -0.5
14 HOU 1.1 -2.6 1.5 0.0 -1.0 -1.1
15 MIN -0.5 0.9 -0.4 -0.1 -1.0 -1.1
16 CLE 0.0 -2.8 -0.7 0.3 1.8 -1.4
17 CHN -2.2 -0.6 -0.4 0.8 0.4 -2.0
18 PIT 0.6 0.2 -1.7 -0.7 -0.8 -2.5
19 PHI -0.9 0.2 -0.6 -1.5 0.3 -2.5
20 BAL -0.8 -1.4 0.2 0.3 -0.9 -2.6
21 DET 0.4 -1.4 -0.1 -1.6 -0.3 -2.8
22 KCA -0.4 -0.1 0.7 -2.1 -1.0 -2.8
23 BOS 0.2 -1.1 -0.3 -1.6 -0.5 -3.2
24 TOR -0.9 -0.6 0.6 0.1 -2.7 -3.5
25 ATL -0.4 -2.8 0.5 -1.7 0.0 -4.3
26 ARI -0.7 -0.6 0.7 -3.5 -0.5 -4.5
27 ANA -0.8 -1.9 -0.5 -1.8 -0.1 -5.1
28 SLN 0.5 -4.4 0.8 -3.0 -1.1 -7.1
29 SEA -0.5 -3.0 0.0 -4.9 1.3 -7.1
30 WAS 0.9 -4.0 -1.5 -2.8 -1.1 -8.5

I'd say that's probably pretty accurate overall. The baserunning I've noticed and posted about would fit in the Hit Advancement Runs category, and obviously BP has the Reds excelling in that area.

I think you could probably break those five baserunning areas up into two categories, one being a category that you have a pretty good deal of control over as a baserunner (stolen bases and hit advancement), and the other being a category that you have less control over as a baserunner (ground out advancement, air out advancement and other advancement).

Intuition tells me that a good basestealing team and a good baserunning team would likely excel at stolen base runs and hit advancement runs. Stolen bases are pretty self-explanatory, but a good baserunning team can have its runners getting good leads, breaks and running proper angles in order to give itself many opportunities to advance on hits, and I think that would show in the hit advancement category.

The other categories seem to have a more luck involved, or other factors in play that a baserunner has less control over. Wild pitches and passed balls happen too infrequently to weed out the luck over even a season of sample size, I'm guessing. Ground out and air out advancing is a category where a baserunner is largely at the mercy of a hitter, moreso than hit advancement, IMO. Or maybe a better way to phrase it is those three areas seem to be areas where the pieces will fall as they are, and a good baserunning team has less ability to influence that in a positive direction (or vice versa).

[REDblooded]

Great stuff here guys

[Brutus]

Great thread by cyclone and good addition by Rick.

[Chip R]

Great work, guys.

[Will M]

Nice post Jason.

I've noticed this more aggressive baserunning as well. IMO if the catcher has a good arm & the pitcher does a good job of holding the runner on then 98% of guys have no business trying to steal. You have to have a very high percentage of success in order to make a stolen base try worth it.

The kind of baserunning you are talking about is different. it involves using your brain by knowing how fast you are, how hard the ball was hit, who the outfielder is, etc. the Reds have been doing this all year long & very well. this is one of the 'little things' in baseball but over 162 games all the 'little things' add up to a few extra wins & a few extra losses.

i especially like going from 1B to 3B on a single to LF. Bronson did it today against Holliday & someone did it in Houston against Carlos Lee . its really taking it to the opposition.

[Mario-Rijo]

It's one of the reasons the Angels have been so good for so long now. And it started last season after Rolen got here, Votto picked up on it quick. This season alot of guys have been quite aggressive with it and it seems to be spreading. Scott, Jay and Joey all seem to be leading the charge with it. Certainly the most improved area of this unit.

[bucksfan2]

It's one of the reasons the Angels have been so good for so long now. And it started last season after Rolen got here, Votto picked up on it quick. This season alot of guys have been quite aggressive with it and it seems to be spreading. Scott, Jay and Joey all seem to be leading the charge with it. Certainly the most improved area of this unit.

I was at an Angles Reds game a couple of years ago. And I noticed the Angles small ball the heck out of the Reds. They went first to third on almost every single (it seemed like). They ran the bases aggressively and were successful quite a bit of the time.

In watching one particular Reds inning yesterday it reminded me of that Angles team. The Reds went first to third on two consecutive singles. They were constantly putting pressure on the Cards defense and it creates runs especially when you get to third with less than 2 outs.

[westofyou]

All Baker teams are aggressive on the basepaths, they take extra bases, hit and run, deke, extend leads, send guys who usually don't go on most teams, in general they do a lot of things that are more 70's style ball, plenty of HR's still in the lineup, but generating offense means placing risk in the journey. It works great with the right guys and is brutal with the wrong.

[Roy Tucker]

Good stuff, guys :thumbup:

Baserunning was a strength of the BRM. They'd 1st-to-3rd you all day.

And don't go to sleep with guys on 1st. Even Bench was in double digits for SBs in '75 and '76.

[George Anderson]

And don't go to sleep with guys on 1st. Even Bench was in double digits for SBs in '75 and '76.

Bench had 11 SB in 75' and was never caught stealing.

He had 13 SB in 76' and was only caught twice.

[mth123]

Votto running on a line drive by rolen and doubled off.
Votto caught between 2nd and third after driving in Phillips and runs the Reds out of an inning.
Phillips caught between second and third and is in the process of doing the same.

I respectfully diagree. This team is terrible on the bases and the pick-off and cs are the worst of the bunch.

[westofyou]

Votto running on a line drive by rolen and doubled off.
Votto caught between 2nd and third after driving in Phillips and runs the Reds out of an inning.
Phillips caught between second and third and is in the process of doing the same.

I respectfully diagree. This team is terrible on the bases and the pick-off and cs are the worst of the bunch.

I've seen Votto make 3 out on the paths prior to this game, he is the one player that I believe needs to reign it in. The others are changing the Reds game, the numbers will flesh it out, they'll also show the detractors.

[pedro]

Votto running on a line drive by rolen and doubled off.
Votto caught between 2nd and third after driving in Phillips and runs the Reds out of an inning.
Phillips caught between second and third and is in the process of doing the same.

I respectfully diagree. This team is terrible on the bases and the pick-off and cs are the worst of the bunch.

Votto was running on a full count, that's standard. Not much to say about that, pretty much every player in the majors gets doubled off on that play.

I think this team runs the bases very well on batted balls but isn't so great at base stealing or recognizing the pick off move.

[11larkin11]

Pretty much they're aggressive. They will make their fair share of mistakes, but also steal runs. I love it, personally.

BTW, I'm not sure how you can be upset on getting double up on a hit and run line drive? Did you not watch the game?

[mth123]

Votto was running on a full count, that's standard. Not much to say about that, pretty much every player in the majors gets doubled off on that play.

I think this team runs the bases very well on batted balls but isn't so great at base stealing or recognizing the pick off move.

I think that is fair. My issue is mostly stealing and getting picked off. WOY is right about stopping Votto to make a big improvement. Phillips is the other guy who has brain lock too much, but unlike in the example above its mostly on pick-offs and SB. Bruce had a CS over the week-end that cost the team.

I just don't think that stealing a base adds much. Most guys who score after a steal would probably have scored anyway and the one's who get caught kill rallies quickly. Steal when its a high success rate guy who can get himself around the bases mostly on his own in close games where no one is hitting (I don't think the Reds have anybody like that) or steal when the weak hitters are coming up but not in front of the good hitters. When the weak hitters are hitting (like the recent hot stretch we've had from the 6, 7 and 8 hole) stay put.

[_Sir_Charles_]

I agree with most of this. If there's anyone on the team who's having problems on the base paths, it's Votto. But I don't think there's enough mention of Mark Berry. I've seen one bonehead move after another from him this season.

[bucksfan2]

Votto running on a line drive by rolen and doubled off.
Votto caught between 2nd and third after driving in Phillips and runs the Reds out of an inning.
Phillips caught between second and third and is in the process of doing the same.

I respectfully diagree. This team is terrible on the bases and the pick-off and cs are the worst of the bunch.

Didn't see the the Phillips play but I saw the first 2. Votto getting doubled off 1st had nothing to do with poor base running, it had to do with poor luck. Heck I would venture to say that had Votto not been running Cabrera would have been doubled off 3rd.

Votto getting caught between 2nd and 3rd was caused by aggressive base running as well as fundamental defense. The Brewers don't hit the cutoff man and the ball goes through to home plate and Votto is standing at 3rd. The way it ended up the Brewers made the proper decision and caught Votto out to dry.

[vaticanplum]

I just don't think that stealing a base adds much. Most guys who score after a steal would probably have scored anyway and the one's who get caught kill rallies quickly. Steal when its a high success rate guy who can get himself around the bases mostly on his own in close games where no one is hitting (I don't think the Reds have anybody like that) or steal when the weak hitters are coming up but not in front of the good hitters. When the weak hitters are hitting (like the recent hot stretch we've had from the 6, 7 and 8 hole) stay put.

I think the issue is that steals are sexy. When they work.

[pedro]

I think that is fair. My issue is mostly stealing and getting picked off. WOY is right about stopping Votto to make a big improvement. Phillips is the other guy who has brain lock too much, but unlike in the example above its mostly on pick-offs and SB. Bruce had a CS over the week-end that cost the team.

I just don't think that stealing a base adds much. Most guys who score after a steal would probably have scored anyway and the one's who get caught kill rallies quickly. Steal when its a high success rate guy who can get himself around the bases mostly on his own in close games where no one is hitting (I don't think the Reds have anybody like that) or steal when the weak hitters are coming up but not in front of the good hitters. When the weak hitters are hitting (like the recent hot stretch we've had from the 6, 7 and 8 hole) stay put.


I'm happy to have Drew Stubbs steal. He has 8 SB and 1 CS.

[RedsManRick]

Here are the updated BP stats, FWIW:

EQGAR: 0.3 (up from 0.1)
EQSBR: -2.6 (down from -2.3)
EQAAR: 0.4 (up from 0.0)
EQHAR: 3.6 (up from 3.3)
EQOAR: -1.9 (down from -1.6)
EQBRR: -0.2 (up from -0.5)

So we took a hit on SB and Other, but are up on hit and out advancement and generally across the board.

[Chip R]

A hustle double from Heisey today helps the Reds win another game.