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View Full Version : Reds should trade for Greinke



TylerScottDavis
05-18-2010, 08:20 AM
Clark Fosler's article on Royals Authority outlining why he thinks the Royals should trade Greinke and what he thinks they could expect in return:

http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=2390 (http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=2390)

After reading through the Cliff Lee threads last night, I'm of the opinion we should push hard for Greinke instead. He's younger than Lee (26 to 31), cheaper (7.5 to 9) and we'd control him for longer (2.5 years to .5 years). He's also the better pitcher IMO. All that being said, he' probably cost us more in terms of talent as well.

I'd personally be willing to part with any 4 players in our Minor League system and Bailey from the Major League squad.

Assuming he's made available, I'm thinking a package of Bailey, Wood, Maloney, Mesoraco and Francisco gets it done.

Vottomatic
05-18-2010, 08:25 AM
All I know is that if Reds Management is serious, they have to consider that the one thing missing from this team is a true #1 starter. Whether it be Greinke or Lee, they will have to consider it come late July.

GIDP
05-18-2010, 08:28 AM
They would want Bruce.

mivers176
05-18-2010, 09:24 AM
I agree with the general idea here, we do need a solid #1 ace that can be a big game pitcher. We have guys that can maybe do it sometimes, but lacking consistency. Hopefully if we are in it come early trade deadline and there is a real possibility of getting someone of the Greinke / Lee caliper, even if only for a short time, i'd rather go down swinging than looking.

TylerScottDavis
05-18-2010, 09:25 AM
They would want Bruce.

Maybe, but I don't think it'd be too hard to push them in another direction.

The whole point for them in trading Greinke would that their team has so many holes to fill that 1 superstar isn't enough to help them win. They need quality and quantity.

If they went after a player like Bruce (already in the majors, very young, superstar potential, etc), he'd likely be just about all they got. Look at the returns for pitchers like Halladay, Lee, Sabathia, etc. No player like Bruce was dealt for any of those pitchers. Even the author of the article backs off from expecting any team's #1 prospect in return, acknowledging that few are ever dealt.

That being said, if they were willing to deal Greinke for Bruce straight up (+ a fringe guy), I'd consider that as well, but only because Greinke is so young and we'd control him for 2.5 years.

The deal breaker would be whether or not I could then swing a deal for a player such as Kemp, Markakis, or McCutchen to help fill the void left by Bruce.

BlastFurnace
05-18-2010, 10:27 AM
They would want too much for him...and besides...the Reds would never sign him long term to the $$$'s a pitcher like him would demand. So, we lose some great young talent for a Rent-a-Pitcher.

No thanks. We are finally getting this thing headed in the right direction...and we still haven't brought up Chapman. I see no reason to potentially derail this thing.

First Place.....for 2 days in a row!

The Operator
05-18-2010, 10:48 AM
I can't see why KC would ever trade Greinke, that article aside.

And even if they did, the bidding war for him would be of epic proportions. The "winner" would have to all but drain their farm system to get him. Not that he isn't worth it, but I just don't see The Reds landing him. Ever.

brm7675
05-18-2010, 11:15 AM
I can see the Reds looking for another good bat, but I just don't see them trading for another pitcher at this point.

bgwilly31
05-18-2010, 11:21 AM
Im not sure where all these pitching trades are coming from.

We have Volquez available after the all-star break, and chapman available hopefully around the same time. And these are only IF we need them. If the pitching staff continues to do even close to what they are doing over the past 9-10 games. Why do we need another pitcher?

krm1580
05-18-2010, 11:41 AM
My first thought the Royals would never trade Greinke so why are we discussing it. But after looking at his contract, I could see the merit it trading him. He is getting
7.25 Million this year but it jumps up to 13.5 in 2011 & 2012.

So 2 questions. Do the Royals have much of a chance winning during the remaining 2.5 years left on his contract. I would say NO. Do the Royals have much of a chance resigning him after 2012. I would say NO again. So if you can't win with him and can't keep him, the best thing to do is flip him for a King's Ransom when his value is at its highest

I personally don't think the Reds would be able to land him without giving up someone off their 25 man roster like a Bruce or Cueto which I would not be interested in doing. If it was just minor leaguers thought I would be willing to trade away the entire AAA team for him.

TylerScottDavis
05-18-2010, 11:42 AM
Why do we need another pitcher?

We don't need "another pitcher."

We need a true #1. Probably less than 12 of these guys even exist and even fewer are obtainable.

Pitching and defense wins championships. Especially pitching of the Cy Young variety.

Also, I wouldn't be counting on Volquez (coming off of Tommy John) or Chapman (4.63 ERA, 1.62 WHIP in AAA) to be that shutdown playoff ace we'll hopefully need.

Red in Atl
05-18-2010, 11:52 AM
I'd give them Harang, Dickerson, Lincoln, Maloney, Ondrusek and D. Thompson.

lidspinner
05-18-2010, 11:52 AM
We don't need "another pitcher."

We need a true #1. Probably less than 12 of these guys even exist and even fewer are obtainable.

Pitching and defense wins championships. Especially pitching of the Cy Young variety.

Also, I wouldn't be counting on Volquez (coming off of Tommy John) or Chapman (4.63 ERA, 1.62 WHIP in AAA) to be that shutdown playoff ace we'll hopefully need.

I agree with everything you wrote....but I really like the direction this team is heading...if ZG is available today then I say no way....if he is available after we see that Edinson or Chapman is not gonna make it, then I say OK.....but man o man, we have a wealth of "If's" on our staff right now and if those ifs turn our way then we have the best rotation in all of baseball...

I just hate to see things "changed" after things are going so well.....Lets revisit this idea come ASB.

lidspinner
05-18-2010, 11:53 AM
I'd give them Harang, Dickerson, Lincoln, Maloney, Ondrusek and D. Thompson.


So would Walt....so wouldnt the Royals.

The Voice of IH
05-18-2010, 11:58 AM
oh hell, I say we make a three way trade, get Greinke and Lee, and win this thing :D:beerme:

The Operator
05-18-2010, 12:28 PM
I'd give them Harang, Dickerson, Lincoln, Maloney, Ondrusek and D. Thompson.

So essentially Harang, who's having the worst season of his career - and a bunch of chaff for a Cy Young winner?

Can't see why The Royals would pass that one up.

Any deal with The Reds acquiring a guy like Greinke WILL have Yonder Alonso in it. Plus a lot more. But it ain't gonna happen.

mattfeet
05-18-2010, 12:41 PM
oh hell, I say we make a three way trade, get Greinke and Lee, and win this thing :D:beerme:

Wow, Id keel over dead if this ever came to fruition...

-Matt

Vottomatic
05-18-2010, 02:30 PM
I'd give them Harang, Dickerson, Lincoln, Maloney, Ondrusek and D. Thompson.

Why stop there. Throw in Lehr, Corky Miller, Carlos Fisher, Danny Dorn, Eymann, and manager Rick Sweet. :rolleyes:

Vottomatic
05-18-2010, 02:35 PM
Wow, Id keel over dead if this ever came to fruition...

-Matt

I would too.

I think both those pitchers will be available though. Neither team is going anywhere in the next several years, and both need to rebuild.

The Reds are stocked with young players nearly everywhere, and key veterans in the right place. They can unload Arroyo and Harang after this season. Cordero after the following season. They probably are looking to trade Phillips in the offseason to save more money.

Bruce, Stubbs, Heisey and a cheap Gomes/Nix in the OF.
Rolen ($7M) - worth it.
Cabrera, Janish or Valaika or Cozart - cheap and worth it.
Phillips - $11M next year........ugh.
Votto - heading toward arbitration soon.
Hanigan/Hernandez - cheap and worth it.

We have quality minor leaguers to deal for Greinke. He would really open eyes in St. Louis if we obtained him, wouldn't he? :beerme:

Red in Atl
05-18-2010, 03:58 PM
So essentially Harang, who's having the worst season of his career - and a bunch of chaff for a Cy Young winner?

Can't see why The Royals would pass that one up.

Any deal with The Reds acquiring a guy like Greinke WILL have Yonder Alonso in it. Plus a lot more. But it ain't gonna happen.


:confused: Do you guys know what sarcasm is? The Royals WILL NOT trade be trading Greinke. So who's next on the silly wish list after Lee and Greinke? :rolleyes:

PhillipsHead
05-18-2010, 04:43 PM
Too much $$ needed to get Greinke...awful idea.

Vottomatic
05-18-2010, 05:19 PM
Too much $$ needed to get Greinke...awful idea.

Huh?

He's only owed $7.5M this season. If you acquire him around July 1st, you only owe him $3.75M for the rest of the season.

At the end of the season, Arroyo and Harang get their contracts bought out for $2M a piece, saving roughly about $25M for next season. Greinke is owed $13.5M in '11 and in '12.

Who would you rather have? Harang for $12.5M or Greinke for $13.5M??????

Are you kidding me? You let a #3 starter go and pick up a #1 starter for $1M more.

It's a frickin' no-brainer if you ask me.

As for trading away our minor league prospects..........we have plenty to trade because we have very few major league positions available.

Outfield? No place to play with Bruce, Stubbs, Gomes, Heisey firmly locked in.
Third Base? We have no quality minor league third basemen ready anytime in the next couple of years for the majors.
Shortstop? We have Cabrera relatively cheap with Cozart on the way and Janish already on the team. And there's always Valaika too. You could trade Valaika, who is having a great season in triple A. He is playing mainly 2B. If they choose to save more money next season, they trade BP away and save his increased salary of $11M next year and bring up Valaika.

With Cueto, Bailey, Leake already up here.........and if you obtained Greinke.......you only have one spot left. If Volquez comes back, then he fills it. We also have a bunch of guys in the mix - Chapman, Maloney, Wood, Klinker..........

We have prospects to trade, starting with Alonso. We could get it done better than most teams, honestly.

gedred69
05-18-2010, 11:42 PM
Huh?

He's only owed $7.5M this season. If you acquire him around July 1st, you only owe him $3.75M for the rest of the season.

At the end of the season, Arroyo and Harang get their contracts bought out for $2M a piece, saving roughly about $25M for next season. Greinke is owed $13.5M in '11 and in '12.

Who would you rather have? Harang for $12.5M or Greinke for $13.5M??????

Are you kidding me? You let a #3 starter go and pick up a #1 starter for $1M more.

It's a frickin' no-brainer if you ask me.

As for trading away our minor league prospects..........we have plenty to trade because we have very few major league positions available.

Outfield? No place to play with Bruce, Stubbs, Gomes, Heisey firmly locked in.
Third Base? We have no quality minor league third basemen ready anytime in the next couple of years for the majors.
Shortstop? We have Cabrera relatively cheap with Cozart on the way and Janish already on the team. And there's always Valaika too. You could trade Valaika, who is having a great season in triple A. He is playing mainly 2B. If they choose to save more money next season, they trade BP away and save his increased salary of $11M next year and bring up Valaika.

With Cueto, Bailey, Leake already up here.........and if you obtained Greinke.......you only have one spot left. If Volquez comes back, then he fills it. We also have a bunch of guys in the mix - Chapman, Maloney, Wood, Klinker..........

We have prospects to trade, starting with Alonso. We could get it done better than most teams, honestly.

A reasonable evaluation in my opinion. The only exception is, I'm not sure I would be so willing to part company with Arroyo. A reliable 200+ innings 15 wins, never missed a start? I definately agree on the availabilty of Alonso. Where does he fit in here in the next 2-4 years? He was potential future trade bait when the Reds drafted him.

Jr's Boy
05-19-2010, 12:18 AM
They would want Bruce or Votto at the least.KC ain't letting a Cy Young winner go for peanuts.Of course if we are still in the hunt come middle of June I'm sure Walt is already planning a course of action.

redsfan_12
05-19-2010, 01:11 AM
They would want Bruce or Votto at the least.KC ain't letting a Cy Young winner go for peanuts.Of course if we are still in the hunt come middle of June I'm sure Walt is already planning a course of action.

I will be very upset if we ever get rid of Joey..Bruce if finally starting to wake up too, I dont think I would get rid of either. Just my opinion

BLEEDS
05-19-2010, 01:18 AM
They would want pitching, and tons of it, and some other cheap prospects.

Again, anyone not named Votto, Bruce, and Stubbs from the Big Team, and just about anyone not named Chapman in the minors.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

gilpdawg
05-19-2010, 01:31 AM
We don't have enough to get this done without blowing up half the team and farm. If I'm the Royals, any conversation starts with Votto, and that's the starting point. No way this happens. He'd probably slay in the little sister NL though.

TylerScottDavis
05-19-2010, 08:03 AM
Some of the trade proposals I'm seeing floated around seem a little extreme, in both directions. For comparison's sake here's an overview of the most recent Halladay/Lee/Lee trades.

In the Halladay trade, the Phillies gave up (C)Travis D'Arnaud, (P)Kyle Drabek, and (OF)Michael Taylor in exchange for Halladay and 6 million in cash from Toronto.

In the first Cliff Lee trade, the Phillies gave up (P)Carlos Carrasco, (P)Jason Knapp, (C)Lou Marson, and (SS)Jason Donald for Lee from Cleveland.

In the Cliff Lee trade, Seattle gave up (P)Phillipe Aumont, (P)Juan Ramirez, and (OF)Tyson Gillies in exchange for Lee from Philly.

You can also look at the Sabathia and Bedard trades for a point of reference regarding what it would likely take to acquire Greinke.

On the ORG, someone suggested we'd need to open offers with Bruce, Bailey, Leake and Alonso. Others insist any deal would have to include Votto.

None of the above trades (nor the Sabathia/Bedard trades) involved even 1 "prospect" who had reached the majors, much less anybody as developed as Votto.

Also consider that KC has Billy Butler at 1B, a 24 year old former 1st round draft pick who's already in his 4th major league season with a career OPS over .800 including .854 last year and .846 this year. I don't see why they would specifically target Votto or Alonso either one other than as LF'ers or DH's.

Obviously, if KC is demanding Bruce, Bailey, Leake and Alonso, Walt (and every other GM in the majors) will simply hang up the line.

Vottomatic
05-19-2010, 10:22 AM
Some of the trade proposals I'm seeing floated around seem a little extreme, in both directions. For comparison's sake here's an overview of the most recent Halladay/Lee/Lee trades.

In the Halladay trade, the Phillies gave up (C)Travis D'Arnaud, (P)Kyle Drabek, and (OF)Michael Taylor in exchange for Halladay and 6 million in cash from Toronto.

In the first Cliff Lee trade, the Phillies gave up (P)Carlos Carrasco, (P)Jason Knapp, (C)Lou Marson, and (SS)Jason Donald for Lee from Cleveland.

In the Cliff Lee trade, Seattle gave up (P)Phillipe Aumont, (P)Juan Ramirez, and (OF)Tyson Gillies in exchange for Lee from Philly.

You can also look at the Sabathia and Bedard trades for a point of reference regarding what it would likely take to acquire Greinke.

On the ORG, someone suggested we'd need to open offers with Bruce, Bailey, Leake and Alonso. Others insist any deal would have to include Votto.

None of the above trades (nor the Sabathia/Bedard trades) involved even 1 "prospect" who had reached the majors, much less anybody as developed as Votto.

Also consider that KC has Billy Butler at 1B, a 24 year old former 1st round draft pick who's already in his 4th major league season with a career OPS over .800 including .854 last year and .846 this year. I don't see why they would specifically target Votto or Alonso either one other than as LF'ers or DH's.

Obviously, if KC is demanding Bruce, Bailey, Leake and Alonso, Walt (and every other GM in the majors) will simply hang up the line.

Agreed.

I was writing a detailed post yesterday on past trades for top starters. My computer locked up and I had to reboot before it got posted. I was using Baseball Reference dot com for my info.

But you are correct in that you don't need to trade top major leaguers on your roster to acquire these guys. Teams are looking for prospects. We have plenty to trade.