Would anyone mind if Dickerson went to minors when healthy?

[Redsfan320]

Some stats to feast on. I know that Heisey's are a very small sample size, but check these out:

BA:
Heisey- .353
Gomes- .304
Nix- .260
Bruce- .257
Dickerson- .205
Stubbs- .190

OBP:
Heisey- .450
Bruce- .357
Gomes- .344
Nix- .302
Stubbs- .282.
Dickerson- .222

SLG:
Heisey- .882
Nix- .560
Gomes- .539
Bruce- .424
Stubbs- .336
Dickerson- .273

OPS:
Heisey- 1.332
Gomes- .883
Nix- .862
Bruce- .781
Stubbs- .618
Dickerson- .495

What if Dickerson just headed from the DL to Louisville? Just a thought (with stats to back it up like I know you all like)

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[Spring~Fields]

Some stats to feast on. I know that Heisey's are a very small sample size, but check these out:



I didn't see Stubbs in the list that you have provided.

Drew Stubbs .190 .282 .336 .618
vs. Left .238 .319 .476 .795
vs. Right .168 .266 .274 .540
Last 7 Days .143 .280 .286 .566


I wouldn’t mind if Dickerson and Stubbs were both in the minors or with another organization as long as the Reds have one in CF that can field and hit to take some of the weight off of the other players.

Can Nix or Heisey play CF anymore?

[camisadelgolf]

Why are you ommitting Stubbs? There's a very good chance that a Heisey/Dickerson platoon could outperform him.

[Redsfan320]

My bad. COMPLETELY forgot about the existence of Drew Stubbs. My apologies. I'll add him in.

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[Redsfan320]

Even after adding Stubbs in, Dickerson is still last in all the categories I posted except BA. Also, Stubbs been much better the past few weeks than the first few weeks.

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[Spring~Fields]

Even after adding Stubbs in, Dickerson is still last in all the categories I posted except BA. Also, Stubbs been much better the past few weeks than the first few weeks.
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I think that the Reds will eventually be able to do better than Stubbs or a Dickerson. I'm just not impressed with speed and a hope or these types of players below and ones who frequent the DL too often like Dickerson.


Drew Stubbs 2010 Willy Taveras 2009 Corey Patterson 2008
April .186 .301 .271 .572 April .262 .351 .338 .689 April .225 .292 .488 .780
May .194 .260 .403 .663 May .269 .307 .333 .640 May .180 .180 .197 .377
Last 7 .143 .280 .286 .566


What's taboo about giving Nix or Heisey a chance in CF?

[nate]

It's probably more informative to go with cumulative numbers:


Age Yrs PA G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB
ChrisHeisey 25 1 20 11 20 17 7 6 1 1 2 3 0 1 3 4 .353 .450 .882 1.332 243 15 0 0 0 0 0
JonnyGomes 29 8 1912 549 1912 1660 246 407 84 11 92 262 34 17 185 529 .245 .331 .475 .807 110 789 26 41 1 25 8
*ChrisDickerson 28 3 466 148 466 401 60 110 23 6 8 30 19 6 57 120 .274 .367 .421 .789 107 169 4 3 3 2 1
*JayBruce 23 3 1007 251 1007 902 136 219 38 6 47 126 11 10 93 223 .243 .317 .455 .772 100 410 16 7 1 4 5
*LaynceNix 29 8 1321 411 1321 1234 162 293 74 9 47 172 6 3 67 340 .237 .278 .426 .704 78 526 19 6 3 11 10
DrewStubbs 25 2 352 80 352 317 48 74 9 3 12 36 19 5 31 94 .233 .305 .394 .699 83 125 2 2 1 1 0

[Spring~Fields]

It's probably more informative to go with cumulative numbers:

So give us your interpretation Nate, and suggestion for course of action.

[nate]

So give us your interpretation Nate, and suggestion for course of action.

1. hire Nate
2. ???????
3. World Series Championship!

[Spring~Fields]

1. hire Nate
2. ???????
3. World Series Championship!

Too small of a sample. :)

Besides you might not decide before August or September. :p:

[nate]

So give us your interpretation Nate, and suggestion for course of action.

But seriously. To me, it all hinges on what they think of Stubbs. He's got a dreadful K-rate that's not improving to go with poor hitting. The poor hitting could be explained by a low BABIP but _that_ is probably explained by a very low LD%. He has an OK ISO which means when does hit one, it's for power and he does walk a good amount but he's just getting out too much. He does play great defense but I'd like to see if Heisey is a net better player. I think the Reds want to give Stubbs every chance to succeed though so my long-winded explanation is moot.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Dickerson go to Louisville after he comes off the DL. I think the Reds also want to see what they have in Hesiey. I just wish he would get more chances. I think the Reds believe LF is "solved" by Gomes so platoons aren't going to be the way they go. That leaves Heisey sharing spot starts in LF with Nix and maybe CF if they think they need to sit Stubbs. Whoever gets "hot" gets worked in more often.

Not earth-shattering but it's hard to get all those pieces in there.

[Spring~Fields]

But seriously. To me, it all hinges on what they think of Stubbs. He's got a dreadful K-rate that's not improving to go with poor hitting. The poor hitting could be explained by a low BABIP but _that_ is probably explained by a very low LD%. He has an OK ISO which means when does hit one, it's for power and he does walk a good amount but he's just getting out too much. He does play great defense but I'd like to see if Heisey is a net better player. I think the Reds want to give Stubbs every chance to succeed though so my long-winded explanation is moot.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Dickerson go to Louisville after he comes off the DL. I think the Reds also want to see what they have in Hesiey. I just wish he would get more chances. I think the Reds believe LF is "solved" by Gomes so platoons aren't going to be the way they go. That leaves Heisey sharing spot starts in LF with Nix and maybe CF if they think they need to sit Stubbs. Whoever gets "hot" gets worked in more often.

Not earth-shattering but it's hard to get all those pieces in there.

That's what I was looking for from you. I think that you did a great job. I couldn’t agree more. Besides that you’ve pointed out things that I did not even look at.

Something else that bothers me about Stubbs is that I don’t perceive the Reds to have faced many good pitchers, and he still struggles. Having wrote that, I suppose today he will go five for five after the negative spin on him.

[pedro]

I think Dickerson is going to have to go to AAA to prove he can stay healthy before he'll get another chance.

[Redsfan320]

Also, not completely related, Gomes and Nix deserve some serious love. According to Fay, we've got the most RBI from LF than any other team in the NL. Nix & Gomes have played every game there but 3. O/c this also means the batters ahead of them are getting on base, another good thing.

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[PuffyPig]

[/code]

What's taboo about giving Nix or Heisey a chance in CF?

I think the fact that Nix can't play CF precludes him from playing there.

I also find it hilarious that two games ago most posters here wanted Nix forever gone the way of the Taveras.

And now you want to make him our latex salesman......

[HokieRed]

To me, Dickerson should go to Louisville; the serious question, as I see it, is whether Stubbs should also. I'd still answer that "no," but the clock is running.

[Redsfan320]

I think the fact that Nix can't play CF precludes him from playing there.

He actually played there a couple times last year. I think he plays fine there.

To me, Dickerson should go to Louisville; the serious question, as I see it, is whether Stubbs should also. I'd still answer that "no," but the clock is running.

The problem with that is that then we only have 4 OF, which may not be a problem with the way they've been playing. We could also install Gomes full time in LF and go with:

LF: Gomes
CF: Nix/Heisey
RF: Bruce

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[alexad]

Stubbs is a Number 1 pick. He is going to get his chance to prove himself over a period of time. I think Dickerson's days as a member of the Reds organization are about over. It is time to see what other can do.

[nate]

I think the fact that Nix can't play CF precludes him from playing there.

I also find it hilarious that two games ago most posters here wanted Nix forever gone the way of the Taveras.

And now you want to make him our latex salesman......

So "most posters" from "two games ago" are the same people who "want to make him our latex salesman?"

[TheNext44]

I want Stubbs in CF everyday for his defense alone. As long as he's at the bottom of the order, he seems to hit enough to more than justify his defense. .324/.444/.767, outside the leadoff spot. And his speed adds to that production.

As for Nix or Dickerson, flip a coin. Dickerson is a better player, Nix can stay healthy. I'd rather try to trade one of them than send one to the minors, even if it's for a C prospect. They're both old enough that the minors won't help them, and both are completely replaceable.

[RedsManRick]

I'm not sure what that would accomplish. I don't think I'll ever understand the "prove you can stay healthy" argument. How do you do that? Is that 30 games? 80? An entire season? I fully understand not wanting to build around a guy who is injury prone, but that's not what we're talking about. If a guy is healthy and is the best option in a given game, what do you gain by not playing him? If you're not going to play him, who cares if he's healthy? Like benching guys with fouls in basketball, all it does is guarantees that you don't get any production from him.

In terms of the 5 OF we carry, if this team is serious about competing this year, Stubbs should be the one headed to AAA. He absolutely needs to be playing everyday, but Dickerson and Heisey can platoon in CF while Stubbs plays every day in Louisville and figures out how to make more contact.

Jonny Gomes sure is a fun guy to have around, but people really seem to be blinded by his attitude and slugging -- he's just not a very productive ball player.

[pedro]

I'm not sure what that would accomplish. I don't think I'll ever understand the "prove you can stay healthy" argument. How do you do that? Is that 30 games? 80? An entire season? I fully understand not wanting to build around a guy who is injury prone, but that's not what we're talking about. If a guy is healthy and is the best option in a given game, what do you gain by not playing him? If you're not going to play him, who cares if he's healthy? Like benching guys with fouls in basketball, all it does is guarantees that you don't get any production from him.

In terms of the 5 OF we carry, if this team is serious about competing this year, Stubbs should be the one headed to AAA. He absolutely needs to be playing everyday, but Dickerson and Heisey can platoon in CF while Stubbs plays every day in Louisville and figures out how to make more contact.

Jonny Gomes sure is a fun guy to have around, but people really seem to be blinded by his attitude and slugging -- he's just not a very productive ball player.

As he started off the year so horribly and then got hurt I would expect that he'd be down in AAA for a month or so to prove that he is healthy and to get his stroke back. After that, should Stubbs still be be struggling around the all-star break I'd look for the Reds to give Heisey and/or Dickerson a shot and Stubbs to be sent down.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Is it just me, or does Dickerson's stock skyrocket when he's OUT. When he's NOT playing...I see quite a few more "Dickerson will outperform xxx" and such. He certainly hasn't shown me anything THIS season. I've still got hopes for him...but he's no more than a 4th-5th outfielder at this point...and that's when he's healthy.

Stubbs has struggled...but he's got a TON more upside than Dickerson or Heisey IMO. For me, you treat him just like Bruce...put him in the lineup everyday and let them take their lumps. They both need AB's.

[RedsManRick]

As he started off the year so horribly and then got hurt I would expect that he'd be down in AAA for a month or so to prove that he is healthy and to get his stroke back. After that, should Stubbs still be be struggling around the all-star break I'd look for the Reds to give Heisey and/or Dickerson a shot and Stubbs to be sent down.

I would assume he'll have a fairly long rehab stint which will include time in AAA. If it's unclear whether or not he's healthy, he probably shouldn't come off the DL in the first place.

[_Sir_Charles_]

I think the fact that Nix can't play CF precludes him from playing there.

I normally agree with you Puffy...but not here. Nix is quite good in center defensively from what I've seen. He's more than capable out there IMO.

[Will M]

funny how things change. Gomes has been on an absolute tear & now Nix is also en fuego. Heisey barely hit his weight in AAA & yet has hit well here.
Dickerson has to heal & then go to AAA for some rehab ABs. by the time he is ready to return the OF situation could be a lot different than it is now.

[nate]

Is it just me, or does Dickerson's stock skyrocket when he's OUT.

I think the answer to that question is "No?"

His career performance is quite good. Handful of recent PAs notwithstanding.

Is it just me, or is more stock placed on a handful or exciting/disappointing performance recent than a career numbers that come closer to indicating true skill?

When he's NOT playing...I see quite a few more "Dickerson will outperform xxx" and such.

Because his career numbers indicate that.

He certainly hasn't shown me anything THIS season.


Let's say player X is a "lifetime .300 hitter" over 1000 ABs. Will you see 30 hits in any random 100 AB sample?

I've still got hopes for him...but he's no more than a 4th-5th outfielder at this point...and that's when he's healthy.

Stubbs has struggled...but he's got a TON more upside than Dickerson or Heisey IMO.

Why? If Dickerson hasn't shown you anything this season, I'm curious to know what Stubbs _has_ shown. I'm also curious to know why you wouldn't think Heisey could do a good job. He's outperformed Stubbs in a miniscule sample. What is the threshold of ABs to determine someone is good? More than Heisey but less than Dickerson this season?

[KronoRed]

Well I know one poster who won't mind if Dickerson never plays again :D

If Heisey is still performing, sure, but Stubbs really should pick it up as well, Gomes is a non issue because even if he returns to planet earth he will still be out there.

[durl]

I would vote to send Dickerson to Louisville.

Gomes is productive at the plate, Stubbs is effective in the field. Heisey, IMO, has earned the right to stay in Cincy. Cabrera seems to have risen to the occasion in the lead-off spot. Given Dickerson's tendency to injury, it seems as though he's the odd man out since other players are doing what he was supposed to provide.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Why? If Dickerson hasn't shown you anything this season, I'm curious to know what Stubbs _has_ shown. I'm also curious to know why you wouldn't think Heisey could do a good job. He's outperformed Stubbs in a miniscule sample. What is the threshold of ABs to determine someone is good? More than Heisey but less than Dickerson this season?

Tools. Stubbs is faster, bigger, has a better arm, has more power potential, and is a better defender than either of the other two. That being said...he could end up never reaching ANY of that potential that many scouts saw in him. But with those tools and his age...I want him to get every opportunity to see if he CAN reach that potential. Heisey is a good all-around player IMO. But his tool set doesn't really come that close to Stubbs'. He may end up out performing Drew, but his ceiling isn't nearly as high as Stubbs'. Dickerson has a different set of hitting skills IMO and they're very useful, but he can't stay on the field for any length of time it seems. But in raw physical skills, he's below Stubbs in pretty much every category.

This is all just my opinion of course. Who knows what will really happen.

And just to be clear, I really love both Dickerson AND Heisey. Stubbs too. This isn't me playing personal favorites or anything...just my honest opinion.

[Spring~Fields]

I think the fact that Nix can't play CF precludes him from playing there.

I also find it hilarious that two games ago most posters here wanted Nix forever gone the way of the Taveras.

And now you want to make him our latex salesman......

Gee Puffy, I didn't know that Dickerson and Stubbs was on your favorite list, Notre Dame grads ? :evil:

I don't want to make them anything, maybe you do? :laugh:

I wouldn't mind if Nix, Dickerson and Stubbs were gone, that would be with a presumption that a Jocketty brought in something better, anything wrong with that, Puffy?

[reds44]

There's no reason for Stubbs to be in the majors and Dickerson to be in the minors.

None.

[pedro]

There's no reason for Stubbs to be in the majors and Dickerson to be in the minors.

None.

That's debatable considering you are likely largely predicating your preference for Dickerson on his lifetime stats which are heavily skewed by a crazy hot streak in 2008 that was built on an unsustainable BABIP while ignoring the fact that he was off to a horrible start this year and has not been able to stay healthy throughout his career.

TMBS, Stubbs does need to pick it up if he intends to stay in the majors.

[LoganBuck]

I wouldn't mind both Dickerson and Stubbs spending time in AAA.

I have been a Stubbs supporter, but he has to hit more than he is now. Heisey is a far superior choice right now.

[_Sir_Charles_]

That's debatable considering you are likely largely predicating your preference for Dickerson on his lifetime stats which are heavily skewed by a crazy hot streak in 2008 that was built on an unsustainable BABIP while ignoring the fact that he was off to a horrible start this year and has not been able to stay healthy throughout his career.

TMBS, Stubbs does need to pick it up if he intends to stay in the majors.

Agreed.

Side note..."TMBS"? New one on me.

[Homer Bailey]

Chris Dickerson has a career .371 BABip with a 21% LD rate. I think he's a .700 OPS bat once that BABip normalizes, and will never see him as anything better than a 4th OF.

[reds44]

That's debatable considering you are likely largely predicating your preference for Dickerson on his lifetime stats which are heavily skewed by a crazy hot streak in 2008 that was built on an unsustainable BABIP while ignoring the fact that he was off to a horrible start this year and has not been able to stay healthy throughout his career.

TMBS, Stubbs does need to pick it up if he intends to stay in the majors.
Didn't Dickerson have a .380 OBP last year?

[Homer Bailey]

Didn't Dickerson have a .380 OBP last year?

.370 with a .360 BABip.

[reds44]

.370 with a .360 BABip.
Speed kills :D

[TheNext44]

I think it's funny that people want Heisey to replace Stubbs and/or Dickerson because of his hot start to his major league career.

Hmmm....where have I heard this argument before..?

Dickerson first month in MLB in 2008: .304 .413 .608 1.021

Stubbs first month in MLB in 2009: .267 .323 .439 .762

[RED VAN HOT]

I am not sure what Dickerson has left to prove at AAA. His poor stats this year can be written off as a bad start (44AB's) and should be viewed in the context of his overall major league numbers. That said, I believe Heisey will be much more valuable to the Reds both this year and in the future and should be kept on the roster. Heisey seems to be a perfect fit for the aggressive style of play we have seen from this year's Reds.

I would try to trade Dickerson. The San Diego outfield collectively is hitting .209. Nor are they particularly young. Two are on the DL. Dickerson would be an improvement at any of the three OF positions.

[nate]

I think it's funny that people want Heisey to replace Stubbs and/or Dickerson because of his hot start to his major league career.

Hmmm....where have I heard this argument before..?

Dickerson first month in MLB in 2008: .304 .413 .608 1.021

Stubbs first month in MLB in 2009: .267 .323 .439 .762

I don't want Heisey to replace Stubbs, I just want to see what Heisey can do.

[mth123]

Keep em all and send Cairo packing. The idea of needing 2 UI is overblown. Janish isn't going to be used as a PH and will be available in the event of an injury. If some one gets hurt and can't go for a few days, then the roster can be adjusted. Stubbs though needs to get it together or go down.

[Spring~Fields]

I think it's funny that people want Heisey to replace Stubbs and/or Dickerson because of his hot start to his major league career.


I think it is more about Stubbs not so hot start. After people being sold on his hot start to his major league career based on nothing more than 196 PA and 180 AB, against the competition last late season.


Drew Stubbs .190 .282 .336 .618
vs. Left .238 .319 .476 .795
vs. Right .168 .266 .274 .540
Last 7 Days .143 .280 .286 .566


Besides that, how do you tell Heisey and Stubbs apart?


AAA (2 seasons) .272 .353 .379 .731 AAA (2 seasons) .269 .319 .457 .776
AA (1 season) .315 .400 .402 .802 AA (2 seasons) .340 .409 .554 .963
A+ (1 season) .261 .366 .406 .772 A+ (2 seasons) .292 .382 .438 .820
A (1 season) .270 .364 .421 .785 A (1 season) .289 .350 .436 .785
Rk (1 season) .252 .368 .400 .768 Rk (1 season) .286 .362 .400 .762

PA 1847 AB 1588 PA 2019 AB 1772
SO 433 SO 280
H 472 H 524
BB 219 BB 172
HR 28 HR 51
SB 121 SB 88

[Spring~Fields]

I don't want Heisey to replace Stubbs, I just want to see what Heisey can do.

Yeah, something like that. How does anyone, Reds professionals or we the fans know for sure without seeing Heisey play? If they can afford to carry Stubbs with his production, can't the Reds afford a chance for Heisey too?

[Captain Hook]

I had the same conversation earlier this week with some friends and hammered the point that Nix just needs to be let go to make room when Dickerson comes back.I pointed out that Nix strikes out way too much and really hasn't shown too much power this year.My feeling at the time was that he was pretty much useless.

So at least for today I'm having crow for dinner.

After the last few games I have obviously changed my mind.If Cabrera is going to lead off and I believe he will if healthy then Dickerson has little use.I like him but Nix stays healthy and would be history if not kept on the Reds roster.Does Dickerson still have options?If so send him down to see him he can dominate AAA pitching.It's not like he has ever done that in the past.

[Spring~Fields]

I had the same conversation earlier this week with some friends and hammered the point that Nix just needs to be let go to make room when Dickerson comes back.I pointed out that Nix strikes out way too much and really hasn't shown too much power this year.My feeling at the time was that he was pretty much useless.

So at least for today I'm having crow for dinner.



Oh we should be crediting you with the recent hot streak of Nix. That happens so frequently, write or say something positive or negative about player x, y or z and they will invariably go in the opposite direction for awhile. Seems like strange phenomena to me.

[WebScorpion]

Stubbs has struggled...but he's got a TON more upside than Dickerson or Heisey IMO. For me, you treat him just like Bruce...put him in the lineup everyday and let them take their lumps. They both need AB's.

I think this is the way Reds Management sees it as well. They seem to give their high draft choices plenty (at least a full season, more for pitchers) of Major League playing time before they make any sort of decision on them. I think Stubbs will get similar treatment to Jay Bruce in 2009. The lower prospects get a lot less rope...I guess they look at it as trying to avoid wasting the larger investments. It must be difficult to look at baseball as a business. I don't think I could do it...getting to know the players and their lives and stories, I'm sure I'd feel connections that would cloud my business judgement. Now I'm rambling..... http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-merv/split.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)

[RED VAN HOT]

I think this is the way Reds Management sees it as well. They seem to give their high draft choices plenty (at least a full season, more for pitchers) of Major League playing time before they make any sort of decision on them. I think Stubbs will get similar treatment to Jay Bruce in 2009. The lower prospects get a lot less rope...I guess they look at it as trying to avoid wasting the larger investments. It must be difficult to look at baseball as a business. I don't think I could do it...getting to know the players and their lives and stories, I'm sure I'd feel connections that would cloud my business judgement. Now I'm rambling..... http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-merv/split.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)

Good point. Also, I believe that management puts a higher value on defense in the offense-defense trade-off than most RZ posters.

[TheNext44]

Jonny Gomes sure is a fun guy to have around, but people really seem to be blinded by his attitude and slugging -- he's just not a very productive ball player.

I agree that Gomes' defense pretty much wipes out his offensive production. But it seems to me that if the Reds had a true replacement level guy in Gomes' spot on the roster (which is what his WAR suggests he has been so far) they would have won around 3-4 less games than they have so with him on the roster. His offense in many particular games has been a real difference maker, while his defense has only been a factor in a few.

I'm pretty sure that over the whole season, his WAR will more accurately reflect his true production, but I think that right now it's undervaluing it.