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View Full Version : When does Herrera get demoted?



Griffey012
05-23-2010, 04:33 PM
He has been a fun guy to watch, but he has not been able to get anyone out this season. His opponents avg against was .364 before today and is only going to be higher now. He has fallen below Lincoln on the relief totem pole I would have to believe. He is right there with Fisher as far as our last 2 options out of the pen, the difference being Herrera is not a guy that should be looked at to give you a full inning, where Fisher should be. The problem is we can't use Herrera as a specialist because he isn't getting people out.

GIDP
05-23-2010, 05:05 PM
Career 3.46 ERA. Yea totally demotion worthy.

sabometrics
05-23-2010, 05:17 PM
If his struggles (~9 ERA, ~3 WHIP in May) continue into mid-June he'll be in trouble. Until then he's been good enough historically before this month that he'll stick around.

mroby85
05-23-2010, 05:38 PM
Career 3.46 ERA. Yea totally demotion worthy.

His career isn't very lengthy, and it wouldn't be the first time someone was demotion worthy in that situation. Jared Burton had a very solid year before he was demoted because he couldn't get people out. Dray clearly isn't getting the job done this year, if he doesn't get it together soon, I think it's time to look a different direction.

Griffey012
05-23-2010, 05:42 PM
Career 3.46 ERA. Yea totally demotion worthy.

The question I asked was when...I did not say he should be demoted right after today just because of today. You can't deny he has been very, very hittable the month of May and is a situational reliever as compared to a full inning type. Our bullpen is getting used and abused with so many games and innings. It is having and adverse effect on Herrera because he is constantly having to come in in full inning situations instead of pitching to a hitter or two. At some point something has to give and Herrera has to be put into a situation where he can succeed ( a short relief role, 1 or 2 batters.), with the way he has been getting hit around most of this season (1.63 WHIP) he can't be brought into that role in a close game. And our bullpen is going to have to have another pitcher who can give them a 1 or 2 inning appearance to rest some guys in the games that are not close.

As Sabometrics pointed out, likely mid-June if his struggles continue would be a reasonable assumption.

GIDP
05-23-2010, 05:43 PM
If he struggles for another month sure but right now? No simply not enough innings to makethat decision.

Kingspoint
05-23-2010, 05:51 PM
This conversation comes up with Relievers often.

It came up with Herrera last year. Then Herrera proved everyone who thought this wrong by having a stellar season. He'll be excellent again this season when the body of his work will be looked at come October.

Kingspoint
05-23-2010, 05:54 PM
This is still May and it's still a time for Dusty to be experimenting with different lineups, situations, and scenarios. It's a time to set up the last 4 months of the season....the hot months, the months where you either earn yourself a trip to the playoff or you don't.

I'll be interested to see how things shape up in June, now that we know we're going to be in contention during the whole month of June.

DirtyBaker
05-23-2010, 06:11 PM
AAA might do him some good, He so can get some more work and find his confidence in the minors. I remember that strategy working well with EE when we still had him. Del Rosario is tearing it up right now - not allowing a run in at least his last 10 outings. He could come up for Herrera. I think they should think they should make the move as soon as they can.

sivman17
05-23-2010, 06:23 PM
Career 3.46 ERA. Yea totally demotion worthy.

Really? You're using a reliever's ERA to say that he shouldn't be demoted? That's about the most useless statistic to use for a reliever.

How bout looking at his WHIP, which is a whopping 1.74. For a relief pitcher, that's not getting it done. Plus, his Opp BA is .373.

I'm not saying we should send him down yet... but.. he is knocking at AAA's door.

GIDP
05-23-2010, 06:29 PM
Really? You're using a reliever's ERA to say that he shouldn't be demoted? That's about the most useless statistic to use for a reliever.

How bout looking at his WHIP, which is a whopping 1.74. For a relief pitcher, that's not getting it done. Plus, his Opp BA is .373.

I'm not saying we should send him down yet... but.. he is knocking at AAA's door.

Career Whip is 1.47.

.556 OPS against lefties

Have a nice day.

Kingspoint
05-23-2010, 06:49 PM
.556 OPS against lefties



Nothing more needs to be said on the topic.

sivman17
05-23-2010, 07:02 PM
Career Whip is 1.47.

.556 OPS against lefties

Have a nice day.

Yeah, and his OPS this year against lefties is .924. And, they are hitting .421 off of him.

:beerme:

Redeye fly
05-23-2010, 07:03 PM
Career Whip is 1.47.

.556 OPS against lefties

Have a nice day.

1.47 is still by no means nice and tidy. I mean I know not every pitcher is going to be 1.2 and below, whether they're a starter or reliever.

Personally I'm not saying demote him, but he is a guy who with his overall lack of stuff, or at least overall lack of fastball, could fall off in a hurry. I know he was very good last year, but he's a guy who is almost the textbook definition of "no margin for error". He benefits by the fact that not a lot of hitters see a screwball. But if he misses with that or hitters stay off of it and make him throw that mid 80's fastball, then he's obviously in trouble.

He could easily be one of those guys who was a "great story" for a year and then gets his brains beat in pretty consistently after that.

But then again, he was pitching very well at the start of the year, so we'll see how he does. I will say I'm not sure there's much room for a lefthander with marginal stuff who can't get lefthanders out. I mean, you can say small sample size and you wouldn't necessarily be incorrect. But he does have to get them out, because he really doesn't serve much of a purpose if he doesn't do that.

Kingspoint
05-23-2010, 07:12 PM
He's not a player who will "fall off in a hurry".

He's a smart pitcher who's got enough junk to always get enough hitters out, especially left-handers. All other teams would kill to have a Lefty with a lifetime OPS-against in the .550's. That's a quality that's going to allow Herrera to pitch another 10 years in the Majors. He'll never see the minors again unless it's on a rehab assignment, and there's nothing that implies he should not be in the Majors.

In fact, it's likely that he goes his next 7 outings with 6 of those being times that he doesn't allow a run.

Herrera is an outstanding reliever, and we're very lucky to have him.

jimbo
05-23-2010, 07:19 PM
Can we all just let the players play and realize they aren't going to hit .400 and knock in 200 men.

What happened to this? I know we are talking about a pitcher here, but the above quote can also apply. Every player is going to go through rough patches, having a revolving door of demotions and promotions is not the answer. The team, and organization, needs some continuity.

Redeye fly
05-23-2010, 07:21 PM
Nothing more needs to be said on the topic.

Don't know if I entirely agree. I mean that's over the course of 1 season. He wouldn't be the first guy in history who had one good year and then stunk it up after that.

I mean it's less than 13 innings this year, so I know that's next to nothing. But I think it's a little natural to be concerned with a guy like Herrera when you're looking at a guy who's got a good screwball but seemingly little else to concern hitters. Maybe it's a temporary thing, but right now he's just serving up too many good, hittable pitches. He's not walking guys, he's walked 1 batter all year. But with his stuff, if he leaves pitches in the bad part of the strike zone, it's advantage hitter in most cases... even more so than with a lot of guys in the league who throw 10-15 mph harder than Herrera.

Redeye fly
05-23-2010, 07:39 PM
He's not a player who will "fall off in a hurry".

He's a smart pitcher who's got enough junk to always get enough hitters out, especially left-handers. All other teams would kill to have a Lefty with a lifetime OPS-against in the .550's. That's a quality that's going to allow Herrera to pitch another 10 years in the Majors. He'll never see the minors again unless it's on a rehab assignment, and there's nothing that implies he should not be in the Majors.

In fact, it's likely that he goes his next 7 outings with 6 of those being times that he doesn't allow a run.

Herrera is an outstanding reliever, and we're very lucky to have him.

Is he?

At this point, I don't know if you're much more correct than those on the other side of the discussion. 69 innings does carry a good bit more weight than 13 innings does, of that there's no doubt. And he has been very good up to this point in his career. But relievers can go from very very good to incredibly shaky with no warning. All I'm saying for my part is while I think he can turn it around, I want to see more than one good year before I consider him to be an outstanding reliever, whom we're lucky to have.

Griffey012
05-23-2010, 07:43 PM
What happened to this? I know we are talking about a pitcher here, but the above quote can also apply. Every player is going to go through rough patches, having a revolving door of demotions and promotions is not the answer. The team, and organization, needs some continuity.
The original quote I brought that up on was in the "Jay Bruce's offense is a joke" thread, in which due to a poor 3 game set people wanted to be done with Jay Bruce, even after he spent the last month upping his average from .180 to .280. Herrera was ok the first couple weeks, then was good for 2 weeks, and has been very bad for 3 weeks.

The issue I was bringing up with Herrera is due to the fact that he is currently struggling to get people out, and his role ideally is a 1 or 2 batter specialist, not a 1 to 2 inning guy. With the way our bullpen has been taxed recently, we could definitely use another arm such as Del Rosario or someone who can eat some innings. Right now Herrera needs to get back into his groove and become that effective guy who has the .556 ops against lefties. But it looks like the coaching staff has lost some confidence and he is in the group of Fisher and Lincoln and not with Masset and Rhodes.

I am by no means advocating trading the guy, releasing him, etc. I just think if he doesn't piece it together soon, a trip to AAA for a couple weeks would be good for both him and the overall bullpen. I still think he is an vital piece of the pen as he was last year.

Vottomatic
05-23-2010, 07:46 PM
Yeah, and his OPS this year against lefties is .924. And, they are hitting .421 off of him.

:beerme:

:thumbup:

Yep. He definitely needs demoted and Rosario should be brought up immediately. Not to mention the entire bullpen needs a wake-up call.

For all those saying it's still May..........it's close to June and I'm sick of our bullpen stinking it up.

sivman17
05-23-2010, 07:50 PM
It is a very small sample size, but he needs to get his act together soon. If he doesn't, he's going to be another Chris Hammond (a la 2006), a lefty throwing 70-80 right down the middle of the plate getting raked.

Kingspoint
05-25-2010, 12:05 AM
Don't know if I entirely agree. I mean that's over the course of 1 season. He wouldn't be the first guy in history who had one good year and then stunk it up after that.

I mean it's less than 13 innings this year, so I know that's next to nothing. But I think it's a little natural to be concerned with a guy like Herrera when you're looking at a guy who's got a good screwball but seemingly little else to concern hitters. Maybe it's a temporary thing, but right now he's just serving up too many good, hittable pitches. He's not walking guys, he's walked 1 batter all year. But with his stuff, if he leaves pitches in the bad part of the strike zone, it's advantage hitter in most cases... even more so than with a lot of guys in the league who throw 10-15 mph harder than Herrera.

I'm looking at the body of his work since he signed his first professional contract. That covers at least half a dozen years.

Griffey012
07-01-2010, 12:30 AM
If his struggles (~9 ERA, ~3 WHIP in May) continue into mid-June he'll be in trouble. Until then he's been good enough historically before this month that he'll stick around.

Looks like you called it pretty well...here's to hoping Wood pitches great, and Herrera goes back to being lights out in AAA.