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View Full Version : 1999, 2006, or somewhere in between?



maniem
06-01-2010, 01:13 AM
With today's loss, the next two games could be potential turning points to the season. Lose the next two games, and I fear this could be 2006 all over again. In 2006, the Reds peaked at 36-24, and then quickly lost a bunch of games in a row to fall back to .500 by late June. The Reds simply cannot get swept, they have to find a way to win at least one of these games the next two days. I realize that if they do get swept, it's still not even a third of the way through the season, but avoiding a sweep would go a long way in not repeating the slide that happened in '06. (Which by the way, a sweep to the Cards was part of the losing streak that brought them back to .500).

Is this another 1999 team? I'd like to think so, but I doubt it. Is this another 2006 season? I really hope not. My hope is that the starting pitching is good enough to avoid long losing streaks and keep them above the .500 mark. If they can do this, and avoid a bunch of injuries, they'll stay in the hunt, and anything can happen. My guess is that they'll finish somewhere around their last winning season - 2000, where they won 85 games. Will this be good enough to make the playoffs?

GIDP
06-01-2010, 01:30 AM
the 2006 team wasnt terrible. They had 1 awful road trip late that ruined that year. I dont see this team really falling off that badly because its full of better all around baseball players and they have veterans that arent lazy and just collecting paychecks or just out for themselves.

captainmorgan07
06-01-2010, 02:02 AM
I would venture to say this team is more towards 1999. The starting pitching is way different than in 2006. Better lineup also. Bullpen might be slightly worse though.

sabometrics
06-01-2010, 02:04 AM
It is neither. This is a completely different team, with an identity entirely its own.

Even if they get swept in St. Louis there is little reason to panic when the offense looks capable and the rotation looks strong enough, and even more importantly, deep enough to sustain a few injuries and still keep on rolling with quality options in AAA. That's the biggest reason I'm optimistic about this team as opposed to past seasons is the pitching. I'm confident the starting pitching will be there and will keep us in the running, barring multiple extended injuries.

Leake is a crafty pitcher with wisdom on the mound beyond his years. Arroyo is a dependable, rubber-armed vet with the same crafty aura on the mound. Cueto is coming of age. While Bailey hasn't shown his best this season as of yet there's still reason to believe he can be great. He has developed a fire in him that feels like could make him an intimidating presence every 5th day when he gets back out there. Harang is a veteran that, despite all the ire he brings out on this board, is still valuable as a back of the rotation starter. And having guys like Chapman, LeCure, Wood, and Maloney in AAA to fall back on that we have not had in the past is further reason to be encouraged.

The bullpen is horrible right now, but that alone is not reason enough to write this team off.

Kingspoint
06-01-2010, 03:15 AM
This is new ground.

I haven't seen a group of Starters like this before.

Vottomatic
06-01-2010, 09:53 AM
Geez. Did you expect Arroyo to keep dominating all season? He has games like this from time to time.

The Cardinals got swept IN ST. LOUIS by the last place Houston Astros back around May 11th, in a 3 game series. Did their season end then?

It happens. Knock it off with the panic button already. When we fall to 3rd or 4th, then we can start having this discussion. But right now we're still tied for 1st place and have one of the better records in baseball.

Our starters are going to have rough outings from time to time. We're going to go through injuries here and there. We're going to have rain delays that mess us up or sometimes mess up the other club. Stuff happens.

Every time we lose it gives someone reason to be negative. Can't we be happy for once?

Fon Duc Tow
06-01-2010, 12:09 PM
If the Reds get swept by the Cards this week, then that probably ruins their chances for the next 5...6 seasons at least.

:cool:

redhat
06-01-2010, 12:30 PM
It's always hard to tell how a young team will react to adversity. Most of the time you don't know if a team is the real deal until late July or August.

I think the Reds have a good chance of sticking around because of the veteran leadership in the clubhouse. You have guys that have won it all (Rolen, Cabrera, Arroyo) and other guys with plenty of postseason experience like Miguel Cairo.

Take it from a guy who's been watching baseball for over 40 years. Keep an eye on your road W/L record. If you win more than you lose on the road, you have a fine team.

maniem
06-01-2010, 12:45 PM
Who's being negative? I never said the season was over if they get swept. All I am saying is that if they can avoid the sweep and win one of the next two games, i think they'll be in this race for the whole year. If they do get swept, it's not the end of the world, and I still think they can hang around. But the Reds need to believe they can not only play with the Cards, but beat them, and beat them in their own park. They proved last series in Cincy they can beat them. I want them to prove they can win in St. Louis. That is a huge confidence booster for a young team. To win this division, you have to take down the best, and the Cards have been the class of the division for the last few years. I'm sure the Cards are waiting for the Reds to fade away like past years. If they avoid the sweep, or even take 2 out of 3, the Reds are making a statement that they're for real.

Vottomatic
06-01-2010, 12:47 PM
The Cardinals lineup features Pujols and Holliday. After that, I'm not impressed.

So we have nobody at the level of Pujols. Statistically, Joey Votto isn't that far off, actually........but I won't go so far as to compare Joey to Albert. Not fair to either one of them.

But after that, I'll put Votto, Rolen, Gomes, and Bruce up against the Cards 4 best hitters any day of the week. Our 4 beats their 4, in my opinion.

Lohse and Penny are down for the count. Carpenter, Wainwright and Garcia are pretty tough. But Cueto and Leake aren't exactly slouches either.

We trade for Cliff Lee, we wrap this thing up as soon as the ink is dry.

redhat
06-01-2010, 12:49 PM
I'm sure the Cards are waiting for the Reds to fade away like past years.
I'm sure they're not. I've read plenty of quotes from Cards players about how good a team the Reds have. Not to mention that La Russa keeps his team focused on the present. You don't win games by assuming the other guys aren't good enough to beat you.

Vottomatic
06-01-2010, 12:49 PM
Who's being negative? I never said the season was over if they get swept. All I am saying is that if they can avoid the sweep and win one of the next two games, i think they'll be in this race for the whole year. If they do get swept, it's not the end of the world, and I still think they can hang around. But the Reds need to believe they can not only play with the Cards, but beat them, and beat them in their own park. They proved last series in Cincy they can beat them. I want them to prove they can win in St. Louis. That is a huge confidence booster for a young team. To win this division, you have to take down the best, and the Cards have been the class of the division for the last few years. I'm sure the Cards are waiting for the Reds to fade away like past years. If they avoid the sweep, or even take 2 out of 3, the Reds are making a statement that they're for real.

If the Cardinals are going to base their entire season on beating up the Reds and being so-so against everyone else. I'll take that bet. Because even if we lose the overall against the Cardinals, we are taking care of business against everyone else.

There is more to the season than just beating the Cardinals.

Girevik
06-01-2010, 12:54 PM
Geez. Did you expect Arroyo to keep dominating all season? He has games like this from time to time.

That's been one of my fears. He doesn't just tend to have a game like this from "time to time", but rather he seems to always have a stretch of games where he just can't get anyone out. I hope this isn't the start of that run for him.....if so, that would be a bad sign for the hopes of a division championship.

maniem
06-01-2010, 12:59 PM
The Cardinals lineup features Pujols and Holliday. After that, I'm not impressed.

So we have nobody at the level of Pujols. Statistically, Joey Votto isn't that far off, actually........but I won't go so far as to compare Joey to Albert. Not fair to either one of them.

But after that, I'll put Votto, Rolen, Gomes, and Bruce up against the Cards 4 best hitters any day of the week. Our 4 beats their 4, in my opinion.

Lohse and Penny are down for the count. Carpenter, Wainwright and Garcia are pretty tough. But Cueto and Leake aren't exactly slouches either.

We trade for Cliff Lee, we wrap this thing up as soon as the ink is dry.


I agree with this completely. Outisde of Pujols, Holliday, Carpenter, and Wainright, that is an average team at best. The Reds are more balanced, by far. It's more about believing and knowing they can beat the Cards. I'd love to see the Reds be the class of this division once again. And I hope this is the year they can finally do it.

maniem
06-01-2010, 01:05 PM
If the Cardinals are going to base their entire season on beating up the Reds and being so-so against everyone else. I'll take that bet. Because even if we lose the overall against the Cardinals, we are taking care of business against everyone else.

There is more to the season than just beating the Cardinals.

Agree with this also. The Reds are taking care of business against teams they should be. The Cards are not. I guess as long as the Reds can win the division, it doesn't matter how they do it, just as long as they're at the top. Maybe this is how Red Sox fans felt towards the Yankees during their years of dominating the division. Sooner or later, you want to be able to take out the top dog yourself.

redhat
06-01-2010, 01:12 PM
But after [Pujols and Holliday], I'll put Votto, Rolen, Gomes, and Bruce up against the Cards 4 best hitters any day of the week. Our 4 beats their 4, in my opinion.
In other words, your 1-4 beats our 3-6?

Heck, you could make the same argument about the Yankees. Take Jeter and A-Rod out of the equation, and your 1-4 beats their 3-6 too. Teixeira is only hitting .221. He must be terrible.

The question is, can your 1-4 hit against the best pitchers? That's when you'll find out how good they are.

Vottomatic
06-01-2010, 02:30 PM
That's been one of my fears. He doesn't just tend to have a game like this from "time to time", but rather he seems to always have a stretch of games where he just can't get anyone out. I hope this isn't the start of that run for him.....if so, that would be a bad sign for the hopes of a division championship.

In defense of Arroyo, other than a couple of hits, St. Louis wasn't tearing the cover off the ball. They were squirting through the infield. And Holliday got lucky on the double that was just barely fair down third base.

My other argument was an inconsistent strikezone put on by the ump behind the plate. Two of the pitches to Garcia, who ended up walking, were definitely strikes, but the ump was stingy.

Jay Bruce came up in the 5th or 6th inning and the first pitch to him was low but called a strike. I couldn't believe it. Jay was taking all the way because he just knew it was low. He kept from looking at the ump, but you could just tell he couldn't believe it. So the next pitch was at the same height, but still in the strikezone but away from Bruce. Jay started to swing but held up, probably thinking it was in about the same place as the last pitch, which it ended up nearly being. The ump called it a ball. Just blew me away how inconsistent he was. Also seemed like it tightened up when the Cards were at the plate and got wider, higher and lower when we were.

Others were commenting on the game thread about it too.

Again, just one of those games where everything was working against us.

redhat
06-01-2010, 03:14 PM
When you get beat by eight runs, blaming the umpires is an insult to the winning team.

Some days you just stink. Happens to every team many times per year.

Vottomatic
06-01-2010, 05:52 PM
When you get beat by eight runs, blaming the umpires is an insult to the winning team.

Some days you just stink. Happens to every team many times per year.

The winning team is a bunch of crybabies. They whine and complain more than any team in mlb.

They deserve to be insulted.

But thanks for your all-knowing wisdom. I didn't realize that some days you just stink.

redhat
06-01-2010, 07:31 PM
They whine and complain more than any team in mlb.
But not more than you. :cool:

maniem
06-02-2010, 01:10 AM
Great win tonight. Absolutely a must win and the Reds held on. They didn't roll over and die, I think they've proven they're in this for the year. Here's hoping they can figure out a way to beat Carpenter tomorrow. If not, they'll still leave St. Louis in a first game tie....

Vottomatic
06-02-2010, 04:53 AM
The Reds *****slapped St. Louis tonight.

I'm so proud of them.

St. Louis is the biggest bunch of the most arrogant players in the NL. Good to see us put them in their place.

Vottomatic
06-02-2010, 12:25 PM
But not more than you. :cool:

I figured you'd disappear after last night. :thumbup:

redhat
06-02-2010, 07:08 PM
Don't bet on me disappearing until the series ends.

Vottomatic
06-02-2010, 11:49 PM
Don't bet on me disappearing until the series ends.

Oh I'm sure of it. You fit in well as a Cards fan. Only a loser would come to a Reds message board to taunt their fans.

Get a life. :rolleyes:

ThornWithin81
06-02-2010, 11:57 PM
We panic easily here, don't we?

Win some, lose some.

GIDP
06-02-2010, 11:58 PM
Don't bet on me disappearing until the series ends.

Im guessing not many at the Cardinals board miss you. ;)

redhat
06-03-2010, 12:00 AM
They don't miss me at all. I'm posting on both game threads.

This one is more active. That's why I'm here. And goodnight, gentlemen.

Vottomatic
06-03-2010, 12:02 AM
Enjoy your final good season. Next season the Cards will have $70M+ invested in 3 players - Holliday, Pujols and Carpenter. The rest of the team will be a scrap heap.