Who would you rather jettison...Harang or Arroyo?

[fearofpopvol1]

I believe the Reds will keep 1 of the 2 through next year and 1 of the 2 will be gone. I could be wrong on that, but just a hunch.

If you could jettison 1, who would it be and why?

[reds1869]

I would get rid of Harang. Arroyo is simply the better pitcher and has been for some time.

[RedEye]

I really hope the Reds let both of them walk and/or trade them. With the depth of the rotation and the promise of the batting order, I think it is time to turn the page and invest elsewhere. For instance, I'd like to Walt use the leftovers to begin negotiations with Votto on a LTC.

But, if I had to choose, I think I'd pick Arroyo at this point. And I really thought I'd never be saying that... but Harang just seems to have lost it, no matter what certain peripherals suggest to the contrary.

[top6]

Harang. And it's not close.

That said, not sure I see the rush to get rid of either of them. The money is a sunk cost.

[VR]

Certainly keep Arroyo. Perhaps the most unappreciated starter this team has ever had.

[Homer Bailey]

Certainly keep Arroyo. Perhaps the most unappreciated starter this team has ever had.

Yep.

[Falls City Beer]

I'd jettison Arroyo. I think by year's end, Harang will have the better numbers.

[Reds1]

With Volquez, Cueto, Homer, Leake, Chapman, Lecure, Woods, Mosbey they could actually get rid of both, but I'm not sure I wouldn't want to keep one. Clearly Arroyo is the better pitcher, but the idea of losing both big salaries and building up the offense and going with the young guys is complelling. I'd say a lot of it depends on how Volquez looks. If he is locked in and back then I think the probablility of both gone is higher. We will see.

[Mario-Rijo]

My gut says they keep one of them for one more season and I suspect it will be Arroyo. He's got the cheaper option IIRC, he's far more durable and is likely gonna continue to be. He's also a vocal leader with playoff experience. Gotta like his chances.

[Degenerate39]

Why the hell would you want rid of Arroyo?

[VR]

Why the hell would you want rid of Arroyo?

the 260 innings and 3.30 ERA over the last calendar year are a little pompous, dont' you think? Who needs it?

[kaldaniels]

2 years ago I and most would say Arroyo. But now I'd choose Harang without a blink of an eye...despite him being one of my favorite Reds ever.

[RedEye]

With Volquez, Cueto, Homer, Leake, Chapman, Lecure, Woods, Mosbey they could actually get rid of both, but I'm not sure I wouldn't want to keep one. Clearly Arroyo is the better pitcher, but the idea of losing both big salaries and building up the offense and going with the young guys is complelling. I'd say a lot of it depends on how Volquez looks. If he is locked in and back then I think the probablility of both gone is higher. We will see.

Who is Mosbey? You mean Maloney? Am I missing something?

[Rojo]

Why the hell would you want rid of Arroyo?

Does anyone recall last summer? Arroyo had a 5.38 ERA the first half of 2009, only slightly lower than Harang's is now.

Arroyo's a year older and his K/9 is trending badly from 7.3 in 2008 to 5.2 in 2009 to a pathetic 4.8 this year.

I like Arroyo. He's durable and has a Kirk Rueter-like ability to get by on nothin' but let's not get carried away.

[Falls City Beer]

Harang has been the less healthy pitcher (and that hurts his standing, no doubt), but numbers-wise, Harang has been the better pitcher over the duration of their careers here.

[Ghosts of 1990]

I keep Arroyo to be the 5 guy, and I get rid of Harang two years ago.

Arroyo in a landslide.

[Spring~Fields]

I’m feeling crazy today, so.

I would like to see the young pitchers do so well and good that the Reds could move or trade Arroyo, Harang, and Cordero along with their contracts for something that helps out in return along with pay flex so that Mr. Jocketty can continue the work without a financial hindrance interfering.

I realize veteran experienced pitchers are important.

Nothing wrong with wanting the younger more cost effective to do very well though too is there? Always easier on paper and in thought though isn’t it vs. the obstacles in reality.

[nate]

I think Harang is better. He strikes out more and walks fewer. He's gotten touched for the longball and gives up more hits but I think he's a little better than Arroyo.

I don't really have any expectations for either one of them other than I don't really expect both of them to be here next year.

[Rojo]

Harang has been the less healthy pitcher (and that hurts his standing, no doubt), but numbers-wise, Harang has been the better pitcher over the duration of their careers here.

I just looked and these two are awfully close. Arroyo's ERA+ is 107 and Harang's is 103. I thought Bronson would win in durability but Harang has averaged 211 ip and Arroyo 204.

The perphs: Arroyo 1.1 hr/9 to Harang's 1.2, Harang's 2.5 bb/9 to Arroyo's 2.8, Harang's 7.5 k/9 to Arroyo's 6.1.

The only real difference is k/9 and that's trending badly for Arroyo but holding pretty steady for Harang.

[TRF]

I keep Arroyo to be the 5 guy, and I get rid of Harang two years ago.

Arroyo in a landslide.

ugh.

Harang's 2008 was derailed by bad managing, his 2009 by his appendix. throw the W-L record out for 2009, and really look at his numbers, trends during the season and you'll see a pitcher that was headed for 200+ IP with nearly 200 K's and a decent BB rate.

He has the fewest BB's of all the Reds starters, 2nd best k/9. He's been a little too hittable. Some of that is luck, some of that is on him. His ERA over his last 6 starts is 4.26, and trending down with every start.

I'm for keeping Harang through this year.

[Mario-Rijo]

I just looked and these two are awfully close. Arroyo's ERA+ is 107 and Harang's is 103. I thought Bronson would win in durability but Harang has averaged 211 ip and Arroyo 204.

The perphs: Arroyo 1.1 hr/9 to Harang's 1.2, Harang's 2.5 bb/9 to Arroyo's 2.8, Harang's 7.5 k/9 to Arroyo's 6.1.

The only real difference is k/9 and that's trending badly for Arroyo but holding pretty steady for Harang.

Arroyo has yet to miss a start as a RED so the IP average is a mirage. True Arroyo's peripherals tell a tale of decline but I think Arroyo has gone more to being a GB pitcher since Edinson showed him his change up grip (which Bronson uses for his 2 seamer). It's resulted in less gopher balls and lower ERA since. And probably contributed in some small part to his sliding K per 9.

[mth123]

Harang's arm seems all used up. I'm guessing he can be a decent number five in the mold of Livan Hernandez of the last few years, but he's no longer a solid mid-rotation guy. He's the guy who they somehow need to move (with his salary) to make room and a pay slot to bring in a TOR arm to compete throughout the season.

[bucksfan2]

I would be perfectly happy if Harang never threw another inning for the Reds. He just doesn't have much, if anything, left in the tank. In his start friday night he had trouble getting out the players he was supposed to.

To be honest I would prefer LeCure to get Harang's spot in the rotation. Its a shame that Aaron has gone down hill this fast, but its the nature of baseball.

[TheNext44]

Considering the ballpark they play in, and the defense behind them alone, it Arroyo hands down. Even if you think Harang has an edge due to his K's, it gets more than erased by his being flyball pitcher and Arroyo being a ground ball pitcher pitching in a homer friendly park.

[Rojo]

Arroyo has yet to miss a start as a RED so the IP average is a mirage.

I'll give him props for a healthy appendix.

Seriously, we're talking about the future here. K/9 is probably the best tea leaf out there. Arroyo might be the next Tommy John but the odds are against it.

[VR]

I'll give him props for a healthy appendix.

Seriously, we're talking about the future here. K/9 is probably the best tea leaf out there. Arroyo might be the next Tommy John but the odds are against it.

You'd be surprised to compare Bronson's Reds stats to Tommy Johns #'s.

[Rojo]

True Arroyo's peripherals tell a tale of decline but I think Arroyo has gone more to being a GB pitcher since Edinson showed him his change up grip (which Bronson uses for his 2 seamer). It's resulted in less gopher balls and lower ERA since. And probably contributed in some small part to his sliding K per 9.

Could be. His GB/FB jumped up in 2008 and has remained at that level since, more or less.

Still, he's gone from less-the-league-average to league-average with the jump. (He's at .73 now, the MLB average is .78)

Unfortunately they didn't keep these numbers for most of Tommy John's career -- only his last two years when he was in his mid 40's. FWIW, those last two years he was close to 2 groundballs per flyball.

Arroyo strikes me as a cagey pitcher and he might be throwing the ground balls when he needs to. But I'd say the burden of proof goes here.

[OnBaseMachine]

From John Fay - Harang impresses scouts


I was talked to two scouts about Aaron Harang – one from the National League and another from the American – both were impressed last night.

“That’s the best I’ve seen him two years,” one said.

“The only thing he should do in junk that curveball,” the other said.


http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/06/10/harang-impresses-scouts/?GID=JLaYvVkgmYZzNa8Bj28DI0YmHBBj7djumWQzjRJeGY0%3 D

[fearofpopvol1]

I would not be surprised by the end of the season to see Harang with better numbers than Arroyo.

I do not think he's "done" as a lot of people seem to think, but I do think he's too expensive. The Reds clearly cannot afford both him and Arroyo next year (nor would they have room for him). Interesting to see what happens.

[WebScorpion]

“The only thing he should do in junk that curveball,” the other said.

Yea, his curveball gets crushed everytime he throws it. I'm not sure whether the pitch is sound or not...personally, I think he's tipping the curve somehow. They act like they know it's coming. http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-merv/outfield.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)

[OnBaseMachine]

The Reds are 5-9 when Aaron Harang starts a game this season and have been outscored by their opponents 84-71. When someone other than Harang starts the Reds are 31-20 and have outscored their opponents 256 to 228. As I said in another thread, I would be on the phone with the D-Backs attempting to acquire Dan Haran but until then, I would send Harang to the bullpen and call up Travis Wood to take his spot in the rotation.

[REDblooded]

Until Harang stops challenging hitters RIGHT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE PLATE when up 1-2, 0-2, Harang is the easy choice...

[bucksfan2]

Until Harang stops challenging hitters RIGHT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE PLATE when up 1-2, 0-2, Harang is the easy choice...

Yea its almost sad to watch. He gets ahead of hitters but can't put them away. I don't know what the issues is but Harang gets a lot of foul balls when ahead in the count or with 2 strikes. He just can't get ahead of the count and make a player make an out. Its almost either a well hit ball or a strikeout.

I was at the game last night and talk about disappointment. First inning, 9 batters faced, 3 runs, 40 pitches. Regardless of weather it was going to be a short night for Aaron.

[HokieRed]

Both. It's time to commit 2011 to constructing the staff differently.

[BrooklynRedz]

Until Harang stops challenging hitters RIGHT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE PLATE when up 1-2, 0-2, Harang is the easy choice...

Harang's performance in the first inning last night had nothing to do with 'challenging' the hitter. He was simply throwing the ball and hoping against hope that the Dodgers would have an off night. He's just not able to hit his spots and until he's able to regain or rediscover his control inside the strike zone, we are just going to accept that he is what he is.

[HokieRed]

The two are booked to make about $25 million between them next year, IIRC, and if the team's to be any good at all--which I think it will be--we're going to have near replacements for the better of them (whichever that is) from inside. So do we really think we can't deploy that money better on one other pitcher? The answer is, IMHO, both.

[kaldaniels]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/joe_sheehan/06/16/pitchers.luck/index.html?eref=sihp

Sheehan says Harang's been unlucky. What say you?

[KronoRed]

Let both go, use the cash to get a top of the line guy, if any will sign with us that is.

[REDREAD]

I would let Harang go as a FA at the end of the year. I am pretty sure that the Reds have that option. I would not offer him arbitration either.. It's just too dangerous.

IMO, Arroyo is simply more skilled at pitching than Harang is. True, Arroyo will have about 3 starts per year where he doesn't have it and gives up 14 runs .. but overall, he's the better pitcher.

I would like to see the Reds extend Arroyo, let Harang walk. Trade one of the younger pitching prospects to fill a need on the team (maybe SS?) That, IMO, is the best use of resources on this team. I'd rather have Arroyo in the rotation and trade a kid, than to go with an all kiddie rotation and have extra payflex.

IMO, Harang has been on a decline for some time now. I'm not sure what it is, but it's far too risky to exercise his option (if he has one) or offer him arbitration (if no option).

[REDblooded]

Harang's performance in the first inning last night had nothing to do with 'challenging' the hitter. He was simply throwing the ball and hoping against hope that the Dodgers would have an off night. He's just not able to hit his spots and until he's able to regain or rediscover his control inside the strike zone, we are just going to accept that he is what he is.

I wish I could just sum Harang into a "last night" type of problem... It goes a bit deeper than that though...

[OnBaseMachine]

I would let them both walk and go after a top of rotation starter like Dan Haren or Cliff Lee.

[bucksfan2]

I would let them both walk and go after a top of rotation starter like Dan Haren or Cliff Lee.

If you can trade for Dan Haren yes. I would be a little against giving Lee, who will be 32 next season, a 4-5 year deal starting at $15/season.

I would send Harang to the pen now! If ineffective in the pen I wouldn't hesitate to DFA him. He just doesn't have it anymore.

[edabbs44]

The two are booked to make about $25 million between them next year, IIRC, and if the team's to be any good at all--which I think it will be--we're going to have near replacements for the better of them (whichever that is) from inside. So do we really think we can't deploy that money better on one other pitcher? The answer is, IMHO, both.

Keep Arroyo next year, let Harang walk and see what it would take to get Carmona now.

[edabbs44]

If you can trade for Dan Haren yes. I would be a little against giving Lee, who will be 32 next season, a 4-5 year deal starting at $15/season.

I would send Harang to the pen now! If ineffective in the pen I wouldn't hesitate to DFA him. He just doesn't have it anymore.

Haren turns 30 in Sept and is owed $28ishMM over the next 2 years. He's no lock. Sure I'll take him in a vacuum, but it depends on what you'd need to give up and what the financials look like.

I'd look towards Lee or Carmona as well as Haren. They each have their pros and cons.

[bucksfan2]

Haren turns 30 in Sept and is owed $28ishMM over the next 2 years. He's no lock. Sure I'll take him in a vacuum, but it depends on what you'd need to give up and what the financials look like.

I'd look towards Lee or Carmona as well as Haren. They each have their pros and cons.

I like Haren's track record better than Carmona's. I wouldn't have a problem paying $28M (its not my money) for a pitcher in his 30 and 31 years. The issue I have with Lee is he is going to get a big time contract starting at age 32. He will get paid a premium for his productive years and likely be an overpriced starter during the tail end of his contract.

Basically with Haren you would be trading salaries with either Harang or Arroyo. Not going to kill you financially (or at least I hope).

[edabbs44]

I like Haren's track record better than Carmona's. I wouldn't have a problem paying $28M (its not my money) for a pitcher in his 30 and 31 years. The issue I have with Lee is he is going to get a big time contract starting at age 32. He will get paid a premium for his productive years and likely be an overpriced starter during the tail end of his contract.

Basically with Haren you would be trading salaries with either Harang or Arroyo. Not going to kill you financially (or at least I hope).

Haren has given up a load of HRs this season Who knows, it could be the start of the slide.

I like Carmona b/c he is relatively cheap ($6MM next year, club options for $7, 9 and 12MM in next three), coming from the AL and is a groundball guy. Lee is attractive because he is only for this year and you'll get the DPs in return for him walking next year. Haren is a good pitcher and obviously would upgrade the staff right now.

[HokieRed]

Keep Arroyo next year, let Harang walk and see what it would take to get Carmona now.


Why keep Arroyo? If we bring in one of Haren, Oswalt, Carmona, who will Arroyo be 11 million better than among the following: Cueto, Volquez, Leake, Chapman? Or, to put this another way, if those 4 aren't all better than Arroyo, we're not contending anyway.
Time to move on. This pitching staff needs more than one starter and one reliever. If there hasn't been a deal to date, I suspect it's because Maloney won't bring enough to matter and Walt knows this team needs Wood for the future.

[edabbs44]

Why keep Arroyo? If we bring in one of Haren, Oswalt, Carmona, who will Arroyo be 11 million better than among the following: Cueto, Volquez, Leake, Chapman? Or, to put this another way, if those 4 aren't all better than Arroyo, we're not contending anyway.
Time to move on. This pitching staff needs more than one starter and one reliever. If there hasn't been a deal to date, I suspect it's because Maloney won't bring enough to matter and Walt knows this team needs Wood for the future.

Cueto/Volquez/Leake/Chapman all come with risk. Bring in Carmona, exercise Arroyo and deal one of the other guys for help elsewhere.

Bringing in Haren or Oswalt may force Walt's hand and he'd have to boot both Harang and Arroyo for $ reasons. Also, if Arroyo kills it down the stretch then maybe exercising is a no-brainer. Or, if he gets killed, declining is a no-brainer. But it is still way early.

This team has ramped it up significantly to this point and the future looks very good. I just don't want to see them put all their 2010 eggs in the basket of inconsistent Cueto, a guy who has been in the US for 6 months, a guy who has pitched around a dozen professional games to this point and a guy who is coming off TJ surgery. Odds are Arroyo will be better than at least one of them, if not two.