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View Full Version : Chris Buckley's list of players Reds are interested in with #12 pick



OnBaseMachine
06-02-2010, 02:42 PM
From John Fay:


Buckley said the Reds’ pick would likely come from the following group (all are college players), listed by their BA rank:

7. RHP Deck McGuire, Georgia Tech: He’s 8-4 with a 3.01 ERA. Got roughed up in the ACC tourney.

9. SS Colon: Hitting .350 with 14 homers and 55 RBI. Projects more as a second baseman.

14. CF Gary Brown, Cal State Fullerton: Hitting .438 with 13 homers, 54 RBI and 31 steals.

21. RHP Alex Wimmers, Ohio State: From Moeller. Went 9-0 with a 1.60 ERA before going out with hamstring injury. He’s healthy now.

25. 2B Kolbin Vitek, Ball State: Hitting .368 with 17 homers, 68 RBI, 15 steals.

“These are all guys we’ve scouted all year,” Buckley said. “We’re just now starting to talk to agents and putting together our board.”


http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/06/02/looking-at-the-draft-2/

BIG NO THANKS to Gary Brown. Last time I checked he had something like nine walks all season. He profiles as a Juan Pierre type of player. Pass.

Out of that group, give me Colon, McGuire, or Wimmers. I'm surprised Yasmani Grandal isn't in that group as I've seen a lot of websites linking him to the Reds,

KoryMac5
06-02-2010, 02:51 PM
Looks like the Reds are playing the wait and see who drops in the draft game. If Colon drops to 12 I think they jump all over that. If Colon is not there than the pick might be Wimmers.

Key ommission Bryce Brentz who the Reds have been linked too. Buckley might be playing possum.

GIDP
06-02-2010, 02:53 PM
I believe that as much as I believe, well something I dont believe very much.

VR
06-02-2010, 03:10 PM
Better enjoy this draft. I think it's going to be awhile before the Reds pick top 12 again.

JaxRed
06-02-2010, 03:16 PM
Of course, there's no point in posturing unless you think a player might actually make it to you in the second round. Until teams can trade picks, no need for secrecy

LoganBuck
06-02-2010, 03:33 PM
I don't believe Mike Leake was linked to the Reds until about an hour before the draft. This front office is a cloak and dagger operation, I like that.

11larkin11
06-02-2010, 03:36 PM
Watching mlb.com's videos and reading their reports, about the only one I for sure wouldn't want is Colon. I like everything about Brown except his stance. I just don't think thats gonna work in the bigs. I like McGuire a lot, but his lack of FB movement scares me a lot as well. All of these guys have something that scares me.

lollipopcurve
06-02-2010, 03:38 PM
Theme here is college. Interesting that Grandal is not on the list.

McGuire and Wimmers seem to both be in the "closest to the majors" discussion. Polished college arms with mid-rotation stuff.

Colon looks like a solid middle infielder, possibly moving to 2B with SS skills. Excellent bat handler and a leader. I like him as possible heir apparent to Phillips, down the road.

Like Colon, Brown is a Cal State Fullerton guy (like Josh Fellhauer too). In some ways, this is the most interesting player of the 5 in that he could be a leadoff hitter with good hitting skills and top-end speed. Surprisingly, he's a little guy from a big-time program who's still considered a bit "raw."

Vitek is an intriguing RH college bat. Sounds like he's something of a tweener defensively, and that possible IF-OF versatility can be a plus. Probably has the highest offensive ceiling of the 3 position players on this list.

Overall, I can't say I have strong preferences here, though hitters are always more fun to track. The Reds are clearly into being conservative with their top pick lately, and this is a continuation of that philosophy.

dougdirt
06-02-2010, 03:39 PM
The only guy there I would be happy with is Deck McGuire out of that list. The rest of the guys just have big weaknesses that worry me. This draft is full of a lot of guys that are normally #20-40 type guys and lacking a lot of guys that are #10-20 type guys.

Kc61
06-02-2010, 03:47 PM
Jocketty's pattern seems to be college players with high draft choices; younger players from international signings.

dougdirt
06-02-2010, 03:50 PM
Jocketty's pattern seems to be college players with high draft choices; younger players from international signings.

Jocketty will very likely have nothing to do with the draft. GM's tend to get the credit, but most will admit that they leave it up to their scouting director. With that said, Buckley likes up the middle college players. He has gone other ways every now and again (Mesoraco, Alonso, Hamilton), but for the most part he goes pitching or up the middle college guys.

Kc61
06-02-2010, 03:55 PM
Jocketty will very likely have nothing to do with the draft. GM's tend to get the credit, but most will admit that they leave it up to their scouting director. With that said, Buckley likes up the middle college players. He has gone other ways every now and again (Mesoraco, Alonso, Hamilton), but for the most part he goes pitching or up the middle college guys.

I'm sure Jocketty has little to do with most of the picks.

But a team's first pick must involve the GM and even, perhaps, ownership. A top twelve pick will get a meaningful contract and I just don't believe that Buckley is making that decision without significant input from Walt.

lollipopcurve
06-02-2010, 03:55 PM
Jocketty will very likely have nothing to do with the draft. GM's tend to get the credit, but most will admit that they leave it up to their scouting director. With that said, Buckley likes up the middle college players. He has gone other ways every now and again (Mesoraco, Alonso, Hamilton), but for the most part he goes pitching or up the middle college guys.

Jocketty has a say in the top pick, at the very least from the standpoint that he approves the draft budget.

dougdirt
06-02-2010, 03:57 PM
I'm sure Jocketty has little to do with most of the picks.

But a team's first pick must involve the GM and even, perhaps, ownership. A top twelve pick will get a meaningful contract and I just don't believe that Buckley is making that decision without significant input from Walt.

Walt tells him 'you have X money, make it count' and that is probably the extent of it. Jocketty puts these guys in place to do their jobs. If he didn't have faith in them to do their jobs, he wouldn't keep them around. I am sure he asks about stuff, but Walt is going to make the decision that Buckley says to make because Buckley is the guy who talks to his area scouts every day. He is the one who pours over the scouting reports on all of the guys.

Kc61
06-02-2010, 04:03 PM
Walt tells him 'you have X money, make it count' and that is probably the extent of it. Jocketty puts these guys in place to do their jobs. If he didn't have faith in them to do their jobs, he wouldn't keep them around. I am sure he asks about stuff, but Walt is going to make the decision that Buckley says to make because Buckley is the guy who talks to his area scouts every day. He is the one who pours over the scouting reports on all of the guys.

On the first pick, I would doubt that Walt simply defers. It's not an insignificant decision. My guess is Walt makes the call on the first pick, although he clearly listens hard to what Buckley says.

Beyond the first pick, doubt Walt has much to say, except on general philosophy.

fearofpopvol1
06-02-2010, 04:05 PM
I wonder if it will ultimately be Wimmers.

dougdirt
06-02-2010, 04:18 PM
On the first pick, I would doubt that Walt simply defers. It's not an insignificant decision. My guess is Walt makes the call on the first pick, although he clearly listens hard to what Buckley says.

Beyond the first pick, doubt Walt has much to say, except on general philosophy.

I am going to just strongly disagree with just about everything here.

lollipopcurve
06-02-2010, 04:19 PM
I think Buckley makes the call on the first pick, with signoff from Jocketty -- if it's a guy that's possibly going to strain the budget, Jocketty goes to ownership before giving his signoff. Jocketty doesn't impress me as the kind of GM who's going to overrule his scouting director, unless there's a red flag (having to do with signability or perhaps health).

DBFROMNVA
06-02-2010, 04:24 PM
I don't think he mentioned everyone they are interested in. I think they might grab Whitson if he gets by Toronto.

Benihana
06-02-2010, 04:28 PM
The only guy there I would be happy with is Deck McGuire out of that list. The rest of the guys just have big weaknesses that worry me. This draft is full of a lot of guys that are normally #20-40 type guys and lacking a lot of guys that are #10-20 type guys.

Agree with this. I was just about to post something citing McGuire as a sleeper pick for the Reds. I'd take him over any of the players on that list other than Colon, who I'd be content with- although, like Gordon Beckham, I like him a lot less as a 2B than as a SS.

lollipopcurve
06-02-2010, 06:17 PM
I don't believe Mike Leake was linked to the Reds until about an hour before the draft. This front office is a cloak and dagger operation, I like that.

Last year shortly before the draft, Buckley divulged these 4 names:

Alex White, Mike Minor, Tyler Matzek, Shelby Miller. Only MInor was off the board when the Reds picked. It could be they moved to Leake because of bonus demands -- I don't know -- but I think it suggests that the list is still speculative to a certain extent.

jmcclain19
06-02-2010, 06:22 PM
My neighbor for a number of years now is an MLB Asst GM. Prior to being the Asst GM, he used to be the Scouting Director for an NL team not based in my current hometown. He telecommutes until the month before draft day when he travels to the team's city and then comes home after the draft is over.

He told me flat out that every year he gets to make the call of the #1 pick and any additional first rounders they make, due to the money involved. After round #1 - he typically left it up to his scouts based off their Top 800 nationwide rank of who they liked and who was available.

His GM basically tells him every year, here is your budget - use it wisely. And he also told me he won't even tell his wife who he is picking until he calls it in to MLB on draft day. Which is both pretty standard in the industry.

And his GM is an old school type like Jocketty.

So yeah, the idea of Walt having inputs on the draft - seems pretty far fetched to me. Buckley might tell him who he is picking but the choice is Buckley's.

jmcclain19
06-02-2010, 06:25 PM
And Buckley's list this year worries me.

McGwire - a really tall pitcher who doesn't dominate despite his size. Nothing outstanding.

Colon - a really short, squat future 2B who is slow, has questionable power and questionable fielding skills. Repped by Boras and reportedly wants a ton of cash.

Vitek - a guy playing in a hyper inflated hitters ballpark against poor collegiate competition. And with no discernable position.

Brown - a leadoff & speed guy (with zero power) who has serious issues taking a walk. He is like Colon - a Boras guy who reportedly wants big bucks.

Given those choices, please let it be Wimmers.

TheNext44
06-02-2010, 06:28 PM
Buckley gets paid all year for two days of work. I would hope he has control over those two days.

Kc61
06-02-2010, 06:29 PM
So yeah, the idea of Walt having inputs on the draft - seems pretty far fetched to me. Buckley might tell him who he is picking but the choice is Buckley's.

I would doubt that this is universal practice. Remember when Alonso was drafted? Walt knew him extremely well and discussed him at length with the media. It was apparent that Walt had very substantial input into that decision.

There are probably some years when the GM is indifferent. Perhaps if the Reds had the 25th pick, I could see Walt simply deferring.

But with a high first draft choice I think the buck stops with the GM, ownership expects the GM to be on top of it, and the GM ultimately has veto power to say no if he disagrees.

GIDP
06-02-2010, 06:45 PM
I've had the impression that Buckley gets a lot of power in the draft. Always seems like hes running the show. Then again im not close and thats just my perception.

mdccclxix
06-02-2010, 06:51 PM
And Buckley's list this year worries me.

McGwire - a really tall pitcher who doesn't dominate despite his size. Nothing outstanding.

Colon - a really short, squat future 2B who is slow, has questionable power and questionable fielding skills. Repped by Boras and reportedly wants a ton of cash.

Vitek - a guy playing in a hyper inflated hitters ballpark against poor collegiate competition. And with no discernable position.

Brown - a leadoff & speed guy (with zero power) who has serious issues taking a walk. He is like Colon - a Boras guy who reportedly wants big bucks.

Given those choices, please let it be Wimmers.

I really agree with this. I looked over this list and really think it has to be a misdirection. Buckley is always coy, he's like Krivsky II, eye's darting all around. :D

Kingspoint
06-03-2010, 06:30 AM
My two cents says it's:

Georgia Tech's RHP Deck McGuire

edabbs44
06-03-2010, 09:44 AM
I can't see how Walt would have nothing to do with the first pick. I would bet that he gets involved in overall draft philosophy (organization is shallow in pitching, for example) and would probably need to sign off on the top pick, at a minimum. If Buckley wanted to take a non-once in a generation must draft first baseman, I would think that Walt would have to get involved.

bucksfan2
06-03-2010, 10:27 AM
I can't see how Walt would have nothing to do with the first pick. I would bet that he gets involved in overall draft philosophy (organization is shallow in pitching, for example) and would probably need to sign off on the top pick, at a minimum. If Buckley wanted to take a non-once in a generation must draft first baseman, I would think that Walt would have to get involved.

I think along the lines of this. IMO Jocketty may not decide who is going to be picked in the first round but the name would have to be run by him and he would have veto power. I think they would compile a list of players and Jocketty would have a chance to pull certain player off their board due to red flags, agents, and signablity issues.

JaxRed
06-03-2010, 10:54 AM
I think Bucksfan is exactly right. I bet you they even run it by Castellini as a formality.

redsmetz
06-03-2010, 11:13 AM
I would doubt that this is universal practice. Remember when Alonso was drafted? Walt knew him extremely well and discussed him at length with the media. It was apparent that Walt had very substantial input into that decision.

There are probably some years when the GM is indifferent. Perhaps if the Reds had the 25th pick, I could see Walt simply deferring.

But with a high first draft choice I think the buck stops with the GM, ownership expects the GM to be on top of it, and the GM ultimately has veto power to say no if he disagrees.

Not to quibble, but what you detail here doesn't necessarily Jocketty had "substantial input." I would suggest that it may mean he was thoroughly briefed, enough that he could speak very easily about the pick. There is a difference there. Of course, that's not to say that a GM doesn't give any input. I find that doubtful, but WJ ultimately seems to leave the final decision to Buckley.

Az. Reds Fan
06-03-2010, 11:27 AM
My two cents says it's:

Georgia Tech's RHP Deck McGuire

I would be willing to bet that McGuire would be off the board by the time the Reds pick at 12...I would guess it'll be Wimmers, if he's still around

Kc61
06-03-2010, 11:30 AM
Not to quibble, but what you detail here doesn't necessarily Jocketty had "substantial input." I would suggest that it may mean he was thoroughly briefed, enough that he could speak very easily about the pick. There is a difference there. Of course, that's not to say that a GM doesn't give any input. I find that doubtful, but WJ ultimately seems to leave the final decision to Buckley.

I recall watching Jocketty speak after the Alonso pick. He said, if I recall correctly, that he knew or had followed Alonso for many years. That he had personal knowledge of the player. Walt gave me the distinct impression that Yonder was "his guy" and that Walt was hands on in making that selection.

I'm sure there is an effort at consensus among Buckley, Jocketty, ownership, etc. But high first round draft choices are major decisions because they involve substantial bucks and they often have significant baseball impact. I just don't believe that Walt says "whatever you say, Chris" on these high choices.

As I've said before, I'm sure Walt doesn't get intimately involved with 10th round selections, Buckley obviously has a lot of power to control the draft. I just think the top pick is different.

Most importantly, given where the Reds are now, I hope they use the first pick for a college player who can contribute relatively soon. At pick 12, I don't see the Reds getting the most highly touted guy, so I'd err on somebody who can contribute in the next couple of years to build on the current team.

GIDP
06-03-2010, 01:51 PM
I'd be surprised if all this stuff hasnt already been talked about with Walt and Bob. These guys know who they are picking in the 1st round already. Everything after is just going to get a quick pass up the chain of command.

Kingspoint
06-03-2010, 02:19 PM
I would be willing to bet that McGuire would be off the board by the time the Reds pick at 12...I would guess it'll be Wimmers, if he's still around


Everything I've seen is that he's around 7, true.

But, I think he slips past that.

Once a player starts slipping, then they can slip quite a bit.

dougdirt
06-03-2010, 02:39 PM
I can't see how Walt would have nothing to do with the first pick. I would bet that he gets involved in overall draft philosophy (organization is shallow in pitching, for example) and would probably need to sign off on the top pick, at a minimum. If Buckley wanted to take a non-once in a generation must draft first baseman, I would think that Walt would have to get involved.

I doubt Jocketty has input on the draft philosophy. The scouting director was put in place (or in this case, kept in place) because he gets Jocketty's approval for his philosophy he had.

Az. Reds Fan
06-03-2010, 03:02 PM
Everything I've seen is that he's around 7, true.

But, I think he slips past that.

Once a player starts slipping, then they can slip quite a bit.

No doubt, a player can certainly slip...There's been a lot of talk of McGuire going to the D'backs at #6, if he gets past them, he could fall to #12

edabbs44
06-03-2010, 03:16 PM
I doubt Jocketty has input on the draft philosophy. The scouting director was put in place (or in this case, kept in place) because he gets Jocketty's approval for his philosophy he had.

Not sure I agree...the scouting director is in charge of assessing players, Jocketty is in charge of constructing the organization. If the organization is loaded with pitching and lacking in hitting, I would venture to guess that the GM will ensure that the scouting director is aware and look to fill in the needs. Not to say that Jocketty is shouting commands from the mountain and then closing the door, but my guess would be that the scouting director has his list of targets, then some sort of group or committee sits down and discusses pros and cons. Maybe the GM hates one guy's agent. Maybe the GM thinks the team needs pitching and wants to see a lean in that direction. Maybe the GM wants college guys because he wants dividends paid in the near term rather than the long term.

The scouts are paid to assess players and no doubt have a huge amount of input into the process. But they aren't paid to construct the overall organization. I can't see a top choice being made without the GM agreeing to it.

Kc61
06-03-2010, 03:27 PM
The scouts are paid to assess players and no doubt have a huge amount of input into the process. But they aren't paid to construct the overall organization. I can't see a top choice being made without the GM agreeing to it.

Since Walt became GM, the Reds' first picks have been college guys, Alonso and Leake. I believe this is a direct result of Walt's current view about high draft choices.

In the four years previous, three were high schoolers and one college. I believe that O'Brien and Krivsky were both far more open to high school top draft choices.

We'll see about this year. I strongly suspect we'll have a college first pick. Again reflecting Walt's philosophy.

dougdirt
06-03-2010, 03:33 PM
Since Walt became GM, the Reds' first picks have been college guys, Alonso and Leake. I believe this is a direct result of Walt's current view about high draft choices.

In the four years previous, three were high schoolers and one college. I believe that O'Brien and Krivsky were both far more open to high school top draft choices.

We'll see about this year. I strongly suspect we'll have a college first pick. Again reflecting Walt's philosophy.

Chris Buckley, even back to his days in Toronto favored college guys. Since he took over for the Reds, here is how his breakdown is for HS/College in the first three rounds:
College Players
Drew Stubbs
Sean Watson
Chris Valaika
Todd Frazier
Zack Cozart
Scott Carroll
Yonder Alonso
Zack Stewart
Mike Leake
Brad Boxberger
Donnie Joseph

High School Players
Devin Mesoraco
Kyle Lotzkar
Neftali Soto
Billy Hamilton

That is 11 to 4 in the first 3 rounds since Buckley has been here, through multiple GM's. Three of those high school players came in the same year, 2007, when the Reds had 6 picks in the first three rounds as they also nabbed Frazier, Cozart and Scott Carroll in the first three rounds.

mdccclxix
06-03-2010, 03:38 PM
Chris Buckley, even back to his days in Toronto favored college guys. Since he took over for the Reds, here is how his breakdown is for HS/College in the first three rounds:
College Players
Drew Stubbs
Sean Watson
Chris Valaika
Todd Frazier
Zack Cozart
Scott Carroll
Yonder Alonso
Zack Stewart
Mike Leake
Brad Boxberger
Donnie Joseph

High School Players
Devin Mesoraco
Kyle Lotzkar
Neftali Soto
Billy Hamilton

That is 11 to 4 in the first 3 rounds since Buckley has been here, through multiple GM's. Three of those high school players came in the same year, 2007, when the Reds had 6 picks in the first three rounds as they also nabbed Frazier, Cozart and Scott Carroll in the first three rounds.

Thanks Doug, that list really shows how well Buckley is doing in the draft, as very few of the above have yet to be a bust. I guess one could hope for bigger impact players, but it's still too early to tell, and oops, Mike Leake IS on that list, so...

OnBaseMachine
06-03-2010, 03:38 PM
From the Reds website:


First-round buzz
The Reds have been linked to a few players in mock Drafts, including that of MLB.com's Mayo, which recently had them picking outfielder Bryce Brentz out of Middle Tennessee State. If he is still around, Georgia Tech pitcher Deck McGuire is someone the club likes, as is Univ. of Texas-Arlington outfielder Michael Choice. An intriguing possibility is Ohio State right-handed pitcher Alex Wimmers, a Cincinnati native who attended Moeller High School.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100603&content_id=10751568&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

jmcclain19
06-03-2010, 04:18 PM
Chris Buckley, even back to his days in Toronto favored college guys. Since he took over for the Reds, here is how his breakdown is for HS/College in the first three rounds:
College Players
Drew Stubbs
Sean Watson
Chris Valaika
Todd Frazier
Zack Cozart
Scott Carroll
Yonder Alonso
Zack Stewart
Mike Leake
Brad Boxberger
Donnie Joseph

High School Players
Devin Mesoraco
Kyle Lotzkar
Neftali Soto
Billy Hamilton

That is 11 to 4 in the first 3 rounds since Buckley has been here, through multiple GM's. Three of those high school players came in the same year, 2007, when the Reds had 6 picks in the first three rounds as they also nabbed Frazier, Cozart and Scott Carroll in the first three rounds.

Good round up doug. As mdccclxix pointed out, outside of injuries and Watson, that's a list that has so far panned out quite well.

GIDP
06-03-2010, 04:22 PM
From the Reds website:



http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100603&content_id=10751568&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

I find it wildly interesting that Brentz name has been linked to the Reds but the Reds didnt say anything about it.

IslandRed
06-03-2010, 07:18 PM
All of these guys have something that scares me.

Yep. Even in a strong year, the no-brainers are usually off the board by #12, and this isn't a strong year. Everyone available at our slot is going to have something we can point to as a reason why he won't pan out.

Benihana
06-03-2010, 07:22 PM
Yep. Even in a strong year, the no-brainers are usually off the board by #12, and this isn't a strong year. Everyone available at our slot is going to have something we can point to as a reason why he won't pan out.

Agreed. I'd say this year only has four players who could be classified as top-notch prospects: Harper, Machado, Tallion, and Pomeranz. Everyone else has substantial warts.