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View Full Version : Bailey's shoulder ‘a little bit alarming,’ will not start Sunday



OnBaseMachine
06-11-2010, 06:09 PM
Bailey was to throw a bullpen today but was unable to get started. Bailey is to be examined tonight by Reds medical director Dr. Tim Kremchek.

“It was little bit alarming for me,” Bailey said, describing the latest feeling in his shoulder. “I threw the other day and felt great. The last couple days, there has been some soreness in places where I usually don’t get soreness. We’re going to try to evaluate and go from there.”

By “places,” Bailey said he meant soreness in different places in his shoulder.

“It was just alarming. It wasn’t nothing life-threatening,” Bailey said. “We’re gonna try to figure out what exactly is going on and the best way to approach it.”


to read more: http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/06/11/bailey-will-not-start-sunday/

fearofpopvol1
06-11-2010, 06:19 PM
I'm fully prepared for Doc Hollywood's optimistic estimate of how long until Bailey is back.

kaldaniels
06-11-2010, 06:34 PM
Funny how you can never have too much starting pitching, I'm glad we have Volquez, Chapman, et al.

pedro
06-11-2010, 06:36 PM
I'm fully prepared for Doc Hollywood's optimistic estimate of how long until Bailey is back.

And yet Bailey himself has been chomping at the bit to get back and didn't want to go on the DL in the first place. I think that tells something about the nature of sports injuries and how/why they happen, even with the best medical advice & diagnosis.

oneupper
06-11-2010, 06:37 PM
I'm glad Homer will live, hopefully he will pitch someday also.

mth123
06-11-2010, 06:46 PM
60 innng jump in 09 from 08.

Caution is always the word of the day with arms under 25.

GAC
06-11-2010, 06:50 PM
And yet Bailey himself has been chomping at the bit to get back and didn't want to go on the DL in the first place.

Amazing isn't it?

Dom Heffner
06-11-2010, 06:56 PM
60 innng jump in 09 from 08.

Caution is always the word of the day with arms under 25.

What was the pitch count increase?

An inning can be 3 pitches or 50.

mth123
06-11-2010, 07:19 PM
What was the pitch count increase?

An inning can be 3 pitches or 50.

Assuming the innings are of similar counts, 60 is too many. I don't know the pitch counts, but even when Bailey was rolling last year, he was routinely over 110 pitches per game IIRC, I've not noticed many single digit pitch innings from Bailey whether he's going well or doing poorly.

westofyou
06-11-2010, 07:20 PM
What was the pitch count increase?

An inning can be 3 pitches or 50.

True, also added the stress of the situation, runners on, high counts, trying to keep ones slot in the rotation, all that can add up to exertion that can be damaging to ones body.

mth123
06-11-2010, 07:26 PM
I hope the Reds make note of this when deciding how far to go with Leake (175 IP Max IMO) and Chapman (150 IP Max).

The Reds need to go get an arm that is going to be around in August and beyond. If the Reds are smart Leake, Chapman and now likely Bailey will be unavailable IMO.

Benihana
06-11-2010, 07:57 PM
I hope the Reds make note of this when deciding how far to go with Leake (175 IP Max IMO) and Chapman (150 IP Max).

The Reds need to go get an arm that is going to be around in August and beyond. If the Reds are smart Leake, Chapman and now likely Bailey will be unavailable IMO.

Ahem, Cliff Lee.

There is not a single top-shelf prospect in the system other than Aroldis Chapman. Keep Chapman, and trade the farm for Lee, especially if it will preserve arms like Leake for the next several years- not to mention give us a real shot in the postseason.

CrackerJack
06-11-2010, 08:13 PM
I'm glad Homer will live, hopefully he will pitch someday also.

Bailey's comment was either somewhat telling of his attitude, or just a brain fart of some sort.

Homer, I don't think anyone's concerned about your vitals, you know, they care about if you can pitch well and when that will be, k? Nothing personal, but, that's what's going on here fella.

HokieRed
06-11-2010, 09:20 PM
I hope the Reds make note of this when deciding how far to go with Leake (175 IP Max IMO) and Chapman (150 IP Max).

The Reds need to go get an arm that is going to be around in August and beyond. If the Reds are smart Leake, Chapman and now likely Bailey will be unavailable IMO.

I don't think we'll have to worry about Leake. He's going to hit the wall long before that I fear. Doesn't mean I don't like him; he's just very young. Bailey should never have been throwing those 120 pitch games and he should have been cut off at 170 last year.

kaldaniels
06-11-2010, 11:54 PM
What was the pitch count increase?

An inning can be 3 pitches or 50.

I agree...with the multitude of stats in front of us...why is pitcher "abuse" based on IP...not PP (pitches pitched :D)

Blitz Dorsey
06-12-2010, 12:37 AM
Get Chapman in the rotation!

Ghosts of 1990
06-12-2010, 01:04 AM
ughhh. One win out of Homer this year and he probably wonders why people are frustrated and want to know when he'll pitch again. Think he wins 20 games in his Reds career? Guy is so snake-bitten.

SMcGavin
06-12-2010, 02:18 AM
I hope the Reds make note of this when deciding how far to go with Leake (175 IP Max IMO) and Chapman (150 IP Max).

The Reds need to go get an arm that is going to be around in August and beyond. If the Reds are smart Leake, Chapman and now likely Bailey will be unavailable IMO.

Would be really surprised to see the Reds go out of organization for this. Matt Maloney is the innings eating horse made for this situation. Big, durable, decent. Obviously, as he was passed over for promotion last season and again this year in favor of Lecure, the Reds don't feel the same way.

mth123
06-12-2010, 03:22 AM
Would be really surprised to see the Reds go out of organization for this. Matt Maloney is the innings eating horse made for this situation. Big, durable, decent. Obviously, as he was passed over for promotion last season and again this year in favor of Lecure, the Reds don't feel the same way.

So down the stretch it would be Harang (shaky), Arroyo (up and down), Cueto (little guy who probably runs out of gas), Volquez (question mark off an injury) Maloney, Lecure and Wood (unproven, unproven, unproven), with Leake, Chapman and Bailey on the sidelines? If those guys fall in line behind a TOR staff leader it might be something, but this staff needs an addition to the front of the pecking order not another guy for the back end.

Of course, if the team falls out of the running, then give these kids a look, but contention requires more than that. I'd like to see the team put together a package for a vet that might require dealing some of this quantity for the one guy to get them over the top. I still think Maloney or Wood would be a prime ingredient in a deal like that.

PuffyPig
06-12-2010, 10:33 AM
What was the pitch count increase?

An inning can be 3 pitches or 50.

You saw Bailey pitch last year.

How many 3 pitch innings did he have?

While your comment could be theoretically correct, it's silly when you consider you've asked it of Bailey, a pitcher known more for high pitch counts per inning than low.

For the record, last year he averaged 17.7 P/I, worst among the Reds starters.

Brutus
06-12-2010, 10:46 AM
This is 2010, not 2009. Injuries don't just happen because of an increase in innings from more than 8 months ago.

The notion that 2009's increase in innings is the cause of this injury is silly.

top6
06-12-2010, 10:51 AM
This is 2010, not 2009. Injuries don't just happen because of an increase in innings from more than 8 months ago.

The notion that 2009's increase in innings is the cause of this injury is silly.

Do you have some statistical or medical study that supports that? Because everything I've ever read says just the opposite, or just consists of sports writers saying the idea is "silly" with no support.

Sea Ray
06-12-2010, 10:55 AM
Do you have some statistical or medical study that supports that? Because everything I've ever read says just the opposite, or just consists of sports writers saying the idea is "silly" with no support.

If this opinion was settled science then we wouldn't be debating it. There's no way to tell for sure. Every pitcher is different. This question can't be settled by baseballreference.com

steig
06-12-2010, 11:05 AM
With having Leake in the rotation and possibly Chapman at some point this year. I would like it if the Reds would consider going to a 6 man rotation for the last half of the year to cut down on innings for the young guys and give the old guys more days off. The Red Sox did this a couple of years ago to keep the innings down on Bucholtz and Dice K and just because they has 6 decent starters.

Brutus
06-12-2010, 11:06 AM
Do you have some statistical or medical study that supports that? Because everything I've ever read says just the opposite, or just consists of sports writers saying the idea is "silly" with no support.

The closest anyone has come to a report is Tom Verducci posting ERA numbers from one year to the next based on innings' jumps - hardly a scientific report.

Reports have been done, but absolutely none that I've seen that can capture any real correlation by way of risk of injury.

Throwing a baseball is unnatural. There's no doubt that pitching will always create injuries. But the suggestion that an injury would occur many, many months later because of a sudden increase in innings (especially after a 6-month offseason) seems far-fetched.

HokieRed
06-12-2010, 11:08 AM
Is there any new information or clarification regarding Bailey's injury or the time he's going to be out?

top6
06-12-2010, 12:48 PM
If this opinion was settled science then we wouldn't be debating it. There's no way to tell for sure. Every pitcher is different. This question can't be settled by baseballreference.com

Keep in mind, the post I was responding to said it was "silly" that the cause of a specific injury was an increase in innings the year before, so it pretty much rejected out of hand the notion that an increase in innings one year could ever be the cause of an injury the next year. I think it's pretty clear it does at least increase the risk of an injury the next year, but to what extent is unclear (and it is also unclear if there is any way to identify those pitchers who will be susceptible to that increased risk).

RedsManRick
06-12-2010, 01:01 PM
Many people believe that abuse of an arm doesn't go away (completely) with time. Top6 has it right, as far as I'm concerned. Giving a young pitcher a significantly increased workload, be it in terms of innings or pitches, isn't likely a good thing for the health of the guy's shoulder/arm. There's little doubt that Bailey has been pushed a bit in that regard.

As to a specific cause? Who knows. But given the very real possibility that shoulder injuries in particular may be the result of accumulated damage in small doses, it seems completely reasonable to cite possible contributing factors.

mth123
06-12-2010, 01:11 PM
Many people believe that abuse of an arm doesn't go away (completely) with time. Top6 has it right, as far as I'm concerned. Giving a young pitcher a significantly increased workload, be it in terms of innings or pitches, isn't likely a good thing for the health of the guy's shoulder/arm. There's little doubt that Bailey has been pushed a bit in that regard.

As to a specific cause? Who knows. But given the very real possibility that shoulder injuries in particular may be the result of accumulated damage in small doses, it seems completely reasonable to cite possible contributing factors.

Agreed. The thing I can't get past is that this is a theory that doesn't need to be proven. If there is any evidence that it might be true is reason enough for caution. Bailey didn't need to take such a giant leap last year as far as workload goes. Maybe he would get hurt anyway, but its one less contributing factor. Why take risks? The 30 inning per year increase thing will probably never be proven definitvely, but if I'm running a team trying to build for the future around my young arms, you can bet I'd stick to its guidelines anyway.

Brutus
06-12-2010, 01:17 PM
Many people believe that abuse of an arm doesn't go away (completely) with time. Top6 has it right, as far as I'm concerned. Giving a young pitcher a significantly increased workload, be it in terms of innings or pitches, isn't likely a good thing for the health of the guy's shoulder/arm. There's little doubt that Bailey has been pushed a bit in that regard.

As to a specific cause? Who knows. But given the very real possibility that shoulder injuries in particular may be the result of accumulated damage in small doses, it seems completely reasonable to cite possible contributing factors.

That "many people believe" it doesn't make it so.

I think the bigger picture is being missed. Long term damage can be done to an arm for heavy workload, but not likely from a heavier workload. That's a key difference. Pitching a lot could hurt an arm over time. But pitching more innings from one season to the next doesn't matter a lick.

top6
06-12-2010, 01:30 PM
That "many people believe" it doesn't make it so.

I think the bigger picture is being missed. Long term damage can be done to an arm for heavy workload, but not likely from a heavier workload. That's a key difference. Pitching a lot could hurt an arm over time. But pitching more innings from one season to the next doesn't matter a lick.

I mean, even saying "many people believe" is actually providing more support for an argument than just asserting things with no basis.

Brutus
06-12-2010, 02:25 PM
I mean, even saying "many people believe" is actually providing more support for an argument than just asserting things with no basis.

Show many a report - any report - which scientifically supports what you're trying to suggest. There really haven't been that I'm aware of.

There are a lot of things that people believe. So many myths, wives' tales and urban legends that people believe but have no basis in reality. Doesn't mean anything that people may believe it. It does mean something that there's been no evidence of it.

RedsManRick
06-12-2010, 03:54 PM
That "many people believe" it doesn't make it so.

I think the bigger picture is being missed. Long term damage can be done to an arm for heavy workload, but not likely from a heavier workload. That's a key difference. Pitching a lot could hurt an arm over time. But pitching more innings from one season to the next doesn't matter a lick.

I never said it did. But you want to assert with certainty that it did not -- good luck proving that negative.

More to the point. Have you ever gone a few weeks without working out and then pushed it a bit? That amount of activity might not have normally been too rough, but I bet you found yourself extra sore afterwards that time.

Do I know that single season increases in workload matter? Nope. But it sure does seem silly to discount the possibility out of hand. An absence of proof is not proof of an absence.

Brutus
06-12-2010, 05:30 PM
I never said it did. But you want to assert with certainty that it did not -- good luck proving that negative.

More to the point. Have you ever gone a few weeks without working out and then pushed it a bit? That amount of activity might not have normally been too rough, but I bet you found yourself extra sore afterwards that time.

Do I know that single season increases in workload matter? Nope. But it sure does seem silly to discount the possibility out of hand. An absence of proof is not proof of an absence.

But what you describe in that example entails 4-5 months of rest and then slowly working back into a rhythm again. It's not 110 innings, cold turkey then 150 innings. It doesn't work like that.

We have absolutely no evidence that this is even a factor. It's much more solid a position to claim something doesn't exist in absence of any evidence showing that it does than to say something does exist with no evidence it does.

TheNext44
06-12-2010, 05:48 PM
Homer's workload has not fallen into any "danger zone", except for the Verducci theory, which has been so far been more inaccurate than accurate.

Who knows why he hurt himself, but his workload to this point has not been enough to suggest that it is because of being over pitched.

kaldaniels
06-12-2010, 06:12 PM
Has anyone done a study of how the Verducci effect increases the ego of the author of said effect? Not that it's total baloney, but give me some science to back it please.

Redsfan320
06-12-2010, 06:29 PM
Here's (http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/06/12/bailey-to-shut-it-down-for-now/) an update.


Right-hander Homer Bailey will refrain indefinitely from throwing, Reds head trainer Paul Lessard said today. Bailey will do exercises, stretching and other rehab work in trying to rebuild strength in his right (throwing) shoulder, Lessard said.

There is no timetable on when Bailey will throw again, Lessard said. Bailey has been on the disabled list since May 24 with shoulder inflammation.

“In a nutshell, his arm’s not strong enough to pitch at this level yet,” Lessard said. “If he did he’d probably hurt himself. Because it’s not strong, he’s putting himself at risk for injuring something else, never mind increasing inflammation.”

Not sounding good at all.

320

Sea Ray
06-12-2010, 07:22 PM
Keep in mind, the post I was responding to said it was "silly" that the cause of a specific injury was an increase in innings the year before, so it pretty much rejected out of hand the notion that an increase in innings one year could ever be the cause of an injury the next year. I think it's pretty clear it does at least increase the risk of an injury the next year, but to what extent is unclear (and it is also unclear if there is any way to identify those pitchers who will be susceptible to that increased risk).


And that's his opinion. There's no stats he can post that'll "prove" an opinion. If you want to throw out names of pitchers who were ruined by the Verducci effect have at it.

Sea Ray
06-12-2010, 07:24 PM
I never said it did. But you want to assert with certainty that it did not -- good luck proving that negative.




Why does he have to "prove" anything? It's just his opinion.

Sea Ray
06-12-2010, 07:27 PM
Here's (http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/06/12/bailey-to-shut-it-down-for-now/) an update.



Not sounding good at all.

320


That's what they should have done all along. Homer rushed the whole process

OnBaseMachine
06-13-2010, 06:10 PM
Update from John Fay's blog:


Updated 3:03 p.m. – GM Walt Jocketty said today that Homer Bailey probably won’t throw again for about a week. Bailey has been shut down after having a setback with inflammation in his right shoulder.

“We’ll probably keep him from throwing for maybe a week,” Jocketty said. “Then it might take two of three weeks before he’s ready to pitch for us. There’s really no timetable.”


http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/06/13/bailey-on-decision-to-shut-down/

Screwball
06-13-2010, 06:18 PM
More LeCure. He's likely been more effective than a young Bailey would've been.

Homer Bailey
06-13-2010, 11:09 PM
LeCure has basically a 1/1 K/BB ratio. The guy is a ticking time bomb. The longer he is in the rotation, the more likely it is that he is going to get rocked. He's been far from effective. His ERA is a mirage.

Mario-Rijo
06-14-2010, 05:58 AM
LeCure has basically a 1/1 K/BB ratio. The guy is a ticking time bomb. The longer he is in the rotation, the more likely it is that he is going to get rocked. He's been far from effective. His ERA is a mirage.

I think you are right that he is a bit of a ticking timebomb just because his secondary stuff isn't real exceptional and eventually he will have to find another way to beat folks. But his strength (his fastball command) has really kept him in games and will continue to keep him from being "horrible" as long as he hits his spots. I feel more comfortable with him taking the ball than Homer at this juncture. I do think his future is in the pen however where you can match his strengths up against certain guys.

oneupper
06-14-2010, 08:37 AM
Sam LeCure = Justin Germano.

Hopefully he can get as lucky as Germano was for a while with the Padres.

edabbs44
06-14-2010, 08:44 AM
If LeCure can give us a few good starts until the deadline, that would be fantastic.

mbgrayson
06-14-2010, 07:30 PM
Today on the Baseball Prospectus website, Will Carroll had a section about Homer. If you have a BP subscription, it is HERE (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=11188).

Here is a 'fair use' snippet:

Homer Bailey (strained shoulder)
I told you something didn't look right about Bailey's arm..... Just watching him standing on the mound and gritting his teeth was one thing, but it was that odd way he shook his arm—back and forth, then twisting. ....It's possible Bailey can rehab back to the Reds rotation, but this one doesn't look good...

Redsfan320
06-14-2010, 09:02 PM
nm

320

edabbs44
06-14-2010, 09:42 PM
I'm not sure but as it's pay content, you should probably take down even the snippet. I'm not sure though, but better safe than sorry! :)

320

I don't have a subscription and was able to see that.

Redsfan320
06-14-2010, 11:17 PM
^^^
I see. Just saw
If you have a BP subscription, in his post and assumed the entire article was part of it. My bad.

320

Ron Madden
06-15-2010, 02:42 AM
If there is something major wrong in Homer's shoulder I hope he doesn't try to be too macho about it and has it treated properly.

OnBaseMachine
06-16-2010, 06:27 PM
From Mark Sheldon:


*I talked to Homer Bailey, who is pretty mellow these days despite enduring one of the things he loathes the most -- inactivity. Bailey, who has been on the DL since May 24 with right shoulder inflammation -- was originally pushing hard to get back but has since realized it's not in his long-term best interests.

"You can mope and be angry about it or just be patient and do everything right," Bailey said. "I'm trying to have the best attitude I can and get everything done right."


http://marksheldon.mlblogs.com/archives/2010/06/reds_lineup_vs_dodgers.html