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texasdave
06-13-2010, 03:57 AM
It was encouraging to read that Aroldis Chapman was using more of his off-speed pitches tonight. The consensus is that he still has a long way to go in his development. If that is the case he is going to be a monster. But a more pertinent question should be asked. Is he is ready to be brought up or not?

Here are the numbers from his last five starts. Judge for yourself.


IP H R ER HR BB K
5.2 3 0 0 0 3 7
5.0 3 0 0 0 1 7
7.0 4 2 2 0 3 5
2.0 6 7 7 1 6 1
5.0 4 1 1 0 2 9

24.2 20 10 10 1 15 29

22.2 14 3 3 0 9 28

Four of the five starts I would consider outstanding. One clunker in there to be sure.

There are two total lines at the bottom. The first is all five starts and the second is without the clunker.

The first total line works out to an ERA of 3.65. Even with the bad start thrown in the numbers are solid. Less than a hit per inning pitched and a 2:1 ratio of strikeouts to walks.


The second total line works out to a microscopic ERA of 1.19. All of the peripherals are outstanding.

Only one ball has left the yard in his last 24 2/3 innings.

His bad start was really, really bad no doubt. But don't the four really, really good starts make up for that? He could go a little deeper into games but I would take 5 or 6 innings of one run ball any day and all day.

His Bill James Game Scores would work out to be 67,67,63,11,62 respectively.

I am sure he has more developing to do. But, honestly, the pitcher that comes to the majors fully developed is the rare exception rather than the rule.

I think he is on the cusp. If one of the starting five falters much longer, Chapman goes into the rotation IMO.

dougdirt
06-13-2010, 12:45 PM
Given that two starts ago he walked 6 and struck out just 1 tells me all I need to know about him being ready to be called up.... he isn't.

Benihana
06-13-2010, 12:51 PM
I believe Volquez will be LeCure/Bailey's replacement in the rotation with LeCure going to the 'pen, and Chapman should be Leake's replacement, once it is time to shut Leake down (sometime in August).

Don't change Chapman's development schedule based off of what's going on in the big leagues. If we need another replacement due to injury, it should be Maloney's turn.

NeilHamburger
06-13-2010, 01:00 PM
I think Volquez is Massett's replacement as the 8th inning guy right after the All Star break starting with the Rockies series. I think Leake/LeCure split time starting in August, and I think a trade is made for a starter (Lilly, Lee etc...) to fill out the rotation.

reds44
06-13-2010, 01:42 PM
I believe Volquez will be LeCure/Bailey's replacement in the rotation with LeCure going to the 'pen, and Chapman should be Leake's replacement, once it is time to shut Leake down (sometime in August).

Don't change Chapman's development schedule based off of what's going on in the big leagues. If we need another replacement due to injury, it should be Maloney's turn.
Like it or not, there is 0% chance Leake gets shutdown this year if the Reds are in the race.

dougdirt
06-13-2010, 01:43 PM
Like it or not, there is 0% chance Leake gets shutdown this year if the Reds are in the race.

Everything the Reds have said up to this point suggests otherwise.

reds44
06-13-2010, 01:52 PM
Everything the Reds have said up to this point suggests otherwise.
I'd be willing to bet everything I own that it doesn't happen.

mth123
06-13-2010, 03:02 PM
I believe Volquez will be LeCure/Bailey's replacement in the rotation with LeCure going to the 'pen, and Chapman should be Leake's replacement, once it is time to shut Leake down (sometime in August).

Don't change Chapman's development schedule based off of what's going on in the big leagues. If we need another replacement due to injury, it should be Maloney's turn.

Problem with this plan is that Chapman likely needs shut down before Leake does. Chapman's IP last year was 119 and that is his seasonal high. Anything must past 150 IP for him is too many IMO. Leake, OTOH, probably can go to 175.

I don't trust so many spots to unproven kids (that include Bailey and Cueto). This team needs to bring somebody in.

Benihana
06-13-2010, 03:13 PM
Problem with this plan is that Chapman likely needs shut down before Leake does. Chapman's IP last year was 119 and that is his seasonal high. Anything must past 150 IP for him is too many IMO. Leake, OTOH, probably can go to 175.

I don't trust so many spots to unproven kids (that include Bailey and Cueto). This team needs to bring somebody in.

Agree completely that they need to bring someone in as the first item of business. Personally, I'm hoping for Lee, Haren, Peavy or Webb (likely in that order).

Kc61
06-13-2010, 03:19 PM
After the All Star break, three new pitchers could be on the roster. Volquez, Chapman, and Bray.

If the Reds acquire another pitcher, that's four new pitchers.

I don't know who exactly would be replaced. Harang could go in a trade. Del Rosario, Ondrusek, Herrera could go down. LeCure could go down, although he is pitching quite well. Leake could be shut down, but I doubt it. My guess is Leake will just get additional rest and throw fewer innings.

I'm pretty confident that the Reds will have new pitchers after the break. I think it's very unclear who will depart.

11larkin11
06-13-2010, 04:22 PM
If we're shutting down Leake, I don't see why he can't go to the DL in July and part of August, so he can pitch down the home stretch at the end of August and in September, and hopefully October.

dougdirt
06-13-2010, 04:35 PM
If we're shutting down Leake, I don't see why he can't go to the DL in July and part of August, so he can pitch down the home stretch at the end of August and in September, and hopefully October.

Because you can't just DL a guy because you want to. There has to be an actual reason.

TheNext44
06-13-2010, 04:48 PM
I'd be willing to bet everything I own that it doesn't happen.

What color is your couch? I want to make sure it goes with the rest of my living room before taking that bet. ;)

fearofpopvol1
06-13-2010, 04:51 PM
Because you can't just DL a guy because you want to. There has to be an actual reason.

Phantom DL trip.

dougdirt
06-13-2010, 04:53 PM
Phantom DL trip.

Unless there is something remotely close to it, it won't happen. The players union will throw a fit over it (see the Mets and their current situation).

texasdave
06-13-2010, 04:54 PM
Given that two starts ago he walked 6 and struck out just 1 tells me all I need to know about him being ready to be called up.... he isn't.

Because pitchers never have a bad outing, right?

dougdirt
06-13-2010, 04:57 PM
Because pitchers never have a bad outing, right?

Sure they do. But his control, as I have seen it almost all season (I haven't seen 4 of his starts) has been poor. He struggles to hit the catchers target a lot. When a guy walks 6 batters in 2 innings, he isn't ready for the majors when his control has already been pretty questionable.

GOYA
06-13-2010, 04:58 PM
Chapman is not ready to start a ML game.

NeilHamburger
06-13-2010, 04:59 PM
Honestly, this teams starting pitching hasn't looked so hot these past two weeks. On this homestand they have all of 2 quality starts in 7 games. I think some fairly significant moves need to be made.

Really, the only reason the Reds aren't losing ground despite going 6-8 in their last 14 is because the Cards have played so bad. Well, I wouldn't count on the Cards continuing to play this poorly. In my opinion the Reds need one starter (Lilly, Lee) and at least one reliever, plus Volquez returning to stay close.

I really don't think Chapman will be that helpful this year. Maybe next year, but not now.

mth123
06-13-2010, 07:02 PM
Honestly, this teams starting pitching hasn't looked so hot these past two weeks. On this homestand they have all of 2 quality starts in 7 games. I think some fairly significant moves need to be made.

Really, the only reason the Reds aren't losing ground despite going 6-8 in their last 14 is because the Cards have played so bad. Well, I wouldn't count on the Cards continuing to play this poorly. In my opinion the Reds need one starter (Lilly, Lee) and at least one reliever, plus Volquez returning to stay close.

I really don't think Chapman will be that helpful this year. Maybe next year, but not now.

Exactly. Post more often.

fearofpopvol1
06-13-2010, 08:21 PM
Unless there is something remotely close to it, it won't happen. The players union will throw a fit over it (see the Mets and their current situation).

I don't know. It may be tougher in Leake's situation if he is pitching well and goes on a phantom DL trip, but pitchers get put on the phantom DL all the time. See Mike Linconl and even a couple years ago, Jared Burton (the same years he was drafted in the Rule 5 draft).

kfm
06-13-2010, 09:17 PM
Sure they do. But his control, as I have seen it almost all season (I haven't seen 4 of his starts) has been poor. He struggles to hit the catchers target a lot. When a guy walks 6 batters in 2 innings, he isn't ready for the majors when his control has already been pretty questionable.

Having seen him in person only once, this is exactly what I saw from him. I saw a guy with dominant stuff, but not dominant location. I saw probably his most efficient start here in Columbus when he worked 7 innings. His pitches were up a lot, change up was up fastball was up. He is wild in and out of the strikezone. I had a really good angle to watch where the catcher set up and where he had to move his glove to catch it. I am not saying that he did not throw any pitches where he wanted to throw them, but he missed his spots more than he hit them. I just don't think he is not ready right now. That is hard to understand if you are only looking at his numbers, but when you see him you realize if location matters he is not ready. Having said that, he could be very good with just league average control. If he really masters his control, he will be filthy.

bubbachunk
06-13-2010, 11:02 PM
Not at all, he needs better control and to be more pitch efficient. I understand he is on pitch counts and all but he needs to make it into the 6th more consistently along with stretching games more often.

marcshoe
06-14-2010, 12:01 AM
If Volquez continues coming along quickly, that will allow the Reds to be more patient with Chapman. I wouldn't complain if they held him off until next year, hoping his command comes along and he comes up ready to dominate.

gedred69
06-14-2010, 12:34 AM
I don't know. It may be tougher in Leake's situation if he is pitching well and goes on a phantom DL trip, but pitchers get put on the phantom DL all the time. See Mike Linconl and even a couple years ago, Jared Burton (the same years he was drafted in the Rule 5 draft).

Wily Mo had a phantom trip to the DL also. (Of course he turned out to be a phantom himself). What absolute larceny that trade was, Arroyo for Wily Mo!! Is he even in baseball anymore?

texasdave
06-14-2010, 01:09 AM
Having seen him in person only once, this is exactly what I saw from him. I saw a guy with dominant stuff, but not dominant location. I saw probably his most efficient start here in Columbus when he worked 7 innings. His pitches were up a lot, change up was up fastball was up. He is wild in and out of the strikezone. I had a really good angle to watch where the catcher set up and where he had to move his glove to catch it. I am not saying that he did not throw any pitches where he wanted to throw them, but he missed his spots more than he hit them. I just don't think he is not ready right now. That is hard to understand if you are only looking at his numbers, but when you see him you realize if location matters he is not ready. Having said that, he could be very good with just league average control. If he really masters his control, he will be filthy.

In the end all that ever really matters are the numbers up on the scoreboard. Two points and then I am done here:1) Is it impossible to improve once a pitcher reaches the major? He can't improve his control at the major league level? 2) This team is so seldom in contention that it would seem that if Chapman is better than one of the five starters in the Reds' rotation, then he has to be up here. If they weren't in position to contend then let him stay at AAA. As has been stated often, teams like Cincinnati don't pick the year, the year picks them.

dougdirt
06-14-2010, 01:39 AM
In the end all that ever really matters are the numbers up on the scoreboard. Two points and then I am done here:1) Is it impossible to improve once a pitcher reaches the major? He can't improve his control at the major league level? 2) This team is so seldom in contention that it would seem that if Chapman is better than one of the five starters in the Reds' rotation, then he has to be up here. If they weren't in position to contend then let him stay at AAA. As has been stated often, teams like Cincinnati don't pick the year, the year picks them.

The issue is the exact same game in the minors is going to produce very different numbers on the scoreboard in the majors when you can't hit your spots at all. Major League hitters aren't going to expand and chase nearly as often.

And of course he can improve his control at the MLB level. The question is, can he do so at this point without hurting this team? If he goes out and walks 6 guys in 2 innings in the majors, its absolutely going to crush this team for a week trying to recover. I feel that would be a lot more likely than him coming up and making it 7 innings in a single game right now.

OnBaseMachine
06-14-2010, 06:28 PM
Weird stat on Chapman. I was looking his stats up on minorleaguesplits.com and came across this stat:

Home:

19 IP, 14 H, 16 BB, 15 K, 5.66 FIP (not a big fan of FIP but that's all they have on mls.com)

Away:

42 IP, 42 H, 20 BB, 55 K, 3.09 FIP

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=547973

Yeah, it's a small sample size but I found it interesting.

GOYA
06-14-2010, 07:11 PM
Now here's a difference:


Day/Night ERA G IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG
Day Games 1.17 3 15.1 10 3 2 1 10 16 0.81 .185
Night Games 5.28 9 44.1 46 28 26 4 26 54 0.94 .274

Probably doesn't mean a thing.

11larkin11
06-14-2010, 07:29 PM
Now here's a difference:


Day/Night ERA G IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG
Day Games 1.17 3 15.1 10 3 2 1 10 16 0.81 .185
Night Games 5.28 9 44.1 46 28 26 4 26 54 0.94 .274

Probably doesn't mean a thing.

Solution: Bring Chapman up to pitch day games when Bronson is scheduled.

OnBaseMachine
06-21-2010, 03:27 PM
Article from John Hickey of AOL Fanhouse:


"I think Chapman could pitch here right now if we needed him to," Jocketty said. "Our starting pitching has been good, so we haven't had a great need for another starter. It's given us time to let him get his feet wet at Triple-A."



"He still has a few issues with his command," manager Dusty Baker said. "He's dealing with that right now."

Still, when Chapman is ready -- and the wait may not be that long -- he'll be up. It doesn't figure to be another Strasburg scenario, but Chapman's long-term impact on the Reds could mirror Strasburg's on the Nationals.

"We took a risk on a guy we feel will have a very high upside," Jocketty said. "I think you'll see him here sooner rather than later."

http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/06/18/reds-chapman-nearing-call-to-majors/

fearofpopvol1
06-21-2010, 06:16 PM
I'd personally like to see Chapman down there for the whole year, but that's not likely. I am hoping he stays in Louisville to at least August.

mdccclxix
06-21-2010, 07:02 PM
I'd personally like to see Chapman down there for the whole year, but that's not likely. I am hoping he stays in Louisville to at least August.

I'd say there's a good chance of August seeing Chapman in AAA, for sure. But his walk rates won't concern the Reds too much, his stuff is just that good. So, he'll be up in September for a few starts and perhaps appearing out of the pen. That's my best guess.

I'm sticking with my Ubaldo Jimenez comp for Chapman. He walked 5 batters per 9 in 2006 and 2007 in AA and AAA. He got the call for 15 starts in 2007 and never looked back. His ERA stayed around 4.50 while he learned the ropes in those first 2 years in Colorado. If Chapman is similar to this, heck, he may not even start next year in Cincinnati, but he'll likely come up before the half way point.

GOYA
06-21-2010, 07:19 PM
I'd say there's a good chance of August seeing Chapman in AAA, for sure. But his walk rates won't concern the Reds too much, his stuff is just that good.

Chapman's "stuff" doesn't matter jack unless he can throw strikes. There still seem to be many people that think Chapman is close to MLB ready and Jocketty doesn't seem to be helping people see that he needs a lot of work to get to the bigs. Give him a year, at least.

mdccclxix
06-21-2010, 07:55 PM
You can walk 5 per 9 and be moderately successful, if you have the stuff. So it does matter jack. I don't think Chapman will see much time this year unless he does gain better control, fwiw, but I won't be surprised if he's a September call up. It's only 2.5 months away, so I'd say that's pretty close to being ready.

dougdirt
06-21-2010, 07:59 PM
You can walk 5 per 9 and be moderately successful, if you have the stuff. So it does matter jack. I don't think Chapman will see much time this year unless he does gain better control, fwiw, but I won't be surprised if he's a September call up. It's only 2.5 months away, so I'd say that's pretty close to being ready.

There is a difference between being ready and getting the call.

mdccclxix
06-21-2010, 08:08 PM
I think Jay Bruce's strike out issue in MiLB is a reasonable comp for Chapman's control issue.

What will Chapman learn from mowing down inferior batters that he can't learn in MLB? If it's a control issue, he'll just have to continue to work at it - and with time it will, or won't, get better. All the other skills are in place, though.

He's a MLB pitcher right now in terms of body type and stuff. Much like Bruce was an MLB player in terms of body type and raw skills. I think if the Reds brought up Chapman now, for over half a full season, that would be making the same mistake as bringing up Bruce in May 2008. He'd likely have a lot of K's and a lot of mental mistakes.

My point is that in September he'll likely need to be brought up to start sharpening his game. Then, when he's brought up next year, whenever that is, hopefully he's ready to stay.

klw
06-22-2010, 01:30 PM
I view Chapman as comparable to Hanley Ramirez who was acknowledged as a top prospect inthe mnors but his numbers did not match how he did once he got to the majors. Could be that he is not feeling challenged and focused enough to maintain command but will break out once in the majors.

GOYA
06-22-2010, 01:54 PM
Could be that he is not feeling challenged and focused enough to maintain command but will break out once in the majors.

Chapman came to the Reds with scouting of being raw and needing development. His performance has confirmed this. Why do so many people have trouble believing it?

dougdirt
06-22-2010, 02:01 PM
Chapman came to the Reds with scouting of being raw and needing development. His performance has confirmed this. Why do so many people have trouble believing it?

Because they don't want to believe it. I know that I have had multiple arguments since the start of the year about how poor his control is.