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Kc61
06-14-2010, 11:38 AM
I see big changes ahead on this staff. Statistically, no question that the pitching has been the sore spot this year.

Bullpen has really struggled.

Of the original five starters, four of them (all but Leake) have ERAs at or above 4.50.

On top of all this, Harang and Arroyo are free agents after the season.

As we go forward, the rotation will likely be Volquez, Chapman, Cueto, and Leake with, hopefully IMO, a good veteran starter rounding it out. Bailey, if healthy, will also get a chance.

The bullpen needs new blood. I think Herrera and Del Rosario may be the next to go to AAA. Bray should be back. Some new acquisition maybe. Burton hasn't found it yet at AAA. Maybe Donnie Joseph next year, he seems like a guy who should move quickly to the majors. Ondrusek threw well this weekend, maybe he gets more of a shot.

How do you see the pitching staff evolving?

Benihana
06-14-2010, 12:07 PM
The way I see it, Leake and Cueto are the only two sure things for next year's rotation.

Between Bailey, Volquez, and Chapman, they will account for two spots- but no more than that IMO due to health/effectiveness/development concerns. I would not rely on the three of them for more than two spots on the staff.

That leaves one spot for a veteran arm. Hopefully the Reds go out and acquire a Haren or a Webb (and re-sign him if he is effective.) If not, they should pick up either Arroyo or Harang's option- most likely Arroyo's given their respective effectiveness.

That leaves:

1. Veteran (Haren, Webb, Arroyo, etc.)
2. Leake
3. Cueto
4. Volquez/Bailey/Chapman
5. Volquez/Bailey/Chapman

Whoever loses the Volquez/Bailey/Chapman derby could pitch out of the pen (if healthy) and would be the first fill-in for the rotation when needed. Next in line would be one of Wood/Maloney/LeCure, similar to this year. I would imagine at least one of Wood/Maloney/LeCure gets traded for help elsewhere in the next few months.

Kc61
06-14-2010, 12:08 PM
The way I see it, Leake and Cueto are the only two sure things for next year's rotation.

Between Bailey, Volquez, and Chapman, they will account for two spots- but no more than that IMO due to health/effectiveness/development concerns. I would not rely on the three of them for more than two spots on the staff.

That leaves one spot for a veteran arm. Hopefully the Reds go out and acquire a Haren or a Webb (and re-sign him if he is effective.) If not, they should pick up either Arroyo or Harang's option- most likely Arroyo's given their respective effectiveness.

That leaves:

1. Veteran (Haren, Webb, Arroyo, etc.)
2. Leake
3. Cueto
4. Volquez/Bailey/Chapman
5. Volquez/Bailey/Chapman

Whoever loses the Volquez/Bailey/Chapman derby could pitch out of the pen (if healthy) and would be the first fill-in for the rotation when needed. Next in line would be one of Wood/Maloney/LeCure, similar to this year. I would imagine at least one of Wood/Maloney/LeCure gets traded for help elsewhere in the next few months.

Gee, you don't think Volquez is a lock to be in next year's rotation? Are you discounting him because of health concerns? Absent further injury, I think he is a sure thing.

Benihana
06-14-2010, 12:09 PM
Are you discounting him because of health concerns?

Yes.

I hope he is fully healthy, but you look around at guys like Dustin McGowan and Jeremy Bonderman, and you realize that it is far from a sure thing. Same goes for Bailey (although he also carries certain effectiveness concerns.)

OnBaseMachine
06-14-2010, 12:25 PM
I would let Arroyo and Harang walk and use that money to acquire an ace, someone like a Cliff Lee or Dan Haren. Edinson Volquez, Mike Leake, Johnny Cueto, and Aroldis Chapman would fill out the rest of the rotation with maybe Homer Bailey going to the bullpen.

When discussing the 2011 bullpen, don't forget about Jose Arredondo. As a 24 year old rookie with the Angels in 2008, Arredondo posted a 1.62 ERA in 61 innings with only 42 hits allowed and a 22 BB/55 K ratio. He struggled in 2009 as he battled elbow problems and eventually underwent Tommy John surgery after being released by the Angels and signed by the Reds. I thought signing Arredondo was an excellent under the radar move by Jocketty. If healthy, he's got a chance to really help the Reds bullpen next season and beyond.

Another guy to keep an eye on is LHP Donnie Joseph. He's been pitching like Billy Wagner in the minors this season and should be ready to step into the majors next season, and maybe even late this season.

I think the pitching staff for next year and beyond looks very promising, especially if the Reds can acquire a vet to put at the top of the rotation.

reds1869
06-14-2010, 12:32 PM
When discussing the 2011 bullpen, don't forget about Jose Arredondo. As a 24 year old rookie with the Angels in 2008, Arredondo posted a 1.62 ERA in 61 innings with only 42 hits allowed and a 22 BB/55 K ratio. He struggled in 2009 as he battled elbow problems and eventually underwent Tommy John surgery after being released by the Angels and signed by the Reds. I thought signing Arredondo was an excellent under the radar move by Jocketty. If healthy, he's got a chance to really help the Reds bullpen next season and beyond.


Arredondo has the potential to be the "new" (and right-handed) Arthur Rhodes. A great 8th inning shut down man and potential closer in waiting.

Benihana
06-14-2010, 12:45 PM
I would let Arroyo and Harang walk and use that money to acquire an ace, someone like a Cliff Lee or Dan Haren.

I agree, but it has most likely got to come through trade. They are not going to outbid the Yankees on Cliff Lee after this season, so you can forget that. Haren or maybe even Webb is a possibility, but you have to consider picking up Harang or Arroyo's option as a fallback plan in case they can't acquire (or pay) those guys.


When discussing the 2011 bullpen, don't forget about Jose Arredondo. As a 24 year old rookie with the Angels in 2008, Arredondo posted a 1.62 ERA in 61 innings with only 42 hits allowed and a 22 BB/55 K ratio. He struggled in 2009 as he battled elbow problems and eventually underwent Tommy John surgery after being released by the Angels and signed by the Reds. I thought signing Arredondo was an excellent under the radar move by Jocketty. If healthy, he's got a chance to really help the Reds bullpen next season and beyond.

Another guy to keep an eye on is LHP Donnie Joseph. He's been pitching like Billy Wagner in the minors this season and should be ready to step into the majors next season, and maybe even late this season.

I think the pitching staff for next year and beyond looks very promising, especially if the Reds can acquire a vet to put at the top of the rotation.

You're right. Arredondo could be an amazing addition and a future closer. Or he could go all Bill Bray and disappear. Hope for the former.

bucksfan2
06-14-2010, 12:52 PM
I would dangle Cueto as a trading chip. I just don't know if he will ever become a consistent pitcher.

Falls City Beer
06-14-2010, 01:13 PM
I would dangle Cueto as a trading chip. I just don't know if he will ever become a consistent pitcher.

I think he'll be consistent. Consistently middle of the rotation. Which is definitely valuable, especially at what he's getting paid.

Benihana
06-14-2010, 01:15 PM
I think he'll be consistent. Consistently middle of the rotation. Which is definitely valuable, especially at what he's getting paid.

Agreed. IMO Cueto is/will be a very good #3 or a mediocre #2. Either way, he's worth keeping.

RedsManRick
06-14-2010, 01:20 PM
I'm not sure that we're paying enough attention to the impact of our defense in this discussion.



DER UZR/150
2009 .705 (3rd) 9.0 (1st)
2010 .683 (12th) 0.9 (8th)

Clearly our defense has not performed as well this year. Place the blame where you will, but the pitching staff is not getting as much help. That said, how have they performed on their own?

Some relevant data is below, but last year Reds pitchers enjoyed an ERA .45 runs less than FIP would suggest. This year, they're .25 runs above. This year's staff has had a few more K's and a few more homers, but the big difference is a 26 point swing in BABIP. Maybe that's just random variation. Maybe that's allowing more a few more line drives (19.1% in 2009 to 19.9% in 2010). But I think some significant part of it is defense.

I think one of the biggest changes that could be made to help this pitching staff is putting an above average defender at SS. I don't know if that's Janish, Cozart, or somebody from outside of the system. But Cabrera is simply not good enough offensively to offset his defensive shortcomings. I would make the same argument in LF and would like to see Heisey get more time, but I know Gomes will be there so long as he continues to hit as he has.

For SP, I would like to see the money currently being spend on Harang and Arroyo invested in a true ace along the lines of Cliff Lee or Dan Haren. We have the trade assets to acquire one of the guys on the market or the financial flexibility to pursue somebody in FA. We have plenty of SP depth; we lack front end of the rotation talent.

In terms of bullpen, I'd really like to see the Reds make better use of the talent it already has. There is absolutely no reason to use money on guys like Mike Lincoln when you have multiple swing type guys in AAA. This team has not been very creative about making use of talent in the bullpen and could benefit big time from some. Whether that's Bailey, Volquez, Klinker, Maloney, Chapman -- I don't know. But I do know that pitching a guy in relief is not a life sentence. Save for the guys who we're grooming for the rotation and whom will be given a spot when ready, let's get our 11 or 12 best pitchers on the staff and then sort out roles. Having guys like Maloney and Wood on the back burner in AAA does not help the major league team.



2009 IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% ERA FIP E-F xFIP
Bronson Arroyo 220.1 5.2 2.7 1.3 .270 77% 3.84 4.78 -0.94 4.56
Johnny Cueto 171.1 6.9 3.2 1.3 .296 74% 4.41 4.69 -0.28 4.57
Aaron Harang 162.1 7.9 2.4 1.3 .339 76% 4.21 4.14 0.08 3.95
Micah Owings 119.2 5.1 4.8 1.4 .286 71% 5.34 5.67 -0.33 5.63
Homer Bailey 113.1 6.8 4.1 1.0 .306 71% 4.53 4.41 0.11 4.58
Nick Masset 76.0 8.3 2.8 0.7 .250 81% 2.37 3.23 -0.86 3.33
Francisco Corde 66.2 7.8 4.1 0.3 .301 79% 2.16 3.10 -0.94 4.06
Justin Lehr 65.1 4.6 3.9 1.9 .277 77% 5.37 6.30 -0.92 5.35
Daniel Ray Herr 61.2 6.4 3.5 0.7 .309 72% 3.06 3.99 -0.92 4.15
Jared Burton 59.1 6.8 3.5 0.8 .314 72% 4.40 4.04 0.36 4.76
Arthur Rhodes 53.1 8.1 3.4 0.5 .249 78% 2.53 3.21 -0.68 3.96
Carlos Fisher 52.1 8.3 5.3 0.7 .316 73% 4.47 4.09 0.38 4.51
Edinson Volquez 49.2 8.5 5.8 1.1 .231 74% 4.35 5.01 -0.66 4.62
Kip Wells 46.1 4.9 4.3 1.0 .232 70% 4.66 5.17 -0.51 5.09
Matt Maloney 40.2 6.2 1.8 2.0 .282 77% 4.87 5.41 -0.54 4.81
David Weathers 38.0 6.4 4.0 1.7 .200 88% 3.32 5.41 -2.10 4.74
Mike Lincoln 23.0 3.5 7.4 2.7 .283 74% 8.22 9.27 -1.05 7.09
Josh Roenicke 13.1 9.5 2.7 0.0 .355 77% 2.70 1.90 0.80 3.02
Ramon Ramirez 12.1 5.8 2.9 1.5 .183 78% 3.65 5.12 -1.48 5.01
Pedro Viola 7.0 6.4 3.9 2.6 .253 83% 5.14 6.67 -1.53 5.10
Robert Manuel 4.1 4.2 2.1 0.0 .329 100% 0.00 2.87 -2.87 5.39
Paul Janish 2.0 13.5 9.0 9.0 .726 0% 49.50 16.10 33.40 5.83
Total 1458.1 6.6 3.6 1.2 .288 74% 4.18 4.63 -0.45 4.57

2010 IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% ERA FIP E-F xFIP
Bronson Arroyo 86.1 4.9 3.2 0.9 .271 67% 4.80 4.52 0.27 5.06
Johnny Cueto 78.0 7.5 2.7 0.9 .311 71% 4.50 3.85 0.65 4.11
Mike Leake 77.1 6.1 3.4 0.7 .297 81% 2.68 3.94 -1.26 4.20
Aaron Harang 76.2 6.9 2.2 1.4 .337 69% 5.17 4.46 0.70 4.00
Homer Bailey 50.2 7.3 3.7 1.2 .316 68% 5.51 4.71 0.80 4.66
Francisco Corde 31.0 8.1 3.8 0.9 .328 78% 3.77 3.82 -0.04 4.06
Arthur Rhodes 28.0 8.4 2.9 0.3 .172 100% 0.32 2.68 -2.36 3.29
Nick Masset 28.0 11.9 5.1 1.6 .462 69% 7.07 4.61 2.46 3.55
Micah Owings 26.0 8.3 6.6 0.4 .289 76% 3.81 4.19 -0.38 5.58
Sam Lecure 24.0 6.0 5.6 1.1 .279 84% 3.75 5.53 -1.78 5.32
Mike Lincoln 19.2 5.5 4.6 0.5 .356 59% 7.32 4.38 2.94 5.31
Daniel Ray Herr 17.1 5.2 1.6 0.5 .382 75% 4.15 3.22 0.93 4.05
Logan Ondrusek 12.2 4.3 4.3 2.1 .320 64% 7.82 6.66 1.15 5.74
Carlos Fisher 11.0 8.2 7.4 0.8 .382 53% 9.82 5.20 4.62 5.51
Enerio Del Rosa 8.2 3.1 4.2 0.0 .377 77% 2.08 3.80 -1.72 5.06
Total 575.1 6.8 3.6 1.0 .314 72% 4.52 4.70 0.25 4.46

Chip R
06-14-2010, 02:28 PM
I know no one wants to pick up Harang's option but does anyone have any interest in buying him out then re-signing him at a significantly lower price, say about $3-4M a year for 1 year?

nate
06-14-2010, 02:29 PM
Rick again says everything I was going to say except better, more persuasively and with better grammar.

Thunder thief!

:cool:

Raisor
06-14-2010, 02:31 PM
Rick again says everything I was going to say except better, more persuasively and with better grammar.

Thunder thief!

:cool:

you might as well quit.

Degenerate39
06-14-2010, 02:44 PM
2011 Rotation:

Cliff Lee
Edison Volquez
Mike Leake
Johnny Cueto
Aldrois Chapman

Closer- Fransisco Cordero
Set up- Arthur Rhodes
Set up- Jared Burton?
Middle- Billy Bray
Middle- Nick Masset?
Middle- Homer Bailey
Middle- Micah Owings
Long- Sam Lecure

Kc61
06-14-2010, 02:49 PM
2011 Rotation:

Cliff Lee
Edison Volquez
Mike Leake
Johnny Cueto
Aldrois Chapman

Closer- Fransisco Cordero
Set up- Arthur Rhodes
Set up- Jared Burton?
Middle- Billy Bray
Middle- Nick Masset?
Middle- Homer Bailey
Middle- Micah Owings
Long- Sam Lecure

Hopefully there will be another solid addition to the pen - without a question mark.

Degenerate39
06-14-2010, 02:51 PM
Hopefully there will be another solid addition to the pen - without a question mark.

Yeah but on paper that's not a bad bullpen if Burton and Bray come back healthy for 2011 and Rhodes continues to have some success. Also if Masset turns things around

Raisor
06-14-2010, 02:57 PM
Yeah but on paper that's not a bad bullpen if Burton and Bray come back healthy for 2011 and Rhodes continues to have some success. Also if Masset turns things around

I counted four "ifs" there.

If Burton comes back healthy
If Bray comes back healthy
If Rhodes continues to have success
If Masset turns thing around.

nate
06-14-2010, 02:59 PM
you might as well quit.

Probably.