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OnBaseMachine
06-14-2010, 02:49 PM
1. Cliff Lee
2. Ben Sheets
3. Dan Haren
4. Roy Oswalt
5. Jeremy Guthrie
6. Ted Lilly
7. Jake Westbrook
8. Fausto Carmona

Read the article here:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-tendegrees061310

Dan Haren and Fausto Carmona interest me the most because they're still young and signed past this season. I think Jocketty may have interest in Haren because Haren was drafted under Walt's watch. IIRC, the Reds sent a scout to watch Sheets during the offseason so I won't be surprised if the Reds are interested in him at the deadline, though he hasn't be that great this season. Cliff Lee is probably the best of the bunch but he's a free agent after this season. Even with that factored in, I'd still go after Lee though Haren and Carmona would be my two main targets.

Tom Servo
06-14-2010, 02:58 PM
Haren's a guy I would unload the farm for.

redsfan30
06-14-2010, 03:01 PM
Lee and Haren would be the only two on this list that I'd want to look at. Otherwise, focus on the bullpen.

TRF
06-14-2010, 03:13 PM
Haren is on pace to give up 35+ HR's. Put him in GABP and it could go higher. He's def. buy low and probably a good risk, but he's averaged about 220 IP the last 5 seasons.

OnBaseMachine
06-14-2010, 03:15 PM
Haren's a guy I would unload the farm for.

Excluding Chapman, I'd tell the D-Backs to pick three or four prospects they want in return for Haren.

2010 rotation:

Dan Haren
Johnny Cueto
Mike Leake
Bronson Arroyo
Aaron Harang/Edinson Volquez/Homer Bailey

2011 rotation:

Dan Haren
Edinson Volquez
Mike Leake
Johnny Cueto
Aroldis Chapman

OnBaseMachine
06-14-2010, 03:38 PM
From Jon Heyman:



9. Reds

They've made some shocking additions in recent years, like Scott Rolen and Aroldis Chapman. There's been little suggestion they're involved yet, though they do look like a clear contender at this point. They have a chance at both Lee and Oswalt.


http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/jon_heyman/06/14/oswalt.lee/1.html

RedsManRick
06-14-2010, 03:39 PM
Considering how reasonably priced he is, Carmona is an interesting option. You have to love the ground ball tendencies, though there are causes for concern as well.


10:$4.9M
11:$6.1M
12:$7M club option
13:$9M club option
14:$12M club option

I imagine he would take less to get than the real aces on the list.

fearofpopvol1
06-14-2010, 04:14 PM
Considering how reasonably priced he is, Carmona is an interesting option. You have to love the ground ball tendencies, though there are causes for concern as well.


10:$4.9M
11:$6.1M
12:$7M club option
13:$9M club option
14:$12M club option

I imagine he would take less to get than the real aces on the list.

I agree with this, but the issue is...that's a long contract if he implodes and he's less of a sure bet than some of the others on the list.

bucksfan2
06-14-2010, 04:22 PM
Considering how reasonably priced he is, Carmona is an interesting option. You have to love the ground ball tendencies, though there are causes for concern as well.


10:$4.9M
11:$6.1M
12:$7M club option
13:$9M club option
14:$12M club option

I imagine he would take less to get than the real aces on the list.

Which Carmona are you going to get? The 2007 Carmona who was dominant? Of the 2008-2009 Carmona who was poor at best. And IIRC was sent to the minors for a while.

2010 looks to be a bounce back year, but he would be a big risk. I probably would take it, but it could come back to be a very toxic contract.

edabbs44
06-14-2010, 05:24 PM
Considering how reasonably priced he is, Carmona is an interesting option. You have to love the ground ball tendencies, though there are causes for concern as well.


10:$4.9M
11:$6.1M
12:$7M club option
13:$9M club option
14:$12M club option

I imagine he would take less to get than the real aces on the list.

Yeah, that contact isn't bad. Also coming to the NL doesn't hurt. I can handle $6MM for one year even if he proves to be back of the rotation.

edabbs44
06-14-2010, 05:25 PM
Which Carmona are you going to get? The 2007 Carmona who was dominant? Of the 2008-2009 Carmona who was poor at best. And IIRC was sent to the minors for a while.

2010 looks to be a bounce back year, but he would be a big risk. I probably would take it, but it could come back to be a very toxic contract.

Those are all club options. Not toxic at all.

OnBaseMachine
06-14-2010, 05:30 PM
I asked Jon Heyman if he thinks the Reds will go after Dan Haren. His response:

@RedsFan47 wouldnt rule anything out with reds now

http://twitter.com/SI_JonHeyman

edabbs44
06-14-2010, 05:32 PM
I asked Jon Heyman if he thinks the Reds will go after Dan Haren. His response:

@RedsFan47 wouldnt rule anything out with reds now

http://twitter.com/SI_JonHeyman

Such a good time to be a Reds fan.

bucksfan2
06-14-2010, 05:33 PM
Those are all club options. Not toxic at all.

Ohhh. Yea now I notice that. Yea Carmona's contract isn't bad at all. The big question remains, which Carmona are you getting?

edabbs44
06-14-2010, 05:35 PM
Ohhh. Yea now I notice that. Yea Carmona's contract isn't bad at all. The big question remains, which Carmona are you getting?

For $1.7MM this year and $6MM next year, I'd be willing to find out. Especially when he can replace Harang in the rotation next year at a savings.

TRF
06-14-2010, 05:36 PM
Ohhh. Yea now I notice that. Yea Carmona's contract isn't bad at all. The big question remains, which Carmona are you getting?

Well pitchers that switch leagues usually get a bump, at least for a while. AL pitchers might see a sustained bump. Carpenter certainly did. He was dreck as an AL pitcher.

But nothing is certain.

buckeyenut
06-15-2010, 09:07 AM
I don't think Lee makes much sense. I want an ace for the stretch run AND next year. I like Carmona and Haren as has been described. Beyond that, I still love the idea of going after Oswalt with Harang going back.

Ghosts of 1990
06-15-2010, 10:47 AM
Haren's a guy I would unload the farm for.

Yes same here

The Operator
06-15-2010, 11:06 AM
Count me in for Haren.

I wanted The Reds to land him before the '08 season and I'd still love for The Reds to bring him aboard.

edabbs44
06-15-2010, 11:17 AM
Haren is notorious for his 2nd half dip in production.

Benihana
06-15-2010, 11:33 AM
Does Haren leading the league in HR allowed not bother anyone?

Don't get me wrong, it may be a great buy-low opportunity, but I don't know if that can be ignored, especially if you are talking about selling the farm to bring him to GABP.

I would be very happy with Haren, Lee, or Carmona. Given their respective contract situations and what it would take to get them, I'd be very content trading for any of those three. I don't have much interest in Sheets. Guthrie would be OK but not a game-changer, Oswalt is probably unrealistic, and I'm not sure if Lilly would be much of an upgrade (or if the Cubs would trade him in the division.)

A more interesting question is what kind of packages would it take to get Lee, Carmona, or Haren?

OnBaseMachine
06-15-2010, 01:14 PM
It appears the D-Backs firesale has begun as they just dealt Conor Jackson to the A's for RHP Sam Demel.

Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds are clearly not available but everyone else probably is. Dan Haren interests me the most, as do Edwin Jackson and Stephen Drew, though the Reds seem happy with Cabrera and won't replace him midseason. Dan Haren would be my number one target but Edwin Jackson is a solid pitcher as well.

Edit - from Jon Heyman:

#Dbacks will "blow things up'' says opposing exec. trade conor jackson to #Athletics for minor league rhp sam demel

http://twitter.com/SI_JonHeyman

edabbs44
06-15-2010, 01:28 PM
It appears the D-Backs firesale has begun as they just dealt Conor Jackson to the A's for RHP Sam Demel.

Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds are clearly not available but everyone else probably is. Dan Haren interests me the most, as do Edwin Jackson and Stephen Drew, though the Reds seem happy with Cabrera and won't replace him midseason. Dan Haren would be my number one target but Edwin Jackson is a solid pitcher as well.

Edit - from Jon Heyman:

#Dbacks will "blow things up'' says opposing exec. trade conor jackson to #Athletics for minor league rhp sam demel

http://twitter.com/SI_JonHeyman

Edwin isn't doing much for me. $8+MM next year and isn't really much better than what is here.

Haren, sure, if the finances are OK. Carmona would interest me. Oswalt and Lee, obviously.

OnBaseMachine
06-15-2010, 04:35 PM
From Ken Rosenthal:


So far, most of the Cliff Lee speculation has centered around the Yankees. But Lee, whose days with the Mariners look increasingly numbered, figures to draw attention from at least three teams in the NL Central, as well as the Rangers, Mets, Dodgers and every other club with a pulse.


The Redsí system is in better shape, and besides some advanced starting pitching (right-hander Matt Maloney, lefty Travis Wood), they could offer Class AAA first baseman Yonder Alonso, who is stuck behind Joey Votto, or third baseman Juan Francisco, who is stuck behind Scott Rolen.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/atlanta-braves-armed-for-fight-in-nl-east-061510

Um, Ken, Maloney is left handed.

OnBaseMachine
06-15-2010, 04:38 PM
From Buster Olney:

The D-Backs are making it clear that they are willing to move anybody not named Justin Upton or Ian Kennedy. Dan Haren? Yes, they will talk.

http://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN

lollipopcurve
06-15-2010, 04:44 PM
I expect Walt and Big Bob to do something sizeable in the next 6 weeks.

Benihana
06-15-2010, 04:59 PM
I expect Walt and Big Bob to do something sizeable in the next 6 weeks.

Agreed. And for the first time in a long time, I have complete faith in the GM's ability to get it done. Let's get another Stewart-for-Rolen deal, only this time for a pitcher!

edabbs44
06-15-2010, 05:05 PM
I expect Walt and Big Bob to do something sizeable in the next 6 weeks.

I get the feeling that they will do something as long as it fits into their overall plan.

OnBaseMachine
06-15-2010, 05:09 PM
Call me crazy, but I think if the Reds can acquire a top of rotation starter like Cliff Lee, Dan Haren, or Roy Oswalt and one reliever, whether it be J.J. Putz or someone else, IMO the Reds would immediately become the favorites to win the NL Central AND have the ability to go deep into the playoffs.

Rotation:

Lee/Haren/Oswalt
Cueto
Leake
Arroyo
Harang/Volquez/Chapman/Bailey

Bullpen:

Cordero
Putz/another acquisition
Volquez
Chapman
Masset
Rhodes
Bray/Herrera

lollipopcurve
06-15-2010, 05:15 PM
I get the feeling that they will do something as long as it fits into their overall plan.

Seems to me they have enough young talent to be able to sacrifice some of it in the interest of making a real run this year, without compromising to a significant extent their competitiveness in 2011 and beyond. At least I hope so....

fearofpopvol1
06-15-2010, 06:36 PM
From Ken Rosenthal:





http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/atlanta-braves-armed-for-fight-in-nl-east-061510

Um, Ken, Maloney is left handed.

Would Francisco and Wood (or Maloney) be enough to get Cliff Lee? If so, Walt, get it done NOW!! Heck, they can have both Maloney and Wood!

I don't really want to trade Alonso in this deal, however.

OnBaseMachine
06-15-2010, 09:00 PM
Lee, who turns 32 on Aug. 30, is a free agent at the end of the season. His record in nine starts is only 4-3, but his 2.88 ERA ranks sixth in the American League. He has struck out 60 and walked only four in 68 2/3 innings.

The Mets, Yankees, Rangers, Dodgers and Reds are among the clubs that have either shown interest or are expected to show interest in Lee.


http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Seattle-Mariners-getting-inquiries-about-Lee

RedsManRick
06-15-2010, 10:50 PM
Would Francisco and Wood (or Maloney) be enough to get Cliff Lee? If so, Walt, get it done NOW!! Heck, they can have both Maloney and Wood!

I don't really want to trade Alonso in this deal, however.

Dave Cameron's analysis at Fangraphs suggests not.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/cliff-lees-trade-value/#comment-183970



That would make the asset that is Cliff Lee worth between $20 and $26 million. He’s due about $5 million left of his 2010 salary, so we’ll subtract that amount from the overall total, and get $15 to $21 million in surplus value.

What does that look like in terms of prospects? According to the values Wang came up with, that’s a hitting prospect in the 25-75 range or a top 10 pitching prospect, plus maybe another lesser piece or two in order to win the bidding. Historically, that is basically what we see. The Indians obtained Matt LaPorta and change for CC Sabathia two years ago. The A’s got Brett Wallace and change for Matt Holliday last year. That is basically the established return for a rent-a-star.

If you’re a GM shopping for Cliff Lee this summer, that looks to be the price – $15 to $20 million worth of value, which translates into one high quality prospect and a few fillers.

Take your package and add Alonso and it's closer to what this analysis suggests. I don't suppose we can interest them in Homer Bailey?

HokieRed
06-15-2010, 11:08 PM
Seems to me they have enough young talent to be able to sacrifice some of it in the interest of making a real run this year, without compromising to a significant extent their competitiveness in 2011 and beyond. At least I hope so....


I think I'm less convinced of this. I see Harang and Arroyo as gone next year, Bailey questionable, ditto Volquez, LeCure not really more than a 5 guy, ditto Maloney, Leake, despite his great beginning, still largely unproven, Chapman still in need of considerable refining. Wood I like better than most RZers. Without Harang and Arroyo--and minus maybe two of the young starters to get this deal done (and I think other teams, knowing what we have, will insist Wood--and not Maloney--be one of the two)--I think we've compromised the 2011 season quite a lot. Will 5 of these 6 get it done next year: Oswalt, Chapman, Cueto, Bailey, Volquez, Leake? Those ought to be our best six with Wood gone.

HumnHilghtFreel
06-15-2010, 11:44 PM
I'd be thrilled if they got Carmona on the cheap.

Oswalt would be great, not sure what the bidding would start at. Extra fee for being in the same division likely.

Haren scares me right now

Lee costs a king's ransom and bolts in FA, not so sure on that one.

RedsManRick
06-15-2010, 11:56 PM
Now is the perfect time to buy on Haren if he's available. His K and BB rates have been spectacular. He's been hit unlucky (17.2 LD%, .345 BABIP) and HR/FB unlucky (15.2% HR/FB, 11.1% career). He's getting more swinging strikes than at any time in his career. If he can be had for less than full value, I'd love for the Reds to go after him.

fearofpopvol1
06-16-2010, 12:10 AM
If the Reds are giving up Alonso, I would rather them go after Haren. The Reds need an inning eater next year and this would assure the Reds they could punt both Arroyo and Harang.

Homer Bailey may be a good call for Seattle though, Rick. He might find success there and he once was a first rounder. I imagine they'll want him to be healthy though.

Bailey/Francisco/Maloney for Lee?

Does that seem fair?

The Operator
06-16-2010, 01:37 AM
It may just be me but The Reds pitching problems seem to be heading toward critical mass lately. 12-0 to The Dodgers tonight.

If they don't do something soon then this will go down as another in a long line of hot starts with nothing to show for it. Each year that this happens it will only make it harder and harder for them to get casual fans out to the ballpark.

OnBaseMachine
06-16-2010, 03:23 AM
The Reds desperately need a guy like a Dan Haren to replace Aaron Harang in the rotation. Harang looks like he is done as a starting pitcher. He can't even throw his curveball for strikes anymore, and when he does it gets crushed. I'd be calling the D-Backs and offering up a deal centered around Yonder Alonso + a few other prospects for Haren.

lollipopcurve
06-16-2010, 08:09 AM
I like Haren as the target, too. He'd be around for a couple more years at Arroyo/Harang prices. Jocketty made the Dunn deal with Byrnes, so maybe they can work something out again.

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2010, 12:57 PM
I'll just post this in here:


Jocketty, who signed veteran utility player Miguel Cairo in late January, says the National League Central leaders have the resources to add another veteran or two.

"If we are in position to do something during the year, we will find a way to do it," Jocketty says.


http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/nl/reds/2010-06-17-reds-young-talent_N.htm

edabbs44
06-18-2010, 01:04 PM
I'm starting to think that Haren has the potential to be a big mistake. I'd rather go with Lee or Carmona, if available.

Plus Plus
06-18-2010, 01:34 PM
I'm not sure what people are seeing in Carmona. Giving up anything useful for him would be a mistake; he has been approximately terrible in the last two seasons. A close friend who is an Indians fan told me that he would be elated to rid his team of Carmona.

I would be more fond of giving Wood a look at MLB than trading anything of value for a pitcher who has been terrible in two of the last three seasons.

Benihana
06-18-2010, 01:37 PM
FWIW, the USS Mariner summarily dismisses the Reds as a destination for Cliff Lee, with basically no explanation. I find this bizarre:

http://www.ussmariner.com/2010/06/14/trading-cliff-lee/

TRF
06-18-2010, 01:43 PM
Pass on Haren for me. He could easily be a "year too late" player. Carmona on the other hand would come cheaper, would be switching leagues, and is only 26, three years younger than Haren.

I'd go Alonso and maybe a High A player for Carmona.

The Operator
06-18-2010, 01:58 PM
I'd go Alonso and maybe a High A player for Carmona.

It might just be me but I would never, ever, ever give up Alonso in a deal for Fausto Carmona.

Plus, I think it's going to take a little more than a guy like Carmona to do any good with this mess of a staff. Things really are bad right now.

edabbs44
06-18-2010, 02:04 PM
I'm not sure what people are seeing in Carmona. Giving up anything useful for him would be a mistake; he has been approximately terrible in the last two seasons. A close friend who is an Indians fan told me that he would be elated to rid his team of Carmona.

I would be more fond of giving Wood a look at MLB than trading anything of value for a pitcher who has been terrible in two of the last three seasons.

He's been anything but terrible this season.

Benihana
06-18-2010, 02:08 PM
Pass on Haren for me. He could easily be a "year too late" player. Carmona on the other hand would come cheaper, would be switching leagues, and is only 26, three years younger than Haren.

I'd go Alonso and maybe a High A player for Carmona.

If he can continue to hit in Louisville for the next month, I would think Alonso by himself might be enough for Carmona.

It would be like the Casey-for-Burba trade in reverse.

nemesis
06-18-2010, 02:22 PM
If the Reds are giving up Alonso, I would rather them go after Haren. The Reds need an inning eater next year and this would assure the Reds they could punt both Arroyo and Harang.

Homer Bailey may be a good call for Seattle though, Rick. He might find success there and he once was a first rounder. I imagine they'll want him to be healthy though.

Bailey/Francisco/Maloney for Lee?

Does that seem fair?



Not even close to fair. No way do you give up Bailey for a half a season rental. If he committed to a long term deal yes. But that isn't going to happen.

I personally would do Bailey/Alonso/Krebs/Ondrusek for Haren and a Low A Prospect like Brewer, Borchering or Davidson...

fearofpopvol1
06-18-2010, 02:44 PM
Not even close to fair. No way do you give up Bailey for a half a season rental. If he committed to a long term deal yes. But that isn't going to happen.

I personally would do Bailey/Alonso/Krebs/Ondrusek for Haren and a Low A Prospect like Brewer, Borchering or Davidson...

If the Reds make the playoffs or the World Series, would it still be unfair? Are you forgetting the Reds will get a high draft pick next year if Lee walks?

I'm not high at all on Francisco and Maloney is easily replaceable. So really, in my mind, we're trading Bailey for Lee. Seems fine to me.

However, my preference is a Haren deal.

Plus Plus
06-18-2010, 02:52 PM
He's been anything but terrible this season.

And anything but good in the last two. Livan Hernandez has been good this year as well...

RedsManRick
06-18-2010, 03:18 PM
Not even close to fair. No way do you give up Bailey for a half a season rental. If he committed to a long term deal yes. But that isn't going to happen.

I personally would do Bailey/Alonso/Krebs/Ondrusek for Haren and a Low A Prospect like Brewer, Borchering or Davidson...

A half season rental and not insignificant comp picks.

nemesis
06-18-2010, 03:24 PM
If the Reds make the playoffs or the World Series, would it still be unfair? Are you forgetting the Reds will get a high draft pick next year if Lee walks?

I'm not high at all on Francisco and Maloney is easily replaceable. So really, in my mind, we're trading Bailey for Lee. Seems fine to me.

However, my preference is a Haren deal.

IF the Reds make the Playoffs, If the Reds get to the NLCS, IF the Reds get to WS... IF IF IF. The Brewers made a similar deal a couple years ago to get Sabathia and it didn't really work out so well for them. So IF is a big deal. Yes they get a draft pick. No guarantee that works out either. Lee is just not worth 4 more years of Bailey and his ceiling for a half a year of could be's maybe's and what if's... Wood, Maloney, Klinker, Fairel, Boxberger, Alonso, Soto, Heisey, Francisco any of the Bullpen guys short of Joseph... absolutely.

Haren is by far and away my preference too... Just fits here. I wonder if Zona would take Harang and a couple, few million to help balance out the payroll for the rest of the season? On top pf the prospects it would take to get him.

bucksfan2
06-18-2010, 03:28 PM
IF the Reds make the Playoffs, If the Reds get to the NLCS, IF the Reds get to WS... IF IF IF. The Brewers made a similar deal a couple years ago to get Sabathia and it didn't really work out so well for them. So IF is a big deal. Yes they get a draft pick. No guarantee that works out either. Lee is just not worth 4 more years of Bailey and his ceiling for a half a year of could be's maybe's and what if's... Wood, Maloney, Klinker, Fairel, Boxberger, Alonso, Soto, Heisey, Francisco any of the Bullpen guys short of Joseph... absolutely.

Haren is by far and away my preference too... Just fits here. I wonder if Zona would take Harang and a couple, few million to help balance out the payroll for the rest of the season? On top pf the prospects it would take to get him.

Actually Sabathia was a horse for Milwaukee during the stretch drive and pretty much single handily got them to the playoffs. And if you go back and look at the trade even though Milwaukee lost Sabathia the key cog in the trade, LaPorta, hasn't done much of anything in the majors.

pedro
06-18-2010, 03:29 PM
The milwaukee trade worked out great for them. They just couldn't get over the top.

Plus they got draft pics for Sabathia didn't they?

Bill
06-18-2010, 03:34 PM
Teams tried to trade for Carmona in the off-season and Cleveland said no. Perhaps now with his value higher, it is possible, particularly given the club losing money, but with their rotation a mess, I can't see them dealing both Westbrook and Carmona. The few remaining ticket buyers would revolt. We'll see though.

edabbs44
06-18-2010, 03:45 PM
And anything but good in the last two. Livan Hernandez has been good this year as well...

Carmona is young and has had success in the majors, including this season. Club favorable contract and a groundball pitcher. Coming over from the AL. He has a lot of plusses.

Walt doesn't seem like he's in "go all in" mode, so I don't see him emptying the farm for 2 months of Cliff Lee. As we have seen, he doesn't chase the bid. If Lee works for his overall philosophy, then he'll make a play. If not, he will look elsewhere.

Remember he is trying to build a winning franchise, not go to the playoffs in 2010 and then crap out.

nemesis
06-18-2010, 04:43 PM
Actually Sabathia was a horse for Milwaukee during the stretch drive and pretty much single handily got them to the playoffs. And if you go back and look at the trade even though Milwaukee lost Sabathia the key cog in the trade, LaPorta, hasn't done much of anything in the majors.

But they didn't get to the WS which was the argument. Once again just making it to the Playoffs is not enough to trade Bailey for when keeping him another 4 years might get them there the next 2 or 3 outta 4... I'm not trying to say he is the be all end all (Bailey) I just prefer not to dump a TOR arm for half a season of a guy who is as good as gone as soon as he gets here. Haren? Yes. Oswalt? Yes. Carmona? Maybe.

kaldaniels
06-18-2010, 04:54 PM
But they didn't get to the WS which was the argument. Once again just making it to the Playoffs is not enough to trade Bailey for when keeping him another 4 years might get them there the next 2 or 3 outta 4... I'm not trying to say he is the be all end all (Bailey) I just prefer not to dump a TOR arm for half a season of a guy who is as good as gone as soon as he gets here. Haren? Yes. Oswalt? Yes. Carmona? Maybe.

Eh, Sabathia did every thing in his power to try to help the Brewers get to the WS. I thought it was a solid move at the time...there is no move out there that will guarantee a WS crown...just ones that will drastically increase your odds. The Brewers choked. Can't fault the GM or CC for that...and look, who did they give up for CC...not much it now seems. Kudos to the Brew Crew for going for it...even though I was rooting against them. :D

fearofpopvol1
06-18-2010, 05:04 PM
But they didn't get to the WS which was the argument. Once again just making it to the Playoffs is not enough to trade Bailey for when keeping him another 4 years might get them there the next 2 or 3 outta 4... I'm not trying to say he is the be all end all (Bailey) I just prefer not to dump a TOR arm for half a season of a guy who is as good as gone as soon as he gets here. Haren? Yes. Oswalt? Yes. Carmona? Maybe.

You're never going to be guaranteed to make it to the WS...but you want to give yourself the best chance possible to get there. The Brew Crew did that. It didn't work out, but they sure tried. If the Reds are still in the thick of things before the All Star break, I hope they make a big trade as well.

nate
06-18-2010, 05:24 PM
Pass on Carmona. That's a treadmill move.

Make a real difference and get Lee or Haren. Heck, sign Pedro.

Benihana
06-18-2010, 05:42 PM
I'm not sure who I'd pay more for (in prospects) at this point- Haren or Lee, even considering their contract situations.

Sure Haren makes less money and is signed for an extra year. But he is also pitching at his worst, and leads the league in HRs allowed. Surely pitching in GAB can't help.

Lee OTOH is pitching at top form and would be switching leagues. Plus he will assuredly turn down arbitration and bring two very significant comp picks. There is no guarantee Haren will bring those even after the 2011 season.

My guess is the price would be Alonso and Mesoraco for Lee and Alonso and Bailey for Haren. If true, would you pull the trigger? Which pitcher would you rather have, contract and all?

Carmona probably carries slightly less value given his volatile track record, although he is the youngest and has the most favorable contract situation (all team options). Plus he is pitching well right now. My guess is he might cost two or three second-tier guys like Heisey, Francisco and Maloney.

Given those hypothetical price tags, which player would you trade for?

bucksfan2
06-18-2010, 05:48 PM
I'm not sure who I'd pay more for (in prospects) at this point- Haren or Lee, even considering their contract situations.

Sure Haren makes less money and is signed for an extra year. But he is also pitching at his worst, and leads the league in HRs allowed. Surely pitching in GAB can't help.

Lee OTOH is pitching at top form and would be switching leagues. Plus he will assuredly turn down arbitration and bring two very significant comp picks. There is no guarantee Haren will bring those even after the 2011 season.

My guess is the price would be Alonso and Mesoraco for Lee and Alonso and Bailey for Haren. If true, would you pull the trigger? Which pitcher would you rather have, contract and all?

Carmona probably carries slightly less value given his volatile track record, although he is the youngest and has the most favorable contract situation (all team options). Plus he is pitching well right now. My guess is he might cost two or three second-tier guys like Heisey, Francisco and Maloney.

Given those hypothetical price tags, which player would you trade for?

I really think its darn near impossible to figure out what it would take in order to get a certain player. But if what you said holds court and I could get Haren for Alonso and Bailey and also Carmona for Heisey, Francisco, and Maloney I pull the trigger on both.

Will M
06-18-2010, 05:59 PM
Pass on Carmona. That's a treadmill move.

Make a real difference and get Lee or Haren. Heck, sign Pedro.

1. Carmona was awful in 2008 & 2009. this year hie ERA & WHIP look good. however, in 86 IP he only has 45 Ks. that a bit of a red flag to me.

2. Question: why is everyone including Bailey in trade proposals. Since he on the DL with some sort of shoulder issue I'd expect his trade value to be zip until he proves he is healthy.

edabbs44
06-18-2010, 06:00 PM
Pass on Carmona. That's a treadmill move.

Make a real difference and get Lee or Haren. Heck, sign Pedro.
Pedro over Carmona? Not a chance.

Will M
06-18-2010, 06:11 PM
My guess is the price would be Alonso and Mesoraco for Lee and Alonso and Bailey for Haren. If true, would you pull the trigger? Which pitcher would you rather have, contract and all?




I would do either of these deals in a heartbeat & BOTH if Bob upped the payroll.

Remember, its not Alonso & Mesoraco for Lee. its not Alonso & Mesoraco for Lee, a 1rst round pick & a sandwich pick.

if the team added a top starter and Volquez comes back i have a thought: rather than just shutting Mike Leake down when he reaches a certain point, instead move him to the pen when Volquez comes back.

nemesis
06-18-2010, 06:17 PM
My guess is the price would be Alonso and Mesoraco for Lee and Alonso and Bailey for Haren. If true, would you pull the trigger? Which pitcher would you rather have, contract and all?

Carmona probably carries slightly less value given his volatile track record, although he is the youngest and has the most favorable contract situation (all team options). Plus he is pitching well right now. My guess is he might cost two or three second-tier guys like Heisey, Francisco and Maloney.

Given those hypothetical price tags, which player would you trade for?

I would do Haren. Giving Bailey up for one and a half years of a 29 - 31 year old Haren and easily still a Tier A FA after that, so still getting the picks if he can't be resigned. He profiles as a Strikeout, GB pitcher regardless of all the HR's this year coaxing 22 more GO's than FO's...

As far as his HR ratio goes. It doesn't bother me that much because he hardly walks anyone so they are going to be mostly of the solo variety.

After a rough start in April and May he has had a outstanding June.

4 Starts / 2 - 1 / 2.96 ERA / 27.1 Innings / 2 HR Allowed / 5 BB's / 25 K's

Trending closer to what his last 3 seasons #'s looked like.

Being pushed hard too... Last 4 starts has thrown 468 Pitches.

His contract would replace Harang's next year and it would allow the team to not tender Arroyo as well next year because he would be signed to anchor the staff freeing up another 11 Million to upgrade the team or maintain payroll. Lee wouldn't give you that luxury.

One major factor above all else stands out for me, Bryan Price. He was his pitching coach for arguably the best two years of his career. They know each other and well to boot. That trust would be instant. That in itself could be a factor on who they go get and how they perform.

Raisor
06-18-2010, 06:46 PM
Something to remember about trading for anyone with years left on a LTC is that they can demand a trade after the season.

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2010, 07:22 PM
Lance McAlister just reported on 1530 that the Reds traded Yonder Alonso, Travis Wood, and Chris Heisey to the Mariners for Cliff Lee and then came back on and said it was all a joke. What a horrible joke.

kaldaniels
06-18-2010, 08:20 PM
Lance McAlister just reported on 1530 that the Reds traded Yonder Alonso, Travis Wood, and Chris Heisey to the Mariners for Cliff Lee and then came back on and said it was all a joke. What a horrible joke.

Could someone (Lance) be sued for that? With all the online sportsbooks now you can't be doing that, among other reasons.

edabbs44
06-18-2010, 09:36 PM
I would do either of these deals in a heartbeat & BOTH if Bob upped the payroll.

Remember, its not Alonso & Mesoraco for Lee. its not Alonso & Mesoraco for Lee, a 1rst round pick & a sandwich pick.

if the team added a top starter and Volquez comes back i have a thought: rather than just shutting Mike Leake down when he reaches a certain point, instead move him to the pen when Volquez comes back.

1st rounder is not guaranteed. If the team's pick is top 15 it turns into a second rounder. There was also the Yankees CC/Teix and Burnett debacle.

Either way you get 2 picks, but that 1st rounder isn't guaranteed.

fearofpopvol1
06-18-2010, 10:17 PM
Could someone (Lance) be sued for that? With all the online sportsbooks now you can't be doing that, among other reasons.

Not likely. But he could be punished and should be. If this were April Fools, that would be a different scenario.

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2010, 10:30 PM
From Mark Sheldon:


*The Reds are facing LHP Cliff Lee Friday. A free agent at season's end with a struggling Seattle club, Lee is going to be a prime cog in the wheel of trade rumors this summer. Some outlets have already speculated that Cincinnati could be a fit because the club is contending and has a depth of prospects.

"We haven't discussed it," Jocketty said of Lee. "We'll do what we can to improve our club. We're looking at pitching. I don't know how many bullets we're going to have, so we'll have to be careful how we use them. With Volquez coming back and Chapman -- Wood is still down there and pitching well, and Maloney."


http://marksheldon.mlblogs.com/archives/2010/06/volquez_getting_close.html

Benihana
06-19-2010, 06:22 PM
From Ken Rosenthal via MLBTR:


# While many in the industry expect the club to be players for Cliff Lee, their officials are telling teams that they have other priorities. Their greater need is at third base while they may also shop for bullpen help.
# Speaking of Lee, Seattle is telling clubs that they want young hitters in return for the ace. It's a desire that could be a hurdle for several interested clubs. The Mets, for example, wouldn't part with Ike Davis in order to land the hurler on a rental. Meanwhile, the Dodgers wouldn't want to give up Matt Kemp or James Loney.
# Rosenthal adds that the Dodgers may have a hard time landing the elite starter that they seek. The Astros are looking for financial relief and top prospects in return for Roy Oswalt. Pulling off a deal for Dan Haren of the Diamondbacks could prove to be difficult as Arizona likely doesn't want to trade him within the division.

Looks like Seattle may not get a better offer for Lee than Alonso and one of Mesoraco/Francisco/Heisey.

Let the Rangers and the Dodgers fight over Oswalt. Haren, Carmona, and possibly Webb would be good back-up options, should we not be able to afford Lee.

Get 'er done Walt!

kaldaniels
06-19-2010, 06:33 PM
From Ken Rosenthal via MLBTR:



Looks like Seattle may not get a better offer for Lee than Alonso and one of Mesoraco/Francisco/Heisey.

Let the Rangers and the Dodgers fight over Oswalt. Haren, Carmona, and possibly Webb would be good back-up options, should we not be able to afford Lee.

Get 'er done Walt!

Funny you mention Webb...I've been thinking that he is flying under the radar (cause of the injury of course)...I'm thinking stay tuned because he could be a difference maker to someone come Sept.

fearofpopvol1
06-19-2010, 08:37 PM
From Ken Rosenthal via MLBTR:



Looks like Seattle may not get a better offer for Lee than Alonso and one of Mesoraco/Francisco/Heisey.

Let the Rangers and the Dodgers fight over Oswalt. Haren, Carmona, and possibly Webb would be good back-up options, should we not be able to afford Lee.

Get 'er done Walt!

I really think Alonso and Mesoraco is just too much for half a season. Heck, I don't like the idea of trading either of them for half a season. Now if it were Haren, that might be more appealing.

Benihana
06-19-2010, 09:02 PM
I really think Alonso and Mesoraco is just too much for half a season. Heck, I don't like the idea of trading either of them for half a season. Now if it were Haren, that might be more appealing.

Even with the two comp picks that he'll bring in one of the deeper drafts in years?

I wouldn't have much of a problem trading two guys with sub .800 career OPS, neither one of which are plus defenders (one of which doesn't have anywhere to play for the big club) for one of the best pitchers in baseball in the middle of the club's first pennant chase in a decade, especially if you get the picks after the season.

_Sir_Charles_
06-19-2010, 09:20 PM
Are we really in need of a starting pitcher? Homer & Edinson both come back soon. We've still got Wood & Maloney laying in the wings and we've still got LeCure. In my opinion, the LAST thing we need is starting pitching. Now if we make a deal that brings in a top notch starter where we deal away a starter...then maybe. But if we're dealing for pitching right now, it should be for the pen.

And these Alonso/Mesaraco for a few months of Lee is just silly IMO. Overpaying beyond belief from my point of view.

Cedric
06-19-2010, 09:21 PM
I really think Alonso and Mesoraco is just too much for half a season. Heck, I don't like the idea of trading either of them for half a season. Now if it were Haren, that might be more appealing.

I bet you a nickel Walt would drive Mes and Alonso to Seattle if that was all it took to get Cliff Lee.

_Sir_Charles_
06-19-2010, 09:30 PM
Are we talking about the same Mesaraco & Alonso I'm thinking of? The Yonder who hasn't gotten to showcase his power yet due to the recovery from a broken bone? The Devin who's finally gotten the defensive portion of the game down and is now able to focus on hitting and it's showing?

I'm not hesitant to trade either guy for the right deal, but trading BOTH of them for 20 or so games from Cliff Lee? We should be able to get him for less than that IMO. A LOT less than that. Put a starting pitcher in the deal from our end and then add on as needed. But any deal bringing Lee over has to have us jettison a pitcher back the other way or there's not room.

Cedric
06-19-2010, 09:34 PM
Are we talking about the same Mesaraco & Alonso I'm thinking of? The Yonder who hasn't gotten to showcase his power yet due to the recovery from a broken bone? The Devin who's finally gotten the defensive portion of the game down and is now able to focus on hitting and it's showing?

I'm not hesitant to trade either guy for the right deal, but trading BOTH of them for 20 or so games from Cliff Lee? We should be able to get him for less than that IMO. A LOT less than that. Put a starting pitcher in the deal from our end and then add on as needed. But any deal bringing Lee over has to have us jettison a pitcher back the other way or there's not room.

There's not room in this bad rotation for one of the five best pitchers in baseball? Makes no sense to me.

_Sir_Charles_
06-19-2010, 09:40 PM
There's not room in this bad rotation for one of the five best pitchers in baseball? Makes no sense to me.

Well, I disagree with the "bad rotation" comment. Leake, Arroyo, Cueto have all been excellent, Homer's shown flashes of brilliance too (and Volquez comes back shortly too). But of course we would make room. But who? Do you bump Harang? To where? Do you bump Homer or Edinson? Of the 3, Edinson's the best fit for the pen, but he's also the most promising for a starters role too. I don't think Aaron or Homer help us in the pen...they're not programmed like relievers in terms of how they warm up.

I'm only saying that if we deal for a STARTER, we should deal AWAY a starter to get it done.

nate
06-19-2010, 11:01 PM
Are we really in need of a starting pitcher?

No.

We're in need of two starting pitchers.



Homer & Edinson both come back soon. We've still got Wood & Maloney laying in the wings and we've still got LeCure.

None of those options really give me confidence.


In my opinion, the LAST thing we need is starting pitching. Now if we make a deal that brings in a top notch starter where we deal away a starter...then maybe. But if we're dealing for pitching right now, it should be for the pen.

Wouldn't it be great if we didn't have to hope our pitching would rebound and instead, know that it would be great?


And these Alonso/Mesaraco for a few months of Lee is just silly IMO. Overpaying beyond belief from my point of view.

That would be a steal.

TheNext44
06-19-2010, 11:18 PM
Adding Lee makes the Reds almost a certainty to make the playoffs. I know the Reds have a good future ahead, but history has shown that you never know how big or small you window of opportunity is. A small market team needs to take advantage of a contending year, you never know when the next one will come.

Alonso and Meseraco each have about 50/50 shot of being impact players in the majors. I'd hesitate to give up Meseraco, only because good catchers are hard to find, but I would still give him up to for a solid chance to make the playoffs this year.

When you factor in that the Reds will probably get at least one player back who is a good a prospect as Alonso or Meseraco when Lee signs with someone else next season, I think it's a no brainer.

But I doubt that Seattle will take that, since they can get almost as good as that just by letting him walk. A third or fourth player needs to be included. I personally would keep Meseraco and add Francisco or Frazier and two of the young relievers the Reds have in the system.

Cedric
06-19-2010, 11:45 PM
Adding Lee makes the Reds almost a certainty to make the playoffs. I know the Reds have a good future ahead, but history has shown that you never know how big or small you window of opportunity is. A small market team needs to take advantage of a contending year, you never know when the next one will come.

Alonso and Meseraco each have about 50/50 shot of being impact players in the majors. I'd hesitate to give up Meseraco, only because good catchers are hard to find, but I would still give him up to for a solid chance to make the playoffs this year.

When you factor in that the Reds will probably get at least one player back who is a good a prospect as Alonso or Meseraco when Lee signs with someone else next season, I think it's a no brainer.

But I doubt that Seattle will take that, since they can get almost as good as that just by letting him walk. A third or fourth player needs to be included. I personally would keep Meseraco and add Francisco or Frazier and two of the young relievers the Reds have in the system.

50/50 shot at being impact players? Maybe 25% at best for both. It's bad odds for sure.

Benihana
06-20-2010, 12:31 AM
Hmmm, half the thread hates it and half the thread loves it.

Sounds like a pretty fair trade to me.

marcshoe
06-20-2010, 12:35 AM
Because of this particular moment in time for the Reds, because the team is ready to turn a corner, and Cliff Lee's impact this year could cause a sea change for the way this franchise is viewed and views itself, because the two extra picks could prove to be of near equal value to Alonso and Mesaraco, I'd go for it, which marks a change in my thinking. Most likely watching Lee last night made me realize what a difference he could make.

fearofpopvol1
06-20-2010, 01:04 AM
Even with the two comp picks that he'll bring in one of the deeper drafts in years?

I wouldn't have much of a problem trading two guys with sub .800 career OPS, neither one of which are plus defenders (one of which doesn't have anywhere to play for the big club) for one of the best pitchers in baseball in the middle of the club's first pennant chase in a decade, especially if you get the picks after the season.

I guess with next year's draft it may not be as bad...but the Reds would be trading 2 1st round top 10 picks. It seems a little much. I'd be more comfortable with 1 of the 2 and someone else. Those are quite possibly the 2 best prospects the Reds have in the upper minors not named Chapman.

forfreelin04
06-20-2010, 02:18 AM
Hmmm, half the thread hates it and half the thread loves it.

Sounds like a pretty fair trade to me.

Put me down for loves it.

This team needs a jumpstart and obviously the big splash needs to take place around the deadline, but I'd like to see Walt improve the bullpen now. I know they want to audition blah blah. But I think that's Chris Welsh speak for the bullpen is awful and theres more holes than arms to fill them.

Regardless if Lee, Oswalt, Haren etc are traded for, the Reds still need bullpen help to get into the playoffs IMO. I'd like to see them make a statement and be that team that starts the trading rather than gets in too late. They need a flamethrower or a stopper in the 7th and 8th innings. This team doesn't have an innings eater save Arroyo and their going to need that stopper ASAP. Especially in this stretch run against good NL teams before the break. (Many of those games being away from GABP)

My biggest fear is that they will fall into a tailspin, this road trip could be deafening in that regard if this keeps up. Lee and King Felix aside, we've seen this sort of play on the West Coast before. Not to mention, they played poorly at home in that long stretch of games. The last time they won a series is now two weeks ago. (Washington) I hope Walt can turn the tide with a trade that bolsters the bullpen and gives Dusty and the team a boost of confidence.

In regards to trading for rentals at the expense of blue chip prospects, I'm all for it. Having two number one draft pick catchers is a commodity so IMO Meso will be gone if the Reds stay around till the deadline. I have no problem with this. Catching is a great skill but its hard to break in that position in the big leagues and its even harder to have above average success. Hanigan seems to be a worthy candidate for the next 4 years or so. Let's let him be the number 1 guy and take our chances on the 2010 draft pick being in the bigs by that fourth or even third year.

In regards to Alonso, I think you hold onto him until your sure that ACE can be obtained for a rental. Anything less than an ace would be foolish.

TRF
06-21-2010, 10:39 AM
I have to say, if you can get Cliff Lee for Alonso and ANYONE not named Chapman or Yorman, you do it. Those are my two untouchables. I'd throw in Harang even though he's starting to come around a bit, just so Seattle won't have to eat any salary.

Harang, Alonso and Valaika/Francisco/Frazier/Dorn/Sappelt

I'd be fine with it.

edabbs44
06-21-2010, 10:44 AM
I have to say, if you can get Cliff Lee for Alonso and ANYONE not named Chapman or Yorman, you do it. Those are my two untouchables. I'd throw in Harang even though he's starting to come around a bit, just so Seattle won't have to eat any salary.

Harang, Alonso and Valaika/Francisco/Frazier/Dorn/Sappelt

I'd be fine with it.

Not sure that will get it done, especially with Harang making a lot more than Lee.

The Reds don't have that top minor leaguer available outside of Chapman. They'll need to give up at least 2 "name" prospects, at least "name" to us.

TRF
06-21-2010, 11:41 AM
Then add cash, make it payroll neutral for the M's. Yonder and any of those on the list certainly fit the bill offensively for the M's. Add Harang, and Bedard in a month or so (last I heard) and their rotation is decent enough.

Can't hurt to ask.

edabbs44
06-21-2010, 11:46 AM
Then add cash, make it payroll neutral for the M's. Yonder and any of those on the list certainly fit the bill offensively for the M's. Add Harang, and Bedard in a month or so (last I heard) and their rotation is decent enough.

Can't hurt to ask.

I think the Ms will be looking for an impact minor leaguer to be involved. Outside of Chapman, the Reds don't really have that kind of guy. They can provide a few middle tier guys (as of right now), but they don't have the headliner like LaPorta was at the time of the CC trade.

Benihana
06-21-2010, 11:49 AM
Then add cash, make it payroll neutral for the M's. Yonder and any of those on the list certainly fit the bill offensively for the M's. Add Harang, and Bedard in a month or so (last I heard) and their rotation is decent enough.

Can't hurt to ask.

I don't think the M's would have any interest in Harang, or even a payroll-neutral trade. I think they would want to shed Lee's salary and get top (hitting) prospects in return. That's why I think it would take Alonso and Mez.

The D'backs on the other hand want young arms if they are going to consider dealing Haren or Webb. I believe it would take something like an offer of Bailey, Wood, and Boxberger to even get their attention for Haren. Would that be something you guys would consider?

Webb might be able to be had for considerably less given he's a FA at the end of the season (and I'm not sure he will garner any draft pick compensation.) If he comes back fairly effective, I'd see if we couldn't pry him away for Wood and some lesser arms (Klinker, Sulbaran, etc.)

fearofpopvol1
06-21-2010, 02:39 PM
Just saw on Sportscenter that the Twins plan to make a play for Lee.

And they have the prospects to get it done.

Benihana
06-21-2010, 03:30 PM
Just saw on Sportscenter that the Twins plan to make a play for Lee.

And they have the prospects to get it done.

Yep, Wilson Ramos and Jesus Montero >>> Mesoraco

The question is, will the Twins (or Yankees) be willing to add another piece that is equal to or better than Alonso? If so, we won't be seeing Lee in Cincinnati Red.

Homer Bailey
06-21-2010, 07:06 PM
Not really the purpose of this thread, but I don't get why people think Chapman has trade value. Couldn't a team have just signed him for his price? Why would they trade for him AND THEN pay him?

edabbs44
06-21-2010, 07:40 PM
Not really the purpose of this thread, but I don't get why people think Chapman has trade value. Couldn't a team have just signed him for his price? Why would they trade for him AND THEN pay him?

Less risk now that he's shown his potential in the pros? But it is a valid point. Maybe Cincy would need to throw in a few scheckles to get it done.

kaldaniels
06-21-2010, 07:42 PM
Not really the purpose of this thread, but I don't get why people think Chapman has trade value. Couldn't a team have just signed him for his price? Why would they trade for him AND THEN pay him?

Chapman would have trade value if shopped. His stock (not his performance, but his stock) has risen since the signing. I'm sure there are many teams out there who would love to take him and his contract off our hands.

edabbs44
06-22-2010, 09:50 AM
MLBTR is reporting that the Zona GM said that he will need "very significant players" in return for his stars.

Cross Haren off the list for now.