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Benihana
06-14-2010, 07:43 PM
Orlando Cabrera's defense and low OBP has been talked about a lot around these parts. What hasn't been talked about is his knack for playing on winning teams.

He has been in the playoffs every year except one since 2004, and that has been with four different organizations. Pretty remarkable feat IMO. Could be pure coincidence, or could be fate- let's just hope the Reds can continue the streak this year. So far so good...

RedEye
06-14-2010, 07:58 PM
Pure coincidence.

pedro
06-14-2010, 08:24 PM
Cabrera's a good baseball player and by all accounts the kind of guy who is both a good teammate and the type of guy who really likes to win. These things help. I know his range is poor at this point and he's not the most adept hitter but I do feel that he's been a positive stabilizing force on the Reds this year and I have no doubt that both his play and his demeanor were assets to the teams he played on in the past. Is there some luck and good fortune involved? Certainly. But I wouldn't go so far as to call it "pure coincidence".

Homer Bailey
06-14-2010, 08:47 PM
Cabrera's a good baseball player and by all accounts the kind of guy who is both a good teammate and the type of guy who really likes to win. These things help. I know his range is poor at this point and he's not the most adept hitter but I do feel that he's been a positive stabilizing force on the Reds this year and I have no doubt that both his play and his demeanor were assets to the teams he played on in the past. Is there some luck and good fortune involved? Certainly. But I wouldn't go so far as to call it "pure coincidence".

Co-sign.

Ghosts of 1990
06-14-2010, 09:26 PM
Cairo = lucky charm

RedEye
06-14-2010, 10:53 PM
Cabrera's a good baseball player and by all accounts the kind of guy who is both a good teammate and the type of guy who really likes to win. These things help. I know his range is poor at this point and he's not the most adept hitter but I do feel that he's been a positive stabilizing force on the Reds this year and I have no doubt that both his play and his demeanor were assets to the teams he played on in the past. Is there some luck and good fortune involved? Certainly. But I wouldn't go so far as to call it "pure coincidence".

Okay. Maybe "largely coincidence" is a better expression. But Cabrera's so-called "stabilizing force" is nothing compared with the massive, quantifiable improvements brought to the lineup in Rolen, the continued emergence of a star in Votto, the maturation of two young OFs in Bruce and Stubbs, and the timely hitting of a low-rent vet in Gomes.

Chip R
06-14-2010, 11:06 PM
Cabrera's a good baseball player and by all accounts the kind of guy who is both a good teammate and the type of guy who really likes to win. These things help. I know his range is poor at this point and he's not the most adept hitter but I do feel that he's been a positive stabilizing force on the Reds this year and I have no doubt that both his play and his demeanor were assets to the teams he played on in the past. Is there some luck and good fortune involved? Certainly. But I wouldn't go so far as to call it "pure coincidence".

His range seems to have improved as the season has gone on. In April he couldn't get to a ball 2 steps to his right or left. Now he's getting to those balls in the hole. He also has a great arm. He brings leadership to the ball club and in the past, he has played on a lot of winning teams. I agree that it's not a coincidence.

pedro
06-14-2010, 11:51 PM
Okay. Maybe "largely coincidence" is a better expression. But Cabrera's so-called "stabilizing force" is nothing compared with the massive, quantifiable improvements brought to the lineup in Rolen, the continued emergence of a star in Votto, the maturation of two young OFs in Bruce and Stubbs, and the timely hitting of a low-rent vet in Gomes.

I think those are all fair points I just think a lot of times people get caught up in merely UZR and OPS/OBP and forget that there are a lot of things that happen on the field that aren't captured in those two metrics.

To me, Rolen's been the heart of this team and Stubbs has been more important than his statline implies, but I do think having a vet like Cabrera to reenforce the teams professionalism has really helped. I also think the complete balls to the wall way which Gomes plays has been infectious. That guy doesn't have a slacker bone in his body.

Mario-Rijo
06-15-2010, 02:58 AM
I think those are all fair points I just think a lot of times people get caught up in merely UZR and OPS/OBP and forget that there are a lot of things that happen on the field that aren't captured in those two metrics.

To me, Rolen's been the heart of this team and Stubbs has been more important than his statline implies, but I do think having a vet like Cabrera to reenforce the teams professionalism has really helped. I also think the complete balls to the wall way which Gomes plays has been infectious. That guy doesn't have a slacker bone in his body.

Yeah absolutely with you 100% Pedro. OCab can be a bit to aggressive at the plate at times which can be annoying but he more than makes up for it with his knack for driving in runs or even better his absolute refusal to give in at the plate especially with ducks on the pond. He may not score as many runs as we would like when it's all said and done but he'll balance it out well with runs driven in. On defense he's a bit below average but again he never gives up on a play and sometimes that makes up for his lack of range and arm. However where he really shines is his makeup which is a key part of this club, he isn't afraid to let someone know when they screwed up and demands everyone goes out there and gives 110%. I have no proof that this has helped but I believe it has. All things considered I believe he has been an extremely wise addition. I do wish from time to time Paul Janish would get a start in his place when Pauls glove is most needed but ya can't have it all.

edabbs44
06-15-2010, 06:59 AM
For me, I can say that I am happy he was signed and is playing for this team. I am sure that his effect on this team goes beyond te popular statistics.

bucksfan2
06-15-2010, 08:09 AM
For me, I can say that I am happy he was signed and is playing for this team. I am sure that his effect on this team goes beyond te popular statistics.

I heard multiple reports in the spring about the Reds and their leadership. They said Rolen was a very quite leader. He went about his way, working hard, showing the young players how to address the game of baseball. On the other hand Cabrera was a more vocal leader. He wasn't afraid to get in peoples face. He wouldn't shy away from calling a player onto the carpet.

In a game in which 25 separate personalities have to mesh in order to create a winning environment I am glad Cabrera is one of those 25 guys.

OnBaseMachine
06-19-2010, 11:20 AM
FWIW, Cabrera is now hitting just .255/.294/.350 - .644 while playing well below average defense at SS. With his defense, he needs to OPS in the .700's at least. The Reds really need an upgrade at SS, IMO. I would love to see the Reds make a run at Stephen Drew.

westofyou
06-19-2010, 11:26 AM
FWIW, Cabrera is now hitting just .255/.294/.350 - .644 while playing well below average defense at SS. With his defense, he needs to OPS in the .700's at least. The Reds really need an upgrade at SS, IMO. I would love to see the Reds make a run at Stephen Drew.

OC is the SS this year, maybe next year they make a run at someone, maybe they give the job to Janish if he all of the sudden gets popeyes forearms.

But despite a .644 OPS (and if the Reds lead the league in hitting should we still expect every guy on the team to be stud with a bat?) and limited range he's entrenched on a team that is in the hunt, thus no one is going to replace him despite metrics, any thought to the contrary fails to focus on the parts of the club that are hurting the team in a more pressing manner, and that would be sustaining the pitching.

OnBaseMachine
06-19-2010, 11:34 AM
There's no doubt the pitching has been the Reds biggest problem. I'm on the Cliff Lee/Roy Oswalt/Dan Haren to the Reds bandwagon. One of those three guys would go a long way towards shoring up the Reds pitching problems. With that said, the defense (especially SS) hasn't exactly helped the Reds pitching this season. As of today, the Reds team DER is .681, which ranks 24th in the major leagues. Last season the Reds were 4th in the majors with a .705 DER. The defense was supposed to be one of the strong points this season but so far it's been a huge disappointment.

Spring~Fields
06-19-2010, 12:00 PM
FWIW, Cabrera is now hitting just .255/.294/.350 - .644 while playing well below average defense at SS. With his defense, he needs to OPS in the .700's at least. The Reds really need an upgrade at SS, IMO. I would love to see the Reds make a run at Stephen Drew.

During the off season, wasn’t that what all the hand wringing and cries for an upgrade at short stop was all about, that Janish with his outstanding defense, might not be able to carry and OPS of .700? Now there is a short stop with less than outstanding defense batting below .700 OPS, leading off no less. :confused:


With that said, the defense (especially SS) hasn't exactly helped the Reds pitching this season. As of today, the Reds team DER is .681, which ranks 24th in the major leagues. Last season the Reds were 4th in the majors with a .705 DER. The defense was supposed to be one of the strong points this season but so far it's been a huge disappointment.

westofyou
06-19-2010, 12:02 PM
The defense was supposed to be one of the strong points this season but so far it's been a huge disappointment.

Huge?

After a decade of plodding defense the current state of the defense is fine, not perfect, but not the end of the world...only 11 unearned runs so far, the Nat have given up 39... THAT'S a bad defense.

OnBaseMachine
06-19-2010, 12:28 PM
Huge?

After a decade of plodding defense the current state of the defense is fine, not perfect, but not the end of the world...only 11 unearned runs so far, the Nat have given up 39... THAT'S a bad defense.

It's been a huge disappointment for me. I thought the addition of Scott Rolen and Drew Stubbs would make this a top 3 defense. Instead, they're actually closer to bottom 3 based on DER.

pedro
06-19-2010, 12:33 PM
It's been a huge disappointment for me. I thought the addition of Scott Rolen and Drew Stubbs would make this a top 3 defense. Instead, they're actually closer to bottom 3 based on DER.

Standard BABIP ranges notwithstanding I think crappy pitching has been as much a factor in the Reds poor DER as has Orlando Cabrera.

RedsManRick
06-19-2010, 12:49 PM
Standard BABIP ranges notwithstanding I think crappy pitching has been as much a factor in the Reds poor DER as has Orlando Cabrera.

If the pitching has been worse this year compared to last, it's not really showing up in the numbers:


K/9 BB/9 HR/9 LD% GB% FB% BABIP ERA FIP xFIP
2010 6.8 3.6 0.94 20.2 42.9 36.9 .316 4.56 4.30 4.52
2009 6.6 3.6 1.16 19.1 42.1 38.9 .288 4.18 4.63 4.57

0.9 difference in LD%. 28 point difference in BABIP. The story there seems to be more about defense than pitching insofar as we're able to tell.

nate
06-19-2010, 12:49 PM
Standard BABIP ranges notwithstanding I think crappy pitching has been as much a factor in the Reds poor DER as has Orlando Cabrera.

If those two factors are equal, it would seem the best bang for buck improvement comes by replacing the one player who plays every day.

pedro
06-19-2010, 12:59 PM
If the pitching has been worse this year compared to last, it's not really showing up in the numbers:


K/9 BB/9 HR/9 LD% GB% FB% BABIP ERA FIP xFIP
2010 6.8 3.6 0.94 20.2 42.9 36.9 .316 4.56 4.30 4.52
2009 6.6 3.6 1.16 19.1 42.1 38.9 .288 4.18 4.63 4.57

0.9 difference in LD%. 28 point difference in BABIP. The story there seems to be more about defense than pitching insofar as we're able to tell.

The difference in BABIP seems to be the biggest factor and while Cabrera's range is obviously not good I have to wonder how much of that .028 difference is due to just normal variance and how much is due to Cabrera himself. I guess you'd have to figure out how many of the total # of balls in play have been hit within his zone and mock up what the difference would be with Janish or someone else in there.

pedro
06-19-2010, 01:00 PM
If those two factors are equal, it would seem the best bang for buck improvement comes by replacing the one player who plays every day.

If one didn't think that Janish would OPS sub .600 yes.

nate
06-19-2010, 01:09 PM
If one didn't think that Janish would OPS sub .600 yes.

I think it's likely that Janish's glove more than makes up for the (increasingly smaller) difference between his bat and O-Cab's.

Besides, isn't O-Cab playing hurt? Why don't give him a break to get better?

nate
06-19-2010, 01:18 PM
The difference in BABIP seems to be the biggest factor and while Cabrera's range is obviously not good I have to wonder how much of that .028 difference is due to just normal variance and how much is due to Cabrera himself. I guess you'd have to figure out how many of the total # of balls in play have been hit within his zone and mock up what the difference would be with Janish or someone else in there.

I'm not sure if I'm reading this (http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Reds&pos=ss&stats=fld&qual=0&type=1&season=2010&month=0) right but it looks like he's had 163 balls in zone and made 130 plays. He's made 10 out of zone plays.

Just some quick calculation reveals that so far this year, the average SS misses 29 balls so O-Cab is 4 balls under in that regard. However, the average SS also makes 24 OOZ plays to O-Cab's 10.

pedro
06-19-2010, 01:19 PM
I think it's likely that Janish's glove more than makes up for the (increasingly smaller) difference between his bat and O-Cab's.

Besides, isn't O-Cab playing hurt? Why don't give him a break to get better?

I'm all for giving Cabrera a rest if he is hurt.

pedro
06-19-2010, 01:21 PM
I'm not sure if I'm reading this (http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Reds&pos=ss&stats=fld&qual=0&type=1&season=2010&month=0) right but it looks like he's had 163 balls in zone and made 130 plays. He's made 10 out of zone plays.

Just some quick calculation reveals that so far this year, the average SS misses 29 balls so O-Cab is 4 balls under in that regard. However, the average SS also makes 24 OOZ plays to O-Cab's 10.

I'd be curious to do the math to figure out what difference in total team DER that accounts for but I'm getting ready to head to Seattle to see the Reds for the first time since 2007 so it'll have to wait.

OnBaseMachine
06-19-2010, 01:34 PM
I'm getting ready to head to Seattle to see the Reds for the first time since 2007 so it'll have to wait.

Hope ya have fun. It sucks you missed Cueto and Leake.

Raisor
06-19-2010, 01:35 PM
Orlando is down to .263 .305 .346 .652 in the leadoff spot and .255 .294 .350 .644 overall.

If his ankle really has been hurt for a month, it's really hurt his offense, not that he was a juggernaut in the first place.
Time to give Janish more work. Bat him 8th with Bruce leading off.

mth123
06-19-2010, 01:52 PM
I wanted Reid Brignac and still do. The Reds would never supplant Cabrera for a kid IMO. I'm not a Janish fan. I'd take Cabrera of the guys currently available.

nemesis
06-19-2010, 01:58 PM
FWIW, Cabrera is now hitting just .255/.294/.350 - .644 while playing well below average defense at SS. With his defense, he needs to OPS in the .700's at least. The Reds really need an upgrade at SS, IMO. I would love to see the Reds make a run at Stephen Drew.

How much of the farm system would you have to unload for both?

Haren would require Bailey and a couple mid level prospects.

Drew would require at least Cozart, Wood and ?

Cabrera and Harang would have to be moved to ARZ to create payroll space. How much cash would the Reds have to ship? The buyouts?

RedsManRick
06-19-2010, 02:14 PM
The difference in BABIP seems to be the biggest factor and while Cabrera's range is obviously not good I have to wonder how much of that .028 difference is due to just normal variance and how much is due to Cabrera himself. I guess you'd have to figure out how many of the total # of balls in play have been hit within his zone and mock up what the difference would be with Janish or someone else in there.

Well, UZR data can give us a decent idea. OCab is interesting in so far as he went from good to bad pretty quickly - I believe he had some injury issues last year. In any event, UZR includes RZR - the rate each guy makes a play on balls in his zone.

Using 3 years of data, the rate at which Janish has turned balls in his zone in to outs would have meant 10 or 11 more outs this year on balls in his zone than Cabrera. And Based on the OOZ/Inn rates, he would have made 6 more plays out of zone.

Obviously those aren't "real" numbers, just estimates. But if we subtract those 17 hits from the Reds pitchers totals, the team BABIP drops to .308. Clearly OCab not the only contributor to the Reds defense issues, and on balance, he's not been horrible. But the difference between him and Janish defensively is not minor. As poorly as Cabrera has been hitting, if you made him Janish's equal in the field and instead took away 17 singles, he'd be hitting under .200. People have been saying that Janish's glove doesn't make up for his bat. But we could very easily say the inverse about Cabrera in comparsion.



Name Team Inn BIZ Plays RZR OOZ OOZ/Inn DPR RngR ErrR UZR
OCab 2008 CHW 1389 422 352 0.83 57 0.04 0.5 10.4 3.4 14.3
OCab 2009 --- 1388 439 335 0.76 35 0.03 -1.6 -10.7 -1.3 -13.6
OCab 2010 MIN 554 163 130 0.80 11 0.02 0.3 -3.1 1.0 -1.7
OCab 08-10 3331 1024 817 0.80 103 0.03 -0.8 -3.4 3.1 - 1.0

Janish 2008 CIN 204 73 62 0.85 4 0.02 -0.3 -1.2 0.0 -1.4
Janish 2009 CIN 592 194 167 0.86 20 0.03 0.8 6.5 3.4 10.7
Janish 2010 CIN 54 16 15 0.94 2 0.04 0.1 0.6 0.5 1.1
Janish 08-10 850 283 244 0.86 26 0.03 0.6 5.9 3.9 10.4

Name Team Inn BIZ Plays RZR OOZ OOZ/Inn DPR RngR ErrR UZR
Alexei Ramirez CHW 559 187 160 0.86 24 0.04 0.8 3.7 -1.7 2.8
Brendan Ryan STL 442 142 121 0.85 28 0.06 0.3 0.4 -0.2 0.4
Troy Tulowitzki COL 539 173 145 0.84 27 0.05 0.7 -1.7 1.6 0.6
Marco Scutaro BOS 589 165 138 0.84 31 0.05 0.3 3.9 -0.8 3.5
Elvis Andrus TEX 569 158 132 0.84 28 0.05 0.5 1.5 0.3 2.2
Cliff Penningto OAK 556 193 161 0.83 20 0.04 0.8 -0.3 1.2 1.7
Erick Aybar LAA 562 161 134 0.83 30 0.05 -1.3 -1.0 -1.2 -3.6
Alcides Escobar MIL 501 154 128 0.83 21 0.04 0.1 0.8 -1.2 -0.3
Yunel Escobar ATL 475 157 129 0.82 43 0.09 0.0 1.7 0.3 2.0
Ian Desmond WSN 503 174 142 0.82 22 0.04 0.0 7.6 -3.0 4.6
Cesar Izturis BAL 495 134 109 0.81 18 0.04 -0.3 -1.7 1.6 -0.4
Jose Reyes NYM 556 142 115 0.81 22 0.04 0.1 -0.7 1.2 0.6
Jerry Hairston SDP 378 115 93 0.81 22 0.06 -0.4 0.1 0.6 0.3
Ronny Cedeno PIT 511 159 128 0.81 27 0.05 -0.3 4.6 0.5 4.7
Derek Jeter NYY 542 147 118 0.80 19 0.04 0.6 0.2 1.4 2.2
Alex Gonzalez TOR 573 201 161 0.80 34 0.06 0.8 -3.1 0.4 -1.9
Orlando Cabrera CIN 554 163 130 0.80 11 0.02 0.3 -3.1 1.0 -1.7
Yuniesky Betanc KCR 561 158 126 0.80 25 0.04 -1.0 -1.5 -0.5 -2.9
Juan Uribe SFG 389 100 78 0.78 11 0.03 -0.1 -2.5 0.3 -2.3
Jason Bartlett TBR 419 109 85 0.78 16 0.04 -2.0 -1.3 -0.4 -3.7
Hanley Ramirez FLA 563 155 119 0.77 27 0.05 -0.7 -2.2 0.8 -2.2
Tommy Manzella HOU 466 152 116 0.76 21 0.05 0.0 0.4 -1.6 -1.2
Stephen Drew ARI 519 141 104 0.74 32 0.06 -0.3 -1.0 1.8 0.5

edit -- I just realized I used OCab's 2010 OOZ data -- so feel free to exclude that difference if you want to stick with the 3 year averages. The point still stands. The Reds got better defense from SS last year than they are getting this year and OCab's poor performance at the plate doesn't justify the downgrade.

pedro
06-19-2010, 02:17 PM
Well, UZR data can give us a decent idea. OCab is interesting in so far as he went from good to bad pretty quickly - I believe he had some injury issues last year. In any event, UZR includes RZR - the rate each guy makes a play on balls in his zone.

Using 3 years of data, the rate at which Janish has turned balls in his zone in to outs would have meant 10 or 11 more outs this year on balls in his zone than Cabrera. And Based on the OOZ/Inn rates, he would have made 6 more plays out of zone.

Obviously those aren't "real" numbers, just estimates. But if we subtract those 17 hits from the Reds pitchers totals, the team BABIP drops to .308. Clearly OCab not the only contributor to the Reds defense issues, and on balance, he's not been horrible. But the difference between him and Janish defensively is not minor. As poorly as Cabrera has been hitting, if you made him Janish's equal in the field and instead took away 17 singles, he'd be hitting under .200. People have been saying that Janish's glove doesn't make up for his bat. But we could very easily say the inverse about Cabrera in comparsion.



Name Team Inn BIZ Plays RZR OOZ OOZ/Inn DPR RngR ErrR UZR
OCab 2008 CHW 1389 422 352 0.83 57 0.04 0.5 10.4 3.4 14.3
OCab 2009 --- 1388 439 335 0.76 35 0.03 -1.6 -10.7 -1.3 -13.6
OCab 2010 MIN 554 163 130 0.80 11 0.02 0.3 -3.1 1.0 -1.7
OCab 08-10 3331 1024 817 0.8 103 0.03 -0.8 -3.4 3.1 - 1.0

Janish 2008 CIN 204 73 62 0.85 4 0.02 -0.3 -1.2 0.0 -1.4
Janish 2009 CIN 592 194 167 0.86 20 0.03 0.8 6.5 3.4 10.7
Janish 2010 CIN 54 16 15 0.94 2 0.04 0.1 0.6 0.5 1.1
Janish 08-10 850 283 244 0.86 26 0.03 0.6 5.9 3.9 10.4

Name Team Inn BIZ Plays RZR OOZ OOZ/Inn DPR RngR ErrR UZR
Alexei Ramirez CHW 559 187 160 0.86 24 0.04 0.8 3.7 -1.7 2.8
Brendan Ryan STL 442 142 121 0.85 28 0.06 0.3 0.4 -0.2 0.4
Troy Tulowitzki COL 539 173 145 0.84 27 0.05 0.7 -1.7 1.6 0.6
Marco Scutaro BOS 589 165 138 0.84 31 0.05 0.3 3.9 -0.8 3.5
Elvis Andrus TEX 569 158 132 0.84 28 0.05 0.5 1.5 0.3 2.2
Cliff Penningto OAK 556 193 161 0.83 20 0.04 0.8 -0.3 1.2 1.7
Erick Aybar LAA 562 161 134 0.83 30 0.05 -1.3 -1.0 -1.2 -3.6
Alcides Escobar MIL 501 154 128 0.83 21 0.04 0.1 0.8 -1.2 -0.3
Yunel Escobar ATL 475 157 129 0.82 43 0.09 0.0 1.7 0.3 2.0
Ian Desmond WSN 503 174 142 0.82 22 0.04 0.0 7.6 -3.0 4.6
Cesar Izturis BAL 495 134 109 0.81 18 0.04 -0.3 -1.7 1.6 -0.4
Jose Reyes NYM 556 142 115 0.81 22 0.04 0.1 -0.7 1.2 0.6
Jerry Hairston SDP 378 115 93 0.81 22 0.06 -0.4 0.1 0.6 0.3
Ronny Cedeno PIT 511 159 128 0.81 27 0.05 -0.3 4.6 0.5 4.7
Derek Jeter NYY 542 147 118 0.80 19 0.04 0.6 0.2 1.4 2.2
Alex Gonzalez TOR 573 201 161 0.80 34 0.06 0.8 -3.1 0.4 -1.9
Orlando Cabrera CIN 554 163 130 0.80 11 0.02 0.3 -3.1 1.0 -1.7
Yuniesky Betanc KCR 561 158 126 0.80 25 0.04 -1.0 -1.5 -0.5 -2.9
Juan Uribe SFG 389 100 78 0.78 11 0.03 -0.1 -2.5 0.3 -2.3
Jason Bartlett TBR 419 109 85 0.78 16 0.04 -2.0 -1.3 -0.4 -3.7
Hanley Ramirez FLA 563 155 119 0.77 27 0.05 -0.7 -2.2 0.8 -2.2
Tommy Manzella HOU 466 152 116 0.76 21 0.05 0.0 0.4 -1.6 -1.2
Stephen Drew ARI 519 141 104 0.74 32 0.06 -0.3 -1.0 1.8 0.5

Thanks Rick.

OnBaseMachine
06-23-2010, 07:00 PM
I'm not trying to pile on Cabrera because I actually do like the guy, but he's been downright bad lately. After an 0-for-5 today, Cabrera is now hitting .238/.276/.327 - .604 OPS. If he was playing plus defense you could put up with that as long as he batted 8th in the lineup. In reality, he's playing below average defense and batting lead off. If his ankle is bothering him then the Reds need to place him on the DL and play Janish at SS and bat him 8th.

I'd like to see Jocketty kick the tires on Stephen Drew. It's hard to tell what the D-Backs would ask for in return but if he could be had for a reasonable deal (Alonso + Maloney or another prospect) I'd pull the trigger.

Spring~Fields
06-23-2010, 07:10 PM
OBM, Stubbs is hitting just as bad as Cabrera. Well, not quite but close enough for government work.

Either way, I would like to see Cabrera and Stubbs get a needed rest.

How does Baker attract and stay with these guys anyway. While other guys rot on the bench and then when they do get a little play, they are not sharp or in the groove from sitting too long and end up looking bad, playing into justifying Cabrera and Stubbs. :rolleyes:



Last Seven Days Season
Drew Stubbs .100 .182 .100 .282 Drew Stubbs .231 .306 .382 .688
Orlando Cabrera .077 .077 .077 .154 Orlando Cabrera .238 .276 .327 .604

Season
Chris Heisey .280 .368 .600 .968

http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/stats/batting/_/name/cin/cincinnati-reds

Ron Madden
06-24-2010, 03:30 AM
Is Orlando Cabrea the lucky charm?

Hell no! GAC's Avatar is the lucky charm. ;)

fearofpopvol1
06-28-2010, 12:59 AM
Season OPS..., .610. Dismal. He's had more ABs than anyone on the team not named Phillips. Why though??

Can he at least be batted 8th if he must play or 7th? I'd actually like to see Stubbs bat 2nd and Cabrera flip spots with him.

RedEye
06-28-2010, 07:27 AM
OBM, Stubbs is hitting just as bad as Cabrera. Well, not quite but close enough for government work.

Either way, I would like to see Cabrera and Stubbs get a needed rest.

How does Baker attract and stay with these guys anyway. While other guys rot on the bench and then when they do get a little play, they are not sharp or in the groove from sitting too long and end up looking bad, playing into justifying Cabrera and Stubbs. :rolleyes:



Last Seven Days Season
Drew Stubbs .100 .182 .100 .282 Drew Stubbs .231 .306 .382 .688
Orlando Cabrera .077 .077 .077 .154 Orlando Cabrera .238 .276 .327 .604

Season
Chris Heisey .280 .368 .600 .968

http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/stats/batting/_/name/cin/cincinnati-reds

There is a pretty large difference between a .688 OPS and a .604... not to mention that Stubbs is hitting for significantly more power than Cabrera AND playing better defense at his position. I agree (as would anyone) that Stubbs has not been setting the world on fire, but he hasn't nearly been the black hole that Cabrera has been as an overall player.

Homer Bailey
06-28-2010, 10:15 AM
Despite the RZ piling on, Cabrera has been, by statistical measures, and average defender this year.

Offensively, he has been dreadful lately. I do believe he has suffered some from quite a bit of bad luck, as he has a .257 BABIP despite a 18.3% LD rate. I think he could use some rest over the next two weeks and hopefully he comes back from the break hitting again.

Spring~Fields
06-28-2010, 10:51 AM
Erardi: Brandon Phillips inside the numbers
Baseball by the numbers
By John Erardi •

Despite leading the National League in runs scored so far this season, the Reds are again trailing the pack in the leadoff spot. The myth is that Orlando Cabrera jump-started the Reds offense, when Dusty Baker moved him to the leadoff spot May 7.

The evidence shows the jump-start was more coincidence than anything. Since May 7, the Reds are batting .293 as a team, have a .356 on-base percentage and a .473 slugging average.

Before May 7, they were .241/.314/.391. In other words, Cabrera in the leadoff hole isn't driving this team, the team is driving this team. And Cabrera hasn't been much better batting leadoff (.263/.307/.349) than he has batting elsewhere in the order (255/.294/.351).

The Reds leadoff men were 19 points worse than the MLB average in 2008, 23 points worse last year and are a whopping 42 points worse this season.

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20100627/SPT04/6270358/1071/Erardi-Brandon-Phillips-inside-the-numbers

BRM
06-28-2010, 10:57 AM
Can we still complain about lineup construction when the Reds lead the NL in runs scored?

Spring~Fields
06-28-2010, 11:20 AM
Can we still complain about lineup construction when the Reds lead the NL in runs scored?

If the benefit of Cabrera over Janish was to be his bat and offensive attributes at the plate.

I'm wondering if one could infer from the article, that yourself and the article might be suggesting, since the Reds lead the league in runs scored regardless of Cabrera, that they could have done that even with Janish batting in the positions that Cabrera has?

At the same time having reduced pressure/stress/workload on the starting and bullpen pitching, by reducing the number of outs and pitches thrown by the starters and bullpen, perhaps reducing runs allowed, with Janish and his superior fielding? Maybe even widening their lead over St. Louis.

nate
06-28-2010, 11:22 AM
Despite the RZ piling on, Cabrera has been, by statistical measures, and average defender this year.

How would "Redszone piling on" would affect his fielding?

I guess one could say UZR measures him as average so far but it's a sample about the equivalent of 60-70 ABs. I'm seeing a guy who's getting to around 81% of balls in zone:


Season cBIZ cPlays cRZR
2003 270 244 90.37%
2004 600 514 85.67%
2005 924 776 83.98%
2006 1275 1049 82.27%
2007 1649 1351 81.93%
2008 2071 1703 82.23%
2009 2510 2038 81.20%
2010 2692 2184 81.13%


The "c" denotes a cumulative stat so his career numbers up to the end of that season. I'm seeing a decline. Or maybe he wasn't ever really that good?


Offensively, he has been dreadful lately. I do believe he has suffered some from quite a bit of bad luck, as he has a .257 BABIP despite a 18.3% LD rate. I think he could use some rest over the next two weeks and hopefully he comes back from the break hitting again.

I dunno:

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/766_SS_daily_full_9_20100627.png

Looks like that LD rate is in steady decline with an increase in FB and roughly the same amount of GB. Not to hate on the brother but I think he's not very good and Janish would benefit the team more. At least put O-Cab at the end of the lineup so he stops challenging for the league lead in outs made.

Spring~Fields
06-28-2010, 11:28 AM
Looks like that LD rate is in steady decline with an increase in FB and roughly the same amount of GB. Not to hate on the brother but I think he's not very good and Janish would benefit the team more. At least put O-Cab at the end of the lineup so he stops challenging for the league lead in outs made.


Can we say that there is supporting facts and evidence now that the team would have and would benefit from Janish over Cabrera? Can we toss the unsupported opinions that prefer Cabrera over Janish, yet?

Would it follow that the starting and bullpen pitching would benefit from Janish over Cabrera then and now? The bottom line, the win-loss column going forward?

pedro
06-28-2010, 12:09 PM
Can we say that there is supporting facts and evidence now that the team would have and would benefit from Janish over Cabrera? Can we toss the unsupported opinions that prefer Cabrera over Janish, yet?

Would it follow that the starting and bullpen pitching would benefit from Janish over Cabrera then and now? The bottom line, the win-loss column going forward?

Statistically there is still as much evidence to suggest it's nothing more than a lateral move and psychologically there is no way to know how it would effect the team. TMBS, I wouldn't mind Janish spelling Cabrera once a week and if Cabrera is truly hobbled, then sitting him through the AS break might be a good idea.

As bad as Cabrera has been offensively, I still have a hard time believing Janish's bat is good enough to bridge the gap made my Cabrera's defense.

Homer Bailey
06-28-2010, 12:10 PM
How would "Redszone piling on" would affect his fielding?

RZ has destroyed OC for his defense, and the numbers say he hasn't been that bad. I think you knew what I meant.


I guess one could say UZR measures him as average so far but it's a sample about the equivalent of 60-70 ABs. I'm seeing a guy who's getting to around 81% of balls in zone:

Sure, it's not a huge sample size, but there was also a thread started title "-36" to show OC's defensive ineptitude, and I believe that was in the first month of the season.



Looks like that LD rate is in steady decline with an increase in FB and roughly the same amount of GB. Not to hate on the brother but I think he's not very good and Janish would benefit the team more. At least put O-Cab at the end of the lineup so he stops challenging for the league lead in outs made.


LD% FB% GB%
2010 0.183 0.369 0.449
Career 0.193 0.376 0.431

I'd say these numbers are pretty much in line with his career numbers, yet his OPS is 100 points below his career average.

Here's what I would expect his BABIP to be.


Avg. OC S/B S/B BABIP
LD 0.72 48 34.56
FB 0.14 97 13.58
GB 0.23 118 27.14
Total 263 75.28 0.286

If OC was hitting at league avg BABIP rates, he'd have an extra 8 hits, which would bump his line to (if all singles) .267/.304/.356/.660. Obviously, that line is nothing to write home about, and unacceptable in my book (despite being an OC supporter), but I do think he's been a bit unlucky.


Can we say that there is supporting facts and evidence now that the team would have and would benefit from Janish over Cabrera? Can we toss the unsupported opinions that prefer Cabrera over Janish, yet?

Do you think OC is a .600 OPS bat? If we can all agree that he is (which I certainly do not), then sure. Otherwise, there is still a strong case for OC to be made. I think it can be argued that OC (overall) is an average offensive SS and an average defensive SS. So far, this year, OC has been a below average offensive SS, and an average defensive SS. Janish, by any measure, is a terrible offensive SS, and an above average defensive SS.

If OC continues to hit like he is, obviously Janish is the better option at SS. If he hits like he did for the first quarter of the season, then I believe he is the better option at SS. It's not an unsupported opinion. Pre injury, Cabrera was hitting the ball pretty well, driving in runs when th lineup turned over, and hit for a pretty solid average. The mistake was not DL-ing him when he sprained his ankle.


Would it follow that the starting and bullpen pitching would benefit from Janish over Cabrera then and now? The bottom line, the win-loss column going forward?

If it was clear that the win-loss column would be more favorable with Janish at SS, I would obviously support it. Going forward, I'm not sure its that clear. I think OC badly needs rest, and I would still consider DL-ing him and bringing him back after the all-star break.

pedro
06-28-2010, 12:13 PM
FWIW, Cabrera's post all-star game line last year was .308/.336/.439/.775

OnBaseMachine
06-28-2010, 12:22 PM
My eyes tell me Cabrera's range is severely dimished and well below average. He's also not even making the routine plays lately. Yesterday he let a ball go right through his legs and he's also botched a few other plays recently. It's a small sample size as Nate said, but UZR currently says Cabrera is an average defender while Drew Stubbs is below average and Jay Bruce is slightly above average. Something's not right there.

nate
06-28-2010, 12:52 PM
RZ has destroyed OC for his defense, and the numbers say he hasn't been that bad.

That number also says it does not pretend to be indicative of performance after 40% of a season.


I think you knew what I meant. Sure, it's not a huge sample size, but there was also a thread started title "-36" to show OC's defensive ineptitude, and I believe that was in the first month of the season.

I have no idea why it's important to know that. It doesn't make using a slightly larger but still small sample size any more indicative of anything. Especially unregressed and/or unweighted with previous seasons.


LD% FB% GB%
2010 0.183 0.369 0.449
Career 0.193 0.376 0.431

I'd say these numbers are pretty much in line with his career numbers, yet his OPS is 100 points below his career average. [/quote]

I'd say he's declining as the chart indicates. Over the past three years, his ability to hit the ball hard has declined.

I can totally see why the OPS would be that much lower as you're comparing a couple thousand ABs to a couple hundred. A "bad" spell in a below average season after that few ABs will have a lot more impact on one's OPS, especially if, like O-Cab, you're not an on base machine or a slugger.


Here's what I would expect his BABIP to be.


Avg. OC S/B S/B BABIP
LD 0.72 48 34.56
FB 0.14 97 13.58
GB 0.23 118 27.14
Total 263 75.28 0.286

If OC was hitting at league avg BABIP rates, he'd have an extra 8 hits, which would bump his line to (if all singles) .267/.304/.356/.660. Obviously, that line is nothing to write home about, and unacceptable in my book (despite being an OC supporter), but I do think he's been a bit unlucky.

I see a guy who's just not hitting the ball very well. He has no plate discipline or power to fall back on. Plus, it's not going to get easier to right that ship as the season goes on.

nate
06-28-2010, 12:56 PM
My eyes tell me Cabrera's range is severely dimished and well below average. He's also not even making the routine plays lately. Yesterday he let a ball go right through his legs and he's also botched a few other plays recently. It's a small sample size as Nate said, but UZR currently says Cabrera is an average defender while Drew Stubbs is below average and Jay Bruce is slightly above average. Something's not right there.

Yes. One regresses small sample sizes like that.


For a one-year UZR, I mentally regress UZR halfway toward the mean, which means basically to “cut it in half” since the mean is defined more or less as zero. If you want to refine that “rule of thumb” a little, you can regress a player’s UZR (per 150 games) toward +2 for a fast player, -2 for a slow player, and zero for anyone in between. That is more true in the OF than in the IF, and more true at SS and 2B than at 3B or 1B, as you might expect. In addition, when I say “fast” or “slow,” I mean relative to the average player at that position. So, for example, if a player is fast, but only as fast as the average CF’er, and he is a CF’er, then you still want to regress his UZR to zero.

So, for example, maybe when we get around to the time Stubbs was called up last year, we can take his UZR number and regress it toward +2 (I think Stubbs would qualify as "fast") to get a more accurate idea of what his defense is worth.

Homer Bailey
06-28-2010, 01:10 PM
That number also says it does not pretend to be indicative of performance after 40% of a season.


Yes. One regresses small sample sizes like that.



So, for example, maybe when we get around to the time Stubbs was called up last year, we can take his UZR number and regress it toward +2 (I think Stubbs would qualify as "fast") to get a more accurate idea of what his defense is worth.

It has often been said on here that you need 3 years of data to accurately determine a players UZR. OC's cumulative UZR over the last 3 years is +.7, making him about average.




I have no idea why it's important to know that. It doesn't make using a slightly larger but still small sample size any more indicative of anything. Especially unregressed and/or unweighted with previous seasons.

It's not important. All I said was despite RZ bashing him, he's been an average defender, and I cited an example of RZ doing so. I have no idea why we're still discussing that part of the comment.


LD% FB% GB%
2010 0.183 0.369 0.449
Career 0.193 0.376 0.431

I'd say these numbers are pretty much in line with his career numbers, yet his OPS is 100 points below his career average. [/quote]


I'd say he's declining as the chart indicates. Over the past three years, his ability to hit the ball hard has declined.

I guess you can see what you want to see, but I wouldn't call a 1% drop in LD rate a true regression, espeically when the sample is less than a seasons worth of data.


I can totally see why the OPS would be that much lower as you're comparing a couple thousand ABs to a couple hundred. A "bad" spell in a below average season after that few ABs will have a lot more impact on one's OPS, especially if, like O-Cab, you're not an on base machine or a slugger.

I see a guy who's just not hitting the ball very well. He has no plate discipline or power to fall back on. Plus, it's not going to get easier to right that ship as the season goes on.

Now this I can get behind. OC is dependent on his batting average to carry his offensive weight, and when he's not getting base hits, he's useless on O. I realize that batting average is a poor way to evaluate a players offensive value, but for a guy like OC, if he's hitting .280+ like he has throughout his career, I would rather have his bat in the lineup over Janish's, especially because we know the SS is going to bat either 1 or 2.

The current version of OC is worthless. I keep waiting for him to turn it around, and I think he can if he just gets some rest, but Dusty is set on sending him back out there every day.

fearofpopvol1
06-28-2010, 01:21 PM
Statistically there is still as much evidence to suggest it's nothing more than a lateral move and psychologically there is no way to know how it would effect the team. TMBS, I wouldn't mind Janish spelling Cabrera once a week and if Cabrera is truly hobbled, then sitting him through the AS break might be a good idea.

As bad as Cabrera has been offensively, I still have a hard time believing Janish's bat is good enough to bridge the gap made my Cabrera's defense.

For me, it's less about him being in the lineup than where he is batting. There is no reason, until he proves otherwise, that he should be getting the 1st or 2nd most ABs on the team. If he was batting 7th or 8th, I would feel a bit better.

I am also concerned that his admitted ankle injury is affecting him both offensively and defensively.

pedro
06-28-2010, 02:01 PM
For me, it's less about him being in the lineup than where he is batting. There is no reason, until he proves otherwise, that he should be getting the 1st or 2nd most ABs on the team. If he was batting 7th or 8th, I would feel a bit better.

I am also concerned that his admitted ankle injury is affecting him both offensively and defensively.

I can't really argue with that.

nate
06-28-2010, 02:11 PM
It has often been said on here that you need 3 years of data to accurately determine a players UZR. OC's cumulative UZR over the last 3 years is +.7, making him about average.

I think you could make a case that he's actually been better than that if you combine this year with last year and give the previous three years a 3/4/5 weighting.

He might be average if he's healthy. I don't think he's healthy and I actually don't think he's been healthy all season.


It's not important. All I said was despite RZ bashing him, he's been an average defender, and I cited an example of RZ doing so. I have no idea why we're still discussing that part of the comment.

There's also this thread saying he's a "lucky charm." It doesn't make any sense to assign one person's (or even many people's) opinion as being representative of "Redszone" against which one is the sole voice of reason.


I guess you can see what you want to see, but I wouldn't call a 1% drop in LD rate a true regression, espeically when the sample is less than a seasons worth of data.

I was talking about the graphic I posted which showed a clear three-year decline.


Now this I can get behind. OC is dependent on his batting average to carry his offensive weight, and when he's not getting base hits, he's useless on O. I realize that batting average is a poor way to evaluate a players offensive value,

No it isn't, it's the largest component of any player's ability to get on base and avoid outs.


but for a guy like OC, if he's hitting .280+ like he has throughout his career, I would rather have his bat in the lineup over Janish's, especially because we know the SS is going to bat either 1 or 2. The current version of OC is worthless. I keep waiting for him to turn it around, and I think he can if he just gets some rest, but Dusty is set on sending him back out there every day.

The difference between Janish and this version of O-Cab is small.

And I don't think Janish is on the lesser side of the scale.

nate
06-28-2010, 02:12 PM
For me, it's less about him being in the lineup than where he is batting. There is no reason, until he proves otherwise, that he should be getting the 1st or 2nd most ABs on the team. If he was batting 7th or 8th, I would feel a bit better.

I am also concerned that his admitted ankle injury is affecting him both offensively and defensively.

Yep. If he's gonna be in there (I'd prefer not), bat him down in the lineup.

VR
06-28-2010, 02:51 PM
Can we still complain about lineup construction when the Reds lead the NL in runs scored?

My take on this is the relative nature.

I think a move of Bruce to #2 and OCab to #7 would increase the runs scored....and I think that's the goal, not just leading the league.


This was an argument several weeks ago when the Reds were on fire.....keep him at leadoff, they are winning. Great teams are proactive in fine tuning...not trying to play their hand out despite the odds being stacked up against them.

Ron Madden
06-28-2010, 02:56 PM
My take on this is the relative nature.

I think a move of Bruce to #2 and OCab to #7 would increase the runs scored....and I think that's the goal, not just leading the league.


This was an argument several weeks ago when the Reds were on fire.....keep him at leadoff, they are winning. Great teams are proactive in fine tuning...not trying to play their hand out despite the odds being stacked up against them.

That's the way I see it as well.

BRM
06-28-2010, 02:57 PM
My take on this is the relative nature.

I think a move of Bruce to #2 and OCab to #7 would increase the runs scored....and I think that's the goal, not just leading the league.


This was an argument several weeks ago when the Reds were on fire.....keep him at leadoff, they are winning. Great teams are proactive in fine tuning...not trying to play their hand out despite the odds being stacked up against them.

I agree.

OnBaseMachine
06-28-2010, 03:03 PM
My take on this is the relative nature.

I think a move of Bruce to #2 and OCab to #7 would increase the runs scored....and I think that's the goal, not just leading the league.


This was an argument several weeks ago when the Reds were on fire.....keep him at leadoff, they are winning. Great teams are proactive in fine tuning...not trying to play their hand out despite the odds being stacked up against them.

I agree as well. I love the thought of Jay Bruce batting 2nd.

Raisor
06-28-2010, 03:04 PM
I agree as well. I love the thought of Jay Bruce batting 2nd.

See, I'd do Bruce 1 and Phillips 2, but not a big deal either way.

Bruce/Phillips
Phillips/Bruce
Votto
Rolen

Is a heck of a top four.

nate
06-28-2010, 03:12 PM
Can we still complain about lineup construction when the Reds lead the NL in runs scored?

To me, if you're not running away with the division and not squeezing every last drop of performance out of what you have, there's always room for improvement.

I think it's likely that a better lineup (both players in the lineup and batting order) might have the Reds with 2-3 more wins at this point.

RedsManRick
06-28-2010, 03:35 PM
To me, if you're not running away with the division and not squeezing every last drop of performance out of what you have, there's always room for improvement.

I think it's likely that a better lineup (both players in the lineup and batting order) might have the Reds with 2-3 more wins at this point.

I'm not sure the order would mean 2-3 more wins, but I agree with your first statement 100%. The idea that we should accept something bad simply because it hasn't crippled us hardly seems wise to me. We should feel fortunate that the rest of the offense has picked up Cabrera's slack; but we should still do everything within our power to minimize the damage.

BRM
06-28-2010, 03:37 PM
I'm not sure the order would mean 2-3 more wins, but I agree with your first statement 100%. The idea that we should accept something bad simply because it hasn't crippled us hardly seems wise to me. We should feel fortunate that the rest of the offense has picked up Cabrera's slack; but we should still do everything within our power to minimize the damage.

I don't know that anyone is saying we should accept something bad just because. Seems to me most of the OC supporters are just saying they aren't convinced Janish would be any sort of upgrade.

TheNext44
06-28-2010, 03:39 PM
I have a feeling Cabrera will be the starting SS all season, no matter how he produces. Phillips likes him as double play partner, and I think Dusty believes that Cabrera brings needed experience and leadership to the infield.

I have been arguing for Janish from day one, but I just don't see it happening.

Blitz Dorsey
06-28-2010, 03:46 PM
I was so anti-Janish because of his weak stick that I was completely behind the Cabrera signing. However, O-Cab is barely hitting better than Janish would be if he was the everyday SS. Plus, Janish is better defensively, although not quite as good as some Reds fans make him out to be IMO. Janish is very good defensively, but he's not great. And it's clear the front office and the manager are not very high on him. I was really hoping we were going to find a SS in this year's draft but it just didn't work out. And Cozart can't be considered the "SS of the future" until he proves he can reach an OPS of at least .750 at AAA.

TheNext44
06-28-2010, 03:51 PM
I was so anti-Janish because of his weak stick that I was completely behind the Cabrera signing. However, O-Cab is barely hitting better than Janish would be if he was the everyday SS. Plus, Janish is better defensively, although not quite as good as some Reds fans make him out to be IMO. Janish is very good defensively, but he's not great. And it's clear the front office and the manager are not very high on him. I was really hoping we were going to find a SS in this year's draft but it just didn't work out. And Cozart can't be considered the "SS of the future" until he proves he can reach an OPS of at least .750 at AAA.

Just for the record, Cozart's line as of today:

.250 .311 .411 .723

nate
06-28-2010, 04:01 PM
I'm not sure the order would mean 2-3 more wins, but I agree with your first statement 100%. The idea that we should accept something bad simply because it hasn't crippled us hardly seems wise to me. We should feel fortunate that the rest of the offense has picked up Cabrera's slack; but we should still do everything within our power to minimize the damage.

Yes. And I meant the batting order and the lineup. More starts for Janish and Heisey.

VR
06-28-2010, 09:08 PM
Janish at 8 is better than OCab at 1 or 2....even after his night tonight, which is nice

pedro
06-28-2010, 09:29 PM
Janish at 8 is better than OCab at 1 or 2....even after his night tonight, which is nice

not with that .597 lifetime OPS.

I just don't believe he's that much better defensively and I've seen no quantitative analysis that suggests that Janish would be even a lateral move.

fearofpopvol1
06-28-2010, 10:09 PM
I'll give OCab his props where they are due. He had a great game tonight...even with the glove. Here's to hoping for more of that!

I would still bat him lower in the lineup until he shows some consistency, but that's just me.

Spring~Fields
06-28-2010, 11:05 PM
I'll give OCab his props where they are due. He had a great game tonight...even with the glove. Here's to hoping for more of that!

I would still bat him lower in the lineup until he shows some consistency, but that's just me.

Sure did.

Cabrera 3 for 4 tonight. double, RBI, in on a couple double plays


Works almost everytime. ;)

Now move him down where he belongs in the 8 1/2 slot :)

Mario-Rijo
06-28-2010, 11:13 PM
I think he's in the right spot in the lineup, really no way to improve on what we have currently. He's no gangbuster but as I said before what he lacks in getting on base and scoring runs he makes up for with driving them in. It would be nice if we could have a guy like Stubbs leading off but for now I wouldn't mess with the current alignment. As long as BP stays within himself leading off I think it's a decent alignment. The real key for us is gonna be the pitching. Here's to hoping Leake can hold off those LHH's tomorrow. Got a real sneaking suspicion Blanton is gonna be keeping that ball low if he wants to have any shot at winning. 2 of 3 would be nice and Leake vs. Blanton is our best shot at it.

CesarGeronimo
07-05-2010, 11:45 AM
Just an update after Janish's big afternoon yesterday

Orlando Cabrera - 321 ABs in 2010
.289/.343/.632

Paul Janish - 50 ABs in 2010
.390/.460 /.850

This is obviously still a very small sample with Janish, but it's getting harder and harder, in my opinion, to argue that he shouldn't play more than he does.

Also, why does Miguel Cairo have almost twice as many at bats as Janish? Is it because his .278 batting average (or even Cabrera at .252) looks pretty decent if you are old-school and refuse to pay attention to OPB and OPS?

Miguel Cairo - 97 ABs
.317/.371/.688

Homer Bailey
07-05-2010, 12:26 PM
Just an update after Janish's big afternoon yesterday

Orlando Cabrera - 321 ABs in 2010
.289/.343/.632

Paul Janish - 50 ABs in 2010
.390/.460 /.850

This is obviously still a very small sample with Janish, but it's getting harder and harder, in my opinion, to argue that he shouldn't play more than he does.

Also, why does Miguel Cairo have almost twice as many at bats as Janish? Is it because his .278 batting average (or even Cabrera at .252) looks pretty decent if you are old-school and refuse to pay attention to OPB and OPS?

Miguel Cairo - 97 ABs
.317/.371/.688

Paul Janish MLB career:

.303/.313/.616 in 386 AB's.

What's more telling, the 50 AB's this year, or the 386 over his career? The guy is not a good hitter. If you want to argue that his defense outweighs his offensive ineptitude, and makes him more valuable than OC, I get that. I'm not sure that many are going to buy that he is magically a better hitter thanks to 50 PA's.

fearofpopvol1
07-05-2010, 12:48 PM
Paul Janish MLB career:

.303/.313/.616 in 386 AB's.

What's more telling, the 50 AB's this year, or the 386 over his career? The guy is not a good hitter. If you want to argue that his defense outweighs his offensive ineptitude, and makes him more valuable than OC, I get that. I'm not sure that many are going to buy that he is magically a better hitter thanks to 50 PA's.

I think the best argument is that there really isn't any reason Janish gets playing time once every 10 games. He should fill in at 3B when Rolen needs a day off and OCab should be getting more days off with Janish filling in than he does. He deserves more PT with his glove.

westofyou
07-05-2010, 12:58 PM
I think the best argument is that there really isn't any reason Janish gets playing time once every 10 games. He should fill in at 3B when Rolen needs a day off and OCab should be getting more days off with Janish filling in than he does. He deserves more PT with his glove.
They did place him at 2nd for the 1st time this year, as good as his glove is at SS, his future is probably in Omar Infante country.

fearofpopvol1
07-05-2010, 01:00 PM
They did place him at 2nd for the 1st time this year, as good as his glove is at SS, his future is probably in Omar Infante country.

I don't expect or necessarily even think he should be starting, I just think he should be utilized more. He's definitely a better defender than Cairo is and I'd personally like to see him used more late in the game over Cabrera even though that's not likely to happen.

CesarGeronimo
07-05-2010, 01:10 PM
Paul Janish MLB career:

.303/.313/.616 in 386 AB's.

What's more telling, the 50 AB's this year, or the 386 over his career? The guy is not a good hitter. If you want to argue that his defense outweighs his offensive ineptitude, and makes him more valuable than OC, I get that. I'm not sure that many are going to buy that he is magically a better hitter thanks to 50 PA's.

And yet Janish - who "is not a good hitter" - has a career OPS that's very close to what Cabrera is putting up this year. No, Janish has not suddenly become an .800 OPS guy. But he may be getting a little better as a hitter, while Cabrera is declining. What has Cabrera done that merits getting almost all of the ABs at shortstop? Nothing against the guy, but he has no real strengths to his game at this point in his career, which is what often happens to 35-year-old shortstops.

I'm not saying that Janish should be the starter. I am saying that he's hitting well enough and Cabrera is struggling badly enough that they ought to play Janish more and see how he does.

RedsManRick
07-05-2010, 01:28 PM
I think there are 2 basic questions: Just how good is Janish's glove and just how bad is Cabrera's bat. We know that Janish is not ever going to be more than a passable hitter. And we know that Cabrera's glove is average, at best.

First the question of Cabrera's bat. In 2008 he put up a .705 OPS/.316 wOBA (.301 BABIP). In 2009 he put up a .705 OPS/.310 wOBA (.302 BABIP). This year, he's put up .632 OPS/ .286 wOBA (.272 BABIP). Now, I'd be the first to point out his low BABIP this year, particularly in consideration of a solid LD%. However, if you adjust that BABIP back up to .300, you're looking at right around that .700 OPS/ .310 wOBA he was at last year.

Janish, for his part, has increased his walk rate, decreased his strikeout rate and increased his power in his limited opportunity this year. I don't think that's at all predictive, but it's still a good sign. In 2008 Janish had a .230 BABIP. Last year it was .247. He had a healthy LD% in both years (for those who assume he was just hitting the ball weakly). I'll concede that not all batted ball types are equal, but that's a whole lot of BABIP to account for. This year it's at .286. Now, maybe he's just getting lucky -- but it's not showing up in the stats anywhere. Even if we concede that he's not an .850 OPS/ .365 wOBA guy -- it's not exactly a stretch to suggest he's in Cabrera territory.

Now, if you think Janish is just an above average defender, then he's definitely a utility type guy. You're looking at an Infante, Macias, or Neifi Perez type guy. A replacement level player whose glove doesn't carry his bat and whose only value is in playing multiple positions, allowing the team to carry another bench guy who can actually hit (aka, not Miguel Cairo).

But if you think he's got an elite glove, along the lines that his career +14 UZR/150 suggests, it's a different ballgame. Then you're looking at an Adam Everett or Brendan Ryan type. A guy who can be league average in a decent year thanks in large part to his glove. And if his offensive improvement is real, even along the lines of .270/.350/.380, that's a very solid player.

If Janish is the former, he belongs in his current role. If he's the latter, he's Cabrera's equal at worst and possibly a good deal better. And if Cabrera's offensive ability has truly fallen to a sub-.300 wOBA, even assuming he's an average defender, it's not terribly close. At that point, Janish is the better everyday option.

At minimum, I'd like to see Janish getting some starts when our groundball starters are one the mound, specifically Leake, and late the in the game to protect a lead. Most of our relievers are ground ball types. Cabrera's legs could certainly use the rest in any event.

For reference, here are some other guy's career UZR/150 -- using career figures gives us much better sample size. I would prefer a 3-year rolling average peak, but that's not easily available. Consider that defense peaks early, so these numbers are a bit low for where a few of these guys peaked. But I still think it paints the picture pretty well.

Adam Everett +15
JJ Hardy +12
Elvis Andrus +11
Brenden Ryan +9
Alex Gonzalez +8
Cesar Izturis +7
Jason Bartlett +7
Jimmy Rollins +5
Troy Tulowitski +5
Jose Reyes +4
Orlando Cabrera +3
Omar Infante +1

VR
07-05-2010, 01:50 PM
Paul Janish MLB career:

.303/.313/.616 in 386 AB's.

What's more telling, the 50 AB's this year, or the 386 over his career? The guy is not a good hitter. If you want to argue that his defense outweighs his offensive ineptitude, and makes him more valuable than OC, I get that. I'm not sure that many are going to buy that he is magically a better hitter thanks to 50 PA's.


Not at all.....but players do improve....as has been the case for Janish at every level.

He OPSed .520 in 90 pa in 2008
He OPSed .601 in 282 pa in 2009
He's OPSing .850 in 50PA this year.

He's making progress, and that's all we can ask. It's clear he's not that guy he was in 2008.....but in my mind closer to .700 than .600 at this point.
As long as he's not a sub .600 hitter.....his defense far outweighs anything OCab can come close to.

My biggest concern has always been strength and stamina w Janish. While he's obviously stronger than he's ever been.....I don't think he's quite ready to be an every day player yet.

He doesn't begin to provide the leadership that OCab does, but if he was the starter in 2011....we'd have the best defensive infield in the majors. Factor that in with a stellar defensive outfield (If Heisey is in left), and an above average catching corps.....and the already solid pitching becomes that much better.

nate
07-05-2010, 01:51 PM
But Rick, Omar Infante is an all-star!

:cool:

Homer Bailey
07-05-2010, 02:39 PM
Great post RMR. Pretty much agree with everything there.

If OC is the type of hitter he's been over the last month, obviously I think Janish should be starting at SS. If he's closer to the .700 hitter which I believe he is, I think his D is passable enough to warrant him starting over Janish.

fearofpopvol1
07-05-2010, 02:41 PM
I think there are 2 basic questions: Just how good is Janish's glove and just how bad is Cabrera's bat. We know that Janish is not ever going to be more than a passable hitter. And we know that Cabrera's glove is average, at best.

First the question of Cabrera's bat. In 2008 he put up a .705 OPS/.316 wOBA (.301 BABIP). In 2009 he put up a .705 OPS/.310 wOBA (.302 BABIP). This year, he's put up .632 OPS/ .286 wOBA (.272 BABIP). Now, I'd be the first to point out his low BABIP this year, particularly in consideration of a solid LD%. However, if you adjust that BABIP back up to .300, you're looking at right around that .700 OPS/ .310 wOBA he was at last year.

Janish, for his part, has increased his walk rate, decreased his strikeout rate and increased his power in his limited opportunity this year. I don't think that's at all predictive, but it's still a good sign. In 2008 Janish had a .230 BABIP. Last year it was .247. He had a healthy LD% in both years (for those who assume he was just hitting the ball weakly). I'll concede that not all batted ball types are equal, but that's a whole lot of BABIP to account for. This year it's at .286. Now, maybe he's just getting lucky -- but it's not showing up in the stats anywhere. Even if we concede that he's not an .850 OPS/ .365 wOBA guy -- it's not exactly a stretch to suggest he's in Cabrera territory.

Now, if you think Janish is just an above average defender, then he's definitely a utility type guy. You're looking at an Infante, Macias, or Neifi Perez type guy. A replacement level player whose glove doesn't carry his bat and whose only value is in playing multiple positions, allowing the team to carry another bench guy who can actually hit (aka, not Miguel Cairo).

But if you think he's got an elite glove, along the lines that his career +14 UZR/150 suggests, it's a different ballgame. Then you're looking at an Adam Everett or Brendan Ryan type. A guy who can be league average in a decent year thanks in large part to his glove. And if his offensive improvement is real, even along the lines of .270/.350/.380, that's a very solid player.

If Janish is the former, he belongs in his current role. If he's the latter, he's Cabrera's equal at worst and possibly a good deal better. And if Cabrera's offensive ability has truly fallen to a sub-.300 wOBA, even assuming he's an average defender, it's not terribly close. At that point, Janish is the better everyday option.

At minimum, I'd like to see Janish getting some starts when our groundball starters are one the mound, specifically Leake, and late the in the game to protect a lead. Most of our relievers are ground ball types. Cabrera's legs could certainly use the rest in any event.

For reference, here are some other guy's career UZR/150 -- using career figures gives us much better sample size. I would prefer a 3-year rolling average peak, but that's not easily available. Consider that defense peaks early, so these numbers are a bit low for where a few of these guys peaked. But I still think it paints the picture pretty well.

Adam Everett +15
JJ Hardy +12
Elvis Andrus +11
Brenden Ryan +9
Alex Gonzalez +8
Cesar Izturis +7
Jason Bartlett +7
Jimmy Rollins +5
Troy Tulowitski +5
Jose Reyes +4
Orlando Cabrera +3
Omar Infante +1

:clap:

GAC
07-05-2010, 02:44 PM
But Rick, Omar Infante is an all-star!

And over Cairo too.

http://onemansblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/inconceivable.jpg

Cabby has moved down one slot from lead off to second. At this rate of slowness they'll have to extend him just to get him thru the remaining slots in the batting order and drop him. :mooner:

nemesis
07-05-2010, 03:43 PM
I really believe at time this board is so snake bitten from ghosts of players past it has a hard time seeing the field beyond the paper stats.

I am a very big stat guy. I believe that that can sometimes show a complete picture. But not always.

Janish has struggled with the bat in his short time in the Majors. Keep in mind he was just a Rookie last year. So this being his true sophomoric year it isn't far from the realm of possibility that he would improve over his first campaign. Alot of players do. he is in his prime years, he had a great spring training (Had 40 AB's in games the counted vs 50 all season), he added 10 lbs of muscle to his frame, he is more familiar with pitchers and is making much better contact, much like he was in the minors prior to Louisville.

Ok, I've sat on this a long time and if someone gets mad at me from above so be it.

Going into the off season both Dusty and Walt told Janish based on his glove work in the last 50 or so games he started they would give him a pass on his bat as long as he dedicated himself to working on improving his strength, diet and stamina in the off season and he would be the starting SS in 2010. He lost 10 lbs in those last 50 or so games. So he did what they asked. He worked on his body all off season, He changed his diet, spent less time with his beautiful wife to lift and tinker on his swing and was 10 lbs above his weight going into spring training. So in the midst of all of this, killing himself on a promise from your manager and GM, they go sign Cabrera. They told him it had nothing to to with him or what he wasn't doing, they were impressed and that if he kept it up his time would come. That they didn't think they would be able to get a player of Cabrera's pedigree. So he went off, said some things that a second year player shouldn't have said. Now he is being taught ML playing time is real hard to come by to people who are not respectful to the superiors.

Basically your boss tells you he is promoting you if you work overtime and do all kinds extra projects for 4 months. You do them and some guy who doesn't work for the company gets the job from the same boss who promised it to you. You be less than thrilled too.

Cedric
07-05-2010, 03:49 PM
I really believe at time this board is so snake bitten from ghosts of players past it has a hard time seeing the field beyond the paper stats.

I am a very big stat guy. I believe that that can sometimes show a complete picture. But not always.

Janish has struggled with the bat in his short time in the Majors. Keep in mind he was just a Rookie last year. So this being his true sophomoric year it isn't far from the realm of possibility that he would improve over his first campaign. Alot of players do. he is in his prime years, he had a great spring training (Had 40 AB's in games the counted vs 50 all season), he added 10 lbs of muscle to his frame, he is more familiar with pitchers and is making much better contact, much like he was in the minors prior to Louisville.

Ok, I've sat on this a long time and if someone gets mad at me from above so be it.

Going into the off season both Dusty and Walt told Janish based on his glove work in the last 50 or so games he started they would give him a pass on his bat as long as he dedicated himself to working on improving his strength, diet and stamina in the off season and he would be the starting SS in 2010. He lost 10 lbs in those last 50 or so games. So he did what they asked. He worked on his body all off season, He changed his diet, spent less time with his beautiful wife to lift and tinker on his swing and was 10 lbs above his weight going into spring training. So in the midst of all of this, killing himself on a promise from your manager and GM, they go sign Cabrera. They told him it had nothing to to with him or what he wasn't doing, they were impressed and that if he kept it up his time would come. That they didn't think they would be able to get a player of Cabrera's pedigree. So he went off, said some things that a second year player shouldn't have said. Now he is being taught ML playing time is real hard to come by to people who are not respectful to the superiors.

Basically your boss tells you he is promoting you if you work overtime and do all kinds extra projects for 4 months. You do them and some guy who doesn't work for the company gets the job from the same boss who promised it to you. You be less than thrilled too.

There are no promises in baseball. None.

TRF
07-05-2010, 04:05 PM
I'd give Janish the same treatment I'd give Heisey. Once a week he plays 3B. Once a week he plays SS, once every 10 days or so he spells BP at 2B. That gives your regulars some much needed rest, especially in the hot months, and gives Janish the AB's to prove or disprove he can be a regular at SS.

RedsManRick
07-05-2010, 04:34 PM
Ok, I've sat on this a long time and if someone gets mad at me from above so be it.

2 questions:

1) Is this an actual account of what happened (I won't question your sources -- assuming you couldn't share them in any event) or a hypothesis?

2) Do the Reds really believe that Cabrera is a significantly better player than Janish. E.g. would they completely dismiss my position as described above? And if so, which points would they disagree with?

You say we can't get past stats, and your scenario explains why the Reds may being playing Cabrera and not Janish. But are the Reds really so petty that they want to screw over a guy's career because he got upset when he got jerked around? And furthermore, are they willing to put their team at a competitive disadvantage in doing so?

I mean, the difference in the scenario you describe is that I tell my boss to get lost and go find another employer who will actual value my skills. Janish does not have that option. I would suggest that management has a different kind of responsibility to its employees in such a circumstance. Though I recognize that unless they are forced to do so, they have little reason to treat their employees well.

nemesis
07-05-2010, 08:22 PM
2 questions:

1) Is this an actual account of what happened (I won't question your sources -- assuming you couldn't share them in any event) or a hypothesis?

2) Do the Reds really believe that Cabrera is a significantly better player than Janish. E.g. would they completely dismiss my position as described above? And if so, which points would they disagree with?

You say we can't get past stats, and your scenario explains why the Reds may being playing Cabrera and not Janish. But are the Reds really so petty that they want to screw over a guy's career because he got upset when he got jerked around? And furthermore, are they willing to put their team at a competitive disadvantage in doing so?

I mean, the difference in the scenario you describe is that I tell my boss to get lost and go find another employer who will actual value my skills. Janish does not have that option. I would suggest that management has a different kind of responsibility to its employees in such a circumstance. Though I recognize that unless they are forced to do so, they have little reason to treat their employees well.

It is an actual account. From a very direct source.

I do believe they though thought Cabrera's bat and intangibles was an upgrade. That was never told to me though.

RedsManRick
07-05-2010, 08:37 PM
It is an actual account. From a very direct source.

I do believe they though thought Cabrera's bat and intangibles was an upgrade. That was never told to me though.

Interesting. Thanks for sharing. I would think that after however many decades in the game, they would know better than to make promises like that.

Screwball
07-05-2010, 11:39 PM
Interesting indeed. I gotta wonder how long they keep him in the doghouse. Is half a season long enough to teach him a lesson?

bucksfan2
07-06-2010, 11:35 AM
Going into the off season both Dusty and Walt told Janish based on his glove work in the last 50 or so games he started they would give him a pass on his bat as long as he dedicated himself to working on improving his strength, diet and stamina in the off season and he would be the starting SS in 2010. He lost 10 lbs in those last 50 or so games. So he did what they asked. He worked on his body all off season, He changed his diet, spent less time with his beautiful wife to lift and tinker on his swing and was 10 lbs above his weight going into spring training. So in the midst of all of this, killing himself on a promise from your manager and GM, they go sign Cabrera. They told him it had nothing to to with him or what he wasn't doing, they were impressed and that if he kept it up his time would come. That they didn't think they would be able to get a player of Cabrera's pedigree. So he went off, said some things that a second year player shouldn't have said. Now he is being taught ML playing time is real hard to come by to people who are not respectful to the superiors.

I don't buy this for one second. First of all Janish is a professional ball player. His body and skills are his ticket to a major league contract. As a fringe major league player if he didn't show up to spring training in tip top condition then I would be disappointed. If he didn't do what the coaches and front office told him to do then I would be disappointed.

Baseball is a results oriented business. If the Reds felt that Cabrera gave them a better chance to win then so be it. It happens to everyone at some point in their career. If you don't like it then you better change your profession. If you want to spend time with your "beautiful wife" instead of training for the upcoming season then that is your prerogative. I have no issue with that one bit, but you may want to find a different job.