View Full Version : Will the Reds have a winning season?

06-15-2010, 01:06 AM
I know most of the board is caught up in the early stages of the Reds pennant race(myself included) and it's very fun and hopefully it continues through the entire year. But I think even if the Reds fail to make the postseason, ending the string of 9 consecutive losing seasons is very important to changing the culture of the Reds. The Reds need to finish the 2010 year at least 46-52 to get there record to 82-80 and secure there first winning season since 2000. Do they do it?

06-15-2010, 01:09 AM
They can, but there's no guarantee. They seem to be teetering on the edge right now. The stretch between now and the all star break will tell all.

06-15-2010, 01:11 AM
I voted yes but with the caveat of there being a couple of strong additions to the pitching staff. And I think Walt will do exactly that.

06-15-2010, 01:15 AM
I'm in early...yes.

06-15-2010, 01:16 AM
Yes. This improbable congregation of players will do it. I shudder at the thought that Dusty and Walt came up with a team capable of winning this year. the much maligned Cabrarra has proven that he can hit leadoff (who knew), Rolen has been more than clutch, Votto, although not the player of the decade many predicted, has come around, Hernandez shows competence behind the plate as well as pop. Gomes hs been fantastic and Phillips has been unbelievable at times. The starting pitcing has been solid and if Cueto can find some maturity and Leake continues, we are golden.

Only the bullpen is in question. Masset and Codero, Herrera and Lincoln, Owens, and everyone but Rhodes have been unimpressive, but there's still time. I've never been so enthuisiastic about a season. Will it last? I think and hope so.

06-15-2010, 01:27 AM

06-15-2010, 01:29 AM
Votto, although not the player of the decade many predicted, has come around,

I don't wanna get to far off topic, but who had Votto as a player of the decade? Heck, so far in his young career he's way than outperfromed what I thought he was going to do. He's been great. Bruce is a guy I had pegged to be the next "great one" and I'm still very confident that will come as he has really progressed this year.

06-15-2010, 01:57 AM
It would be much easier to say if there was a "possibly" option. I don't think anyone knows for sure until the deadline comes and passes and if moves (the right ones at that) are made. Relief help is desperately needed and really another starting pitcher would help too.

I feel pretty good about the bats and the defense though. I'd like to see them DFA Cairo and bring up Sutton however.

Ron Madden
06-15-2010, 03:27 AM
I honestly hope so but I wouldn't bet the ranch on it.

The Operator
06-15-2010, 05:55 AM
I hope so, but unless major changes are coming for the pitching staff... I don't see it.

06-15-2010, 06:38 AM
Tough question. Coming into the season the team had a lot of questions that needed to be answered to be a winning team. On offense all the answers have been yes so far. Rolen has found the fountain of youth and Gomes has repeated his 2009 success against both LH and RH pitching. Together with Votto and Bruce they have provided a solid middle of the line-up presence which has fueled the offense and rippled through to the other players. The ripple effect hasn't been more successful than with the previously miscast clean-up hitter who has moved to more of a "5th Beatle" role. Both the team and Brandon Phillips benefited from the switch. The "5th Beatle" is vital to the overall sound, but if he's the front man to the ensemble, your band will probably spend its days playing weddings and proms instead of jetting around and living like successful rock stars. Even with all the success, the team still needs an IF who can hit from the left side to allow a natural replacement when Phillips and the aging pair of Cabrera and Rolen need rest.

On the pitching side, the story hasn't been as pretty. Bailey has taken a step backwards and is now hurting. Arroyo is ok, but predictably not the guy he was in the second half of 2009. Harang, OTOH is the same guy as the last couple years unfortunately. Cueto still falls in to stretches of overthrowing and being awful. Leake has been an answer to a prayer, but how long can it continue as the innings mount and the league gains exposure? In the pen, Rhodes and Cordero are running on fumes. Masset has laid a big egg in 2010. The others are lesser guys who just can't pick up the slack.

The team needs to acquire a TOR potential starter. It may be Volquez though I'm a skeptic. It also needs a reliever or two. Maybe Bray, Burton or one of the lesser starters in AAA (Wood, Maloney or the currently useful Lecure) can be of help. I think some guys from outside the organization need to be added though and having a winning season relies on those guys being found or acquired and even if they are, a big drop-off from Rolen and Gomes may doom the offense and the team anyway.

For now, I want to be optimistic and say that they will have a winning season, but the dice won't always keep coming up 7's and Walt has some work to do.

06-15-2010, 08:28 AM
I would vote for a "I don't feel confident either way" option.

06-15-2010, 11:26 AM
.....They are 64 games into the season and 8 games over 500. I think they are roughly a 500 team.....why all the doom and gloom?

Has it been a particularly easy schedule? I don't think it has been, but then I haven't really looked.

Is Phillips injury that bad? I don't know. It could be.

Is the pitching staff a disaster? Talk to the Phillies. Reliable bullpen help may be expensive, but the reds pen has been SO bad that throwing arms against the wall and seeing what sticks will make it at least a LITTLE better. And I know everybody thinks it's a longshot but a healthy effective Bill Bray and Jarrod Burton are not out of the question sometime this year.

Is Bruce going to implode? Does everybody think Rolen has to go down? Or that Votto won't come out of his funk? ......

I guess it's possible that both Drew Stubbs and Gomes both turn into pumpkin's, but ...dang I'm a pretty pessimistic fan and I don't see that happening.

I would think the odds of a winning season are well over 50%. Probably not up to 66% yet but that would just be greedy.

The Giants, The Dodgers, The Padres, The Reds, The Cards, The Mets and the Braves all have roughly the same record. The Phillies are a couple games behind them.
Which of those teams do you think has a better chance of finishing over 500 than the reds?

06-15-2010, 11:37 AM
Yes, the Reds win at least 82 games and secure a winning season

Sure. :)

The Reds are 36 wins 28 losses with a win pct of .563.

They have played 64 games, they have 98 remaining.

If they play .500 ball the rest of the way that would give them .500 * 98, 49 more wins.

For a total of 49 + 36, 85 wins.

They are projecting to win .563 * 162, 91 wins now.

Jocketty/Baker/Price address, correct the bullpen problems and get that worked out
The regular position players hold up playing the bulk of the schedule.
The bench get some playing time/reps and can be kept in sync to be kept sharp

Going to be interesting to watch the Reds, that is Jocketty, Baker, Price and the players against the teams outside of the Central the rest of the way.

06-15-2010, 11:41 AM
I think so. Especially because the National League is so mediocre. I don't see them going on any extended losing streaks.

06-15-2010, 11:46 AM
.....They are 64 games into the season and 8 games over 500. I think they are roughly a 500 team.....why all the doom and gloom?

Has it been a particularly easy schedule? I don't think it has been, but then I haven't really looked.

Rk Tm >.500 <.500
1 CIN 12-15 24-13
2 STL 18-17 17-12
3 CHC 12-14 16-21
4 MIL 12-22 15-15
5 HOU 11-30 14-9
6 PIT 12-25 11-15
Avg 12-20 16-14

Falls City Beer
06-15-2010, 11:49 AM
No. Ceiling is .500. Maybe they'll spite me and go a game over .500, but I can't see this currently constructed roster winning much at all over 80 games.

Hoosier Red
06-15-2010, 01:27 PM
What Nate's post on the relative strength of schedule suggests to me is that the Reds probably will have a winning record but the Cardinals are due for a good run which may leave the Reds a little too far back.

The Reds are 12-15 against teams with above a .500 record, a .444 winning percentage. While this is not great, it's not terrible either and if the Reds had a .444 winning percentage in all their games for the rest of the year, they'd still finish with 79-80 wins.
Of course not all the games are against teams with winning records. Against weaker opponents, the Reds have won at a .649 pace. This is good news, and even considering the Reds have had many more opportunities against sub-500 teams, they've made the most of those opportunities(this past weekend excepted.) So with these winning percentages as a guide, here is how many games the Reds would win if their remaining games were above and below .500

Above .500 Below.500 Remaining Wins Total Wins
98 0 43.512 79.512
97 1 43.717 79.717
96 2 43.922 79.922
95 3 44.127 80.127
94 4 44.332 80.332
93 5 44.537 80.537
92 6 44.742 80.742
91 7 44.947 80.947
90 8 45.152 81.152
89 9 45.357 81.357
88 10 45.562 81.562
87 11 45.767 81.767
86 12 45.972 81.972
85 13 46.177 82.177
84 14 46.382 82.382
83 15 46.587 82.587
82 16 46.792 82.792
81 17 46.997 82.997

Ironically, if you took the Cardinals winning % against teams with above and below .500 records and gave them the Reds schedule, they still come out with 35.5 wins. The Cardinals will play a much easier schedule than they have to this point but that doesn't necessarily mean they'll win as many as the Reds have against lesser opponents.

The Reds will face a slightly tougher schedule than they have to this point but not much. While they only play the Astros and Pirates another 12 times total I believe, they still have 16 with the Brewers and 9 with the Cubs. That's 37 games between the four.

Hoosier Red
06-15-2010, 01:47 PM
Some other interesting notes I found by projecting the winning percentage and the schedule.

If the Reds continue the same winning percentages against winning(.444) and losing(.653) teams and play the NL Central average number of winning and losing teams the remainder of the year(The average NL Central team has played 51.5% of its games against a team with a winning record, 48.5% against a team with a losing record. :

Above .500 Below.500 Remaining Wins Total Wins
51 47 53.147 89.147

If the Reds' schedule adjusts to be a bit harder, to bring them in with the NL Central average(to this point.) for the course of the whole season.(The Average NL central team has played 51% of its games against a winning team, and 49% against a losing team. Carried over to a whole season this would equal 84 against a team with .500 or better, 78 against a losing team.)

Above .500 Below.500 Remaining Wins Total Wins
57 41 51.917 87.917