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View Full Version : John Erardi article: When will Reds shut down Mike Leake?



OnBaseMachine
06-18-2010, 08:47 PM
Interesting stuff from Erardi.


The Reds are aware of the Verducci Effect, but say they don’t have a ceiling on Leake.

Yet, clearly, they are taking care of him: He’s thrown over 100 pitches only five times, and never more than 108. On five different occasions, he has received at least one extra day between starts.

One could imagine the Reds allowing Leake to go to 186 innings (an extra two starts), because of his pitch efficiency. How late in the season would “186” take him?

Sept. 10, three weeks before the end of the regular season. That would mean only 15 more starts for Leake, using his present average of 6.5 innings per start.

If he keeps up pace of averaging 15.4 pitches per inning, he’ll have thrown about 2,900 pitches by the time he hits 186 innings. That’s reasonable -- Arroyo has averaged around 3,300 to 3,400 pitches over the past three seasons.


to read the rest:
http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20100618/SPT04/306180044/Reds-How-long-can-Leake-pitch-

Will M
06-18-2010, 09:03 PM
i mentioned this in another thread but i'll bring it up here: why not move Leake to the bullpen when Volquez returns? that way we limit his innings but he can still help the team down the stretch.

i would really like the team to add a starter via trade who is at least a #3. Lee, Oswalt, Haren,etc would be great but we need help.
The rotation could be:
1. acquisition
2. Volquez
3. Arroyo
4. Cueto
5. depends on whether Bailey is dealt for #1 (and if healthy). if Bailey was part of a deal we could use Harang here :(. Or maybe Wood, Maloney, Lecure,etc.

The pen could be Cordero, Rhodes, Leake plus a potential return of Burton & Bray. I'd add another decent arm here via trade as well.

Chip R
06-18-2010, 09:07 PM
i mentioned this in another thread but i'll bring it up here: why not move Leake to the bullpen when Volquez returns? that way we limit his innings but he can still help the team down the stretch.



He couldn't do worse than some of the other jokers in there now.

kaldaniels
06-18-2010, 09:37 PM
I'd like to skip Leake next chance we get (based on off days)

alexad
06-19-2010, 04:37 PM
How do you stop using one of your better starters? That is my only question. If you are in it to win it, you have to use him. Unless he continues to pitch badly the next few starts. Bailey is going to have to fit in somewhere in the rotation. Volquez also. I am not sure Leake will be the odd man out. If he is not starting in Cincy, He needs to be starting in AAA. Putting him in the bullpen is not what you want to do with a young starting arm. Just my thoughts.

mth123
06-19-2010, 04:43 PM
How do you stop using one of your better starters? That is my only question. If you are in it to win it, you have to use him. Unless he continues to pitch badly the next few starts. Bailey is going to have to fit in somewhere in the rotation. Volquez also. I am not sure Leake will be the odd man out. If he is not starting in Cincy, He needs to be starting in AAA. Putting him in the bullpen is not what you want to do with a young starting arm. Just my thoughts.

Or you shut him down when his innings reach a certain point. I'm not for putting Leake in the pen either FWIW, but you can't push him into the danger zone simply because the team is in contention. Kid is 22.

KronoRed
06-19-2010, 04:46 PM
If the Reds are close they won't shut Leake down, they will ride that arm and cross their fingers.

dunner13
06-19-2010, 10:39 PM
It seems like leake threw a pretty high number of innings last year between college and AFL. Anyone know the exact number?
I do think that because of his style of throwing he will be less prone to injuries. Hes not a max effort guy like volquez or bailey and I think that will make it easier for him to put more innings and wear on his arm.

Redmachine2003
06-19-2010, 11:25 PM
Yea lets let a starter pitch out of the bull pen. Didn't we do that with Harang once and that worked out really well. Never been a fan of bouncing pitchers around like that. IMO a start should stay a starter unless he becomes ineffective and he goes to the bullpen for good or if like pitchers with tommyjohn they can be used out of the pen to build arm strength but you can't abuse them. I think it is funny that they even use how many innings they pitch as a measuring stick. It should be more about how many pitches thrown. I think a higher pitch count in stressfull situations and max effort type of pitchers take more of a toll then a pitcher like Leak who keeps his pitch counts down and only throws about 90% effort.

dougdirt
06-20-2010, 02:14 AM
It seems like leake threw a pretty high number of innings last year between college and AFL. Anyone know the exact number?
I do think that because of his style of throwing he will be less prone to injuries. Hes not a max effort guy like volquez or bailey and I think that will make it easier for him to put more innings and wear on his arm.

It was 160, but I don't think you can add the two together. He stopped pitching in June, then didn't pitch in the AFL until October. He threw 142 at Arizona State. That is the target number I would go with as for what he threw last year.

reds1869
06-20-2010, 08:31 AM
Innings pitched is just as overrated as pitch count when it comes to pitcher fatigue. All innings pitched are not created equal, and all arms don't respond the same way. Leake has a nice, easy motion that can go a lot longer than someone with a more violent motion. Monitor him carefully and if he shows signs of wearing down, then you skip his spot in the rotation. Shutting him down based on an arbitrary number is silly.

mth123
06-20-2010, 08:44 AM
Innings pitched is just as overrated as pitch count when it comes to pitcher fatigue. All innings pitched are not created equal, and all arms don't respond the same way. Leake has a nice, easy motion that can go a lot longer than someone with a more violent motion. Monitor him carefully and if he shows signs of wearing down, then you skip his spot in the rotation. Shutting him down based on an arbitrary number is silly.

Not sure I agree. He had that same nice motion in college against even easier competition. Even at the same number of IP as last year, his workload would seem to have increased and adding 30 IP would seem like a big increase if Leake 2009 is the baseline.

I know many doubt the Verducci effect and I heven't seen enough evidence myself to judge its validity. But, IMO, even if there is sketchy evidence that it could be true, the Reds should follow its guidelines. Young high ceiling arms in their under control years is the Reds ticket out of loserville. I'd do everything possible to keep them healthy. If that means following a cautionary guideline of a theory that hasn't been completely proven, I'd do it w/o question. They didn't with Bailey and he's hurting now.

Leake's absolute max should be 175 IP IMO. If the theory is later proven as hogwash and shutting him down is unnecessary, who cares?

reds1869
06-20-2010, 09:45 AM
Not sure I agree. He had that same nice motion in college against even easier competition. Even at the same number of IP as last year, his workload would seem to have increased and adding 30 IP would seem like a big increase if Leake 2009 is the baseline.

I know many doubt the Verducci effect and I heven't seen enough evidence myself to judge its validity. But, IMO, even if there is sketchy evidence that it could be true, the Reds should follow its guidelines. Young high ceiling arms in their under control years is the Reds ticket out of loserville. I'd do everything possible to keep them healthy. If that means following a cautionary guideline of a theory that hasn't been completely proven, I'd do it w/o question. They didn't with Bailey and he's hurting now.

Leake's absolute max should be 175 IP IMO. If the theory is later proven as hogwash and shutting him down is unnecessary, who cares?

As I said, if you even suspect Leake is wearing down, flip the switch. They didn't do that with Bailey and are paying the price. But setting an arbitrary number is not the Reds "ticket out of loserville," it is the ticket to shutting down one of your best arms just in case.

kaldaniels
06-20-2010, 10:39 AM
As I said, if you even suspect Leake is wearing down, flip the switch. They didn't do that with Bailey and are paying the price. But setting an arbitrary number is not the Reds "ticket out of loserville," it is the ticket to shutting down one of your best arms just in case.

Not sure if the Bailey comp is a good one. Homer was arguably the best pitcher in baseball over the last few weeks of 2009...he wasn't wearing down.

alexad
06-20-2010, 01:10 PM
Pitchers use to pitch in a four man rotation. If you want to shut down pitchers, then we need to start going to 6 man rotations. If the kids is good enough to be in the bigs, and the team is in contention, you have to pitch him. It is about winning now for the Reds, not in the future. This team needs to start playing and thinking like a team in contention, not a pretender.

mth123
06-20-2010, 01:32 PM
Pitchers use to pitch in a four man rotation. If you want to shut down pitchers, then we need to start going to 6 man rotations. If the kids is good enough to be in the bigs, and the team is in contention, you have to pitch him. It is about winning now for the Reds, not in the future. This team needs to start playing and thinking like a team in contention, not a pretender.

He's 22. This isn't an argument that pitchers can't pitch more innings, its that building them to that level at a young age needs to be done gradually. Too much too soon, 142 IP in 2009 against college hitters is alot less stressful than IP against major leaguers. I'd say a jump to 175 IP is quite a big one given the competition. Over-stress that arm and run the risk that it doesn't bounce back in 2011. Then we see the same pattern that we've seen so many times. Start the following season with reduced arm strength. Make minor changes to compensate which shows up as reduced command. Then after enough IP with the altered motion, the pain starts coming on.

Leake ought to be a workhorse most of his career, but lets go easy getting there. 175 IP in 2010, 200 to 210 IP in 2011 and as much as he can take after that when he'll be the ripe old age of 24. Why risk it right here at the beginning of his career?

dougdirt
06-20-2010, 02:12 PM
Pitchers use to pitch in a four man rotation. If you want to shut down pitchers, then we need to start going to 6 man rotations. If the kids is good enough to be in the bigs, and the team is in contention, you have to pitch him. It is about winning now for the Reds, not in the future. This team needs to start playing and thinking like a team in contention, not a pretender.

And every team, contender or pretender would do the same thing the Reds are going to do. They all do it.

Mario-Rijo
06-20-2010, 03:24 PM
It was 160, but I don't think you can add the two together. He stopped pitching in June, then didn't pitch in the AFL until October. He threw 142 at Arizona State. That is the target number I would go with as for what he threw last year.

And lets not forget he had elbow tendinitis with that workload at the end of his college season. I'm for letting him pitch out of the pen at some point not sure when is the right time but the Verducci guidelines seem to be a good set of guidelines. So let him get IDK 135 innings as a starter and then move him to the pen for 30 or so.

dfs
06-20-2010, 06:41 PM
Or you shut him down when his innings reach a certain point. I'm not for putting Leake in the pen either FWIW, but you can't push him into the danger zone simply because the team is in contention. Kid is 22.

Is there any precedent for a team in contention behaving this way?

You read the same thing with respect to Chapman. Teams just don't behave this way. We can talk about self interest and hold our breath till we're blue in the face ......team just don't behave this way.

mth123
06-20-2010, 07:00 PM
Is there any precedent for a team in contention behaving this way?

You read the same thing with respect to Chapman. Teams just don't behave this way. We can talk about self interest and hold our breath till we're blue in the face ......team just don't behave this way.

Joba Chamberlin?

membengal
06-20-2010, 09:08 PM
Yes, Chamberlain.

And, the Yankees pitched Phil Hughes out of the pen last year too on their World Series winning team.

The Cardinals with Wainwright when they won the World Series. The Red Sox and how they broke in Bucholz? Johan Santana spent time in the pen before he became a starter in Minnesota.

Maybe those are not exact parallels, but I think the notion of limiting innings for young starters is not a foreign notion at any rate.

ETA: Does how the Reds used Mario Soto in 1979 for their Division winner count?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sotoma01.shtml

dfs
06-21-2010, 11:33 AM
Yes, Chamberlain.

And, the Yankees pitched Phil Hughes out of the pen last year too on their World Series winning team.

The Cardinals with Wainwright when they won the World Series. The Red Sox and how they broke in Bucholz? Johan Santana spent time in the pen before he became a starter in Minnesota.


But aren't those all examples of a contending team with a full rotation finding a high leverage use for a young arm in the bullpen?

Isn't that very different than taking a young guy out of the rotation and shutting him down?

RedsMan3203
06-21-2010, 10:05 PM
An update from Baker on Leake


m_sheldon
One thing I didn't put in blog was Baker on Leake. "This is uncharted territory he’s about to enter in right now. We’re going to skip him a few times and help him stay strong. He trains hard. He’s one of the first guys out here every day.”

mth123
06-21-2010, 10:21 PM
This will probably sound dirty, but I wonder if the Reds will skip Leake right before the All Star break and send him down to AAA for two weeks while Volquez takes his spot. It won't be enough to avoid Super 2, but it would delay Free Agency for a year.

Superdude
06-22-2010, 12:24 AM
This will probably sound dirty, but I wonder if the Reds will skip Leake right before the All Star break and send him down to AAA for two weeks while Volquez takes his spot. It won't be enough to avoid Super 2, but it would delay Free Agency for a year.

Leake doesn't seem like the greedy type, so keeping a good relationship with him might be important if we want to re-sign him eventually. Finding a loophole to potentially rip him out of cash is probably not the best way to to do that. Just another thought.

mth123
06-22-2010, 06:18 AM
Leake doesn't seem like the greedy type, so keeping a good relationship with him might be important if we want to re-sign him eventually. Finding a loophole to potentially rip him out of cash is probably not the best way to to do that. Just another thought.

I agree, but nothing a major league team does or could do surprises me.

Chip R
06-22-2010, 10:28 AM
Leake doesn't seem like the greedy type, so keeping a good relationship with him might be important if we want to re-sign him eventually. Finding a loophole to potentially rip him out of cash is probably not the best way to to do that. Just another thought.


The Players Association would file a grievance so fast on this that it would make your head spin.

lollipopcurve
06-22-2010, 10:33 AM
Yanks are skipping Phil Hughes this week to keep his innings down. He's pitching well and they're in a three-team race for the division lead. Reds, take note.

REDREAD
06-22-2010, 12:17 PM
I think the Reds are doing the right thing.

Limit his workload on each start. Occasionally give him an extra day of rest, etc.

If they continue to do this, I have no problem at all with letting Leake stay in the rotation for the last 3 weeks of the season. As long as he's healthy and has not hit the wall yet.

The college season is much shorter than the pro season. Those innings are getting spread out over a longer period of time. The Reds are pretty much limiting him to 100 pitches every time out. They are treating him with kid gloves.

I agree, if he's pitching this well in the last month of the season, with no signs of fatigue, there's no team in baseball that would shut him down.

Ron Madden
06-23-2010, 06:08 AM
The Reds must take care of their young arms.

It would be inexcusable to risk Leaks future for the chance at a few more wins this season.

Razor Shines
06-23-2010, 07:51 AM
The Reds must take care of their young arms.

It would be inexcusable to risk Leaks future for the chance at a few more wins this season.

Yep. I like what the Yankees are doing with Hughes. As stated above they're skipping him now and will skip him again right before the all star break. I hope the Reds follow something similar to that.

redsmetz
06-23-2010, 08:33 AM
I was thinking about this reading the paper this morning, but I wonder if it might not work to Leake and Volquez into a bit of a tandem as starters, flip-flopping their starts with the other doing a relief stint in between. Structurally I don't know what that looks like or if it's plausible, for that matter, but it's just a thought.

reds1869
06-23-2010, 08:37 AM
I was thinking about this reading the paper this morning, but I wonder if it might not work to Leake and Volquez into a bit of a tandem as starters, flip-flopping their starts with the other doing a relief stint in between. Structurally I don't know what that looks like or if it's plausible, for that matter, but it's just a thought.

An interesting thought at that. I like the idea much better than simply pulling the plug.

OnBaseMachine
06-23-2010, 03:17 PM
From Mark Sheldon:

*Mike Leake is being pushed back from his next turn in the rotation and will not pitch in the Cleveland series. Leake will start on June 29 vs. the Phillies. Aaron Harang, Sam LeCure and Bronson Arroyo will start the next three games vs. the Indians.

http://marksheldon.mlblogs.com/archives/2010/06/volquez_chapman_leake_--_news.html

edit - nm.

nemesis
06-23-2010, 03:20 PM
From Mark Sheldon:

*Mike Leake is being pushed back from his next turn in the rotation and will not pitch in the Cleveland series. Leake will start on June 29 vs. the Phillies. Aaron Harang, Sam LeCure and Bronson Arroyo will start the next three games vs. the Indians.

http://marksheldon.mlblogs.com/archives/2010/06/volquez_chapman_leake_--_news.html

I don't like that move. The Phillies are a much tougher matchup. I'd rather Leake start vs the Indians and then skip the Phillies.


Can't do it in the Phillies series unless you short the rest of the pitching staff on rest. The day off tomorrow makes it possible. Has to be Cleveland.

OnBaseMachine
06-23-2010, 03:24 PM
My bad. I was thinking the Reds had a day off after the Philly series. I forgot they start a four game series in Chicago after the Phillies leave town.

OnBaseMachine
06-23-2010, 03:35 PM
From John Fay:


–Mike Leake will be skipped for Cleveland series. Leake is on pace to pitch 200 innings this season. The Reds don’t want him to pitch nearly that many. “We have a round number,” Walt Jocketty said. “Probably 170, but it’s not etched in stone.”

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/06/23/leake-to-be-skipped-chapman-to-pen/?GID=JWsRvP2qTVx2O9MUd2xwrwPhgUQQXc39Njy3OMBlWiM%3 D

Ron Madden
06-23-2010, 04:01 PM
From Mark Sheldon:

*Mike Leake is being pushed back from his next turn in the rotation and will not pitch in the Cleveland series. Leake will start on June 29 vs. the Phillies. Aaron Harang, Sam LeCure and Bronson Arroyo will start the next three games vs. the Indians.

http://marksheldon.mlblogs.com/archives/2010/06/volquez_chapman_leake_--_news.html

Makes sense.

kaldaniels
06-23-2010, 05:29 PM
I'd like to skip Leake next chance we get (based on off days)

Thats what I'm talking about!

HeatherC1212
06-23-2010, 11:31 PM
That sounds like a good plan to me. Anything to help Mike get through the whole season without wearing him out. :)

Big Klu
06-24-2010, 02:30 AM
From Mark Sheldon:

*Mike Leake is being pushed back from his next turn in the rotation and will not pitch in the Cleveland series. Leake will start on June 29 vs. the Phillies. Aaron Harang, Sam LeCure and Bronson Arroyo will start the next three games vs. the Indians.

http://marksheldon.mlblogs.com/archives/2010/06/volquez_chapman_leake_--_news.html

edit - nm.

Will he be available to PH/PR? :)

Redsfan320
06-24-2010, 10:11 AM
If this has anything to do with the Harang/LeCure swap, meaning I have to watch Harang again tomorrow when I go (got stuck with him at the last game I went to), then I'm TICKED.

320

HeatherC1212
06-24-2010, 10:28 AM
If this has anything to do with the Harang/LeCure swap, meaning I have to watch Harang again tomorrow when I go (got stuck with him at the last game I went to), then I'm TICKED.

320

I think tomorrow night was always supposed to be Aaron's turn in the rotation just looking at the days between starts. I think TPTB said they were going to try and give some of the younger guys a day or two between starts when they can during the season and with the off day tomorrow, they can give LeCure an extra rest day along with the two extra days they're giving Mike Leake. It's not a bad idea for those guys but I understand being bummed about the slight change in the rotation.

gonelong
06-24-2010, 10:48 AM
Nice to see them taking care of the young man.

dfs
06-24-2010, 11:23 AM
Will he be available to PH/PR? :)

Made me smile. Thanks.