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View Full Version : Volquez to Make Season Debut July 7th vs. Mets



reds44
06-18-2010, 09:00 PM
Barring any setbacks, of course. Figured this deserved it's own thread:


johnfayman Pencil Volquez in for July 7 vs. Mets. "That's what I got, barring setbacks," Baker said. #reds

Matt700wlw
06-18-2010, 09:04 PM
From Fay's blog.

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/06/18/volquez-sharp-again/

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2010, 09:07 PM
Batsfan just posted this in tonight's minor league game thread:

Edinson Volquez is in Louisville and is expected to start Tuesday vs. Toledo, according to the bats announcer Matt Andrews.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2124075&postcount=19

TRF
06-18-2010, 09:09 PM
Smacks of desperation. Way too soon.

getting a Jose Rijo vibe.

pedro
06-18-2010, 09:16 PM
Smacks of desperation. Way too soon.

getting a Jose Rijo vibe.

Based on what information?

Do you honestly think the Reds would let him pitch if they thought it would jeopordize his career?

Benihana
06-18-2010, 09:16 PM
I don't like it.

My guess is they want to see if he can be reliable before the trade deadline, before deciding whether or not they'll need to pay up (both in prospects and money) for another starter via trade.

Unfortunately, if he remains healthy and effective, Volquez will only replace Leake's spot. The Reds still need a TOR arm if they are to do anything substantial.

Spring~Fields
06-18-2010, 09:26 PM
No matter which way the Reds and Volquez went at this time, I am going to have some insecure feelings, because I want them both to do, really very well and worry if he will be alright.

Just like anyone, I hope this isn’t rushing him.

mth123
06-18-2010, 09:40 PM
3 Starts at AAA, his Start on the 7th and then the All Star Break where he can get some extra rest before going again. I don't really think this is rushing him all that much. The original plan had him going 4 more starts in the minors and then his rehab time would have run out and brought him up anyway. Get him that last start in the majors instead of AAA and then give him an extra day or two. No big deal IMO.

Its more about how he'll be used afterwards and I don't think coming up and getting this one start before the break will change that.

JaxRed
06-18-2010, 09:42 PM
Someone do the math and figure out what starter would have been going then....

Redsfan320
06-18-2010, 09:46 PM
Someone do the math and figure out what starter would have been going then....

Take a guess... the Leakester. :(

320

Screwball
06-18-2010, 09:47 PM
Someone do the math and figure out what starter would have been going then....

If I'm doing it right, then July 7th would fall on Mike Leake's start.

TRF
06-18-2010, 09:52 PM
Based on what information?

Do you honestly think the Reds would let him pitch if they thought it would jeopordize his career?

you get the word "vibe" right? it FEELS too soon. I have zero information. I do have the benefit (same as the Reds) of history. I don't need to even look that far back, just look to Liriano's 2009 season.

JMO, but it is too soon.

OnBaseMachine
06-18-2010, 09:53 PM
From John Fay's blog:


That could be the result of better mechanics. Volquez came to Cincinnati before beginning the rehab assignment, so pitching coach Bryan Price could check his mechanics.

“We wanted to make sure his mechanics were right,” Baker said. “Some guys come back better and stronger after they’re hurt . . . Guys get more mechanically sound because they learn how to throw more correctly.

“We saw Volquez before when he was flailing arms and legs. He’s probably more under control and more sound.”

Volquez will start when he returns.

“That’s what best for him in the long run,” Baker said. “We’ve got a decision to make when it happens. Those are good decisions to make. When he comes back that’s like making a trade for an All-Star, which he was, through a non-trade.”


http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/06/18/volquez-could-be-back-on-july-7/

camisadelgolf
06-18-2010, 09:58 PM
Someone do the math and figure out what starter would have been going then....
If the Reds don't skip anyone's start because of the off day on the 24th, it's due to be Leake's day to start. If they skip LeCure to keep Harang and the rest of the rotation on a regular schedule, it's Arroyo's day to start.

fearofpopvol1
06-18-2010, 10:06 PM
I don't like that they've already set his MLB debut. That just seems like an enormous amount of unnecessary pressure. Why not see how he does in Louisville a couple times first before announcing his debut?

TheNext44
06-18-2010, 10:22 PM
I don't like that they've already set his MLB debut. That just seems like an enormous amount of unnecessary pressure. Why not see how he does in Louisville a couple times first before announcing his debut?

They haven't. He's penciled in "barring setbacks."

I still think it's too soon. I actually thought August was too soon. But if he does start, I am glad to see them take advantage of the All-Star break to give Leake some extra rest.

fearofpopvol1
06-18-2010, 10:30 PM
They haven't. He's penciled in "barring setbacks."

I still think it's too soon. I actually thought August was too soon. But if he does start, I am glad to see them take advantage of the All-Star break to give Leake some extra rest.

Right, but it's basically the same thing. Why even say that now? Why not announce it until Volquez has proven he's ready? That's a lot of pressure to put on him. And it's setting the bar high to the fanbase too.

Maybe it will work out, but a big :thumbdown to this approach.

Raisor
06-18-2010, 10:52 PM
Right, but it's basically the same thing. Why even say that now? Why not announce it until Volquez has proven he's ready? That's a lot of pressure to put on him. And it's setting the bar high to the fanbase too.

Maybe it will work out, but a big :thumbdown to this approach.


Maybe Volquez works best with set goals?

fearofpopvol1
06-18-2010, 10:54 PM
Maybe Volquez works best with set goals?

Goals? Fine. But they can be "private" goals. Why make it public where he's going to be under pressure by the fans and the media?

Seems like a bad idea to me.

TheNext44
06-18-2010, 11:04 PM
Goals? Fine. But they can be "private" goals. Why make it public where he's going to be under pressure by the fans and the media?

Seems like a bad idea to me.

They haven't made it public. It's just Baker answering Fay's question. No official announcement, just Baker with this quote, "That's what I got, barring setbacks." And we don't even know what the question was. He was probably just confirming what everyone else knows, that that is the timetable for his return, barring any setbacks.

reds44
06-19-2010, 12:00 AM
He's going to make (at least) 5 minor league starts before being called up. How many starts wouldn't be too soon?

redsfandan
06-19-2010, 12:09 AM
It's sooner than I expected but I'm more concerned with how they use him once he's up. I could see Dusty pushing Volquez in his 2nd start back if he just does ok in his 1st start back. That's what I'm most afraid of. Dusty pushing him too far, too soon.

fearofpopvol1
06-19-2010, 12:32 AM
They haven't made it public. It's just Baker answering Fay's question. No official announcement, just Baker with this quote, "That's what I got, barring setbacks." And we don't even know what the question was. He was probably just confirming what everyone else knows, that that is the timetable for his return, barring any setbacks.

Dusty speaking to Fay, and Fay reporting it might as well be "public." It's not a press release, but it might as well be an unofficial one.

I mean heck, read the title of this thread.

TheNext44
06-19-2010, 01:17 AM
Dusty speaking to Fay, and Fay reporting it might as well be "public." It's not a press release, but it might as well be an unofficial one.

I mean heck, read the title of this thread.

Read the first post that follows the title.

All that is public is that Volquez is on pace to start on July 7th, barring any setbacks. I don't see how that puts any pressure on him. It's not like the made that game, Volquez Bobblehead night. lol

I agree that it would not be wise to anoint a date as his return date, but I just don't see how the Reds are guilty of that.

fearofpopvol1
06-19-2010, 01:23 AM
Read the first post that follows the title.

All that is public is that Volquez is on pace to start on July 7th, barring any setbacks. I don't see how that puts any pressure on him. It's not like the made that game, Volquez Bobblehead night. lol

I agree that it would not be wise to anoint a date as his return date, but I just don't see how the Reds are guilty of that.

Dusty is as good as a spokesperson for the team IMO. He's putting it out there. How noteworthy him telling Fay about it is debatable, but he still floated it out there. I think it was a bad idea.

GAC
06-19-2010, 08:09 AM
I listened to Lance yesterday on WLW, and he was presenting the argument... and I have to admit some sound reasoning.... as to why the Reds should seriously go after Cliff Lee by the trading deadline.

But the Reds won't do it because WE ARE adding a starting pitcher by the trading deadline, and his name is Volquez.

They need to address this bullpen.

mth123
06-19-2010, 08:27 AM
I listened to Lance yesterday on WLW, and he was presenting the argument... and I have to admit some sound reasoning.... as to why the Reds should seriously go after Cliff Lee by the trading deadline.

But the Reds won't do it because WE ARE adding a starting pitcher by the trading deadline, and his name is Volquez.

They need to address this bullpen.

When Jocketty says he doesn't have enough bullets, I think he's got payroll on his mind and not necessarily prospects. The Reds have a number of prospects close to the majors, redundant with either young major leaguers already on the team or other prospects at AAA and could easily put together a package that matches or beats the packages that Lee has already been dealt for twice in the last 10 months or so without damaging the present or near future of the Reds. The problem is any deal for a top starter probably requires the Reds including Harang in the deal going the other way. A team like the Astros in need of 4 or 5 guys to jump start the rebuild might be willing to take him in exchange for moving Oswalt and saving some cash overall and getting 4 or 5 kids along with Harang. If the Astros simply try to deal Oswalt for kids, I think his contract would limit them to one good prospect and a couple filler guys. From the Reds that may be say Alonso, Fisher and Negron or something along those lines. If they take Harang however, the deal might be Alonso, Wood, Heisey along with Harang and maybe a guy like Fisher or Del Rosario.

The Mariniers, OTOH, aren't facing the rebuild job that Houston is and probably would not be receptive to a deal like that and would want Alonso, Wood and a couple other guys for Lee with no big contract going back the other way. The Reds could afford the players, but I suspect the payroll is out of the question.

nate
06-19-2010, 10:01 AM
I listened to Lance yesterday on WLW, and he was presenting the argument... and I have to admit some sound reasoning.... as to why the Reds should seriously go after Cliff Lee by the trading deadline.

They absolutely should. Not only do they have to shore up the "LeBailey" spot, but Leake isn't going to be throwing as many innings as they need him to. Getting Volquez back AND Lee would redifine the term, "bolster."


But the Reds won't do it because WE ARE adding a starting pitcher by the trading deadline, and his name is Volquez.

They need to address this bullpen.

They do.

Cedric
06-19-2010, 11:08 AM
Who cares about the bullpen when you have terrible starting pitching?

Volquez needs to start and that's pretty obvious to me.

Scrap Irony
06-19-2010, 11:32 AM
When Jocketty says he doesn't have enough bullets, I think he's got payroll on his mind and not necessarily prospects.

Did I miss where Jocketty said this? If so, it's disappointing.

Falls City Beer
06-19-2010, 12:31 PM
Who cares about the bullpen when you have terrible starting pitching?

Volquez needs to start and that's pretty obvious to me.

Yep. It's like complaining about the aerodynamics of the design, when the car is lacking an engine and wheels.

traderumor
06-19-2010, 12:51 PM
Rehab from TJ surgery is not the same. Guys are recovering quicker and coming back stronger. A lot of opinions seem to be stuck in the 70s when the surgery was new. They're pushing 40 years of practice and improvements in both theory and technology.

RedEye
06-19-2010, 08:56 PM
Rehab from TJ surgery is not the same. Guys are recovering quicker and coming back stronger. A lot of opinions seem to be stuck in the 70s when the surgery was new. They're pushing 40 years of practice and improvements in both theory and technology.

Absolutely. But I think it depends on the person. Liriano, for example, was not close to ready when they first tried to bring him back. Then he was flat-out ineffective for a full season. He's finally returned to form this year, but it took a good three years. I don't think we can assume that Volquez wil be both healthy and effective when he returns. There's a chance, but it's not something to bank on.

traderumor
06-19-2010, 09:04 PM
Absolutely. But I think it depends on the person. Liriano, for example, was not close to ready when they first tried to bring him back. Then he was flat-out ineffective for a full season. He's finally returned to form this year, but it took a good three years. I don't think we can assume that Volquez wil be both healthy and effective when he returns. There's a chance, but it's not something to bank on.What you described would be the exception. The norm is shorter recovery time, sometimes less than a year, and at least similar or more effective post-injury. Anything medical always depends on the person, all I'm saying is it is reasonable to expect that the Reds are not being overly aggressive, but that Volquez is following the path of many others who have had this surgery.

A real wild card in all this is the pitcher's confidence in his arm doing what he needs it to do without breaking down again. It seems like Volquez is jumping that hurdle easily.

Captain Hook
06-19-2010, 10:42 PM
I share some of the same concerns as the rest of you but this is good news.I think by the sound of it I might be the only one excited for July 7th to get here.Best thing of all is that the Reds are the only contending team in baseball that won't have to add payroll or trade prospects in order to add an ace starter to their rotation before the trade deadline.

Redsfan320
06-19-2010, 10:59 PM
I think by the sound of it I might be the only one excited for July 7th to get here.

Don't worry, you're not. I remember how much fun it was watching him pitch, and can't wait to see it again. :thumbup:

320

GAC
06-20-2010, 05:39 AM
The problem is any deal for a top starter probably requires the Reds including Harang in the deal going the other way.

Why does Harang have to be in the equation? Make the investment in Lee, don't exercise the club option on Aaron for 2011 KNOWING you're going to then clear 10.75M (minus the 2M buyout) off the books at season's end.


The Mariniers, OTOH, aren't facing the rebuild job that Houston is and probably would not be receptive to a deal like that and would want Alonso, Wood and a couple other guys for Lee with no big contract going back the other way. The Reds could afford the players, but I suspect the payroll is out of the question.

I have no idea what the M's needs are; but besides some of the prospects in our system, I wouldn't exclude offering a kid like Cueto or Bailey in that mix as long as I could negotiate with Lee and get him to sign a multi-year deal.

I thought it was posted somewhere, maybe I'm mistaken, that Lee wasn't going to resign with the M's, so therefore the M's want to trade him before the deadline in order to get the most back for him, other then letting him just walk and get draft picks? Now isn't that, at least in the past, Jocketty's forte?

IMO, the problem is the people "behind" Walt in Red's management.

I personally don't think they will add any starting pitching from the market, but will stand pat waiting for the development and maturity of the youth centered around the likes Volquez, Cueto, Leake, Chapman, and keeping the fingers crossed on Bailey and others. Harang is a goner, and most likely Arroyo too at some point over the next year.

mth123
06-20-2010, 08:30 AM
Why does Harang have to be in the equation? Make the investment in Lee, don't exercise the club option on Aaron for 2011 KNOWING you're going to then clear 10.75M (minus the 2M buyout) off the books at season's end.



I have no idea what the M's needs are; but besides some of the prospects in our system, I wouldn't exclude offering a kid like Cueto or Bailey in that mix as long as I could negotiate with Lee and get him to sign a multi-year deal.

I thought it was posted somewhere, maybe I'm mistaken, that Lee wasn't going to resign with the M's, so therefore the M's want to trade him before the deadline in order to get the most back for him, other then letting him just walk and get draft picks? Now isn't that, at least in the past, Jocketty's forte?

IMO, the problem is the people "behind" Walt in Red's management.

I personally don't think they will add any starting pitching from the market, but will stand pat waiting for the development and maturity of the youth centered around the likes Volquez, Cueto, Leake, Chapman, and keeping the fingers crossed on Bailey and others. Harang is a goner, and most likely Arroyo too at some point over the next year.

I think the Reds are at or near the payroll limit for 2010. Harang and Arroyo will likely both be gone in 2011 but that doesn't help the 2010 budget. The Reds won't add a big salary w/o subtracting one IMO and that is why those "people behind the wall" are an obstacle. To improve the team enough for them to matter in September, they need a TOR starter and to acquire one they are going to need to off-load a salary. I think the easiest way is to swap salaries with Harang going in the deal for the TOR guy and the Reds adding a couple extra prospects to get the other team to agree to taking him on. Its possible that they could deal Harang in a separate deal for some minor league fillers, but to get somebody to take his contract the Reds will need to include a couple of their better prospects which would make them unavailable for a deal for the ace they need. It seems to me the only way to acquire the ace they need and make the money work is to build the package around Harang, Alonso, Wood and Heisey. Alonso, Maloney and a couple lesser or lower level guys might be enough to get a pitcher if the Reds are willing to take on some cash, but if the Reds want the other team to pick-up some bucks (or take Harang) they'll need to upgrade Maloney to Wood and add Heisey IMO. Might need to add Lecure as well. I think Bailey's out of option and injury status gives him less trade value than Wood, Maloney or Lecure at this point. He's likely going to be the better pitcher, but probably has more value to the reds than he does ina deal at this point I wouldn't deal Cueto for a rental player.

TheNext44
06-20-2010, 10:33 AM
If the Reds make the playoffs this season, then the three months of salary that any high priced acquisition adds to the payroll would be more than paid for from the additional revenue. Even if they don't, but are in it until the last week, the additional revenue would come close to paying for any added salaries.

I think, or at least hope, that Jocketty has learned that from his days in St. Louis. I don't think payroll will be much of an issue, if they believe that the player(s) acquired would make the Reds serious contenders for the rest of the season.

Falls City Beer
06-20-2010, 12:05 PM
There are infinite reasons to acquire a starter, but the most pressing is that he would allow Leake to skip starts.

mth123
06-20-2010, 12:45 PM
If the Reds make the playoffs this season, then the three months of salary that any high priced acquisition adds to the payroll would be more than paid for from the additional revenue. Even if they don't, but are in it until the last week, the additional revenue would come close to paying for any added salaries.

I think, or at least hope, that Jocketty has learned that from his days in St. Louis. I don't think payroll will be much of an issue, if they believe that the player(s) acquired would make the Reds serious contenders for the rest of the season.

This makes sense, but I don't think it matters. I think they have a payroll figure in mind and won't go over it. They probably have a little room to acquire a middle inning type, but doubt they have room for an ace w/o a subtraction.

RedEye
06-20-2010, 02:34 PM
What you described would be the exception. The norm is shorter recovery time, sometimes less than a year, and at least similar or more effective post-injury. Anything medical always depends on the person, all I'm saying is it is reasonable to expect that the Reds are not being overly aggressive, but that Volquez is following the path of many others who have had this surgery.

A real wild card in all this is the pitcher's confidence in his arm doing what he needs it to do without breaking down again. It seems like Volquez is jumping that hurdle easily.

Agree with you here. I'm also cautiously optimistic that Volquez will have things ironed out when he comes back up to pitch in The Show. We won't really know, however, until he does it successfully--and without injury.

HokieRed
06-20-2010, 02:53 PM
If the Reds make the playoffs this season, then the three months of salary that any high priced acquisition adds to the payroll would be more than paid for from the additional revenue. Even if they don't, but are in it until the last week, the additional revenue would come close to paying for any added salaries.

I think, or at least hope, that Jocketty has learned that from his days in St. Louis. I don't think payroll will be much of an issue, if they believe that the player(s) acquired would make the Reds serious contenders for the rest of the season.


I agree and think this is why you target the guy you can get primarily b/c you're giving the other team salary relief they need: Roy Oswalt. I'd try to give up as little as possible, pay him the rest of the year, refuse to re-up Arroyo and Harang, and go next year with a rotation of Oswalt, Volquez, Cueto, Leake, and whoever wins the last spot.

mdccclxix
06-20-2010, 11:41 PM
Count me as very excited for Volquez's return. :beerme:

He's been my favorite pitcher since the day he was traded for Hamilton. I just always loved that deal for it's gumption and drama and practicality.

When he's back, if he can cut back his strikeout addiction, he can go 7-8 innings more often and still dominate with a good GB rate and great stuff. I think he has a no hitter in him someday, moreso than other Reds.

The benefit of his 7/7 return (aside from the fact he is awesome) is Walt will know better if he does need another starter by 7/31.

I have confidence in the Reds not to rush him, he's simply on a good pace.

edabbs44
06-21-2010, 01:45 PM
I share some of the same concerns as the rest of you but this is good news.I think by the sound of it I might be the only one excited for July 7th to get here.Best thing of all is that the Reds are the only contending team in baseball that won't have to add payroll or trade prospects in order to add an ace starter to their rotation before the trade deadline.

I think most would be excited but I, for one, have tempered expectations. For one, he is coming off big time surgery. In addition, I'm pretty sure many on the board have overrated him due to his debut with Cincy. Since the 2008 ASB, he's been somewhat good but not great. April-June 2008 he was lights out.

I like him in the rotation and am excited that he is on his way back, but moreso for next year rather than this season.

OnBaseMachine
06-21-2010, 02:25 PM
I can't wait until Volquez returns. This guy was one of the most dominant starting pitchers in the league during the 2008 season. He's one of my favorite players to watch. I'm going to try to temper my enthusiasm though because not every pitcher responds the same way after surgery. Francisco Liriano is just now getting back to the Liriano of old. On the flipside, Josh Johnson and Tim Hudson came back strong and pitched well immedately after returning. Who knows how Volquez will do but either way I'm extremely excited about his return.

REDREAD
06-21-2010, 02:44 PM
I think the Reds are at or near the payroll limit for 2010. Harang and Arroyo will likely both be gone in 2011 but that doesn't help the 2010 budget. ...... at this point I wouldn't deal Cueto for a rental player.


I wouldn't give up a significant player like Ceuto for Lee either. The whole reason the Phillies traded Lee is because he wanted a king's ransom to be extended. Lee is going to test FA no matter what the Reds offer. We aren't going to be able to extend him. Therefore, when making proposals for Lee, I consider him as just a half year player.

I am guessing that the Reds are going to let Harang walk at the end of the year, but keep Arroyo.

I agree that it's going to be very difficult to unload Harang at the deadline (whoever said that, maybe it wasn't mth).. Let's face it, he has sucked this year, and IIRC, he has a 2.5 million buyout of his option if traded.
The Reds might be able to trade Harang for a similiar bad contract. Might not be a bad idea if the Reds could score an overpriced but effective reliever.
However, if we are trying to contend this year, the best plan might be to just cross our fingers and hope Harang figures things out before it is too late.

Lastly, I strongly doubt Leake gets bumped from the rotation. LeClure/Bailey is the guy that's going to get bumped.

bucksfan2
06-21-2010, 02:54 PM
I wouldn't give up a significant player like Ceuto for Lee either. The whole reason the Phillies traded Lee is because he wanted a king's ransom to be extended. Lee is going to test FA no matter what the Reds offer. We aren't going to be able to extend him. Therefore, when making proposals for Lee, I consider him as just a half year player.

I am guessing that the Reds are going to let Harang walk at the end of the year, but keep Arroyo.

I agree that it's going to be very difficult to unload Harang at the deadline (whoever said that, maybe it wasn't mth).. Let's face it, he has sucked this year, and IIRC, he has a 2.5 million buyout of his option if traded.
The Reds might be able to trade Harang for a similiar bad contract. Might not be a bad idea if the Reds could score an overpriced but effective reliever.
However, if we are trying to contend this year, the best plan might be to just cross our fingers and hope Harang figures things out before it is too late.

Lastly, I strongly doubt Leake gets bumped from the rotation. LeClure/Bailey is the guy that's going to get bumped.

For a strict rental I would not trade Cueto. But if I were to get involved in a Haren or Carmona trade I wouldn't hesitate to trade Cueto. Actually he probably would be the center piece of any trade that I would put together.

edabbs44
06-21-2010, 03:01 PM
For a strict rental I would not trade Cueto. But if I were to get involved in a Haren or Carmona trade I wouldn't hesitate to trade Cueto. Actually he probably would be the center piece of any trade that I would put together.

Not for me.

I really don't think Haren will be worth the price. I'd love Carmona, but I'm not giving up Cueto for him.

OnBaseMachine
06-21-2010, 03:02 PM
I wouldn't trade Cueto period unless I got knocked over with an offer. He's a league average starter as a 24 year old and has an above average walk and strikeout rates. I'm a Carmona fan but I don't understand why anyone would want to trade Cueto for him. Cueto is younger, they have similar career ERA's (4.49 for Carmona, 4.55 for Cueto), and Cueto has better walk and strikeout rates. I would like to have Carmona in the Reds rotation but not at the expense of Johnny Cueto.

edabbs44
06-21-2010, 03:07 PM
I can't wait until Volquez returns. This guy was one of the most dominant starting pitchers in the league during the 2008 season. He's one of my favorite players to watch. I'm going to try to temper my enthusiasm though because not every pitcher responds the same way after surgery. Francisco Liriano is just now getting back to the Liriano of old. On the flipside, Josh Johnson and Tim Hudson came back strong and pitched well immedately after returning. Who knows how Volquez will do but either way I'm extremely excited about his return.

This is what I was thinking before. He was crazy dominant in the 1st half of '08 and middle of the road since then.

bucksfan2
06-21-2010, 03:34 PM
I wouldn't trade Cueto period unless I got knocked over with an offer. He's a league average starter as a 24 year old and has an above average walk and strikeout rates. I'm a Carmona fan but I don't understand why anyone would want to trade Cueto for him. Cueto is younger, they have similar career ERA's (4.49 for Carmona, 4.55 for Cueto), and Cueto has better walk and strikeout rates. I would like to have Carmona in the Reds rotation but not at the expense of Johnny Cueto.

Cueto also is 5'10" while Carmona is 6'4". Carmona has shown flashes of being dominant over the course of an entire season. Cueto has shown flashes of brilliance at times but thats just it, flashes.

Right now I am selling Cueto high. I don't think he will be anything more than a decent middle of the rotation starter for the rest of his career. Couple that with his mental lapses and his smallish frame and I see no reason to hold onto him unless knocked over with an offer.

Take a step back and remove the jersey from Cueto. Are you going to hold onto and build around a guy who has a career 4.55 ERA, averages 5 2/3 IP/Start, and so far in his career a sub .500 pitcher? I am not saying trade him for peanuts, but I am not going to let him stand in the way of getting a true impact player, who also has more than one season left on their contract.

TRF
06-21-2010, 03:42 PM
Cueto also is 5'10" while Carmona is 6'4". Carmona has shown flashes of being dominant over the course of an entire season. Cueto has shown flashes of brilliance at times but thats just it, flashes.

Right now I am selling Cueto high. I don't think he will be anything more than a decent middle of the rotation starter for the rest of his career. Couple that with his mental lapses and his smallish frame and I see no reason to hold onto him unless knocked over with an offer.

Take a step back and remove the jersey from Cueto. Are you going to hold onto and build around a guy who has a career 4.55 ERA, averages 5 2/3 IP/Start, and so far in his career a sub .500 pitcher? I am not saying trade him for peanuts, but I am not going to let him stand in the way of getting a true impact player, who also has more than one season left on their contract.

Is Carmona that guy? or was his 2007 season an anomaly? And what is up with all the SB's when he pitches? has the catching gotten bad in CLE?

I like his contract, and age, but he K's few, BB's a bunch and hasn't posted 200 IP since 2007. He's certainly NOT the guaranteed impact starter the Reds need, and I don't trade Cueto for him.

OnBaseMachine
06-21-2010, 03:42 PM
I could care less how tall Cueto is. Mike Leake is just as small as Cueto, should we trade him too? Cueto is 24 years old, has three above average to plus pitches, and has basically been a league average starter so far despite being rushed through the minor leagues. His walk and strikeout rates have been above average this season. Those are the type of pitchers you target, not trade.

nate
06-21-2010, 03:47 PM
Having a look through these (http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=3273&playerid2=6893&playerid3=&position=P&page=0&type=full) comparisons, I don't see any metric other than maybe HR/9 where Carmona is or really has been better than Cueto.

If anything, Cueto has been remarkably consistent from year to year and improving. Carmona, neg.

Kc61
06-21-2010, 03:58 PM
Keep in mind that Harang and Arroyo are likely elsewhere next season. The Reds will need five good starters. I don't see trading Cueto so easily.

Bailey is injured and hasn't really broken through. Lecure is probably a long reliever. Owings is a reliever. What is your rotation next year without Cueto, Harang and Arroyo?

Cueto isn't perfect but you need five guys, along with some backup depth.

I would be very reluctant to trade Johnny.

edabbs44
06-21-2010, 04:07 PM
Having a look through these (http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=3273&playerid2=6893&playerid3=&position=P&page=0&type=full) comparisons, I don't see any metric other than maybe HR/9 where Carmona is or really has been better than Cueto.

If anything, Cueto has been remarkably consistent from year to year and improving. Carmona, neg.

Seriously?

TRF
06-21-2010, 04:16 PM
Seriously?

yep. and I agree. Carmona regressed in 2008 and 2009, getting worse each year. His K/9 numbers remind me of Arroyo minus the 30+ starts a year. He's not a lock to be an impact pitcher. You could even say he's been a bit lucky this year.

bucksfan2
06-21-2010, 04:18 PM
Keep in mind that Harang and Arroyo are likely elsewhere next season. The Reds will need five good starters. I don't see trading Cueto so easily.

Bailey is injured and hasn't really broken through. Lecure is probably a long reliever. Owings is a reliever. What is your rotation next year without Cueto, Harang and Arroyo?

Cueto isn't perfect but you need five guys, along with some backup depth.

I would be very reluctant to trade Johnny.

Here is the way I see it. Looking at the 2011 pitching rotation right now you would have to pencil in Cueto, Bailey, Leake, and Chapman. You could also make the argument that LeCure has pitched well enough to be a legit candidate for the 5th rotation spot. You also have the likes of Wood and Maloney who could pitch out of that 5th starters slot. And I also wouldn't toss out the idea of Jocketty adding a guy like Webb. Seems like his type of deal.

But back to the original 4. You can swap Cueto for Carmona, pick up Arroyo's option, and have a staring 5 of Carmona, Arroyo, Bailey, Leake, and Chapman with the likes of LeCure, Wood, Maloney, etc. all waiting in the wings for something to happen. Sure it would be taking on more of the 2011 projected payroll, but they are due to have Arroyo and Harang's contracts off the books anyway in 2011.

TRF
06-21-2010, 04:20 PM
Here is the way I see it. Looking at the 2011 pitching rotation right now you would have to pencil in Cueto, Bailey, Leake, and Chapman. You could also make the argument that LeCure has pitched well enough to be a legit candidate for the 5th rotation spot. You also have the likes of Wood and Maloney who could pitch out of that 5th starters slot. And I also wouldn't toss out the idea of Jocketty adding a guy like Webb. Seems like his type of deal.

But back to the original 4. You can swap Cueto for Carmona, pick up Arroyo's option, and have a staring 5 of Carmona, Arroyo, Bailey, Leake, and Chapman with the likes of LeCure, Wood, Maloney, etc. all waiting in the wings for something to happen. Sure it would be taking on more of the 2011 projected payroll, but they are due to have Arroyo and Harang's contracts off the books anyway in 2011.

You left out Volquez.

edabbs44
06-21-2010, 04:26 PM
yep. and I agree. Carmona regressed in 2008 and 2009, getting worse each year. His K/9 numbers remind me of Arroyo minus the 30+ starts a year. He's not a lock to be an impact pitcher. You could even say he's been a bit lucky this year.

I just thought that the graph was an interesting way to go about this.

Carmona's main issue has been his control in 2008-2009 and he looks to have reigned that in a bit, helping him succeed this season. His contract is favorable, he is a groundball pitcher and is coming over from the AL.

I don't want to get rid of Cueto at all, but Carmona would look good in Cincy.

bucksfan2
06-21-2010, 04:28 PM
You left out Volquez.

Yea I was going to go back and edit my original post.

Here is my thing with Johnny Cueto this season. I have begun to sour on him quite a bit this season. He routinely can't get out of the 6th inning. He throws too many pitches and has too many mental lapses ever to become a great pitcher. To be honest I really haven't seen any sustained improvement or consistency on Cueto's part. I thought after seeing his first handful of big league starts that he was going to be a force to be reckoned with in the NL for years to come. But that hasn't come to fruition.

What Cueto has become is a league average pitcher, who struggles with consistency, as well as a tired arm during the middle of the season. He still has great potential, but right now I a willing to flip that potential for a legit starter. I am willing to trade Cueto to another GM who values/overvalues everything Cueto has.

OnBaseMachine
06-21-2010, 09:29 PM
From John Fay - Amended plan for Volquez


Volquez will throw about 90 pitches in his next start. He’ll throw again on June 29, then probably on July 5 or 6. That still puts him on schedule for return before the All-Star break. The break begins July 11.

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/06/21/amended-plan-for-volquez/

OnBaseMachine
06-24-2010, 01:13 AM
From the Reds website:


The plan is to give Volquez three more starts at Louisville, including his next one on Tuesday. With that timetable, it's likely he won't return until just after the All-Star break.

"We just want him to feel no unnecessary soreness, just normal stuff," Baker said. "It'll be nice to have him back -- not just pitching, but to have him here. He's good for your team."


http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100623&content_id=11488050&notebook_id=11489138&vkey=notebook_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

OnBaseMachine
06-24-2010, 02:53 AM
Article from the Cincinnati Enquirer:


The assignment was to watch Volquez, the ‘08 All Star and 17-game winner, make his third rehab start, and first at Class AAA. After about an inning, watching wasn’t all that critical. The game started at 11:45 a.m., the temperature was 91 degrees.

Normally, that time and temp makes a major leaguer wish for a later wakeup call. Volquez’s first pitch was 97 miles an hour.

Next question.

Bats manager Rick Sweet said something about Volquez not having a great release point on his changeup. Well, OK. He’s coming off Tommy John elbow surgery and he’s melting the radar gun.

Volquez hit 98 once and 97 several times. The release point can be fixed without surgery. Even so, “The more he threw it, the better he got,’’ said Sweet.


http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20100623/COL03/306230091/Reds-swimming-in-pitching-depth

traderumor
06-24-2010, 11:13 AM
Yea I was going to go back and edit my original post.

Here is my thing with Johnny Cueto this season. I have begun to sour on him quite a bit this season. He routinely can't get out of the 6th inning. He throws too many pitches and has too many mental lapses ever to become a great pitcher. To be honest I really haven't seen any sustained improvement or consistency on Cueto's part. I thought after seeing his first handful of big league starts that he was going to be a force to be reckoned with in the NL for years to come. But that hasn't come to fruition.

What Cueto has become is a league average pitcher, who struggles with consistency, as well as a tired arm during the middle of the season. He still has great potential, but right now I a willing to flip that potential for a legit starter. I am willing to trade Cueto to another GM who values/overvalues everything Cueto has.

The biggest thing holding back Cueto is a bad habit that Bryan Price seems close to breaking. Brantley has made much ado about his excessive fall-off to the first base side instead of driving toward the plate consistently. He seems to be getting more consistent with that, but is still fighting regression into the old familiar style. I think that may be the key to unlocking his ability to dominate, its just a matter of him completely getting rid of the old habit on an inning to inning, game to game basis.

nemesis
06-24-2010, 05:33 PM
Cueto has given up 4 or more runs 5 times this season in 15 starts. Carpenter has given up 4 or more runs 4 times. So even the perceived ace of the NL Central has bad games. I feel alot of the problems that the board has with Cueto is perception. First off, Cueto is the #3 starter on this team. It doesn't mean diddly that he has a TOR arm. He is your #3. So the #3 pitcher on the team is 7-2 with a sub 4.00 ERA. Guess how many teams in baseball have a #3 with a winning record, averages 6 inning per game and a sub 4.00 ERA?

Tampa Bay - Price 10 - 3 / 2.45 ERA
CHC WS - Danks 7 - 5 / 3.23 ERA
Oakland - Gonzalez 6 - 5 / 3.89 ERA
Florida - Sanchez 7 - 4 / 3.30 ERA
LA Dodgers - Kuroda 6 - 5 / 3.06 ERA
San Diego - Latos 8 - 4 / 2.93 ERA
San Fran - Zito 7 - 4 / 3.45 ERA
Cincy - Cueto 7 - 2 / 3.98 ERA

Every other pitcher on that list makes his starts in a pitcher friendly or Neutral park at home. 3 pitchers in the NL West with 3 of the 4 team have trouble hitting. So arguably Price is the only player on that list as a true #3 starter having a better season that Cueto and he was a much hyped #1 Draft pick. Out of 30 teams that's 8 starters or just 27% of teams.

More proof that he is trending in the right directions.

In 2008 he averaged 5.2 innings a start with a 9-14 record and a 4.81 ERA. He gave up 1 HR every 6 innings. His BAA was .254. His BB rate was 3.52. His WHIP 1.41. His ERA+ was 92.

In 2009 he averaged 5.2 innings a start with an 11-11 record and a 4.41 ERA. He gave up 1 HR every 7.1 innings. His BAA was .251. His BB rate was 3.2. His WHIP was 1.36. His ERA+ was 97. All positive trends except for innings pitch, which stayed neutral.

This season he has averages 6 innings a start with a 7-2 record and a 3.97 ERA. He is giving up 1 HR every 11.1 innings pitched. A huge positive jump and his Achilles Heal in seasons past. His BAA is .247. His BB rate is 2.7. His WHIP is 1.28. His ERA+ is 106. Every statistical category is a positive trend again.

He has been frustrating to watch at time sure, but this was a kid at 21, had never pitched more than 80 innings at any level in one season his career. He had under 350 innings in the minors in 2 and a half seasons. He has 436 in the same time frame in the Majors. So in 1 and a half seasons since his rookie year...

He has went 18 - 13. Lowered his ERA by 0.84 runs. His HR Rate has improved by 5.1 innings per. Or one less every other start. BAA is .007 lower and trending under .250 for the year. His BB rate is .82 lower per start. So that's 2 less runs a game every other game right there from 1 less BB and one less HR which we all seen happen how many times? His WHIP is .13 lower. Most importantly his ERA+ is 14 points higher. Trending positively in all categories.

Our #1 starter Harang ERA+ is only 81 (Only 4 seasons of 95 ERA+ in 9 seasons) Cueto has 2 in 3.

Our #2 starter Arroyo ERA+ is only 97.

Our combined #4 Starters (LeCure and Bailey) are only 94 and 77.

Our #5 starter Leake is ERA+ of 144

So only Leake is out performing him in the rotation.

Volquez for reference was at ERA+ of 99 when he went down an 138 in his All Star year.

Carmona has had 2 seasons out of 4 below 80 ERA+ and 1 and a half above 120.

Lee has been over 125 ERA+ 5 straight years.

Haren has been over 135 for 3 straight years until dropping to 97 this year.

You don't trade guys of Cueto's talent for equal or less talent. It's a treadmill move. He is the teams second best starter. With Leake being limited that makes him the teams ACE. You can't trade the ace. In 2 years following Cueto's progression, He should be posting a line of around 18 - 4 / 2.85 ERA / 220 Innings / BAA .220 / 50 BB / 210 K's...

In his 5th year. With one year of control left. His value would be off the charts, Santana tradible for anyone you'd want. Are you really ready to give him up for Carmona now? It's a treadmill move at the very ultimate best.

Not good business not good GM'ing if you would.

Give up a Maloney, a LeCure and a Francisco. Not a Cueto for that dredge.

bucksfan2
06-24-2010, 05:47 PM
The biggest thing holding back Cueto is a bad habit that Bryan Price seems close to breaking. Brantley has made much ado about his excessive fall-off to the first base side instead of driving toward the plate consistently. He seems to be getting more consistent with that, but is still fighting regression into the old familiar style. I think that may be the key to unlocking his ability to dominate, its just a matter of him completely getting rid of the old habit on an inning to inning, game to game basis.

I will give you an example yesterday why I am not high on Cueto. He is on his stuff obviously, getting the first 7 out, having an easy time through the first 3 innings. In the 4th (I believe) while having his A stuff he proceeds to load the bases with 0 out. If it weren't for a great heady play by Phillips it could have been an awful inning.

The thing that helped Johnny was he was facing the A's. But if he has a brain cramp and loads the bases against a good offensive team it could be dangerous. So year Cueto had a nice outing, but hidden amongst it was another brain cramp that could have cost the Reds the game.

Cedric
06-24-2010, 05:50 PM
I will give you an example yesterday why I am not high on Cueto. He is on his stuff obviously, getting the first 7 out, having an easy time through the first 3 innings. In the 4th (I believe) while having his A stuff he proceeds to load the bases with 0 out. If it weren't for a great heady play by Phillips it could have been an awful inning.

The thing that helped Johnny was he was facing the A's. But if he has a brain cramp and loads the bases against a good offensive team it could be dangerous. So year Cueto had a nice outing, but hidden amongst it was another brain cramp that could have cost the Reds the game.

What pitcher doesn't get into a jam at least once or twice a game? Usually the problems happen after Cueto gives up the first run.

Will M
06-24-2010, 09:55 PM
Cueto has given up 4 or more runs 5 times this season in 15 starts. Carpenter has given up 4 or more runs 4 times. So even the perceived ace of the NL Central has bad games. I feel alot of the problems that the board has with Cueto is perception. First off, Cueto is the #3 starter on this team. It doesn't mean diddly that he has a TOR arm. He is your #3. So the #3 pitcher on the team is 7-2 with a sub 4.00 ERA. Guess how many teams in baseball have a #3 with a winning record, averages 6 inning per game and a sub 4.00 ERA?

Tampa Bay - Price 10 - 3 / 2.45 ERA
CHC WS - Danks 7 - 5 / 3.23 ERA
Oakland - Gonzalez 6 - 5 / 3.89 ERA
Florida - Sanchez 7 - 4 / 3.30 ERA
LA Dodgers - Kuroda 6 - 5 / 3.06 ERA
San Diego - Latos 8 - 4 / 2.93 ERA
San Fran - Zito 7 - 4 / 3.45 ERA
Cincy - Cueto 7 - 2 / 3.98 ERA

Every other pitcher on that list makes his starts in a pitcher friendly or Neutral park at home. 3 pitchers in the NL West with 3 of the 4 team have trouble hitting. So arguably Price is the only player on that list as a true #3 starter having a better season that Cueto and he was a much hyped #1 Draft pick. Out of 30 teams that's 8 starters or just 27% of teams.

More proof that he is trending in the right directions.

In 2008 he averaged 5.2 innings a start with a 9-14 record and a 4.81 ERA. He gave up 1 HR every 6 innings. His BAA was .254. His BB rate was 3.52. His WHIP 1.41. His ERA+ was 92.

In 2009 he averaged 5.2 innings a start with an 11-11 record and a 4.41 ERA. He gave up 1 HR every 7.1 innings. His BAA was .251. His BB rate was 3.2. His WHIP was 1.36. His ERA+ was 97. All positive trends except for innings pitch, which stayed neutral.

This season he has averages 6 innings a start with a 7-2 record and a 3.97 ERA. He is giving up 1 HR every 11.1 innings pitched. A huge positive jump and his Achilles Heal in seasons past. His BAA is .247. His BB rate is 2.7. His WHIP is 1.28. His ERA+ is 106. Every statistical category is a positive trend again.

He has been frustrating to watch at time sure, but this was a kid at 21, had never pitched more than 80 innings at any level in one season his career. He had under 350 innings in the minors in 2 and a half seasons. He has 436 in the same time frame in the Majors. So in 1 and a half seasons since his rookie year...

He has went 18 - 13. Lowered his ERA by 0.84 runs. His HR Rate has improved by 5.1 innings per. Or one less every other start. BAA is .007 lower and trending under .250 for the year. His BB rate is .82 lower per start. So that's 2 less runs a game every other game right there from 1 less BB and one less HR which we all seen happen how many times? His WHIP is .13 lower. Most importantly his ERA+ is 14 points higher. Trending positively in all categories.

Our #1 starter Harang ERA+ is only 81 (Only 4 seasons of 95 ERA+ in 9 seasons) Cueto has 2 in 3.

Our #2 starter Arroyo ERA+ is only 97.

Our combined #4 Starters (LeCure and Bailey) are only 94 and 77.

Our #5 starter Leake is ERA+ of 144

So only Leake is out performing him in the rotation.

Volquez for reference was at ERA+ of 99 when he went down an 138 in his All Star year.

Carmona has had 2 seasons out of 4 below 80 ERA+ and 1 and a half above 120.

Lee has been over 125 ERA+ 5 straight years.

Haren has been over 135 for 3 straight years until dropping to 97 this year.

You don't trade guys of Cueto's talent for equal or less talent. It's a treadmill move. He is the teams second best starter. With Leake being limited that makes him the teams ACE. You can't trade the ace. In 2 years following Cueto's progression, He should be posting a line of around 18 - 4 / 2.85 ERA / 220 Innings / BAA .220 / 50 BB / 210 K's...

In his 5th year. With one year of control left. His value would be off the charts, Santana tradible for anyone you'd want. Are you really ready to give him up for Carmona now? It's a treadmill move at the very ultimate best.

Not good business not good GM'ing if you would.

Give up a Maloney, a LeCure and a Francisco. Not a Cueto for that dredge.

Cueto is untouchable IMHO. He is 24 years old & has been an average pitcher in his short career. He could certainly make the step up to a #2 starter.
Plus he is cheap.

As you pointed out Cueto has the ability to limit damage when he doesn't have his best stuff. I don't know if this is a skill or simply talent (ie his off day stuff is still pretty decent).

Looking at 2011 the team could have:
Arroyo (option picked up or contract reworked)
Volquez (fingers crossed)
Leake
Cueto
Chapman
The enigma known as Homer Bailey
Wood

Thats a pretty nice group of starters

fearofpopvol1
06-28-2010, 07:02 PM
According to EPSN Insider, Volquez's next start in AAA should be his last before being activated.

OnBaseMachine
06-30-2010, 01:36 PM
From John Fay:


The Reds haven’t decided whether Edinson Volquez will make one or two more starts on his rehab.

Volquez went six innings and allowed two runs on two hits last night for Louisville in fourth overall rehab start and second for Louisville. He walked two and struck out seven. He threw 90 pitches, 55 strikes.

“It’s not definitely on one more,” Baker said. “We want him over-ready rather than under-ready.”


http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/06/30/no-decision-on-volquez/

OnBaseMachine
07-01-2010, 02:21 PM
From Mark Sheldon:


*Edinson Volquez is scheduled to make his next rehab start for Triple-A Louisville on Monday at Indianapolis. But that's not set in cement, just yet.

"We haven't decided yet. We're going to talk about that today," manager Dusty Baker said.


http://marksheldon.mlblogs.com/archives/2010/07/notes_on_volquez_hanigan_gomes.html