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View Full Version : Edwin Encarnacion Sent to AAA Las Vegas



mdccclxix
06-21-2010, 12:17 AM
Announced today was the decision to send EE to AAA to work on his overall game. Seems he's thought of very similarly by Jays fans as he was by us Reds fans - not so hot. He is just a cut below the grade and shows signs of promise that never last.

It is said he handled the demotion with class, which was different than the reports after he was traded from Cincinnati that he celebrated about it.

Good luck EE!

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100620&content_id=11413022&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

mdccclxix
06-21-2010, 12:36 AM
So far this year he's hitting:

.200/ .298/ .467/ .765

If I had to guess, he'll rebound and make it back up in TOR, or perhaps get shipped again to a team like the AAAA Pirates where he might catch on.

TheNext44
06-21-2010, 01:01 AM
Really not surprising. Many on this board predicted this.

I do hope he gets his act together and becomes a complete ball player. No matter how frustrating he was to watch, he always seemed like a good kid.

The Operator
06-21-2010, 01:28 AM
I really thought he was going to turn into a pretty good player. Not saying he wasn't, because he had some great moments here, but overall, he was frustrating. I was a big fan of his for a long time though.

Sometimes the tools just don't translate into production.

Sea Ray
06-21-2010, 02:43 AM
Did he have options left?

Strike another one in favor of the Reds in this deal

TRF
06-21-2010, 08:47 AM
Considering the injury he had to his wrists, I'm not surprised. He went on a tear after coming off the DL, but I'm thinking the wrist his still weak. I doubt he's with Toronto after this year. Pittsburgh would be a good fit. Houston, LAA, KC, even San Diego could use an upgrade at 3B offensively. Those same teams need a bat in LF too.

jojo
06-21-2010, 09:05 AM
So far this year he's hitting:

.200/ .298/ .467/ .765

If I had to guess, he'll rebound and make it back up in TOR, or perhaps get shipped again to a team like the AAAA Pirates where he might catch on.

The OBP is built almost entirely upon walks and the SLG is built almost entirely on 3 games in Arizona. He's been lifeless offensively for most of the season.

lollipopcurve
06-21-2010, 09:35 AM
Pittsburgh would be a good fit.

Not with Pedro Alvarez in Pittsburgh.

EdE is probably headed the way of a minor league contract w/ invite to ST somewhere in 2011.

TRF
06-21-2010, 09:41 AM
Not with Pedro Alvarez in Pittsburgh.

EdE is probably headed the way of a minor league contract w/ invite to ST somewhere in 2011.
Maybe not 3B, but LF?

RANDY IN INDY
06-21-2010, 09:48 AM
The end is near.

lollipopcurve
06-21-2010, 09:54 AM
Maybe not 3B, but LF?

They've got Milledge, McCutchen and Tabata in the OF now, 3 young guys with potential. (This is assuming Garret Jones moves to !B, which appears to have happened.) EdE has never played OF. No fit.

kaldaniels
06-21-2010, 10:12 AM
As another piece in this trade bites the dust, I gotta say the initial Rolen trade thread gets more and more entertaining to read.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=77751

Scrap Irony
06-21-2010, 10:14 AM
Who was it that insisted EdE was an 800 OPS bat this year (or very nearly so)?

TRF
06-21-2010, 10:38 AM
Who was it that insisted EdE was an 800 OPS bat this year (or very nearly so)?

Me. I stand by that, but wrist injuries play havoc with your swing. His career says he's capable, and he's entering his prime production years.


They've got Milledge, McCutchen and Tabata in the OF now, 3 young guys with potential. (This is assuming Garret Jones moves to !B, which appears to have happened.) EdE has never played OF. No fit.

As the Pirates youthful potential in LF... meh. The potential of Milledge sailed long ago. He never could hit. This year: .251 .328 .328 .656. EE's arm will play fine in LF, and his bat certainly will. I'd rather have EE than Milledge in LF.

westofyou
06-21-2010, 10:40 AM
EE hasn't been moved to LF yet... his next stop is 1st base or DH, his footwork destroys the effectiveness of his arm, his bat is pure RH Willie Greene at this point, his worth has equal value as well.

TRF
06-21-2010, 10:49 AM
He's got a .200 BA, and a .298 OBP. So the hits aren't falling, but his BB rate is more than fine. His BABIP is .172. Small sample to be sure, but it sounds like a little bad luck is involved. He's made a chunk of money, and maybe he is Willie Greene, but I think he's back in a month.

Razor Shines
06-21-2010, 10:49 AM
As another piece in this trade bites the dust, I gotta say the initial Rolen trade thread gets more and more entertaining to read.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=77751

Well the Reds did kind of luck out with Rolen. There was no way to know that Rolen would be willing to sell his soul to Satan for "one more All Star season."

westofyou
06-21-2010, 11:16 AM
He's got a .200 BA, and a .298 OBP. So the hits aren't falling, but his BB rate is more than fine. His BABIP is .172. Small sample to be sure, but it sounds like a little bad luck is involved. He's made a chunk of money, and maybe he is Willie Greene, but I think he's back in a month.

I always use to think Willie would be back in a month, Chris Brown before that... sometimes they have already arrived and left when you are waiting for them to get there.

Most of the time they've been letting you know that they're going, and we just choose to think otherwise.

Welcome to that moment.

Scrap Irony
06-21-2010, 11:28 AM
Amazing how similar the careers are, considering how odd that trajectory is and that they were about seven years apart in the same city. Add in Nick Esasky's Cincinnati career (ignoring his Boston break-out and vertigo) and the Reds could "boast" of three players over the course of 20 years who all showed remarkable promise early in young careers, all playing the same hot corner position with equal inability, then they each just... stayed there.

Remarkable, I tell you.

TRF
06-21-2010, 11:31 AM
I always use to think Willie would be back in a month, Chris Brown before that... sometimes they have already arrived and left when you are waiting for them to get there.

Most of the time they've been letting you know that they're going, and we just choose to think otherwise.

Welcome to that moment.

Well, I certainly admit i have my blind spots. I think once the wrist is fully healed/strengthened that he comes back strong.

pedro
06-21-2010, 11:43 AM
I think he's toast.

Brutus
06-21-2010, 11:48 AM
I think he's toast.

Times two.

TheNext44
06-21-2010, 11:58 AM
Well the Reds did kind of luck out with Rolen. There was no way to know that Rolen would be willing to sell his soul to Satan for "one more All Star season."

That Rolen has played so well is not that surprising. That he's played so often is the shocker. Even his staunchest supporters assumed he'd be good for 100, maybe 110 games tops.

pedro
06-21-2010, 12:12 PM
That Rolen has played so well is not that surprising. That he's played so often is the shocker. Even his staunchest supporters assumed he'd be good for 100, maybe 110 games tops.

Probably more like 130-140 I never thought he'd miss 50-60 games.

Cedric
06-21-2010, 12:22 PM
Willie Greene deja vu.

kaldaniels
06-21-2010, 12:32 PM
That Rolen has played so well is not that surprising. That he's played so often is the shocker. Even his staunchest supporters assumed he'd be good for 100, maybe 110 games tops.

110 was never my high end for Rolen.

Brutus
06-21-2010, 01:24 PM
110 was never my high end for Rolen.

Mine either. I was expecting one trip to the DL and then a good 10-15 additional games of rest (130-135 total GP).

fearofpopvol1
06-21-2010, 01:42 PM
The biggest problem EdE faces is there there aren't too many teams that can afford to experiment with him further defensively and try different positions at the MLB level. Especially when he isn't hitting.

hebroncougar
06-21-2010, 01:58 PM
That Rolen has played so well is not that surprising. That he's played so often is the shocker. Even his staunchest supporters assumed he'd be good for 100, maybe 110 games tops.

No, it's more than surprising, his level of play is the downright shocker. He hasn't slugged this high, nor played near this well in 6 years, and he's 35 years old. He's played way, way off of his chart this year. Heck, he hadn't his this many home runs in season since 2006, and it's only June. I hope he keeps it up, the Reds need it.

TheNext44
06-21-2010, 02:33 PM
Mine either. I was expecting one trip to the DL and then a good 10-15 additional games of rest (130-135 total GP).

Very prophetic. :)

Good chance that's where he ends up. He's on pace for 148 games now, and I can only see him getting more days off as the summer gets hotter. And there's still a good chance he lands on the DL at some point this year, or at least aggravates something so he needs a few days off in a row.

nate
06-21-2010, 03:50 PM
And he's been (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/06/blue-jays-designate-encarnacion-for-assignment.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MlbTradeRumors+%28MLB+Trade+R umors%29&utm_content=Google+Reader) DFA:


The Blue Jays designated Edwin Encarnacion for assignment, according to the team. The Blue Jays demoted Encarnacion, who they picked up in last summer's Scott Rolen trade, after yesterday's loss to the Giants.

TRF
06-21-2010, 03:56 PM
wow. that's kind of surprising to me. I guess woy is right.

RichRed
06-21-2010, 04:22 PM
One of the best MLB moves of the past year.


5. The Reds' acquisition of Scott Rolen for Edwin Encarnacion and two others

When the Reds acquired Rolen at last year's trade deadline, no one quite understood why Cincinnati wanted a 34-year-old with a history of recent injuries and a big contract. But Rolen had a year to go on his deal, was thrilled to go to Cincinnati (he's from Indiana) and it shows. "This is the best I've seen him in years,'' one scout said. He's helped the Reds become the biggest threat to St. Louis' supremacy in the NL Central by batting .301 with 14 home runs and 45 RBIs.


Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/jon_heyman/06/20/best.decisions/index.html#ixzz0rWN9hzlk

reds44
06-21-2010, 04:54 PM
I'm sure this is going to be a shocker to everybody, but I still think if you gave Edwin the right coaching he could become a useful player. He's flashed too much potential too many times for me to say he's done.

I know I'm one of the few Edwin supporters left, but I hope he catches on in the right situation somewhere. I'd rather have him than Cairo or Nix (and probably even Janish), but I know we won't be the team that scoops him up.

Gallen5862
06-21-2010, 04:59 PM
If EE was sent to AAA before he was DFA'ed could the Reds get him off waivers possibly and send him to AAA? Do you think walt would consider this?

reds44
06-21-2010, 05:00 PM
If EE was sent to AAA before he was DFA'ed could the Reds get him of waivers possibly and send him to AAA? Do you think walt would consider this?
I'm not 100% sure, but I'm pretty sure he had options left.

And no, I don't think Walt would. I would, he won't.

westofyou
06-21-2010, 05:03 PM
EE is destined for Baltimore is my guess, or he's a Milo and will end up playing in AAA until September

Degenerate39
06-21-2010, 05:04 PM
I don't know why anyone would want to pick him up

reds44
06-21-2010, 05:06 PM
I don't know why anyone would want to pick him up
My guess would be because he's shown the ability to hit major league pitching.

RichRed
06-21-2010, 05:12 PM
EE is destined for Baltimore is my guess, or he's a Milo and will end up playing in AAA until September

Reunited with Corey Patterson! (And it feels so good.)

traderumor
06-21-2010, 05:36 PM
Give the Jays credit for one thing: they looked at the whole body of work and apparently ignored his recent two homer game.

Brutus
06-21-2010, 05:38 PM
My guess would be because he's shown the ability to hit major league pitching.

For his career he's just a tick above average offensively but is substandard defensively. There are not going to be many suitors.

TRF
06-21-2010, 05:45 PM
The Blue Jays must be looking to add someone to their 40. If EE clears waivers i doubt he's given his release unless there are clubhouse issues.

reds44
06-21-2010, 05:54 PM
For his career he's just a tick above average offensively but is substandard defensively. There are not going to be many suitors.
There are a lot of players in the majors right now worse than EE.

Brutus
06-21-2010, 06:05 PM
There are a lot of players in the majors right now worse than EE.

And I'm sure if money was no object, players making his salary would be more often cast away as well.

I don't find the statement "there are a lot of players in the majors right now worse than EE" a very flattering testament on his behalf. That there are worse players does not mean there will be a line forming to speak with his agent if he's given his release.

westofyou
06-21-2010, 06:13 PM
There are a lot of players in the majors right now worse than EE.

This is from the press release, the bolded items say a lot about some of the other players EE is on par with now.



With Encarnacion out of the picture for now, the Blue Jays can either play Jose Bautista at third base, opening an outfield spot for Dwayne Wise or Adam Lind, or give Hoffpauir a shot at manning third regularly. Hoffpauir -- claimed off waivers by Toronto in November -- played third most of this season with Las Vegas.

reds44
06-21-2010, 06:52 PM
This is from the press release, the bolded items say a lot about some of the other players EE is on par with now.
Or about the Blue Jays organization.

BCubb2003
06-21-2010, 07:43 PM
I wonder if you could create an All-Potential team of castoffs like Edwin and then whip them into shape.

TheNext44
06-21-2010, 07:58 PM
I wonder if you could create an All-Potential team of castoffs like Edwin and then whip them into shape.

See: Cincinnati Reds - Jim Bowden Era

11larkin11
06-21-2010, 08:30 PM
Wait, he's a former Red?

How do you like the capital, Mr. Encarnacion?

jojo
06-21-2010, 09:31 PM
There are a lot of players in the majors right now worse than EE.

But EE is getting paid $5M to live up to that praise.

Someone will pick him up when he's cheaper. I could see him playing third for Houstan next year.

Blitz Dorsey
06-21-2010, 11:22 PM
Sounds about right.

fearofpopvol1
06-22-2010, 02:34 AM
But EE is getting paid $5M to live up to that praise.

Someone will pick him up when he's cheaper. I could see him playing third for Houstan next year.

Yep, I think the money is what makes EdE very undesirable right now.

I'm sure he'll find a job next year somewhere, doing something. But the suitor pool has to be small because there aren't that many teams who can afford to experiment with EdE's defense right now, at any position.

Ron Madden
06-22-2010, 04:34 AM
See: Cincinnati Reds - Jim Bowden Era


Jim Bowden wasn't the GM who signed Edwin to this contract.

I've always thought Edwin was a very hard worker with plenty of talent.

He has yet to live up to my expectations but I hope someday he will. I wish him the best of luck.

buckeyenut
06-22-2010, 07:32 AM
I would pick up EE in a heartbeat if he is willing to go to AAA and work on a new position and Toronto is picking up his tab. The money is the issue with him as much as anything. I would have no issue sending him to AAA to work on 1B/LF. We could use a guy with a solid bat that could back up 1B/3B/LF in a pinch.

UKFlounder
06-22-2010, 07:41 AM
Yes, we could use a solid bat off the bench, but does EE qualify as a "solid bat?" In 2008, maybe he did, but last year and so far this year, he doesn't, IMO.

It's kind of a funny situation and combination - he's young enough that he still may have "potential" yet his most productive days may already be behind him, at least based on the past season plus of his play. I guess that's the question some team will have to answer - is his best baseball ahead of him, or did it already happen in 2006-2008?

I would pick up EE in a heartbeat if he is willing to go to AAA and work on a new position and Toronto is picking up his tab. The money is the issue with him as much as anything. I would have no issue sending him to AAA to work on 1B/LF. We could use a guy with a solid bat that could back up 1B/3B/LF in a pinch.

TRF
06-22-2010, 09:05 AM
Money isn't an issue. after 10 days Toronto is eating that salary. Bautista was on a ridiculous HR tear, but there is a pretty good reason Lind is a DH. Still that's a potent lineup in Toronto.

But if EE isn't claimed off waivers or traded in the next 10 days, and Toronto does in fact release him, he'll be snapped up quick. Someone will think his bat will play for them and think they can fix him defensively.

Sea Ray
06-22-2010, 09:39 AM
If he was out of options then they had to DFA him

Sea Ray
06-22-2010, 09:42 AM
Encarnacion is now off the 40-man roster and Toronto has 10 days to trade, waive, or release him, but my guess is that the Blue Jays either already have a deal in place or are very confident about being able to move him by the end of the week. If not, there really wasn't much reason to drop him from the 40-man roster given that he has a minor-league option remaining and can safely be stashed at Triple-A.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/blue-jays-designate-edwin-encarnacion-for-assignment.php

Blitz Dorsey
06-22-2010, 10:43 AM
I remember getting into an argument with a good buddy before the 2009 about EE. I thought he was atrocious. Not a good hitter and was IMO the worst defensive starting third baseman in MLB. My friend was such a big EE fan it nearly ended our friendship. (OK, not really, but he thought I was crazy to be so against EE. I just couldn't stand the guy. Let's add it up: Not a good hitter, terrible defensively and very lazy at times. Yep, sounds like a winner!)

REDREAD
06-22-2010, 11:05 AM
I see EdE going to an AL club that is desperate for offense and short on talent.

Since teams are now carrying 11-12 pitchers on their staff, it's difficult to fit a guy that can't field on the roster unless he really hits well.

I don't see EdE hitting well enough to stick at 1b or LF, unless it's a bad club (which he will probably end up at). If he hasn't learned 3b by now, I have a hard time believing he ever will.

I wish him the best.

mdccclxix
06-22-2010, 11:44 AM
It's pretty clear his detractors in Cincinnati were seeing the real EE. His departure in Toronto is very similar to Cincinnati. Part of me thinks when he's healthy next year, he'll still be able to hit .280 with 30 bombs, but you just never know if his attitude and defense is really going to prevent that.

http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/mlb/bluejays/article/826603--griffin-time-has-run-out-for-jays-encarnacion


But there were other clues of his discontent — like the fact the third baseman did not talk to the media on the way out the door to Sin City, hinting he wasn’t quite as good with the move as the GM may have thought. On Monday, it seems the real player reaction may have oozed out.

While Anthopoulos insisted Monday he would never be coerced by an agent into acceding to a trade demand, he did not say that if an agent might use the “play us or trade us” that he would not defiantly respond, “Okay then we’ll designate you for assignment and see what happens.”

westofyou
06-22-2010, 11:53 AM
The only surprise in this whole mess is it took the Jays this long to make the move. Encarnacion fit into the Jays’ future like Canadian Tire fits into Amish country. The exiled third baseman has never been a player the Jays wanted. If his replacement, Jarrett Hoffpauir, can play a little bit of hard-nosed baseball and if Travis Snider can come back healthy in July and if the Jays are playing well and competing against an easier schedule coming out of the all-star break the move will pay off.

Face it. The Jays didn’t want Encarnacion even back when they shipped Scott Rolen to the Reds as a favour — but the Reds would not have included pitchers Josh Roenicke and Zach Stewart if the Jays had not accepted Encarnacion’s ’09 salary, plus the $4.75 million commitment for 2010.

The Jays didn’t want Encarnacion while he was on the DL in April with a sore right shoulder. The DL lingered into May. The Jays did not know what to do with the big-ticket albatross even then. Jose Bautista was playing a solid third base while the 22-year-old Snider was playing hopscotch with stardom in right field and is considered a big part of the Jays’ future. But then Snider got hurt.

Sea Ray
06-22-2010, 12:03 PM
Just as a lot of us suspected. EE had negative value. He was not wanted by the Reds or the Jays. He'll have to pick up his game if he expects to continue his major league career. There are better players than him (Jermaine Dye) sitting at home now

RedsManRick
06-22-2010, 12:12 PM
He really needs to move off 3B. I could see him having an Aubrey Huff like career, but I think he's going to need that defensive flexibility to sustain his value.

mdccclxix
06-22-2010, 12:14 PM
It seems like people just don't like his expressionless face, they take it for meaning lazy and pouty. I never did.

bucksfan2
06-22-2010, 01:30 PM
It seems like people just don't like his expressionless face, they take it for meaning lazy and pouty. I never did.

Actually I didn't like his production and his defense. I could really care less if he looked like he was pouting or like he was giving 110%. He flat out didn't produce over the past two years.

Baseball is a game based upon performance. You can have all the potential you want, but if you don't develop that potential you will end up like Edwin, DFA'd and looking for a job. Its no knock on Edwin, there have been many shining stars to see their shine all but dimmed once they got to the big leagues. In his short career Edwin carved out a nice little sum of money. He very well may become a journeyman type player who over the next handful of years becomes a non-roster invitee to spring. Not a bad gig if you ask me.

Hoosier Red
06-22-2010, 01:40 PM
He really needs to move off 3B. I could see him having an Aubrey Huff like career, but I think he's going to need that defensive flexibility to sustain his value.

I agree with this. A lot of people have mentioned playing him as a starter in LF or RF, but if you do that his bat begins to lose a lot of value. But as a power hitting RH bat that can play any of the four corner positions? I definately think he can make his bat hold up there.

edabbs44
06-22-2010, 01:44 PM
He really needs to move off 3B. I could see him having an Aubrey Huff like career, but I think he's going to need that defensive flexibility to sustain his value.

I think that's pretty optomistic.

westofyou
06-22-2010, 01:48 PM
It seems like people just don't like his expressionless face, they take it for meaning lazy and pouty. I never did.

I took his footwork as lazy and undisciplined, his production spotty and streaky, overall I didn't think he could be counted on to pop, his body language on the field was often equal to the production that delivered, he himself looks at times defeated.

UKFlounder
06-22-2010, 02:13 PM
With all the comparisons being mentioned, could he be another Fernando Tatis, who had a couple promising year, fell off the face of the earth for a while, then made a comeback at a different position and became a useful player?

RedsManRick
06-22-2010, 02:20 PM
I think that's pretty optomistic.

Agreed. I'm not suggesting I think it will happen, just that it could. I don't think he sticks in the majors as just a 3B.

IslandRed
06-22-2010, 03:05 PM
I don't think he sticks in the majors as just a 3B.

Probably not. Then again, Jorge Cantu can't play third base worth a rip either, but he has a job. Sometimes a guy catches a break. But I think you're right, if he doesn't add four-corners or at least three-corners versatility as a potential bench player to his resume, he won't be around much longer.

RedsManRick
06-22-2010, 03:16 PM
Probably not. Then again, Jorge Cantu can't play third base worth a rip either, but he has a job. Sometimes a guy catches a break. But I think you're right, if he doesn't add four-corners or at least three-corners versatility as a potential bench player to his resume, he won't be around much longer.

Cantu is a very good comp. Average bat, with solid power upside, but poor defense.

EE: .257/.339/.449
Cantu: .277/.323/.455

We'll see how long Cantu lasts. There are only so many 3B jobs and so many teams who will accept poor defense at 3B.

Sea Ray
06-22-2010, 03:55 PM
Cantu is a very good comp. Average bat, with solid power upside, but poor defense.

EE: .257/.339/.449
Cantu: .277/.323/.455

We'll see how long Cantu lasts. There are only so many 3B jobs and so many teams who will accept poor defense at 3B.

The big difference to me is RBI. Cantu is a guy who drives in runs. He's had two yrs with RBI totals over 100, one with 95 and he's got a good shot at 100 this year. Edwin's best year was 76 and that was many yrs ago.

Guys like EE and Cantu are middle of the lineup guys; folks you want to produce runs. They aren't guys who'll be fielding gems (bottom of the order) or OBP/speed guys (top of the order). I need to see RBI from a guy like EE.

reds44
06-22-2010, 04:00 PM
The big difference to me is RBI. Cantu is a guy who drives in runs. He's had two yrs with RBI totals over 100, one with 95 and he's got a good shot at 100 this year. Edwin's best year was 76 and that was many yrs ago.

Guys like EE and Cantu are middle of the lineup guys; folks you want to produce runs. They aren't guys who'll be fielding gems (bottom of the order) or OBP/speed guys (top of the order). I need to see RBI from a guy like EE.
Cantu drives in runs because he bats 4th for the Marlins. Let EE bat cleanup all season and see where his RBI totals end up.

Sea Ray
06-22-2010, 04:04 PM
Cantu drives in runs because he bats 4th for the Marlins. Let EE bat cleanup all season and see where his RBI totals end up.

If he can knock in 100 batting cleanup for anyone there's 32 chances for him out there. Surely someone will call asking him to bat cleanup...:confused:

TRF
06-22-2010, 04:08 PM
If he can knock in 100 batting cleanup for anyone there's 32 chances for him out there. Surely someone will call asking him to bat cleanup...:confused:

nuggets get found all the time. Cantu signed for cheap with Florida in 2008, $500K. And he drove in 95. If EE is given his outright release, someone will pick him up in the hopes that he turns into an RBI machine.

westofyou
06-22-2010, 04:12 PM
nuggets get found all the time. Cantu signed for cheap with Florida in 2008, $500K. And he drove in 95. If EE is given his outright release, someone will pick him up in the hopes that he turns into an RBI machine.
I'm also sure once he gets signed a thread on that teams board will arrive declaring the GM an idiot for chasing a 2 times (in 10 months) jettisoned "RBI" man like EE.

TRF
06-22-2010, 04:13 PM
With just as many posts saying it's a low risk high reward move.

RedsManRick
06-22-2010, 04:16 PM
The big difference to me is RBI. Cantu is a guy who drives in runs. He's had two yrs with RBI totals over 100, one with 95 and he's got a good shot at 100 this year. Edwin's best year was 76 and that was many yrs ago.

Guys like EE and Cantu are middle of the lineup guys; folks you want to produce runs. They aren't guys who'll be fielding gems (bottom of the order) or OBP/speed guys (top of the order). I need to see RBI from a guy like EE.

Offense is offense and runs are runs, however you contribute to their creation. "RBI guys' are fine and dandy, but "RBI and Runs" guys are better.

Cantu
Men On: .280/.324/.466 (.790)
RISP: .289.336/.466 (.802)

Encarnacion
Men On: .262/.355/.432 (.787)
RISP: .274/.375/.439 (.814)

These guys are very similar "run producers". When you consider that OBP is actually worth more than SLG in terms of contribution to real run production, EE has the edge. In any event, Cantu will probably drive in a few more runs than EE and EE will score a few more runs than Cantu. But RBI are not more valuable than runs scored, regardless of what position you play. They are very simliar.

I'm 99% I know the answer to this but have, regarding RBI, have you looked at their conversion of RBI opportunities or just the counting stats?

reds44
06-22-2010, 04:20 PM
If he can knock in 100 batting cleanup for anyone there's 32 chances for him out there. Surely someone will call asking him to bat cleanup...:confused:
That's not what I said.

Edwin's career line with RISP is .274/.375/.439/.814
Cantu's career line with RISP is .289/.336/.466/.802

Cantu has nearly 2000 career ABs hitting 3rd or 4th, Edwin has 305.
Cantu has over 2,100 ABs hitting with runners on, Edwin has 1,400.

To imply that Cantu just "knows how to drive in runs" is silly.

Sea Ray
06-22-2010, 04:32 PM
That's not what I said.

Edwin's career line with RISP is .274/.375/.439/.814
Cantu's career line with RISP is .289/.336/.466/.802

Cantu has nearly 2000 career ABs hitting 3rd or 4th, Edwin has 305.
Cantu has over 2,100 ABs hitting with runners on, Edwin has 1,400.

To imply that Cantu just "knows how to drive in runs" is silly.

What's silly is to think that FL can sign EE tomorrow, plunk him into Cantu's role and produce like Jorge has.

TRF
06-22-2010, 04:35 PM
What's silly is to think that FL can sign EE tomorrow, plunk him into Cantu's role and produce like Jorge has.

As he is right now? I agree. I don't think he's regained all his strength yet. If he were healthy? If he was the EE from 2006-2008? yep. I can see it.

reds44
06-22-2010, 04:37 PM
What's silly is to think that FL can sign EE tomorrow, plunk him into Cantu's role and produce like Jorge has.
If Edwin is healthy, I don't see why that would be a stretch.

Cantu had a .788 OPS last year and is OPSing .767 this year, he's not doing anything out of his career norms (.778). When you consider the fact EE's career OPS is .788, I don't see why he couldn't do what Cantu is doing in the same situation.

Sea Ray
06-22-2010, 04:49 PM
These guys are very similar "run producers". When you consider that OBP is actually worth more than SLG in terms of contribution to real run production, EE has the edge. In any event, Cantu will probably drive in a few more runs than EE and EE will score a few more runs than Cantu. But RBI are not more valuable than runs scored, regardless of what position you play. They are very simliar.

I'm 99% I know the answer to this but have, regarding RBI, have you looked at their conversion of RBI opportunities or just the counting stats?


If they are similar run producers then why is Cantu worth the $6mill that the Marlins gave him several months ago and no team in baseball wants to pick up EE's $4.75mill? Is it Cantu's defense I'm missing?

Run conversion is counting stats, so yes I did look at run conversion and saw that Cantu hit better with RISP. If you are going to try to use stats to say that EE is as good at run production as Cantu then you ought to be his agent. Even the Reds as they are right now are hard pessed to find run producers that can hang with Cantu

Sea Ray
06-22-2010, 04:51 PM
As he is right now? I agree. I don't think he's regained all his strength yet. If he were healthy? If he was the EE from 2006-2008? yep. I can see it.

What's not healthy on EE?

jojo
06-22-2010, 05:06 PM
Cantu really isn't any great prize. He's a slightly above average major league hitter and a below average defender.

He's had one year as a regular where he's been above average overall and it wasn't like eye popping above average. He's basically been below average every other year.

TRF
06-22-2010, 05:07 PM
If they are similar run producers then why is Cantu worth the $6mill that the Marlins gave him several months ago and no team in baseball wants to pick up EE's $4.75mill? Is it Cantu's defense I'm missing?

Run conversion is counting stats, so yes I did look at run conversion and saw that Cantu hit better with RISP. If you are going to try to use stats to say that EE is as good at run production as Cantu then you ought to be his agent. Even the Reds as they are right now are hard pessed to find run producers that can hang with Cantu

Florida signed him for $500K in 2008. you seem to keep forgetting that.

As for EE's health, he had wrist surgery. I don't believe his strength is fully returned. EE, when healthy was a line drive machine.

Sea Ray
06-22-2010, 05:09 PM
Florida signed him for $500K in 2008. you seem to keep forgetting that.

As for EE's health, he had wrist surgery. I don't believe his strength is fully returned. EE, when healthy was a line drive machine.

That's because I don't care about 2008. I'm judging their value as of today. What does salary of 2008 have to do with it?

Sea Ray
06-22-2010, 05:12 PM
Cantu really isn't any great prize. He's a slightly above average major league hitter and a below average defender.

He's had one year as a regular where he's been above average overall and it wasn't like eye popping above average. He's basically been below average every other year.

He's a starting cleanup hitter on his way to a 100 RBI year. You may have such high standards that that doesn't impress you much but I think that's pretty valuable. It sure beats being DFA

TRF
06-22-2010, 05:14 PM
That's because I don't care about 2008. I'm judging their value as of today. What does salary of 2008 have to do with it?

because he played his way into that salary.

Why would any team assume 4.75 mil if they don't have to? the risk of EE at the league minimum is the same as Cantu at $500K 2 years ago. That's nothing for any MLB team. Low risk high reward, same as Cantu.

TRF
06-22-2010, 05:17 PM
He's a starting cleanup hitter on his way to a 100 RBI year. You may have such high standards that that doesn't impress you much but I think that's pretty valuable. It sure beats being DFA

You mean like being released by the Reds in 2007? or traded to the Reds for two guys not pitching in MLB?

If you just don't look at RBI's their stats are very similar. similar history too with Cantu seeing new life after his injury in TB.

Sea Ray
06-22-2010, 05:21 PM
because he played his way into that salary.

Why would any team assume 4.75 mil if they don't have to? the risk of EE at the league minimum is the same as Cantu at $500K 2 years ago. That's nothing for any MLB team. Low risk high reward, same as Cantu.

Any team would assume $4.75mill if the player was worth it. The Marlins didn't have to give Cantu a dime and they gave him $6mill.

Did you forget that Joey Votto made $400,000 in 2008?

To Jorge's credit he picked up his game. If EE does the same he'll be worthy of a similar raise, but as of right now he's played himself into a position where very few if any major league teams even want him. And staring at the stats won't change that

Sea Ray
06-22-2010, 05:22 PM
You mean like being released by the Reds in 2007? or traded to the Reds for two guys not pitching in MLB?

If you just don't look at RBI's their stats are very similar. similar history too with Cantu seeing new life after his injury in TB.

Do you think he'll become a 100 RBI cleanup hitter after he recovers from this wrist injury he had over a year ago?

RedsManRick
06-22-2010, 06:14 PM
If they are similar run producers then why is Cantu worth the $6mill that the Marlins gave him several months ago and no team in baseball wants to pick up EE's $4.75mill? Is it Cantu's defense I'm missing?

It only takes 1 fool... One team does not a market valuation make. And EE was only let go a few days ago; how do you know that nobody wants him at $4.75? Also, signing a guy in the offseason is very different than picking him off the wire mid-season after rosters are established and budgets are set.



Run conversion is counting stats, so yes I did look at run conversion and saw that Cantu hit better with RISP. If you are going to try to use stats to say that EE is as good at run production as Cantu then you ought to be his agent. Even the Reds as they are right now are hard pessed to find run producers that can hang with Cantu

No, run conversion is not counting stats. It's rate stats. Counting stats completely ignore opportunity. At its simplest, is a guy who drives in 100 runs in 600 PA a better run producer than a guy who drives in 60 in 300? Specifically for RBI, we can (and should) look at how many guys were actually on base for the guy to drive in. If both guys drive in 15% of the runners on base for them, but one guy gets to hit with guys on base more often, he'll drive in more runs. Why would you givie him credit for his teammates' getting on base?

And you're still completely ignoring the value of getting on base for the guys behind you. No player's offensive game can be judged accurately on only 1 component of offensive production -- they all count for everybody. This is particularly true if you want to talk about who's worth more money.

I don't know whether or not Cantu or EE converts more of their RBI opportunities. I would guess Cantu, slightly, due to his marginally higher slugging percentage and batting average. But you have to look at the opportunities to make the sort of assertion you'r making.

jojo
06-22-2010, 06:22 PM
He's a starting cleanup hitter on his way to a 100 RBI year. You may have such high standards that that doesn't impress you much but I think that's pretty valuable. It sure beats being DFA

I don't think major league average is a very high standard.

What it demonstrates is the fallability of using 100 rbis as a benchmark.

I don't think many assume a roughly average bat is capable of approaching 100 rbis, but put one in the 4th spot of Florida's lineup and basically a vanilla bat can do just that. The 100 rbi benchmark isn't that telling.

nate
06-22-2010, 06:23 PM
Do you think he'll become a 100 RBI cleanup hitter after he recovers from this wrist injury he had over a year ago?

In his career, Cantu has had 1485 PAs with men on and converted them to runs 351 times.

EE has 1051 PA with men on and converted them 220.

The conversion percentages are:

Cantu: 24%
EE: 21%

If you run this same exercise with RISP, you get:

Cantu: 35%
EE: 33%

So maybe EE would be a "97 RBI cleanup hitter."

nate
06-22-2010, 06:27 PM
Last year, Cantu had OBP of .361, .340 and .413 hitting in front of him.

In EE's best year of OBI, he had .352, .347 and .341 hitting in front of him.

Sea Ray
06-22-2010, 06:29 PM
It only takes 1 fool... One team does not a market valuation make. And EE was only let go a few days ago; how do you know that nobody wants him at $4.75? Also, signing a guy in the offseason is very different than picking him off the wire mid-season after rosters are established and budgets are set.



No, run conversion is not counting stats. It's rate stats. Counting stats completely ignore opportunity. At its simplest, is a guy who drives in 100 runs in 600 PA a better run producer than a guy who drives in 60 in 300? Specifically for RBI, we can (and should) look at how many guys were actually on base for the guy to drive in. If both guys drive in 15% of the runners on base for them, but one guy gets to hit with guys on base more often, he'll drive in more runs. Why would you givie him credit for his teammates' getting on base?

And you're still completely ignoring the value of getting on base for the guys behind you. No player's offensive game can be judged accurately on only 1 component of offensive production -- they all count for everybody. This is particularly true if you want to talk about who's worth more money.

I don't know whether or not Cantu or EE converts more of their RBI opportunities. I would guess Cantu, slightly, due to his marginally higher slugging percentage and batting average. But you have to look at the opportunities to make the sort of assertion you'r making.

Do you think the Marlins made a foolish move? I don't. I think he's worth every bit of $6mill. Were you referring to the Marlins with your "fool" comment or did that word not refer to the player in question?

What I know is that two teams (Reds and Blue Jays) have given up on him in less than a year. I am making the assumption that if another team thought he was worth the money the Jays would have traded him already. I assume someone will pick him up on a flier on the cheap.

As to who converts more opprtunities, that's miniscule stuff. I am confident in saying that as of right now Cantu is the far superior player. Unless you disagree with that statement, what's the point of getting into miniscule stats?

If you want to predict the future then fine, we all become Miss Cleo at that point and past stats are not necessary. Any one could become Cantu

Sure EE might surprise me and become Jorge Cantu but I'm guessing not.

Sea Ray
06-22-2010, 06:33 PM
Last year, Cantu had OBP of .361, .340 and .413 hitting in front of him.

In EE's best year of OBI, he had .352, .347 and .341 hitting in front of him.

Anyone can look up those stats Nate. What's your conclusion?

reds44
06-22-2010, 06:48 PM
I'm not sure what the argument is here. Nobody is saying Edwin is a great player or anything.

Stats show that him and Cantu are similar players, and the reason Cantu has had some good RBI seasons is because of opprotunities Edwin never has had.

Now if you're going to ignore the facts, then I guess there is an argument.

RedsManRick
06-22-2010, 07:12 PM
Do you think the Marlins made a foolish move? I don't. I think he's worth every bit of $6mill. Were you referring to the Marlins with your "fool" comment or did that word not refer to the player in question?

I think Cantu was worth more than the $3.5M the Marlins paid him last year and is not quite on pace to justify the $6M he's getting this year. He's not ridiculously overpaid, but he's no bargain either. I think that a healthy EE is worth what he's getting paid too.

Regarding my use of the word "fool", I was speaking rhetorically to make a point about your failure in logic. That one team is willing to pay a player a certain amount does not prove the player is necessarily worth that much. For example, the Astros are paying Brandon Lyon $5M a year for 2010-2012. This does not necessarily mean that mediocre middle relievers are worth $5M.



What I know is that two teams (Reds and Blue Jays) have given up on him in less than a year. I am making the assumption that if another team thought he was worth the money the Jays would have traded him already. I assume someone will pick him up on a flier on the cheap.

Cantu got his contract in free agency coming off of a good year after being traded with mediocre prospect for two mediocre prospects. The Reds didn't feel like he was worth offering arbitration and released him. That's one team who traded him away and another who let him walk rather than retain him when giving the option. Sound familiar? The Marlins then signed Cantu in FA for $3.5M and only gave him $6M after a season in which he actually produced $6M in value.

EE has not yet hit free agency and therefore the market has not yet priced him. That two teams the Reds and Jays did not feel he was worth his salary says very little about what the market will bear. It only takes one team to think that he's worth some amount.


As to who converts more opportunities, that's miniscule stuff. I am confident in saying that as of right now Cantu is the far superior player. Unless you disagree with that statement, what's the point of getting into miniscule stats?

I do disagree. I think that Cantu and EE are very similar players. I'm not sure what you mean by miniscule? Do you mean that it doesn't appear on the back of a baseball card? Just because it's not a stat that goes up on the scoreboard doesn't mean it's not the right stat for the question at hand. If you won't base your argument on the logic of the stat being cited and only your confidence, there's no point in having a discussion. Your confidence in your assertion has no bearing on my understanding of who the better player is.

What you've said is this: "Cantu is better at driving in runners on base than EE". You've supported this by citing RBIs. RBIs are a function of two things: 1) The number of runners who you have the chance to drive in
2) The batter getting the hit / sacrifices which drive those runners in.

We're trying to compare Cantu and EE on #2, how good they are at driving runners in. But RBI doesn't measure just that. It also measures how many chances the guy had to drive runners in to begin with. Do you think Cantu should get credit for having more RBI chances than EE?

If you take two guys who are equally adept at driving in runs and one of them gets twice as many chances to do so, that guy will have more RBI. Simple counting stats cannot be used to compared ability outside of the context of opportunity.

I'm glad that you're confident in your assertion, but your argument is flawed. Even if Cantu is better at driving in runners on base, RBI counts are insufficient evidence. The only thing that is "miniscule" here is trying to make a broad assertion about run production based a stat that conflates a player's ability what that of his teammates.


If you want to predict the future then fine, we all become Miss Cleo at that point and past stats are not necessary. Any one could become Cantu

Sure EE might surprise me and become Jorge Cantu but I'm guessing not.

I'm not talking about the future, I'm talking about the past. How many guys did Cantu have on base when he batted? How many did EE? Nate just shared the numbers -- Cantu converted 24% of his RBI opportunities, EE 21%. Cantu is a little bit better than EE at driving in runs when his teammates give him the opportunity to do so. But if EE's teammates don't get on base, how can you fault him from not driving them in?

But to the broader point about overall run production, you continue to ignore the reality that OBP counts regardless of where you hit in the lineup or what position you play.

nate
06-22-2010, 07:54 PM
Anyone can look up those stats Nate.

Well, "Sea Ray," I showed that, over their respective careers, EE has a similar baserunner to run conversion rate as Cantu.


What's your conclusion?

Let's go to the tape!


Do you think he'll become a 100 RBI cleanup hitter after he recovers from this wrist injury he had over a year ago?

Given the same number of opportunities as Cantu and his career baserunner to run conversion rate, it wouldn't seem farfetched for him to do so.

camisadelgolf
06-22-2010, 09:39 PM
For whatever reason, EE has been playing/struggling in Dunedin (A+) instead of Las Vegas (AAA).

Sea Ray
06-22-2010, 10:58 PM
I think Cantu was worth more than the $3.5M the Marlins paid him last year and is not quite on pace to justify the $6M he's getting this year. He's not ridiculously overpaid, but he's no bargain either. I think that a healthy EE is worth what he's getting paid too.

Regarding my use of the word "fool", I was speaking rhetorically to make a point about your failure in logic. That one team is willing to pay a player a certain amount does not prove the player is necessarily worth that much. For example, the Astros are paying Brandon Lyon $5M a year for 2010-2012. This does not necessarily mean that mediocre middle relievers are worth $5M.


If you are using it rhetorically then I totally agree. I wasn't saying that every contract is justified only that Cantu's was. Sounds like we're in total agreement here.






I do disagree. I think that Cantu and EE are very similar players. I'm not sure what you mean by miniscule? Do you mean that it doesn't appear on the back of a baseball card? Just because it's not a stat that goes up on the scoreboard doesn't mean it's not the right stat for the question at hand. If you won't base your argument on the logic of the stat being cited and only your confidence, there's no point in having a discussion. Your confidence in your assertion has no bearing on my understanding of who the better player is.

What you've said is this: "Cantu is better at driving in runners on base than EE". You've supported this by citing RBIs. RBIs are a function of two things: 1) The number of runners who you have the chance to drive in
2) The batter getting the hit / sacrifices which drive those runners in.

We're trying to compare Cantu and EE on #2, how good they are at driving runners in. But RBI doesn't measure just that. It also measures how many chances the guy had to drive runners in to begin with. Do you think Cantu should get credit for having more RBI chances than EE?

If you take two guys who are equally adept at driving in runs and one of them gets twice as many chances to do so, that guy will have more RBI. Simple counting stats cannot be used to compared ability outside of the context of opportunity.

I'm glad that you're confident in your assertion, but your argument is flawed. Even if Cantu is better at driving in runners on base, RBI counts are insufficient evidence. The only thing that is "miniscule" here is trying to make a broad assertion about run production based a stat that conflates a player's ability what that of his teammates.

I disagree with in your assessment of RBIs. That stat also takes into account how often you play and where you hit in the lineup. If he's not worthy of hitting 4th or playing everyday then that is EE's problem. You can't play stratomatic BB here and just plug him in to see how he does as a cleanup hitter for 150 games.

What I mean by miniscule is trying to make sense of the RBI opportunity stat. Does 24% make you a good hitter? Does 20% mean you stink? Stating stats without a conclusion is pointless.






I'm not talking about the future, I'm talking about the past. How many guys did Cantu have on base when he batted? How many did EE? Nate just shared the numbers -- Cantu converted 24% of his RBI opportunities, EE 21%. Cantu is a little bit better than EE at driving in runs when his teammates give him the opportunity to do so. But if EE's teammates don't get on base, how can you fault him from not driving them in?

But to the broader point about overall run production, you continue to ignore the reality that OBP counts regardless of where you hit in the lineup or what position you play.

Exactly and you are living in the past. As of April 2008, I agree with you. EE and Cantu were similar players based on the stats that we don't agree on, how 'bout that? ;)

However as of June 2010 Cantu is a far superior player. He is arguably the top hitter on a major league team and EE is struggling to find work.

I agree that OBP is important but it's more important in a leadoff hitter than a #4 hitter. I'd rather a #4 hitter have 100 RBi and an OBP of .300 than 40 RBI and an OBP of .375.

Sea Ray
06-22-2010, 11:04 PM
Well, "Sea Ray," I showed that, over their respective careers, EE has a similar baserunner to run conversion rate as Cantu.



Let's go to the tape!



Given the same number of opportunities as Cantu and his career baserunner to run conversion rate, it wouldn't seem farfetched for him to do so.

Why is it that Cantu has had several triple digit RBI years and EE hasn't?

If you feel he will get 100 RBI then why hasn't he ever come close thus far?

If you think he's a 100 RBI guy then you ought to encourage the Reds to sign him. Look at our last 20 years here and see how rare that's been.

WVRedsFan
06-23-2010, 12:11 AM
Regardless of all the stats, I have never understood the absolute love many had for Edwin Encarnacion and never will. He was a streaky hitter who at times couldn't field a simple ground ball and his throws were far beyond awful. This board cried fould when he was sent to the minors, praised him when he came back and howled when he was traded to Toronto for that washed up overpaid Scott Rolen. Fact is, over the past two years and in spite of a wrist injury which for some reason hasn't healed yet, his statistics have gone down each year since 2007. In his last 313 AB's, he's hit .212 with some pop, but he's continued to just be horrible in the field. What's to love? He's 27. It's over for him as far as being a significant MLB player is concerned.

Oh yeah. I forgot that broken wrist.

Edwin showed his behind when the Reds traded him for Scott Rolen and the result has been tremendous production and leadership from Rolen and the Blue Jays DFA-ing him and yet the lovefest continues. I don't get it.

Would the Reds claim him on waivers? I think Walt is too smart for that. if he had the respect of this organization, they wouldn't have shoved him to Toronto. I hope he lands in the AL because he might hit .200 for his new team, but he'd kill the Reds. All out ex's do.

nate
06-23-2010, 12:15 AM
Why is it that Cantu has had several triple digit RBI years and EE hasn't?

If by "several," you mean "two," it's basically lineup and team construction. There's not a tremendous difference between their offensive games in their respective career.


If you feel he will get 100 RBI

I have next to no feeling about a player accruing RBI because it doesn't directly measure anything about that player. Rather, it mainly measures lineup and team construction. OBI% measures something that's a mild curiosity but I'm not sure it's a skill above and beyond "hitting." That's why my examples talked about converting runners to runs.


then why hasn't he ever come close thus far?


I would think that if one could time travel and replace Cantu with a healthy EE, it's likely he would convert baserunners to runs at a rate similar to what I posted above.


If you think he's a 100 RBI guy

I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though.

EE and Cantu have converted runners to runs at similar rates throughout their careers.


then you ought to encourage the Reds to sign him.

I'll get right on that.


Look at our last 20 years here and see how rare that's been.

Robot snipers with lasers.

Blitz Dorsey
06-23-2010, 12:29 AM
If Jorge is "Cantu" then Edwin is "Cannot."

Seriously, EE is a dreadful ballplayer, offensively and defensively. I don't know how any Reds fan could defend his broke arse. He's horrible defensively and not much better offensively. Am I missing anything?

kaldaniels
06-23-2010, 12:45 AM
If Jorge is "Cantu" then Edwin is "Cannot."

Seriously, EE is a dreadful ballplayer, offensively and defensively. I don't know how any Reds fan could defend his broke arse. He's horrible defensively and not much better offensively. Am I missing anything?

I'm with you. It may be the fact that you have not put yourself in a spot where you must defend EE lest you change your position on him, a huge Redszone faux pas.

Seriously, for those who think EE is a decent ballplayer...pick a date in the future at which point we can finally acknowledge he is not a good player...I'm tired of this "well he could if"/"when he's healthy" nonsense.

I know one GM does not write the book, but Toronto gave him up for nothing while on the hook for millions to the guy. That speaks pretty loud.

Sea Ray
06-23-2010, 12:46 AM
If Jorge is "Cantu" then Edwin is "Cannot."

Seriously, EE is a dreadful ballplayer, offensively and defensively. I don't know how any Reds fan could defend his broke arse. He's horrible defensively and not much better offensively. Am I missing anything?

RZ can use stats to prove anything and it entertains me to no end...

Yeah, I admit it. I have a warped sense of humor

reds44
06-23-2010, 12:49 AM
Why is it that Cantu has had several triple digit RBI years and EE hasn't?

If you feel he will get 100 RBI then why hasn't he ever come close thus far?

If you think he's a 100 RBI guy then you ought to encourage the Reds to sign him. Look at our last 20 years here and see how rare that's been.
You need to learn to read what people are saying.

TheNext44
06-23-2010, 12:51 AM
Something that everyone is missing in this RBI debate concerning Cantu and EE is that Cantu has 15 point advantage in BA over EE in clutch situations, and a 30 point advantage in SLG over EE in clutch situations.

EE equals things out in terms of OPS by drawing more walks in those situations.

I think that makes a strong argument that Cantu is better at driving in runs than EE. They might provide similar production, but I think the numbers show that Cantu is a better RBI guy than EE.

This doesn't mean that Cantu has a special RBI skill, or that one even exists, but the facts are clear. With runners on base and in scoring position, Cantu has done a better job of driving them in than EE so far in their careers.

kaldaniels
06-23-2010, 12:54 AM
So how far out of bounds am I to suggest that EE's numbers would drop if placed in the fourth spot for an extended period of time.

I mean Ryan Hanigan puts up decent numbers in the 8 hole but my common sense tells me with pitchers bearing down on him at #4 his production would drop sharply. Same idea with EE in my brain.

Again, feel free to let me know how idiotic I am.

WVRedsFan
06-23-2010, 01:09 AM
So how far out of bounds am I to suggest that EE's numbers would drop if placed in the fourth spot for an extended period of time.

I mean Ryan Hanigan puts up decent numbers in the 8 hole but my common sense tells me with pitchers bearing down on him at #4 his production would drop sharply. Same idea with EE in my brain.

Again, feel free to let me know how idiotic I am.Just like the love affair with Hanigan, Leadoff? Give me a beak. Play him 150 games and he's bat .255. Janish the everyday shortstop? He'd hit .220. Unrealistic expectations or small sample size. OCab is our best shortstop and Hernandez is our best catcher. Range? You also need offense. Scoring runs is the name of the game. EdE was just simply a kid who got lucky and was suppported by a great number because of his "potential." That's over and Walt and many others recognized it, he just doesn't have it. So let him go wherever he goes and let him do what he does. I could care less. We have Rolen at third and there's no potential there--only production.

TheNext44
06-23-2010, 01:09 AM
So how far out of bounds am I to suggest that EE's numbers would drop if placed in the fourth spot for an extended period of time.

I mean Ryan Hanigan puts up decent numbers in the 8 hole but my common sense tells me with pitchers bearing down on him at #4 his production would drop sharply. Same idea with EE in my brain.

Again, feel free to let me know how idiotic I am.

It's only two hitters, but Phillips and Stubbs have shown this year that hitters sometimes do produce better in certain batting slots than others.

RedsManRick
06-23-2010, 01:34 AM
Corey Hart has more RBI than Albert Pujols. Therefore Pujols is a reject of a player and should be barred from baseball. Hart is the is the better run producer and deserves his salary whereas Pujols does not. I like this "RBI are the only thing that matters in the world" game. Time to give up all of that crazy logic and reasoning crap. It's all right there in black in and white in the stats my papi told me about.

Spring~Fields
06-23-2010, 01:39 AM
It's only two hitters, but Phillips and Stubbs have shown this year that hitters sometimes do produce better in certain batting slots than others.

I still think that EE would have been a decent first baseman because he could field but, he never seemed to be reliable on the throw. Hasn’t he also accumulated a list of injuries over the years now?

I am not so sure he was ever handled right, and I never thought that he was positioned correctly in the batting order. I don’t know.

I wish him well where he goes.

Maybe when he reaches 33 - 35 he can come and sign back up with the Reds minor leagues. ;)

Spring~Fields
06-23-2010, 01:49 AM
Just like the love affair with Hanigan, Leadoff? Give me a beak. Play him 150 games and he's bat .255. Janish the everyday shortstop? He'd hit .220. Unrealistic expectations or small sample size. OCab is our best shortstop and Hernandez is our best catcher.

Dusty is that you?

I just don't know how you or I can tell what one will or will not hit until we see them play regularly.

I don't think Cabrera is the Reds best defensive shorstop. I don't think that he carries an OBP to be getting the amount of PA that a one or two slot batter gets, while we say we care about offense, offensive production.

I don't quite understand how you can say that Hernandez is the better catcher either, defensively, calling the game or with the bat.

What is your thoughts on Heisey vs Stubbs? Fleet of foot that can't reach first base Stubbs? While Heisey gets robbed of opportunity?

How do we say that offense is the name of the game (even though pitching is) but, how do we say that offense is the name of the game and while we blow off on base percentages at the same time?

Ron Madden
06-23-2010, 03:22 AM
What's silly is to think that FL can sign EE tomorrow, plunk him into Cantu's role and produce like Jorge has.

He never said that either.

Ron Madden
06-23-2010, 03:29 AM
It only takes 1 fool... One team does not a market valuation make. And EE was only let go a few days ago; how do you know that nobody wants him at $4.75? Also, signing a guy in the offseason is very different than picking him off the wire mid-season after rosters are established and budgets are set.



No, run conversion is not counting stats. It's rate stats. Counting stats completely ignore opportunity. At its simplest, is a guy who drives in 100 runs in 600 PA a better run producer than a guy who drives in 60 in 300? Specifically for RBI, we can (and should) look at how many guys were actually on base for the guy to drive in. If both guys drive in 15% of the runners on base for them, but one guy gets to hit with guys on base more often, he'll drive in more runs. Why would you givie him credit for his teammates' getting on base?

And you're still completely ignoring the value of getting on base for the guys behind you. No player's offensive game can be judged accurately on only 1 component of offensive production -- they all count for everybody. This is particularly true if you want to talk about who's worth more money.

I don't know whether or not Cantu or EE converts more of their RBI opportunities. I would guess Cantu, slightly, due to his marginally higher slugging percentage and batting average. But you have to look at the opportunities to make the sort of assertion you'r making.

Well said.

reds44
06-23-2010, 03:35 AM
Corey Hart has more RBI than Albert Pujols. Therefore Pujols is a reject of a player and should be barred from baseball. Hart is the is the better run producer and deserves his salary whereas Pujols does not. I like this "RBI are the only thing that matters in the world" game. Time to give up all of that crazy logic and reasoning crap. It's all right there in black in and white in the stats my papi told me about.
There's really nothing to back up the claims that Edwin couldn't do what Cantu is doing. None.

Plus Plus
06-23-2010, 07:32 AM
Corey Hart has more RBI than Albert Pujols. Therefore Pujols is a reject of a player and should be barred from baseball. Hart is the is the better run producer and deserves his salary whereas Pujols does not. I like this "RBI are the only thing that matters in the world" game. Time to give up all of that crazy logic and reasoning crap. It's all right there in black in and white in the stats my papi told me about.

This is an absolutely ridiculous misrepresentation of any argument being made in this thread. Shame on you; you are a much better poster than this.

To be frank, neither Cantu nor EE are very good at baseball. Cantu just happened to fall into a pool of counting stats and got rewarded for it with a $6mil contract, which is nothing to write home about in terms of baseball payscales. EE never did such a thing (re: counting stats), and whether it is due to a skillset that he does not have or a lineup construction situation is irrelevant. Cantu also has been playing 1b equally with 3b this season, and has a much better uzr for his career at 1b (-1.0) than 3b (-16.5), so this may have something to do with his value (or lack thereof).

If I had a choice between a poor fielding 1b/3b with an OPS of .765 and a poor fielding 3b with an OPS of .785, then I would go with the third option, "what's in the box."

Ltlabner
06-23-2010, 08:25 AM
I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though.

In the few times I check into RZ anymore it's Nate that usually has something worth reading.

nemesis
06-23-2010, 08:33 AM
Nate sounds like he is a RedvsBlue fan... LOL

Roy Tucker
06-23-2010, 08:40 AM
Robot snipers with lasers.

This post made my day. :thumbup:

RZ has some pretty darn good stuff in it sometimes.

HokieRed
06-23-2010, 08:44 AM
An unsophisticated but sincere statistical question: Is there any single best correlation for RBI's that could be used to get around the "opportunities" dilemma?

Sea Ray
06-23-2010, 09:19 AM
You need to learn to read what people are saying.

Fine. Educate me

Sea Ray
06-23-2010, 09:24 AM
He never said that either.

Why not since they are so similar? Tell me how they differ

Tommyjohn25
06-23-2010, 09:58 AM
Okay, seriously? Do I really have to come into a EDWIN thread to tell you guys to knock off the personal insulting garbage?? Goodness gracious...cut it out.

RedsManRick
06-23-2010, 10:31 AM
An unsophisticated but sincere statistical question: Is there any single best correlation for RBI's that could be used to get around the "opportunities" dilemma?

In terms of correlating to other easily accessible stats, RBI correlates most closely to SLG. Combine SLG and opportunities and you can estimate RBI pretty closely.

Whether or not you want to give credit for the opportunities a player gets to that player (due to playing time, lineup construction, teammate OBP, etc.) is up to you. But if you want to see who is skilled at driving in runs, SLG gets you most of the way there.

nate
06-23-2010, 10:32 AM
Well I had a post with great detail all but written and my browser crashed. I just wanted to post my numbers.


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 total
PA
Cantu 185 631 448 133 685 643 293 2202
EE 234 467 560 582 338 141 1621

PA_ROB
Cantu 84 316 203 56 327 366 138 1090
EE 105 235 262 265 136 53 716

ROB
Cantu 116 422 281 85 440 513 202 1521
EE 179 336 372 372 193 79 1016

OBI
Cantu 15 89 48 20 66 84 37 255
EE 22 57 60 42 26 13 141

PA% w/ROB
Cantu 45% 50% 45% 42% 48% 57% 47% 50%
EE 45% 50% 47% 46% 40% 38% 44%

OBI%
Cantu 13% 21% 17% 24% 15% 16% 18% 17%
EE 12% 17% 16% 11% 13% 16% 14%

BR to Runs
Cantu 18% 28% 24% 36% 20% 23% 27% 23%
EE 21% 24% 23% 16% 19% 25% 20%


BTW, big ups to Google docs for allowing one a perfect C&P from spreadsheet to vBulletin. There could be errors here as I don't have a BP subscription and had to look up all the numbers by year and team for each player.

Here's what we're looking at:

PA: plate appearances
PA_ROB: plate appearances with runners on base
ROB: number of runners on base
OBI: number of runners converted to runs
PA% w/ROB: percentage of plate appearances that occur with runners on base
OBI%: the percentage of runners converted to runs
BR to Runs: the rate of success at scoring at least a single run with ROB

Basically, Cantu has had more opportunities and has been slightly better than EE in converting baserunners to runs. As I said previously, given health, similar opportunities and perhaps some milk and cookies, it's likely that EE would produce similarly to Cantu. Something I would find interesting is the correlation of the OBP% by the hitters directly in front of EE and Cantu which would be no small feat.

I just don't see how this is a paradigm-shifting concept that elevates blood pressure and arm hair. These two careers are not that far apart in terms of driving in runs.

RedsManRick
06-23-2010, 10:51 AM
I just don't see how this is a paradigm-shifting concept that elevates blood pressure and arm hair. These two careers are not that far apart in terms of driving in runs.

And when you factor in that EE is a bit better at getting on base and that both are poor defenders, you wind up with two pretty similar players from a skill/talent perspective.

That Cantu has had more opportunity due to better health, better teammates, and GMs more patient with his defensive struggles is a different conversation as far as I'm concerned.

Spring~Fields
06-23-2010, 10:55 AM
Nate, nice work and interesting comparison. Lays it out pretty clear, even for me. :)

Looks like EE had some shortened or intermittent seasons in there, caused by injuries or otherwise, I assume.

mdccclxix
06-23-2010, 12:26 PM
All the "is EE as good as Cantu" stuff aside, I think it's premature for anyone to declare that he's done. When you look at what he did at the plate at 23, 24, 25 years old, it's pretty impressive. OPS's of .831, .794, and .807 while hitting 6th or 7th in the order. That kind of production could round out an AL lineup pretty well. I think there's little doubt he can play 1st or LF better than 3b, and once his health issues are behind him it will do wonders while he is 27, 28, 29, 30...I'd be picking up the phone if I was Seattle, Oakland, KC, Baltimore, Houston, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh...

westofyou
06-23-2010, 12:37 PM
All the "is EE as good as Cantu" stuff aside, I think it's premature for anyone to declare that he's done. When you look at what he did at the plate at 23, 24, 25 years old, it's pretty impressive. OPS's of .831, .794, and .807 while hitting 6th or 7th in the order. That kind of production could round out an AL lineup pretty well. I think there's little doubt he can play 1st or LF better than 3b, and once his health issues are behind him it will do wonders while he is 27, 28, 29, 30...I'd be picking up the phone if I was Seattle, Oakland, KC, Baltimore, Houston, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh...

Willie Greene was an Oriole.

lollipopcurve
06-23-2010, 12:40 PM
I think there's little doubt he can play 1st or LF better than 3b

Disagree. I think he'd struggle out in LF.

Sea Ray
06-23-2010, 01:56 PM
All the "is EE as good as Cantu" stuff aside, I think it's premature for anyone to declare that he's done. When you look at what he did at the plate at 23, 24, 25 years old, it's pretty impressive. OPS's of .831, .794, and .807 while hitting 6th or 7th in the order. That kind of production could round out an AL lineup pretty well. I think there's little doubt he can play 1st or LF better than 3b, and once his health issues are behind him it will do wonders while he is 27, 28, 29, 30...I'd be picking up the phone if I was Seattle, Oakland, KC, Baltimore, Houston, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh...

It's premature to say he's done. He'll get the opportunity to turn his game around like Cantu did with Florida. Whether he does or not will answer these questions ultimately, not baseballreference

Chip R
06-23-2010, 01:57 PM
It's premature to say he's done. He'll get the opportunity to turn his game around like Cantu did with Florida. Whether he does or not will answer these questions ultimately, not baseballreference


I think that he got a chance in TOR. He just couldn't get it done there.

Sea Ray
06-23-2010, 02:06 PM
I think that he got a chance in TOR. He just couldn't get it done there.

He sure did but he'll get more chances. Let's hope those chances are in places other than Cincinnati

RedsManRick
06-23-2010, 02:09 PM
I think that he got a chance in TOR. He just couldn't get it done there.

Supposedly Toronto never wanted him in the first place. He just needed to be included for the trade to work out. That's not a recipe for success.

westofyou
06-23-2010, 02:13 PM
Supposedly Toronto never wanted him in the first place. He just needed to be included for the trade to work out. That's not a recipe for success.

It's hardly an industry wide vote of confidence on his chances of succeeding too.

Sea Ray
06-23-2010, 02:28 PM
Supposedly Toronto never wanted him in the first place. He just needed to be included for the trade to work out. That's not a recipe for success.

Toronto didn't want him because they didn't feel he was any good but I'm sure they wanted to be wrong. They don't have another wonderful 3B option sitting around. Life would have been much easier for them if EE had put up Cantu numbers

IslandRed
06-23-2010, 02:34 PM
When you look at what he did at the plate at 23, 24, 25 years old, it's pretty impressive. OPS's of .831, .794, and .807 while hitting 6th or 7th in the order. That kind of production could round out an AL lineup pretty well. I think there's little doubt he can play 1st or LF better than 3b, and once his health issues are behind him it will do wonders while he is 27, 28, 29, 30...I'd be picking up the phone if I was Seattle, Oakland, KC, Baltimore, Houston, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh...

Encarnacion always had an affinity for GABP, but his career road OPS is a more underwhelming .755. That's not terrible or anything, but it's a little light for someone who's played his way to the "big bat needed" end of the defensive spectrum. Since he can field a ground ball and play third in a pinch, I expect he'll remain employed for awhile if he can catch a fly ball, but he's going to have a hard time sticking as a regular anywhere.

Chip R
06-23-2010, 02:35 PM
He sure did but he'll get more chances. Let's hope those chances are in places other than Cincinnati


The difference is that Cantu hit very well and has continued to do so when he got to FLA. He was cheap and that was exactly what FLA was looking for. EE is not cheap but this is the last year on his deal, IIRC. His defensive liabilities are still there and he has hit in TOR about as well as he did in Cincinnati. I can't blame TOR for getting rid of him and I was a defender of EE when he was here.

Sea Ray
06-23-2010, 02:37 PM
The difference is that Cantu hit very well and has continued to do so when he got to FLA. He was cheap and that was exactly what FLA was looking for. EE is not cheap but this is the last year on his deal, IIRC. His defensive liabilities are still there and he has hit in TOR about as well as he did in Cincinnati. I can't blame TOR for getting rid of him and I was a defender of EE when he was here.

EE is cheap now. Unless someone wants to acquire him in a deal, he can be signed for the league minimum.

RedsManRick
06-23-2010, 02:46 PM
It's hardly an industry wide vote of confidence on his chances of succeeding too.

I don't think I ever suggested it was. Unless a trade happens, we should see soon what sort of market demand there is for his services -- though midseason moves are notably different than offseason ones.

westofyou
06-23-2010, 02:49 PM
I don't think I ever suggested it was. Unless a trade happens, we should see soon what sort of market demand there is for his services.

Actualy I'm more interested in what EE does than with whom he does it with.

As I said prior Willie Greene was a Cub, and he was about EE's age too, and he just faded into the woodwork after that.

Will EE or will he pull his career out of an obvious tailspin.

Roy Tucker
06-23-2010, 02:52 PM
I'm sure somebody will dumpster dive with EE another time or 3.

A guy who has shown flashes of goodness at the MLB level will get lots of chances, albeit at lower contractual values and durations.

Rojo
06-23-2010, 07:12 PM
That's not terrible or anything, but it's a little light for someone who's played his way to the "big bat needed" end of the defensive spectrum.

The glove didn't materialize, making him a 'tweener -- at best.

Redsfan320
06-23-2010, 08:36 PM
This has to be awful for EE. To be just good enough to hang on at the MLB level (and he did have some good times), and then finally be sent back down.

320

lollipopcurve
06-24-2010, 08:58 AM
I don't think I ever suggested it was. Unless a trade happens, we should see soon what sort of market demand there is for his services -- though midseason moves are notably different than offseason ones.

He cleared waivers.

Sea Ray
07-15-2010, 09:25 AM
Just to keep this thread up to date, after being sent to AAA Las Vegas for a few days, he was brought back to Toronto to play 3B. He's still struggling but at least he's in the big leagues