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nate
06-21-2010, 12:28 PM
Since we have an ultimate defense thread (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=82774), why not have an ultimate pitching thread. Yeah, baby!

Pitching, I think we need better pitching. As of the first day of summer, Reds starters rank thusly amongst NL teams:

ERA: 11th (4.44)
FIP: 12th (4.38)
xFIP: 13th (4.53)

The Cardinals lead in all of those categories.

Relievers!

ERA: 13th (4.72)
FIP: 12th (4.11)
xFIP: 10th (4.44)

Looks like the Padres have the best bullpen in the league.

Pitching: it needs improvement and drastic improvement if the Reds are to contend.

Discuss!

TRF
06-21-2010, 12:33 PM
um... duh? :)

the pitching has been disappointing, none more so than Homer Bailey, who teased us at the end of last season. the pen is atrocious except for Rhodes freakish season. The latest promotion smacks of desperation, hoping anyone can do better. I hope Burton and Bray comeback healthy and effective soon.

Scrap Irony
06-21-2010, 12:40 PM
With the apparent July 7 start of Volquez, they should improve, at least nominally, in both spots. (I'm assuming starter LeCure will be sent to the pen and the worst pen arm will be then sent to Louisville.)

Bill Bray, after a year and a half off for TJ surgery, looks dominant in a small sample of minor league games. He's likely to be much better than, say, either Massett or DRH in those respective roles. Burton, too, may help, assuming his stuff improves slightly. (So far, he's been fairly pedestrian in AAA and has given up 3(!) HR in only 12 IP.)

If Bailey can find health, that's another plus arm to either the rotation or pen.

Add in Maloney, Chapman, and Wood as possible arms from AAA depth and the team could improve a great deal with only moves from within.

(That said, I'd prefer a deal for Dan Haren or Fausto Carmona or someone that has shown TOR talent, with Aaron Harang moving to the bullpen as a set-up man.)

OnBaseMachine
06-21-2010, 01:01 PM
I agree with Scrap. I'd start targeting a SP in a trade, preferably one who is locked up for a few years, like Dan Haren or Fausto Carmona. Both of those guys would be excellent acquisitions, IMO.

nate
06-21-2010, 01:24 PM
With the apparent July 7 start of Volquez, they should improve, at least nominally, in both spots. (I'm assuming starter LeCure will be sent to the pen and the worst pen arm will be then sent to Louisville.)

Bill Bray, after a year and a half off for TJ surgery, looks dominant in a small sample of minor league games. He's likely to be much better than, say, either Massett or DRH in those respective roles. Burton, too, may help, assuming his stuff improves slightly. (So far, he's been fairly pedestrian in AAA and has given up 3(!) HR in only 12 IP.)

If Bailey can find health, that's another plus arm to either the rotation or pen.

Add in Maloney, Chapman, and Wood as possible arms from AAA depth and the team could improve a great deal with only moves from within.

(That said, I'd prefer a deal for Dan Haren or Fausto Carmona or someone that has shown TOR talent, with Aaron Harang moving to the bullpen as a set-up man.)

I want Homer to be a plus arm but I'm not seeing any indication that he actually is. I know he was good at the end of last year. Show me that for a season, otherwise, he's average-ish and simply makes the talent pool wider rather than deeper.

I'm not very high on Carmona either. Haren, yes.

jojo
06-21-2010, 03:59 PM
With regards to EV's return, we probably shouldn't expect the cavalry. If he doesn't suffer from command issues and is pretty effective, we should consider it a bonus rather than a plan. Also, Jocketty has another wild card in his pocket in Chapman that could be helpful but probably shouldn't be counted upon as cavalry.

The rotation could be fixed in the second half, but really its a best case scenario than shouldn't be expected.

That's also probably why Lee isn't an option for the Reds to pursue. I'm guessing he's like plan C and he'll probably be gone by the time they get to plan C assuming the Reds would still be considered reasonable contenders if it got to a plan C.

Scrap Irony
06-21-2010, 04:20 PM
I want Homer to be a plus arm but I'm not seeing any indication that he actually is. I know he was good at the end of last year. Show me that for a season, otherwise, he's average-ish and simply makes the talent pool wider rather than deeper.

I'm not very high on Carmona either. Haren, yes.

His average-ish arm (say, a 100 OPS+) would be better than half the pen currently.

Falls City Beer
06-21-2010, 04:28 PM
Both fans and the front office bought into a failed narrative that the pitching depth and talent would translate into production. Conversely, their narrative ignored the impact a couple of bats could make in completely re-writing this offense. Which year is it again?

I think jojo's right; too little too late--at least for the sake of contention. Nevertheless, a trade for a starter should still be front and center for this deadline. Two starters leave next year, and right now (and potentially never--or at least not currently), there's no one in this system to take their place. They need to have a warm body to ease them away from Leake overuse as well.

nate
06-21-2010, 04:48 PM
His average-ish arm (say, a 100 OPS+) would be better than half the pen currently.

Who are you referring to when you say "his?"

I thought we were talking about starters, not the bullpen.

Scrap Irony
06-21-2010, 04:58 PM
Bailey. I mentioned him as both a starter canidate, or, if the Reds can find five starters who can pitch better than average-ish, as a bullpen arm.

With Leake, Arroyo, Cueto, and Volquez as probable starters, Bailey could be the odd man out if Cincinnati also finds a starter from outside the organization.

If that happens, both Harang and Bailey would become bullpen arms, along with AAA guys like Wood (would make a dynamite LOOGY in place of Herrera) or Maloney (who would be a fine middle reliever).

nate
06-21-2010, 05:05 PM
Bailey. I mentioned him as both a starter canidate, or, if the Reds can find five starters who can pitch better than average-ish, as a bullpen arm.

Did you mean ERA+ instead of OPS+?

Bailey's is 77 this year, 80 for his career.

I'm just not counting on him at this point.

fearofpopvol1
06-21-2010, 05:06 PM
Wood has been putting up some pretty good numbers in AAA. His history of walking batters concerns me some, but I'd be inclined to believe he would be better than Harang/Lecure/Bailey at this point.

Scrap Irony
06-21-2010, 05:49 PM
Did you mean ERA+ instead of OPS+?

Bailey's is 77 this year, 80 for his career.

I'm just not counting on him at this point.

Dude, you were the one who said he was a "league average-ish" arm. Are you now arguing against Bailey being league average? If so, you're kinda arguing with yourself.

And, yeah, I meant ERA+, not OPS+. That's what watching a 20-month-old will do to your brain.

nate
06-21-2010, 05:59 PM
Dude, you were the one who said he was a "league average-ish" arm. Are you now arguing against Bailey being league average? If so, you're kinda arguing with yourself.

And, yeah, I meant ERA+, not OPS+. That's what watching a 20-month-old will do to your brain.

Well, "ish" +/- 20% then. Like I said, I want him to be good but I'm not counting on it.

All I'm saying is, I don't want the Reds to mess around on the fringes and hope something works out. Get some who has and will be good.

The Cardinals' pitching ain't getting any worse.