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OnBaseMachine
06-22-2010, 01:48 PM
Will the second half Bronson Arroyo show up again this season? Going back to 2007, Bronson Arroyo has been a second half pitcher. Take a look at his first and second half splits the last three seasons. If it happens again, it would almost be like acquiring a top of rotation starter in late June.

2007:

first half - 111.2 IP, 127 H, 9 HR, 38 BB/75 K, 4.84 ERA

second half - 99 IP, 105 H, 19 HR, 25 BB/81 K, 3.55 ERA

2008:

first half - 104 IP, 132 H, 19 HR, 41 BB/93 K, 5.97 ERA

second half - 96 IP, 87 H, 10 HR, 27 BB/70 K, 3.47 ERA

2009:

first half - 112 IP, 125 H, 21 HR, 41 BB/59 K, 5.38 ERA

second half - 108.1 IP, 89 H, 10 HR, 24 BB/68 K, 2.24 ERA

Three-year splits:

first half - 5.38 ERA in 327.2 IP

second half - 3.06 ERA in 303.1 IP

If the second half Bronson Arroyo shows up again it would not only be a huge boost to the pitching staff but it would also increase the Reds playoff chances. If the Reds can go out and add a Dan Haren, Cliff Lee, Fausto Carmona, or Roy Oswalt, and the 2007-2009 second half Arroyo shows up coincided with the return of Edinson Volquez, the pitching staff could all of a sudden be a strength. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

RedsManRick
06-22-2010, 02:05 PM
Normally I'm not big on 1st/2nd half splits, but that's a pretty substantial trend. That said I always think it's worth trying to figure out the why when looking at splits like this. Even a 95% confidence interval is wrong 5% of the time.

1st 1/2 IP H HR BB K ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 FIP
2007 111.7 127 9 38 75 4.84 10.2 0.73 3.1 6.0 4.60
2008 104.0 132 19 41 93 5.97 11.4 1.64 3.5 8.0 5.86
2009 112.0 125 21 41 59 5.37 10.0 1.69 3.3 4.7 6.21
Total 327.7 384 49 120 227 5.38 10.5 1.35 3.3 6.2 5.55

2nd 1/2 IP H HR BB K ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 FIP
2007 99.0 105 19 25 81 3.55 9.5 1.73 2.3 7.4 5.63
2008 96.0 87 10 27 70 3.47 8.2 0.94 2.5 6.6 4.67
2009 108.3 89 10 24 68 2.24 7.4 0.83 2.0 5.7 4.44
Total 303.3 281 39 76 219 3.06 8.3 1.16 2.3 6.5 4.90

It looks the two biggest factors are decreased hit and walk rates, with decreased HR and increased K rates a distant 3rd and 4th.

Without getting in to the underlying batted ball data, that hit rate drop is pretty hard to attribute to Arroyo. That shows up in the FIP as well. It does look like Arroyo has pitched better in the first half than the second, but that the ERA split is significantly boosted by some really good luck on balls in play. I wonder if the Reds have done anything consistently over those 3 years in terms of improving their defense in the 2nd half of the season.

If I had to bet, I'd put my money on Arroyo basically continuing to pitch as he's pitched so far this year, with an ERA in the mid 4s with variation happening as regression to the mean of his low K/9, which has been offset by a low BABIP and LOB%.

OnBaseMachine
06-22-2010, 02:12 PM
Yeah, I forgot to add in my original post I'm not a big fan of first/second half splits but when it happens three years in a row I think there could be something to it. If he repeats what he did in the second half of 2007-2009 then the Reds should remain in the race, especially if they get some more help via trade.

MikeS21
06-22-2010, 02:15 PM
Thing about Arroyo is that when he is good he is really good and when he is bad he is REALLY bad. BA is lights out for 4-5 straight games, then he has a stinker game where he can't get anyone out - including the big "Klu" statue outside GABP.

As long as he keeps his "bad" games to a minimum, he will be fine. I'm not sure if it is the Cincinnati summers and humidity or what, but it does seem like he is a different pitcher in July-August-September than he is in April-May-June.

edabbs44
06-23-2010, 08:38 AM
Funny take from rotoworld:


Bronson Arroyo pitched eight innings of two-run ball Tuesday in a victory over the Athletics.

Arroyo is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA through four starts this month and 6-1 since the beginning of May. Yep, he's definitely due for one of those Arroyo specials in which he gives up eight runs in 1 1/3 innings.

Scrap Irony
06-23-2010, 10:33 AM
Anyone else slightly worried about Arroyo's fastball? I haven't seen one break 90 in four games. Last night, I think he had one FB over 85 total, according to the Fox Cincinnati gun.

Perhaps he's saving something for the second half?

nate
06-23-2010, 10:40 AM
Anyone else slightly worried about Arroyo's fastball? I haven't seen one break 90 in four games. Last night, I think he had one FB over 85 total, according to the Fox Cincinnati gun.

Perhaps he's saving something for the second half?

Or working on the solo to "Eruption."

:cool:

RedsManRick
06-23-2010, 11:03 AM
Anyone else slightly worried about Arroyo's fastball? I haven't seen one break 90 in four games. Last night, I think he had one FB over 85 total, according to the Fox Cincinnati gun.

Perhaps he's saving something for the second half?

Fangraphs is the go to for this kind of stuff. It looks like his velocity was down, but not quite that badly.

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxg.aspx?playerid=978&position=P&season=2010&date=2010-06-17&dh=0
http://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/978_P_FA_20100617.png
http://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/978_P_2_201006170_game.png
http://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/978_P_3_201006170_game.png

fearofpopvol1
06-23-2010, 12:13 PM
Let's hope that if he is indeed a 2nd half guy, last night was the beginning of good things to come.