PDA

View Full Version : Fay: Trade Harang



TheNext44
06-25-2010, 03:12 PM
Reds Should Trade Harang (http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20100624/SPT04/6250375/Trade-deadline-scenarios-for-Reds)


Harang's been good enough following a 7.16 ERA in five April starts that a contending team might take a flyer on him at the deadline.

Starting pitching is always the top commodity at the deadline. Harang is 5-4 with a 4.26 ERA in his last 11 starts. Pitching in a home park less conducive to home runs would likely help his numbers.

If Volquez comes back strong, you have to think the Reds will take a hard look at moving Harang....

Shortstop is a position the Reds need to address down the line. If they decide to part ways with Harang, a shortstop of the future should be high on the list.

Caveat Emperor
06-25-2010, 03:13 PM
I suppose you'd have to find someone dumb enough to take him...

nate
06-25-2010, 03:17 PM
I think one of the few differences between Harang and Mike Leake is the HR/9 rate and $$$. I think Harang is one of the Reds 3 best pitchers. I don't know if that's a good or bad thing.

I would be all for trading Fay though!

:cool:

Redsfan320
06-25-2010, 03:21 PM
I think Harang is one of the Reds 3 best pitchers.

Are you saying you think he's better than 2 of the following: Arroyo, Leake, Rhodes, Cueto??

320

Brutus
06-25-2010, 03:21 PM
The only reason the Reds would trade him, I suspect, if it's to clear salary space to take on a Cliff Lee, Dan Haren, etc.

lollipopcurve
06-25-2010, 03:23 PM
Harang is definitely the guy to try to move, IMO. So far as I can tell, he just can't get anything out of his breaking stuff any more. He might break off a good one here and there, but it's rare. If he doesn't have good command of the fastball, he's very vulnerable.

I don't see any takers, unless he strings together a bunch of good starts over the next 5 weeks (in which case, they'll have to think twice about trading him).

Mario-Rijo
06-25-2010, 03:26 PM
I suppose you'd have to find someone dumb enough to take him...

Yeah I don't really see anyone desperate enough to take him on. Best case scenario we would have to take back a similiar contract. Maybe the Mets but are they really a contender? I'm sure Luis Castillo would be in that deal. I just don't see a realistic match anywhere.

Rojo
06-25-2010, 03:28 PM
I'd move him if I had a plan to add a TOR. I wouldn't put all my eggs in the Volquez basket.

bucksfan2
06-25-2010, 03:29 PM
Yeah I don't really see anyone desperate enough to take him on. Best case scenario we would have to take back a similiar contract. Maybe the Mets but are they really a contender? I'm sure Luis Castillo would be in that deal. I just don't see a realistic match anywhere.

Yea his contract and declining stuff will make him very difficult to move.

dunner13
06-25-2010, 03:34 PM
is there any chance that harangs a type a or b free agent after this year and we could get some draft picks for him? I would think theres a least a decent chance that arroyo would be a type a.

Will M
06-25-2010, 03:42 PM
is there any chance that harangs a type a or b free agent after this year and we could get some draft picks for him? I would think theres a least a decent chance that arroyo would be a type a.

zero.

if the team declined his option & then offered him arbitration he would take it.

bucksfan2
06-25-2010, 03:42 PM
is there any chance that harangs a type a or b free agent after this year and we could get some draft picks for him? I would think theres a least a decent chance that arroyo would be a type a.

How does that work? You have to decline their option and then offer them arb. Is that legal?

Benihana
06-25-2010, 03:48 PM
Trade Harang for a young SS? Sounds great John.

Then trade Chris Dickerson for Cliff Lee and we'll be all set. :rolleyes:

The only team I could envision with remote interest in a deal like that would be the Dodgers, but due to the ownership situation their payroll seems to be shrinking. As per the other thread, maybe the Reds could trade Harang, Stubbs, and Wood for Matt Kemp. Then turn around and trade Alonso and Mesoraco for Cliff Lee. Then wake me up after we win the World Series.

RedsManRick
06-25-2010, 03:59 PM
If you trade Harang, you aren't likely to get salary relief from it. And if you do get salary relief, that's pretty much all you're going to get.

I find it interesting that Fay mentioned just the top 4 starters. Does the 5th not matter?

Brutus
06-25-2010, 04:01 PM
How does that work? You have to decline their option and then offer them arb. Is that legal?

Nope. It's not. If there's an option to be exercised, teams cannot get any compensation.

HokieRed
06-25-2010, 04:04 PM
If you trade Harang, you aren't likely to get salary relief from it. And if you do get salary relief, that's pretty much all you're going to get.

I find it interesting that Fay mentioned just the top 4 starters. Does the 5th not matter?


Agree 100%. The other side will consider that it has given the Reds plenty in taking on whatever part of the contract can be settled on. Given that fact, I think we keep him as long as we're in it from the recognition he's good insurance against injury/weariness on the part of the young uns.

Johnny Footstool
06-25-2010, 04:05 PM
Harang would bring very little in return. The Reds will have to trade Arroyo and Cordero to get a "SS of the future" prospect.

nate
06-25-2010, 04:18 PM
Are you saying you think he's better than 2 of the following: Arroyo, Leake, Rhodes, Cueto??

320

I should say, "starting pitchers." I think he's better than Arroyo and Bailey.

Roy Tucker
06-25-2010, 04:48 PM
Starting pitching is always a worry.

I think Bailey's shoulder will be a problem for a while still, things are going too well with Volquez and he's due for a setback (you know it will happen), who knows what level of success Chapman will have, and Leake needs innings alleviation.

Arroyo, Cueto, and Harang have been the innings horses. If the Reds are serious about contending (and I sure as heck hope they are), I see that continuing throuugh the end of the season.

Of course, if Aaron pitches well and the Reds get their socks knocked off with an offer for him, that's when Jocketty earns his keep and makes a tough decision. I'd like that to happen but I don't think it will.

nemesis
06-25-2010, 04:50 PM
Harang would bring very little in return. The Reds will have to trade Arroyo and Cordero to get a "SS of the future" prospect.

Cordero's stock is free falling right now. It's not just his performance either. That $12 Million dollar price tag is a big reason. If he was making $6-8 Million it might be more attractive to pick him up as a top flight set up man. No team contending would pay $12 Mil for a set up guy next year. Honestly there is no one on the Reds roster who is capible of saving games better than Cordero.

Sad.

Arroyo is untradible just because this team needs a innings eater. Harang has seemingly lost that ability so dumping Arroyo could cause the team to rely on its weakest link (bullpen) more often.

I'd move Harang, Nix and maybe Dickerson to the Mets for a swap of Castillo, Chris Carter and cash. Carter has shown extreme SLG and OBP skills in the minors as well as a low K rate. He would be an upgrade over Nix as a LH PH. Could be a replacement to Gomes in LF next year if he tails of at the end of the year...If not cheap controllable in house option.

_Sir_Charles_
06-25-2010, 04:58 PM
If you trade Harang, you aren't likely to get salary relief from it. And if you do get salary relief, that's pretty much all you're going to get.

I find it interesting that Fay mentioned just the top 4 starters. Does the 5th not matter?

The 5th is injured. Bailey & Volquez. So he was referring to the healthy starters. LeCure is a fill-in.

fearofpopvol1
06-25-2010, 05:37 PM
Trade Harang for a young SS? Sounds great John.

Then trade Chris Dickerson for Cliff Lee and we'll be all set. :rolleyes:

This is what I thought too. What team in their right mind would trade a SS of the future for 3-4 months of Harang?

TheNext44
06-25-2010, 06:12 PM
This is what I thought too. What team in their right mind would trade a SS of the future for 3-4 months of Harang?

If the Reds payed his whole salary, including his buyout. He's a solid back of the rotation starter, that a team in contention could use to eat up innings down the stretch. If he doesn't add to their payroll, that should be worth a good prospect, although I doubt one better than Cozart.

PuffyPig
06-25-2010, 06:49 PM
I think the Reds should be the contender to take a flyer on him.

He's been one of our best starters since his first 5 starts.

In case anyone hasn't noticed, our starters haven't been all that great this year.

I'd be surprised if at any time this year Harang doesn't rank among our best 5 starters.

MississippiRed
06-25-2010, 06:54 PM
I think the Reds should be the contender to take a flyer on him.

He's been one of our best starters since his first 5 starts.

In case anyone hasn't noticed, our starters haven't been all that great this year.

I'd be surprised if at any time this year Harang doesn't rank among our best 5 starters.

I agree with this, Puffy. I know we're not used to it, but the Reds are a contending team this year. We should be buyers, not sellers. If we trade Harang, it should be with some prospects to improve our starting pitching (or some other part of the team). I'm certainly not interested in trading Harang while Lecure is pitching every 5th day.

I'm uninterested in salary relief this year. It seems like a lot of folks are thinking that we don't really have a shot this year and should plan for next year. But I read on this site a few years ago that "you don't pick the year, the year picks you." Who knows, with injuries and free agency, maybe this is the best year we are going to see for a while--go for it!

fearofpopvol1
06-26-2010, 01:36 AM
If the Reds payed his whole salary, including his buyout. He's a solid back of the rotation starter, that a team in contention could use to eat up innings down the stretch. If he doesn't add to their payroll, that should be worth a good prospect, although I doubt one better than Cozart.

I cannot imagine any scenario where they would trade Harang and pay his salary and get a SS of the future, as Fay suggests. Sure, they could get a player worse than Cozart...but is that a SS of the future?

marcshoe
06-26-2010, 01:42 AM
I think the Reds should be the contender to take a flyer on him.

He's been one of our best starters since his first 5 starts.

In case anyone hasn't noticed, our starters haven't been all that great this year.

I'd be surprised if at any time this year Harang doesn't rank among our best 5 starters.

yep. Harang's worth more to this team than anything they'd get for him, including salary relief. he's pitching pretty solidly right now, and is a fine, workmanlike cog in the rotation of a contender, which the Reds finally are.

kaldaniels
06-26-2010, 01:44 AM
I've been more and more impressed by Harang here lately. I'd say if he can really lock down and be a 3.25-3.50 ERA pitcher the rest of the way, the Reds will have the division locked up. Granted that is a hypothetical, but man its been a few years since we've been able to count on him.

Go get 'em Aaron.

Matt700wlw
06-26-2010, 01:45 AM
If you can trade Harang, and free up money to bring in players that help now, then do it. The Reds shouldn't be in dumping mode otherwise.

kaldaniels
06-26-2010, 01:49 AM
If you can trade Harang, and free up money to bring in players that help now, then do it. The Reds shouldn't be in dumping mode otherwise.

I'd agree, but what contender is out there thinking, "Man I'd love to give up some players to take Aaron Harang and the salary that comes with him". I can only see the Reds netting 2-3 million at best...thats not gonna buy much.

Matt700wlw
06-26-2010, 02:01 AM
Then keep him. He can always be a bullpen arm option.

It's up to the Reds management to play the game and do what it takes to win. That costs money.

Matt700wlw
06-26-2010, 02:02 AM
Oh, yeah...the Reds are a contender

VR
06-26-2010, 02:12 AM
I've been concerned w/ Aaron's poor peripherals most of the year. His velocity isn't what it used to be....and he's striking out fewer while throwing more pitches.
I'm not sure that I've seen too many swings at pitches outside of the zone against Aaron this year. The league has caught on to him....and he certainly lacks any desire to throw inside to protect his plate.

As a 4th or 5th starter.....he's top notch though. If the team goes to the playoffs, I'd like to see him be with the team....as he was the horse for many very very lousy Reds teams.

TheNext44
06-26-2010, 02:43 AM
I cannot imagine any scenario where they would trade Harang and pay his salary and get a SS of the future, as Fay suggests. Sure, they could get a player worse than Cozart...but is that a SS of the future?

I agree with you. I was just stating what i thought the situation was with Harang. They could get a player back if they paid all money owed to him, but the player probably wouldn't be much of a help.

steig
06-26-2010, 08:43 AM
I think one of the few differences between Harang and Mike Leake is the HR/9 rate and $$$. I think Harang is one of the Reds 3 best pitchers. I don't know if that's a good or bad thing.

I would be all for trading Fay though!

:cool:

What about the ground ball to fly ball difference between the two. Leake has a 2.25 ground: fly ration where Harang is at 1.1. This is huge at GABP, Leake is the exact type of pitcher the Reds need. In fact Harang has the lowest Ground: fly ratio of the Reds starting pitchers

nate
06-26-2010, 09:27 AM
What about the ground ball to fly ball difference between the two. Leake has a 2.25 ground: fly ration where Harang is at 1.1. This is huge at GABP, Leake is the exact type of pitcher the Reds need. In fact Harang has the lowest Ground: fly ratio of the Reds starting pitchers

That would be one of the things that's a difference between them along with Harang's HR-rate (and depending on which camp you're in, they could kind of be the same thing.) BAA against is also different although some of the difference is probably explained by the HR-rate.

Even with all that, I think they're very similar in terms of the ERA they're likely to produce over a season.

Sea Ray
06-26-2010, 09:47 AM
I think Harang would be a very effective pitcher in a park like LA Dodgers, SD, Seattle or Detroit. He's in a park that's horrible for his skills.

TheNext44
06-26-2010, 11:35 AM
That would be one of the things that's a difference between them along with Harang's HR-rate (and depending on which camp you're in, they could kind of be the same thing.) BAA against is also different although some of the difference is probably explained by the HR-rate.

Even with all that, I think they're very similar in terms of the ERA they're likely to produce over a season.

We've argued this before, but I believer Leake and Harang are perfect examples of the flaw in Fip. There is more to pitching than K/BB and HR.

Hits matter too, especially XBH, and certain pitchers like Leake and Arroyo, who have lots of movement, can suppress them better than most pitchers.

Fip doesn't work well with Knuckleballers for this very reason. Leake and Arroyo pitch very similarly to Knuckleballers. They succeed by keeping the batter off balance and not allowing them to square up on the ball.

I'd be willing to bet that Leake has a much lower ERA over the next three years than Harang, because of this.

RedsManRick
06-26-2010, 12:43 PM
I'm not sure why we're acting like Harang is in decline. The reality is he's basically the same pitcher he's been the last few years; one who is notably worse than the 2005-2007 leader of the staff (he was a #1 starter, but not an ace). Let's take a look at the data to see what's going on.

(All this data is available for free on Fangraphs and I would recommend people head over there to take a look before making assertions about pitch velocity, movement, contact rates, etc. The best information we have available to us is there.)



K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP FIP xFIP ERA
2007 8.5 2.0 1.1 .298 3.71 3.75 3.73
2008 7.5 2.4 1.7 .317 4.79 4.18 4.78
2009 7.9 2.4 1.3 .339 4.14 3.95 4.21
2010 6.7 2.6 1.3 .330 4.58 4.36 5.07
- K/9 is down significantly this year.
- FIP is in between 08 and 09
- ERA is .49 runs higher than his FIP



GB/FB LD% GB% FB% HR/FB LOB%
2007 0.96 17.9 40.3 41.8 10.2 74.0
2008 0.77 21.9 34.1 44.1 13.9 73.6
2009 0.84 23.7 34.9 41.4 11.7 75.6
2010 1.01 22.8 38.8 38.4 11.9 70.0
- All the batted ball types are pretty much in line, save for a slight increase in GB/FB
- LOB% is down, probably in part due to his lessened K/9, but this is also a stat with a fair bit of natural variability and could also be in part due to unlucky timing



O-Sw% Z-SW% O-Con Z-Con Zone% SwStr%
2007 26.5 70.6 54.6 86.6 55.5 10.4
2008 26.0 65.9 64.8 87.5 54.5 8.5
2009 26.2 68.6 64.2 88.1 52.1 8.4
2010 30.8 65.0 68.5 88.4 43.9 8.3
- He's actually getting more swings out of the zone and fewer in zone as he ever has
- Contact on balls out of the zone is up from 08 and 09 and WAY up from 07
- The rate at which players are watching pitches in the zone is WAY down (not a good sign)
- Swinging strike rate is basically unchanged 08-10, though down from 07

PitchFx data follows: take with a grain of salt as the classification system has been continually tweaked


Pitch Frequency (Fastball, Slider, Change, Curve, 2-Seam FB)
FA% SL% CH% CU% FT%
2007 64.0 25.7 6.3 3.7 0.0
2008 66.3 20.8 6.9 5.4 0.0
2009 60.7 20.3 10.8 5.1 2.0
2010 47.2 21.1 8.3 6.1 17.2
- Decrease in sliders from 07 to 08-10
- He's started using a 2-seamer for about 1/4 of his fastballs



Pitch Velocity
FA-Vel SL-Vel CH-Vel CU-Vel FT-Vel
2007 90.3 82.8 83.1 73.9
2008 89.4 81.6 82.4 76.8
2009 90.7 81.1 83.3 74.8 89.6
2010 90.7 82.3 82.0 76.2 90.3
- Velocity is not down; if anything it's up



PitchFx Horizontal Movement
FA-X SL-X CH-X CU-X FT-X
2007 -4.1 2.7 -3.0 3.8
2008 -4.1 3.3 -5.8 4.9
2009 -5.3 2.6 -4.9 2.6 -9.1
2010 -4.0 2.0 -4.2 2.8 -7.9

- A bit of a drop in horizontal movement across the board
- Slider shows the biggest decrease, something we've all noticed



PitchFx Vertical Movement
FA-Z SL-Z CH-Z CU-Z FT-Z
2007 11.4 3.7 8.0 -0.9
2008 10.7 2.4 7.9 -1.2
2009 10.8 2.1 6.9 -2.6 6.7
2010 10.5 2.6 7.0 -2.5 8.9
- Not much going on here. Some drop after 2007, but holding steady since.

IN SUMMARY:
At the simplest level, Harang dropped a level of effectiveness from 2007 to 2008 (I wonder why.......) and has pretty much stayed at that new level. So far in 2010, his strikeout rate is noticeably down and he has lost some movement on his slider. But even then, his ERA is a bit higher than in should be, perhaps resulting from a Reds defense that regressed back from last year's stellar effort. Moving forward, we should expect more of the same -- pure mediocrity. He most definitely belongs in the rotation; we just should just recognize him for what he is -- a mid-rotation innings eater.

nate
06-26-2010, 12:48 PM
We've argued this before, but I believer Leake and Harang are perfect examples of the flaw in Fip. There is more to pitching than K/BB and HR.

I didn't mention FIP. I was looking at K, BB, HR rates and hit type individually (don't look at those if you're a Homer Bailey fan, BTW...it's not good.) I also said the difference between them is that Harang is better at the former but poorer at the latter...at least so far this year.

My point was I think it's likely that Leake and Harang end up with similar ERA this year. So if we're pointing out flaws in stats, that's the one with the flaw.


Hits matter too, especially XBH, and certain pitchers like Leake and Arroyo, who have lots of movement, can suppress them better than most pitchers.

Fip doesn't work well with Knuckleballers for this very reason. Leake and Arroyo pitch very similarly to Knuckleballers. They succeed by keeping the batter off balance and not allowing them to square up on the ball.

I'd be willing to bet that Leake has a much lower ERA over the next three years than Harang, because of this.

Great!

I'm talking about this year.

nate
06-26-2010, 12:51 PM
IN SUMMARY:
At the simplest level, Harang dropped a level of effectiveness from 2007 to 2008 (I wonder why.......) and has pretty much stayed at that new level. So far in 2010, his strikeout rate is noticeably down and he has lost some movement on his slider. But even then, his ERA is a bit higher than in should be, perhaps resulting from a Reds defense that regressed back from last year's stellar effort. Moving forward, we should expect more of the same -- pure mediocrity. He most definitely belongs in the rotation; we just should just recognize him for what he is -- a mid-rotation innings eater.

Right. This is what I'm saying when he's one of the three best starters this year.

What the Reds should do is acquire pitching that would make him the 5th best starter.

OnBaseMachine
06-26-2010, 12:56 PM
I've always liked Harang and have always defended him but I think the time has come to explore trading him or maybe moving him to the bullpen. I don't feel comfortable at all when he's on the mound this season. His stuff has really deteriorated this season. The only pitch he can locate for strikes is his fastball, and it isn't exactly an overpowering pitch. It's a shame, for about a three year stretch Harang was arguably the most underrated pitcher in baseball. Now he's pretty much just a back end starter. He's not the worst guy to have around but if the Reds plan on making the playoffs then they need to acquire a top-of-rotation starter and maybe move Harang to the pen where possibly his stuff would play up a little better.

I think Harang would benefit greatly if he pitched in a big ballpark. If I were him I would sign with the hometown Padres in the offseason, or the Mariners or Dodgers. A lot of those cheap home runs he allows in GABP would be routine flyouts in most west coast ballparks.

OnBaseMachine
06-26-2010, 12:57 PM
From John Fay:


All three runs Harang allowed Friday scored on home runs. Thatís pretty typical.

Twenty-one of the 56 runs heís allowed have come via the home run. Of the 36 runs heís allowed at GAPB, 17 have scored via home runs. Of the 20 runs heís allowed on the road, four have scored on home runs.

Sounds like a guy who could benefit from a change in venue. My guess is if the Reds are inclined to trade him, there will be a market.


http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/06/25/interesting-numbers-on-harang/?GID=OqwE7FIf1e6KSQ5cZM7dR9F0hsM7PnghaA7WC+fddIg%3 D

Benihana
06-26-2010, 01:00 PM
From John Fay:



http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/06/25/interesting-numbers-on-harang/?GID=OqwE7FIf1e6KSQ5cZM7dR9F0hsM7PnghaA7WC+fddIg%3 D

It's almost like Fay has an agenda- weird.

RedsManRick
06-26-2010, 01:02 PM
We've argued this before, but I believer Leake and Harang are perfect examples of the flaw in Fip. There is more to pitching than K/BB and HR.

Hits matter too, especially XBH, and certain pitchers like Leake and Arroyo, who have lots of movement, can suppress them better than most pitchers.

There's a common misperception about the logic behind FIP. It's not that hits don't matter. Nor is it that pitchers can't affect how hard they're hit. Rather, it's that the ability to affect how hard you're hit shows up in your HR, K, and BB rates. If you can prevent guys from squaring up the ball and hitting doubles, you are also preventing HRs and getting a fair amount of Ks when guys swing and miss. It all comes from the same underlying ability of the pitcher to fool the hitter.

And because hit rates are also significantly affected by defense, looking at the hits can actually make it harder to judge how well a guy has actually pitched. The easy check on this is that FIP is a better predictor of ERA than is ERA itself. Obviously we should take FIP with a grain of salt, but it's hard to make an argument that ERA is a better indicator of how well a guy has pitched. ERA is a team stat.


Fip doesn't work well with Knuckleballers for this very reason. Leake and Arroyo pitch very similarly to Knuckleballers. They succeed by keeping the batter off balance and not allowing them to square up on the ball. I'd be willing to bet that Leake has a much lower ERA over the next three years than Harang, because of this.

What you've described is true for virtually every pitcher. Very few pitchers succeed by simply blowing hitters away with velocity. It's usually about keeping the guy off balance and not squaring up pitches through movement, location, and sequence. I agree that Leake will have an ERA lower than Harang. I also bet he'll have a lower FIP. Both will result from his having better stuff which induces grounders and keeps the ball in the yard.

To reiterate, it's not that FIP is based on a belief that hits don't matter and/or are not affected by the pitcher. Rather, it's that the same underlying skills which drive a pitchers ability to affect hits are those which drive BB, K, and HR rates -- but those things aren't also affected by the defense. It's highly unlikely you'll find a pitcher who regularly induces poor contact but doesn't have good BB, K and/or HR rates.

VR
06-26-2010, 01:12 PM
My eyes are telling me one thing....but the stats are telling me they are actually much much worse than I am seeing. He's riding a slippery slope right now, but he's certainly doing a good job of eating innings and keeping the team in ballgames, which is more than 95% of back of the rotation starters in the game.

TheNext44
06-27-2010, 04:05 AM
There's a common misperception about the logic behind FIP. It's not that hits don't matter. Nor is it that pitchers can't affect how hard they're hit. Rather, it's that the ability to affect how hard you're hit shows up in your HR, K, and BB rates. If you can prevent guys from squaring up the ball and hitting doubles, you are also preventing HRs and getting a fair amount of Ks when guys swing and miss. It all comes from the same underlying ability of the pitcher to fool the hitter.



You've made this argument before, and I still disagree with it.

Let me get a few points across about my argument first, because I am not making the same one that many who have a problem with FIP make.

I like FIP more than ERA, by a lot, but I still think it needs improvement.

It makes sense to isolate K/BB and HR's, because those are things that a pitcher has the most control over.

However, I do not agree at all with your assertion that a pitcher's ability to suppress hits and XBH are included in his K/BB and HR/9 rates. Maybe to some extent, but definitely not enough to exclude hits and XBH from a stat that measures a pitcher's effectiveness.

This is the statement that I disagree with the most:

If you can prevent guys from squaring up the ball and hitting doubles, you are also preventing HRs and getting a fair amount of Ks when guys swing and miss. It all comes from the same underlying ability of the pitcher to fool the hitter.

When a hitter hits a homerun, he usually is using a different swing than when he gets any other type of hit. Nearly all homers are hit off of meatballs, really big mistake pitches. Every hitter has a batting practice swing, one in which they just let it rip. A meatball is a pitch that lets the hitter use his batting practice swing. They give the hitter time to rear back and give it his best batting practice swing. This is how even guys like Taveras and Castro can hit homers. These pitches are belt high or higher and in the middle of plate, and most importantly, they have either very little movement, or very predictable movement, i.e hanging breaking pitches.

On all other hits, the batter is just trying to hit it hard. The pitch is not in his wheelhouse, or is moving, or coming in a different speed, so the batter canít just let it rip, he has to adjust his swing and just try to hit it as hard as he can. These are most of the swings that a batter makes.

This is why a pitcher has more control over how many homers he gives up than how many hits. The less meatballs you throw, the less homers you will give up. Period.

But a pitcher can not throw any meatballs, and still get hit hard. And the reverse, he can throw a lot of meatballs, but look unhittable the rest of the time. It simply is not true that if a pitcher can prevent a hitter from hitting doubles and singles, he is also preventing home runs. The two are not related most of the time.

As for Kís and making guys swing and miss, it also is not the case that making guys swing and miss and preventing hits are related.

Most pitchers donít get outs by not allowing the hitter to square up on the ball, that is not the key to most guyís success. The key is to strike out a lot of guys, and therefore put less balls into play, and therefore give up less hits. I think we agree that most pitchers canít control their BABIP, so by simple math, a pitcher can succeed best by limiting the number of balls put into play, he doesnít need to prevent them from squaring up on the ball. That will happen enough times naturally, and when the hitters does square up, the defense will be there to prevent hits enough times.

So if a guy Kís a lot of hitters, he will give up less hits due to simple math. But the opposite is not true. Just because a pitcher does not make a hitter swing and miss, it does not mean that the pitcher canít surpress hits.

As I have said, pitchers with lots of movement on their pitches, can get hitters to ďjust missĒ on pitches, and ground out or fly out, instead of hitting line drives. This is why knuckleball pitchers have much lower BABIP than other pitchers. Guys just donít get good swings off of them. This is true for guys like Maddux, Leake, Arroyo, Danny Graves, Paul Byrd, Trevor Hoffman, and others with great off-speed pitches. They have have lower BABIP than most pitchers because hitters canít square up on the ball. This is due to the same theory that explains knuckleball pitchers. They need this, since they are not striking out as many hitters, so their key is to prevent the hitter not from making contact, but from making solid contact.

I think that it is this group of pitchers that FIP misses, and why it needs to include hits and XBH somehow in itís equation. Otherwise, guys who donít miss a lot of bats, but instead get a lot of ďmiss hitsĒ, will be unfairly penalized with FIP.

Guacarock
06-27-2010, 04:28 AM
Tool.

PuffyPig
06-27-2010, 09:04 AM
I've been concerned w/ Aaron's poor peripherals most of the year.

For most of the years his peripherals were in line with his career.

Recently, while his results have been better, his peripherals have been quite poor.

To me that is the concern.

PuffyPig
06-27-2010, 09:08 AM
Nearly all homers are hit off of meatballs, really big mistake pitches.

I don't think that is close to the truth. You need to credit the batter here too. The best HR hitters frequently hit HR's on pitches that are far from meatballs.

PuffyPig
06-27-2010, 09:16 AM
As I have said, pitchers with lots of movement on their pitches, can get hitters to ďjust missĒ on pitches, and ground out or fly out, instead of hitting line drives. This is why knuckleball pitchers have much lower BABIP than other pitchers. Guys just donít get good swings off of them. This is true for guys like Maddux, Leake, Arroyo, Danny Graves, Paul Byrd, Trevor Hoffman, and others with great off-speed pitches. They have have lower BABIP than most pitchers because hitters canít square up on the ball. This is due to the same theory that explains knuckleball pitchers. They need this, since they are not striking out as many hitters, so their key is to prevent the hitter not from making contact, but from making solid contact.



If this was true, wouldn't thoise pitchers have lower BABIP's than other pitchers like you say?

In fact, they don't.

Graves .291
Maddux .289
Arroyo .294
Leake .300
Byrd .294

are all well within the normal range of BABIP distribution.

Even guys like Wainwright with one of the majors best curveballs and a (generally) great defense behind him is at .298.

I'll stand by me belief that to the extent that pitchers can control BABIP, it is marginal at best.

TheNext44
06-27-2010, 09:33 AM
I don't think that is close to the truth. You need to credit the batter here too. The best HR hitters frequently hit HR's on pitches that are far from meatballs.

How many great home run hitters are there that can do this? Seriously? Maybe a dozen in the majors, and they probably do that on around 10% of their home runs. Well over 90% of all homers were hit off of bad pitches.

TheNext44
06-27-2010, 10:01 AM
If this was true, wouldn't thoise pitchers have lower BABIP's than other pitchers like you say?
In fact, they don't.
Graves .291
Maddux .289
Arroyo .294
Leake .300
Byrd .294
are all well within the normal range of BABIP distribution.

Even guys like Wainwright with one of the majors best curveballs and a (generally) great defense behind him is at .298.

I'll stand by me belief that to the extent that pitchers can control BABIP, it is marginal at best.

But they are all on the low side of the range. And those were just a few guys off the top of my head. If you look at the stat more closely, you will find the pitchers with little movement normally are in the .310-.315 range and the guys with lots of movement are in the .295-.300 range.
(You conveniently left out Hoffman, who is at .266, but let's just call him ann outlier).
And one thing that BABIP leaves out is SLG. There is no data on it, but intuitively, it makes sense that guys with little movement, but who throw hard, will be giving up more doubles and triples among their hits than guys like Bronson and Leake.


The key issue here is that guys with a lot of movement consistently have ERA's that are around a half a run lower than their FIP. I'm looking for a way to correct that. And I agree that pitchers that don't have a lot of movement on their pitches usually don't have much control over their BABIP, but there are enough that have movement that do, that it should be addressed.

RedsManRick
06-27-2010, 12:10 PM
Next 44, where did you get 90% figure from. I think it's a very interesting premise, that homers come against a significantly different set of pitches than do other extra base hits, but I'm not sure where to find that data.

Similarly on the babip by movement grouping.of pitchers. It's an interesting observation and I'd love to see the data.

My basic premise is not that FIP is the best measure of pitcher skill, just better than ERA. What it loses in not having batted ball data it makes up for in being defense neutral and removing the "random" grouping of events which leads to runs in individual circumstances but which is not necessarily indicative of a skill. BP has a stat called SIERRA which uses batted ball data too and would be better to use than FIP if it were free.

In any event, I'd like to learn more about the systemic biases in FIP.

PuffyPig
06-27-2010, 12:18 PM
But they are all on the low side of the range. And those were just a few guys off the top of my head. If you look at the stat more closely, you will find the pitchers with little movement normally are in the .310-.315 range and the guys with lots of movement are in the .295-.300 range.



You are talking about a 3% difference which could be easily due to randomness or defense, ballpark etc.

And do you have data to back it up.

Josh Fogg is at .299 too.

VR
06-27-2010, 12:40 PM
For most of the years his peripherals were in line with his career.

Recently, while his results have been better, his peripherals have been quite poor.

To me that is the concern.

For at least his last couple games his fastballs are mostly 89-90....topping out at 91. Early in the year (and previous years) ......it was 92-93 and topping out at 94.

He's just able to get that past hitters like previously. I don't know if it's a dead arm period, naggin injury, fatigue......but he's got to get that velocity back to keep hitters off guard as he has in past years.