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View Full Version : Bray activated, LeCure optioned to AAA



guttle11
06-27-2010, 11:03 AM
Per the Reds Twitter account.


Reds recall LHP Bill Bray, optioned RHP Sam LeCure to Louisville.


http://twitter.com/CincinnatiReds (http://twitter.com/CincinnatiReds)

Homer Bailey
06-27-2010, 11:08 AM
Literally just texted my friend "sounds like bray is ready." He was called up 5 minutes later.

I've never been a big bray fan but he seems to be the best option right now.

OnBaseMachine
06-27-2010, 11:18 AM
Smart move to get Bray up before the Phillies series. With Howard/Utley coming to town, it makes sense to add another lefty to the bullpen. Nice job by Walt.

Reds Freak
06-27-2010, 11:19 AM
Will Travis Wood be given a shot in Lecure's spot in the rotation or will Volquez be ready for Lecure's next start?

VR
06-27-2010, 11:20 AM
This is great news. Bray will provide another quality major league arm to the pen....and hopefully help 'protect' Rhodes from having to be used in every high leverage 7th or 8th inning.

Good for LeCure.....he battled hard up here and gave the club some much needed starts (most against opponents #1's and #2's) instead of rushing Wood, Chapman or Maloney.

JaxRed
06-27-2010, 11:21 AM
You would think it means Wood.

_Sir_Charles_
06-27-2010, 11:24 AM
Could be Wood, or they could re-arrange the rotation a bit to skip the next LeCure slot until Edinson's ready.

Reds Freak
06-27-2010, 11:35 AM
Could be Wood, or they could re-arrange the rotation a bit to skip the next LeCure slot until Edinson's ready.

Seeing as how the Reds are trying to skip Leake's spot as much as possible, I don't see them skipping Lecure's spot too. I've got to believe they will go with either Wood or Maloney instead...

_Sir_Charles_
06-27-2010, 11:46 AM
I just saw they don't have a day off until the ASB, yeah they won't skip it.

Joseph
06-27-2010, 11:52 AM
Welcome back Billy. Time to become the best player in 'the Trade'.

Tom Servo
06-27-2010, 12:11 PM
:bray::bray::bray:

BuckeyeRedleg
06-27-2010, 01:39 PM
I'm excited to have Bray back.

16 K's and only 3 BB's in 10 IP, down on the farm.

Hopefully he has his command issues worked out. I think he'll be a big help for this bullpen.

nemesis
06-27-2010, 01:53 PM
Having Bray in the Bullpen makes me feel a little more optimistic about the Phillies series. 6 out of the next 14 games against them and having Rhodes as the only legit LHP spelled doom. Congrats to him for working hard for the last 14+ months to get back.

Razor Shines
06-27-2010, 02:09 PM
I'm really glad Bray is back. I've always thought he should have been better than he's been. Maybe :pray: he's got things figured out now.

hebroncougar
06-27-2010, 02:13 PM
Next move up.........Herrera down, Wood coming up is my hope/guess.

11larkin11
06-27-2010, 02:15 PM
I would keep Herrera for now, and send Smith down, just because of the Phillies.

Also hopes to have the lefty Wood up for (hopefully) two starts vs. PHI

VR
06-27-2010, 03:02 PM
Owings "might" be an option to start as well the next time that slot comes up.

Big Klu
06-27-2010, 11:22 PM
Owings "might" be an option to start as well the next time that slot comes up.

That's a possibility, but Micah isn't exactly stretched out for a start. I think it's more likely that a lefty (either Maloney or Woods) will be brought up. In that case, a reliever almost assuredly will be farmed out. So let's take a look as to who it might be:

1-2) Cordero and Rhodes are 100% safe. They aren't going anywhere.

3) Masset is starting to come around. He's been pitching better lately. He won't be sent down.

4) Owings fills a unique niche--he's a long reliever who can pitch multiple innings. He's also been pitching decently all season, and his bat is an added asset. He stays.

5) Bray just got called up, so he isn't going back down.

So that leaves Smith, Herrera, and Ondrusek. It seemed like Dusty was giving Smith, Herrera, and Ondrusek each a one-inning audition today. If that's the case, then Herrera likely drew the short straw (no pun intended). However, with the lefty-heavy Phillies looming large on the horizon, DRH may make the cut, in which case it might be Smith. (I think Ondrusek is pitching the best of all three, and is likely to stick around.) If Smith is sent down, I wouldn't be surprised to see him called back up for Herrera right after the All-Star Break.

fearofpopvol1
06-28-2010, 12:06 AM
That's a possibility, but Micah isn't exactly stretched out for a start. I think it's more likely that a lefty (either Maloney or Woods) will be brought up. In that case, a reliever almost assuredly will be farmed out. So let's take a look as to who it might be:

1-2) Cordero and Rhodes are 100% safe. They aren't going anywhere.

3) Masset is starting to come around. He's been pitching better lately. He won't be sent down.

4) Owings fills a unique niche--he's a long reliever who can pitch multiple innings. He's also been pitching decently all season, and his bat is an added asset. He stays.

5) Bray just got called up, so he isn't going back down.

So that leaves Smith, Herrera, and Ondrusek. It seemed like Dusty was giving Smith, Herrera, and Ondrusek each a one-inning audition today. If that's the case, then Herrera likely drew the short straw (no pun intended). However, with the lefty-heavy Phillies looming large on the horizon, DRH may make the cut, in which case it might be Smith. (I think Ondrusek is pitching the best of all three, and is likely to stick around.) If Smith is sent down, I wouldn't be surprised to see him called back up for Herrera right after the All-Star Break.

I actually like Smith better than Ondrusek and Herrera, but I am thinking he's likely to be the one sent down.

alloverjr
06-28-2010, 12:21 AM
However, with the lefty-heavy Phillies looming large on the horizon, DRH may make the cut, in which case it might be Smith. (I think Ondrusek is pitching the best of all three, and is likely to stick around.) If Smith is sent down, I wouldn't be surprised to see him called back up for Herrera right after the All-Star Break.

Lefties (and righties) are hitting over .330 against Herrera according to the telecast. I hardly see him as a lefty specialist and I hope the front office sees the same.

Big Klu
06-28-2010, 01:03 AM
I actually like Smith better than Ondrusek and Herrera, but I am thinking he's likely to be the one sent down.

I like Smith, too, but I also like what I have seen from Ondrusek lately.


Lefties (and righties) are hitting over .330 against Herrera according to the telecast. I hardly see him as a lefty specialist and I hope the front office sees the same.

I agree. Herrera would be the one I would send down, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Reds keep him around for the Philly series because he's a lefty. But even if that happens, I think that Smith will be back up after the All-Star Break.

bucksfan2
06-28-2010, 10:03 AM
Lefties (and righties) are hitting over .330 against Herrera according to the telecast. I hardly see him as a lefty specialist and I hope the front office sees the same.

Everyone is hitting Herrera hard. Chalk up another run and another HR yesterday. If he doesn't go down I will be shocked. Why send down someone who is performing and keep around someone who is getting beaten like a drum?

REDREAD
06-28-2010, 10:35 AM
Lefties (and righties) are hitting over .330 against Herrera according to the telecast. I hardly see him as a lefty specialist and I hope the front office sees the same.

Yep, the wheels have fallen off on Herrara. The league has figured out his assortment of super slow pitches. Time to get rid of him.

mth123
06-28-2010, 10:56 AM
Yep, the wheels have fallen off on Herrara. The league has figured out his assortment of super slow pitches. Time to get rid of him.

Past time.

redsmetz
06-28-2010, 11:05 AM
With regards to Herrara, in yesterday's game thread I wrote:

I've come to the conclusion that if DR Herrara can't get called strikes, he will always be in trouble because he only had one swinging strike that I recall. And he didn't miss by much on some pitches, which is why I think the zone was a moving one.

Herrara will always get smacked around if he's not getting calls on the edge. That's not to infer that they may not be balls, but he needs to get the close call or he's toast. It's a dangerous proposition, but given what he throws, that's the only thing he has going for him. When he has to come back over the plate, he's in trouble.

OnBaseMachine
06-28-2010, 12:24 PM
I think we'll see Travis Wood make that start in Chicago in Thursday. I would ship Herrera to AAA to make room for Wood or whoever gets the call to make the start. As others have said, I think the league has figured out Herrera. You can almost see the hitters eyes light up when they see that slow stuff coming.

membengal
06-28-2010, 12:36 PM
For what it's worth, and I know people will immediately disagree, but I would like to see Wood called up to start Wednesday against Philly. Wood's last start was Friday, Wednesday would be on schedule for him.

And, yes, Philly is a harder line-up than Chicago. In theory and in reality. But Philly has all those lefties and I would rather see Wood take a crack at them than Harang, all things considered. Harang against the Phillies in GABP feels like HR batting practice coming. Give Harang the extra day of rest and let him pitch against the more right heavy Cubs line-up.

My two cents.

OnBaseMachine
06-28-2010, 12:39 PM
For what it's worth, and I know people will immediately disagree, but I would like to see Wood called up to start Wednesday against Philly. Wood's last start was Friday, Wednesday would be on schedule for him.

And, yes, Philly is a harder line-up than Chicago. In theory and in reality. But Philly has all those lefties and I would rather see Wood take a crack at them than Harang, all things considered. Harang against the Phillies in GABP feels like HR batting practice coming. Give Harang the extra day of rest and let him pitch against the more right heavy Cubs line-up.

My two cents.

I agree with you. The Cubs hit LHP better too. I'm not looking forward to the Harang vs Philly matchup. This may sound foolish considering Wood has never pitched in the big leagues, but I think Travis Wood gives the Reds a better chance to win that game Wednesday vs the Phillies.

FWIW, the Cubs have a .798 OPS vs LHP and .693 OPS vs RHP.

SMcGavin
06-28-2010, 12:42 PM
Herrera deserves some criticism. He's struggled. But - multiple people are now voicing their preference to dump the guy with a 3.66 career major league ERA, in favor of a guy who has a 5.08 ERA and 4.4 K/9 in AA this season? Let's take a step back.

SMcGavin
06-28-2010, 12:44 PM
By the way, I have always liked Bill Bray. When he's healthy, he usually performs. Looking forward to seeing him back up here.

mth123
06-28-2010, 12:45 PM
For what it's worth, and I know people will immediately disagree, but I would like to see Wood called up to start Wednesday against Philly. Wood's last start was Friday, Wednesday would be on schedule for him.

And, yes, Philly is a harder line-up than Chicago. In theory and in reality. But Philly has all those lefties and I would rather see Wood take a crack at them than Harang, all things considered. Harang against the Phillies in GABP feels like HR batting practice coming. Give Harang the extra day of rest and let him pitch against the more right heavy Cubs line-up.

My two cents.

I agree that this might be a good plan. The combo of Harang, the Philly line-up and GABP doesn't sound like a good plan for the Reds.

membengal
06-28-2010, 12:45 PM
Herrera deserves some criticism. He's struggled. But - multiple people are now voicing their preference to dump the guy with a 3.66 career major league ERA, in favor of a guy who has a 5.08 ERA and 4.4 K/9 in AA this season? Let's take a step back.

Are you talking about Smith?

This was his first year converting from starter to reliever. I am inclined to cut him some slack. His track record has been pretty successful, and his repetroire in terms of a good hard sinker and getting ground balls is rather intruiging for a reliever in GABP.

bucksfan2
06-28-2010, 12:47 PM
Herrera deserves some criticism. He's struggled. But - multiple people are now voicing their preference to dump the guy with a 3.66 career major league ERA, in favor of a guy who has a 5.08 ERA and 4.4 K/9 in AA this season? Let's take a step back.

Many people felt that when the league figured Herrera out he would struggle. Right now he has a 4+ ERA but both right handers and left handers are hitting over .324. His OPS+ for both is over 120. Hitters basically are preforming like all stars when Herrera steps onto the mound.

SMcGavin
06-28-2010, 12:49 PM
Are you talking about Smith?

This was his first year converting from starter to reliever. I am inclined to cut him some slack. His track record has been pretty successful, and his repetroire in terms of a good hard sinker and getting ground balls is rather intruiging for a reliever in GABP.

I am. Smith also failed to crack 5 K/9 last season as a starter in AA, so this is not a new problem.

membengal
06-28-2010, 12:52 PM
That doesn't change the fact that he is likely to induce ground balls, something I like out of guys in GABP.

mth123
06-28-2010, 12:53 PM
Herrera deserves some criticism. He's struggled. But - multiple people are now voicing their preference to dump the guy with a 3.66 career major league ERA, in favor of a guy who has a 5.08 ERA and 4.4 K/9 in AA this season? Let's take a step back.

I get what you are saying, but Herrera got those numbers with a trick pitch that took the league by surprise. It works for a while, but it has a short shelf life and those numbers don't seem to be any kind of indication of what we should expect going forward. Watching these guys pitch over last month or so and its clear that Herrera seems the least likely to get people out consistently.

His novelty may work in the AL for the rest of the year where they haven't seen him much. The Reds should market him like that and deal him to an AL team looking for help in the pen.

SMcGavin
06-28-2010, 12:57 PM
That doesn't change the fact that he is likely to induce ground balls, something I like out of guys in GABP.

That is true, however if you like Smith because of this then you should love DRH.

Smith's last two seasons in the minors: 51% GB, and 55% GB.
Herrera's last two seasons in the minors: 58% GB, and 54% GB.

mth123
06-28-2010, 01:00 PM
BTW, Bray is here and Chapman is on the way. Its likely that both Herrera and Smith will go down. Smith along with Burton, Fisher, Del Rosario and two of Wood, Maloney and Lecure and possibly Valiquette, Lincoln and Bailey give the Reds enough 12th man on the staff depth to part ways with DRH. I wouldn't cut him though. I'd hope the Reds can parlay those numbers into a deal for something.

SMcGavin
06-28-2010, 01:00 PM
I get what you are saying, but Herrera got those numbers with a trick pitch that took the league by surprise. It works for a while, but it has a short shelf life and those numbers don't seem to be any kind of indication of what we should expect going forward. Watching these guys pitch over last month or so and its clear that Herrera seems the least likely to get people out consistently.

His novelty may work in the AL for the rest of the year where they haven't seen him much. The Reds should market him like that and deal him to an AL team looking for help in the pen.

The "getting figured out" makes a good narrative, and I can't guarantee that hasn't happened (or won't happen going forward). But over the last month that you mention, DRH has pitched 7.1 innings. Random variance is a much more likely explanation especially considering peripherals (3.77 FIP).

I don't mean to paint DRH as the second coming, but would I rather have him in the bullpen over Jordan Smith? Heck yeah.

Kc61
06-28-2010, 01:03 PM
That is true, however if you like Smith because of this then you should love DRH.

Smith's last two seasons in the minors: 51% GB, and 55% GB.
Herrera's last two seasons in the minors: 58% GB, and 54% GB.


Smith has always been a highly touted pitcher. BA has rated him high in some of its top thirty reports.

Smith had an injury plagued season in 2009 and was converted to relief this year. I don't think the minor league stats for either of those years means a great deal.

Over his minor league career, Smith had a 1.27 WHIP (mostly as a starter) and walked only 105 guys in 397.2 innings.

He has clear ground ball tendencies and gives up relatively few men on base.

I doubt that the Reds will send him down. Dusty seems to like having at least one ground ball pitcher in his bullpen and, right now, Smith is the guy.

I think the likely guy to be sent down is either Herrera or Ondrusek.

mth123
06-28-2010, 01:08 PM
The "getting figured out" makes a good narrative, and I can't guarantee that hasn't happened (or won't happen going forward). But over the last month that you mention, DRH has pitched 7.1 innings. Random variance is a much more likely explanation especially considering peripherals (3.77 FIP).

I don't mean to paint DRH as the second coming, but would I rather have him in the bullpen over Jordan Smith? Heck yeah.


Whether Smith or Herrera is the first to go when its pretty clear that there won't be much room for either doesn't bother me much. Smith seems to be a better bet to retire guys right now IMO.

membengal
06-28-2010, 01:14 PM
That is true, however if you like Smith because of this then you should love DRH.

Smith's last two seasons in the minors: 51% GB, and 55% GB.
Herrera's last two seasons in the minors: 58% GB, and 54% GB.

Except Herrera's stuff isn't conducive to turning those into outs. He's had his chance. On to the next one.

membengal
06-28-2010, 01:15 PM
Smith has always been a highly touted pitcher. BA has rated him high in some of its top thirty reports.

Smith had an injury plagued season in 2009 and was converted to relief this year. I don't think the minor league stats for either of those years means a great deal.

Over his minor league career, Smith had a 1.27 WHIP (mostly as a starter) and walked only 105 guys in 397.2 innings.

He has clear ground ball tendencies and gives up relatively few men on base.

I doubt that the Reds will send him down. Dusty seems to like having at least one ground ball pitcher in his bullpen and, right now, Smith is the guy.

I think the likely guy to be sent down is either Herrera or Ondrusek.

This.

fearofpopvol1
06-28-2010, 01:24 PM
Herrera deserves some criticism. He's struggled. But - multiple people are now voicing their preference to dump the guy with a 3.66 career major league ERA, in favor of a guy who has a 5.08 ERA and 4.4 K/9 in AA this season? Let's take a step back.

I agree. If I had my way, I would send down Ondrusek. But that's just me.

nemesis
06-28-2010, 01:28 PM
I agree that Wood give the team it's best shot at shutting down the Phillies on Weds but, to draw Roy Halladay in your first ML start... gesh. You know you'll get the Dusty Day special. Miller will catch cause he knows Wood's pitches, Cairo will start cause he had a seeing eye single against him when he was in Tampa, Nix will start in CF because Stubbs will be overmatched.

Cabrera
Cairo
Votto
Phillips
Bruce
Gomes
Nix
Miller
Wood

That being said... I really like the fact he is finally going to be here and hopefully will show something in the few starts he gets. Obviously he goes back down when Volquez comes back up.

OnBaseMachine
06-28-2010, 01:29 PM
I agree. If I had my way, I would send down Ondrusek. But that's just me.

Ondrusek has been one of the Reds best relievers in the month of June. His numbers this month: 9.2 IP, 9 H, 1 HR, 1 BB, 7 K, 1.86 ERA.

nemesis
06-28-2010, 01:33 PM
BTW, Herrera gets sent down IMO. Ondrusek is in a groove and Smith just has a swagger on the mound. Think he is feeling it up here and the defense behind him gives him the confidence to pound the zone.

BTW Wood against LH's:

37.0 IP 1 HR 3 BB (WOW) 42 K's .192 BA 0.76 WHIP

fearofpopvol1
06-28-2010, 01:35 PM
Ondrusek has been one of the Reds best relievers in the month of June. His numbers this month: 9.2 IP, 9 H, 1 HR, 1 BB, 7 K, 1.86 ERA.

Yeah, but looking at his season stats, the picture isn't nearly as rosie. The guy walks a lot of batters.

Caveat Emperor
06-28-2010, 01:36 PM
Yeah, but looking at his season stats, the picture isn't nearly as rosie. The guy walks a lot of batters.

He's also a rookie -- which buys him a little more slack than a guy with numbers to go on.

fearofpopvol1
06-28-2010, 01:39 PM
He's also a rookie -- which buys him a little more slack than a guy with numbers to go on.

The reverse can be assumed as well. One guy has proven he can put up good numbers at The Show over a sustained period of time. The other hasn't (yet).

I'm not rooting against Ondrusek, I hope he succeeds. I just happen to like Herrera better and believe he has proven more up until now.

bucksfan2
06-28-2010, 01:40 PM
The reverse can be assumed as well. One guy has proven he can put up good numbers at The Show over a sustained period of time. The other hasn't (yet).

I'm not rooting against Ondrusek, I hope he succeeds. I just happen to like Herrera better and believe he has proven more up until now.

What has Herrera really proven? He got by his first year on trickery and this year he is getting hit hard and not getting anybody out. It was a nice story but it seems as if reality has set in on Herrera.

Will M
06-28-2010, 01:58 PM
I would send DRH to AAA & call up Wood to replace Lecure. I certainly would not send guys who are pitching well (Smith & Ondrusek) to AAA & keep a guy like DRH who simply has not pitched well all year.

fearofpopvol1
06-28-2010, 02:05 PM
What has Herrera really proven? He got by his first year on trickery and this year he is getting hit hard and not getting anybody out. It was a nice story but it seems as if reality has set in on Herrera.

Again, the reverse could be asked. What has Ondrusek proven?

Herrera had a very solid 2009 at The Show where he was almost 0.5 WAR. He's not spectacular, but he's definitely been good. And he has proven much more than Ondrusek has.

For the record, over their entire minor/major league careers, DRH has posted a better K/9, average against, WHIP and a MUCH better FIP than Ondrusek has. The BB/9 is almost dead even for both pitchers.

Simply put, Herrera has been the better pitcher and until Ondrusek proves otherwise, he's not.

mth123
06-28-2010, 02:14 PM
Again, the reverse could be asked. What has Ondrusek proven?

Herrera had a very solid 2009 at The Show where he was almost 0.5 WAR. He's not spectacular, but he's definitely been good. And he has proven much more than Ondrusek has.

For the record, over their entire minor/major league careers, DRH has posted a better K/9, average against, WHIP and a MUCH better FIP than Ondrusek has. The BB/9 is almost dead even for both pitchers.

Simply put, Herrera has been the better pitcher and until Ondrusek proves otherwise, he's not.

Its about what they are likely to do from here on out. Herrera's good numbers are ancient history IMO. Ondrusek has pitched very well of late and should stay up until he stops pitching well. Right now DRH is the most likley to get rocked on the mound.

SMcGavin
06-28-2010, 02:28 PM
Its about what they are likely to do from here on out. Herrera's good numbers are ancient history IMO.

You are certainly entitled to your opinion. But the only evidence to support it is poor results from Danny's last 10-12 innings. Through mid-May DRH had pitched 10.1 IP, with 1.74 ERA and .636 OPS against. If I had used that as evidence that he had turned the corner from solid reliever to elite one, I doubt you'd have bought that. Similarly, I'm not buying that he's cooked because he's had a poor ten inning stretch.

reds44
06-28-2010, 02:48 PM
Herrera's days are numbered one way or another. If he doesn't go down when we need to call up another starter, he'll certainly go down when Chapman is called up. I can't see us carrying 4 lefties (Chapman, Bray, Herrera, Rhodes) in the same pen.

No way I send Smith down either, he's done nothing to deserve to be demoted.

mth123
06-28-2010, 02:56 PM
You are certainly entitled to your opinion. But the only evidence to support it is poor results from Danny's last 10-12 innings. Through mid-May DRH had pitched 10.1 IP, with 1.74 ERA and .636 OPS against. If I had used that as evidence that he had turned the corner from solid reliever to elite one, I doubt you'd have bought that. Similarly, I'm not buying that he's cooked because he's had a poor ten inning stretch.

Except many thought DRH soft stuff and reliance on being a different look was always something that wouldn't last very long. I view a decline in his performance at this point the same way I would a 40 y/o no longer being able to cut it. Its not likely to get better.

mth123
06-28-2010, 02:58 PM
Herrera's days are numbered one way or another. If he doesn't go down when we need to call up another starter, he'll certainly go down when Chapman is called up. I can't see us carrying 4 lefties (Chapman, Bray, Herrera, Rhodes) in the same pen.

No way I send Smith down either, he's done nothing to deserve to be demoted.

Exactly.

fearofpopvol1
06-28-2010, 03:19 PM
Except many thought DRH soft stuff and reliance on being a different look was always something that wouldn't last very long. I view a decline in his performance at this point the same way I would a 40 y/o no longer being able to cut it. Its not likely to get better.

Except 10 innings of bad pitching hardly proves anything. Especially when DRH has a season+ worth of appearances and did just fine. Nothing has been proven yet.

Ondrusek has proven not much of anything up until now.

mth123
06-28-2010, 03:26 PM
Except 10 innings of bad pitching hardly proves anything. Especially when DRH has a season+ worth of appearances and did just fine. Nothing has been proven yet.

Ondrusek has proven not much of anything up until now.

A season for DRH is more than anyone ever expected. As far as turning into a pumpkin goes, its way past midnight for DRH. Its not the 10 innings as much as the fact that most expected he'd be toast by last season at this time. In his case a bad month is plenty IMO unless he's not healthy and there is reason to believe his stuff will improve. He's at the top of his game and getting hit.

Blitz Dorsey
06-28-2010, 03:31 PM
There is middle ground here.

First of all, definitely give me Ondrusek over Herrera right now if I had to pick one of them. I'm talking about for the present and future. I really like the way he is throwing the ball and I chalk his early-season struggles up to a rookie being nervous pitching for the first time in the bigs. Since coming back up, he's been lights-out good. And his minor league numbers last year (and this year) were very good.

However, that doesn't mean I am completely giving up on Herrera. I think the Reds need three lefties in the pen, not two, and now they have it. I think last year was a bit of a fluke for Herrera and now that there is more data on him batters are more prepared to face him. I agree that his time COULD be running out -- I'm definitely not very optimistic about him like I was last year. However, as a situational lefty, as a guy who can give hitters a different look from time to time, I still think he has his place. If he keeps getting rocked, he's obviously going to be out of Cincinnati soon, but I think he'll get more time (and deserves it). Hopefully Rhodes (the best reliever in MLB thus far this season), Bray and Herrera give us the trio of lefties we need.

fearofpopvol1
06-28-2010, 03:34 PM
A season for DRH is more than anyone ever expected. As far as turning into a pumpkin goes, its way past midnight for DRH. Its not the 10 innings as much as the fact that most expected he'd be toast by last season at this time. In his case a bad month is plenty IMO unless he's not healthy and there is reason to believe his stuff will improve. He's at the top of his game and getting hit.

A season was better than anyone expected? I don't know about that. His minor league numbers were quite good at every level he pitched at. He pitched great in his first full season at The Show too.

10 innings doesn't prove jack. If the league has truly caught up to him, 10 innings is not enough time to conclude anything. I'm not ruling out Herrera being a failure moving forward. But 10 innings simply isn't enough time to accurately say.

Is Nick Masset a pumpkin too? He had a dismal stretch himself earlier this season. Is Cordero a pumpkin now too? He's also had a dismal stretch. You can say what you will, but the bottom line is that 10 innings ain't much of anything.

reds44
06-28-2010, 03:35 PM
A season was better than anyone expected? I don't know about that. His minor league numbers were quite good at every level he pitched at. He pitched great in his first full season at The Show too.

10 innings doesn't prove jack. If the league has truly caught up to him, 10 innings is not enough time to conclude anything.

Is Nick Masset a pumpkin too? He had a dismal stretch himself earlier this season. Is Cordero a pumpkin now too? He's also had a dismal stretch. You can say what you will, but the bottom line is that 10 innings ain't much of anything.
I think Masset, Cordero, and Herrera are all pretty bad.

Herrera is on a different level of bad than the first two, though.

SMcGavin
06-28-2010, 03:35 PM
A season for DRH is more than anyone ever expected. As far as turning into a pumpkin goes, its way past midnight for DRH. Its not the 10 innings as much as the fact that most expected he'd be toast by last season at this time. In his case a bad month is plenty IMO unless he's not healthy and there is reason to believe his stuff will improve. He's at the top of his game and getting hit.

Come on... because people incorrectly thought he wouldn't be good two years ago, now a 10 inning stretch of struggles means he's done?

Just for comparison, DRH had a 9 inning stretch last summer with an ERA over 6, OPS against of almost 1.000. He was getting rocked, just like he is now. Guess what he did over the next 14 innings? 1.29 ERA, .571 OPS against. These stretches happen for relievers all the time. But this time it's somehow different?

TheNext44
06-28-2010, 03:36 PM
I know it looks bad, but DHR really has not been hit that hard this season. He still is fooling hitters most of the time. If he wasn't, he would have been giving up more homers like the one he gave up to Santana on Sunday. But that was only his second homer given up all season, and seventh extra base hit. His bad stretch came from him missing location, not from guys "figuring him out."

His biggest problem has been that he was misused for awhile. He's not a LOOGY. His best pitch is a screwball, and he can't throw that against lefties. He also will always give up his share of hits, but he doesn't walk many and doesn't give up many XBH or homers. So his best role is middle relief, pitching a full inning, starting with no one on base. He should never come in with men on base.

That said, he probably still looks like the best guy to send down, but only for now, and only because everyone else is pitching better than he is. I see him being successful middle reliever for years to come.

RedsManRick
06-28-2010, 03:39 PM
Come on... because people incorrectly thought he wouldn't be good two years ago, now a 10 inning stretch of struggles means he's done?

Just for comparison, DRH had a 9 inning stretch last summer with an ERA over 6, OPS against of almost 1.000. He was getting rocked, just like he is now. Guess what he did over the next 14 innings? 1.29 ERA, .571 OPS against. These stretches happen for relievers all the time. But this time it's somehow different?

Confirmation bias is a powerful thing. That's not to say DRH has pitched well, and there are certainly some concerning trends, but I do wonder what we'd be saying if he was 6'2" and threw 93 mph. The guy has a 4.09 ERA, which is in line with his FIP & xFIP and people want to ditch him. Cordero has a 4.25 ERA -- should we be cutting bait with him too?

SMcGavin
06-28-2010, 03:40 PM
I know it looks bad, but DHR really has not been hit that hard this season. He still is fooling hitters most of the time. If he wasn't, he would have been giving up more homers like the one he gave up to Santana on Sunday. But that was only his second homer given up all season, and seventh extra base hit. His bad stretch came from him missing location, not from guys "figuring him out."

His biggest problem has been that he was misused for awhile. He's not a LOOGY. His best pitch is a screwball, and he can't throw that against lefties. He also will always give up his share of hits, but he doesn't walk many and doesn't give up many XBH or homers. So his best role is middle relief, pitching a full inning, starting with no one on base. He should never come in with men on base.

That said, he probably still looks like the best guy to send down, but only for now, and only because everyone else is pitching better than he is. I see him being successful middle reliever for years to come.

Could not agree more. I've been making this case forever. DRH excels at limiting extra base hits. I've shown in the past how his career IsoP against is lower than the league average, while his OBP allowed is not.

nate
06-28-2010, 04:00 PM
I know it looks bad, but DHR really has not been hit that hard this season. He still is fooling hitters most of the time. If he wasn't, he would have been giving up more homers like the one he gave up to Santana on Sunday. But that was only his second homer given up all season, and seventh extra base hit. His bad stretch came from him missing location, not from guys "figuring him out."

His biggest problem has been that he was misused for awhile. He's not a LOOGY. His best pitch is a screwball, and he can't throw that against lefties. He also will always give up his share of hits, but he doesn't walk many and doesn't give up many XBH or homers. So his best role is middle relief, pitching a full inning, starting with no one on base. He should never come in with men on base.

That said, he probably still looks like the best guy to send down, but only for now, and only because everyone else is pitching better than he is. I see him being successful middle reliever for years to come.

Yes.

mth123
06-28-2010, 04:01 PM
Confirmation bias is a powerful thing. That's not to say DRH has pitched well, and there are certainly some concerning trends, but I do wonder what we'd be saying if he was 6'2" and threw 93 mph. The guy has a 4.09 ERA, which is in line with his FIP & xFIP and people want to ditch him. Cordero has a 4.25 ERA -- should we be cutting bait with him too?

There is no question that if he was 6-2 and throwing 93 MPH he'd get a lot more rope, But he's not 6-2 and his stuff is limited so his leash is real short IMO. At this point he's easily the most hittable guy in this pen and it is not like he has a long history of success. He has a season of decent work that can be explained more by limited exposure than his assortment of pitches. If that is confirmantion bias so be it, but its not like there is anyone else who is getting hit more at this point. If he had three or four years of success I'd say he's established himself and one of the kids would go first, but he hasn't really established anything at this point so the guy getting hit is the one to go down IMO.

bucksfan2
06-28-2010, 04:27 PM
I know it looks bad, but DHR really has not been hit that hard this season. He still is fooling hitters most of the time. If he wasn't, he would have been giving up more homers like the one he gave up to Santana on Sunday. But that was only his second homer given up all season, and seventh extra base hit. His bad stretch came from him missing location, not from guys "figuring him out."

His biggest problem has been that he was misused for awhile. He's not a LOOGY. His best pitch is a screwball, and he can't throw that against lefties. He also will always give up his share of hits, but he doesn't walk many and doesn't give up many XBH or homers. So his best role is middle relief, pitching a full inning, starting with no one on base. He should never come in with men on base.

That said, he probably still looks like the best guy to send down, but only for now, and only because everyone else is pitching better than he is. I see him being successful middle reliever for years to come.

Here are is the line on opposing hitters facing Herrera .333/.354/.452 OPS .805. It is fairly split down the line regardless of handedness. What it tells me is Herrera is getting hit and isn't getting the job done. He may not be a LOGGY because he really isn't getting left handers out, but he isn't doing a good enough job of getting right handers out. Even worse he isn't getting the first batter he faces out. They are hitting .375/.371/.531 OPS .903.

As mentioned above it would absolutely matter if he were 6'2" with a 93 MPH fastball. He would have stuff to blow by hitters. As it is now he is using trickery and guile more than anything else to get batters out. He is a trick pitcher and when he runs out of tricks he is throwing batting practice speed.

To be honest I am surprised that people are defending keeping him on the team. When he comes in the game he isn't getting the first hitter he faces out. He is putting not only himself but the rest of the team in a bind by often allowing the first batter he faces to reach base.

I don't know if this is just a blimp and he can get his game back or if the league has caught up to DRH. But I don't want him trying to figure out his game any more at the big league level.

_Sir_Charles_
06-28-2010, 04:28 PM
Herrera deserves some criticism. He's struggled. But - multiple people are now voicing their preference to dump the guy with a 3.66 career major league ERA, in favor of a guy who has a 5.08 ERA and 4.4 K/9 in AA this season? Let's take a step back.

Agreed. I also agree about him not getting called strikes. His stuff is such that if the Ump decides to squeeze him, he's absolute toast. He HAS to work the edges and he does it well. When he's missing his spots, he's also toast. But he's been good enough for a long enough of a stretch to deserve a BIT of leeway IMO. Just because you don't throw hard doesn't mean you can't be successful. And it's not a matter of the batters "catching on". It's a matter of him pitching effectively. If he's throwing well and hitting his spots and mixing it up like he can, he can make even the best hitters look outright foolish. But that being said, he's struggling big time. The question is why? Is it because he's gotten squeezed and has been forced to throw into the heart of the plate? Or is he simply missing his locations?

fearofpopvol1
06-28-2010, 04:29 PM
There is no question that if he was 6-2 and throwing 93 MPH he'd get a lot more rope, But he's not 6-2 and his stuff is limited so his leash is real short IMO. At this point he's easily the most hittable guy in this pen and it is not like he has a long history of success. He has a season of decent work that can be explained more by limited exposure than his assortment of pitches. If that is confirmantion bias so be it, but its not like there is anyone else who is getting hit more at this point. If he had three or four years of success I'd say he's established himself and one of the kids would go first, but he hasn't really established anything at this point so the guy getting hit is the one to go down IMO.

Ignorning DRH's success from last season, I'm failing to see how Ondrusek has been much better at The Show even this year?

Ondrusek:

17.2 IP
21 H
12 ER
6 BB
11K
6.11 ERA
5.11 FIP

DRH:

22 IP
31 H
10 ER
4 BB
12 K
4.09 ERA
3.77 FIP

The only statistic Ondrusek has in his favor is that he's given up less hits...but it's not like 21 hits in 17.2 innings is lighting the world on fire either. DRH's stats overall have been better than Ondrusek's and DRH has shown he can consistently do it at The Show, something Ondrusek has not proven yet.

Maybe DRH is toast, but again, it's really too early to conclude that. Just as it's too early to conclude that we should pencil Ondrusek in because he's had a few good appearances in a row.

_Sir_Charles_
06-28-2010, 04:41 PM
A season for DRH is more than anyone ever expected. As far as turning into a pumpkin goes, its way past midnight for DRH. Its not the 10 innings as much as the fact that most expected he'd be toast by last season at this time. In his case a bad month is plenty IMO unless he's not healthy and there is reason to believe his stuff will improve. He's at the top of his game and getting hit.

So we should dump him because the "baseball guru's" decided he would fail eventually? I don't get this logic. You're basically saying that we should ignore his solid track record in the minors AND the majors and instead focus on the REAL numbers of these past 10 innings or so? Or am I misunderstanding you?

Pointing to a pitchers "stuff", especially a pitcher like Danny, is the wrong thing to do IMO. No, he doesn't have a nasty fastball. But he does locate well, change speeds exceedingly well, and has some VICIOUS movement on his pitches. That kind of "stuff" has its place as well. Especially in a staff loaded with fireballers like ours is overall. The only thing DRH needs to improve on is his location. As he himself has said, he's been having trouble locating his breaking stuff recently.

I've got no problem demoting him if it's to give him time to re-find his location. But sending him down because he's obviously done and figured out...nope, not buying that.

mth123
06-28-2010, 04:56 PM
Ignorning DRH's success from last season, I'm failing to see how Ondrusek has been much better at The Show even this year?

Ondrusek:

17.2 IP
21 H
12 ER
6 BB
11K
6.11 ERA
5.11 FIP

DRH:

22 IP
31 H
10 ER
4 BB
12 K
4.09 ERA
3.77 FIP

The only statistic Ondrusek has in his favor is that he's given up less hits...but it's not like 21 hits in 17.2 innings is lighting the world on fire either. DRH's stats overall have been better than Ondrusek's and DRH has shown he can consistently do it at The Show, something Ondrusek has not proven yet.

Maybe DRH is toast, but again, it's really too early to conclude that. Just as it's too early to conclude that we should pencil Ondrusek in because he's had a few good appearances in a row.

DRH's good work came mostly in April. Innings are limited so ERA and such stats aren't meaningful, but over the last 2 months DRH has thrown 12.666 Innings in 23 games. He's given up 24 Hits and 3 walks with 7Ks and 2 HR allowed. Given his short stints, it might be easy to say one bad outing could ruin it, but in 23 outing he's had 8 when he hasn't allowed a runner and 4 of those were the 1 batter faced types. He lets guys on and gives up hits consistently. You can say small sample size and in many ways I'd agree, but that is a third of a full season and over two thirds of the season so far where he hasn't been getting the job done. Time for a change. Ondrusek hasn't been as lights out as his 1.86 ERA in June might indicate, but in 11 appearances he's held the opposition to nothing 5 times. His stints are a little longer and yes he does have more "stuff." I'd agree that he hasn't established anything and its possible that Herrera, Smith and Ondrusek are all back in AAA with Bray, Chapman and possibly an outsider taking those spots, but 2 months of bad says to me that DRH is first in line to go down. I don't really care what he did in 2009 or even in April of 2010. When he comes in, he throws fat ones that are getting hit right now.

mth123
06-28-2010, 05:02 PM
So we should dump him because the "baseball guru's" decided he would fail eventually? I don't get this logic. You're basically saying that we should ignore his solid track record in the minors AND the majors and instead focus on the REAL numbers of these past 10 innings or so? Or am I misunderstanding you?

Pointing to a pitchers "stuff", especially a pitcher like Danny, is the wrong thing to do IMO. No, he doesn't have a nasty fastball. But he does locate well, change speeds exceedingly well, and has some VICIOUS movement on his pitches. That kind of "stuff" has its place as well. Especially in a staff loaded with fireballers like ours is overall. The only thing DRH needs to improve on is his location. As he himself has said, he's been having trouble locating his breaking stuff recently.

I've got no problem demoting him if it's to give him time to re-find his location. But sending him down because he's obviously done and figured out...nope, not buying that.

To me DRH is like the comedian who came up with one funny gag and tried to make a career of it. After a while it gets old and you either get new material or fade to the background. DRH is the Father Guido Sarducci of pitchers. He got some mileage from his one trick, but its time for some new stuff or to fade away. The same act won't keep working.

SMcGavin
06-28-2010, 05:14 PM
To me DRH is like the comedian who came up with one funny gag and tried to make a career of it. After a while it gets old and you either get new material or fade to the background. DRH is the Father Guido Sarducci of pitchers. He got some mileage from his one trick, but its time for some new stuff or to fade away. The same act won't keep working.

This may or may not be true. I don't really believe it, but I'm not attempting to disprove that possibility. What I'm saying is that 10 or 12 innings of bad pitching is not evidence in favor of such a theory. It's variance. Your theory is one without much evidence in its favor at this time (again, not saying it couldn't be proven true going forward). If DRH's next twelve innings are like his last twelve, I'll be more concerned.

_Sir_Charles_
06-28-2010, 05:14 PM
To me DRH is like the comedian who came up with one funny gag and tried to make a career of it. After a while it gets old and you either get new material or fade to the background. DRH is the Father Guido Sarducci of pitchers. He got some mileage from his one trick, but its time for some new stuff or to fade away. The same act won't keep working.

You seriously think he's a one trick pony? Yes, he throws a screwball. But it's hardly his only pitch. His other breaking pitches are quite nasty. I know his fastball only tops out in the mid 80's, but it's change of speeds that is his bread and butter. He has a +20 mph difference in his pitches. When you're seeing a 64 mph Screwball coming in there, that 85 mph fastball looks like a 95 mph heater. But it's not JUST that either. It's his movement too. His breaking pitches have a LOT of break on them.

But because people haven't seen the screwball in a while, fans & writers clamped on to that pitch and labeled him like that's his only pitch. He's quite a bit more than a one trick pony.

And btw, if we're going to continue to debate Herrera, we should probably start a different thread for it. I'm assuming someone will comment on this fact shortly. Never fails. :O)

TheNext44
06-28-2010, 05:37 PM
To me DRH is like the comedian who came up with one funny gag and tried to make a career of it. After a while it gets old and you either get new material or fade to the background. DRH is the Father Guido Sarducci of pitchers. He got some mileage from his one trick, but its time for some new stuff or to fade away. The same act won't keep working.

Don Novello (Father Guido Sarducci) had a long and successful career as a comic actor and author. He was not a one trick pony. He appeared in dozens of TV shows and movies, including a rather large role in "The Godfather III." His three books based on the character Lazlo Toth were all best sellers and big critical successes.

Yakov Smirnoff on the other hand...

mth123
06-28-2010, 05:53 PM
You seriously think he's a one trick pony? Yes, he throws a screwball. But it's hardly his only pitch. His other breaking pitches are quite nasty. I know his fastball only tops out in the mid 80's, but it's change of speeds that is his bread and butter. He has a +20 mph difference in his pitches. When you're seeing a 64 mph Screwball coming in there, that 85 mph fastball looks like a 95 mph heater. But it's not JUST that either. It's his movement too. His breaking pitches have a LOT of break on them.

But because people haven't seen the screwball in a while, fans & writers clamped on to that pitch and labeled him like that's his only pitch. He's quite a bit more than a one trick pony.

I've seen the screwball. I remember Freddie Norman being quite successful as a back-end starter (also a short lefty) with it. IIRC, Mike Marshall was a dominant reliever for a while with one.

DRH's "trick" is the slow speed. The screwball from a lefty to a RH hitter acts like a curve. Its not really all that tricky. I think the speed isn't a surprise anymore.

Like many on here, I thought that DRH coming in after somebody like Cueto, Volquez or Bailey could really screw guys up and I think it worked for a while. Its just that's the kind of thing that doesn't work once people catch on and a guy like that needs to be on a short leash. DRH has been ineffective for two full months in a row. Its not "only 10 innings" its a major portion of his season and its enough to make a change when its kind of known at the beginning that the leash should be short. Other guys are more likely to get outs at this point IMO.

mth123
06-28-2010, 06:01 PM
Don Novello (Father Guido Sarducci) had a long and successful career as a comic actor and author. He was not a one trick pony. He appeared in dozens of TV shows and movies, including a rather large role in "The Godfather III." His three books based on the character Lazlo Toth were all best sellers and big critical successes.

Yakov Smirnoff on the other hand...

You got me. Yakov it is.