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View Full Version : Turning the calender to July, what do we need as the deadline approaches?



reds44
07-01-2010, 04:38 AM
As we sit here on July 1st, I'm struggling to wrap my head around what exactly what the Reds needs.

Looking at the team, I know where I think they could use upgrades:
LF
CF
SS
SP
RP

As much as Stubbs drives me up the wall sometimes, I'm going to be patient with him. His OPS+ is 87 which isn't horrible and his defense (despite him being afraid of the wall) really is good. When you consider he's only a rookie and should improve, I'm all for sticking it out with him.

Right now Cabrera has an impressively bad OPS of .621. I mean, that's really bad. However, as much as I hate saying somebody "knows how to win" watching OC play gives you appreciation for his leadership. I'm not really sure I'm willing to risk what it would do to the clubhouse to acquire a SS.

The bullpen seems to have stabilized a bit as of late. The Reds aren't going to trade for a closer, so we all need to hope and pray Cordero rememebers that he doesn't suck soon. I think we may end up having to acquire an arm at the deadline, but I'm willing to let Ondrusek and Smith ride out their hot streaks before concluding we have to trade for another arm in the pen. Hopefully Chapman comes up soon and we get a better idea of our pen by the deadline.

That leaves two spots, LF and SP.

I think you can lump the uncertainy of Stubbs into what I'm about to say, but I'm not sure if I'm comfortable having both Gomes and Stubbs playing everyday down the stretch. Gomes had a GREAT May, but his April and June were horrible, especially considering his defense. I'm not saying Gomes is garbage, I think he'll be a useful part to the Reds down the stretch, I'm just not sure if the Reds can afford not having another option to him and Stubbs. I'd like to see Heisey get some more ABs the next few weeks to see if he can relyed upon, but if the Reds can find an alternative who can play both LF and CF and not to be forced to break the bank to get him, it'd be ideal. DeJesus really does seem like the perfect fit for the Reds.

SP is the main need, however. Leake has been amazing this year, he really as. However when you consider he's going to be over 100 IP after his next start, I just don't know how much you can actually expect out of him down the stretch. Arroyo will be Arroyo, and I think I'm starting to accept the fact that you can do worse than Harang as your 5th starter. Cueto is probably the best overall pitcher right now, but he fell apart in the second half last year so he's not even a sure thing. The x factor is obviously Volquez. If the Reds can go out and get Lee, that'd be amazing, but I think no matter what they're going to need to trade for a reliable starter at minimum.

What say you?

Tom Servo
07-01-2010, 05:14 AM
Pitching pitching pitching.

redsfandan
07-01-2010, 06:11 AM
To be healthy (Hanigan, Volquez, Bailey, Rolen, etc).

mth123
07-01-2010, 06:58 AM
TOR Starter - I think Leake has another 70 innngs or so in him. Its not like he needs shut down now, he just may be unavailable down the stretch. The real isue is that every pitcher in the rotation is decent but iffy. Who is the real Harang? Is Arroyo the mid-rotation guy that he appears to be or can he step up like he did last year? Who is the real Cueto? Can Volquez come back and be effectrive? These are all guys who probably should have a spot in a big league rotation, I just don't know if a play-off team should be made up of so many guys with questions. The team needs some one without so many questions to lead the staff. The iffy guys can fall in behind him, but the entire staff should not be so iffy.

Left Handed Bats - The Reds need a couple role players to address the issues noted at LF, CF and SS. I think a guy who can hit left handed, play the IF spots and maybe has some possibilities as a regular at SS in the future would be ideal. A lefty to spell Cabrera and spot in for Philips and Rolen would fit well on this team. Not sure if that guy is out there now (Reid Brignac would be perfect but he's probably not available for what the Reds could give up). An OF who can play a little LF and some CF who is better than Dickerson and hit lefty would be a nice addition. The David Dejesus suggestion would be perfect, but he's probably going to require prospects that I'd hope the Reds use to get the TOR arm they need. Angel Pagan would be a nice addition if Beltran comes back.

A Late Inning Relief Arm - I still like Masset and Smith and Ondrusek have shown some promise, but like the rotation, I want some one who is more established for the late innings to go with Rhodes and Cordero. This should be obtainable w/o costing a ton.

Multiple deals are probably not likely but three deals could fix the team pretty well and seem reasonable.

1. Harang (and maybe some cash) to the Mets for Angel Pagan
2, Alonso, Wood and Sulbaran for Cliff Lee
3. Janish, Heisey, Maloney, Herrera and Ondrusek for Chad Qualls and Stephen Drew

Lee
Arroyo
Volquez
Cueto
Leake/Bailey/Lecure

Owings
Bray
Smith/Fisher/Burton/Del Rosario
Masset
Qualls
Rhodes
Cordero

Phillips 2B
Drew/Cabrera SS
Votto 1B
Rolen 3B
Bruce RF
Gomes/Pagan LF
Stubbs/Pagan CF
Hernandez/Hanigan C

Cairo
Nix/Dickerson

GoReds
07-01-2010, 08:03 AM
To make the team better, thought needs to directed not simply towards the second half, but also with the playoffs in mind. This team is pretty green when it comes to postseason experience and some veteran leadership in the rotation would certainly help. I really think the Reds need to pursue a trade for Cliff Lee even if he is simply a rental.

Having a rotation that has Lee, Arroyo and Volquez at the top sounds a lot better to me than a rotation of Arroyo, Volquez and Harang (I'm leaving out Leake here because of innings, but I would put him as the fourth starter in a seven game series).

Roy Tucker
07-01-2010, 09:43 AM
Keep winning games.

_Sir_Charles_
07-01-2010, 10:10 AM
Anal spelling police!

Calendar. I know, sometimes I irritate MYSELF. :O)

Seriously though...I'd still want us to add a top flight bullpen arm. I like what Smith & Ondrusek have done lately, but I'd rather have someone with a bit more of a track record going forward or at least with some REAL solid results this season. I'm still interested in those 3 White Sox relievers (Santos, Thorton & Putz), Meek from the Pirates and Lindstrom from the 'stros.

REDREAD
07-01-2010, 10:30 AM
The number one thing the Reds could use is a bullpen arm, IMO.

Sure, the other needs will help, but this is not a playoff caliber bullpen.

I would love to snag a young, talented mid-priced LF or SS from some team doing a salary dump in July.. that would help us this year and down the road.

Cliff Lee would be the perfect guy to get if we are going "all in" this year, but I'm not sure that we are only an ace starter away. I really enjoy this team, but I'm not sure they are quite at that point yet. I have enough confidence in Walt (and the relatively weak NL Central) to believe we might even be stronger contenders next year... I'm not going to complain if we get Lee, but I'd prefer getting a player that would help us for the next 3 years.. Another acquision like Rolen would be awesome :)

Redsfan320
07-01-2010, 10:41 AM
Wouldn't mind acquiring a decent spot starter-long relief type guy who could help the pen, or start should Volquez not be ready, Leake be put on hold, etc.. I guess someone who could kinda fill Owings spot, but better, and also pitch in middle relief too, like the 6th or 7th inning. Not sure who on Earth would fill this role, but I'd sure like to have him.

320

cumberlandreds
07-01-2010, 10:43 AM
You can never have enough pitching. That's an easy cliche but very true. Saying that I wouldn't destroy the team or farm system for a two month rental on a guy that is unsignable for the Reds (Cliff Lee).

nate
07-01-2010, 11:00 AM
(SP * 2) + RP + More Janish + More Heisey = NL Central

RedsMan3203
07-01-2010, 01:10 PM
The real question is.....

How much confidence do you have in the following players:

Aaron Harang
Bill Bray
Logan Ondrusek
Jordan Smith
Jonny Gomes

If you go after Cliff Lee, where does he fit in? Who is out? Homer? Wood? Harang? Leake?

If you add that extra arm (That we all know the Reds need) Who is it? Dotel? Qualls?

Don't forget Mike Lincoln should be getting closer to his return to the big club ;)

I think the club needs to add 1 Arm to the Pen, Left Hand Power type bat off the bench, DFA Nix.

And I'd like to see Heisey and Gomes off the Bench.

15fan
07-01-2010, 01:54 PM
As of the start of play today (7/1/10), these teams are out of it and thus sellers: Baltimore (-23), Cleveland (-12.5), Seattle (-14), Washington (-12), Houston (-13), Pittsburgh (-16.5) and Arizona (-15.5). Start with those rosters and see what might be available there.

These teams aren't officially out of it, but if they have a rough 7-10 game stretch in the next month, they become sellers: Toronto (-8), KC (-9.5), Oakland (-10), Cubs (-9.5), Milwaukee (-8.5) and Florida (-8.5).

Houston, Chicago, Pittsburgh and Milwaukee all being in the NL Central whittles down the possible trade partners for the Reds, as teams generally don't help out division rivals.

In the abstract, I think another relief arm is a must. 2 relief arms would be ideal.

Having said that, I think that if Cliff Lee is on the market, you go get him.

Throw down the gauntlet and do so with authority.

Fortune favors the bold.

Will M
07-01-2010, 02:10 PM
TOR Starter - I think Leake has another 70 innngs or so in him. Its not like he needs shut down now, he just may be unavailable down the stretch. The real isue is that every pitcher in the rotation is decent but iffy. Who is the real Harang? Is Arroyo the mid-rotation guy that he appears to be or can he step up like he did last year? Who is the real Cueto? Can Volquez come back and be effectrive? These are all guys who probably should have a spot in a big league rotation, I just don't know if a play-off team should be made up of so many guys with questions. The team needs some one without so many questions to lead the staff. The iffy guys can fall in behind him, but the entire staff should not be so iffy.

Left Handed Bats - The Reds need a couple role players to address the issues noted at LF, CF and SS. I think a guy who can hit left handed, play the IF spots and maybe has some possibilities as a regular at SS in the future would be ideal. A lefty to spell Cabrera and spot in for Philips and Rolen would fit well on this team. Not sure if that guy is out there now (Reid Brignac would be perfect but he's probably not available for what the Reds could give up). An OF who can play a little LF and some CF who is better than Dickerson and hit lefty would be a nice addition. The David Dejesus suggestion would be perfect, but he's probably going to require prospects that I'd hope the Reds use to get the TOR arm they need. Angel Pagan would be a nice addition if Beltran comes back.

A Late Inning Relief Arm - I still like Masset and Smith and Ondrusek have shown some promise, but like the rotation, I want some one who is more established for the late innings to go with Rhodes and Cordero. This should be obtainable w/o costing a ton.

Multiple deals are probably not likely but three deals could fix the team pretty well and seem reasonable.

1. Harang (and maybe some cash) to the Mets for Angel Pagan
2, Alonso, Wood and Sulbaran for Cliff Lee
3. Janish, Heisey, Maloney, Herrera and Ondrusek for Chad Qualls and Stephen Drew

Lee
Arroyo
Volquez
Cueto
Leake/Bailey/Lecure

Owings
Bray
Smith/Fisher/Burton/Del Rosario
Masset
Qualls
Rhodes
Cordero

Phillips 2B
Drew/Cabrera SS
Votto 1B
Rolen 3B
Bruce RF
Gomes/Pagan LF
Stubbs/Pagan CF
Hernandez/Hanigan C

Cairo
Nix/Dickerson

can't disagree with anything here. an addition of another SP, another late inning reliever, a real SS or a left handed CF/LF bat would help the team. the diagnosis of the rotation being 'iffy' is spot on. right now a lot is riding on the health of Volquez.

i suspect the team is limited by salary that Bob doesn't want to take on plus a limited number of real trade chips. if it came down to Drew versus Haren/Lee i am not sure which i would rather have.

Ghosts of 1990
07-01-2010, 02:25 PM
I'm going to be honest with you guys. I see Anaheim falling out of the race. They have a lot of pieces that could help us quite a bit.

SS Erick Aybar
OF Bobby Abreu
OF Juan Rivera
SP Ervin Santana
Then of course their bullpen:
Fuentes, Rodney, a bunch of guys who log significant high stress innings
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAA/2010.shtml

Cedric
07-01-2010, 02:33 PM
I'm going to be honest with you guys. I see Anaheim falling out of the race. They have a lot of pieces that could help us quite a bit.

SS Erick Aybar
OF Bobby Abreu
OF Juan Rivera
SP Ervin Santana
Then of course their bullpen:
Fuentes, Rodney, a bunch of guys who log significant high stress innings
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAA/2010.shtml

They will probably win that division. Even if they don't they aren't going to flip young studs like Aybar. They just reload every year.

Redsfan320
07-01-2010, 02:48 PM
^^^
You think they'll beat Texas?

320

Joseph
07-01-2010, 02:58 PM
July 1st - .5 game lead on the Cards
June 15th - Tied for first with the Cards
June 1st - 1 game lead on the Cards
May 15th - .5 game back of Cards
May 1st - 4.0 games back of Cards
April 15th - 1.5 games back of Cards
April 5th - 1.0 games back of Cards/Bucs [First game of season]

Red of course is 1st place, blue is second.

Basically all season we have been in first or second place and with the exception of early May its been pretty close. The team will need to continue to scrape and scrap in order to keep it up, but they are a better team than we might have thought early on. They need some luck and of course some talent at the deadline in order to contend all season though.

RedsMan3203
07-01-2010, 03:09 PM
If you are Bob C and Walt - You go get what you need to win. The fans are starting to SHOW up, so lets give them more of a reason to get to the ballpark. When was the last time you saw 26K + at a afternoon get away day game?

If the Reds continue to win, they'll continue to fill up the park... You fill up the park it makes it easier to go get that Lee/Haren/Oswalt type pitcher.

Hoosier Red
07-01-2010, 04:16 PM
I was thinking about this the other day.

Outside of a true top line starting pitcher, what position would have a marginal improvement over what the Reds have out there.

The main problem I see with mid season pickups is the short period of time where they have an impact.

I mean a 3 WAR improvement would be a huge impact, but taken over less than 60 games? And there's no reliever that would be that much of an improvement over Masset, Smith, Bray, or Ondrusek in my opinion. Especially when you consider how volatile relievers are anyway.

How likely is it that any leftfielder would be that much better than Johnny Gomes/Chris Heisey?

A stronger bench would be great, but you're talking maybe 50 ABs? Joey Votto doesn't even prove to be that much better than Miguel Cairo depending on such a small sample.

Reds1
07-01-2010, 05:17 PM
You can always use a pitcher, but with Edison Volquez coming back and possibly Homer around and now after what Travis Wood has done today I think the SP with Cueto, Harang and Arroyo they have 5 that can do it. I'd say we need to pick up a pitcher in the pen. Chapman could be interesting, but there are several upgrades that can be made. Maybe a bench guy, but I'm ok with with Johnny gomes. Even with him struggling he continues to get key hits ilke the one today to bring in the 2nd run. I think he's also a very popular guy in the club house and you don't want to mess with the chemistry of the team. So I"m a bullpen guy.

RedsManRick
07-01-2010, 06:46 PM
I'm with you, Hoosier. Either go big and hang tight. That's why I want Lee. He's one of the few, if any, guys out there who I can say with some degree of certainty adds wins to the team.

Ghosts of 1990
07-02-2010, 10:59 AM
I desperately want Dejesus now. He's 30 years old. He's hitting .332 right now. He's a career .290 guy.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dejesda01.shtml

He'd be perfect for CF and lead off.

Ghosts of 1990
07-02-2010, 11:03 AM
They will probably win that division. Even if they don't they aren't going to flip young studs like Aybar. They just reload every year.

I think Texas is going to run away with it this season.