PDA

View Full Version : Reds by WAR as of July 1



RedsManRick
07-01-2010, 12:38 PM
Accepting the flaws inherent in any measurement system, here are the Reds to date in 2010, by WAR. As a team, largely on the backs of an extremely productive IF, we're ~20 wins above replacement. Enjoy!



Name Pos Bat Fld Rep Pos SP RP RAR WAR
Votto 1B 24.6 3.8 10.7 -5.5 33.6 3.4
Phillips 2B 11.4 2.3 11.7 1.2 26.6 2.7
Rolen 3B 15.7 -0.4 9.6 1.0 25.9 2.6
Bruce OF 7.6 1.6 10.6 -3.5 16.3 1.7
Leake SP 1.3 0.0 1.2 0.0 11.8 14.3 1.5
Hernandez C 2.6 1.0 6.5 3.6 13.7 1.4
Cueto SP -5.3 0.0 1.1 0.0 17.2 13.0 1.3
Hanigan C 7.2 0.0 3.1 1.8 12.1 1.2
Rhodes RP 0.0 8.0 8.0 0.8
Heisey OF 3.0 2.6 2.1 -0.3 7.4 0.8
Arroyo SP -2.8 0.0 1.2 0.0 7.9 6.3 0.6
Harang SP -5.3 0.0 1.2 0.0 9.8 5.7 0.6
Stubbs OF -2.7 -4.3 9.7 1.1 3.8 0.4
Bailey SP -1.1 0.0 0.5 0.0 4.0 3.4 0.3
Cordero RP 0.0 2.6 2.6 0.3
Sutton IF 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.9 0.2
Herrera RP -0.3 2.2 1.9 0.2
Janish IF -1.0 0.3 1.8 0.4 1.5 0.2
Cabrera SS -13.1 0.1 11.1 3.3 1.4 0.1
Masset RP 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.1
Del Rosario RP 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.1
Smith RP 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.1
Owings RP -0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0
Nix OF -4.1 1.5 3.5 -0.8 0.1 0.0
Gomes OF 3.2 -8.9 9.0 -3.2 0.1 0.0
Lincoln RP -0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Dickerson OF -3.4 1.7 1.5 -0.1 -0.3 0.0
Fisher RP -0.3 -0.3 0.0
Cairo IF -0.9 -2.1 3.2 -0.6 -0.4 0.0
Bray RP 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 -0.1
Francisco 3B -0.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.7 -0.1
Ondrusek RP 0.0 -0.9 -0.9 -0.1
Miller C -3.0 0.0 1.0 0.7 -1.3 -0.1
Lecure SP -1.6 0.0 0.3 0.0 -1.1 -2.4 -0.2

Catchers C 6.8 1.0 10.6 6.1 0.0 0.0 24.5 2.5
Infield IF 37.4 4.2 48.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 89.8 9.1
Outfield OF 3.6 -5.8 36.4 -6.8 0.0 0.0 27.4 2.8
Starters SP -16.1 0.0 4.3 0.0 37.8 0.0 26.0 2.6
Relievers RP -1.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 14.6 13.6 1.4

Total 31.5 -0.6 101.4 -0.9 49.6 14.6 195.6 19.9

Hoosier Red
07-01-2010, 12:49 PM
Rick, does the WAR count as a season average, or if Votto is 3.4 WAR right now would that project to 6.8 WAR for the season?

Brutus
07-01-2010, 12:54 PM
Rick, does the WAR count as a season average, or if Votto is 3.4 WAR right now would that project to 6.8 WAR for the season?

It's accumulated. So yep, he would be projected to finish with 6.8

RedsManRick
07-01-2010, 12:58 PM
Rick, does the WAR count as a season average, or if Votto is 3.4 WAR right now would that project to 6.8 WAR for the season?

It's a counting stat. So yes, Votto projects to right around 7 WAR if he keeps producing at this pace. 7 WAR is as a good a standard as any for MVP territory.

since 2000:

Year NL MVP WAR AL MVP WAR
2009 Albert Pujols 9.2 Joe Mauer 7.9
2008 Albert Pujols 9.6 Dustin Pedroia 5.2
2007 Jimmy Rollins 6.1 Alex Rodriguez 9.9
2006 Ryan Howard 5.8 Justin Morneau 3.8
2005 Albert Pujols 8.2 Alex Rodriguez 8.4
2004 Barry Bonds 12.4 Vladimir Guerre 7.4
2003 Barry Bonds 10.3 Alex Rodriguez 7.7
2002 Barry Bonds 12.2 Miguel Tejada 5.2
2001 Barry Bonds 12.5 Ichiro Suzuki 7.6
2000 Jeff Kent 7.9 Jason Giambi 8.7

Non-Bonds average is 7.3 WAR

Homer Bailey
07-01-2010, 01:24 PM
Seeing that breakdown makes me understand the Heisey over Gomes argument a little better.

Can someone explain what REP is? Thanks.

RedsManRick
07-01-2010, 01:52 PM
Seeing that breakdown makes me understand the Heisey over Gomes argument a little better.

Can someone explain what REP is? Thanks.

It's an adjustment to account for the difference between average and replacement level. I can't explain it as well as Dave Cameron does here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/win-values-explained-part-four

Think of it as a playing time adjustment as it's based solely on PA. Or as Dave puts it:


The more you play, the higher the replacement level adjustment, because you’re filling a larger quantity of playing time and that chunk won’t need to be filled by anyone else.

Likewise, the Pos (position) adjustment is based on playing time in the field.

As for the logic of its necessity as part of the WAR calculation, I'd refer you to the full 7 part series.

OesterPoster
07-01-2010, 02:17 PM
Stubbs' Fld number of -4.3 kinda sticks out.

jojo
07-01-2010, 04:52 PM
Seeing that breakdown makes me understand the Heisey over Gomes argument a little better.

Can someone explain what REP is? Thanks.

Basically WAR's baseline is relative to a league average player irrespective of position. So the value of the bat is calculated relative to average. In order to express things in terms of marginal value though, the value needs adjusted for the difference between replacement and average (which is prorated for playing time just like the offensive value).