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RedsManRick
07-01-2010, 06:06 PM
So mlbtraderumors says that the Pads are looking for a bat, LF among them, and have relievers to trade.

I wonder how they'd react to a Gomes for Mike Adams offer...

steig
07-01-2010, 06:11 PM
How would Redszone react to trading Gomes. He's been one of the biggest bats in the offense this season and trading him, especially to a team in the playoff race also, would possibly hurt the Reds more than help.

Nasty_Boy
07-01-2010, 06:14 PM
I wouldn't be against such a trade... Gomes has been pretty solid, but I keep waiting for the clock to strike midnight. They'll probably hold onto him and I say he'll be average the rest of the way, but I do wonder how getting Adams and moving Heisey to left would work out.

Will M
07-01-2010, 06:15 PM
IMO trading Gomes would be a massive massive mistake. Clubhouse chemistry does matter & moving Gomes would destroy it. I realize the arguements against Gomes and/or for Heisey. I would be totally fine with getting a better LH bat than Nix/Dickerson to play some LF along with Gomes. However I would not trade Gomes after what he has done both between the lines & outside the lines this season.

westofyou
07-01-2010, 06:42 PM
SD would laugh, and if RZ didn't like the trade than they haven't paid attention to Mike Adams

dougdirt
07-01-2010, 06:43 PM
SD would laugh, and if RZ didn't like the trade than they haven't paid attention to Mike Adams

Or Jonny Gomes for that matter....

kbrake
07-01-2010, 07:40 PM
Redszone might or might not be ok with it but I can't imagine it would go over well in the Reds locker room.

Spitball
07-01-2010, 07:58 PM
I'd love to see the Reds get this guy, but like Gomes in Cincy, he has been too valuable to his team's success. Why rob Peter to pay Paul when you are in first place?

I believe Great American Ball Park might be the only place he has not pitched well this season.

Patrick Bateman
07-01-2010, 08:01 PM
If the Reds were looking for a bat would they be trading Arthur Rhodes??

RedEye
07-01-2010, 08:04 PM
I'd love to see the Reds get this guy, but like Gomes in Cincy, he has been too valuable to his team's success. Why rob Peter to pay Paul when you are in first place?


Because it would make the team better?

Mike Adams is an absolute beast out of the pen in San Diego. If the Reds could get this deal, they would have to jump on it.

jojo
07-01-2010, 08:09 PM
Or Jonny Gomes for that matter....

He's basically been a replacement level bat in March/April and June which means given his defense, he's been a hemorrhaging ulcer outside of his hot streak in May...

Spitball
07-01-2010, 08:15 PM
Because it would make the team better?

Mike Adams is an absolute beast out of the pen in San Diego. If the Reds could get this deal, they would have to jump on it.

Okay, I removed the phrases that must have confused you. The Padres are not likely to be trading a key component to their success to shore up a weakness.


I'd love to see the Reds get this guy, but_____________, he has been too valuable to his team's success.

dougdirt
07-01-2010, 08:24 PM
He's basically been a replacement level bat in March/April and June which means given his defense, he's been a hemorrhaging ulcer outside of his hot streak in May...

Yep. I don't see the Reds trading him though because of the clubhouse issues.

RedEye
07-01-2010, 10:31 PM
Okay, I removed the phrases that must have confused you. The Padres are not likely to be trading a key component to their success to shore up a weakness.

Oh... sorry. I misread your post. We are indeed of a like mind on this issue. Sure would like to see the Reds get Mike Adams though!

TheNext44
07-01-2010, 10:57 PM
No matter how good, I don't like trading any real talent for a middle reliever. They should be available for B and C prospects all day, every day. If they are so valuable to their original team, that they want more for him, let them keep him. A middle reliever is never worth creating a whole somewhere else in your organization.

jojo
07-01-2010, 11:31 PM
No matter how good, I don't like trading any real talent for a middle reliever. They should be available for B and C prospects all day, every day. If they are so valuable to their original team, that they want more for him, let them keep him. A middle reliever is never worth creating a whole somewhere else in your organization.

Mike Adams is a legit high leverage arm with excellent command, groundball tendencies and no real platoon splits to go with his exceptional ability to miss bats. His impact is something like that of an average everyday player despite being a bullpen arm. He's a rare commodity and as such has trade value.

TheNext44
07-01-2010, 11:47 PM
Mike Adams is a legit high leverage arm with excellent command, groundball tendencies and no real platoon splits to go with his exceptional ability to miss bats. His impact is something like that of an average everyday player despite being a bullpen arm. He's a rare commodity and as such has trade value.

He is that right now, but relievers, especially middle relievers are so volatile that he could easily become the Mike Adams the Brewers knew and loved as soon as he puts on a Reds uniform and has to pitch in a homer friendly park. He might just revert back to his old self of half as many K's and twice as many HR on his own while pitching in San Diego.

I remember the Red Sox trading half their farm to get Gagne from the Rangers because he was lights out for Texas. He comes over the Boston and pitches like Gary Majewski for the last two months.

Sample sizes are too small and controllable by the manager to trust any middle relievers stats as evidense of how they will pitch in the future. Grab them if they are cheap, but don't pay retail for them.

jojo
07-02-2010, 12:58 AM
He is that right now, but relievers, especially middle relievers are so volatile that he could easily become the Mike Adams the Brewers knew and loved as soon as he puts on a Reds uniform and has to pitch in a homer friendly park. He might just revert back to his old self of half as many K's and twice as many HR on his own while pitching in San Diego.

I remember the Red Sox trading half their farm to get Gagne from the Rangers because he was lights out for Texas. He comes over the Boston and pitches like Gary Majewski for the last two months.

Sample sizes are too small and controllable by the manager to trust any middle relievers stats as evidense of how they will pitch in the future. Grab them if they are cheap, but don't pay retail for them.

Again, you're letting dogma get in the way of the devil who is always in the details. Adams' peripherals are projectable and they are unique and valuable. If you want to judge a guy based upon ERA, sure they might have an ERA over a short stretch that suggests they pitched to Majewski's true skill but we know that the most likely outcome in the future is that they'll pitch to their unique and valuable true skill. And in a high leverage situation, that's the bet that is a winning one.

The logical extension of your argument would be to load the pen full of pitch to contact guys. We know that isn't nearly as effective as loading the pen full of guys that have more control over their own destiny. The Reds pen between '05 and '09 teaches us that...

BTW, that's a dramatically different argument than suggesting its smart for the Reds to pay a closer $50M or invest almost 30% of their payroll in their pen, which clearly isn't smart.

TheNext44
07-02-2010, 01:40 AM
Again, you're letting dogma get in the way of the devil who is always in the details. Adams' peripherals are projectable and they are unique and valuable. If you want to judge a guy based upon ERA, sure they might have an ERA over a short stretch that suggests they pitched to Majewski's true skill but we know that the most likely outcome in the future is that they'll pitch to their unique and valuable true skill. And in a high leverage situation, that's the bet that is a winning one.

The logical extension of your argument would be to load the pen full of pitch to contact guys. We know that isn't nearly as effective as loading the pen full of guys that have more control over their own destiny. The Reds pen between '05 and '09 teaches us that...

BTW, that's a dramatically different argument than suggesting its smart for the Reds to pay a closer $50M or invest almost 30% of their payroll in their pen, which clearly isn't smart.


This has nothing to do with ERA or pitch to contact vs. K pitchers. I'm all for loading a pen with guys who can strike people out.

I actually agree with you on nearly everything except that Adams peripherals are projectable.

The whole idea about them being projectable is that there's enough depth to them to be considered repeatable. That means that the pitcher has faced enough teams, pitched in enough parks, in enough different kinds of weather and wind, in enough day games, in enough night games, in enough day after night games, against enough RH hitters, LH hitters, RH pull hitters LH pull hitters, RH spray hitters, LH spray hitters, with runners on every base situation possible enough times, late in games, early in game, speedy runners, power hitters... so that we get a true reflection of his skill level, that randomness has been factored out.

Pitching one inning at a time, in the middle of the game, three times a week, even for many years, just doesn't give you the depth of data needed to draw any real conclusions about their true skill level. There too much room for it to be randomness, especially with a good manager, who can exploit a relief pitchers strengths and hide his weaknesses.

There is a reason why so few relief pitchers have long careers. They aren't very good, but can get by for awhile until the league or randomness catches up with them. For every one Arthur Rhodes, there are 50 Cla Maredeth's. And I wouldn't give up much even for Sir Arthur right now. Relief pitchers are just too volatile.

fearofpopvol1
07-02-2010, 01:51 AM
I doubt Adams would be a reliever available.

The Reds desperately need a shutdown arm for the pen. They really just don't have one currently. I'd happily trade Gomes for him.

I would trade Gomes if it improves the Reds, but I wouldn't be trying to get rid of him or anything. He is valuable to the team. I'm not sure he should be starting as much as he has been, but he's provided value for how little he's being paid.

jojo
07-02-2010, 02:21 AM
The whole idea about them being projectable is that there's enough depth to them to be considered repeatable.

Things like Krates, BBrate, and batted ball tendencies are remarkably repeatable (mostly because they are things within the pitcher's control)...


Adams
K/9 BB/9 GB/FB
2008 10.19 2.62 1.06
2009 10.95 1.95 1.21
2010 10.22 2.68 1.24

TheNext44
07-02-2010, 04:06 AM
Things like Krates, BBrate, and batted ball tendencies are remarkably repeatable (mostly because they are things within the pitcher's control)...


Adams
K/9 BB/9 GB/FB
2008 10.19 2.62 1.06
2009 10.95 1.95 1.21
2010 10.22 2.68 1.24



Adams' are projectable in his last three years, but not so much if you include his first few years. And they aren't for the other members of the Padres pen, outside of Heath Bell. And if you look at the Reds peripherals, the only relievers with consistent projectables are Cordero (kinda) and Rhodes.

Sure there are exceptions. Maybe Adams is one of them, but I'm not going to bet real talent on it. Relievers are volatile and they should not be invested in like other "everyday" players on the team.

That said, if I was convinced that Adams would be as lights out pitching for the Reds as he as been for the Padres, I'd trade Gomes for him in a heartbeat.

nate
07-02-2010, 08:05 AM
No matter how good, I don't like trading any real talent for a middle reliever.

Right.

That's why it's OK to trade Gomes for him!

:cool:

HeatherC1212
07-02-2010, 10:37 AM
I got this information when I was watching BBTN last night. The Padres bullpen has all ready pitched 250 1/2 innings this year. The next closest team had something like 205 innings (and it wasn't us!). :eek: I know they've been pretty awesome for the Padres so far but those guys are going to be spent before they even get to September if they keep pitching innings at that pace. I don't know if I feel comfortable trading any guys to get one of them simply because it appears they've been more overworked than Rhodes and Cordero and any of them could easily break down right when we would need them the most at the end of the season. Maybe I'm wrong on that front (I'm not a huge stat head) but that innings amount sure seems like a red flag to me.

Roy Tucker
07-02-2010, 10:45 AM
Its in the GM 101 class, trade when value is high.

flyer85
07-02-2010, 10:52 AM
I can't imagine the Pads trading any important member of their pen.

jojo
07-02-2010, 11:06 AM
Adams' are projectable in his last three years

Yep.

TheNext44
07-02-2010, 01:16 PM
Yep.

But they weren't early in his career. That was the next sentence. And they are not for most other relievers. My point is that it is very rare for a relief pitcher to be consistently good for three years or longer, which is what you are hoping for with Adams.

Do I need to take a few hours out of my life to do the research that proves this? Relievers fall of the face of the earth at the drop of a hat, and sometimes find themselves again in another drop of a hat. Even ones with great peripherals over a few years. If you want a list, I'll do the work, but I do have better things to do, so just let me know. :p:

jojo
07-02-2010, 02:33 PM
But they weren't early in his career. That was the next sentence. And they are not for most other relievers. My point is that it is very rare for a relief pitcher to be consistently good for three years or longer, which is what you are hoping for with Adams.

Do I need to take a few hours out of my life to do the research that proves this? Relievers fall of the face of the earth at the drop of a hat, and sometimes find themselves again in another drop of a hat. Even ones with great peripherals over a few years. If you want a list, I'll do the work, but I do have better things to do, so just let me know. :p:

You probably should do the research.

bucksfan2
07-02-2010, 02:36 PM
I can't recall a major contributor (yea Gomes has been a major contributor this season) being traded at the trade deadline. I just don't see it happening this season. Especially when you consider the Reds control an option for Gomes next year that is at a discount.

Falls City Beer
07-02-2010, 02:38 PM
Bats are cheap and easy to obtain; the Pads are in the catbird seat--tons of pitching and only short maybe one bat. They'll get their man. I can't believe the number of doubters there are for the Pads. They are as real as any team with the best pitching the majors.

TheNext44
07-02-2010, 02:39 PM
You probably should do the research.

Oh great, and there's a "Wild, Wild West" marathon on the local indie station that I'll have to miss for this. You owe me. :)

jojo
07-02-2010, 02:56 PM
Oh great, and there's a "Wild, Wild West" marathon on the local indie station that I'll have to miss for this. You owe me. :)

I already know the answer.... truthfully, when find the answer, you'll owe me... :cool:

Mario-Rijo
07-02-2010, 03:01 PM
Bats are cheap and easy to obtain; the Pads are in the catbird seat--tons of pitching and only short maybe one bat. They'll get their man. I can't believe the number of doubters there are for the Pads. They are as real as any team with the best pitching the majors.

That's because no one believes they really do have the best pitching in the majors. It's interesting a guy who rants on the Reds pitching so much would be the one to say this. IMO the Pads pitching is a mirage, they aren't bad but far from the best in the bigs.

Cedric
07-02-2010, 03:04 PM
Baseball is the most emotional game there is. Is the marginal value gained really worth messing with someone as important to the team as Gomes?

This might be a magical season. Messing with something big like Gomes would be a mistake, IMO.

jojo
07-02-2010, 03:06 PM
Baseball is the most emotional game there is. Is the marginal value gained really worth messing with someone as important to the team as Gomes?

This might be a magical season. Messing with something big like Gomes would be a mistake, IMO.

If Gomes' true value is his intangibles, then trade him for Adams all day, every day.

nemesis
07-02-2010, 03:11 PM
If Gomes' true value is his intangibles, then trade him for Adams all day, every day.

I agree with you, but I do see the clubhouse value of keeping him. For that reason alone, you can't trade him. He is a very cheap valuible piece. You can aquire quality bullpen arms for B / C type minor league talent without screwing up the ML Roster.

Spitball
07-02-2010, 03:23 PM
I can't imagine the Pads trading any important member of their pen.

Exactly...and why Adams for Gomes doesn't really make sense. The Padres have plenty of trading chips in their minor league system and would be much more likely (and wiser) to trade someone who is not currently a vital part of their success. Likewise, the Reds have a depth prospects in certain areas that could be dealt without disturbing the current winning formula.

A trade of prospects to a non-contender might net the Padres Austin Kearns or David DeJesus. Guys who could probably put up Gomes-like numbers and play a little defense in that spacious ballpark.

fearofpopvol1
07-02-2010, 03:26 PM
Bats are cheap and easy to obtain; the Pads are in the catbird seat--tons of pitching and only short maybe one bat. They'll get their man. I can't believe the number of doubters there are for the Pads. They are as real as any team with the best pitching the majors.

I think they're much more short than 1 bat. I think their pitching is good enough to get them into the playoffs, but teams like the Pads who don't have a good balance of pitching and offense tend to struggle in the playoffs. Especially when the other teams in the playoffs can put up their #1 and 2 pitchers to help them win the series'.

Mario-Rijo
07-02-2010, 03:27 PM
If Gomes' true value is his intangibles, then trade him for Adams all day, every day.

SO says those who don't value such things or don't think they matter. We aren't playing on cardboard here these are real people and likely ones who lean on Gomes' enthusiasm at times for a nice positive boost. I agree with Cedric I doubt this would be a trade that would be a wise one for the Reds.

nemesis
07-02-2010, 03:39 PM
Sounds like Soriano would be a good fit in SD less his contract. Padres have the talent to go get him, not that it would take much at this point, but he would immediately become their #4 hitter in that lineup. Wonder if the Cubs would pick up half of whats owed to him for the right package back?

Mario-Rijo
07-02-2010, 03:41 PM
Sounds like Soriano would be a good fit in SD less his contract. Padres have the talent to go get him, not that it would take much at this point, but he would immediately become their #4 hitter in that lineup. Wonder if the Cubs would pick up half of whats owed to him for the right package back?

Would it offset how poor his fielding likely would be for them?

bucksfan2
07-02-2010, 03:41 PM
Sounds like Soriano would be a good fit in SD less his contract. Padres have the talent to go get him, not that it would take much at this point, but he would immediately become their #4 hitter in that lineup. Wonder if the Cubs would pick up half of whats owed to him for the right package back?

That is a huge outfield for Soriano play in. Actually he would be a disaster in LF.

Falls City Beer
07-02-2010, 03:45 PM
That's because no one believes they really do have the best pitching in the majors. It's interesting a guy who rants on the Reds pitching so much would be the one to say this. IMO the Pads pitching is a mirage, they aren't bad but far from the best in the bigs.

Even in a big park, their peripherals are excellent. They've got a devastating pen.

TheNext44
07-02-2010, 04:03 PM
I already know the answer.... truthfully, when find the answer, you'll owe me... :cool:

What's the question? Just to make sure I do the right research. I may agree with you on what you think the question is.

The question I will be looking at is two fold:

How many relievers have constant K rates, HR rates and BB rates for two full season in a row, and...

How often do those reiief pitcher with consistent K rates, HR rates and BB rates for two years, continue to have those same rates for the next full season?

TheNext44
07-02-2010, 04:07 PM
SO says those who don't value such things or don't think they matter. We aren't playing on cardboard here these are real people and likely ones who lean on Gomes' enthusiasm at times for a nice positive boost. I agree with Cedric I doubt this would be a trade that would be a wise one for the Reds.

I value such things as Clubhouse presence, but I'm just not sure that the Clubhouse presence that Gomes brings is all that valuable. The kind Rolen brings is. Being a leader on and off the field, leading by example is very valuable. Being the clubhouse clown and keeping the atmosphere light, not so much.

nemesis
07-02-2010, 04:17 PM
Would it offset how poor his fielding likely would be for them?

They had Blanks in LF for most the early season and he wasn't very good so at least they get some offense from the position with poor defense.

Mario-Rijo
07-02-2010, 04:19 PM
They had Blanks in LF for most the early season and he wasn't very good so at least they get some offense from the position with poor defense.

Good point, makes alot of sense then.

Mario-Rijo
07-02-2010, 04:21 PM
I value such things as Clubhouse presence, but I'm just not sure that the Clubhouse presence that Gomes brings is all that valuable. The kind Rolen brings is. Being a leader on and off the field, leading by example is very valuable. Being the clubhouse clown and keeping the atmosphere light, not so much.

Not so much but it does have some value. Of course if you aren't swinging the bat well (if your Gomes) then it's a moot point I suppose. The team would likely eventually get over it if it worked out.

jojo
07-02-2010, 04:24 PM
SO says those who don't value such things or don't think they matter. We aren't playing on cardboard here these are real people and likely ones who lean on Gomes' enthusiasm at times for a nice positive boost. I agree with Cedric I doubt this would be a trade that would be a wise one for the Reds.

Just how much impact could that possibly have?

Intangibles are mostly a feel good narrative that is frosting on fan cake. Really, the Reds would try less or forget how to give it their all if Gomes was traded?

This "real people" language is kind of a canard that draws a false demarcation between quantifying performance and reality.

jojo
07-02-2010, 04:29 PM
What's the question? Just to make sure I do the right research. I may agree with you on what you think the question is.

The question I will be looking at is two fold:

How many relievers have constant K rates, HR rates and BB rates for two full season in a row, and...

How often do those reiief pitcher with consistent K rates, HR rates and BB rates for two years, continue to have those same rates for the next full season?

It's a straight forward issue I think. How predictive are peripherals (K/9, BB/9, GB%) for pitchers-i.e. how well do they correlate from year to year. Since we're really arguing about high leverage relievers, you could make the cohort even easier to manage by only worrying about relief pitchers with above average Krates. Clearly its not appropriate to label all relief pitchers "middle relievers".

Mario-Rijo
07-02-2010, 04:32 PM
Just how much impact could that possibly have?

Intangibles are mostly a feel good narrative that is frosting on fan cake. Really, the Reds would try less or forget how to give it their all if Gomes was traded?

This "real people" language is kind of a canard that draws a false demarcation between quantifying performance and reality.

Are they mostly just a "feel good narrative", can you quantify that Jojo? :cool:

But seriously it makes a difference in every job everywhere if you enjoy going to work. Been there to many times to dismiss it completely. Sure I still went and did my job regardless but it's less of a mental and even to some extent a physical grind. That helps. The only difference is these guys are paid to be more professional than that but again it still has an impact and an even greater one once you have it and are used to it and then don't.

Falls City Beer
07-02-2010, 04:33 PM
I think they're much more short than 1 bat. I think their pitching is good enough to get them into the playoffs, but teams like the Pads who don't have a good balance of pitching and offense tend to struggle in the playoffs. Especially when the other teams in the playoffs can put up their #1 and 2 pitchers to help them win the series'.

Remember when the Reds were supposedly short 3 or 4 bats last season? Then they got Rolen--Bruce took a step forward in his development; then all of a sudden they're a top 5 offense? I remember. You're never terribly far away from a great offense, unless you're really dumb or really cheap.

jojo
07-02-2010, 04:40 PM
Are they mostly just a "feel good narrative", can you quantify that Jojo? :cool:

But seriously it makes a difference in every job everywhere if you enjoy going to work. Been there to many times to dismiss it completely. Sure I still went and did my job regardless but it's less of a mental and even to some extent a physical grind. That helps. The only difference is these guys are paid to be more professional than that but again it still has an impact and an even greater one once you have it and are used to it and then don't.

Sure working with a bunch of buddies is more fun than not. Winning (being successful) is more fun than working with a bunch of buddies if one is actually trying to do work though. Being unsuccessful with a bunch of buddies kind of sucks after a while.

That's my real people world.

Mario-Rijo
07-02-2010, 04:45 PM
Sure working with a bunch of buddies is more fun than not. Winning (being successful) is more fun than working with a bunch of buddies if one is actually trying to do work though. Being unsuccessful with a bunch of buddies kind of sucks after a while.

That's my real people world.

I didn't say anything about "buddies" that is a slightly different "thing". But in the real world it's less tough to be successful if you have a bunch of folks who gel together fairly well and one piece can be semi-critical. Gomes as would Rolen and to maybe a slightly lesser extent OCab would be 3 guys whose intangibles promote success especially in a team oriented business.

jojo
07-02-2010, 04:56 PM
I didn't say anything about "buddies" that is a slightly different "thing". But in the real world it's less tough to be successful if you have a bunch of folks who gel together fairly well and one piece can be semi-critical. Gomes as would Rolen and to maybe a slightly lesser extent OCab would be 3 guys whose intangibles promote success especially in a team oriented business.

But I'd argue upgrading the true talent in left and short would promote success to a much greater extent.

TheNext44
07-02-2010, 05:13 PM
My two cents on this issue.

Winning creates a fun clubhouse more often than the other way around.

And from my experience, one jerk at work can do far more damage to the attitude of the workplace, than ten great people can help the attitude of the workplace.

backbencher
07-02-2010, 05:35 PM
Before Rolen, and maybe OCab, Votto and Phillips had to carry the mantle of "leader." Now, they can focus on the job of "hitter." Who knows how big an impact that shift has had, but I like it.

fearofpopvol1
07-02-2010, 05:38 PM
Remember when the Reds were supposedly short 3 or 4 bats last season? Then they got Rolen--Bruce took a step forward in his development; then all of a sudden they're a top 5 offense? I remember. You're never terribly far away from a great offense, unless you're really dumb or really cheap.

I keep thinking about the Astros earlier this decade and how they had great pitching and a bad offense. They could never get over the hump because they couldn't score any runs in the playoffs.