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View Full Version : which prospects would you like to keep?



Will M
07-04-2010, 02:29 AM
In order to get a true impact player such as a TOR starter or say Stephen Drew to play SS the Reds are going to have to trade something of value. As much as we would all love to trade Lecure & Dorn for Cliff Lee a deal like that would never happen. Looking at the Reds team I see four young players who could be a centerpiece of a big trade.

1. Yonder Alonso. seems that despite his not exactly destroying minor league pitching (possibly due to the hamate fracture) he is desired by other clubs. I've heard his name in the Lee rumors. IMO he is 100% tradable due to being blocked by Votto & having only dabbled in playing LF this year. He would seem to be the one big trade chip the team wouldn't miss.

2. Devin Mesoraco. Two words: sell high. Not that he couldn't someday be a fine major league catcher. Its that his value is higher now than its even been. Try to pawn off Todd Frazier in a deal for a TOR starter & the other team will wrinkle their nose due to his poor 2010 (so far). Yet the same team that wouldn't have even thought of Mesoraco 3 months ago is now drooling over him.

3. Chris Heisey or Drew Stubbs. while the team could play Stubbs in CF & Heisey in LF i believe the team would be better off by cashing in the trade value of a young centerfielder rather than playing Heisey in LF. LF & 1B have to be the easiest positions to find a competent player. even if Gomes reverts to being a platoon bat it shouldn't be that hard to find a lefty bat to play LF vs a RHP. Heck, we may even have one in house (Francisco, Dorn or even Dickerson)

4. Travis Wood. He is the one guy of the four that I would really like to keep. The old "you can never have enough pitching" addage certainly could apply to the Reds with Volquez (recovering from injury), Bailey (injured), Leake (young), Arroyo (may not be back for 2011) & Chapman (unproven). Cueto has been good so far but has put up an ERA+ of 92 & 97 in his two full seasons. The only way I would deal Wood is in a deal for a TOR arm that will be here past 2010 (say Haren, Greinke, Oswalt, etc). I would not include him in deal for Cliff Lee.

I would be shocked if Chapman was dealt. It could happen but I would be very suprised. I have heard Baliey's name mentioned as a trade chip but I can't see a team trading for a guy on the DL. After Alonso, Mes, Heisey/Stubbs & Wood the other prospects we have don't seem to have the value needed to make the centerpiece of a big trade. If anyone thinks someone else in the system could bring us back a big name please throw his name in the hat.

So, which top prospects would you be OK with trading in a deal for a star player & which prospects do you want to keep?

fearofpopvol1
07-04-2010, 02:39 AM
The 3 I'd most like to keep (or would expect a king's ransom in exchange for) would be Chapman, Y. Rodriguez and Mesoraco. I would trade anyone else in the right deal. I might be a little bit picky about Hamilton too, but I'm not sure anyone would be heavily coveting him at the moment anyway.

I just hope if Alonso is traded, the Reds aren't "selling low" because of the injury he's recovering from.

mth123
07-04-2010, 05:35 AM
Keep for sure:
Chapman

Would hate to deal (and not for a rental):

Y-Rod
Mesoraco
Cozart
Hamilton
Joseph

Prime Chips:

Alonso
Heisey/Stubbs (Only one. If one is dealt the other becomes not available)
Wood
Francisco

nemesis
07-04-2010, 06:35 AM
Keep:

Wood

Mez

Chapman

Yorman

in that order.

Would like to Keep:

Heisey
Cozart
Joseph
Hamilton
Duran
Arias

Move away:

Bailey
Alonso
Francisco
Soto
Dorn
Massett
Fisher
Sutton
Boxberger
Valiquette
Johnson
Frazier
Valakia
Klinker
Maloney
LeCure
Ondrusek
DRH
Smith
Del Rosario
Henry
Sappelt
Carroll
Fairel
Sulbaran
Gregorious
H Rodriguez
Krebs
Thompson
Hotchkiss
Coddington
Fellhauer
Garton
Tuttle

Tell me that if you went to Seattle and said we will take Lee and give you Alonso, Dorn, Francisco, Maloney and Heisey they don't pull that trigger.

Alonso at 1B over a .194 hitting Kotchman, Dorn at DH over a .212 hitting Bradley, Francisco at 3B over a .589 OPSing Lopez, Maloney just to fill the rotation spot Lee vacated, Heisey in LF over a .209 hitting Saunders and DRH who probably has ran his course in the NL. No way they wouldn't take that over Ramos from Minnesota.

Sure it depletes the AAA farm team, but, it keeps Frazier and puts him back in LF for good. Keeps Wood for next year after Lee is gone ditto for Bailey and keeps Mez for September 2011 and April 2012. It fits.

mth123
07-04-2010, 06:53 AM
I think this board way over-values Wood. If the Reds kept them all and made zero moves, I still don't see him as one of the the top 5 starters for 2011 even if the Reds let Harang and Arroyo walk and add no one.

Volquez
Cueto
Chapman
Leake
Bailey

Consider that they probably add a vet of some type to eat innings (or hopefully more) which would push Wood to 7th on the depth chart and guys like Klinker and whoever stays of Maloney and Lecure add depth behind him and the team can afford to deal Wood IMO. He's a prime chip and usually a young ML ready starter is a mandatory piece to add to get a TOR arm. I'd prefer a guy that will be around in 2011 as well and I'm not high on Haren, but I just don't understand why Oswalt seems to be so out of the question. If the Reds offered Wood, Alonso and Heisey, Oswalt would not only be a Red for 2010 and 2011, but the Astros would cover a lot of the cash IMO.

membengal
07-04-2010, 07:27 AM
mth, I hope the Reds value Wood about where the board does. Go and revisit his minor league numbers. He's on a trajectory that screams projectible major-league #3 pitcher for years and years. At the least. Left-handers with his plus change, cutter and command don't come along all that often. And he's just 23.

Heresy here, but I like his future more than Chapman's. There, I said it. Then again, I have a thing for strike throwers and players with command. I think Wood is in the process of becoming such a pitcher...and I hope that Chapman is, but I don't know it at this juncture. And I don't think the Reds can either.

I would NOT deal, for a rental:

Wood
Mes
Chapman
Yorman Rodriguez
Junior Arias
Billy Hamilton

For a rental like Lee?

Alonso and anyone else not on the above list.

For a piece that would be here as a rotation anchor who is youngish and under a reasonable contract? In that case, none would be untouchable.

My itchiness is with dealing the first set of guys on my list for someone who will only be here for two months. And, no, I am not inclined to think differently because they get two #1s for losing Lee.

If they could deal for Lee AND sign him? Fine, send from the first list. But for a rental? No.

I also project the starting rotation a lot differently than you in 2011, mth. My thoughts at this juncture:

Volquez
Cueto
Vet arm of some type
Wood
Leake

Chapman in long relief until the team is sure that he can throw strikes on a regular basis. And I don't see that happening by the time the team breaks camp next year.

I don't think Bailey is a long-term solution for this team, and would like to see him gain a modicum of health and then dealt this off-season.

mth123
07-04-2010, 07:49 AM
Maybe I'm biased but I like bigger guys with TOR stuff. I'm not high on short frail looking guys. Wood is 5-11 and only 165. I just don't see him as a guy holding up as a starter. He's had a good year and a half and his value is high. Now is the time to cash in.

Bailey and Chapman are both 6-4 and throw harder. Bailey is hurting this year (IMO from the big inning jump from 2008 to 2009) but is throwing again so hopefully there is no long term damage. Assuming the Reds add a vet for 2011, he and Chapman may be vying for one spot.

Wood can be a decent back end starter who I have doubts about being able to go more than 170 innings year in and year out. I don't see him being as high as a number 3 in a rotation unless its a train wreck like the Reds from the early 2000s. Bailey and Chapman both have TOR potential and I'd give them every opportunity to reach it.

membengal
07-04-2010, 07:54 AM
I def can see it being a bias as to type, then. I am okay with the shorter pitchers, but then again, I am only 5'9" myself and maybe I am sympathetic to my own...

I have long supported the idea of Bailey and Bailey himself. But I am not willing to cast aside a guy like Wood in the hope that Bailey someday has the lights come on. It may not happen for him here.

I am not saying throw Chapman away, just that I don't think he is ready to be a TOR guy yet. And another year in long relief grooming to start being that guy in 2012 lets them play my ideal 2011 rotation and see if they can all stay healthy.

If they can, then you can deal a Leake or a Wood at that point to make room for Chapman at the end of 2011 if Chapman is ready then. But I don't want Wood packing until we know more about Chapman. I LOVE the idea of Chapman, as much as I loved the idea of Bailey, but I don't want eggs in that basket prematurely.

And the Reds can figure on 175 or so innings from Wood in 2011 at, in the least in my opinion, a league average ERA. If not a pinch better.

ETA: Also, Wood was tossing it up there consistently at 92 in his debut, and touched 94 once. He's not Chapman, but if he can sit between 90 and 92 on the gun with his fastball, my understanding is that is above average velocity for a lefty starter in the big leagues...

At what Wood will cost, that's not something I would personally toss aside for a rental.

Eric_the_Red
07-04-2010, 08:08 AM
I would trade ANY prospect that nets the Reds a better established player.

I would keep ANY prospect that doesn't.

You can't get too attached to any prospect. If you can flip a couple of them to upgrade the 25 man roster, you do it, end of story. I don't care how many championships the organization wins in the minors, I want a World Series.

Plus, fans tend to tremendously overvalue their own club's prospects/players. Exhibit A: Stewart is not going to win the AL Cy Young and EdE is no longer a Blue Jay.

The reality is, most don't pan out or reach their potential. To me, prospects are like lottery scratch-off tickets: they may be worth something, very few of those are worth a lot, but most are generally worthless.

mth123
07-04-2010, 08:09 AM
I really don't like Rental players either and would really like to see Oswalt as the target. He'd be back in 2011 and the dollars committed should make him less costly in terms of talent. If the Reds go big on talent (say Alonso, Heisey and Wood), then the Astros would probably pay quite a bit of the remaining 2010 salary and some of 2011 as well. If the Astros balk at paying the bucks, I'd take Wood and Heisey off the table and happily deal Alonso and lesser pieces (say Maloney and Wlad or something).

IslandRed
07-04-2010, 08:57 AM
Maybe I'm biased but I like bigger guys with TOR stuff. I'm not high on short frail looking guys. Wood is 5-11 and only 165. I just don't see him as a guy holding up as a starter. He's had a good year and a half and his value is high. Now is the time to cash in.

Bailey and Chapman are both 6-4 and throw harder. Bailey is hurting this year (IMO from the big inning jump from 2008 to 2009) but is throwing again so hopefully there is no long term damage. Assuming the Reds add a vet for 2011, he and Chapman may be vying for one spot.

Wood can be a decent back end starter who I have doubts about being able to go more than 170 innings year in and year out. I don't see him being as high as a number 3 in a rotation unless its a train wreck like the Reds from the early 2000s. Bailey and Chapman both have TOR potential and I'd give them every opportunity to reach it.

Conversely, you can make an argument that because we have depth, and because we're in a contending window now, we can't afford and don't need to let Bailey flop around out there indefinitely trying to find consistency.

As for Travis Wood, he's a good problem to have. We'd love to keep him, some other team might love him enough to give us something even better.

membengal
07-04-2010, 09:26 AM
I would trade ANY prospect that nets the Reds a better established player.

I would keep ANY prospect that doesn't.

You can't get too attached to any prospect. If you can flip a couple of them to upgrade the 25 man roster, you do it, end of story. I don't care how many championships the organization wins in the minors, I want a World Series.

Plus, fans tend to tremendously overvalue their own club's prospects/players. Exhibit A: Stewart is not going to win the AL Cy Young and EdE is no longer a Blue Jay.

The reality is, most don't pan out or reach their potential. To me, prospects are like lottery scratch-off tickets: they may be worth something, very few of those are worth a lot, but most are generally worthless.


If that's directed at me, and since it follows my post, it may be, I am trying NOT to "overvalue" our own prospects. Also, the counter to overvaluing your own prospects is undervaluing them. Prospects are not trash. Some are projectible. And cost-effective. For a budget-minded team like Cincy, that is not something that can be ignored.

I AM noting that I don't want to let loose the ones from my list for a rental.

There's a difference between getting Rolen and extending him and getting Lee, say, for two and a half months, and then watching him walk.

Eric_the_Red
07-04-2010, 09:37 AM
If that's directed at me, and since it follows my post, it may be, I am trying NOT to "overvalue" our own prospects. Also, the counter to overvaluing your own prospects is undervaluing them. Prospects are not trash. Some are projectible. And cost-effective. For a budget-minded team like Cincy, that is not something that can be ignored.

I AM noting that I don't want to let loose the ones from my list for a rental.

There's a difference between getting Rolen and extending him and getting Lee, say, for two and a half months, and then watching him walk.

My post wasn't directed at you per se, just anyone who overvalues prospects (or, more accurately, anyone who overvalues their projections). I would argue that prospects are no more projectable than the weather. There is data to support projections, but in the end, it is just a guess.

What did Brandon Wood project to be a couple years ago? Did Brien Taylor ever reach his potential? History is littered with "can't miss" prospects that missed badly, and even more that only became replacement level players.

To me, prospects are currency used to improve your team. Some help the club by being dealt for better pieces, and some help by working their way through the minors. IMO, the first option is the safer route.

Take a look at the Red Sox dealing Jeff Bagwell to the Astros for Larry Anderson. Sure, the trade looks awful now. But suppose the move worked and Boston won the World Series that year. I doubt you'd find any BoSox fan that cared what Bagwell did the rest of his career.

membengal
07-04-2010, 09:41 AM
So just because Brien Taylor didn't pan out, all prospects are trash? On top of that, where did I say the prospects that I would not deal for a rental are "can't miss". Of course prospects can miss. They often do. Course, Lee could get here and blow an elbow one start later. No guarantees, right?

It's a matter of balancing risk and reward. And, economics of franchises matter. The Reds are not in a position as a franchise to burn legit prospects on rentals who they cannot keep. Money is not limitless.

Tell me they can get Lee and keep him, then, fine, send them whatever.

Tell me they are getting Lee for guys like Wood who can be cost-effective solutions for this team and that Lee will be gone next year?

Not fine.

And that's NOT over-valuing prospects. That is having an idea about the value of prospects who are major league ready to a franchise like Cincy.

mth123
07-04-2010, 10:01 AM
Conversely, you can make an argument that because we have depth, and because we're in a contending window now, we can't afford and don't need to let Bailey flop around out there indefinitely trying to find consistency.

As for Travis Wood, he's a good problem to have. We'd love to keep him, some other team might love him enough to give us something even better.

Or you could throw him in the 5 spot knowing you have alternatives if he busts completely. IMO Chapman and Bailey are both better bets than Wood long term. Wood might be better for the next 4 months, but if its the next 4 months we're worried about, then dealing him for a TOR arm should be something we're all in favor of.

Heck, I still think Zach Stewart is a better bet than Wood. Wood is a cut above Maloney and Lecure, but he's not a guy who couldn't be replaced. He's a number 4 or 5 IMO if he pans out.

Scrap Irony
07-04-2010, 11:15 AM
I'd keep Chapman pretty much no matter what.

I'd hate to see Joseph, Yorman Rodriguez, and Junior Arias leave, as I think each profiles as a game-changing chip if they pan out and a solid regular if they don't.

Everyone else is negotiable.

Eric_the_Red
07-04-2010, 01:11 PM
So just because Brien Taylor didn't pan out, all prospects are trash? On top of that, where did I say the prospects that I would not deal for a rental are "can't miss". Of course prospects can miss. They often do. Course, Lee could get here and blow an elbow one start later. No guarantees, right?

It's a matter of balancing risk and reward. And, economics of franchises matter. The Reds are not in a position as a franchise to burn legit prospects on rentals who they cannot keep. Money is not limitless.

Tell me they can get Lee and keep him, then, fine, send them whatever.

Tell me they are getting Lee for guys like Wood who can be cost-effective solutions for this team and that Lee will be gone next year?

Not fine.

And that's NOT over-valuing prospects. That is having an idea about the value of prospects who are major league ready to a franchise like Cincy.

I said all prospects are trash? Please show me where.

And you think Yonder Alonso is major league ready? Really?

nemesis
07-04-2010, 05:17 PM
I really don't like Rental players either and would really like to see Oswalt as the target.

So you don't like a 5'11" 180lb Wood,but you wanna deal for the 5'11" 190lb Oswalt?

mth123
07-04-2010, 05:54 PM
So you don't like a 5'11" 180lb Wood,but you wanna deal for the 5'11" 190lb Oswalt?

Well, Wood is 165 Lbs and Oswalt has poven his staying power.

membengal
07-04-2010, 06:37 PM
I said all prospects are trash? Please show me where.

And you think Yonder Alonso is major league ready? Really?

No. But that's why I would deal him. Did you even bother to read my initial post?

nemesis
07-04-2010, 06:49 PM
Well, Wood is 165 Lbs and Oswalt has poven his staying power.

Wood was 165 when he was drafted 5 years ago. MiLB never updates player weights. Francisco's profile say's he is 180, Watson's says 215 and neither have sniffed those weights in years. I have physically met Wood and he is every bit of 180+. Wood has proven his health over the last 3 years. Do you put Leake in in the same boat? Why not trade him with Alonso for Lee?

mth123
07-04-2010, 06:58 PM
Wood was 165 when he was drafted 5 years ago. MiLB never updates player weights. Francisco's profile say's he is 180, Watson's says 215 and neither have sniffed those weights in years. I have physically met Wood and he is every bit of 180+. Wood has proven his health over the last 3 years. Do you put Leake in in the same boat? Why not trade him with Alonso for Lee?

I do worry about Leake's staying power. I still think Chapman and Bailey will be better long term.

HokieRed
07-04-2010, 07:10 PM
I'd like to keep Wood, maybe most of all. He throws 90-92 regularly, shows the ability to locate on both sides of the plate. Has FB, cutter, tremendous change, and another breaking pitch. Shows pretty decent command. I think the 4 or 5 projections are way too low; I'd project him as at least a 3, probably a 2. I think we'll regret trading him in a deal for a rental.

OnBaseMachine
07-04-2010, 08:31 PM
I'd keep Chapman pretty much no matter what.

I'd hate to see Joseph, Yorman Rodriguez, and Junior Arias leave, as I think each profiles as a game-changing chip if they pan out and a solid regular if they don't.

Everyone else is negotiable.

I agree with all those names, though I'll add Travis Wood to the list too. I think he's got the stuff to be a #2/3 starter.