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nate
07-05-2010, 11:24 AM
Nice article, here (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/cincy-bats-fuel-playoff-push/). Tease:


The Cincinnati Reds pummeled the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley yesterday afternoon, bopping seven home runs while taking the game fourteen to three. Aside from Brandon Phillips and Jonny Gomes, the Reds’ hitters going deep weren’t the usual suspects. Drew Stubbs trotted around the bases three times. Paul Janish knocked one out, having been thrown into the game following Joey Votto‘s first inning ejection. Backup backstop Corky Miller, called into action after Ramon Hernandez came out with a sore knee, used the power of the Fu Manchu to crank one out of the park.

It's a nice read. The jist is, the Reds bats probably won't be as good in the second half but won't be dramatically worse.

Thoughts?

jojo
07-05-2010, 11:39 AM
Nice article, here (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/cincy-bats-fuel-playoff-push/). Tease:



It's a nice read. The jist is, the Reds bats probably won't be as good in the second half but won't be dramatically worse.

Thoughts?

For context, 10 pts of wOBA is worth about 3 runs over 330 PAs. If my thumb in the air math is correct, those ROS projections are suggesting a 30 run offensive decline in the second half (for the guys listed). Assuming Votto's season keeps plugging along like it is, the ROS projections would be kind of like losing Votto for the second half of the season.

yab1112
07-05-2010, 11:42 AM
What are ROS projections based on?

nate
07-05-2010, 11:46 AM
For context, 10 pts of wOBA is worth about 3 runs over 330 PAs. If my thumb in the air math is correct, those ROS projections are suggesting a 30 run offensive decline in the second half (for the guys listed). Assuming Votto's season keeps plugging along like it is, the ROS projections would be kind of like losing Votto for the second half of the season.

So roughly 3 wins?

The question is, could that be offset by:

*a healthy Volquez
*perhaps acquiring a better SP
*bullpen improvement

AND

Will maintaining the current pace be enough?

Mario-Rijo
07-05-2010, 11:48 AM
It's a nice read. The jist is, the Reds bats probably won't be as good in the second half but won't be dramatically worse.

Thoughts?

Probably right on the money so hopefully it can be offset with the pitching perhaps improving both starters and the pen. We have the potential for it to occur anyway. The schedule in the heat of July kind of helps the staff a bit we are on the road for the majority of it (13 away 9 at home counting pre AS games) but that also nicks the offense a bit that way. The HR has really been the key to the offense so far so we really need to hope BP and Orlando do a nice job of getting on base for the rest of July at least.

REDblooded
07-05-2010, 12:23 PM
Considering the amount of late inning wins, any drop-off offensively would echo resolutely.

Falls City Beer
07-05-2010, 12:25 PM
Considering the amount of late inning wins, any drop-off offensively would echo resolutely.

Unless the pitching improves. This team won't fall out of the top ten in MLB in runs scored.

jojo
07-05-2010, 12:26 PM
So roughly 3 wins?

The question is, could that be offset by:

*a healthy Volquez
*perhaps acquiring a better SP
*bullpen improvement

AND

Will maintaining the current pace be enough?

I think the Reds need to upgrade somewhere. They're current pace is good but even then they shouldn't settle.

Falls City Beer
07-05-2010, 12:26 PM
Will maintaining the current pace be enough?

Considering their division, probably.

nate
07-05-2010, 01:54 PM
I think the Reds need to upgrade somewhere. They're current pace is good but even then they shouldn't settle.

Agreed.

OnBaseMachine
07-05-2010, 02:09 PM
I think the Reds need to upgrade somewhere. They're current pace is good but even then they shouldn't settle.

I agree with this too. Another bat to pair with Gomes, a reliever, and another starting pitcher could make this team strong contenders to go deep in the playoffs.

Scrap Irony
07-05-2010, 02:27 PM
If they're three games worse, wouldn't that make them a 93 win team?

Add in a healthy Volquez (likely worth a game or two over LeCure/Bailey/Wood) and improved pitching (both pen and rotation) and the Reds should be around 95-97 wins, right?

Tommyjohn25
07-05-2010, 03:21 PM
I've been hearing that they're gonna drop off offensively all year long. I'm not buying it.

jojo
07-05-2010, 04:19 PM
If they're three games worse, wouldn't that make them a 93 win team?

Add in a healthy Volquez (likely worth a game or two over LeCure/Bailey/Wood) and improved pitching (both pen and rotation) and the Reds should be around 95-97 wins, right?

Right now they'd be a 92 win team assuming they maintained their .566 winning percentage.

Lose 3 wins worth of runs and the thumb-in-the-air suggests they'd be an 89 win team.

Then be a worry wort and consider that Leak, Arroyo, Ceuto, and Lecure have posted ERAs that are significantly lower than their FIPs and Leake will begin being managed which might point to run prevention regressing some too... The cavalry right now is a guy coming off of significant surgery who really wasn't a command specialist during his one good year as a major leaguer....

I'd just be a lot happier is this team was upgraded.

jojo
07-05-2010, 04:26 PM
Rolen had better be taking his vitamins too....

fearofpopvol1
07-05-2010, 04:29 PM
Right now they'd be a 92 win team assuming they maintained their .566 winning percentage.

Lose 3 wins worth of runs and the thumb-in-the-air suggests they'd be an 89 win team.

Then be a worry wort and consider that Leak, Arroyo, Ceuto, and Lecure have posted ERAs that are significantly lower than their FIPs and Leake will begin being managed which might point to run prevention regressing some too... The cavalry right now is a guy coming off of significant surgery who really wasn't a command specialist during his one good year as a major leaguer....

I'd just be a lot happier is this team was upgraded.

Yeah, but won STL be in for a correction as well? I can't imagine Garcia continues to put numbers like he has and some of those bullpen arms are questionable too IMO. I would think Rasmus and Freese may be subject to turns in their offense and Holliday has been playing above his norms as well.

jojo
07-05-2010, 04:43 PM
Yeah, but won STL be in for a correction as well? I can't imagine Garcia continues to put numbers like he has and some of those bullpen arms are questionable too IMO. I would think Rasmus and Freese may be subject to turns in their offense and Holliday has been playing above his norms as well.

Maybe.

But here's the pythags:

Reds: 46-37 (.554)
Cards: 47-35 (.573)

And coming into the season, projections systems generally thought the Cards roster was several wins better (diamond minds suggested by as much as 10 wins (http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/comments/the_2010_diamond_mind_projection_blowout_-_national_league_edition)) and right now the Reds are heading to 92 wins with basically everything going right.

OnBaseMachine
07-05-2010, 04:48 PM
I agree with this too. Another bat to pair with Gomes, a reliever, and another starting pitcher could make this team strong contenders to go deep in the playoffs.

Let me rephrase that a bit - If the Reds acquire Cliff Lee then they can probably get by without adding another player via trade. Lee is that good, IMO.

fearofpopvol1
07-05-2010, 04:52 PM
Maybe.

But here's the pythags:

Reds: 46-37 (.554)
Cards: 47-35 (.573)

And coming into the season, projections systems generally thought the Cards roster was several wins better (diamond minds suggested by as much as 10 wins (http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/comments/the_2010_diamond_mind_projection_blowout_-_national_league_edition)) and right now the Reds are heading to 92 wins with basically everything going right.

Makes sense. I just think that the Cards are in for corrections as well...will those be bigger than the ones for the Reds? I don't know.

For the record, I fully advocate the Reds upgrading...I think it's needed. I'd like to see them go out and get a Lee/Oswalt/Haren type pitcher and a LH bat, preferably one who can platoon in LF and be used off the bench for PH situations.

jojo
07-05-2010, 04:57 PM
Makes sense. I just think that the Cards are in for corrections as well...will those be bigger than the ones for the Reds? I don't know.

For the record, I fully advocate the Reds upgrading...I think it's needed. I'd like to see them go out and get a Lee/Oswalt/Haren type pitcher and a LH bat, preferably one who can platoon in LF and be used off the bench for PH situations.

I just think that for the first time in a while, we're looking at a legit chance for the Reds to make the playoffs.

Everything has gone right-yah for lady luck-but the roster has enough talent to take advantage of it and hang around. Really it's time for the Reds Fo to be all in (assuming it doesn't dramatically impact sustainability). Take on salary though it hurts to buy a gamble that playoff revenue will repay the loss. Trade an Alonso. Buy some insurance to increase the odds.

OnBaseMachine
07-05-2010, 05:19 PM
Maybe.

But here's the pythags:

Reds: 46-37 (.554)
Cards: 47-35 (.573)


The Cardinals got off to a fast start while the Reds struggled early on. Here are the Reds and Cardinals RS/RA since May 1st:

Reds: 310 RA/241 RA, +69
Cardinals: 255-229, +26

But as I said earlier, I don't think the Reds can afford to stand pat at the trade deadline. They need to acquire a starter, whether it be Cliff Lee, Dan Haren, or Roy Oswalt.

WebScorpion
07-05-2010, 06:05 PM
I've been hearing that they're gonna drop off offensively all year long. I'm not buying it.

Me neither. Traditionally, the end of August and the whole month of September we see a much more 'watered down' set of pitchers and defense. More than half of the teams are trying out next year's hopefuls or just playing out the string. I say the offense will be BETTER in the second half. :p: