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View Full Version : Votto...is it too late to lock him up, long-term?



SirFelixCat
07-06-2010, 01:56 AM
I think it's safe to say he's the cornerstone you build the franchise around. And we all know that many are/were wanting to hold off signing him to a LTC due to health (mental) concerns. But by waiting, he's made himself a front-runner for MVP.

So with that said, do you think the Reds will sign him thru the first couple of years of FA and can they? Do you want them to?

Discuss.

The Operator
07-06-2010, 02:04 AM
I'd offer him a 6-year, 60M contract backloaded as so:

5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15

Maybe they could get him cheaper but I doubt it. It looks him up fairly cheaply the next few years then gets a tad pricey at the end but he's worth it. He's the one guy you absolutely can't let go. He's our Pujols.

Benihana
07-06-2010, 02:20 AM
I'd offer him a 6-year, 60M contract backloaded as so:

5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15

Maybe they could get him cheaper but I doubt it. It looks him up fairly cheaply the next few years then gets a tad pricey at the end but he's worth it. He's the one guy you absolutely can't let go. He's our Pujols.

I would do this too, but I can't imagine he takes $12MM for the next two years. He'll get a boatload more than that in arbitration.

The Operator
07-06-2010, 02:22 AM
I would do this too, but I can't imagine he takes $12MM for the next two years. He'll get a boatload more than that in arbitration.

You never know, sometimes players will sacrifice a bit of initial "magnitude", so to speak, for the security of a long term deal. The Reds may have waited too long for that in this case, but I'd try it.

redsfandan
07-06-2010, 06:56 AM
Will they? Yes

Can they? Yes

Should they? Heck yeah

I would do this too, but I can't imagine he takes $12MM for the next two years. He'll get a boatload more than that in arbitration.
I don't know, I don't think that proposed contract would be off by too much.

HokieRed
07-06-2010, 09:27 AM
I don't see 6 for 60 as even close to getting it done. Try doubling that. This, IMHO, is the reason not to trade Alonso.

Ghosts of 1990
07-06-2010, 10:41 AM
Hard to put a market value on him right now IMHO. But this is why the Reds are foolish; because 6 for 60 would have gotten it done a year ago right now. By them continuing to be cheap and not locking up young talent that window has closed. Don't understand their philosophy.

savafan
07-06-2010, 10:49 AM
I don't think Votto's the type of person or player who would long for the spotlight of a New York or Boston...not even Chicago. He seems more a mid to small market type personality, which I think gives the Reds an edge.

oneupper
07-06-2010, 10:49 AM
Votto will be a Blue Jay in two years. :(

savafan
07-06-2010, 10:53 AM
Votto will be a Blue Jay in two years. :(

I don't think so, just based on what I have heard from someone who watched Joey play in Canada when he was in high school.

Ghosts of 1990
07-06-2010, 10:56 AM
I don't think so, just based on what I have heard from someone who watched Joey play in Canada when he was in high school.

What did you hear?

medford
07-06-2010, 11:08 AM
except a year ago this time, Joey was dealing with his noted mental issues. No one was really sure how Joey would come out the otherside. Some get thru it and never look back, while others its a life long struggle. Hopefully Joey is thru whatever mental issues he had last year, hopefully time has healed the hurt the loss of his father inflicted upon him, to at least some extend. But 1 year ago, a long term deal would have seemed much riskier than it does today.

Perhaps the best route the Reds took last season was when they told Joey to take as much time as he needed, allowed him to stay w/ his second family in Centerville for several weeks as he worked to get better. They took the time to ensure that Joey the man was healed before they worried about joey the ball player. How much does Joey appreciate that? Only Joey knows. How much does the comfort of staying in Cincy long term on perhaps less money that he could get in New York or LA? How much does the presence of his "foster" family in Dayton help him feel "close to home" verse a potential desire to play in Toronto close to his real family some day.

Can the Reds still sign him long term? Of course, but the cards are mostly in Joey's hands at this point. If Joey wants to be here long term, he'll get a deal done this offseason I have no doubt. If he wants the big money deal and the chance to play in New York where he knows the Yankees will have a championship caliber team around him every season, he'll work to get to his free agency years as soon as possible. If he wants to get back to Toronto, he'll get back there. Joey has reached the stage where any team would be foolish not to want his bat. Assuming he continues on the path he's set forth so far, and I see no reason why he won't continue to put up all-star type numbers going forward he can pretty much dicate where he wants to go.

The one thing the reds do have going for him, is that many places all ready have an all-star level 1st baseman. Howard is locked up for awhile in Philly, Texiera in New York, Ike Davis potentially w/ the Mets. Where will Pujols end up at? or the guy in San Diego (name escapes me at the moment), the dodgers should be good for awhile, etc.. The places that can offer more money w/o wipping out their payroll may not have the need that the reds do at 1st base, allowing for the perfect marriage of money and need

johngalt
07-06-2010, 11:12 AM
Hard to put a market value on him right now IMHO. But this is why the Reds are foolish; because 6 for 60 would have gotten it done a year ago right now. By them continuing to be cheap and not locking up young talent that window has closed. Don't understand their philosophy.

You're making two awfully large assumptions that 1.) the Reds haven't made an attempt and 2.) Votto would be receptive to it.

savafan
07-06-2010, 11:14 AM
What did you hear?

That Joey didn't enjoy the spotlight, that he was happy to be out of Canada and not seen as an elite Canadian baseball player playing in Canada. The guy also said that seeing Votto play back then, you wouldn't have guessed that he'd turn into the player that he's become now.

I think Joey likes being in an ensemble cast, but he wouldn't thrive with being "the man".

Unassisted
07-06-2010, 11:17 AM
I think Joey likes being in an ensemble cast, but he wouldn't thrive with being "the man".
If the spotlight is not what he wants, perhaps RedsZone shouldn't be trying so hard to get him into the ASG. :doh:

Ghosts of 1990
07-06-2010, 11:17 AM
That Joey didn't enjoy the spotlight, that he was happy to be out of Canada and not seen as an elite Canadian baseball player playing in Canada. The guy also said that seeing Votto play back then, you wouldn't have guessed that he'd turn into the player that he's become now.

I think Joey likes being in an ensemble cast, but he wouldn't thrive with being "the man".


Nice post. Thank you. I buy all of this. I think he needs to be part of an ensemble like you said, rather then 'the guy' who a team is completely built around; that's when you get the optimum value out of Votto like we're seeing now.

blumj
07-06-2010, 11:56 AM
I think the Morneau deal might be a semi-decent comp, even though he signed after his first arbitration year, for 6 years/$80M. Votto is going to wind up with better stats after this season than Morneau had the season he signed, but the extra year of service should just about make up the difference.

Ghosts of 1990
07-06-2010, 03:28 PM
I think the biggest question is: will the Reds offer Joey in the off-season something in the way of a long-term deal, or will they wait until the last minute?

redsfandan
07-06-2010, 03:43 PM
I don't see 6 for 60 as even close to getting it done. Try doubling that. This, IMHO, is the reason not to trade Alonso.
6years/$120M? I doubt it. Not when he's only up for arbitration for the first time after this season. Like blumj pointed out, they may have to pay more but probably not THAT much more. But, that's IF they get something done in the offseason and don't wait too much longer.

Here's some comps with the suggestion that he could end up with 5 years/$50M:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/04/discussion-joey-votto-extension-possibilities.html

Keep in mind that was 3 months ago so a good 2nd half after his strong 1st half, and finishing the season with 155+ games played, will only help him. I think it probably needs to have an average of more than $10M/yr but $20M/yr? Doubt it.

fearofpopvol1
07-06-2010, 03:47 PM
The team has to lock Votto up. And buying out his arb years at a higher rate should be able to buy them at least 2 extra years at a discounted price.

Where's Krivsky when you need him? Wasn't contracts his specialty?

HokieRed
07-06-2010, 07:59 PM
If the contracts of Harang, Arroyo, and Cordero are evidence of Krivsky's ability at contracts, I'm glad he's not here any longer. I think Votto will earn 120 million over the next six years; I think he's that good. Now he may make a deal on his arb years, but I think his agent would be very unwise to tell him to sign anything that would tie up his free agency years. An agent that would let him settle for 50 for 5 should be fired summarily. He's a lot better than that and it's beginning to show.

RedsManRick
07-06-2010, 09:21 PM
I could see something like:

2011 (arb year 1, age 27): $5.0M
2012 (arb year 2, age 28): $9.0M
2013 (arb year 3, age 29): $14.0M
2014 (FA year 1, age 30): $16.0M
2015 (FA year 2, age 31): $18.0M, club option w/ $4.0M buyout

That's 4/48 guaranteed, 5/62 if the option is exercised. I'd be surprised to see a deal any longer than that. It exposes the Reds too much and locks up Votto too far in to his decline phase to land a 2nd monster contract.

dfs
07-07-2010, 10:40 AM
Couple of things....

For their first large free agent deal, players have been known to cut a deal with the franchise that brought them up in order to stay in the organization and all that. Usually it's the second large contract a player signs where he tries to break the bank.

also..

Given the trends in recent salaries...It might be to the players advantage to take that back end loaded deal. 6 years is a LONG time. Sure the baseball economy could recover, but it's also possible that it won't.

Lastly....

It's a quibble, but he's never seen 600 plate appearances during a year. That's ever. When you start talking about cornerstone players, you want players that can stay healthy and in the lineup.

Ghosts of 1990
07-07-2010, 10:47 AM
Couple of things....

For their first large free agent deal, players have been known to cut a deal with the franchise that brought them up in order to stay in the organization and all that. Usually it's the second large contract a player signs where he tries to break the bank.

True, but this is Votto's one big deal. He won't be signing a contract at age 29 or 30 again like a Jay Bruce might or a Justin Upton did. This is that deal. He will know that.

fearofpopvol1
07-07-2010, 01:05 PM
If the contracts of Harang, Arroyo, and Cordero are evidence of Krivsky's ability at contracts, I'm glad he's not here any longer. I think Votto will earn 120 million over the next six years; I think he's that good. Now he may make a deal on his arb years, but I think his agent would be very unwise to tell him to sign anything that would tie up his free agency years. An agent that would let him settle for 50 for 5 should be fired summarily. He's a lot better than that and it's beginning to show.

How about Phillips? The Arroyo deal has been fine. He's earned his money. Same with Harang. Cordero wasn't a good contract, but even he produced well the last 2 years.

kaldaniels
07-07-2010, 01:33 PM
If the contracts of Harang, Arroyo, and Cordero are evidence of Krivsky's ability at contracts, I'm glad he's not here any longer. I think Votto will earn 120 million over the next six years; I think he's that good. Now he may make a deal on his arb years, but I think his agent would be very unwise to tell him to sign anything that would tie up his free agency years. An agent that would let him settle for 50 for 5 should be fired summarily. He's a lot better than that and it's beginning to show.

Under what scenario will Votto cash 120 million worth of paychecks in the next 6 years? With 3 Arb years left. No way. No how.

fearofpopvol1
07-07-2010, 01:47 PM
I could see something like:

2011 (arb year 1, age 27): $5.0M
2012 (arb year 2, age 28): $9.0M
2013 (arb year 3, age 29): $14.0M
2014 (FA year 1, age 30): $16.0M
2015 (FA year 2, age 31): $18.0M, club option w/ $4.0M buyout

That's 4/48 guaranteed, 5/62 if the option is exercised. I'd be surprised to see a deal any longer than that. It exposes the Reds too much and locks up Votto too far in to his decline phase to land a 2nd monster contract.

I think this is a great deal. Even if Votto left in '14 or '15, I'm not sure he would get vastly more than that. The only thing I'm not sure of is if he'd settle on those arb numbers. He may get more there by going to arb (think Ryan Howard).

Either way, I think the Reds have to be thinking about this and looking to do the deal as soon as possible.

HokieRed
07-07-2010, 04:48 PM
Under what scenario will Votto cash 120 million worth of paychecks in the next 6 years? With 3 Arb years left. No way. No how.

Depends on how his post-arb contract is structured. Figure may look high but it depends entirely on the total value of the deal he signs prior to the 2014 season--which is, I think, highly unlikely to be with the Cincinnati Reds, who will make the entirely sound conclusion that it's a mistake to spend that much of payroll on a single player, particularly at a position where it's possible to get value in a variety of ways and for much less.

kaldaniels
07-07-2010, 06:08 PM
Depends on how his post-arb contract is structured. Figure may look high but it depends entirely on the total value of the deal he signs prior to the 2014 season--which is, I think, highly unlikely to be with the Cincinnati Reds, who will make the entirely sound conclusion that it's a mistake to spend that much of payroll on a single player, particularly at a position where it's possible to get value in a variety of ways and for much less.

I'm just asking you to come up with numbers that will make Joey Votto 120 million over the next 6 years. One scenario is all I ask.

Homer Bailey
07-09-2010, 03:06 PM
Jayson Stark says Votto is his first half NL MVP.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=5364813


We're betting most Americans have heard and read more about Joey Votto in just the past week than they had in his entire career before now. But here at the Worldwide Leader, we can assure you that it isn't because we're trying to recruit him to star in a new reality show or anything. It's because he's the best player in baseball who'd managed to avoid nearly every radar screen in America before this. But Votto is more than merely the most deserving player left off the original All-Star rosters. He's also the most valuable player in his whole league so far. You want numbers? How 'bout these numbers: The guy leads the league in homers (22), on-base percentage (.417), slugging (.595) and OPS (1.012). And the more important the situation, the better he's been: .351 with men on base, .395 in the late innings of tight games, .379 from the seventh inning on, with 16 homers that have either tied games, put his team ahead, brought his team within a run or broken open a one-run game. But put those numbers aside for a second. The biggest reason this guy ekes out a tight MVP duel with Albert Pujols? Votto has been a culture changer for a team that hasn't won a postseason game in 20 years. "He comes to play," Braves manager Bobby Cox told Half-Year in Review. "He's a dirt player. He's a tough out. He's really grown on me." And, all of a sudden, he's been growing on the rest of the hemisphere, too.

jojo
07-09-2010, 03:09 PM
I think it's safe to say he's the cornerstone you build the franchise around. And we all know that many are/were wanting to hold off signing him to a LTC due to health (mental) concerns. But by waiting, he's made himself a front-runner for MVP.

So with that said, do you think the Reds will sign him thru the first couple of years of FA and can they? Do you want them to?

Discuss.

Is it too late?

I'd suggest the decision has been made pretty easy and such a deal ought to be one of the easiest things to work out provided Joey is inclined to go that route.

HokieRed
07-09-2010, 04:00 PM
Votto's age seems to me a factor in the way he'll likely think about this. RMR's contract has got him waiting until his coming 32 year old season to do a FA deal. Why would he do that rather than arranging it prior to his 30 year old season (end of arb)? Why, for a player of Votto's caliber, isn't it to his advantage to have as many years of FA as possible? There may be all kinds of "reasons" Votto would want to stay in Cinti.--I'd suggest we really know next to nothing about these. Looks to me like his agent should be advising him to play out his arb years in Cinti, then look for a long-term deal on the order of Howard's or Pujols's.

RedsManRick
07-09-2010, 04:06 PM
Votto's age seems to me a factor in the way he'll likely think about this. RMR's contract has got him waiting until his coming 32 year old season to do a FA deal. Why would he do that rather than arranging it prior to his 30 year old season (end of arb)? Why, for a player of Votto's caliber, isn't it to his advantage to have as many years of FA as possible? There may be all kinds of "reasons" Votto would want to stay in Cinti.--I'd suggest we really know next to nothing about these. Looks to me like his agent should be advising him to play out his arb years in Cinti, then look for a long-term deal on the order of Howard's or Pujols's.

The reason Votto does a contract now is because $48M in the bank is ~$47M more than he's made so far in his career. Every million you make is worth a little bit less than the one before it from a utility perspective. God forbid something happen to him, if he goes year to year, he's at risk. Or even if he goes Sean Casey and settles in to a lesser level of production. There is a lot of logic in giving up great potential to lock yourself in to the very good. The moment he puts ink on paper for a contract like that, his family is set for life. That's powerful stuff -- I imagine it's much easier for somebody on the outside to say it's worth the risk to go year-to-year.

If an agent's only job is to maximize career earnings, going through arb and then getting his deal is the way to go. But some players (might I suggest particularly ones prone to anxiety) truly do value the security, financially and otherwise, that comes with a long term deal.

Big Klu
07-09-2010, 10:44 PM
Jayson Stark says Votto is his first half NL MVP.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=5364813
We're betting most Americans have heard and read more about Joey Votto in just the past week than they had in his entire career before now. But here at the Worldwide Leader, we can assure you that it isn't because we're trying to recruit him to star in a new reality show or anything. It's because he's the best player in baseball who'd managed to avoid nearly every radar screen in America before this. But Votto is more than merely the most deserving player left off the original All-Star rosters. He's also the most valuable player in his whole league so far. You want numbers? How 'bout these numbers: The guy leads the league in homers (22), on-base percentage (.417), slugging (.595) and OPS (1.012). And the more important the situation, the better he's been: .351 with men on base, .395 in the late innings of tight games, .379 from the seventh inning on, with 16 homers that have either tied games, put his team ahead, brought his team within a run or broken open a one-run game. But put those numbers aside for a second. The biggest reason this guy ekes out a tight MVP duel with Albert Pujols? Votto has been a culture changer for a team that hasn't won a postseason game in 20 years. "He comes to play," Braves manager Bobby Cox told Half-Year in Review. "He's a dirt player. He's a tough out. He's really grown on me." And, all of a sudden, he's been growing on the rest of the hemisphere, too.

Didn't the Reds sweep three games from the Dodgers in 1995?

HokieRed
07-09-2010, 10:48 PM
The reason Votto does a contract now is because $48M in the bank is ~$47M more than he's made so far in his career. Every million you make is worth a little bit less than the one before it from a utility perspective. God forbid something happen to him, if he goes year to year, he's at risk. Or even if he goes Sean Casey and settles in to a lesser level of production. There is a lot of logic in giving up great potential to lock yourself in to the very good. The moment he puts ink on paper for a contract like that, his family is set for life. That's powerful stuff -- I imagine it's much easier for somebody on the outside to say it's worth the risk to go year-to-year.

If an agent's only job is to maximize career earnings, going through arb and then getting his deal is the way to go. But some players (might I suggest particularly ones prone to anxiety) truly do value the security, financially and otherwise, that comes with a long term deal.


I understand this, but it may undervalue him. I don't think there's any chance he becomes Sean Casey; more likely he maintains what he already is, something more like Albert Pujols.

RedsManRick
07-09-2010, 10:53 PM
I understand this, but it may undervalue him. I don't think there's any chance he becomes Sean Casey; more likely he maintains what he already is, something more like Albert Pujols.

So forget the Casey comp. That specific comparison is beside the point. Maybe he gets hit by a pitch. Maybe emotional issues flare up again. Maybe he gets in a car accident. Whatever. There are any number of scenarios where he doesn't continue on this trajectory. Signing a contract now takes the risk of that possibility completely off the table.

So many people get worked up about pushing the ceiling as high as possible. But security, which is a big component in happiness for many people, comes from having a high floor. As they say, a bird in the hand...

HokieRed
07-09-2010, 10:56 PM
So forget the Casey comp. That specific comparison is beside the point. Maybe he gets hit by a pitch. Maybe emotional issues flare up again. Maybe he gets in a car accident. Whatever. There are any number of scenarios where he doesn't continue on this trajectory. Signing a contract now takes the risk of that possibility completely off the table.

So many people get worked up about pushing the ceiling as high as possible. But security, which is a big component in happiness for many people, comes from having a high floor. As they say, a bird in the hand...

True enough, but I tend to think these decisions are almost always made with one thing in mind: $.