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Benihana
07-06-2010, 01:16 AM
We've all heard the rumors. We know who's available, and we have an idea of what those teams are looking for. So the question is now- you are the GM. What do you do?

I would first call Jack Z, and make the following offer:

Seattle gets: Alonso, Heisey, Boxberger
Cincinnati gets: Cliff Lee and Brandon League

I would be willing to slightly increase the offer, perhaps to even Alonso and Mesoraco (no Boxberger or Heisey), but not go much beyond that. If that didn't get it done, I'd turn to Arizona.

Arizona gets: Bailey, Wood, Alonso, and Cozart
Cincinnati gets: Dan Haren and Stephen Drew

Imagine going into the postseason with Haren headlining the rotation, while going into the next three years with a rotation of:

1. Haren
2. Cueto
3. Leake
4. Volquez
5. Chapman

and a lineup of

2B Phillips
SS Drew
1B Votto
3B Rolen
RF Bruce
LF Gomes/Francisco
CF Stubbs
C Hanigan/Mesoraco

Wow. I'd consider adding Heisey to that deal if it got it done, especially if the D'backs add Heilman. Thoughts?

Marc D
07-06-2010, 02:39 AM
We've all heard the rumors. We know who's available, and we have an idea of what those teams are looking for. So the question is now- you are the GM. What do you do?

I would first call Jack Z, and make the following offer:

Seattle gets: Alonso, Heisey, Boxberger
Cincinnati gets: Cliff Lee and Brandon League

I would be willing to slightly increase the offer, perhaps to even Alonso and Mesoraco (no Boxberger or Heisey), but not go much beyond that. If that didn't get it done, I'd turn to Arizona.

Arizona gets: Bailey, Wood, Alonso, and Cozart
Cincinnati gets: Dan Haren and Stephen Drew

Imagine going into the postseason with Haren headlining the rotation, while going into the next three years with a rotation of:

1. Haren
2. Cueto
3. Leake
4. Volquez
5. Chapman

and a lineup of

2B Phillips
SS Drew
1B Votto
3B Rolen
RF Bruce
LF Gomes/Francisco
CF Stubbs
C Hanigan/Mesoraco

Wow. I'd consider adding Heisey to that deal if it got it done, especially if the D'backs add Heilman. Thoughts?


For that same offer of prospects to Arizona I'd ask for Young and take a flyer on Webb to see what the reaction was. If we were close on a big deal like that from Arizona I'd pull the trigger on it before anyone else could set the market on a deal for Lee.If it took more I'd probably still do it. Haren and Drew put us over the top in 2010 and beyond imo.

The upside on a grab for Webb is he's probably not going to show much the last half of this year but you'd get to know from the inside if he was worth signing cheaply for a bigger 2011.

Options on Harang and Arroyo plus adding Haren and maybe Webb to the mix along with all the other arms would give us some real flexibility and pitching depth to work from to continue to improve after this year.

Captain Hook
07-06-2010, 02:48 AM
I'd say we are good enough to win the division already so we're not really that desperate to do anything but if anyone want's to make a deal we'll listen to what you want to offer us and then we'll go from there.

buckeyenut
07-06-2010, 08:53 AM
The deal I would go after, first and foremost, is Oswalt and Lindstrom for Harang, Heisey, Frazier, Francisco, Maloney or something along those lines.

Scrap Irony
07-06-2010, 11:03 AM
Ty Wiggington for Matt Maloney and Zach DiDi Gregorius.
Wiggington offers added major league depth at 3B, 1B, and the corner OF spots. This means he could take Cairo's spot, if need be. He's also an adept PH/ DH.

Marlon Byrd for Henry Rodgriguez and Brad Boxberger.
Byrd can play any of the three OF spots well and is also an outstanding bench player/ PH. He could take the spot of Nix and would keep Matthews in AAA so that Redszone wouldn't blow completely up.

Yonder Alonso and Travis Wood for Roy Oswalt.
I'd prefer Lee, but Minnesota already seems to have made that happen, so I'd turn to the second-best pitcher on the list. He's used to pitching in a small bandbox and in big games. Both Alonso and Wood are blocked by better players. Since the Reds would take on all Oswalt's salary, this package is probably overpaying, but Houston may not want to deal within the division.

The starting lineup wouldn't be affected all that much, but the bench and rotation would be much improved. The 40-man and 25-man rosters would stay even as well.

membengal
07-06-2010, 11:04 AM
I still push back the notion that Wood is blocked.

Homer Bailey
07-06-2010, 11:20 AM
I still push back the notion that Wood is blocked.

Hey, this is a family board. :D

nemesis
07-06-2010, 12:18 PM
Since were playing hypothetical...


Trade Alonso, Bailey and Burton to Arizona for Haren.

Trade Francisco, Dorn, Cozart, and DRH to Seattle, Harang, Valiquette, PTBNL (Dickerson), Gregorious and Cash to the Mets, Seattle sends Lopez to NY Mets, NY Mets sends Tejada, Martinez and Carter to the Reds.

Trade Fellhauser and Fisher to KC for Farnsworth and Cash.

DFA Nix (put back in AAA)
Send Smith to AAA to Close.


2010

Phillips
Cabrera
Votto
Rolen
Gomes
Bruce
Stubbs
Hanigan

Carter
Cairo
Hernandez
Janish
Heisey

Haren
Arroyo
Cueto
Harang
Volquez/Leake/Bailey/Wood

Owings
Ondrusek
Bray
Massett
Rhodes
Farnsworth
Cordero

2011 Off season...

Trade Tejada, Sappelt and Ondrusek for Drew
Re-Sign Rhodes for 2 Mil.
Decline Arroyo, Harang, Cabrera, Hernandez's options
Expiring contracts of Lincoln, Miles, Cairo
Sign Votto, Bruce and Cueto to LTD.
Trade Wood, Boxberger, Cordero and cash (difference between contract's) for Soria.


2011 Line-Up:

Phillips
Drew
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
Gomes
Stubbs
Hanigan

Castillo (C/UT)
Carter (1B/COF)
Janish (IF)
Heisey (CF/OF)
Sutton (IF)

Rotation:

Haren
Cueto
Volquez
Leake
Chapman

Bullpen:

Owings
Farnsworth
Bray
Smith
Rhodes
Massett
Soria

Martinez, Nix, Miller, Mez, Valakia, Balentien, Henry and Frazier in AAA to start the year.
Have Grandel, Soto, Yorman, H. Rodriguez, Hamilton, Arias, Duran still in System.
Klinker, LeCure and Maloney AAA Rotation depth.
Del Rosario, Delgado, Joseph and Krebs as Bullpen depth.

2012

Phiilps
Drew
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
Stubbs
Martinez (LF)
Mez

Frazier
Hanigan
Carter
Janish
Heisey

Cueto
Volquez
Leake
Chapman
Klinker

TRF
07-06-2010, 12:31 PM
If I'm AZ, I want two SP's for Haren. IMO the price for Haren is easily as high as it is for Lee because of his contract. He's not a rental so they would want more. I bet they ask for Leake first and foremost.

My offer would be Bailey, Wood, and Valliquette/Del Rosario/Ondrusek for Haren. They can keep Drew as I think he's waaaaay overrated. in what amounts to just under 4 full seasons this is his line: .270 .327 .441 .768 I guess that's ok, but I want just a bit more. There just isn't a single thing that Drew does that is exceptional.

Mario-Rijo
07-06-2010, 12:35 PM
Chris Valaika, Maloney/Wood & Juan Francisco to KCR for David DeJesus & Alberto Callaspo

I have high hopes everything else will work itself out eventually, although Masset is really starting to worry me. But the offense will need a boost at the top eventually and DeJesus (platooning with Gomes, Stubbs and Heisey in LF and CF) will help with that. Callaspo improves our IF bench depth. He can play 2B/3B/SS and hits well from both sides of the plate. Frankly at this point Callaspo might be better than OCab but that may work itself out if OCab needs some time on the shelf.

Nix sent to Louisville if he accepts and released if not.
Janish to Louisville to get regular playing time at 2B/SS (taking Valiaka's spot)
Burton up and Masset to Louisville (to regain his confidence)

PuffyPig
07-06-2010, 12:35 PM
I'd look to get Haren instead of Lee due to length of contract.

I'd be reluctant to move Meso, catchers are hard to find, especially ones with plate discipline, power and defense. I'd rank him just behind Chapman in guys I want to move.

I'd rather keep Wood too, he's going to provide some cheap pretty good pitching I would imagine. But not untouchable.

I'd look to move Alonso, Wood and another prospect to Arizona for Haren.

Kc61
07-06-2010, 12:41 PM
I think the entire focus should be on a starting pitcher. The bullpen has been improved from within. The bench has performed well. The starting lineup is good -- don't underestimate Cabrera who is a winning player and who is playing better defensively than earlier in the season.

By far the most important issue is that the Reds don't have a starting pitcher who other teams fear. Somebody you can match up against a Carpenter or Wainright and have confidence can win. I think such a new pitcher is important for key stretch games and hopefully playoffs.

This is the gap. Trade Alonso, Wood, and Valiquette or some similar combination and get Haren or even a rental.

A good bullpenner would also help, but is now less of an urgent need in my view.

Mario-Rijo
07-06-2010, 12:57 PM
If I'm AZ, I want two SP's for Haren. IMO the price for Haren is easily as high as it is for Lee because of his contract. He's not a rental so they would want more. I bet they ask for Leake first and foremost.

My offer would be Bailey, Wood, and Valliquette/Del Rosario/Ondrusek for Haren. They can keep Drew as I think he's waaaaay overrated. in what amounts to just under 4 full seasons this is his line: .270 .327 .441 .768 I guess that's ok, but I want just a bit more. There just isn't a single thing that Drew does that is exceptional.

They can't have Leake if I'm GM, Leake might outpitch Haren in GABP or be just as good while making the minimum over the next few years.

As far as Drew goes yeah he is a bit overrated but I don't have a big problem with his production. But at the price he will likely demand with Boras as his agent (and given JD Drews penchant for wanting top dollar) I'd probably pass given the likely asking price for him.

Mario-Rijo
07-06-2010, 01:00 PM
I think the entire focus should be on a starting pitcher. The bullpen has been improved from within. The bench has performed well. The starting lineup is good -- don't underestimate Cabrera who is a winning player and who is playing better defensively than earlier in the season.

By far the most important issue is that the Reds don't have a starting pitcher who other teams fear. Somebody you can match up against a Carpenter or Wainright and have confidence can win. I think such a new pitcher is important for key stretch games and hopefully playoffs.

This is the gap. Trade Alonso, Wood, and Valiquette or some similar combination and get Haren or even a rental.

A good bullpenner would also help, but is now less of an urgent need in my view.

So you expect the offense to continue to play well the rest of the year (and without injuries) and the bench is OK? I don't think the entire focus should be on acquiring an ace though most of it is a fair statement.

Kc61
07-06-2010, 01:10 PM
So you expect the offense to continue to play well the rest of the year (and without injuries) and the bench is OK? I don't think the entire focus should be on acquiring an ace though most of it is a fair statement.

The team has a large lead in many key offensive categories in the NL. I really don't see any need to tinker with the position players on this club right now.

Yes, for a star left fielder or shortstop, I would deal, but I wouldn't break up the chemistry for merely a possible incremental upgrade. The offense and defense are clicking pretty well with a good mixture of veterans and young players. Even if the offense cools off a bit, it has outperformed any expectations by a mile.

IMO, a starting staff of Arroyo, Harang, Cueto, Leake, and Volquez off injury may come up short. This is the area of need.

And yes, I think the bench is ok. Heisey, Nix, backed by Matthews and eventually Dickerson in the outfield. Janish and Cairo in the infield. I think Cozart or Valaika could back up in the infield if necessary. I think Dorn, Francisco or Alonso could come off the bench to hit if there's an injury. Corky provides catching depth.

jojo
07-06-2010, 01:20 PM
Seattle isn't likely to do anything that weakens their 25 man roster for 2011. It seems unlikely that League would be dealt in a deal that doesn't have a component that significantly improves 2011's roster.


Also, FWIW, concerning Lee, it seems pretty credible that the bar has been set at Ramos/Hicks concerning the threshhold that needs to be beat.

lollipopcurve
07-06-2010, 01:34 PM
Also, FWIW, concerning Lee, it seems pretty credible that the bar has been set at Ramos/Hicks concerning the threshhold that needs to be beat.

Who knows.

The longer they hold onto him, the less value he has, one would think.

TRF
07-06-2010, 02:19 PM
Who knows.

The longer they hold onto him, the less value he has, one would think.

I think the opposite. The longer they hold him the more desperate the contenders will be. drop a game or two and its easy to panic.

Branyan has been hot the week he's been back in Seattle, and Bedard is supposed to come off the shelf soon. If he comes back healthy what are the odds the M's keep Lee and take the picks instead?

lollipopcurve
07-06-2010, 02:29 PM
I think the opposite. The longer they hold him the more desperate the contenders will be. drop a game or two and its easy to panic.

Every start Lee takes for the Mariners, that's one less he takes for his new team, a diminution in his value to that team. There's also risk for the Mariners in that Lee may have a rotten outing while he's still with them, or that an interested team may go on a losing streak and begin to doubt whether they want to make a big move.

Lee's probably got 5-6 starts before the deadline -- that makes him worth more now than he will be on 7/31, and I think all the teams involved recognize that, generally. Doesn't mean a couple teams won't compete for him hard down to the wire, but it's also reasonable to think teams will say they're freezing their offers at some point, or basing offers on getting Lee before he pitches again.

bucksfan2
07-06-2010, 02:34 PM
Every start Lee takes for the Mariners, that's one less he takes for his new team, a diminution in his value to that team. There's also risk for the Mariners in that Lee may have a rotten outing while he's still with them, or that an interested team may go on a losing streak and begin to doubt whether they want to make a big move.

Lee's probably got 5-6 starts before the deadline -- that makes him worth more now than he will be on 7/31, and I think all the teams involved recognize that, generally. Doesn't mean a couple teams won't compete for him hard down to the wire, but it's also reasonable to think teams will say they're freezing their offers at some point, or basing offers on getting Lee before he pitches again.

I agree with you for the most part. The more starts Lee gives another team the higher his value is. However the number of teams in the Lee sweepstakes could up the ante even if the trade comes at the deadline.

Its a game the Mariners need to get right, if they hold out they better hope that the market is still hot after Lee. But if guys like Oswalt, Haren, and Carmona all get moved to contending teams the market for Lee may diminish because there aren't as many teams in the sweepstakes.

TRF
07-06-2010, 02:34 PM
I think you have to tie in how close the race is in regards to the team he's traded to. if it goes to the deadline and the division leaders only have a 1 game lead, you are potentially looking at 10-12 suiters. More teams might get in the race to acquire him.

Its a tough read, so you could be right about his value. If I'm the M's GM, I publicly state that I'd have to be bowled over. Someone just might bite.

lollipopcurve
07-06-2010, 02:38 PM
I agree with you for the most part. The more starts Lee gives another team the higher his value is. However the number of teams in the Lee sweepstakes could up the ante even if the trade comes at the deadline.

Its a game the Mariners need to get right, if they hold out they better hope that the market is still hot after Lee. But if guys like Oswalt, Haren, and Carmona all get moved to contending teams the market for Lee may diminish because there aren't as many teams in the sweepstakes.

Good points. It's a very interesting midsummer market this year, and not just because the Reds are contending. All the options out there could mean teams try to play other teams off each other until nothing gets resolved, or it could mean a few big deals. We shall see.

TRF
07-06-2010, 02:52 PM
It's a three team race in the AL East and AL Central. A two team race in the AL West, but I doubt a deal can be done with the Rangers. The Angels.... maybe. Kazmir has been abysmal, and Lee makes them the best rotation in the division by far. I think the Angels need more offense though.

The NL east is still a 3 team race. Lee isn't going back to Philadelphia. The Mets have the money and a frustrated fanbase. The Braves are in a youth movement, and its working. Here is why I think the NL East is problematic: The Nationals. Yes, the last place Nationals. Good bullpen and they are about a month and a half away from getting Zimmermann back. They are going to be a huge spoiler in a division with no easy wins.

The NL West is a 3 team race, barely. The Padres don't need him, they need another bat. The Dodgers and Rockies however could use the boost in the rotation. If the Dodgers got Lee, I think they could catch the Pads.

Add in both the Reds and Cardinals and the potential market is pretty big. As noted, it diminishes if Haren, Oswalt et al get dealt.

jojo
07-06-2010, 03:06 PM
Every start Lee takes for the Mariners, that's one less he takes for his new team, a diminution in his value to that team. There's also risk for the Mariners in that Lee may have a rotten outing while he's still with them, or that an interested team may go on a losing streak and begin to doubt whether they want to make a big move.

Lee's probably got 5-6 starts before the deadline -- that makes him worth more now than he will be on 7/31, and I think all the teams involved recognize that, generally. Doesn't mean a couple teams won't compete for him hard down to the wire, but it's also reasonable to think teams will say they're freezing their offers at some point, or basing offers on getting Lee before he pitches again.

It depends upon how many teams jump in or out.... Lee's shelf life isn't as certain as the expiration date on milk... a few less starts probably aren't going to swing the price dramatically lower.... it could raise it though if say the Reds seriously jump in because they decide not to bank on Volquez. A team like the Yanks are probably already assuming the playoffs so they're banking on post season starts. The longer this goes on, it probably just means a deal is more likely to involve multiple teams.

nemesis
07-06-2010, 03:16 PM
It's a three team race in the AL East and AL Central. A two team race in the AL West, but I doubt a deal can be done with the Rangers. The Angels.... maybe. Kazmir has been abysmal, and Lee makes them the best rotation in the division by far. I think the Angels need more offense though.

The NL east is still a 3 team race. Lee isn't going back to Philadelphia. The Mets have the money and a frustrated fanbase. The Braves are in a youth movement, and its working. Here is why I think the NL East is problematic: The Nationals. Yes, the last place Nationals. Good bullpen and they are about a month and a half away from getting Zimmermann back. They are going to be a huge spoiler in a division with no easy wins.

The NL West is a 3 team race, barely. The Padres don't need him, they need another bat. The Dodgers and Rockies however could use the boost in the rotation. If the Dodgers got Lee, I think they could catch the Pads.

Add in both the Reds and Cardinals and the potential market is pretty big. As noted, it diminishes if Haren, Oswalt et al get dealt.

Excellent Analysis.

Even though we are contenders, I wouldn't be opposed to moving Harang, Cash and parts to the Mets for Martinez if the Reds acquire Lee, Haren, Carmona or Oswalt.

Martinez, just 21 is blocked behind Bay and Beltran's big unmovable contracts, Pagan's productivity, Francouer and Carter. They have a need at starter and are deeply cash strapped as a franchise. Harang may not have a lot of value, but, to the right team for free, (aka we send Cash to cover) he could be an attractive option. There are 3 teams in this boat. LAD, Texas and the Mets. Texas isn't a good fit. He'd get bombed in The Ball Park at Arlington. The Dodger thing has been rumored on and off for a couple years so I feel if it was going to get done it would have by now. The Mets fit. The deep OF would play really well for his FB tendencies.

Take away his one horrific start in Florida (4 Inn 10 H 8 ER), his road ERA would be 3.86 over 5 starts vs 4.74 at home in 11 starts. That should bode well to any team looking for a good #3 or #4 Starter. He'd be the #5 in NY (Santana, Pelfrey, Dickey, Niese, Harang) so there wouldn't be much media pressure going in. Martinez could be a chip going to Seattle for Lee. Martinez and Alonso is an awful nice looking package for Lee. Throw in Bailey and Haren and Carmona would be on the table.

bucksfan2
07-06-2010, 03:26 PM
It depends upon how many teams jump in or out.... Lee's shelf life isn't as certain as the expiration date on milk... a few less starts probably aren't going to swing the price dramatically lower.... it could raise it though if say the Reds seriously jump in because they decide not to bank on Volquez. A team like the Yanks are probably already assuming the playoffs so they're banking on post season starts. The longer this goes on, it probably just means a deal is more likely to involve multiple teams.

I don't know if the Yanks are thinking that right now. They are in a 3 team race in the AL East and it isn't all that absurd that the Yanks could wind up 3rd.

fearofpopvol1
07-06-2010, 03:42 PM
Seattle isn't likely to do anything that weakens their 25 man roster for 2011. It seems unlikely that League would be dealt in a deal that doesn't have a component that significantly improves 2011's roster.


Also, FWIW, concerning Lee, it seems pretty credible that the bar has been set at Ramos/Hicks concerning the threshhold that needs to be beat.

So who would the Reds need to trade to get it done? Alonso is obvious. Would Alonso and Wood be enough? Alonso, Wood and Heisey?

Whatever happens, I just hope the Reds leave Mesoraco out of the deal. I would trade pretty much anyone else not named Chapman.

TRF
07-06-2010, 03:49 PM
I consider Yorman Rodriguez untouchable. If Lee agreed to an extension (he won't) I'd include him.

fearofpopvol1
07-06-2010, 04:13 PM
I consider Yorman Rodriguez untouchable. If Lee agreed to an extension (he won't) I'd include him.

He's the only other one I wouldn't trade, but I didn't name him because I didn't think the Ms would be interested. I'm thinking they want players that are close(r) to the Show.

TRF
07-06-2010, 04:19 PM
He's the only other one I wouldn't trade, but I didn't name him because I didn't think the Ms would be interested. I'm thinking they want players that are close(r) to the Show.

Probably so, but before he got dinged up a bit at Billings he was on quite a tear leading many offensive categories.

And he hasn't turned 18 yet.

Sea Ray
07-07-2010, 09:24 AM
I don't want to see Wood included in any deal. He's now a part of our rotation and it does us no good to drop a starter in a trade for another.

I also don't think this is the year to empty the farm system.

jojo
07-07-2010, 09:37 AM
So who would the Reds need to trade to get it done? Alonso is obvious. Would Alonso and Wood be enough? Alonso, Wood and Heisey?

Whatever happens, I just hope the Reds leave Mesoraco out of the deal. I would trade pretty much anyone else not named Chapman.

I don't think Alonso and Wood trump Ramos/Hicks.

TheNext44
07-07-2010, 03:45 PM
I don't think Alonso and Wood trump Ramos/Hicks.

Hicks is clearly the best prospect that so far has been mentioned in Lee deals. It would be hard to top any offer with him in, talent wise. But the Reds and the Rays could offer more talent that could help the M's next year. It will all depend on which way the M's want to go.

buckeyenut
07-07-2010, 08:51 PM
The more I watch Gomes out in LF, the more I'd really like to find a bigtime bat for LF.

Sea Ray
07-07-2010, 09:49 PM
Tonight is a good example of the fact that Chris Heisey is helping this team win games in 2010. In fact if you look at most deadline deals, it rarely includes players on the 25 man roster for the contending team. I'd be very hesitant to include Heisey or Wood in a deal