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RedsManRick
07-09-2010, 05:45 PM
Word.

Hopefully, if the Reds get Lee, Walt minimized what he sent them.

At this point, I'm guessing the package the M's want is something like Alonso, Wood, and Mesoraco.

The Operator
07-09-2010, 05:45 PM
I still think the actual deal will be a lot smaller than these constantly-racheted-up deals being reported now.

Indeed.

That Yankees rumor has to have been false or it wouldn't have fell through, unless the Yankees were the ones to back out.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 05:46 PM
Let's face it: the M's don't have nearly the leverage that many of these reported deals are suggesting they do. No one--not even the Yankees (especially not the Yankees?)--are going to empty the cupboard. No reason.

It's going to boil down to which principal the M's like most.

CarolinaRedleg
07-09-2010, 05:47 PM
I'll take a championship this year, competitive next year and one or two lean years to win now. It sure beats waiting 20 years.

And, what's not to say a championship now, competitive next year, and revived enthusiasm doesn't turn Cincy into a destination?

Brutus
07-09-2010, 05:48 PM
I'm thinking the M's only used the reported Yankees package to A) expedite the process and B) up the asking price of other suitors.

nate
07-09-2010, 05:49 PM
At this point, I'm guessing the package the M's want is something like Alonso, Wood, and Mesoraco.

I have no way to back it up but my gut tells me Walt can get it done for less.

savafan
07-09-2010, 05:49 PM
And, what's not to say a championship now, competitive next year, and revived enthusiasm doesn't turn Cincy into a destination?

I like the way you think! :thumbup:

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 05:49 PM
I have no way to back it up but my gut tells me Walt can get it done for less.

Me too. No way three big principals go in a deal for a rental.

osuceltic
07-09-2010, 05:50 PM
I'm stunned by the amount of angst some are having over giving up prospects who wouldn't have a role in Cincinnati not only this season, but next season. Mesoraco wouldn't reach Cincy until 2012 at the earliest. Alonso ... never, with Votto around. We're talking an eternity when it comes to professional sports. And neither of these guys are Griffey-like prospects. Or even Bruce-like prospects. We have anti-trade guys comparing Mesoraco to Jason Freaking LaRue.

We could offer Mesoraco, Alonso, Wood and Francisco -- a huge haul for the M's -- and the 2011 and 2012 teams would be unaffected.

Last year at this time, no one would have given up Todd Frazier. Now, he has little or no value. Zack Stewart is ... meh. We waited years for Edwin Encarnacion to become something he's never going to be.

People ... it's time to go for it.

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2010, 05:50 PM
I still think the actual deal will be a lot smaller than these constantly-racheted-up deals being reported now.

I think the Rangers would part with Smoak and he's a legitimate prospect and has more value than Alonso. The Reds would have to up the ante.

bucksfan2
07-09-2010, 05:51 PM
I'm thinking the M's only used the reported Yankees package to A) expedite the process and B) up the asking price of other suitors.

I think you are correct.

Walt has been around long enough to know not to get stupid. He isn't going to empty the system in order to get Lee. I am sure if the Reds do get Lee the package will be nice, but hardly as system blowing as many people are suspecting.

FWIW it will probably be worth more than what the Reds paid for Rolen so get ready for Stewart 2.0!

The Operator
07-09-2010, 05:51 PM
And, what's not to say a championship now, competitive next year, and revived enthusiasm doesn't turn Cincy into a destination?

Exactly. A few years of winning and being competitive can do wonders for a baseball town that lost its way. Philly and Detroit are perfect examples.

The Reds don't have quite the metro area to draw from, but if The Reds do end up going to the postseason this year and can be competitive for a while, not only will you see more and more fans in the seats - but you'll see more players look at The Reds as more than just a backup or a team to leverage a better offer from their ideal destination.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 05:53 PM
I think the Rangers would part with Smoak and he's a legitimate prospect and has more value than Alonso. The Reds would have to up the ante.

A principal of Alonso and a solid sweetener likely beats a Rangers deal. Alonso and Mesorasco certainly beats it.

kbrake
07-09-2010, 05:54 PM
A principal of Alonso and a solid sweetener likely beats a Rangers deal. Alonso and Mesorasco certainly beats it.

You think Alonso centered deal beats Smoak centered deal? Just curious I don't follow prospects as much as most of you here.

dougdirt
07-09-2010, 05:54 PM
Go Alonso, Francisco and Frazier. Add in a reliever like Valiquette if you have to. I want no part of letting Devin Mesoraco be traded.

nemesis
07-09-2010, 05:55 PM
Go Alonso, Francisco and Frazier. Add in a reliever like Valiquette if you have to. I want no part of letting Devin Mesoraco be traded.

+1,000,000

savafan
07-09-2010, 05:55 PM
Go Alonso, Francisco and Frazier. Add in a reliever like Valiquette if you have to. I want no part of letting Devin Mesoraco be traded.

Darth Hanigan finds your lack of faith disturbing.

kbrake
07-09-2010, 05:56 PM
Go Alonso, Francisco and Frazier. Add in a reliever like Valiquette if you have to. I want no part of letting Devin Mesoraco be traded.

If that gets us Lee I'm doing back flips down the road. And I don't even know how to do back flips. If we keep Wood, Mes, and Heisey I'd be thrilled.

dougdirt
07-09-2010, 05:56 PM
Darth Hanigan finds your lack of faith disturbing.

I have no idea what that is supposed to mean...

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 05:56 PM
You think Alonso centered deal beats Smoak centered deal? Just curious I don't follow prospects as much as most of you here.

I think the Reds have a lot of nice deal-sweetener--bullpen arms, for instance or Heisey--that could trump a Smoak + vanilla stuff deal.

savafan
07-09-2010, 05:57 PM
Joelsherman1 i have learned deal done with #Rangers, Smoak and 3 others for Lee and reliever Mark Lowe #Rangers, #Mariners

savafan
07-09-2010, 05:59 PM
I have no idea what that is supposed to mean...

Obviously not a Star Wars fan...

nemesis
07-09-2010, 06:01 PM
Obviously not a Star Wars fan...

If it makes you feel better I LOL'd and made my girlfriend jump... :thumbup:

Tom Servo
07-09-2010, 06:01 PM
So in 2003 the broke Expos couldn't call up minor leaguers on their expanded rosters due to budgetary reasons, but the bankrupt Rangers can trade for pricey Cliff Lee?

Whatever.

RichRed
07-09-2010, 06:03 PM
So in 2003 the broke Expos couldn't call up minor leaguers on their expanded rosters due to budgetary reasons, but the bankrupt Rangers can trade for pricey Cliff Lee?

Whatever.

Bud doesn't want Nolan Ryan to give him the Robin Ventura treatment.

nemesis
07-09-2010, 06:03 PM
So in 2003 the broke Expos couldn't call up minor leaguers on their expanded rosters due to budgetary reasons, but the bankrupt Rangers can trade for pricey Cliff Lee?

Whatever.

Because the Expos were out of a pennant race. Texas is firmly in one and MLB wants the playing field to be fair for all contenders. :rolleyes: Lotta big TV markets down there ya know....

dougdirt
07-09-2010, 06:04 PM
Obviously not a Star Wars fan...

Never seen any of them. My Star Wars knowledge comes from Family Guy stuff.

RedLegSuperStar
07-09-2010, 06:04 PM
that was fun while it lasted

savafan
07-09-2010, 06:04 PM
So in 2003 the broke Expos couldn't call up minor leaguers on their expanded rosters due to budgetary reasons, but the bankrupt Rangers can trade for pricey Cliff Lee?

Whatever.

Plus Lowe's making $1,150,000 this year

mdccclxix
07-09-2010, 06:05 PM
I'm thinking this is a balance of power play within the AL West. Imagine if in 2006 we could have traded, say Harang as a rental for a player like Colby Rasmus and two others. Not perfect example, but this is a catbird seat for Seattle. Wow!

kbrake
07-09-2010, 06:07 PM
Seattle sending cash with him.

guttle11
07-09-2010, 06:07 PM
I believe the Mariners are throwing in some money.

And hey, if the Rangers see a revenue boost to make up for Lee's added contract, no one in baseball should care. They should be allowed to deal if it makes financial sense. You can't handcuff them because the former/outgoing owner is a putz with finances.

savafan
07-09-2010, 06:07 PM
FrankiePiliere Lee to the Rangers is happening my sources say. Working on the names involved aside from Smoak.


So, it's a done deal, but they're still trying to figure out what players to include besides Smoak...

dougdirt
07-09-2010, 06:08 PM
FrankiePiliere Lee to the Rangers is happening my sources say. Working on the names involved aside from Smoak.


So, it's a done deal, but they're still trying to figure out what players to include besides Smoak...

He is trying to figure them out, not the teams.

Brutus
07-09-2010, 06:09 PM
I believe the Mariners are throwing in some money.

And hey, if the Rangers see a revenue boost to make up for Lee's added contract, no one in baseball should care. They should be allowed to deal if it makes financial sense. You can't handcuff them because the former/outgoing owner is a putz with finances.

It depends on how much, but I do think competitors have every right to complain if MLB allows any significant payroll to be added on their dime.

mdccclxix
07-09-2010, 06:09 PM
Not seeing that Smoak is a better prospect than Alonso, so I wonder what other players the M's are getting.

savafan
07-09-2010, 06:09 PM
He is trying to figure them out, not the teams.

That makes more sense :D

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 06:09 PM
So, it's a done deal, but they're still trying to figure out what players to include besides Smoak...

The bottom line is that Smoak is the principal they want. Pretty great deal for Texas though. They get an ace, they get money, and they get picks. All for one principal and some stuff in the back of the garage.

Just as I said: MUCH smaller deal than the hype machine reported.

RedLegSuperStar
07-09-2010, 06:10 PM
it's funny cause Lowe is out for the season

nemesis
07-09-2010, 06:11 PM
Still have Chris Davis. So I guess it is an all in move for Texas. The new owner might wanna make some management changes...

savafan
07-09-2010, 06:11 PM
The bottom line is that Smoak is the principal they want. Pretty great deal for Texas though. They get an ace, they get money, and they get picks. All for one principal and some stuff in the back of the garage.

Just as I said: MUCH smaller deal than the hype machine reported.

I think the Yanks offer was better.

Brutus
07-09-2010, 06:11 PM
Not seeing that Smoak is a better prospect than Alonso, so I wonder what other players the M's are getting.

Smoak is a heck of a defensive first baseman -- something Alonso is not. I think their bats are comparable from a futures grade standpoint, but I could see why Smoak is a hotter commodity.

Tom Servo
07-09-2010, 06:11 PM
Because the Expos were out of a pennant race. Texas is firmly in one and MLB wants the playing field to be fair for all contenders. :rolleyes: Lotta big TV markets down there ya know....
Expos were actually tied for the Wild Card lead right at the end of August that year.

KronoRed
07-09-2010, 06:12 PM
Expos were actually tied for the Wild Card lead right at the end of August that year.

MLB wanted the Expos to move, hope they do the same in a few years to the Blue Jays :D

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 06:13 PM
I think the Yanks offer was better.

Considerably. If it ever really existed...

mdccclxix
07-09-2010, 06:13 PM
Smoak is a heck of a defensive first baseman -- something Alonso is not. I think their bats are comparable from a futures grade standpoint, but I could see why Smoak is a hotter commodity.

Maybe that hamate injury will be a blessing in disguise, but right now it's having a greater effect than I would have wanted or foreseen.

savafan
07-09-2010, 06:13 PM
Buster_ESPN Heard this: SEA is kicking in $2.5 million in order to help offset the $4 million owed to Lee. In return, Texas gave a better package (more) of prospects besides Smoak

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 06:14 PM
Buster_ESPN Heard this: SEA is kicking in $2.5 million in order to help offset the $4 million owed to Lee. In return, Texas gave a better package (more) of prospects besides Smoak

"More" as in more Ed Yarnells thrown into the swag bag. Seattle just got hosed.

Tom Servo
07-09-2010, 06:14 PM
I'd be a bit nervous as a Rangers fan though. I know Lee is pretty much a sure thing, but what if Smoak turns into another Adrian Gonzalez?

dougdirt
07-09-2010, 06:14 PM
Maybe the Mariners eat the money for a package of Smoak, Martin Perez and a third player?

Partially correct. Go me. :thumbup:

reds44
07-09-2010, 06:15 PM
Well crap.

kbrake
07-09-2010, 06:16 PM
This day has been too up and down, I'm exhausted. Now have to get ready for a game thread. Good thing the break is right around the corner.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 06:17 PM
"Say, Mike, we were entertaining the thought of you going 190-200 innings this season. Think you got it in ya?"

"Sure, coach."

savafan
07-09-2010, 06:17 PM
Texas has called a 5 PM press conference their time, Justin Smoak just left a meeting, and the clubhouse is closed to the media.

The Operator
07-09-2010, 06:18 PM
I can't believe THAT is the deal that ended up happening.

Huh.

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2010, 06:18 PM
As disappointing as it is to not land Lee, I agree with whoever said that Walt does not have a history of overpaying in big trades. Perhaps the Reds could have trumped the Rangers, but we don't know what that package would have required and perhaps Walt thought that package was too much. Further, as FCB suggested, Smoak was probably the principle player they wanted. It sucks, but it is what it is.

I'm at peace with the situation. I just hope Walt is looking at other creative ways to bolster the pitching staff. It needs work.

The Operator
07-09-2010, 06:20 PM
Roy Oswalt anyone?

I'd like him more than Haren. Maybe the Astros will deal within the division. The Mariners just did.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 06:22 PM
I just hope Walt is looking at other creative ways to bolster the pitching staff. It needs work.

This pitching staff can't win this team the division championship. It's that simple.

Now, they could try to bolster the offense to make up for what the pitching staff is going to give away, but, unchanged, this team won't win the division. That's a lead-pipe cinch in my mind. Way too many questions and "if's."

dougdirt
07-09-2010, 06:23 PM
This pitching staff can't win this team the division championship. It's that simple.

Now, they could try to bolster the offense to make up for what the pitching staff is going to give away, but, unchanged, this team won't win the division. That's a lead-pipe cinch in my mind. Way too many questions and "if's."

This pitching staff has them 3 games up on the division right now....

max venable
07-09-2010, 06:23 PM
This pitching staff can't win this team the division championship. It's that simple.

Now, they could try to bolster the offense to make up for what the pitching staff is going to give away, but, unchanged, this team won't win the division. That's a lead-pipe cinch in my mind. Way too many questions and "if's."

Yes, this team can win the division. the Cards have as many (if not more) question marks.

No, can't go far in the playoffs, IMHO, with the pitching staff we have.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 06:24 PM
Yes, this team can win the division. the Cards have as many (if not more) question marks.

No, can't go far in the playoffs, IMHO, with the pitching staff we have.

The Cards' pitching staff has far fewer question marks.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 06:25 PM
This pitching staff has them 3 games up on the division right now....

The Reds still have their west-coast trip looming. Cards are done.

Hernandez out, Harang hurt, Leake going to be shelved, Volquez not on the radar anymore, Wood a big question mark.

reds44
07-09-2010, 06:27 PM
The Reds still have their west-coast trip looming. Cards are done.

Hernandez out, Harang hurt, Leake going to be shelved, Volquez not on the radar anymore, Wood a big question mark.
You do realize that Hernandez, Harang, and Volquez will all be back the first week after the break, right?

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 06:28 PM
You do realize that Hernandez, Harang, and Volquez will all be back the first week after the break, right?

Sure, that's what they tell us. Remember when Volquez was going to be back July 7th? Hernandez is having knee issues; he might be back then, but I wouldn't count on it.

reds44
07-09-2010, 06:31 PM
Sure, that's what they tell us. Remember when Volquez was going to be back July 7th? Hernandez is having knee issues; he might be back then, but I wouldn't count on it.
Volquez is going to be back one start later than they originally expected, oh noes the sky is falling!!!11

dougdirt
07-09-2010, 06:33 PM
The Reds still have their west-coast trip looming. Cards are done.

Hernandez out, Harang hurt, Leake going to be shelved, Volquez not on the radar anymore, Wood a big question mark.

Volquez is not on the radar because of one poor start? Please. I don't expect him to come up and be lights out, but he makes this rotation better. As for the others and their questions....

Schumaker, Ryan, Molina. Combined .605 OPS and 829 PA.

Their pitching is better than ours. But our offense is much better.

jojo
07-09-2010, 06:36 PM
Let's face it: the M's don't have nearly the leverage that many of these reported deals are suggesting they do. No one--not even the Yankees (especially not the Yankees?)--are going to empty the cupboard. No reason.

It's going to boil down to which principal the M's like most.

It sounds like the Yanks were willing but the Rangers were willinger... :cool:

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 06:37 PM
Volquez is going to be back one start later than they originally expected, oh noes the sky is falling!!!11

Where do you see that in print? I have seen nothing stating when Volquez will be back--at least since that July 7 prediction. Look, things aren't terribly rosy: Rolen's back is barking, Hernandez has a bum knee, Leake (the Reds' best starter) has to be managed carefully, doesn't look like the Reds are going to get starting pitching reinforcements....

I think they'll be plenty competitive for the rest of the season (heck, their record likely means they'll hang around for some time), but this train is riding the razor's edge, regardless of what you are willing to be the case. The tide is not turning their way right now.

savafan
07-09-2010, 06:37 PM
Joelsherman1 Post has learned that besides Smoak, #Rangers giving up for Lee: RHP Blake Beavan, OF Matthew Lawson, reliever Cory Lueke

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 06:38 PM
It sounds like the Yanks were willing but the Rangers were willinger... :cool:

Yeah, that Rangers deal is kind of thin gruel.

jojo
07-09-2010, 06:41 PM
Considerably. If it ever really existed...

First, you don't even know who the Rangers are including in addition to Smoak and second, there is solid indication that the Yank's offer absolutely was made. Maybe it's a premature proclamation?

kbrake
07-09-2010, 06:42 PM
Sure, that's what they tell us. Remember when Volquez was going to be back July 7th? Hernandez is having knee issues; he might be back then, but I wouldn't count on it.


Volquez struggled in his last start so they pushed him back to give him another start. I don't think its some big conspiracy. Hernandez has a bruise its not like he blew out his knee. Just because Walt came up short on Lee I don't think it means he will just give up trying to improve the team.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 06:43 PM
The Cliff Lee deal looks a bit like the Denny Neagle deal of 2000. If that Yanks deal was offered, they certainly should have taken it.

savafan
07-09-2010, 06:44 PM
The other 3 players dealt with Smoak look to be around 24-25 years old. They're putting up good numbers...in AA.

reds44
07-09-2010, 06:45 PM
Where do you see that in print? I have seen nothing stating when Volquez will be back--at least since that July 7 prediction. Look, things aren't terribly rosy: Rolen's back is barking, Hernandez has a bum knee, Leake (the Reds' best starter) has to be managed carefully, doesn't look like the Reds are going to get starting pitching reinforcements....

I think they'll be plenty competitive for the rest of the season (heck, their record likely means they'll hang around for some time), but this train is riding the razor's edge, regardless of what you are willing to be the case. The tide is not turning their way right now.
You will see Harang, Rolen, Hernandez, and Volquez all back in the lineup/rotation by a week after the All-Star Game, at the latest. You can quote me on that.

Cueto is the Reds best starter, but the point remains the same. Even with Leake having to be managed carefully, the Reds are getting back a guy who went 17-6 with an ERA of 3.21 in 2008. If that's not a "starting pitching reinforcement" I don't know what is.

Caveat Emperor
07-09-2010, 06:47 PM
I'd be a bit nervous as a Rangers fan though. I know Lee is pretty much a sure thing, but what if Smoak turns into another Adrian Gonzalez?

Who cares. The Rangers have been largely irrelevant as a franchise for the past decade. They're going all-in to try and make good on the best opportunity they've had for post-season play since 1999.

Sound familiar?

Well done to the Texas Rangers on landing their prize. I sincerely hope the Reds did everything they could to make this deal a reality.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 06:47 PM
Walt becomes Wait.

dougdirt
07-09-2010, 06:48 PM
The other 3 players dealt with Smoak look to be around 24-25 years old. They're putting up good numbers...in AA.

Blake Beavan is 21, in the AA Texas League. Sub 3.00 ERA, 68K's and 12BB's in 110 innings. Solid groundball guy, 51% this year.

Caveat Emperor
07-09-2010, 06:48 PM
Yeah, that Rangers deal is kind of thin gruel.

When you think about how Alonso has yet to post a truly dominant season in the minors and is on a major league contract, you might find a lot of GMs who would say a deal involving him as a centerpiece would be even thinner gruel.

savafan
07-09-2010, 06:49 PM
Blake Beavan is 21, in the AA Texas League. Sub 3.00 ERA, 68K's and 12BB's in 110 innings. Solid groundball guy, 51% this year.

He's the one I couldn't find an age on. His numbers look pretty solid though.

reds44
07-09-2010, 06:49 PM
johnfayman I'm hearing the #Reds were in the Lee talks today. Jocketty and his assistants are in Philly but haven't arrived at park yet.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 06:50 PM
When you think about how Alonso has yet to post a truly dominant season in the minors and is on a major league contract, you might find a lot of GMs who would say a deal involving him as a centerpiece would be even thinner gruel.

Sure, but the Reds could easily have trumped the Rangers with supplementary players. The other kids in the Rangers deal are pretty blah, or very far from contributing.

Heck, the Yankees deal was much better. And that's one we know existed.

dougdirt
07-09-2010, 06:50 PM
He's the one I couldn't find an age on. His numbers look pretty solid though.
Probably not as good as his numbers/draft position suggest, but a solid prospect still.

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2010, 06:50 PM
When you think about how Alonso has yet to post a truly dominant season in the minors and is on a major league contract, you might find a lot of GMs who would say a deal involving him as a centerpiece would be even thinner gruel.

He's heated up a LOT recently. I think by season's end, he'll have pretty solid numbers in AAA. He'll probably be MLB ready by the start of next year.

dougdirt
07-09-2010, 06:52 PM
He's heated up a LOT recently. I think by season's end, he'll have pretty solid numbers in AAA. He'll probably be MLB ready by the start of next year.

He passes the 'eye test'. Numerically, there is some questions. Most notably, the plate discipline. It has been better the past two weeks, but prior to that he was striking out a lot and not walking at all. Pressing for sure, but even still, his discipline has arguably been one of his best skills.

osuceltic
07-09-2010, 06:53 PM
Sure seems like the Reds could have beaten that deal. It all depends on what the Mariners think of Smoak, though.

At least we still have the second coming of Jason LaRue.

dougdirt
07-09-2010, 06:53 PM
At least we still have the second coming of Jason LaRue.

Huh?

jojo
07-09-2010, 06:54 PM
When you think about how Alonso has yet to post a truly dominant season in the minors and is on a major league contract, you might find a lot of GMs who would say a deal involving him as a centerpiece would be even thinner gruel.

Seriously.

Smoat>>>Montero (who is major league ready yet and whose value isn't as great as it was when he was considered a catcher). That's kind of the place to start isnt it?

Reportedly Adams had questions about his ankle that the Yanks couldn't answer.

Oh ya, and this was for a couple months of Lee.

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2010, 06:55 PM
Huh?

Pretty sure he's referring to the Reds hanging on to Mesoraco (and the statistical comparison in AA--while ignoring the age differences).

Screwball
07-09-2010, 06:56 PM
Sure seems like the Reds could have beaten that deal. It all depends on what the Mariners think of Smoak, though.

At least we still have the second coming of Jason LaRue.

What were you saying after the Reds didn't haul out Votto et.al. for Bedard? "At least we still have the second coming of Sean Casey"?

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 06:57 PM
Oh ya, and this was for a couple months of Lee.

And picks, and 2.5 million.

Montero and Smoak are both 1B--but Montero's got a higher ceiling.

jojo
07-09-2010, 07:05 PM
And picks, and 2.5 million.

Montero and Smoak are both 1B--but Montero's got a higher ceiling.

Montero is a righty (not as desirable in Safeco) who has yet to be converted to first and since he's not the greatest athlete it's uncertain what his ultimate defensive value will be and his rankings will almost certainly drop some as he's moved from the catcher position.

Smoak is major league ready now, plays his natural position with a solid defensive reputation and is an offensive ideal for Safeco.

Montero would be an exciting haul for Lee. Smoak is an exciting haul for Lee and is a better fit for the Ms.

backbencher
07-09-2010, 07:23 PM
Montero is a righty (not as desirable in Safeco) who has yet to be converted to first and since he's not the greatest athlete it's uncertain what his ultimate defensive value will be and his rankings will almost certainly drop some as he's moved from the catcher position.

Smoak is major league ready now, plays his natural position with a solid defensive reputation and is an offensive ideal for Safeco.

Montero would be an exciting haul for Lee. Smoak is an exciting haul for Lee and is a better fit for the Ms.

Seems right.

Ah, the broken hamate bone. It seems awfully clear that (a) the Reds had Yonder on the table and that (b) in the M's mind, Smoak>>Montero>Alonso. Pretty much impossible to argue.

It may be that the M's wanted one sure thing, and that Yonder wasn't it. At a minimum, though, it seems certain that the Reds' secondary package would have had to have been awfully rich -- Yonder + at least Frazier, and perhaps Wood or Mesoraco.

lollipopcurve
07-09-2010, 07:26 PM
Smoak has floundered in Texas. It won't get any easier in Seattle.

Beavan has really come on. He may work out nicely in Safeco.

All in all, pretty much the same formulation as Cleveland got two years ago for a couple months of Sabathia. One well-regarded 1B prospect, plus.

In my view, it falls short of the supposed offer from Minnesota, Hicks/Ramos (which I doubt ever got made), and well short of those Alonso/Wood/Heisey and similar packages folks thought the Reds should offer.

Will M
07-09-2010, 07:33 PM
He's heated up a LOT recently. I think by season's end, he'll have pretty solid numbers in AAA. He'll probably be MLB ready by the start of next year.

if so then we should move him in the offseason when his value is rising. not now when his value is likely low. broken hamate or not his minor league numbers wouldn't have me drooling as a rival GM.

NJReds
07-09-2010, 07:44 PM
If I was in the AL West, I'd be ticked that the league is subsidizing the Rangers, and yet they can go out and add payroll.

lollipopcurve
07-09-2010, 07:52 PM
If I was in the AL West, I'd be ticked that the league is subsidizing the Rangers, and yet they can go out and add payroll.

Will having Lee help the Rangers pay back their creditors? If so, the deal smells a little bit, I think.

Jpup
07-09-2010, 07:53 PM
If I was in the AL West, I'd be ticked that the league is subsidizing the Rangers, and yet they can go out and add payroll.

They are not really adding much payroll and we still don't know all the details yet.

KoryMac5
07-09-2010, 07:53 PM
If I was in the AL West, I'd be ticked that the league is subsidizing the Rangers, and yet they can go out and add payroll.

Seattle kicked in the rest of Lee's salary and Texas kicked in an extra player.

_Sir_Charles_
07-09-2010, 07:57 PM
Seattle kicked in the rest of Lee's salary and Texas kicked in an extra player.

Sounds like the M's only paid for PART of Lee's salary. It looks like the Rangers are still taking on about 1.5 million. But with all the contracts LEAVING Texas...it actually might balance out. Not sure.

Matt700wlw
07-09-2010, 07:59 PM
I'm definitely bummed that the Reds couldn't get it done, but I'm also glad he's staying in the AL. Him going to St. Louis would have been majorly bad...or any other contending NL team. Onto Plan B (again), if there is in fact one.

OnBaseMachine
07-09-2010, 08:09 PM
Wow, after seeing what the Rangers traded, I am extremely disappointed the Reds didn't beat that offer. They could have and should have offered the Rangers more. Smoak is a good player, but Beavan has a 5.56 K/9 in AAA, Josh Lueke is a 25-year old reliever in AA, and Matt Lawson is a 24-year old 2B with an .809 OPS in a very hitter friendly AA league. Yonder Alonso + Juan Francisco/Todd Frazier + Brad Boxberger + Matt Maloney easily beats that deal, IMO.

backbencher
07-09-2010, 08:14 PM
Wow, after seeing what the Rangers traded, I am extremely disappointed the Reds didn't beat that offer. They could have and should have offered the Rangers more. Smoak is a good player, but Beavan has a 5.56 K/9 in AAA, Josh Lueke is a 25-year old reliever in AA, and Matt Lawson is a 24-year old 2B with an .809 OPS in a very hitter friendly AA league. Yonder Alonso + Juan Francisco/Todd Frazier + Brad Boxberger + Matt Maloney easily beats that deal, IMO.

It's clear that the M's valued Smoak a LOT more than Alonso. Blame a bad draft or a bad hamate bone.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 08:17 PM
I wonder how this is playing out in the Reds' clubhouse?

jojo
07-09-2010, 08:19 PM
Smoak has floundered in Texas. It won't get any easier in Seattle.

Beavan has really come on. He may work out nicely in Safeco.

All in all, pretty much the same formulation as Cleveland got two years ago for a couple months of Sabathia. One well-regarded 1B prospect, plus.

In my view, it falls short of the supposed offer from Minnesota, Hicks/Ramos (which I doubt ever got made), and well short of those Alonso/Wood/Heisey and similar packages folks thought the Reds should offer.

Smoak>>Hicks because Hicks is a lot farther away. Ramos would've basically fought for 300 PAs as a catcher with the Ms.

OnBaseMachine
07-09-2010, 08:19 PM
This stings quite a bit right now. Usually I don't get excited until something is final, but I actually thought the Reds were going to acquire Lee. I had a great feeling he was going to be a Red. I know I would have been extremely excited, and I can't help but think about how excited the city of Cincinnati would have been. I'm sure the Reds would have saw quite a boost in attendance.

Now it's time to go after Dan Haren or Roy Oswalt.

Chip R
07-09-2010, 08:20 PM
I'm wondering how the Rangers got this done considering the state of their ownership.

toledodan
07-09-2010, 08:20 PM
Yonder Alonso + Juan Francisco/Todd Frazier + Brad Boxberger + Matt Maloney easily beats that deal, IMO.


i wanted lee but that would be alot even for me to give.

Mario-Rijo
07-09-2010, 08:20 PM
It's clear that the M's valued Smoak a LOT more than Alonso. Blame a bad draft or a bad hamate bone.

Really how do we know we actually offered Alonso? But if they did they probably had reason to as Smoak has more raw power (the essential element the M's were/are after).

But just as I expected the package is nowhere near what the hype always is and you got all these folks who just want to keep throwing 2 or 3 (or more) of our best prospects at every deal, they do have value also even though they are Reds prospects.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 08:21 PM
This stings quite a bit right now. Usually I don't get excited until something is final, but I actually thought the Reds were going to acquire Lee. I had a great feeling he was going to be a Red. I know I would have been extremely excited, and I can't help but think about how excited the city of Cincinnati would have been. I'm sure the Reds would have saw quite a boost in attendance.

Now it's time to go after Dan Haren or Roy Oswalt.

Can't imagine the Reds will go after Oswalt with his contract.

OnBaseMachine
07-09-2010, 08:22 PM
I'm wondering how the Rangers got this done considering the state of their ownership.

I think it's bull. I bet the Angels are ticked...

jojo
07-09-2010, 08:22 PM
Really how do we know we actually offered Alonso? But if they did they probably had reason to as Smoak has more raw power (the essential element the M's were/are after).

And likely much more defensive value.


But just as I expected the package is nowhere near what the hype always is and you got all these folks who just want to keep throwing 2 or 3 (or more) of our best prospects at every deal, they do have value also even though they are Reds prospects.

It would take 2-3 of the Reds best prospects to beat just a Smoat for Lee deal.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 08:25 PM
It would take 2-3 of the Reds best prospects to beat just a Smoat for Lee deal.

Three is probably overstating it. Heisey by himself is probably even money with Smoak as an impact player (Heisey's definitely better defensively).

dougdirt
07-09-2010, 08:38 PM
Smoak has floundered in Texas. It won't get any easier in Seattle.

Beavan has really come on. He may work out nicely in Safeco.


Smoak has 'floundered' because he has a .238 BABIP this season. He is going to be plenty good.

I am with you on Beavan though. He looks like he could be a solid #4 guy, especially in that park. He isn't missing bats, but he isn't walking anyone at all either. Lots of grounders too.

Mario-Rijo
07-09-2010, 08:40 PM
It would take 2-3 of the Reds best prospects to beat just a Smoat for Lee deal.

Bologna!

OnBaseMachine
07-09-2010, 08:45 PM
From John Fay:

Jocketty: Like I said the other day, we were looking for a significant player. I'm not sure there's another guy like him out there.

http://twitter.com/johnfayman

Roy Oswalt? Dan Haren?

Matt700wlw
07-09-2010, 08:46 PM
Mark Sheldon with Marty said the Reds were one of three teams in the mix, and said Walt told him they felt their offer was very substantial.

No reason to think it wasn't.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 08:46 PM
At least Jocketty got that right. (There is no other pitcher like that out there).

I would take a different tack: see what the Red Sox, Rays, Dodgers would offer for Arroyo.

dougdirt
07-09-2010, 08:47 PM
So why can't someone tell us who the Reds offered? I am very curious as to what we offered compared to the Rangers.

OnBaseMachine
07-09-2010, 08:51 PM
From Mark Sheldon:


Asked if he would pursue another starting pitcher, Jocketty said this:

"If you're talking about significantly upgrading, this guy was a significant upgrade. I'm not sure there's another guy like that out there that we can get right now. We'll keep looking."

Jocketty did not disclose the players Seattle asked for or his own proposals.

"It's just one of those deals you would have liked to have done because we wanted to show our club we're doing everything we can possible," he said. "They're doing their job on the field and we're trying to do our job in the front office to keep us where we're at."


http://marksheldon.mlblogs.com/archives/2010/07/reds_made_substantial_run_at_l.html

lollipopcurve
07-09-2010, 08:53 PM
It would take 2-3 of the Reds best prospects to beat just a Smoat for Lee deal.

I think you're irrational with euphoria.

Hope Smoak works out for you, but the initial returns aren't great. You're a 1B, you better hit.

And I still think Ramos/Hicks will look a lot better than what the Mariners got a couple years from now. Let's wait and see.

Sea Ray
07-09-2010, 08:55 PM
This kinda makes the Branyan trade look all the more worthless

Tom Servo
07-09-2010, 08:56 PM
What about Ben Sheets?

TheNext44
07-09-2010, 08:57 PM
It would take 2-3 of the Reds best prospects to beat just a Smoat for Lee deal.

Well, that's not true because Chapman by himself is better than Smoak. But if you are talking prospects that the Reds would actually trade for Lee, than you're pretty close.

And like I said, the trade would come down to which top prospect the M's liked best. They llked Montero the best, but when one of the others failed their physical, it gave Texas an opportunity cave and offer Smoak, who the M's obviously liked the best, since he is the most developed.

Mario-Rijo
07-09-2010, 08:59 PM
What about Ben Sheets?

He ain't missing too many bats these days, not really an upgrade perse'. He's also given up alot of hits and HR's.

backbencher
07-09-2010, 09:01 PM
Really how do we know we actually offered Alonso?

Context. Smoak and Montero were the other headliners. Who in the Reds organization looks like those two? Who else might be considered part of a "substantial" package, in comparison?

We know that the Reds offer was Alonso+ and that the + was not enough to overcome the gap that the Mariners saw to get up to their value for Smoak or Montero.

backbencher
07-09-2010, 09:03 PM
So why can't someone tell us who the Reds offered? I am very curious as to what we offered compared to the Rangers.

Tell the world what you offered and that becomes the starting point in the next negotiation. "We know that you are willing to trade . . . ."

That said, the whole world has to know that Alonso and, probably, Francisco were on the table.

Tom Servo
07-09-2010, 09:03 PM
He ain't missing too many bats these days, not really an upgrade perse'. He's also given up alot of hits and HR's.
Yeah I just took a look at his stats, yeesh.


Still, it could be a high reward situation if you put him back in the NL.

dougdirt
07-09-2010, 09:04 PM
Tell the world what you offered and that becomes the starting point in the next negotiation. "We know that you are willing to trade . . . ."

That said, the whole world has to know that Alonso and, probably, Francisco were on the table.

I know.... but I am selfish lol.

Mario-Rijo
07-09-2010, 09:10 PM
Tell the world what you offered and that becomes the starting point in the next negotiation. "We know that you are willing to trade . . . ."

That said, the whole world has to know that Alonso and, probably, Francisco were on the table.

Probably why it didn't get done, like I said before Jack Z is a pretty fair judge of talent.

Caveat Emperor
07-09-2010, 09:20 PM
At least Jocketty got that right. (There is no other pitcher like that out there).

I would take a different tack: see what the Red Sox, Rays, Dodgers would offer for Arroyo.

What's the logic on that move? If this team has any designs on competing for a post-season spot, they'll need Bronson Arroyo to go on one of his hot-runs through August and September.

There's no way you can remove Arroyo from the rotation and hope to keep the winning up.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 09:23 PM
What's the logic on that move? If this team has any designs on competing for a post-season spot, they'll need Bronson Arroyo to go on one of his hot-runs through August and September.

There's no way you can remove Arroyo from the rotation and hope to keep the winning up.

I doubt the Reds go to the postseason in the status quo. I just don't see how. If they can't substantially improve the pitching staff before July 31, work for next year.

Standing pat would be death.

Sea Ray
07-09-2010, 09:28 PM
I doubt the Reds go to the postseason in the status quo. I just don't see how. If they can't substantially improve the pitching staff before July 31, work for next year.

Standing pat would be death.

I disagree. In fact I would say that the Reds more so than most clubs, will greatly benefit from expanded rosters Sept 1. They'll get to stack the pitching staff with reinforcements such as Burton, Chapman and Phillipe Valiquette. They can call up Mesorasco, Dickerson, Francisco and Alonzo for bench strength. If they're close on Sept 1, I gotta like their chances

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 09:32 PM
I disagree. In fact I would say that the Reds more so than most clubs, will greatly benefit from expanded rosters Sept 1. They'll get to stack the pitching staff with reinforcements such as Burton, Chapman and Phillipe Valiquette. They can call up Mesorasco, Dickerson, Francisco and Alonzo for bench strength. If they're close on Sept 1, I gotta like their chances

Where are the starters going to come from?

Caveat Emperor
07-09-2010, 09:33 PM
I doubt the Reds go to the postseason in the status quo. I just don't see how. If they can't substantially improve the pitching staff before July 31, work for next year.

Standing pat would be death.

Competing in 2011, IMO, starts with bringing Arroyo back -- either by picking his option up or (better yet) re-negotiating to reduce the dollars and add additional years to the deal.

RedLegSuperStar
07-09-2010, 09:41 PM
I love how we miss out on Lee and it's like the season is over and we should be sellers.. Many said we didn't need to make moves for a rental, many said Volquez is just as good as getting a pitcher without even throwing a big league pitch. Harang and Bailey are hurt. This team might wait to see what this team can do in the coming weeks. More teams might consider themselves out of the race and perhaps the D'backs capitalize on possibly having the next best possible pitcher.

TheNext44
07-09-2010, 09:42 PM
I doubt the Reds go to the postseason in the status quo. I just don't see how. If they can't substantially improve the pitching staff before July 31, work for next year.

Standing pat would be death.

If you you are refering to the situation in St. Louis, you are correct. :p:

RedsManRick
07-09-2010, 09:44 PM
For those commenting about the league underwriting Texas, the best thing a team can do to stabilize its financial health is to make the playoffs. You draw a number of extra gates and see a boost in subsequent years.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 09:48 PM
I love how we miss out on Lee and it's like the season is over and we should be sellers.. Many said we didn't need to make moves for a rental, many said Volquez is just as good as getting a pitcher without even throwing a big league pitch. Harang and Bailey are hurt. This team might wait to see what this team can do in the coming weeks. More teams might consider themselves out of the race and perhaps the D'backs capitalize on possibly having the next best possible pitcher.

I think if a comparable pitcher doesn't become available before July 31 the Reds should consider an alternative to an approach that essentially constitutes crossing their fingers.

Sea Ray
07-09-2010, 09:49 PM
Where are the starters going to come from?

Harang, Bailey, Volquez, Wood, Arroyo, Cueto, Leake, Maloney. We ought to be able to come up with 5 starters out of those 8. With the reinforcements in the bullpen we won't be asking these starters to go deep into games. Dusty will love having a 10 man bullpen

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2010, 09:51 PM
I think if a comparable pitcher doesn't become available before July 31 the Reds should consider an alternative to an approach that essentially constitutes crossing their fingers.

There will be very good options...Haren, Lilly, Carmona, Nolasco etc. Might not be as sexy as Lee, but they are certainly better than the current back end of the rotation. They will help.

What I really want to see the Reds get is a shutdown bullpen arm. A pitcher like League of Seattle. A guy with nasty stuff that can come in and shut down the opposition in big spots. The Reds do not have one of those guys in my estimation.

savafan
07-09-2010, 09:53 PM
There will be very good options...Haren, Lilly, Carmona, Nolasco etc. Might not be as sexy as Lee, but they are certainly better than the current back end of the rotation. They will help.



I'm not sure any of those guys are comparable to Lee. There really aren't any pitchers of HIS caliber on the remaining non-contenders.

Sea Ray
07-09-2010, 09:53 PM
I think if a comparable pitcher doesn't become available before July 31 the Reds should consider an alternative to an approach that essentially constitutes crossing their fingers.

Dealing for prospects is a form of crossing your fingers. Generally prospects means acquiring guys like Matt Belisle and Micah Owings. What makes you think teams are offering the likes of Montero and Romos for Arroyo?

Rojo
07-09-2010, 09:58 PM
I doubt the Reds go to the postseason in the status quo. I just don't see how.

Oh, I can see them making the post-season. How far they make it after that, sans a true ace, is a different question.

TheNext44
07-09-2010, 09:59 PM
I think if a comparable pitcher doesn't become available before July 31 the Reds should consider an alternative to an approach that essentially constitutes crossing their fingers.

First, any team near .500 by July 31 is still a contender. And if you're Rockies, even that doesn't matter.

Second, players become available after the trade deadline every year, and if you are willing to take on a some contract, you can get some pretty good players up until Sept. 1st.

Third, if no good pitcher becomes available, then no team, including the Cardinals who need pitching far more than the Reds, would be getting better. That's the reason why it's important for the Reds to get better, because usually everyone esle does as well.

So the Red really only have to worry if they don't a pitcher and the Cardinals do. The Card's GM has already been quoted as saying that the Cards don't have the prospects to get the players that the team needs. I think the Cardinals have much more to worry about than the Reds.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 10:02 PM
First, any team near .500 by July 31 is still a contender. And if you're Rockies, even that doesn't matter.

Second, players become available after the trade deadline every year, and if you are willing to take on a some contract, you can get some pretty good players up until Sept. 1st.

Third, if no good pitcher becomes available, then no team, including the Cardinals who need pitching far more than the Reds, would be getting better. That's the reason why it's important for the Reds to get better, because usually everyone esle does as well.

So the Red really only have to worry if they don't a pitcher and the Cardinals do. The Card's GM has already been quoted as saying that the Cards don't have the prospects to get the players that the team needs. I think the Cardinals have much more to worry about than the Reds.

How on earth do the "Cards need more pitching than the Reds?" That makes no sense.

TheNext44
07-09-2010, 10:16 PM
How on earth do the "Cards need more pitching than the Reds?" That makes no sense.

Just go to any Card's message board and they will provide you with lots of reasons why that makes a lot of sense.

The Cardinal's have three #1-2 pitchers and zero starters that they can depend on after that. They also have an imploding bullpen. They are currently pitching Brewer rejects, and career minor leaguers in their rotation.

The Reds have a three solid #2-3, Cueto, Arroyo, Leake; a solid #4-5, Harang, when healthy; and questions marks for their 5th; Volquez, Wood, Bailey, Maloney.

The Cardinal starters as a group may put up better numbers than the Reds, but the Reds are much, much deeper and need pitching far less.

HokieRed
07-09-2010, 10:28 PM
If we make no moves, Volquez is, IMO, the key to going somewhere in the post-season. Volquez, Cueto, and Arroyo would be competitive.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 10:30 PM
If we make no moves, Volquez is, IMO, the key to going somewhere in the post-season. Volquez, Cueto, and Arroyo would be competitive.

It'd be a first round exit.

TRF
07-09-2010, 10:37 PM
It'd be a first round exit.

nah, because Volquez is a wild card.

TheNext44
07-09-2010, 10:38 PM
It'd be a first round exit.

The only possible playoff team that I think are definitely better suited for a short series than the Reds is the Cardinals, and the Reds aren't seeing them in the first round, if the Cards even make the playoffs at all.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 10:39 PM
The only possible playoff team that I think are definitely better suited for a short series than the Reds is the Cardinals, and the Reds aren't seeing them in the first round, if the Cards even make the playoffs at all.

They'd come home from San Diego 0-2.

deltachi8
07-09-2010, 10:41 PM
This pitching staff can't win this team the division championship. It's that simple.

Now, they could try to bolster the offense to make up for what the pitching staff is going to give away, but, unchanged, this team won't win the division. That's a lead-pipe cinch in my mind. Way too many questions and "if's."

I agree with you. The Reds have led a charmed life the first half. Eventually flaws become exposed and start costing you unless you either correct them or can compensate for them elsewhere. Either way, the Reds have to make upgrades or waive at the Cardinals when they pass.

TheNext44
07-09-2010, 10:48 PM
They'd come home from San Diego 0-2.

I'm not afraid of Richards and Garland, while Latos and LaBlanc are rookies, so I wouldn't depend on them in the playoffs if I were the Padres.

And I wouldn't assume that the Padres would have home field advantage. They are only a game and a half up on the Reds currently.

But they would be the next team after the Cardinals that I hope the Reds wouldn't have to face, even though I think the Reds match up well against them.

flyer85
07-09-2010, 10:56 PM
i'd rather acquire a really good relief pitcher

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 10:59 PM
i'd rather acquire a really good relief pitcher

Rhodes to close, Cordero to first out of the pen. Problem solved. It's not the relief pitching. It really isn't.

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2010, 11:21 PM
So why can't someone tell us who the Reds offered? I am very curious as to what we offered compared to the Rangers.

It's bad for leverage for another possible trade to another team. It's never wise to show your hand.

klw
07-09-2010, 11:23 PM
Rhodes to close, Cordero to first out of the pen. Problem solved. It's not the relief pitching. It really isn't.

Except that by all accounts I have read, Rhodes has never performed well in the closer role.

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2010, 11:23 PM
I'm not sure any of those guys are comparable to Lee. There really aren't any pitchers of HIS caliber on the remaining non-contenders.

The current staff is not that great. Any of those guys would be an upgrade over Harang or whoever the 5th starter is.

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2010, 11:25 PM
Rhodes to close, Cordero to first out of the pen. Problem solved. It's not the relief pitching. It really isn't.

Cordero is bad and Rhodes is surely do for a regression. Besides that, we know Dusty would never put Coco out first in the pen or "disrespect" Cordero like that.

savafan
07-09-2010, 11:29 PM
The current staff is not that great. Any of those guys would be an upgrade over Harang or whoever the 5th starter is.

But Travis Wood is a bona fide major league starter who is a future star that no one wants to deal away for a former Cy Young winner. How can that be?

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2010, 11:32 PM
But Travis Wood is a bona fide major league starter who is a future star that no one wants to deal away for a former Cy Young winner. How can that be?

"future star?" I'm not sure about all that. Wood may wind up being great. We don't know yet. I'd much rather have a sure ace out there than a rookie as the summer goes on.

savafan
07-09-2010, 11:39 PM
"future star?" I'm not sure about all that. Wood may wind up being great. We don't know yet. I'd much rather have a sure ace out there than a rookie as the summer goes on.

I would too, but all day today I've been reading about how there's no way you give up a Travis Wood for a pitcher like Cliff Lee.

corkedbat
07-10-2010, 12:11 AM
It depends on how much, but I do think competitors have every right to complain if MLB allows any significant payroll to be added on their dime.

Didn't MLB do something like this before? Seems like they ponied up about $20M around the time of the Rangers/ARod deal when Texas was tapped out.

membengal
07-10-2010, 12:16 AM
I would too, but all day today I've been reading about how there's no way you give up a Travis Wood for a pitcher like Cliff Lee.

Context matters. Way to bastardize the position of those advocating hanging on to Wood.

There was a lot of discomfort expressed about dealing Wood for a rental. I was one of those.

I stand by that.

savafan
07-10-2010, 12:18 AM
Context matters. Way to bastardize the position of those advocating hanging on to Wood.

There was a lot of discomfort expressed about dealing Wood for a rental. I was one of those.

I stand by that.

Yes, a rental that pretty much shores up the division, a trip into the playoffs, strong chance at winning a 5 game series, pretty decent shot at a 7 game series, and increased fan excitement and revenue. That's a horrible idea.

Falls City Beer
07-10-2010, 12:20 AM
I already love the 2018 Reds. I can tell from here.

membengal
07-10-2010, 12:20 AM
Yes, a rental that pretty much shores up the division, a trip into the playoffs, strong chance at winning a 5 game series, pretty decent shot at a 7 game series, and increased fan excitement and revenue. That's a horrible idea.

Lee stops the meltdown tonite? Were we going to convert him to closer?

And what 5 game series? I thought they were all 7 now?

And, hey, if Lee was a guarantee to the playoffs sure, was he? I don't have your crystal ball I guess.

Sorry that Walt didn't mortgage the future for a rental, I guess. I happen to think he made the right move.

Talk to me when the target is going to be here for awhile.

savafan
07-10-2010, 12:23 AM
Lee stops the meltdown tonite? Were we going to convert him to closer?

And what 5 game series? I thought they were all 7 now?

And, hey, if Lee was a guarantee to the playoffs sure, was he? I don't have your crystal ball I guess.

Sorry that Walt didn't mortgage the future for a rental, I guess. I happen to think he made the right move.

Talk to me when the target is going to be here for awhile.

My comment wasn't about tonight, it was in response to the statement that this starting rotation isn't very good.

I'll be happy that Walt didn't manage the future for a rental, although I believe he tried, especially if we don't win a championship for another 20 years.

REDREAD
07-10-2010, 12:24 AM
I doubt the Reds go to the postseason in the status quo. I just don't see how. If they can't substantially improve the pitching staff before July 31, work for next year.

Standing pat would be death.

If the Reds stand pat, they might not make the playoffs, I agree.

However, I don't think the plan/expectation was to make the playoffs this year. Every year since Walt arrived, the team has incrementally improved. Walt is doing this without "blowing it up".

I see no reason to trade Bronson. Exercise his option (or extend him) and continue to make the team better. Maybe Alonso gets us something we need in the offseason or next year's trade deadline.

I'm glad Lee didn't go to the Yankees. I'm glad MLB let Texas make some trades, especially if it only added 1-2 million in payroll. We complain about the system handcuffing small market teams.. It only seems fair to let Texas operate as normal. Let's face it, it's not as if the Rangers are some third world country that won't ever repay their debts.

REDREAD
07-10-2010, 12:28 AM
It'd be a first round exit.

If the Reds can stablilize the bullpen, they have a chance to make it past the first round of the playoffs. Will they win the WS? Probably not, but it would be great for this franchise to just make the playoffs, even if they get swept in the first round.

membengal
07-10-2010, 12:28 AM
My comment wasn't about tonight, it was in response to the statement that this starting rotation isn't very good.

I'll be happy that Walt didn't manage the future for a rental, although I believe he tried, especially if we don't win a championship for another 20 years.

Leake was nails for 8. Cueto was nails last night. Arroyo was nails the night before. Wood has been more than just serviceable in his two-game trial. He's been darn good. Volquez is ready, having just thrown a one-hitter tonite in AAA. Harang is Harang. Bailey/Chapman lurk.

I fully disagree that the rotation "isn't very good". I know the board is in full over-react mode right now. Lee would have helped, sure. But he was a two month rental, and I don't think the price to be paid was one that should have been paid by this franchise in terms of players that are ready to help now. Not for a guy that won't be here next year.

Falls City Beer
07-10-2010, 12:32 AM
If the Reds can stablilize the bullpen, they have a chance to make it past the first round of the playoffs. Will they win the WS? Probably not, but it would be great for this franchise to just make the playoffs, even if they get swept in the first round.

I just can't see how this team is going to get enough strong innings from just bullpen acquisitions. The problem is deeper than that.

Reds' team ERA ranks 12th in the NL, between the Nats and Astros. There aren't enough bodies in the Reds' system to turn that ship around.

Ramon gimping, Rolen gimping. Time to re-assess. Take a different tack.

savafan
07-10-2010, 12:33 AM
I fully disagree that the rotation "isn't very good". I know the board is in full over-react mode right now. Lee would have helped, sure. But he was a two month rental, and I don't think the price to be paid was one that should have been paid by this franchise in terms of players that are ready to help now. Not for a guy that won't be here next year.

There's a mentality here that these minor leaguers will get us over the hump in future seasons. How long do we wait? Votto will be a free agent in 3 years if he's not signed to an extension. We're not the New York Yankees. We can't buy the best players every year and field a team of all-stars. Championships are special. Ask the Cubs fans. Ask the Indians fans. Ask the Royals fans. Ask the Pirates fans.

Topcat
07-10-2010, 06:10 AM
There's a mentality here that these minor leaguers will get us over the hump in future seasons. How long do we wait? Votto will be a free agent in 3 years if he's not signed to an extension. We're not the New York Yankees. We can't buy the best players every year and field a team of all-stars. Championships are special. Ask the Cubs fans. Ask the Indians fans. Ask the Royals fans. Ask the Pirates fans.


Agreed sava but we truly do have some gifted prospects. That being said it is still earlier enough in the season to not over pay for a guy.

membengal
07-10-2010, 08:24 AM
There's a mentality here that these minor leaguers will get us over the hump in future seasons. How long do we wait? Votto will be a free agent in 3 years if he's not signed to an extension. We're not the New York Yankees. We can't buy the best players every year and field a team of all-stars. Championships are special. Ask the Cubs fans. Ask the Indians fans. Ask the Royals fans. Ask the Pirates fans.

There's a mentailty here that seems to get very angry that there is a bigger picture with a small market team on a budget than going hell-bent for a pure rental with the team's top prospects.

It is frustrating, I will grant. But it is also the reality. If it is too frustraing, the Yankees always have room for more fans. They are a franchise blessed with playing by different rules.

The Lee deal didn't go down because the M's like Smoak as a prospect better for their needs than anything the Reds could give them. You want to blame something, blame Alonso's broken hamate bone a year ago. He's just now, on schedule, getting his power back. If he had been healthy, perhaps he is the better prospect and we get Lee.

I don't know of any poster save one who was, in this or the other thread, advocating hanging onto Alonso. Pretty much all were in agreement he was excess and could be dealt. Problem was, Smoak is better at this point in time.

There feels like a lot of blame and anger in a lot of posts in the wake of last night's disappointing loss tossed at people who were against giving away players this team will need not in "2018", but in 2011 to keep winning. Maybe there is a way to move beyond the anger and understand what the anti-rental-at-all-costs crowd was saying (and that the Reds appeared to subscribe to).

Maybe not.

jojo
07-10-2010, 12:05 PM
This kinda makes the Branyan trade look all the more worthless

Because the Ms don't need a DH?

jojo
07-10-2010, 12:07 PM
Three is probably overstating it. Heisey by himself is probably even money with Smoak as an impact player (Heisey's definitely better defensively).

That's some extremely unique player evaluation.

RedLegSuperStar
07-10-2010, 12:33 PM
I agree with savafan.. this team went out last year and acquired Scott Rolen for this reason. To bolster this lineup and give this team a shot at winning. Prospects minor league numbers don't always translate into major league numbers.. some do. Prospects are a gamble. You have to stick with a proven thing and the Reds are tightly clinching onto their lead. But for how long? Can Brandon Phillips go all year nursing aches and pains, can Scott Rolen stay healthy, will this offense continue to produce, is Edison Volquez the answer, can CoCo not put on his Danny Graves impersonation night in and night out? This team needs help to stay afloat and I hope the Reds find it. Cliff Lee was a big fish to try to catch.. but the bait wasn't good enough. If i'm the Reds I need some another arm to count on.. maybe a bench guy aswell

Trade for Haren
Sign Blalock (bench)

lollipopcurve
07-10-2010, 12:36 PM
There's a mentailty here that seems to get very angry that there is a bigger picture with a small market team on a budget than going hell-bent for a pure rental with the team's top prospects.

It is frustrating, I will grant. But it is also the reality. If it is too frustraing, the Yankees always have room for more fans. They are a franchise blessed with playing by different rules.

The Lee deal didn't go down because the M's like Smoak as a prospect better for their needs than anything the Reds could give them. You want to blame something, blame Alonso's broken hamate bone a year ago. He's just now, on schedule, getting his power back. If he had been healthy, perhaps he is the better prospect and we get Lee.

I don't know of any poster save one who was, in this or the other thread, advocating hanging onto Alonso. Pretty much all were in agreement he was excess and could be dealt. Problem was, Smoak is better at this point in time.

There feels like a lot of blame and anger in a lot of posts in the wake of last night's disappointing loss tossed at people who were against giving away players this team will need not in "2018", but in 2011 to keep winning. Maybe there is a way to move beyond the anger and understand what the anti-rental-at-all-costs crowd was saying (and that the Reds appeared to subscribe to).

Maybe not.

Excellent post.

Many of us were wary of the price it might have taken *for a rental* -- doesn't mean we didn't want to see a deal, or wouldn't sacrifice even more for an ace (Oswalt or Haren or Greinke) who would stick around for a couple more years.

osuceltic
07-10-2010, 12:50 PM
Sorry, I look at this as a failure. He was the guy we wanted. We didn't get him. I wish we knew what the hangup was. If we eventually find out it was because we wouldn't part with Mesoraco or Wood or any other specific prospect out there, I'll go from disappointed to angry. This is the year and Lee was the guy.

Now, go get Roy Oswalt. Haren is nowhere near Oswalt in my mind. We need a No. 1 and Oswalt is the only guy left. Go get him.

guttle11
07-10-2010, 01:01 PM
Sorry, I look at this as a failure. He was the guy we wanted. We didn't get him. I wish we knew what the hangup was. If we eventually find out it was because we wouldn't part with Mesoraco or Wood or any other specific prospect out there, I'll go from disappointed to angry. This is the year and Lee was the guy.

Now, go get Roy Oswalt. Haren is nowhere near Oswalt in my mind. We need a No. 1 and Oswalt is the only guy left. Go get him.

Problem is three fold:

1. The Astros have to be willing to trade Oswalt within the division

2. Oswalt has to be willing to come to the Reds

3. The Reds have to figure out how to work Oswalt salary into the books while at the same time planning on significant raises for Bruce and Votto. Votto's probably getting a 5-6 year deal this offseason, and maybe the same for Bruce.

Getting Oswalt is very, very unlikely. I think they have a better chance of landing Greinke, and I'd give that about a 1% chance of happening.

KoryMac5
07-10-2010, 01:42 PM
Sorry, I look at this as a failure. He was the guy we wanted. We didn't get him. I wish we knew what the hangup was. If we eventually find out it was because we wouldn't part with Mesoraco or Wood or any other specific prospect out there, I'll go from disappointed to angry. This is the year and Lee was the guy.

Now, go get Roy Oswalt. Haren is nowhere near Oswalt in my mind. We need a No. 1 and Oswalt is the only guy left. Go get him.

The M's wanted Smoak. They had a deal with the Yankees for Lee. When Smoak became available they dropped the Yankee deal. I would imagine that no matter what package the Reds offered (within reason) the M's would have liked a Smoak package better and dropped Walt just like they did Cashman.

mth123
07-10-2010, 02:35 PM
There's a mentailty here that seems to get very angry that there is a bigger picture with a small market team on a budget than going hell-bent for a pure rental with the team's top prospects.

It is frustrating, I will grant. But it is also the reality. If it is too frustraing, the Yankees always have room for more fans. They are a franchise blessed with playing by different rules.

The Lee deal didn't go down because the M's like Smoak as a prospect better for their needs than anything the Reds could give them. You want to blame something, blame Alonso's broken hamate bone a year ago. He's just now, on schedule, getting his power back. If he had been healthy, perhaps he is the better prospect and we get Lee.

I don't know of any poster save one who was, in this or the other thread, advocating hanging onto Alonso. Pretty much all were in agreement he was excess and could be dealt. Problem was, Smoak is better at this point in time.

There feels like a lot of blame and anger in a lot of posts in the wake of last night's disappointing loss tossed at people who were against giving away players this team will need not in "2018", but in 2011 to keep winning. Maybe there is a way to move beyond the anger and understand what the anti-rental-at-all-costs crowd was saying (and that the Reds appeared to subscribe to).

Maybe not.

I'm not big on rentals either, but this is the year IMO. I think the future is bright for the next 5 years but the best guys except for maybe Chapman and Mesoraco (and possibly Cozart) are already on the big league roster. Over the next 5 years I don't see this team getting better seasons from 2B, 3B, LH relief and maybe even Catcher (I'm not a fan of Ramon, but he's been good). Arroyo will likely be gone and the cheap years are coming to an end for Cueto, Votto and Bruce so adding a replacement production may not be affordable. I'd be in favor of dealing some guys for a guy like Lee. An Alonso, Heisey and Wood package would be pricey, but none of those are blue chip players IMO. Alonso isn't Pujols, Howard or Votto. Think more along the lines of Lyle Overbay. Heisey probably winds up with a career something along the lines of Ryan Spilborgs on the low end or Cody Ross at best. Wood is at least a couple cuts below a guy like Ted Lilly. All nice players that any team would be happy to have, but none blue chippers or game changers and probably none who would play ahead of guys already on hand. No deal is guaranteed, but if you can increase the odds in a year which doesn't seem likely to be repeated out of many key areas, go for it IMO. The young core will still be in place.

Falls City Beer
07-10-2010, 02:41 PM
That's some extremely unique player evaluation.

Not really. Other than two years of age, Heisey's likely to be pretty similar in value to Smoak. Heisey plays a more defensively demanding position and he does it really well. Smoak has more power, but Heisey's no slouch in that department. Pretty similar profiles.

jojo
07-10-2010, 02:47 PM
Not really. Other than two years of age, Heisey's likely to be pretty similar in value to Smoak. Heisey plays a more defensively demanding position and he does it really well. Smoak has more power, but Heisey's no slouch in that department. Pretty similar profiles.

I think most GMs would trade Heisey for Smoak consistently and as quickly as possible after being made the offer.

mth123
07-10-2010, 02:54 PM
Smoak/Beaven > Alonso/Wood. But Alonso/Wood/Heisey > than what Seattle got.

Falls City Beer
07-10-2010, 03:14 PM
I think most GMs would trade Heisey for Smoak consistently and as quickly as possible after being made the offer.

Draft position is an incredible enticement, no doubt. GMs get wrapped up in it often to their detriment.

Falls City Beer
07-10-2010, 03:15 PM
Smoak/Beaven > Alonso/Wood. But Alonso/Wood/Heisey > than what Seattle got.

Alonso/Heisey > Smoak/Beaven

And it's not terribly close.

jojo
07-10-2010, 03:54 PM
Draft position is an incredible enticement, no doubt. GMs get wrapped up in it often to their detriment.

Draft position has zero to do with it.

lollipopcurve
07-10-2010, 04:36 PM
Smoak/Beaven > Alonso/Wood.

Disagree. Wood is a far better prospect than Beavan right now, and beyond the fact that Alonso hasn't been promoted yet, I don't see how Smoak has outdistanced himself all that much from Yonder.

Falls City Beer
07-10-2010, 04:45 PM
I don't see how Smoak has outdistanced himself all that much from Yonder.

He hasn't. He was simply lucky enough not to have his hamate smashed.

jojo
07-10-2010, 04:58 PM
He hasn't. He was simply lucky enough not to have his hamate smashed.

Ignoring the bats, Smoak has significant defensive value while Alonso will likely lose value with his leather. There might be as much as a win difference tied to the glove alone.

fearofpopvol1
07-10-2010, 05:12 PM
Ignoring the bats, Smoak has significant defensive value while Alonso will likely lose value with his leather. There might be as much as a win difference tied to the glove alone.

I don't know about that. Alonso certainly isn't all that great with the glove...but from the scouting reports I've read, Smoak isn't all that great defensively either.

Blitz Dorsey
07-10-2010, 05:14 PM
At least Smoak is showing power (yet struggling) on the Major League level. Alonso is a mediocre AAA player. It's easy to see why Smoak has more value (and every team knows that Alonso had a broken hamate bone last year -- I'm sure they are factoring that into the equation).

Only a Reds fan would think Yonder Alonso has much trade value right now. It's not like he was completely tearing the cover off the ball before the injury. And now even more than a year later he isn't tearing it up in the minors.

jojo
07-10-2010, 05:15 PM
I don't know about that. Alonso certainly isn't all that great with the glove...but from the scouting reports I've read, Smoak isn't all that great defensively either.

Could you point us to them?

lollipopcurve
07-10-2010, 05:23 PM
At least Smoak is showing power (yet struggling) on the Major League level.

For a 1B, his slugging has been subpar. And he's been playing in Texas. No doubt he'll get better, but the conditions in Seattle will make it harder to hit for power.

jojo
07-10-2010, 05:26 PM
For a 1B, his slugging has been subpar. And he's been playing in Texas. No doubt he'll get better, but the conditions in Seattle will make it harder to hit for power.

Not for a lefty. But even if it did, the same would apply for Alonso.

Benihana
07-10-2010, 05:31 PM
At least Smoak is showing power (yet struggling) on the Major League level. Alonso is a mediocre AAA player. It's easy to see why Smoak has more value (and every team knows that Alonso had a broken hamate bone last year -- I'm sure they are factoring that into the equation).

Only a Reds fan would think Yonder Alonso has much trade value right now. It's not like he was completely tearing the cover off the ball before the injury. And now even more than a year later he isn't tearing it up in the minors.

This might be something of an overstatement, but I do agree that Alonso has been a general disappointment thus far. I do think he will continue to improve though- he almost has to.

I said I'd take Smoak over Alonso when they were drafted and I'd still take Smoak over Alonso today.

savafan
07-10-2010, 05:34 PM
I said I'd take Smoak over Alonso when they were drafted and I'd still take Smoak over Alonso today.

Surprisingly, a scout I spoke with last year said that he believed that Alonso was a better looking hitter than Votto at the same age. I disagree, but I don't work in baseball...

TheNext44
07-10-2010, 05:56 PM
Smoak/Beaven > Alonso/Wood. But Alonso/Wood/Heisey > than what Seattle got.

I agree on all counts, but I understand why Walt never made either offer. I don't think he was willing to offer any player that was a part of this season's team.

I think the Reds, like every other team, never went above one blue chip plus fodder. Hicks/Ramos was the closest to two blue chips I heard, and no one knew if it was real, but regardless, neither were close enough to the majors for the M's.

It came down to Smoak> every other top prospect being offered in the M's mind.

fearofpopvol1
07-10-2010, 05:57 PM
Could you point us to them?

I admit, I'm a little short on time at the moment, but here's 1 to tide you over for now (from MLB.com)...

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2008/reports.jsp?content=smoak

"He's not bad around the base with good hands."

"The lack of footspeed and heavy lower half provide very limited range."

"he's limited defensively to first base."

_Sir_Charles_
07-11-2010, 12:08 AM
Lee made his Ranger debut tonight against the lowly Orioles (sorry Heather, no offense).

He pitched a complete game. A 6-1 loss to the O's. All 6 runs earned, 3 hr's allowed. But on the bright side, still no walks and a CG in under 100 pitches. Still the O's though. Tillman had a no-hitter thru 6 for the O's.

savafan
07-11-2010, 12:11 AM
Lee made his Ranger debut tonight against the lowly Orioles (sorry Heather, no offense).

He pitched a complete game. A 6-1 loss to the O's. All 6 runs earned, 3 hr's allowed. But on the bright side, still no walks and a CG in under 100 pitches. Still the O's though. Tillman had a no-hitter thru 6 for the O's.

Kinda poetic isn't it?

fearofpopvol1
07-11-2010, 12:14 AM
I think that a Alonso/Wood package with a few other finge prospects tops the Rangers package honestly. Wood is a legit MLB ready pitcher. And Alonso will be ready for the bigs by the end of this year.

TheNext44
07-11-2010, 01:34 AM
Lee made his Ranger debut tonight against the lowly Orioles (sorry Heather, no offense).

He pitched a complete game. A 6-1 loss to the O's. All 6 runs earned, 3 hr's allowed. But on the bright side, still no walks and a CG in under 100 pitches. Still the O's though. Tillman had a no-hitter thru 6 for the O's.

I said during the trade discussions that Lee would not be the starting pitcher who is traded this season who helps his team the most. 3 HR's have to scare the Rangers. Very homer friendly park. It ain't Safeco.

TheNext44
07-11-2010, 01:37 AM
Wouldn't it be funny if Wood actually had a better second half to this season than Lee? Not out of the realm of possibility.

Cedric
07-11-2010, 01:37 AM
I said during the trade discussions that Lee would not be the starting pitcher who is traded this season who helps his team the most. 3 HR's have to scare the Rangers. Very homer friendly park. It ain't Safeco.

It's one start. The guy wasn't exactly bad in Citizens Bank or old Jacobs.

HeatherC1212
07-11-2010, 02:17 AM
Lee made his Ranger debut tonight against the lowly Orioles (sorry Heather, no offense).

He pitched a complete game. A 6-1 loss to the O's. All 6 runs earned, 3 hr's allowed. But on the bright side, still no walks and a CG in under 100 pitches. Still the O's though. Tillman had a no-hitter thru 6 for the O's.

No offense taken. The O's have had a TOUGH year so far but they're starting to get a little healthy, getting guys back, and their young pitchers are starting to step up a little bit (love that Tillman pitched a total gem tonight). I love that it was a team with one of the worst records in baseball that ruined Cliff Lee's night. That's just outstanding. :D

BTW-They said on BBTN that Lee's overall ERA in the Rangers stadium is over 7.00. I hope he doesn't have to pitch at home much. Yikes! :eek: (GABP was third on the list with a 4.63. I enjoyed seeing that! :))

jojo
07-11-2010, 08:18 AM
It's one start. The guy wasn't exactly bad in Citizens Bank or old Jacobs.

And its not like he might have been distracted by something that happened in the last 24 hrs too.... :cool:

Eric_the_Red
07-11-2010, 09:11 AM
Wouldn't it be funny if Wood actually had a better second half to this season than Lee? Not out of the realm of possibility.


Yes, yes it is. ;)

Reminds me of "Dumb & Dumber":
"More like one in a million."
"So you're saying there's a chance!"

jojo
07-11-2010, 09:16 AM
Wouldn't it be funny if Wood actually had a better second half to this season than Lee? Not out of the realm of possibility.

It's also not in the realm of very likely either. :cool:

Benihana
07-12-2010, 10:39 AM
What The Mariners Wanted For Cliff Lee
By Tim Dierkes [July 12 at 8:27am CST]

Annoyed your favorite team didn't strike a deal with the Mariners for Cliff Lee? At least consider the details of Jack Zduriencik's high asking price, as reported by Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

According to Sherman, the Mariners general manager set out to acquire "an interested organization's best position prospect with less than one year of service." He was offered none better than the Rangers' Justin Smoak. The Yankees' Jesus Montero was apparently the next-best position prospect offered. Zduriencik also targeted players such as Ike Davis of the Mets, Desmond Jennings of the Rays, Domonic Brown of the Phillies, Gordon Beckham of the White Sox, and Brett Lawrie (who would've had to have come from the Brewers in a three-way deal). Sherman notes that the Mets never offered a player better than Fernando Martinez; Jenrry Mejia and Wilmer Flores "were never part of discussions."

Interesting that there is no report on Reds prospects (although it is a NY paper). Maybe the Reds were negotiating with the Brewers over Lawrie?

www.mlbtraderumors.com

REDREAD
07-12-2010, 02:37 PM
I just can't see how this team is going to get enough strong innings from just bullpen acquisitions. The problem is deeper than that.

Reds' team ERA ranks 12th in the NL, between the Nats and Astros. There aren't enough bodies in the Reds' system to turn that ship around.

Ramon gimping, Rolen gimping. Time to re-assess. Take a different tack.

You have a good point.. I think we only have a one game lead on the Cards now after Philly ate us alive.

I still think we can win either the wildcard or division with some bullpen help. We aren't going to win the NL pennant without a lot more, but I think making the playoffs is still worth trying.

Since Lee is gone, there's not a whole lot of impact pitching left. Maybe Oswalt... I'm not sure that picking up a #3/#4 starter really helps our chances of making the playoffs at this point. If Harang comes back, we are in pretty decent shape, even if we get nothing out of Volquez.. Arroyo/Ceuto/Leake/Wood/Harang is pretty solid and there's not a whole out there which would dramatically upgrade that staff (other than Oswalt .. I'm assuming Haren and Carmona would take a king's ransom at this point..probably even more than it would cost to get Lee).

On the other hand, if the team can add an impact bullpen arm or two, that could dramatically change the team. Guys like Ordonsek are getting put in high leverage situations and failing.

LoganBuck
07-12-2010, 03:23 PM
Interesting that there is no report on Reds prospects (although it is a NY paper). Maybe the Reds were negotiating with the Brewers over Lawrie?

www.mlbtraderumors.com

Walt probably used a Jedi mind trick to erase all memory of his discussions.

membengal
07-12-2010, 04:45 PM
Seattle GM Jack Z may not have been very forthcoming with his bosses over one acquisition in the trade...

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2012335914_the_politics_of_crime_baseball.html

Cedric
07-12-2010, 04:48 PM
Seattle GM Jack Z may not have been very forthcoming with his bosses over one acquisition in the trade...

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2012335914_the_politics_of_crime_baseball.html

I hope the guy never sees a MLB field. That's just me.

hebroncougar
07-12-2010, 05:09 PM
Seattle GM Jack Z may not have been very forthcoming with his bosses over one acquisition in the trade...

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2012335914_the_politics_of_crime_baseball.html

He's actually a local kid.

Stephenk29
07-17-2010, 08:38 PM
He's actually a local kid.

Played with him a long, long time. Kinda crazy to read that.

TheNext44
07-17-2010, 11:19 PM
Lee pitched a strong game tonight, but the Rangers still lost.

So far, two starts for the Rangers, two losses for the Rangers.

OnBaseMachine
07-31-2010, 04:22 PM
The Mariners are sending Justin Smoak to AAA after going 2-for-38 to start his Mariners career.

I still think the Reds could have topped the Rangers off. IMO, Alonso + Bailey + Donnie Joseph beats the Rangers deal. Reds could have tossed in another lower prospect too. Lee would have locked the NL Central up, IMO.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 04:25 PM
The Mariners are sending Justin Smoak to AAA after going 2-for-38 to start his Mariners career.

I still think the Reds could have topped the Rangers off. IMO, Alonso + Bailey + Donnie Joseph beats the Rangers deal. Reds could have tossed in another lower prospect too. Lee would have locked the NL Central up, IMO.

Mariners are a pretty terrible franchise right now. There were a number of better offers on the table for Lee.

jojo
07-31-2010, 04:46 PM
Mariners are a pretty terrible franchise right now. There were a number of better offers on the table for Lee.

The Ms got exactly what they wanted. They hit a homerun.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 04:49 PM
The Ms got exactly what they wanted.

I'm sure they did.

jojo
07-31-2010, 05:34 PM
I'm sure they did.

If one takes the time to examine the details, it's tough to argue the Ms are a terrible franchise and this is especially if one uses the Lee-Smoak trade as a prism...

As an aside, could you provide a list of each offer in the list comprising the number of better offers that were on the table?

I can see someone preferring the Yanks apparent offer over the Rangers offer-both centerpieces would be considered a no brainer additions to any major league franchise-but it's also easy to construct an argument that the Rangers offer is a better fit for the Ms and certainly the Ms FO agreed...

So really, "Im sure they did" really has little snark factor without clearly demonstrating why the implicit "but they clearly didn't know what they were doing" has any traction (which it doesn't).

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 05:37 PM
If one takes the time to examine the details, it's tough to argue the Ms are a terrible franchise and this is especially if one uses the Lee-Smoak trade as a prism...

As an aside, could you provide a list of each offer in the list comprising the number of better offers that were on the table?

I can see someone preferring the Yanks apparent offer over the Rangers offer but it's also easy to construct an argument that the Rangers offer is a better fit for the Ms and certainly the Ms FO agreed...

I know you have tremendous faith in their methods. It's laudable.

Given all the time in the world, I'm sure the M's will be quite good.

jojo
07-31-2010, 05:38 PM
I know you have tremendous faith in their methods. It's laudable.

Given all the time in the world, I'm sure the M's will be quite good.

Again platitudes ultimately aren't edifying to a discussion.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 05:40 PM
Again platitudes ultimately aren't edifying to a discussion.

It's an opinion. I could point to their record the last couple of seasons if you'd like.

jojo
07-31-2010, 05:42 PM
It's an opinion. I could point to their record the last couple of seasons if you'd like.

In other words, you can't be bothered with the details....

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 05:43 PM
In other words, you can't be bothered with the details....

Sure.

edabbs44
08-01-2010, 10:48 PM
So Texas is 2-3 in Lee's 5 starts and Philly is 0-1 so far in Oswalt's one start. Starting pitchers are such a crapshoot when acquiring at the deadline, because their bottom line effect on the acquiring team is W-L and that is so dependent on so many other things. Obviously better pitching is better for the team and gives you a better chance at winning, but how crappy would it be to go all out for a guy and see the team go 4-6 in his 10 starts down the stretch?

I'd be curious to see a study on the effect big bats have in comparison to big arms acquired down the stretch. I wonder if going all out for an arm is really worth it when you factor everything in.

Tony Cloninger
08-01-2010, 10:55 PM
Lee is not pitching badly....the Rangers are just not scoring any runs for him.

RedLegSuperStar
08-01-2010, 10:57 PM
The Mariners told fans when they got Smoak to be patient.. The M's didn't take long to be patient. He was over matched and I don't know if Alonso would of been better but he sure has been tearing up AAA as of late.

TheNext44
08-01-2010, 10:57 PM
So Texas is 2-3 in Lee's 5 starts and Philly is 0-1 so far in Oswalt's one start. Starting pitchers are such a crapshoot when acquiring at the deadline, because their bottom line effect on the acquiring team is W-L and that is so dependent on so many other things. Obviously better pitching is better for the team and gives you a better chance at winning, but how crappy would it be to go all out for a guy and see the team go 4-6 in his 10 starts down the stretch?

I'd be curious to see a study on the effect big bats have in comparison to big arms acquired down the stretch. I wonder if going all out for an arm is really worth it when you factor everything in.

Angels are 0-2 in Haren's starts. For the big three, their new teams are a combined 2-6 in the games they started.

Thing is, as a group, they have pitched up to expectations, which makes your point even stronger. I have no idea what the numbers really are, but I have to think that deadlines deals rarely affect the standings at the end of the season, probably well under 50% of the time.

jojo
08-01-2010, 11:30 PM
The Mariners told fans when they got Smoak to be patient.. The M's didn't take long to be patient. He was over matched and I don't know if Alonso would of been better but he sure has been tearing up AAA as of late.

Smoak to AAA really signals zilch for his outlook and how he factors into the Ms plans for him.

HokieRed
08-01-2010, 11:34 PM
Smoak to AAA really signals zilch for his outlook and how he factors into the Ms plans for him.

Agree. Smoak's going to be a fine player, not quite, IMO, Alonso but still a very good player. Rangers forced him too early.

Scrap Irony
08-02-2010, 12:04 AM
I realize jojo is a HUGE M's fan and he loves their GM, but, man, they've had a horrid offseason and an even worse in-season:

Lee was a great trade, but they sent him away for, basically, an underperforming 1B with major questions about his bat and two less than stellar prospects.

If that's a homerun, then you're playing in a Little League park.

The Figgins acquisition was so bad that they're looking to get out from under his contract less than a year after signing him.

Ditto the deal for Bradley.

The Garko and Kotchman platoon was so bad that it didn't even last the year before they dealt for two other 1B, one of which they got rid of last offseason in favor of Garko and Kotchman.

They also signed Eric Byrnes as a free agent before releasing him in early May.

I've never seen a team try and undo an offseason after less than a season, but Seattle sure is trying.

jojo
08-02-2010, 07:14 AM
I realize jojo is a HUGE M's fan and he loves their GM, but, man, they've had a horrid offseason and an even worse in-season:

Lee was a great trade, but they sent him away for, basically, an underperforming 1B with major questions about his bat and two less than stellar prospects.

If that's a homerun, then you're playing in a Little League park.

The Figgins acquisition was so bad that they're looking to get out from under his contract less than a year after signing him.

Ditto the deal for Bradley.

The Garko and Kotchman platoon was so bad that it didn't even last the year before they dealt for two other 1B, one of which they got rid of last offseason in favor of Garko and Kotchman.

They also signed Eric Byrnes as a free agent before releasing him in early May.

I've never seen a team try and undo an offseason after less than a season, but Seattle sure is trying.

Without even pointing out the things that are just factually incorrect, there's not much in this post that is actually proof of the erroneous conclusion. Context is kind of an important thing.

edabbs44
08-02-2010, 08:15 AM
Lee is not pitching badly....the Rangers are just not scoring any runs for him.

but that is kind of my point. When you get a pitcher for a small amt of time, so much can happen that could skew the effect they have on the team. For a team looking for help getting into the playoffs, they might be better served upgrading at a spot where they could contribute to more than 10 games down the stretch, where luck could significantly reduce their effect on those games

Eric_the_Red
08-02-2010, 01:20 PM
but that is kind of my point. When you get a pitcher for a small amt of time, so much can happen that could skew the effect they have on the team. For a team looking for help getting into the playoffs, they might be better served upgrading at a spot where they could contribute to more than 10 games down the stretch, where luck could significantly reduce their effect on those games


But you have to look beyond just Lee's 10 starts. If in those starts he pitches into the 8th or 9th innings, then that is a lot of innings saved off the bullpen arms. Perhaps that extra rest allows them to pitch more effectively in games where they are needed.

So maybe the Rangers only win 2 more games of our the 10 that Lee pitches in, but perhaps the rested bullpen gives them another 2-3 wins. That 4-5 win difference could be huge down the stretch.

Plus there is the potential psychological effect on the rest of the team as they begin to look and feel like more of a contender. Not to mention, they have Cliff Lee going in game 1 of every post-season series.

edabbs44
08-02-2010, 01:34 PM
But you have to look beyond just Lee's 10 starts. If in those starts he pitches into the 8th or 9th innings, then that is a lot of innings saved off the bullpen arms. Perhaps that extra rest allows them to pitch more effectively in games where they are needed.

So maybe the Rangers only win 2 more games of our the 10 that Lee pitches in, but perhaps the rested bullpen gives them another 2-3 wins. That 4-5 win difference could be huge down the stretch.

Plus there is the potential psychological effect on the rest of the team as they begin to look and feel like more of a contender. Not to mention, they have Cliff Lee going in game 1 of every post-season series.

I agree on the playoff game 1 benefit, but I'm not sure about the bullpen benefit being of that magnitude.

Eric_the_Red
08-02-2010, 01:42 PM
I agree on the playoff game 1 benefit, but I'm not sure about the bullpen benefit being of that magnitude.

I probably overstated the bullpen benefit, but it is a benefit (and one that is impossible to quantify). However, getting Lee gives a team a better chance to win in those 10 games than before.

On most teams, Lee would become the best starter, and he would obviously replace the worst starter. If Lee wins 60% of his starts, and the worst starter wins 30% of his starts, then you've given your team about 3 more wins down the stretch. (I'm just throwing those numbers out, but they seem reasonable.) In a pennant race, 3 games is HUGE (not to mention the other benefits we've covered).

RedsManRick
08-02-2010, 02:00 PM
The pro-rated value of a starter is no different than the pro-rated value of a position player. The same concerns about the concentration of value are just as valid over a full season.

While it's possible that the pitcher's influence won't be felt b/c the offense doesn't score many runs, it's similar possible that the pitcher will have a massive influence (see Sabathia, CC).

But while a position player can influence every game, the scope of his influence is pretty limited in any given game. When you look at it, both players are going to get something like 10-15% of the team's PA/IP/Defensive Innings.

edabbs44
08-02-2010, 02:09 PM
Reds when Cueto is on the mound this year: 13-8

Reds when Homer/Wood/EV/Maloney are the starter: 12-9

obviously just one example and only the first one I looked at, but pretty amazing, no? I just wonder how much of an effect these hired guns typically have over a 2 month span. Is it really worth a top shelf prospect?

RedLegSuperStar
08-02-2010, 02:31 PM
Smoak to AAA really signals zilch for his outlook and how he factors into the Ms plans for him.

Alex Gordon part deux

Cedric
08-02-2010, 02:38 PM
Alex Gordon part deux

Pat Burell, Ben Grieve..

Solid players that crush bad pitchers. Not enough bat speed to adjust.

Hoosier Red
08-02-2010, 02:49 PM
So Texas is 2-3 in Lee's 5 starts and Philly is 0-1 so far in Oswalt's one start. Starting pitchers are such a crapshoot when acquiring at the deadline, because their bottom line effect on the acquiring team is W-L and that is so dependent on so many other things. Obviously better pitching is better for the team and gives you a better chance at winning, but how crappy would it be to go all out for a guy and see the team go 4-6 in his 10 starts down the stretch?

I'd be curious to see a study on the effect big bats have in comparison to big arms acquired down the stretch. I wonder if going all out for an arm is really worth it when you factor everything in.

That's a great question Ed, the biggest issue I had with trying to trade for a big gun relief pitcher is that in such a small sample size of innings, it's impossible to take the random statistical uncertainty out of the equation.
Starting pitching is the same way in that in the 10 starts a guy is going to make in August/September, there's just so much randomness that the pitcher can't control for, that it's hard to correlate with an improved won-loss record.

While it's true that Cliff Lee hasn't pitched poorly in the games he's lost, the losses are the same. Whether Cliff Lee was pitching and they lost 2-0 or some AAA scrub was pitching and they lost 5-0, it's still a loss. Over the course of a season or certainly many seasons Cliff Lee is going to out produce the AAA scrub, and the team is likely to win many more games. But over the course of 10 starts, there just isn't that much of an improvement in the chances at winning IMO.

Hoosier Red
08-02-2010, 02:52 PM
I probably overstated the bullpen benefit, but it is a benefit (and one that is impossible to quantify). However, getting Lee gives a team a better chance to win in those 10 games than before.

On most teams, Lee would become the best starter, and he would obviously replace the worst starter. If Lee wins 60% of his starts, and the worst starter wins 30% of his starts, then you've given your team about 3 more wins down the stretch. (I'm just throwing those numbers out, but they seem reasonable.) In a pennant race, 3 games is HUGE (not to mention the other benefits we've covered).
But the 10 game sample is just not conducive to saying 3 games is accurate.
The worst starter may have his best stretch of 5 games in that 10. Cliff Lee may have his worst stretch of 5 starts and all of a sudden it's more like 50/50.

edabbs44
08-02-2010, 03:20 PM
But the 10 game sample is just not conducive to saying 3 games is accurate.
The worst starter may have his best stretch of 5 games in that 10. Cliff Lee may have his worst stretch of 5 starts and all of a sudden it's more like 50/50.

See my example of Cueto v Reds #5 hodgepodge.

bucksfan2
08-02-2010, 03:20 PM
The pro-rated value of a starter is no different than the pro-rated value of a position player. The same concerns about the concentration of value are just as valid over a full season.

While it's possible that the pitcher's influence won't be felt b/c the offense doesn't score many runs, it's similar possible that the pitcher will have a massive influence (see Sabathia, CC).

But while a position player can influence every game, the scope of his influence is pretty limited in any given game. When you look at it, both players are going to get something like 10-15% of the team's PA/IP/Defensive Innings.

I can't buy this. I understand the argument but a pitcher can only influence one game every 3-4-5 days. A position player can influence every game plays in. It may not be the kind of impact that a pitcher can have on his one game, but a position player who gets hot can carry an offense over the course of a couple of weeks.