PDA

View Full Version : Cliff Lee Discussion (Acquired by TEX)



Pages : [1] 2 3 4

OnBaseMachine
07-08-2010, 12:15 AM
With permissing from a mod, I'm starting a new thread since this is fairly big news, plus the other Cliff Lee thread is getting long. Jon Morosi says the Reds are motivated to acquire Lee and have begun exchanging names with the Mariners:


One year after the Indians dealt him to the Phillies, the other team in Ohio would like to acquire Cliff Lee.

A number of people in the industry say the Cincinnati Reds are motivated to get Lee – and have the prospects to entice the Mariners.

Cincinnati has become a “sleeper” team in the Lee sweepstakes, one rival general manager said Wednesday. A separate source said the teams have exchanged names “in preliminary fashion” but have yet to discuss firm proposals.



Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik was fond of Alonso leading up to the 2008 draft, when the Reds selected him in the first round. After a disappointing June, Alonso is batting .379 with three home runs in his first seven games of July.



http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/MLB-latest-news-from-July-070110

westofyou
07-08-2010, 12:29 AM
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100707&content_id=12028804&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb



The industry feel is that the Twins are the leaders for Lee with catcher Wilson Ramos (.208, .573 OPS in Triple-A), a current member of the starting rotation and perhaps a prospect such as Aaron Hicks as potential return for Seattle. The Yankees hover. The Reds have Yonder Alonso for a bat, Major League-ready pitching and catcher Devin Mesoraco. The Mets are trying to stay in. So are the Cardinals.

VR
07-08-2010, 12:32 AM
The time is now. I would do backflips to barbados if Mesaraco and Alonso are the primary players involved.

Redmachine2003
07-08-2010, 12:47 AM
The time is now. I would do backflips to barbados if Mesaraco and Alonso are the primary players involved.

Not me. The Reds are finally building a good team through out the system and I dont want them to start trading away their prospects for players that will cost to much for them to keep anyway and cost us players like Votto in the long run.

kaldaniels
07-08-2010, 12:50 AM
Not me. The Reds are finally building a good team through out the system and I dont want them to start trading away their prospects for players that will cost to much for them to keep anyway and cost us players like Votto in the long run.

And when Cliff Lee shuts down the Reds in their first postseason in 15 years, maybe your mind will change. Look, everyone has a chance in the playoffs, but if you have a top-shelf pitcher, you can basically shorten the series in your favor (or neutralize a C.C.,Halladay,Carpenter,etc.)

11larkin11
07-08-2010, 12:50 AM
For me, even with Grandal, I'm not really into the idea of trading Mesoraco. Wood is probably out as well, and Chapman. Outside of those 3, I'm down.

VR
07-08-2010, 01:04 AM
Not me. The Reds are finally building a good team through out the system and I dont want them to start trading away their prospects for players that will cost to much for them to keep anyway and cost us players like Votto in the long run.

That's just it. They have a ton of depth....but how many positions will be open in the next 5 years? 1b, 2b, CF, RF, C, 4 possibly 5 starters are blocked right now.

The chemistry and makeup of this team, this year....is poised to go for at all. They can't think of doing that without a stud TOR starter. Cliff Lee is there for the taking. We can worry about 2015 at a later time.

fugowitribe
07-08-2010, 01:10 AM
I can't help but think of Homer Bailey in this situation. Is a prospect later better than a solid thing now? Homer could have been a key piece of many trades years ago, when this team needed a bat or a TOR guy. Instead we are still waiting for the playoffs. Time is up. If playoffs now means no playoffs in 2015 so be it. If you have to give them the Louiville organization for Cliff Lee, DO IT. WE HAVE WAITED LONG ENOUGH!!!!

dougdirt
07-08-2010, 01:19 AM
I am willing to trade any 3 prospects in the system not on this list for Cliff Lee:
Travis Wood
Devin Mesoraco
Aroldis Chapman
Yorman Rodriguez
Billy Hamilton

If that can't get it done, then its not worth the price we will pay.

dougdirt
07-08-2010, 01:21 AM
I can't help but think of Homer Bailey in this situation. Is a prospect later better than a solid thing now? Homer could have been a key piece of many trades years ago, when this team needed a bat or a TOR guy. Instead we are still waiting for the playoffs. Time is up. If playoffs now means no playoffs in 2015 so be it. If you have to give them the Louiville organization for Cliff Lee, DO IT. WE HAVE WAITED LONG ENOUGH!!!!

So was Joey Votto and Joe Blanton.... heck, some wanted to trade both Votto and one of Bailey/Cueto for Blanton. Sometimes the best deal is saying no.

fugowitribe
07-08-2010, 01:24 AM
So was Joey Votto and Joe Blanton.... heck, some wanted to trade both Votto and one of Bailey/Cueto for Blanton. Sometimes the best deal is saying no.

I agree, but Joe Blanton and Cliff Lee are apples and oranges. I am impatient. I want the Playoffs.

dougdirt
07-08-2010, 01:27 AM
I agree, but Joe Blanton and Cliff Lee are apples and oranges. I am impatient. I want the Playoffs.

Sure they are apples and oranges, but the impatience leading to bad decisions might not be. Acquiring Lee isn't a bad decision, but giving up way too much for him could be.

fearofpopvol1
07-08-2010, 01:33 AM
Remember how the Reds also offered Votto and Bailey for 2 years of Bedard? But the O's were insistent on Bruce? Yikes. Glad that 1 didn't go through!

mdccclxix
07-08-2010, 01:34 AM
I agree with Doug. In fact, I hope we don't have any kind of a deal until after the ASG. His value will diminish that much more, the bargaining will come towards the middle, and the Reds can hang on to that list Doug just posted. With so many bidders, it will likely come down to luck of the draw, Jack Z likes your prospects, or you will have to gouge your farm more than the next. I don't know if it's worth it on 7/7 to go that far.

fearofpopvol1
07-08-2010, 01:35 AM
I am willing to trade any 3 prospects in the system not on this list for Cliff Lee:
Travis Wood
Devin Mesoraco
Aroldis Chapman
Yorman Rodriguez
Billy Hamilton

If that can't get it done, then its not worth the price we will pay.

I'm sort of in the same camp...but I think I would reluctantly move Wood (with Alonso) if that got it done. I would just hope the M's might send something useful back...a pen arm or something.

I am concerned about the thought of giving up Mesoraco though.

tripleaaaron
07-08-2010, 02:40 AM
I feel pretty much the same way as I would give up anyone but Mez, Chapman or Yorman. I like the idea of bringing in a useful bullpen guy but that would involve adding a 3rd team as the Mariners bullpen is awful.

Orenda
07-08-2010, 04:47 AM
I am willing to trade any 3 prospects in the system not on this list for Cliff Lee:
Travis Wood
Devin Mesoraco
Aroldis Chapman
Yorman Rodriguez
Billy Hamilton

If that can't get it done, then its not worth the price we will pay.

I got to say that I'm a little surprised that you don't have Zach Cozart on that list. He would not be a player I would move. He is showing consistent power, his BB rate is down from last year but it is still workable and he can handle ss defensively at a low cost. After considering the fact that he is close to ML ready and the reds don't have any other viable alternatives at ss for the near future outside of free agency, he would be on my untouchable list.

nemesis
07-08-2010, 04:52 AM
I'm just gonna ask, there is no way on earth Walt would deal Bruce straight up for Lee? I'm not asking because I'm suggesting, I am asking because I keep hearing and reading little things that make me a little nervous. I mean there is noooo possible way right?

BearcatShane
07-08-2010, 04:54 AM
I'm just gonna ask, there is no way on earth Walt would deal Bruce straight up for Lee? I'm not asking because I'm suggesting, I am asking because I keep hearing and reading little things that make me a little nervous. I mean there is noooo possible way right?

There is no way that happens. IMO, the only major league guys Walt would consider dealing are Heisey and Wood.

GAC
07-08-2010, 05:00 AM
You're basically giving up good prospects for a 2-3 month rental, because IMO there is no way Lee resigns here. Not impossible, but improbable IMO.

And Volquez is returning at some point after the AS break.

nemesis
07-08-2010, 05:13 AM
Pretend we give up Alonso, Francisco and Soto for Lee.

By August 1st these guys should be ready to go.

Arroyo
Harang
Cueto
Volquez
Leake

Then you have
Lee (Ace)
Bailey (out of options)
Wood (AAA)
Maloney (AAA)
LeCure (AAA)

So who goes from the rotation? What do you do with them? What do you do with Bailey?

mth123
07-08-2010, 06:35 AM
Pretend we give up Alonso, Francisco and Soto for Lee.

By August 1st these guys should be ready to go.

Arroyo
Harang
Cueto
Volquez
Leake

Then you have
Lee (Ace)
Bailey (out of options)
Wood (AAA)
Maloney (AAA)
LeCure (AAA)

So who goes from the rotation? What do you do with them? What do you do with Bailey?


I seriously doubt that Bailey is back before September. He's not throwing off a mound yet, probably won't be ready for a rehab until August 1st and if his arm doesn't have more pain, he probably rehabs for the full 30 days and slides into Leake's spot when Leake needs shut down in September. He may get shut down himself with Wood, Maloney or Whoever is left taking over.

Lee
Arroyo
Cueto
Volquez/Wood
Leake/Bailey

As for the prospects for Lee debate, I'd happily deal Wood, Alonso and a lesser guy (Vailaka, Fisher, Sappelt, Sulbaran, whoever) and deal Harang for a replacement prospect or two, Maybe lesser caliber, but add a guy for Harang and get 2 picks when Lee goes and losing prospects who are blocked by a crowd in front of them doesn't hurt so much. I keep Chapman, Mes, Cozart, Y-Rod and Hamilton. Keep Heisey if you can, but his only possible spot is LF and Gomes and Dickerson will be back and guys like Frazier, Dorn, etc might be options there as well. I'm not sure how much he'll play if he's kept and I wouldn't lose out on Lee over insisting on keeping Heisey. I probably wouldn't deal all three of Alonso, Wood and Heisey for Lee but two of the three would be OK. Alonso, Heisey and Maloney might work, but I question whether Seattle has interest in Maloney. Since position players seem like a higher priority for them a deal with Alonso and Heisey as the two primary guys and a near ready back-end arm thrown-in might work.

If Harang gets dealt and say Maloney as well, Wood and Volquez may share a spot while Bailey slides in for Leake in September.

jojo
07-08-2010, 07:16 AM
I'm just gonna ask, there is no way on earth Walt would deal Bruce straight up for Lee? I'm not asking because I'm suggesting, I am asking because I keep hearing and reading little things that make me a little nervous. I mean there is noooo possible way right?

There is zero chance that happens.

The Operator
07-08-2010, 07:24 AM
And Volquez is returning at some point after the AS break.

Yes, but you want to depend on Volquez - a guy with command issues when he's at his best, and coming off of Tommy John Surgery - to be the pitching influx that gets The Reds over the hump?

I'll take Cliff Lee any day.

I've seen so many prospects go through this minor league system that come and ultimately go - I want The Reds to make a real trade this time. This team has a +50 run differential, they aren't getting by on smoke and mirrors. This is a team that can go some places with a guy like Cliff Lee. He's worth it.

lollipopcurve
07-08-2010, 07:44 AM
Alonso or Francisco, not both.

No Wood, Chapman, Mesoraco or Yorman (also, holding back Cozart is a good idea).

The Ms could still fashion a nice package. Remember, this is a rental -- teams tend not to get 2 blue chippers for a rental.

HokieRed
07-08-2010, 07:56 AM
Alonso or Francisco, not both.

No Wood, Chapman, Mesoraco or Yorman (also, holding back Cozart is a good idea).

The Ms could still fashion a nice package. Remember, this is a rental -- teams tend not to get 2 blue chippers for a rental.


Francisco, not Alonso. It continues to surprise me how willing RZers are to ship off Alonso while protecting Yorman, Mez etc.--both of whom I'd not want to part with either actually. But look at what Alonso's doing recently at Louisville and I know all the stuff about small sample size etc. He's 23, tearing up AAA right now, coming off an injury that's not quick to come back from for a hitter. If uncertainty about prospects is one of the arguments for dealing them, it gets to be a weaker argument every day regarding Alonso, who's taking the uncertainty out of it. The kid can hit, and I hope he does it in Cinti. (I'd also like to keep Francisco)

cumberlandreds
07-08-2010, 08:09 AM
Francisco, not Alonso. It continues to surprise me how willing RZers are to ship off Alonso while protecting Yorman, Mez etc.--both of whom I'd not want to part with either actually. But look at what Alonso's doing recently at Louisville and I know all the stuff about small sample size etc. He's 23, tearing up AAA right now, coming off an injury that's not quick to come back from for a hitter. If uncertainty about prospects is one of the arguments for dealing them, it gets to be a weaker argument every day regarding Alonso, who's taking the uncertainty out of it. The kid can hit, and I hope he does it in Cinti. (I'd also like to keep Francisco)

The thing about Alonso is that his only position seems to be 1B. The Reds have a pretty good young first baseman that should be around for years.
Mesoraco would be the one I would be most hesitant to trade now. He has really come on this year. Really good catcher's are hard to produce in the minors and I would hang on to him. The Twins I would think have the best shot at Lee since it seems they are willing to part with their minor league catcher. They certainly have a great catcher already at the MLB level.

Caveat Emperor
07-08-2010, 08:10 AM
Francisco, not Alonso. It continues to surprise me how willing RZers are to ship off Alonso while protecting Yorman, Mez etc.--both of whom I'd not want to part with either actually. But look at what Alonso's doing recently at Louisville and I know all the stuff about small sample size etc. He's 23, tearing up AAA right now, coming off an injury that's not quick to come back from for a hitter. If uncertainty about prospects is one of the arguments for dealing them, it gets to be a weaker argument every day regarding Alonso, who's taking the uncertainty out of it. The kid can hit, and I hope he does it in Cinti. (I'd also like to keep Francisco)

Where is Alonso going to play? From the reports I've seen, his defense isn't good enough to play in LF, and he isn't taking a spot from Votto at 1b. That doesn't leave a lot of options for an NL team.

HokieRed
07-08-2010, 08:23 AM
On Alonso. It's 1. Completely an assumption that Votto is here beyond his arb years. 2. As I've understood it, the book is still out on his play in LF. 3. Votto's great year this year doesn't mean it might not still be in the best interest of the team to move him to LF next year. He can be a great left fielder on a team with three incredibly wicked left handed bats in the middle of the lineup.

chicoruiz
07-08-2010, 08:24 AM
Wonder if some sort of three-way deal might work- say, with us sending pitching to the Twins for Ramos, then shipping him with Alonso to Seattle...just thinking out loud.

dunner13
07-08-2010, 08:33 AM
Wonder if some sort of three-way deal might work- say, with us sending pitching to the Twins for Ramos, then shipping him with Alonso to Seattle...just thinking out loud.

I dont think the twins are going to give up their best prospect to help someone else get lee. The twins just like us are looking for a top starter to lead them through the playoffs so they would probably have very little intrest in travis wood.

Falls City Beer
07-08-2010, 08:41 AM
It's a good thing that it appears to be the Twins who are the Reds' biggest rivals for Lee; they are a deeply unadventurous team when it comes to trades, so it's not likely they'll be the ones to kick in the second blue chip prospect. What everyone should worry about is the Cards' doing so; they have no problem going for it. And they have the division/NL/World championships to prove it.

lollipopcurve
07-08-2010, 08:42 AM
On Alonso. It's 1. Completely an assumption that Votto is here beyond his arb years. 2. As I've understood it, the book is still out on his play in LF. 3. Votto's great year this year doesn't mean it might not still be in the best interest of the team to move him to LF next year. He can be a great left fielder on a team with three incredibly wicked left handed bats in the middle of the lineup.

The point re: Votto flying the coop is a legitimate one. However, I am confident Jocketty would not let Alonso go without some assurance from Votto's camp that they are receptive to a LTC offer. You can see with the whole "Vote Votto" campaign that the organization is interested in keeping him around. I am as sensitive as anyone to the risks of blowing up the future for the sake of acquiring a rental, but I am not concerned that the team would muff their 1B situation like you suggest they could.

Votto is not moving to LF. Just like Phillips is not moving to SS.

RedLegSuperStar
07-08-2010, 08:43 AM
Mesoraco is struggling at the AA level.. Where as his single A numbers are blown up.

I deal:

Francisco, Alonso, Frazier, and Maloney or
Alonso, Mesoraco, Wood, and Frazier

Might seem like selling the farm, but this organization can net 2 first rounders and have cash to spend when tickets are hard to come by.

lollipopcurve
07-08-2010, 08:44 AM
Might seem like selling the farm, but this organization can net 2 first rounders and have cash to spend when tickets are hard to come by.

If Lee signs with the Yanks, and the Yanks also sign other type As (Carl Crawford, for example), it's possible Lee will not net a single first rounder, only a supplemental and a 2nd rounder.

RedLegSuperStar
07-08-2010, 08:45 AM
Would a Lee deal mean the Reds could have 5 players on the All Star team?

kbrake
07-08-2010, 08:46 AM
I think Jocketty would unload the entire system before he would let the Cards get Lee. Not that I would agree with it but I don't think there is any way Jocketty let's that happen.

I think the time is now. If the Reds have a shot at Lee you have to take it. I don't understand holding prospects for the future when the future is likely to be much tougher. The Dodgers will not be strangled by a divorce forever. The Phillies will be back. Rolen probably doesn't have another year like this left. Rhodes ditto. The division is down, the league is down. Add Lee and this team has a legit shot at going to the World Series.

lollipopcurve
07-08-2010, 08:49 AM
I think the time is now. If the Reds have a shot at Lee you have to take it. I don't understand holding prospects for the future when the future is likely to be much tougher. The Dodgers will not be strangled by a divorce forever. The Phillies will be back. Rolen probably doesn't have another year like this left. Rhodes ditto. The division is down, the league is down. Add Lee and this team has a legit shot at going to the World Series.

So, you take one shot and let the team sink back into irrelevance starting in 2011? Bad approach.

Any team that makes the playoffs has a shot. Better to go to the postseason 3 times in 10 years and be competitive 6 out of 10, than to go once with a stacked team and be competitive once (just to fashion a comparison).

Falls City Beer
07-08-2010, 08:51 AM
This team is not going to sink back into irrelevance in 2011 if they lose Alonso and Mesorasco. They may sink back into irrelevance for other reasons, but not that reason.

kbrake
07-08-2010, 09:03 AM
Yeah I don't think its a situation where you have only 2 options of 1. Make a loaded run this year and sink back into nothing or 2. Hope for the best this year and remain a contender.

As long as we're not dealing a Bruce Votto Cueto Leake or someone along those lines this team will still be good in the future. If you can deal Alonso, Mes, Francisco, and a lower level guy I think its foolish to not do it. We have some depth I think its a good idea to use it.

blumj
07-08-2010, 09:04 AM
If Lee signs with the Yanks, and the Yanks also sign other type As (Carl Crawford, for example), it's possible Lee will not net a single first rounder, only a supplemental and a 2nd rounder.
I don't believe you'd have to worry about anyone on the free agent market this year ranking higher than Lee. Probably thanks to the Twins for getting Mauer locked up. But I think it's almost a sure thing that whoever gets Lee winds up with the Yankees first, and the Rays wind up with sloppy 2nds.

lollipopcurve
07-08-2010, 09:08 AM
This team is not going to sink back into irrelevance in 2011 if they lose Alonso and Mesorasco. They may sink back into irrelevance for other reasons, but not that reason.

I was responding to kbrake's scenario where Rolen and Rhodes lose it and the rest of the league gets stronger.

Bottom line for me is that I don't think the Reds have to pony up the kind of offers some are making. The team can make a great offer AND still protect their depth -- meaning you don't deal Mesoraco and you don't deal both Alonso and Francisco. That's too much offense, and you can't sacrifice a catching prospect like Mes (unless and until Grandal establishes himself as a legit prospect too). The only caveat, I suppose, being that the organization could feel Todd Frazier will rebound -- and I have no idea about that. You need depth behind Rolen and in LF, and Heisey remains somewhat mysterious as a possible regular.

lollipopcurve
07-08-2010, 09:09 AM
I don't believe you'd have to worry about anyone on the free agent market this year ranking higher than Lee. Probably thanks to the Twins for getting Mauer locked up. But I think it's almost a sure thing that whoever gets Lee winds up with the Yankees first, and the Rays wind up with sloppy 2nds.

I don't know enough about the rankings to have that confidence, but if the Reds get Lee, I hope you're right.

_Sir_Charles_
07-08-2010, 09:15 AM
The time is now. I would do backflips to barbados if Mesaraco and Alonso are the primary players involved.

I could certainly live with parting with Yonder. I never saw him playing with the big club anyway since the start of signing him. Mesoraco though...I'd prefer we use some of our OTHER trading chips. Catching, Shortstops & left handed starters are the chips you hold onto.

I understand many people's frustration here with the losing seasons. But going "all in" and saying we'll worry about the future later is the WRONG way to do business. This team is set up for a long sustained run of success. Don't sacrifice it for a one year run that STILL may or may not happen.

lollipopcurve
07-08-2010, 09:20 AM
If you can deal Alonso, Mes, Francisco, and a lower level guy I think its foolish to not do it. We have some depth I think its a good idea to use it.

What you're not seeing is that you're stripping the catching depth and the 1B/3B/LF depth if you do that. I feel confident the team can offer Alonso or Francisco, plus some combination of Frazier or Heisey and pitching not named Wood or Chapman. Maybe they want Janish or Cozart? I'd be willing to give up one or the other in the package. Possibly even a high ceiling, low-level guy like Arias or Hamilton.

The Reds are in a position to have a good major league team for a few years now. But they are going to have to get something out of *some* players who are relatively close to the majors as we look beyond 2010. You can't empty that resource for a rental, I don't care who it is.

medford
07-08-2010, 09:23 AM
Doesn't Votto have a minimum of 3 more seasons here, unless the Reds trade or release him? Are you going to leave Alonso down in AAA for a couple more seasons? Due to his contract, how many option years does he have left? 2 I think? Alonso isn't going to play LF in the majors, at least not based upon the reports I've read. I think that he's played more 1b in AAA than LF shows that the Reds don't really buy him as a LF either, unless forced to. Votto is having an MVP caliber season and has played a very solid 1b. You don't move a guy like that. The only value alonso has to the Reds over the next 3 seasons is if they decide to trade either Votto or Alonso. I'm guessing Walt has as good idea as anyone if they can sign Votto to an extension beyond his arbitration seasons. It may be a matter of how much it will cost, but it has to be priority #1. Yonder has no position on the Reds in 2011, so moving him won't be a reason for falling back to irrelevancy.

Lee won't go to the Cards, not if the Reds want him bad enough or if the Mariners decide to trade him to the Cards just for the sake of trading him to the Cards. The Cards minor league system is pretty baren right now, and their top prospect is a pitcher in A ball still, who IIRC hasn't put up stellar numbers to date. The Reds can outbid them pretty easy, as can the Twins, Rays, Texas, etc...

You worried about getting only a supplemental and a 2nd round pick? Hello Travis Wood and Joey Votto. Wasn't Votto picked in the supplemental round and Travis in round 2? Good players can still be had then. If they Yankees signed him, is their 28th overall pick or whereever it ends up at plus the supplemental all that much different than the supplemental and the 2nd round pick? Besides, when the Reds are picking 30th next season, they'll need the draft buget relief w/ the lower pick :)

kbrake
07-08-2010, 09:25 AM
Lollipopcurve I see your point and I think we are fairly close on this issue.

Hoosier Red
07-08-2010, 09:26 AM
So, you take one shot and let the team sink back into irrelevance starting in 2011? Bad approach.

Any team that makes the playoffs has a shot. Better to go to the postseason 3 times in 10 years and be competitive 6 out of 10, than to go once with a stacked team and be competitive once (just to fashion a comparison).

How is a team that has Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Scott Rolen, Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, and Chris Heisey/insert LF sinking back to irrelevance? Oh and a pitching staff consisting of Edison Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Aroldis Chapman, Mike Leake and Homer Bailey/Matt Maloney/whomever you want as a 5th starter irrelevant?

Worst case scenario for the Reds if they sign Cliff Lee is the Brewers from two years ago. Ride the arm to the playoffs. Flame out in first round. What that did though was buy the Brewers credibility with their fan base. Right now, the Brewers average about 12,000 more fans/game than the Reds. Do you think an additional $10 million in revenue might help a team like the Reds next year and the year after and the year after?

medford
07-08-2010, 09:26 AM
I'm not too worried about losing LF depth. How much is Gomes costing this team? left fielders are a dime a dozen, if picking up Lee is only costing you 1b depth (where you've got a guy locked in for a long while hopefully) and LF depth in the minors, I'm not going to sweat it one bit.

_Sir_Charles_
07-08-2010, 09:27 AM
Mesoraco is struggling at the AA level.. Where as his single A numbers are blown up.

I deal:

Francisco, Alonso, Frazier, and Maloney or
Alonso, Mesoraco, Wood, and Frazier

Might seem like selling the farm, but this organization can net 2 first rounders and have cash to spend when tickets are hard to come by.

Wow...just wow. It shouldn't take anywhere CLOSE to that to acquire Lee. Good grief. Maybe if he had 2 years left on his contract...but mercy, that's top flight talent there...an abundance of it. Like buying a pack of baseball cards and paying with a 100 dollar bill and saying keep the change. Walt's got more sense than this I hope. Wow.

Mario-Rijo
07-08-2010, 09:44 AM
I would love to have Lee and would be willing to part with Alonso and another decent prospect or even 2. For example Alonso plus Wood (with nothing more than filler to boot unless Seattle throws more in) or Alonso plus Francisco/Valaika/Maloney plus a guy like Sean Watson/Valiquette or the like. Additionally I would not offer more than that and I would not offer any better prospects than that unless it's Mes or Frazier/Hamilton/Yorman/Cozart instead of Alonso. Chapman being the only one completely off the table.

My position is we don't need Cliff Lee to make the playoffs, though we do need him to make a serious run once we get there. Additionally Lee doesn't gaurantee us going any further than we would already (the offense will need a boost bye then as well IMO). I say offer a solid package as good as anyone else's and not get caught in a bidding war.

Alonso IMO is > Ramos or Shelby Miller (right now) and is what the M's are looking for, which means if Wood is as good as any secondary player say then we easily have the best package right there. Only the Rangers could put together as good or similiar package (Smoak+) and they don't seem as inclined to do so. Heck even if Minny throws out an arm from their rotation it still doesn't get the M's a bat with big potential.

At most if I were Walt I'd go (if pressed by the M's to sweeten the pot) this:
Alonso, Wood and Francisco (and a BP arm like Watson or Valiquette). That's a healthy package and the most they could squeeze me for. Hey maybe St. Louis could end up with him, empty their system and still not beat us out of 1st, we've handled Lee alright at GABP. Then Lee goes on his merry way allowing for us to gain a further edge down the road on St. Louis.

jojo
07-08-2010, 10:11 AM
This team is not going to sink back into irrelevance in 2011 if they lose Alonso and Mesorasco. They may sink back into irrelevance for other reasons, but not that reason.

I agree with this. Their system as it stands today really doesn't look to be exceptionally well positioned to solve major problems on the 25 man roster over the next several years. If one agrees with that premise, it's hard to see where trading from it would handicap the Reds...

Az Red
07-08-2010, 10:11 AM
It's a good season, Reds Fans, when the team is in the hunt for the premier pitcher on the trading block. I look forward with great anticipation to see how this (or other rumored trades) fall out.


A good season, indead!

(.... and its been a while.)

Hoosier Red
07-08-2010, 10:16 AM
What you're not seeing is that you're stripping the catching depth and the 1B/3B/LF depth if you do that. I feel confident the team can offer Alonso or Francisco, plus some combination of Frazier or Heisey and pitching not named Wood or Chapman. Maybe they want Janish or Cozart? I'd be willing to give up one or the other in the package. Possibly even a high ceiling, low-level guy like Arias or Hamilton.

The Reds are in a position to have a good major league team for a few years now. But they are going to have to get something out of *some* players who are relatively close to the majors as we look beyond 2010. You can't empty that resource for a rental, I don't care who it is.

I don't think the Reds will need to trade all of those players mentioned. But if you can't replace 2 of (Yonder Alonso, Todd Frazier, Devin Mesoraco, Travis Wood) than you're not doing your job from a draft and development standpoint.

I think sometimes we underrate the kids in the low minors in their ability to progress, and overrate the kids in the high minors(AA and AAA) in their ability to be replaced.

Dan
07-08-2010, 10:20 AM
Francisco, Mesoraco, and Wood

There really isn't anyone in the minors I wouldn't trade at this point to get Lee, except for Chapman, but I'm not even sure he's eligible to be traded since he's in the first year of a major league contract. (someone correct me?)

I think there are two things at play here. First, we as fans have been taught "prospects, prospects, prospects". But that's just what they are: prospects. Just like prospecting for gold...sometimes you hit a big strike, sometimes a small strike, but most of the time nothing much.

If given the opportunity to exchange a few prospects for a sure thing, then I go for it.

Second, we are going on the assumption that the Reds scouting department won't be able to find more prospects of the same caliber that we have now. Most of us really like the way the minors have improved from the time Five-Tool-Jimbo departed. What's to say that can't continue?

So make the trade, get Lee, ride his arm to the playoffs and see what happens.

cincrazy
07-08-2010, 10:31 AM
I tell the Mariners to pick two out of Mez, Wood, and Alonso, then throw in a few B prospects, and that's that. I don't give up all three of those players, and I don't give up Heisey, but other than that, Walt needs to go for the throat. I trust him here. We NEED Cliff Lee. This is shaping up as our year. I don't care about the next few years. If we keep all of these prospects, there's no guarantee we ever see ourselves in this position again.

Mario-Rijo
07-08-2010, 10:34 AM
Francisco, Mesoraco, and Wood

There really isn't anyone in the minors I wouldn't trade at this point to get Lee, except for Chapman, but I'm not even sure he's eligible to be traded since he's in the first year of a major league contract. (someone correct me?)

I think there are two things at play here. First, we as fans have been taught "prospects, prospects, prospects". But that's just what they are: prospects. Just like prospecting for gold...sometimes you hit a big strike, sometimes a small strike, but most of the time nothing much.

If given the opportunity to exchange a few prospects for a sure thing, then I go for it.

Second, we are going on the assumption that the Reds scouting department won't be able to find more prospects of the same caliber that we have now. Most of us really like the way the minors have improved from the time Five-Tool-Jimbo departed. What's to say that can't continue?

So make the trade, get Lee, ride his arm to the playoffs and see what happens.

Well the Reds have signed a few really special types but their drafting under Reynolds hasn't been Dan O'Brien-esque at least in terms of high ceiling talent.

That said I don't necessarily disagree with ya about parting with prospects, I'm game. But I am all for not overpaying (a smidge maybe but not by much) but Walt doesn't seem to mind as much. Now if Walt has it in his mind to sign Lee long term perhaps a little more of an overpayment I can accept from him. But the M's shouldn't get more than 1 potential legit building block from us or anyone else for that matter.

membengal
07-08-2010, 10:39 AM
Re: the notion that Mesaraco is "struggling" at AA since his move there a month ago.

7 homers and 5 doubles with an .837 OPS in his first 94 at-bats at AA.

No, he is not "struggling". Far from it.

If one wants to advocate letting him loose for a Lee rental, fine. I don't agree, but it is what it is. But let's not mischarcterize the legit breakthrough we are seeing from a still just 22-year-old catcher in this organization.

oneupper
07-08-2010, 10:40 AM
Mesoraco is struggling at the AA level.. Where as his single A numbers are blown up.

I deal:

Francisco, Alonso, Frazier, and Maloney or
Alonso, Mesoraco, Wood, and Frazier

Might seem like selling the farm, but this organization can net 2 first rounders and have cash to spend when tickets are hard to come by.

Mesoraco is at .837 OPS at Carolina. I'd hardly call that struggle.

I'd give the Ms one from column A and and one from column B, where
column A is a top-ish prospect or MLB-ready guy. Column B is MLB maybe's (Jeff Stevens kind of guys).

But no Mesoraco.

Mario-Rijo
07-08-2010, 10:41 AM
I tell the Mariners to pick two out of Mez, Wood, and Alonso, then throw in a few B prospects, and that's that. I don't give up all three of those players, and I don't give up Heisey, but other than that, Walt needs to go for the throat. I trust him here. We NEED Cliff Lee. This is shaping up as our year. I don't care about the next few years. If we keep all of these prospects, there's no guarantee we ever see ourselves in this position again.

There's no gaurantee Lee gets us where we wanna go either. I can easily see a scenario where we get Lee and still don't make the playoffs. WIll it have been worth it then? I don't know considering we are already drawing far better as of late. At least it seems like the past 3-4 weeks we have drawn better attendance so what is the downside to not getting Lee? I think we have every right to think Lee is a luxury and barter with that leverage in mind.

Again you gotta look at the realistic suitors (not the ones who are just likely trying to drive up the price) and their ammunition and make your offer as firm as they can and IMO that doesn't include any 2 of those 3 but if one of the 2 is Wood I wouldn't have a problem with it.

Just don't overbid Walt and we likely still come out with Lee.

Ghosts of 1990
07-08-2010, 10:42 AM
I am willing to trade any 3 prospects in the system not on this list for Cliff Lee:
Travis Wood
Devin Mesoraco
Aroldis Chapman
Yorman Rodriguez
Billy Hamilton

If that can't get it done, then its not worth the price we will pay.

I was looking for a post like this from you.

Tell me this, why is the premium on Wood so high? Who does he project to in the Major Leagues over a career? Poor man's Tomy Glavine? Steve Avery-type? John Lester in a few years? So many are high on him and I am just trying to figure out why, as I've only seen him pitch now twice. Many want him to be an untouchable.

I take it you think Alonso is only going to be average?

Also, w/ Mesoraco I agree with you. Even with Grandal being drafted I think Mesoraco is a special bat from the catcher position and I hope he is spared.

Johnny Footstool
07-08-2010, 10:44 AM
Heisey and Wood.

lollipopcurve
07-08-2010, 10:45 AM
I'd give the Ms one from column A and and one from column B, where
column A is a top-ish prospect or MLB-ready guy. Column B is MLB maybe's (Jeff Stevens kind of guys).

But no Mesoraco.

Agreed. Further, Alonso OR Francisco, and no Wood, Chapman or Yorman.
__________________

TRF
07-08-2010, 10:47 AM
My list of unavailable players in the minors would be Chapman and Yorman. If they asked for Mes, I'd say yes, but they get fodder to go with him, almost a 1 for 1 trade. Lee is worth it, but so is Mes.

But I'd do Wood and Alonso. That'd be tough to swallow, but both would be on their 25 man roster next year, and I'm thinking the M's want a return like that.

I'd offer Maloney before Wood though. He may not have the same perceived value, but he pitched ok in his MLB season debut in Citi Field. I think he'd fit in well in SafeCo.

My initial off would be Alonso, Maloney, Sappelt. If they asked for Wood instead of Maloney, I'd do it, but they'd lose a player from the deal, probably Sappelt.

membengal
07-08-2010, 10:47 AM
Heisey and Wood.

Yeah, a firm NO to dealing Wood from me.

Alonso, Francisco, Klinker, and one other from the stable at low A would be my best offer.

Mario-Rijo
07-08-2010, 10:49 AM
I was looking for a post like this from you.

Tell me this, why is the premium on Wood so high? Who does he project to in the Major Leagues over a career? Poor man's Tomy Glavine? Steve Avery-type? John Lester in a few years? So many are high on him and I am just trying to figure out why, as I've only seen him pitch now twice. Many want him to be an untouchable.

I take it you think Alonso is only going to be average?

Also, w/ Mesoraco I agree with you. Even with Grandal being drafted I think Mesoraco is a special bat from the catcher position and I hope he is spared.

Not to answer for Doug but my take on that would be Doug knows the value of a cheap BOR starter who could be as good as a #3 perhaps (likely a #4 starting as a #5). That kind of value you don't throw away especially when it lands on the side of pitching. I also doubt Doug has changed his stance on Yonder (I haven't) but he understands you gotta give something to get something and Alonso is someone who is currently blocked and most likely will always be.

Switch Wood to Cozart and you'd have my list (though I too would try to keep Wood if I could).

Hoosier Red
07-08-2010, 10:50 AM
Second, we are going on the assumption that the Reds scouting department won't be able to find more prospects of the same caliber that we have now. Most of us really like the way the minors have improved from the time Five-Tool-Jimbo departed. What's to say that can't continue?

I agree with this.

The Reds draft picks from 2007-2009.

2009: (1) Mike Leake (CA) Brad Boxberger* (2) Billy Hamilton (3) Donnie Joseph

2008: (1) Yonder Alonso (3) Zach Stewart

2007: (1) Devin Mesoraco (CA) Todd Frazier (CA) Kyle Lotzkar (2) Zach Cozart


I realize there are different GM's and slightly different philosophy's but in the three past 3 drafts leading into this year, the Reds have produced
1 Major League above average starter
2 guys who torched lower levels as relievers and could be major league relievers as early as next year(Joseph and Stewart)
1 HS catcher who is playing quite well at AA.
Two college SS who have proven themselves capable at AAA of at least filling in as utility level bats in the majors(Frazier and Cozart) and
2 projects who still look promising(Hamilton and Lotzkar).

That says nothing of the signings from Latin America, or the development of lower round players which has led to the Reds having as deep of a system as I've seen in my time following the team. If they trade Alonso/Wood/Mesaraco etc.. there is depth to replace them.

lollipopcurve
07-08-2010, 10:53 AM
Their system as it stands today really doesn't look to be exceptionally well positioned to solve major problems on the 25 man roster over the next several years. If one agrees with that premise, it's hard to see where trading from it would handicap the Reds...

Disagree with the premise.

Possible major problem: Catching, where injuries are common
Possible solution from within: Mesoraco

Possible major problem: Lack of offense (loss of Rolen, Votto or Bruce makes the offense somewhat shaky)
Possible solution from within: Alonso, Francisco plus Frazier (needing also Heisey in the case of losing Bruce in RF); Mesoraco as hard-hitting catcher

Possible major problem: starting pitching depth (almost always a problem for most teams)
Possible solution from within: Wood

bucksfan2
07-08-2010, 11:09 AM
I am willing to trade any 3 prospects in the system not on this list for Cliff Lee:
Travis Wood
Devin Mesoraco
Aroldis Chapman
Yorman Rodriguez
Billy Hamilton

If that can't get it done, then its not worth the price we will pay.

If you hold all of those players off the list I would imagine the deal doesn't get done. I would like to keep Wood but if he is the key to getting this deal done then I would roll the dice. Mesoraco finally has shown some promise but then again if he is the key cog then I would go for it.

What you have to evaluate is whether or not the Reds are able to replace the traded away players with more than likely 3 first round picks in next years draft. It appears as if the Reds could have a system replacement for Mesoraco in Grandal (if/when he signs). You lose Alonso in a trade then you would need to find a bat, preferable not at 1b, to replace him. Its all about keeping your system stocked, and 3 1st round picks should enable that to happen. And if the Reds are able to sign Lee in the off season then even better.

One caveat is I wouldn't trade anybody who has a very promising upside but is too raw to judge right now. That would include guys like Hamilton, Rodriguez, and Duran.

TheNext44
07-08-2010, 11:10 AM
I agree with this. Their system as it stands today really doesn't look to be exceptionally well positioned to solve major problems on the 25 man roster over the next several years. If one agrees with that premise, it's hard to see where trading from it would handicap the Reds...

I disagree with this premise, but agree with the overall point.

Chapman and/or Wood likely solves rotations spots probably next year, and definitely in several years.
Cozart likely solves SS next year or 2012.
Meseraco solves catching sometime in the next several years.
Frazier/Valaika/Francisco solve 3B and/or 2B in the several years.
Alonso solves 1B if that becomes an issues in th next several years
And all sorts of young arms solve any holes in the Pen, including closer in the next several years.

None of that is certain, but I would say that those players make the Reds well positioned to solve problems on the 25 man roster over the next several years, at least as much as any group of prospects can.

But the Reds can afford to trade one of these guys, and maybe two,depending on the two, for Lee and still be very competitive in 2011. That doesn't mean they should trade any of them, I am sure everyone agrees Lee is not worth Chapman, but even if they did, it wouldn't mean that they are done for the next several years.

Sea Ray
07-08-2010, 11:14 AM
Heisey and Wood.

Why do you want to take two contributing players from the 25 man roster? These guys are part of the reason we're in 1st place. It makes no sense to weaken your current team in an attempt to add to it. Any trade should not include current major league players

TheNext44
07-08-2010, 11:24 AM
If you hold all of those players off the list I would imagine the deal doesn't get done. I would like to keep Wood but if he is the key to getting this deal done then I would roll the dice. Mesoraco finally has shown some promise but then again if he is the key cog then I would go for it.

What you have to evaluate is whether or not the Reds are able to replace the traded away players with more than likely 3 first round picks in next years draft. It appears as if the Reds could have a system replacement for Mesoraco in Grandal (if/when he signs). You lose Alonso in a trade then you would need to find a bat, preferable not at 1b, to replace him. Its all about keeping your system stocked, and 3 1st round picks should enable that to happen. And if the Reds are able to sign Lee in the off season then even better.

One caveat is I wouldn't trade anybody who has a very promising upside but is too raw to judge right now. That would include guys like Hamilton, Rodriguez, and Duran.

Two month rentals don't usually cost one blue chip prospect, let alone two. CC to the Brewers was the biggest package I'd ever seen go for a rental and Yonder/ Francisco plus anyone off of Doug's list would be bigger than that one.

If it costs that much, Lee is not worth it. It's not like the Reds have no shot at the Playoffs without him. The main reason to get him is to go deep into the playoffs. And it's not like he's the only pitcher available who can help the Reds this year, just the best. No need to go all in, IMO.

IslandRed
07-08-2010, 11:25 AM
Why do you want to take two contributing players from the 25 man roster? These guys are part of the reason we're in 1st place. It makes no sense to weaken your current team in an attempt to add to it. Any trade should not include current major league players

True enough, but Wood likely isn't in a rotation that has Lee added to it, and that goes double if Volquez returns also. That's more of a future loss to me than a present loss. Heisey would be a present loss, and a significant one.

gonelong
07-08-2010, 11:29 AM
If the Reds land Lee, I think it will be with the agreement that a long-term deal will come with it. It seems to be our GM's MO.

GL

Hoosier Red
07-08-2010, 11:30 AM
Could be GL, but Lee has been fairly definite in stating that he's testing the FA market.

Mario-Rijo
07-08-2010, 11:33 AM
Could be GL, but Lee has been fairly definite in stating that he's testing the FA market.

Isn't he a Boras client? I'd say odds are he is gonna see FA.

CarolinaRedleg
07-08-2010, 11:34 AM
Fay with an update of sorts....

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/07/08/price-of-lee-a-ton/

OnBaseMachine
07-08-2010, 11:36 AM
From John Fay:


I do not get the sense that anything is in immediate offing. But Walt Jocketty and two of his top people, Bob Miller and Cam Bonifay, are on the trip. That is unusual.

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/07/08/price-of-lee-a-ton/

jojo
07-08-2010, 11:43 AM
Here's the thing about Votto-he has 3 years service time left after this season before free agency assuming the Reds don't do the obvious thing and extend him.

What does Alonso do in the meantime?

lollipopcurve
07-08-2010, 11:44 AM
What does Alonso do in the meantime?

gets traded or plays LF for the Reds

_Sir_Charles_
07-08-2010, 12:16 PM
True enough, but Wood likely isn't in a rotation that has Lee added to it, and that goes double if Volquez returns also. That's more of a future loss to me than a present loss. Heisey would be a present loss, and a significant one.

And for me, that "future loss" is a rather important one.

I understand that people want this deal to get done, but people are also drastically overestimating what it will take to get him. 3 of our top 10 prospects? WAAAAAY overboard. 1 of them plus some low level chafe is more like it. This isn't us trading for Cliff Lee. This is us trading for a rental player. HUGE difference.

NJReds
07-08-2010, 12:20 PM
And for me, that "future loss" is a rather important one.

I understand that people want this deal to get done, but people are also drastically overestimating what it will take to get him. 3 of our top 10 prospects? WAAAAAY overboard. 1 of them plus some low level chafe is more like it. This isn't us trading for Cliff Lee. This is us trading for a rental player. HUGE difference.

And because he's a rental, his price drops every start that he makes with the Mariners.

dougdirt
07-08-2010, 12:36 PM
I got to say that I'm a little surprised that you don't have Zach Cozart on that list. He would not be a player I would move. He is showing consistent power, his BB rate is down from last year but it is still workable and he can handle ss defensively at a low cost. After considering the fact that he is close to ML ready and the reds don't have any other viable alternatives at ss for the near future outside of free agency, he would be on my untouchable list.
I would like to hold Cozart, but at the same time, a push to the playoffs gives the Reds enough money to grab a shortstop FA off the market next year as well. One who will likely get 2 years, giving us time to figure out the 'next' shortstop from within or acquire one via trade/draft.


I was looking for a post like this from you.

Tell me this, why is the premium on Wood so high? Who does he project to in the Major Leagues over a career? Poor man's Tomy Glavine? Steve Avery-type? John Lester in a few years? So many are high on him and I am just trying to figure out why, as I've only seen him pitch now twice. Many want him to be an untouchable.

I take it you think Alonso is only going to be average?

Also, w/ Mesoraco I agree with you. Even with Grandal being drafted I think Mesoraco is a special bat from the catcher position and I hope he is spared.
The premium on Wood is that he is a lefty with 2 above average pitches (FB/CH) who also throws 3 other pitches (cutter, slider, curve), who throws plenty of strikes and you have him under control for the next 6 seasons. As for what he projects as.... probably a guy who throws you 180 innings of 4.00-4.50 ERA baseball. Thats incredibly valuable, especially on the next three seasons when he makes a combined $1.5-$2M.

As for Alonso, I think he is going to be fine, but he is in a position where he is blocked at first base by Votto and in left field it isn't like we don't have plenty of other options for the position moving forward.

GoReds
07-08-2010, 12:37 PM
I don't see the price dropping for Lee. If anything it will go up based on the number of clubs that get more desperate as the trade deadline approaches.

jojo
07-08-2010, 12:42 PM
The premium on Wood is that he is a lefty with 2 above average pitches (FB/CH) who also throws 3 other pitches (cutter, slider, curve), who throws plenty of strikes and you have him under control for the next 6 seasons. As for what he projects as.... probably a guy who throws you 180 innings of 4.00-4.50 ERA baseball. Thats incredibly valuable, especially on the next three seasons when he makes a combined $1.5-$2M.

What explains the gap between your assessment and that of a guy like John Sickels?

HokieRed
07-08-2010, 12:42 PM
gets traded or plays LF for the Reds

I'd say that what Alonso does depends on how good he is. In any good organization of any kind, wouldn't that be the answer? I suspect there are two variables primarily in play between those who want to trade him and those who don't: 1. A judgment about Alonso's potential; and 2. One about the likelihood of signing Votto longer term.

Sea Ray
07-08-2010, 12:42 PM
I'd trade Alonzo and Dorn for Lee. I agree with the one who said he's worth a type A prospect and a lower one. I wouldn't go crazy for him as some around here are

REDREAD
07-08-2010, 12:43 PM
And because he's a rental, his price drops every start that he makes with the Mariners.

I'm not so sure about that.

His price is a function of supply and demand. I don't expect the demand to drop off much between now and the trading deadline. With so many teams interested, it's hard to say whether the Mariners will lower their asking price or the buyers will up their price.. The Mariners are in a great position. Lee being a rental actually makes him more appealing, as their is little financial risk in picking him up.. If Lee was extended at free agent prices, the Twins, Reds, etc would probably not be enquiring.

Puffy
07-08-2010, 12:51 PM
I think people are underestimating the Walt Jocketty M.O. - he acquires these types of players and always re-signs them so its not a guaranteed 'two-month rental.'

McGwire, Larry Walker, Edmonds, Rolen twice. If he gets Lee and the Reds not only win but attendance spikes then I have no doubt Jocketty can resign him for less than market value (even with Boras as adviser). Don't forget Lee wanted to stay in Philly and would have stayed there if the Phils didn't acquire Halladay.

Its no guarantee but I like the odds if Jocketty gets Lee. And I'd try the Alonso, Francisco and Maloney route cause I like Wood alot but for Lee I'd include Wood if I had to. And Mes, well, if Mariners want him I would include him as well. 1 good half year does not guarantee future MLB success. So Alonso, Mes and Maloney would also work for me.

dougdirt
07-08-2010, 12:53 PM
What explains the gap between your assessment and that of a guy like John Sickels?

On which guy? And what in particular is the gap, as I don't always know exactly what Sickels said.

fearofpopvol1
07-08-2010, 12:53 PM
On which guy? And what in particular is the gap, as I don't always know exactly what Sickels said.

Pretty sure he was referring to Wood.

westofyou
07-08-2010, 12:58 PM
15 years since a playoff, 20 years since a World Series, before that 11 years.

Why any young Reds fan would want to hold onto ML players as opposed to ending this nightmare is beyond me, sometimes the time chooses you, everyone should be aware that not very often do we get to choose the time.

jojo
07-08-2010, 01:01 PM
On which guy? And what in particular is the gap, as I don't always know exactly what Sickels said.

Here's John's comments on Wood from his 2010 Reds top 20:


8) Travis Wood, LHP, Grade C+: Outstanding comeback season last year, but looks more like a four/five starter based on his stuff. Ranks ahead of Maloney since he's younger.

RedLegSuperStar
07-08-2010, 01:02 PM
15 years since a playoff, 20 years since a World Series, before that 11 years.

Why any young Reds fan would want to hold onto ML players as opposed to ending this nightmare is beyond me, sometimes the time chooses you, everyone should be aware that not very often do we get to choose the time.

Amen

HokieRed
07-08-2010, 01:06 PM
15 years since a playoff, 20 years since a World Series, before that 11 years.

Why any young Reds fan would want to hold onto ML players as opposed to ending this nightmare is beyond me, sometimes the time chooses you, everyone should be aware that not very often do we get to choose the time.

Some old Reds fans would assume there isn't the same degree of certainty about the outcome as your post implies--i.e. get Cliff Lee, nightmare ends. I agree that the time chooses one; the question is about whether this is the time and for what. I happen to think the time for this team is over the next several years because, either by plan or by accident, the last three FO's have actually been very good about acquiring what allows a team to be very competitive every season--good and deep starting pitching. I don't care about winning this year if we have to do it with a rental; I want us to dominate at least the division for the next five.

Raisor
07-08-2010, 01:06 PM
15 years since a playoff, 20 years since a World Series, before that 11 years.

Why any young Reds fan would want to hold onto ML players as opposed to ending this nightmare is beyond me, sometimes the time chooses you, everyone should be aware that not very often do we get to choose the time.

bingo.

This is the year. You have to go for it.

lollipopcurve
07-08-2010, 01:12 PM
Some old Reds fans would assume there isn't the same degree of certainty about the outcome as your post implies--i.e. get Cliff Lee, nightmare ends. I agree that the time chooses one; the question is about whether this is the time and for what. I happen to think the time for this team is over the next several years because, either by plan or by accident, the last three FO's have actually been very good about acquiring what allows a team to be very competitive every season--good and deep starting pitching. I don't care about winning this year if we have to do it with a rental; I want us to dominate at least the division for the next five.

Exactly. And Jocketty has been consistent in saying that he wants to build something that lasts -- thus his reference, during the broadcast the other night, to not destroying their depth when making a trade. I'm confident he won't mortgage the future on a rental.

HokieRed
07-08-2010, 01:16 PM
Exactly. And Jocketty has been consistent in saying that he wants to build something that lasts -- thus his reference, during the broadcast the other night, to not destroying their depth when making a trade. I'm confident he won't mortgage the future on a rental.


Agree. My confidence is in Walt here. But when I see arguments for Alonso plus Wood plus maybe even Mesoraco, that means to me 1. A guy I think will be in the middle of the rotation for the next 6 years; 2. A guy who at the very least allows you to trade for a minimum of one of the position players we'll need; and 3. A guy with a very good chance to become the answer at perhaps the most difficult position on the field to fill-C. That's a lot to give up for anybody, much less for the difference over 12-15 starts between Lee and whoever he replaces or keeps out of the rotation--e.g. Volquez.

redsfan30
07-08-2010, 01:16 PM
15 years since a playoff, 20 years since a World Series, before that 11 years.

Why any young Reds fan would want to hold onto ML players as opposed to ending this nightmare is beyond me, sometimes the time chooses you, everyone should be aware that not very often do we get to choose the time.

:clap:

Anybody not named Chapman in the minors is fair game. Take your choice, Seattle.

Get this done. Please.

_Sir_Charles_
07-08-2010, 01:16 PM
15 years since a playoff, 20 years since a World Series, before that 11 years.

Why any young Reds fan would want to hold onto ML players as opposed to ending this nightmare is beyond me, sometimes the time chooses you, everyone should be aware that not very often do we get to choose the time.

I don't think anybody here is against going out and getting Cliff Lee. But there also haven't been many similarities between this club this year and those previous clubs. We're considerably deeper in most all positions and more talented at most all positions and we're playing with enthusiasm and emotion. I'd say we've got a VERY good shot at reaching the playoffs even without Lee. And to do so for a decently long stretch of time too. So go get him...just don't be an idiot and overpay for him and give into ALL of the M's demands. We don't NEED Lee....but he sure would be nice to have.

Dan
07-08-2010, 01:18 PM
Hmmmm...I'm going to amend my earlier proposals. Let's make a few lists:

List A: Alonso, Francisco, Wood, Heisey
List B: Mesoraco, Frazier, Cozart, Soto
List C: Valiaka, Villiquette, LeCure, Maloney

The M's can select one from each list.

dougdirt
07-08-2010, 01:18 PM
Here's John's comments on Wood from his 2010 Reds top 20:

Well I guess I would start by asking, is this a #4/5 starter based on stuff or based on results? Also have to ask how a lefty that throws 90-92 and touches 94 with an above average/plus change up even falls into the #4/5 category based on 'stuff'.

The problem with labeling a guy as a #X starter is that for the most part, it doesn't have any true context. There are idea's out there of what a #X guy should be, but about 90% of the time, it isn't reality of what that guy actually is if we go through the league and break down the top 150 starters in baseball and divide them into groups of 30.

Raisor
07-08-2010, 01:19 PM
We don't NEED Lee....but he sure would be nice to have.

See I think they do need him.

There's not one sure thing in the rotation, every one of them is a what if.

redsfan30
07-08-2010, 01:19 PM
I don't think anybody here is against going out and getting Cliff Lee. But there also haven't been many similarities between this club this year and those previous clubs. We're considerably deeper in most all positions and more talented at most all positions and we're playing with enthusiasm and emotion. I'd say we've got a VERY good shot at reaching the playoffs even without Lee. And to do so for a decently long stretch of time too. So go get him...just don't be an idiot and overpay for him and give into any of the M's demands. We don't NEED Lee....but he sure would be nice to have.

We may not need Lee right now, but should this team reach October they will need him then. Lee makes the Reds extremely dangerous in a 7 game series.

Cedric
07-08-2010, 01:19 PM
Exactly. And Jocketty has been consistent in saying that he wants to build something that lasts -- thus his reference, during the broadcast the other night, to not destroying their depth when making a trade. I'm confident he won't mortgage the future on a rental.

I hear this a lot and don't quite get it. The "future" of the Reds is really Wood, Alonzo, and a catcher with major ups and downs? And that's probably around what we would lose in a trade for Lee.

If that's the future I'm even more excited and prepared to go for it this year.

dunner13
07-08-2010, 01:20 PM
From Keith Law in his chat today
Chris (Cincinatti)


I have read that the Mariners are looking for close to major league ready prospects for Lee. Is it possible that the Reds have brought up Travis Wood to showcase him for a possible trade? Is this something that teams have done in the past in order to show that a prospect can play in the majors to make him more attractive in a trade/

Klaw (1:09 PM)


Yes, happens all the time. I was shooting the breeze with Mike Salk the other night, and I thought the Reds could offer Alonso, Mesoraco, and Wood for Lee and at least be in the running.

Hoosier Red
07-08-2010, 01:21 PM
And for me, that "future loss" is a rather important one.

I understand that people want this deal to get done, but people are also drastically overestimating what it will take to get him. 3 of our top 10 prospects? WAAAAAY overboard. 1 of them plus some low level chafe is more like it. This isn't us trading for Cliff Lee. This is us trading for a rental player. HUGE difference.

I think in a lot of cases people are talking past each other. I've argued that 2 of the top 10 would get it done, but there are few sacred cows in those 2.(Probably only Chapman for me.)

I'd hesitate to trade three of (Alonso, Wood, Mesaraco, Frazier) but I'm pretty sure I'd trade any two the Mariners asked for.

As for low level guys, yeah it would stink to trade someone like Billy Hamilton before you get a good feel for him but shouldn't there be a Billy Hamilton like player every year in the draft? What makes someone like him irreplacable?

Nasty_Boy
07-08-2010, 01:22 PM
The addition of Lee would make the Reds World Series contenders instead of just playoff contenders... You get this guys and you are in great position to win most short series!

deltachi8
07-08-2010, 01:24 PM
15 years since a playoff, 20 years since a World Series, before that 11 years.

Why any young Reds fan would want to hold onto ML players as opposed to ending this nightmare is beyond me, sometimes the time chooses you, everyone should be aware that not very often do we get to choose the time.

This reminds me a bit of the Buffalo Sabres of 06-07. They had a good team and were having a terrific season. Things seemed to go right for them even with a couple noticeable flaws. They had great "chemistry" to the point that the team went to the GM at the deadline and asked him not to trade - to leave things as it was.

They got thumped in the playoffs. Their two captains left after the season and the young talent in the pipeline - loads of it it seemed wasn't ready to take over and the window closed. It took 3 years before getting back into the playoffs (in a sport where 16 teams make it).

The year chose them and they didn't do enough to take advantage of it.

I hope the Reds do what is takes to make the most of the opportunity this year is presenting for them. When only 8 teams make the playoffs in your sport and you have not been there in 15 years, who knows when the next chance comes around.


The addition of Lee would make the Reds World Series contenders instead of just playoff contenders... You get this guys and you are in great position to win most short series!

Agreed.

dougdirt
07-08-2010, 01:25 PM
I hear this a lot and don't quite get it. The "future" of the Reds is really Wood, Alonzo, and a catcher with major ups and downs? And that's probably around what we would lose in a trade for Lee.

If that's the future I'm even more excited and prepared to go for it this year.
I would respond with is the 'future' Cliff Lee?

Of course it isn't because he is out of here as soon as he can be because the Reds aren't going to throw $100M at him.

Mesoraco isn't replaceable within the system. He is far and away the best power hitter we have in terms of actual production (though some do have better pure power - Francisco, Duran), is throwing out every other base runner and is doing just about everything you want to see at the plate out of a prospect.

Wood on the flip side is just one of those guys who is polished and ready with a little bit of upside. He isn't going to likely ever be a #1 or #2 guy. But the odds are pretty strong that he is a #4 guy for a while with a chance at being a #3 guy. And all of that comes today. You don't have to wait for it. He is here, right now, ready to be that guy.

Alonso is replacable somewhat. He plays Votto's position and since Votto isn't moving, then we look at him as a left fielder. As a left fielder, he could be ok overall (below average defense, above average bat), but how much of a difference in left would there be between him, Heisey/Frazier? Probably not much.

_Sir_Charles_
07-08-2010, 01:27 PM
See I think they do need him.

There's not one sure thing in the rotation, every one of them is a what if.

And see, I don't think Lee is a SURE THING either. He's a good pitcher. Good pitchers get lit up.


Redsfan30-We may not need Lee right now, but should this team reach October they will need him then. Lee makes the Reds extremely dangerous in a 7 game series.

Sure he would. So would CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, King Felix, and many other pitchers. But it's a matter of HOW MUCH IS TOO MUCH in terms of trading for him. Would you guys be happy if we won the World Series this year by getting Lee but trading away so much young talent that we never sniff the playoffs again for another 10 years? That's MY worry. We're talking about adding a guy who nets us a small handful of victories over our current pitchers. MAYBE. I'm just urging caution on how much we ship to Seattle for a rental. And while I like the odds that Walt brings to the table in signing rentals to extensions...there's virtually zero chance of that happening with Lee. He's been pretty adamant about wanting to test the FA waters.

HokieRed
07-08-2010, 01:27 PM
I would respond with is the 'future' Cliff Lee?

Of course it isn't because he is out of here as soon as he can be because the Reds aren't going to throw $100M at him.

Mesoraco isn't replaceable within the system. He is far and away the best power hitter we have in terms of actual production (though some do have better pure power - Francisco, Duran), is throwing out every other base runner and is doing just about everything you want to see at the plate out of a prospect.

Wood on the flip side is just one of those guys who is polished and ready with a little bit of upside. He isn't going to likely ever be a #1 or #2 guy. But the odds are pretty strong that he is a #4 guy for a while with a chance at being a #3 guy. And all of that comes today. You don't have to wait for it. He is here, right now, ready to be that guy.

Alonso is replacable somewhat. He plays Votto's position and since Votto isn't moving, then we look at him as a left fielder. As a left fielder, he could be ok overall (below average defense, above average bat), but how much of a difference in left would there be between him, Heisey/Frazier? Probably not much.

Agree. In short, just so the price can be seen clearly, a mid-rotation starter, a catcher with power, and a guy who can, at the least, be dealt for a position player we'll need.

CrackerJack
07-08-2010, 01:31 PM
The addition of Lee would make the Reds World Series contenders instead of just playoff contenders... You get this guys and you are in great position to win most short series!

Yeah it took me a while to come around to this, but it's true, the Reds have some nice starting pitching depth, i.e. quality starters, but with the uncertainty of Harang, Volquez and Bailey, Chapman not improving in AAA, and Leake facing a shortened season or limited innings, they almost have to do something, or they may be facing a season-ending collapse and a domino effect of sorts.

Boy it would be nice to keep Wood though, and still add Lee, if they can somehow keep Arroyo next year, they'll be set to have a nice multi-year run.

Screwball
07-08-2010, 01:31 PM
From Keith Law in his chat today
Chris (Cincinatti)


I have read that the Mariners are looking for close to major league ready prospects for Lee. Is it possible that the Reds have brought up Travis Wood to showcase him for a possible trade? Is this something that teams have done in the past in order to show that a prospect can play in the majors to make him more attractive in a trade/

Klaw (1:09 PM)


Yes, happens all the time. I was shooting the breeze with Mike Salk the other night, and I thought the Reds could offer Alonso, Mesoraco, and Wood for Lee and at least be in the running.

Wow, I know I can be guilty of overrating Reds prospects, but I would think we'd be a near lock if we offered Seattle that package. Those are 3 of our top 7 or 8 prospects.

Falls City Beer
07-08-2010, 01:32 PM
Wow, I know I can be guilty of overrating Reds prospects, but I would think we'd be a near lock if we offered Seattle that package. Those are 3 of our top 7 or 8 prospects.

Which is silly; the Reds are not going to offer that much. No team's going to.

remdog
07-08-2010, 01:34 PM
This situation appears to be exactly what Walt seems to look for: a player that can improve your team at the trading deadline without giving up much. From '97-'07 Walt made deadline deals (or waiver/trade deals) seven of those years.

Some notables: (Acquired/For)
'97 Mark McGwire for Eric Ludwick, TJ Mathews, Blake Stein
'00 Will Clark for Jose Leon
'00 Mike Timlin for Chris Richard, Mark Nussbeck
'02 Chuck Finely for Coco Crisp, Luis Garcia
'02 Scott Rolan for Placido Polanco, Mike Timlin, Bud Smith
'04 Larry Walker for Luis Martinez, Chris Narveson, Jason Burch
'06 Jeff Weaver for Terry Evens
'07 Joel Pineiro for Sean Danielson

Some trades were great, some were so-so, some may be too early to tell but Walt's history is that he's willing to pull the trigger and I look for him to make this trade (and/or another one) in order to go for the gold this year. He's not one to let an opportunity pass in order to continually build 'for the future'. Often, 'the future' never gets here.

If you look at the trades above Walt often got the help he needed/wanted for very little in return. Some players stayed, some left but at least Walt did something.

I hope the Reds land Lee (and I don't think it will take as much as some here do).

Hoosier Red
07-08-2010, 01:38 PM
Wow, I know I can be guilty of overrating Reds prospects, but I would think we'd be a near lock if we offered Seattle that package. Those are 3 of our top 7 or 8 prospects.

Yeah I'm in favor of making just about everyone available but if those 3 wouldn't shut the door and finish the deal I can't imagine what Seattle would actually be asking for.
IMO, they'll be lucky to get two players of that caliber.

PuffyPig
07-08-2010, 01:38 PM
Would you guys be happy if we won the World Series this year by getting Lee but trading away so much young talent that we never sniff the playoffs again for another 10 years? That's MY worry.


The prospects we trade for Lee aren't such that our chances in the future to contend will be zero.

In fact, it's likely not to effect our chances in 2011 at all.

Add that we will get two high draft picks anyway, and our net loss in prospects isn't as bad as you imagine.

Look what Lee fetched from the Mariners before the season started.

pedro
07-08-2010, 01:38 PM
This situation appears to be exactly what Walt seems to look for: a player that can improve your team at the trading deadline without giving up much. From '97-'07 Walt made deadline deals (or waiver/trade deals) seven of those years.

Some notables: (Acquired/For)
'97 Mark McGwire for Eric Ludwick, TJ Mathews, Blake Stein
'00 Will Clark for Jose Leon
'00 Mike Timlin for Chris Richard, Mark Nussbeck
'02 Chuck Finely for Coco Crisp, Luis Garcia
'02 Scott Rolan for Placido Polanco, Mike Timlin, Bud Smith
'04 Larry Walker for Luis Martinez, Chris Narveson, Jason Burch
'06 Jeff Weaver for Terry Evens
'07 Joel Pineiro for Sean Danielson

Some trades were great, some were so-so, some may be too early to tell but Walt's history is that he's willing to pull the trigger and I look for him to make this trade (and/or another one) in order to go for the gold this year. He's not one to let an opportunity pass in order to continually build 'for the future'. Often, 'the future' never gets here.

If you look at the trades above Walt often got the help he needed/wanted for very little in return. Some players stayed, some left but at least Walt did something.

I hope the Reds land Lee (and I don't think it will take as much as some here do).

Looks like Walt knows who to trade.

Chip R
07-08-2010, 01:39 PM
I would throw Wood in as a last resort. If you know they are going to walk away from the table and trade him elsewhere, then, and only then, do you throw Wood in. And it's not necessarily that Wood's so great (it's mainly because he's a lefty) but you can't give up 3 top prospects for 2 months of a rental player without a fight. I don't want to see the Reds have to give up top prospects while other teams give up squat.

MikeS21
07-08-2010, 01:40 PM
I'd offer them Alonso and Maloney straight up for Lee. I would only include another prospect if Lee is willing to sign a LTC before the deal is made. This deal would not mortgage the Reds' future.

If Lee is serious about testing FA, the M's would be hard pressed to find a better deal. Anywhere.

I'm like Doug, for some reason, I can't help but feel that if we trade Travis Wood, he will be the one guy this team will kick themselves over for letting go for years to come.

Caveat Emperor
07-08-2010, 01:44 PM
Looks like Walt knows who to trade.

People are getting hung up on Cliff Lee -- even if Walt can't land this fish, I'm confident he'll improve the team before the deadline passes. There will be other big names that move, not just Lee.

Walt knows this game well, and I'm confident that he'll get the job done. Plus, with the way the team has been playing (and with the prospect of competitive baseball being played in Cincinnati well past August), I expect he'll have a blank check from ownership to make any move he deems necessary to put the team over the top.

OnBaseMachine
07-08-2010, 01:44 PM
Normally I am one of those guys who want to horde prospects and build toward the future. As much as I liked Scott Rolen, I was mad last year when the Reds traded away a very good prospect in Zach Stewart for Rolen. It took me a while to get over that just because I follow these prospects so closely and it hurts to see them traded. Just a few weeks ago I was against trading prospects for Cliff Lee but now things have changed.

At 23 years old, I've endured some hard times by the Reds. I haven't had a whole lot to cheer for. But for the first time in 11 years, I think the Reds finally have a team that has a chance to play meaningful baseball in August and September, and even make the playoffs. There's a starting pitcher on the market who has a chance to make the Reds World Series contenders, and the Reds just so happen to have the prospects available to land that pitcher. It's time to go for it, IMO. I'm not saying they should empty the farm out, because they shouldn't. Some players are off limits, with Aroldis Chapman obviously being one of them. But there are a few guys in the system who are blocked by good players at the major league level and are expendable. Yonder Alonso projects to be an All-Star caliber hitter but Joey Votto has first base locked down for hopefully a long time. If the Reds can center a deal around Alonso + a couple other prospects, you absolutely have to do it, IMO.

I can't help but think about what Cliff Lee could do for this team. Remember how C.C. Sabathia dominated in the National League after coming over to the Brewers two years ago? I think Cliff Lee can do the same. Lee could really do some specials things for this team, like take the organization to a place they haven't been in 15 years - the playoffs, or 20 years - the World Series. Fast forward to many years down the road, I would love to look back on 2010 and be able to tell my kids about that magical 2010 season where the Reds shocked the baseball world and came out of nowhere to win the pennant, or even a World Series.

The Reds have the ability to make a deal without jeoparding the future too much. It's time to do it, IMO.

guttle11
07-08-2010, 01:47 PM
I'm like Doug, for some reason, I can't help but feel that if we trade Travis Wood, he will be the one guy this team will kick themselves over for letting go for years to come.

At the same time, we'll be kicking ourselves in three years if Wood is a 4/5 starter and we find out the Reds could have had Lee if they included him in a package. The simple truth is that no one knows, it's a gamble either way, and I'd argue Lee is playing with house money.

We were supposed to be kicking ourselves over the loss of Zach Stewart for years to come as well. We're not, and we never will be.

If it were me making the call, I'd give the Mariners a list of four names:

Alonso
Wood
Mesoraco
Francisco

Pick two along with anyone else in the system not named Boxberger or Rodriquez, and make sure Cliff Lee has a first class ticket into Cincy.

Sea Ray
07-08-2010, 01:48 PM
I would throw Wood in as a last resort. If you know they are going to walk away from the table and trade him elsewhere, then, and only then, do you throw Wood in. And it's not necessarily that Wood's so great (it's mainly because he's a lefty) but you can't give up 3 top prospects for 2 months of a rental player without a fight. I don't want to see the Reds have to give up top prospects while other teams give up squat.

I totally disagree. Maybe we disagree on how good Wood is but I think he's the best LH starter we've produced in a generation (Tom Browning). That kind of player isn't a last minute throw in. I'd be very hestitant to include him at all.

This thread is reminding me more and more of the Eric Bedard one a few years ago. RZers love to do trades...

dougdirt
07-08-2010, 01:49 PM
The prospects we trade for Lee aren't such that our chances in the future to contend will be zero.

In fact, it's likely not to effect our chances in 2011 at all.

Add that we will get two high draft picks anyway, and our net loss in prospects isn't as bad as you imagine.

Look what Lee fetched from the Mariners before the season started.

It could effect our chances in 2011 as Wood could be one of the 5 best starters we have in 2011.

As for the two 'high draft picks', not quite. They are going to be sandwich picks, in the 40-60 range most likely. That is far from where you can get 'sure bets' as far as the MLB draft is concerned.

As for what Lee got before the season.... well we should be paying half of what he fetched since half of his starts are now gone. People are still trying to pay more for Lee than what was paid for him in the offseason.

SirFelixCat
07-08-2010, 01:52 PM
For me, even with Grandal, I'm not really into the idea of trading Mesoraco. Wood is probably out as well, and Chapman. Outside of those 3, I'm down.

I feel exactly this way. Outside of those 3, they can have their pick of 2 others.

Eric_the_Red
07-08-2010, 01:54 PM
This thread is reminding me more and more of the Eric Bedard one a few years ago. RZers love to do trades...

And horde prospects.

PuffyPig
07-08-2010, 01:55 PM
It could effect our chances in 2011 as Wood could be one of the 5 best starters we have in 2011.



Our starters next year are likely:

Volquez
Arroyo
Cueto
Leake
Bailey

with Chapman in the mix as well.

Chip R
07-08-2010, 01:56 PM
I totally disagree. Maybe we disagree on how good Wood is but I think he's the best LH starter we've produced in a generation (Tom Browning). That kind of player isn't a last minute throw in. I'd be very hestitant to include him at all.

That's what I'm saying. I'm very hesitant to throw Wood in. But having Chapman would ease the sting somewhat. I would be ecstatic if Walt could pull this off without including Wood. But I'd include him only if it were a deal breaker.

This isn't Walt's first rodeo. I trust that he knows what he's doing when it comes down to deals like this. However his handicap may be that unlike when he was in StL, he can't afford to keep Lee. He can't tell SEA's GM that he'll give him his top 3 prospects because he knows he can lock up Lee for a few more years.

Cedric
07-08-2010, 01:57 PM
I totally disagree. Maybe we disagree on how good Wood is but I think he's the best LH starter we've produced in a generation (Tom Browning). That kind of player isn't a last minute throw in. I'd be very hestitant to include him at all.

This thread is reminding me more and more of the Eric Bedard one a few years ago. RZers love to do trades...

Actually GM's like to trade around the deadline and fans like to talk about possible trades. Is that really shocking news?

Falls City Beer
07-08-2010, 01:58 PM
I doubt Wood is a part of a deal. Alonso represents "close to the majors" talent.

HokieRed
07-08-2010, 01:58 PM
Our starters next year are likely:

Volquez
Arroyo
Cueto
Leake
Bailey

with Chapman in the mix as well.

I think Wood will easily force his way into this rotation.

_Sir_Charles_
07-08-2010, 02:01 PM
The prospects we trade for Lee aren't such that our chances in the future to contend will be zero.

In fact, it's likely not to effect our chances in 2011 at all.

Add that we will get two high draft picks anyway, and our net loss in prospects isn't as bad as you imagine.

Look what Lee fetched from the Mariners before the season started.

Different situation. Mariners were looking at a full year AT LEAST from Lee.

And as for our future being zero...yes, I overexaggerated, but depending upon WHO we trade it could severely weaken our outlook going forward. But we don't know WHO is on the table. The only thing I'm saying is that we shouldn't be in such a hurry to get a deal done that we cave into the M's demands and end up overpaying...which is what many here seem to be suggesting by tossing the M's 3 of our top 5-10 prospects.

GOYA
07-08-2010, 02:01 PM
If I'm Walt, I don't dealt for Lee unless I'm assured of at least a 2-3 year contract with him. There are too many question marks with the Reds to rent an arm for a WS push this year. Mainly the bullpen.

_Sir_Charles_
07-08-2010, 02:03 PM
I'd offer them Alonso and Maloney straight up for Lee. I would only include another prospect if Lee is willing to sign a LTC before the deal is made. This deal would not mortgage the Reds' future.

If Lee is serious about testing FA, the M's would be hard pressed to find a better deal. Anywhere.

I'm like Doug, for some reason, I can't help but feel that if we trade Travis Wood, he will be the one guy this team will kick themselves over for letting go for years to come.

This seems much more realistic to me. I know Cliff Lee is good, but just how many starts are we talking about from today going forward? How many wins MORE than his replacement would we be getting?

Falls City Beer
07-08-2010, 02:03 PM
If I'm Walt, I don't dealt for Lee unless I'm assured of at least a 2-3 year contract with him. There are too many question marks with the Reds to rent an arm for a WS push this year. Mainly the bullpen.

Lee's not returning to Cincinnati after this season if traded for; that we know. He's definitely a rental.

I'm just not convinced of three blue chip guys going. I'd say the odds of that are very low.

dunner13
07-08-2010, 02:04 PM
I think we have a tendancey to see only the good in our prospects, other teams are going to see alot more of the bad then we are. For instance

Alonso - the guy has never really put up huge numbers you want from a top prospect at first base. There is a very good chance that his ceiling is Lyle Overbay not Albert Pujols. If he heals from his injury and starts showing alot of power then that changes but there is risk with alonso, hes not a sure thing.

Mesorco - Before this year his highest OPS was .710 Sure hes killing the ball now but have we seen enough to know for sure that hes going to be an all star catcher?

Travis Wood - even here at redszone most people think his ceiling is a #3 starter.

My point is that none of these 3 guys are a sure thing. Wood is the closest to a sure thing but he also probably has the lowest ceiling of the 3. If Alonso never has more then 20hr a year power, Mes becomes a league average catcher and wood is a back of the rotation starter then trading them for Lee will be a great deal. Its very doubtful that Alonso ends up hitting .320 with 35 hrs every year, Mes becomes Brian Mccann and Wood develops into a top of the rotation starter. Maybe one of those scenarios happen but its pretty much impossible that all 3 happen.
Cliff Lee is right now one of the top players in baseball. He has world series experience and dominates just about every night he takes the mound. Odds are strongly against any of our prospects becoming that kind of player.

Falls City Beer
07-08-2010, 02:07 PM
I'll go out on a limb and say a deal like this gets it done: Heisey, Alonso, and Lecure.

MikeS21
07-08-2010, 02:07 PM
At the same time, we'll be kicking ourselves in three years if Wood is a 4/5 starter and we find out the Reds could have had Lee if they included him in a package. The simple truth is that no one knows, it's a gamble either way, and I'd argue Lee is playing with house money.

We were supposed to be kicking ourselves over the loss of Zach Stewart for years to come as well. We're not, and we never will be.

If it were me making the call, I'd give the Mariners a list of four names:

Alonso
Wood
Mesoraco
Francisco

Pick two along with anyone else in the system not named Boxberger or Rodriquez, and make sure Cliff Lee has a first class ticket into Cincy.

Thing is, I don't think you need to offer two off that list. Offer them Alonso and Maloney. Period. As I said, if Lee is serious about testing FA, the Mariners aren't going to get a better offer.

If Lee signs a LTC, only THEN would I talk about Fransisco or Bailey or some other youngster.

_Sir_Charles_
07-08-2010, 02:07 PM
It could effect our chances in 2011 as Wood could be one of the 5 best starters we have in 2011.

As for the two 'high draft picks', not quite. They are going to be sandwich picks, in the 40-60 range most likely. That is far from where you can get 'sure bets' as far as the MLB draft is concerned.

As for what Lee got before the season.... well we should be paying half of what he fetched since half of his starts are now gone. People are still trying to pay more for Lee than what was paid for him in the offseason.

this

fearofpopvol1
07-08-2010, 02:08 PM
I'll go out on a limb and say a deal like this gets it done: Heisey, Alonso, and Lecure.

I'd be okay with that. I like Heisey, but could part with him for Lee.

bucksfan2
07-08-2010, 02:09 PM
Normally I am one of those guys who want to horde prospects and build toward the future. As much as I liked Scott Rolen, I was mad last year when the Reds traded away a very good prospect in Zach Stewart for Rolen. It took me a while to get over that just because I follow these prospects so closely and it hurts to see them traded. Just a few weeks ago I was against trading prospects for Cliff Lee but now things have changed.

Too many people and even people in baseball think along the lines of you OBM. They want to hoard prospects, they don't want to trade the next impact super star. They just don't want to miss out on the next big thing.

I think where Walt excels is that he doesn't attach himself to prospects. He views them as chess pieces. He knows which ones to protect and which ones to sacrifice. He has a pretty good history of trading away highly valued chips for current big league players. More often than not Walt has gotten more value out of the trade.

The Scott Rolen trade really turned around my thinking. For the most part I was for the trade. I liked getting rid of Edwin and really liked the idea of what Rolen brought to the table. I also thought it was fun for lack of a better word to go back and read all the debate over Stewart. Stewart may turn out to be a very good pitcher, but without Rolen this team isn't where they are. I am having a heck of a time following the Reds this season. Its fun to see them playing very good baseball and playing baseball "the right way". Its fun to see them do things that for years I saw good teams do.

Now to the Lee situation. With or without Lee I like the Reds chances of playing meaningful baseball late into the season. I like the idea of having a hammer in the rotation pitching every 5th day. I like the idea of heading out west with Lee starting twice. I like the idea of being able to match up aces with teams like the Rockies or even Cards for that matter. It will cost prospects, when used correctly, are used as trading chips as well.

I look at the Red Sox and Marlins deal from a few seasons ago. I bet both the Red Sox and Marlins are happy with the current players as well as results. The Marlins have an exciting young SS that any team in the league would love to have but the Sox have an ace who was instrumental in bring the Red Sox a WS title.

Caveat Emperor
07-08-2010, 02:13 PM
I'll go out on a limb and say a deal like this gets it done: Heisey, Alonso, and Lecure.

I doubt Walt is going to trade pieces of the ML team -- just my hunch, but I imagine he'd be more willing to throw 2 Juan Franciscos into a deal than he would 1 Chris Heisey or 1 Travis Wood.

HokieRed
07-08-2010, 02:16 PM
I'll go out on a limb and say a deal like this gets it done: Heisey, Alonso, and Lecure.


Make it Heisey, Francisco, and Maloney or LeCure and I'd do it, but I don't think they'll take that.

Falls City Beer
07-08-2010, 02:17 PM
Make it Heisey, Francisco, and Maloney or LeCure and I'd do it, but I don't think they'll take that.

Maybe not. Though I'm wondering who would/could trump it.

oneupper
07-08-2010, 02:18 PM
I doubt Walt is going to trade pieces of the ML team -- just my hunch, but I imagine he'd be more willing to throw 2 Juan Franciscos into a deal than he would 1 Chris Heisey or 1 Travis Wood.

I'd give 'em 3 or 4 Franciscos and track down Wily Mo and trade him to the Ms if that gets it done. Heck, they can have Balentien back too.

jojo
07-08-2010, 02:20 PM
As for what Lee got before the season.... well we should be paying half of what he fetched since half of his starts are now gone. People are still trying to pay more for Lee than what was paid for him in the offseason.

That's not really how it works though. Apparently half of baseball now wants his remaining starts.

REDREAD
07-08-2010, 02:21 PM
Mesoraco isn't replaceable within the system.


I guess my thought is that everyone is replacable.
Sure, it might be more expensive/risky to try to find another vet like Ramon Hernandez, but the future of the franchise does not depend on having an elite catcher. (Assuming that Mesoraco becomes one).

It's kind of interesting. I think Alonso is probably the most talented player in these rumors, yet no one really seems to blink an eye in including him in a trade. I know we have Votto, but in a trade, you want to give up the fewest assets as possible.

It would be nice to hold onto to Wood and Mersaco while still getting Lee, but this franchise can weather their loss.

As far as I know, the same guys that drafted/signed all this young talent are still with the club.. a good team has faith that prospects can be replaced.

I was initially hestitant to trade for Lee, but now I think it's the right thing to do. (Add a bullpen arm too, even if it costs a good prospect).

jojo
07-08-2010, 02:23 PM
Maybe not. Though I'm wondering who would/could trump it.

Maloney and Lecure probably don't help the cause. The Ms have plenty of those.

mdccclxix
07-08-2010, 02:26 PM
The Reds are in a tough spot in the sense that:

* Mez, Heisey, and Wood are "emerging" prospects - hold?

* Alonso and Frazier are "sinking" prospects - fold?

Francisco is what he is, so I like dealing him.

I don't want to get rid of any athletic guys in the low minors.

I don't think Valaika has enough power to interest the M's. Maybe Dorn would interest them as a 4th player?

TheNext44
07-08-2010, 02:28 PM
Jason Knapp , Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald and Lou Marson

J.C. Ramirez, Phillippe Aumont and Tyson Gillies

These are the sets of players that were traded for Cliff Lee in the last two years.

The Mariners might get more than this for him this year because he's posting better numbers, but I doubt much more.

I said it in the other Lee thread. I am betting that we will all be surprised by who ends up getting trading for Lee, and we will be underwhelmed. Teams will move on to Haren, Oswalt and other pitchers who become available as the trade deadline approaches if the price seems too high.

I am also betting that Lee will not perform the best for his new team, among all the starting pitchers traded this season.

Realize that Lee's numbers are benefiting from Safeco (his xFIP is actually a full run higher than his ERA.) He's a very good pitcher, the best one available, but he really is not that much better than Haren or Oswalt, or other TOR pitchers that could become available. At least not so much as to demand more than one blue chip prospect in a trade.

If other teams are willing to pay more than that, fine, God Bless them. But then I hope the Reds move on to the next best pitcher available.

The Reds do need another pitcher to be true contenders and to have a decent chance to go deep into the playoffs. It just doesn't have to be Cliff Lee.

REDREAD
07-08-2010, 02:29 PM
As for what Lee got before the season.... well we should be paying half of what he fetched since half of his starts are now gone. People are still trying to pay more for Lee than what was paid for him in the offseason.

But we have to remember that what Seattle paid for him in the offseason is not relevant now. There's supposedly about 5 teams trying to get him. That's going to drive the price up. It's happened many times in baseball -- how many times have we seen a vet signed to a low ball FA deal. He has a good year and then at midseason, a contender is willing to give up a prospect for him (when he could've been signed for nothing in the offseason).

mdccclxix
07-08-2010, 02:29 PM
I think Wood for Lee straight up should be enough, especially if Wood can pitch well in Philly this weekend. Wood has that much value as a starting point in negotiations. The M's have a revolving door at the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation when Lee is gone. Wood is in there right now. Fly ball tendencies? Welcome to Safeco.

LoganBuck
07-08-2010, 02:31 PM
Dan Wilson and Bobby Ayala, for Bret Boone and Erik Hanson anyone?

Falls City Beer
07-08-2010, 02:31 PM
Maloney and Lecure probably don't help the cause. The Ms have plenty of those.

Just going on the structure of a lot of trades for impact arms: two interesting prospects and a throw-in. Toggle through any number of arms not named Wood or Chapman. Maybe a bullpen arm?

Falls City Beer
07-08-2010, 02:32 PM
I think Wood for Lee straight up should be enough, especially if Wood can pitch well in Philly this weekend. Wood has that much value as a starting point in negotiations. The M's have a revolving door at the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation when Lee is gone. Wood is in there right now. Fly ball tendencies? Welcome to Safeco.

I do think the M's want an impact bat.

LoganBuck
07-08-2010, 02:41 PM
Dan Wilson and Bobby Ayala, for Bret Boone and Erik Hanson anyone?

Was thinking about this trade some more. This trade wound up being a catalyst to getting Bronson Arroyo, and Scott Rolen on the current team. Boone brought Neagle, Neagle brought Henson, Henson brought Wily Mo, Wily Mo brought Bronson. Boone also brought Rob Bell, Bell brought Encarnacion, Encarnacion "helped" bring Rolen.

HokieRed
07-08-2010, 02:44 PM
Some people have been blinking their eyes constantly about putting Alonso in this trade.

flyer85
07-08-2010, 02:44 PM
I heard on ESPN yesterday that supposedly the Twins offered Slowey and Ramos.

fearofpopvol1
07-08-2010, 02:47 PM
Maloney and Lecure probably don't help the cause. The Ms have plenty of those.

I would think a package of Alonso, Heisey and a Lecure or Maloney would be pretty competitive.

dougdirt
07-08-2010, 02:49 PM
That's not really how it works though. Apparently half of baseball now wants his remaining starts.

I bet a lot of baseball wanted his 30 starts this year sometime in November of last year too.

blumj
07-08-2010, 02:50 PM
I bet a lot of baseball wanted his 30 starts this year sometime in November of last year too.
It almost seemed as if the Phillies never bothered to ask anyone else.

dougdirt
07-08-2010, 02:53 PM
I heard on ESPN yesterday that supposedly the Twins offered Slowey and Ramos.

If that is what they offered, then we should be able to top it without Wood or Mesoraco. Ramos flat out isn't impressive at the plate. Terrible discipline. Alonso, Frazier and Maloney is every bit of good as an offer, especially considering that Slowey heads to arbitration starting in 2011 and will likely get somewhere around 10-12M over the next 3 years.

Red Heeler
07-08-2010, 02:54 PM
Let's get really serious about this. Chapman, Francisco, and Chris Denove for Lee and a 48 hour contract window, if the Reds can get Lee to sign an extension (5 years, $100 million?). If no contract can be negotiated, then Chapman is replaced by one of Alonso, Wood, or Mesoraco. If the M's choose Mes, they can replace Denove with anyone other than Alonso, Y. Rodriguez, or Hamilton.

BRM
07-08-2010, 02:57 PM
The M's are apparently asking for the moon. This is the latest Reds related blurb on MLBTradeRumors.com.


In case there was any doubt remaining about the Mariners' asking price, John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer clears it up. An insider tells Fay that "it's going to take a ton," but Fay does not get the sense that a trade is about to happen.

PuffyPig
07-08-2010, 03:00 PM
I think Wood for Lee straight up should be enough, especially if Wood can pitch well in Philly this weekend. Wood has that much value as a starting point in negotiations. The M's have a revolving door at the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation when Lee is gone. Wood is in there right now. Fly ball tendencies? Welcome to Safeco.

Do you really think that Wood straight up is the best offer they can get?

It would be better for them to hang unto him and get the draft picks.

dougdirt
07-08-2010, 03:06 PM
Do you really think that Wood straight up is the best offer they can get?

It would be better for them to hang unto him and get the draft picks.

Travis Wood is a lot more valuable than 2 draft picks in the 40-60 range. Not even close.

Caveat Emperor
07-08-2010, 03:07 PM
The M's are apparently asking for the moon. This is the latest Reds related blurb on MLBTradeRumors.com.

They're holding the biggest card in the deck, but watch out if some other team decides to unload a TOR starter (Dan Haren, looking your direction) and sells for a lot less than the M's are looking for.

Sometimes it's good to set the market as opposed to letting the market be set for you.

HokieRed
07-08-2010, 03:07 PM
Travis Wood is a lot more valuable than 2 draft picks in the 40-60 range. Not even close.

Agree, and so are both Yonder Alonso and Devin Mesoraco.

TheNext44
07-08-2010, 03:07 PM
The M's are apparently asking for the moon. This is the latest Reds related blurb on MLBTradeRumors.com.

Fay then added that the Reds are in a good position because they have Yonder Alonso, Todd Frazier, and Juan Francisco, who are the type of MLB ready bats that the M's need.

Those three together (and I'm pretty sure Fay meant just one of them) are less than what most posters here have been suggesting that the Reds offer.

"a ton", "the moon", are phrases that mean different things to different people. It seems to me that some Reds fans want to give up the sun, the moon and half the stars to get Lee.

It will take one blue chip and decent fodder to get Lee. The key is going to be which blue chip prospect the M's like the best.

Caveat Emperor
07-08-2010, 03:11 PM
It will take one blue chip and decent fodder to get Lee. The key is going to be which blue chip prospect the M's like the best.

I agree. Alonso / Mesoraco, an A+ - AA-level starter, and a PTBNL-level infielder gets this deal done, IMO.

dougdirt
07-08-2010, 03:13 PM
I agree. Alonso / Mesoraco, an A+ - AA-level starter, and a PTBNL-level infielder gets this deal done, IMO.

If that can't get it done, the Mariners are going to just keep him because I don't even see them getting offered that much.

mdccclxix
07-08-2010, 03:16 PM
Do you really think that Wood straight up is the best offer they can get?

It would be better for them to hang unto him and get the draft picks.

As Doug said, I think Wood should be enough. But I also think that starting in negotiations, it is a position of strength to point out, to draw them near to the idea, that 6 years of Wood is a really, really fine get for 2 months of Cliff Lee and some picks in the 30-60 range. It's not enough, but "let's bargain here", if I'm Walt. If Wood pitches well, we'll see what happens. I've sensed since his call up that this is an audition.

Cedric
07-08-2010, 03:19 PM
Travis Wood for Cliff Lee? Not even close to enough.

We aren't just talking about value for value relative to our teams. Other teams are in this chase and that will push the value way past Wood.

jojo
07-08-2010, 03:23 PM
As Doug said, I think Wood should be enough. But I also think that starting in negotiations, it is a position of strength to point out, to draw them near to the idea, that 6 years of Wood is a really, really fine get for 2 months of Cliff Lee and some picks in the 30-60 range. It's not enough, but "let's bargain here", if I'm Walt. If Wood pitches well, we'll see what happens. I've sensed since his call up that this is an audition.

Wood doesn't get a Lee deal done.

dougdirt
07-08-2010, 03:24 PM
Travis Wood for Cliff Lee? Not even close to enough.

We aren't just talking about value for value relative to our teams. Other teams are in this chase and that will push the value way past Wood.

Would you trade Travis Wood for Kevin Slowey and Wilson Ramos? That seems to be the only other offer we know of so far. I wouldn't. I think Wood can pitch as well as Slowey and isn't making $10-12M over the next 3 seasons. Ramos isn't much of an addition for me. He seems like fodder with potential at this point.

jojo
07-08-2010, 03:24 PM
Would you trade Travis Wood for Kevin Slowey and Wilson Ramos?

Yes.

bucksfan2
07-08-2010, 03:31 PM
I am trying to figure out but in what alternative reality does Travis Wood = Cliff Lee?

dougdirt
07-08-2010, 03:31 PM
Yes.

Not sure I would given the monetary issues. I don't know that Slowey out produces Wood by 10-12M over the next three years. Ramos does nothing for me. He is at best a back up until he overhauls his approach that he has had his entire career.

dougdirt
07-08-2010, 03:33 PM
I am trying to figure out but in what alternative reality does Travis Wood = Cliff Lee?

When its potentially 150 Travis Wood starts for the Reds vs 18-25 starts of Cliff Lee.....

bucksfan2
07-08-2010, 03:34 PM
When its potentially 150 Travis Wood starts for the Reds vs 18-25 starts of Cliff Lee.....

If you are afraid to trade Travis Wood + for Cliff Lee in the middle of a pennant race then you probably shouldn't be in baseball.

dougdirt
07-08-2010, 03:36 PM
If you are afraid to trade Travis Wood + for Cliff Lee in the middle of a pennant race then you probably shouldn't be in baseball.

Not afraid to do it. If it is a one for one deal, I pull the trigger. If we have to add anything else, much less another top prospect I am walking away.

mdccclxix
07-08-2010, 03:38 PM
To clarify, I'm not saying Wood will get Cliff Lee, I'm saying I think it's a fair deal in a vacuum. It is also where I would start negotiations. Then add a bat like Frazier or Francisco. Jack Z is asking for "the moon", it isn't going to happen. I'm okay if we overpay, too, but we may not have to. I get the sense the Reds have among the 3-4 best sets of players that interest the M's. That's a strength if so. Start with Wood, sell them on Wood so they don't under pay for Wood.

HokieRed
07-08-2010, 03:39 PM
I'm not ok with overpaying--ever.

bucksfan2
07-08-2010, 03:40 PM
Not afraid to do it. If it is a one for one deal, I pull the trigger. If we have to add anything else, much less another top prospect I am walking away.

Sounds like the Reds over the past 15 years or so. Lee gives this team the edge as well as an ace in the playoffs. Last season Cliff Lee started 5 games for the Phillies in the playoffs. He went 4-0 (Phillies won all his starts) with 2 CG and the other 3 games he went 8 innings. So yea I am willing to give up quite a bit to get Cliff Lee. For the past 5 years the Reds have been in the prospect hoarding mode, not it is time to turn those prospects into legit major league players.

mdccclxix
07-08-2010, 03:41 PM
Likewise with Alonso. Sell Alonso to them. He has many fine attributes. Keep it to 1 blue chip if possible.

Like many have said, Walt knows which one's to trade.

TheNext44
07-08-2010, 03:42 PM
Sounds like the Reds over the past 15 years or so. Lee gives this team the edge as well as an ace in the playoffs. Last season Cliff Lee started 5 games for the Phillies in the playoffs. He went 4-0 (Phillies won all his starts) with 2 CG and the other 3 games he went 8 innings. So yea I am willing to give up quite a bit to get Cliff Lee. For the past 5 years the Reds have been in the prospect hoarding mode, not it is time to turn those prospects into legit major league players.

I think most agree with this, but just add that Lee is not the only major league player that can help the Reds this year that is available. Ergo, no need to overpay.

PuffyPig
07-08-2010, 03:45 PM
When its potentially 150 Travis Wood starts for the Reds vs 18-25 starts of Cliff Lee.....

plus two high picks......

bucksfan2
07-08-2010, 03:45 PM
I think most agree with this, but just add that Lee is not the only major league player that can help the Reds this year that is available. Ergo, no need to overpay.

No Lee isn't the only player available but he is by far the best. No sense going out and getting a Chevy when you can get a Cadillac.

westofyou
07-08-2010, 03:46 PM
The Reds have been walking away from taking chances for most of my adult life, if some want to be the team that gets the best prospect list cover of Baseball America next spring than you don't make the trade, if you want to make a run at it than you make the deal, it's pretty simple.

Have the best farm don't mean a thing if you can never get to market.

jojo
07-08-2010, 03:48 PM
I'm not ok with overpaying--ever.

There is a time and a place for everything. Buying the last few wins to make the playoffs is the time to overpay. The Yanks and Redsox teach us that lesson every season.

dougdirt
07-08-2010, 03:51 PM
plus two high picks......

No, plus two sandwich picks. The Mariners are going to be in the top 15, so their pick will be protected. We will get two picks in the sandwich round, not in the top 30. Huge difference there.

mdccclxix
07-08-2010, 03:52 PM
In general, my position stands as

a) get Cliff Lee - the best pitcher in baseball, and the best available

b) do some selling of our prospects, which may not appear as sexy as the Rays or Rangers, yet look at Cueto, Votto, Bruce, Hanny, Heisey, the Reds now have a tradition of developing players

c) over pay if you have to - in the end. 2 blue chips and a decent 3rd prospect is my overpay limit, but if Walt's is higher, hey, at least we've got Cliff freaking Lee for a WS push.

TheNext44
07-08-2010, 03:52 PM
No Lee isn't the only player available but he is by far the best. No sense going out and getting a Chevy when you can get a Cadillac.

But Lee is not the only Cadillac on the lot, he's just the fanciest. The one with the nicest detail job that is making the customers overbid for it.

BRM
07-08-2010, 03:56 PM
From Rosenthal.


One rival general manager believes the Rangers have become the favorite to land Cliff Lee.

In order to do that, they will likely need to part with Justin Smoak, currently their everyday first baseman. And sources say the Rangers’ reluctance to include Smoak in an offer for Lee is one of the biggest remaining barriers in their talks with the Mariners.

Seattle general manager Jack Zduriencik is said to covet Smoak, a switch hitter who is well suited for the Mariners’ home ballpark.

TheNext44
07-08-2010, 03:57 PM
There is a time and a place for everything. Buying the last few wins to make the playoffs is the time to overpay. The Yanks and Redsox teach us that lesson every season.

There are two types of overpaying:

1) Paying more than an item is normally worth on an average day. The game Monopoly teaches there is a time for this.

2) Paying more than you need to. There is never a good time for this. "The Trade of 2006" taught us Reds fans that.

jojo
07-08-2010, 03:58 PM
But Lee is not the only Cadillac on the lot, he's just the fanciest. The one with the nicest detail job that is making the customers overbid for it.

Lee is the best available pitcher and likely the best available impact player overall (meaning his addition represents the biggest upgrade obtainable on the market). He also requires no commitment past this season (also meaning no risk), he comes with draft compensation, he's easy to squeeze into the current budget, and his addition also means another rival didn't add him.

There are a million ways to skin a cat but Lee is the most straightforward and likely the easiest to accomplish for a team.

Hoosier Red
07-08-2010, 03:59 PM
But Lee is not the only Cadillac on the lot, he's just the fanciest. The one with the nicest detail job that is making the customers overbid for it.

I don't know about that. If we assume that Aaron's healthy and Volquez is okay to at least split innings with Leake, we're left with a rotation of;
Arroyo
Cueto
Harang
Wood/Bailey
Volquez/Leake

In order to really be worth the hassle of making a trade, I need someone who is definitely worth 2 extra wins out of only 18-19 starts over the worst spot in the rotation. I believe Lee is that guy so I don't mind over paying to "assure" myself of the two extra wins.
Any other player and I'm talking myself into the actual improvement we'd see. It's on guys like that where the chances of a prospect turning into a star outweigh the chances at getting an extra win or two.

RichRed
07-08-2010, 03:59 PM
There is a time and a place for everything. Buying the last few wins to make the playoffs is the time to overpay. The Yanks and Redsox teach us that lesson every season.

Yes, and getting one of the best pitchers *should* sting a little when you see what you've given up. But maybe you get that World Series ring and all of a sudden, it doesn't hurt any more.

Hoosier Red
07-08-2010, 04:02 PM
There are two types of overpaying:

1) Paying more than an item is normally worth on an average day. The game Monopoly teaches there is a time for this.

2) Paying more than you need to. There is never a good time for this. "The Trade of 2006" taught us Reds fans that.

I think what the trade of 2006 taught us was to only trade for surefire improvements, overpay or not.

Gary Majewski was a better pitcher than the man he replaced. But in the small sample size of only 30 innings, it's hard to actually prove yourself worth the addition.

That's why I'm okay with overpaying for Lee. He's worth 2 extra wins out of 20 starts. That's why if we don't get Lee, I don't want to settle for any lesser starting pitcher.

New Fever
07-08-2010, 04:05 PM
No, plus two sandwich picks. The Mariners are going to be in the top 15, so their pick will be protected. We will get two picks in the sandwich round, not in the top 30. Huge difference there.

The picks could be in the top 35 it matters where Lee signs. I doubt Lee signs back with the Mariners.

lollipopcurve
07-08-2010, 04:06 PM
and his addition also means another rival didn't add him.

True, but in the case of the Reds this year, that does not appear to be an issue -- at least not so far as the NL Central and the NL as a whole goes.

mdccclxix
07-08-2010, 04:06 PM
I am assuming Lee is perfectly healthy, but he did have an ab strain and has had problems before this season as well. I'd be trumping that up somehow.

Smoak and Alonso were (are?) neck and neck at one point. It's just unfortunate Alonso was injured, more than we knew then.

fearofpopvol1
07-08-2010, 04:08 PM
If the Rangers offer up Smoak, that's going to be tough for the Reds to beat.

HotCorner
07-08-2010, 04:11 PM
Why is Smoak considered much better than Alonso?

bucksfan2
07-08-2010, 04:11 PM
If the Rangers offer up Smoak, that's going to be tough for the Reds to beat.

If the Rangers don't solve their bankruptcy issue before the trade deadline MLB won't allow them to trade for Lee. So they may be able to come up with the best package but they may not be able to get him.

HokieRed
07-08-2010, 04:12 PM
There is a time and a place for everything. Buying the last few wins to make the playoffs is the time to overpay. The Yanks and Redsox teach us that lesson every season.

If that's the end result, I'd not call it overpaying. One of my main objections to those who are advocating the trade is that they're not sufficiently willing to recognize risks--it's presented as a fait accompli that if we get Cliff Lee, we win at least the division etc. Because they think they are buying a certainty, they're willing to give way too much. I think it's a bad principle to buy when you've convinced yourself you can't do without something. It's when, or because, you don't need Cliff Lee that you can get him at the right price.

membengal
07-08-2010, 04:13 PM
Echo that on payroll. I can't imagine the Angels, say, would be down with helping the Rangers acquire $4 million in payroll, which is what would essentially be the case as MLB is kinda watching the store as a whole in Texas while the bankruptcy unfolds. Rangers would likely need to send equivalent salary back to what they are taking on, is what I have read...

dougdirt
07-08-2010, 04:15 PM
Why is Smoak considered much better than Alonso?

Because despite his struggles, he is in the major leagues right now and has tools. Where as Alonso is in AAA and has tools.

TheNext44
07-08-2010, 04:16 PM
I don't know about that. If we assume that Aaron's healthy and Volquez is okay to at least split innings with Leake, we're left with a rotation of;
Arroyo
Cueto
Harang
Wood/Bailey
Volquez/Leake

In order to really be worth the hassle of making a trade, I need someone who is definitely worth 2 extra wins out of only 18-19 starts over the worst spot in the rotation. I believe Lee is that guy so I don't mind over paying to "assure" myself of the two extra wins.
Any other player and I'm talking myself into the actual improvement we'd see. It's on guys like that where the chances of a prospect turning into a star outweigh the chances at getting an extra win or two.

I was talking about Haren, Oswalt and any other TOR that Jocketty could trade for at the deadline. Any TOR starter should be worth at least 2 extra wins. I know Haren and Oswalt are. Maybe Lee is worth more, but they all get the job done.

bucksfan2
07-08-2010, 04:20 PM
I was talking about Haren, Oswalt and any other TOR that Jocketty could trade for at the deadline. Any TOR starter should be worth at least 2 extra wins. I know Haren and Oswalt are. Maybe Lee is worth more, but they all get the job done.

Lee is a FA after this season while Oswalt has another hefty salary year next year. Also will the Astros trade within the division. Haren is someone that I would like to see Walt target because he is signed for the next few years but I don't think he is as good as Lee. Throw in his fly ball tendencies and Lee is a much better fit in Cincy.

TheNext44
07-08-2010, 04:21 PM
Lee is the best available pitcher and likely the best available impact player overall (meaning his addition represents the biggest upgrade obtainable on the market). He also requires no commitment past this season (also meaning no risk), he comes with draft compensation, he's easy to squeeze into the current budget, and his addition also means another rival didn't add him.

There are a million ways to skin a cat but Lee is the most straightforward and likely the easiest to accomplish for a team.

There are at least two other ways to skin this cat that at least will not be more expensive. Lee might be the best, but any TOR starter like Haren or Oswalt would really do the same job as Lee, even if Lee does it slightly better.

But I understand why you want to polish up Lee and make him as shiny as possible. :)

westofyou
07-08-2010, 04:21 PM
Haren won't be traded

TheNext44
07-08-2010, 04:25 PM
Lee is a FA after this season while Oswalt has another hefty salary year next year. Also will the Astros trade within the division. Haren is someone that I would like to see Walt target because he is signed for the next few years but I don't think he is as good as Lee. Throw in his fly ball tendencies and Lee is a much better fit in Cincy.

FWIW, Haren is more of ground ball pitcher than Lee. And most likely other pitchers that can help the Reds will be available at the deadline. Definitely start with Lee, but realize that if you don't get him, you can get others.

TheNext44
07-08-2010, 04:25 PM
Haren won't be traded

And you know this because..?

bucksfan2
07-08-2010, 04:26 PM
FWIW, Haren is more of ground ball pitcher than Lee. And most likely other pitchers that can help the Reds will be available at the deadline. Definitely start with Lee, but realize that if you don't get him, you can get others.

Just out of curiosity who? The only ones that I can foresee available right now are Lee, Haren, Oswalt, and maybe Carmona. Other that that what other TOR or potential TOR pitchers will be available?

RedLegSuperStar
07-08-2010, 04:26 PM
I'm not ok with overpaying--ever.

Many said we overpaid for Ken Griffey Jr. in 2000.. Thing is he paid for himself. He brought fans back to the ballpark. Junior was a soon to be FA.. yet he signed a long term deal (took less then what he would of gotten elsewhere). You net a Cliff Lee for prospects.. prospects who are blocked by ML talent.. you do it. This team has made more money this year then they did last year at this time because of where they are in the standings. Lee only boosts that. The team is getting some nice pub and Votto's name has been put out there of someone who deserves a shot and I think will not get snubbed a second time as an All Star.

I'm pretty sure I just seen the Reds leave a funeral home with a casket and all they need a some nails from the local hardware store to nail that baby down. Since Bob Castellini took over it's always WIN WIN WIN.. now's the oppertunity. You make a deal to get Lee by dealing what you have a surplus in.. Frazier, Francisco, Alonso, Wood, Maloney, Valakia, Dorn, Mesaroco, Klinker, etc..

If you want to wait and wait and wait for these prospects to amount to what standard we have for them then so be it.. but using them to obtain an ace and take the workload off Bronson, Cueto, Harang (DL), Baily (DL), Volquez (DL), & Leake (rest)

RedLegSuperStar
07-08-2010, 04:29 PM
Haren won't be traded

Actually they will listen to offers.. I don't think he will be dealt this summer.

TheNext44
07-08-2010, 04:29 PM
Just out of curiosity who? The only ones that I can foresee available right now are Lee, Haren, Oswalt, and maybe Carmona. Other that that what other TOR or potential TOR pitchers will be available?

Marcum and Carmona, and as teams figure out where they are playoff wise, a few more.

Nasty_Boy
07-08-2010, 04:31 PM
I just don't believe that the Reds can win the NL without acquiring one of these guys, and IMO Lee is the one that can flat out carry the Reds in October. I'm fine with running Bronson and Cueto out in game 2 & 3, with Harang or Leake in game 4 but Cliff Lee matches up nicely against Halladay, Hudson, Santana, Lincecum, Jimenez, or Latos. I love prospects and have been all for building from within, but most of our prospects have developed into the players we had hoped and the depth of the system should allow us to make a big time move! I don't feel like like losing one MOR arm and 1 or 2 above average bats is hurting the future when most of the future is currently in the starting lineup.

kaldaniels
07-08-2010, 04:36 PM
I'm not ok with overpaying--ever.

This from a guy who has Votto making 120 million over the next 6 years.

TRF
07-08-2010, 04:36 PM
I agree Haren won't be traded. The DBacks intimated as much this week.

Here is my deal, Alonso, Dorn, Klinker and Del Rosario.

One of Alonso/Dorn becomes the M's 1B next year, the other, LF or DH. young, cheap and LH, their power would play to Safeco well. Ask Russell Branyan. Klinker finishes this year at AAA and auditions for the rotation next year, EDR to the pen immediately or AAA.

westofyou
07-08-2010, 04:38 PM
And you know this because..?

because they don't need to shed salary too much, Haren is their best pitcher, He's locked up, jackson gets way expensive next year and the fans are already up in arms, I see them keeping him, they don't have to trade him, they lose Webb off the books (and Byrnes too) next year, that trims salary and not talent.

Can't see it myself, unless someone blows their doors off (and maybe offers a SS so they can move arb ready Drew too)

HokieRed
07-08-2010, 04:39 PM
This from a guy who has Votto making 120 million over the next 6 years.

I'm not in favor of paying him that. I think the hard truth about Joey Votto is that he's probably not going to sign with the Reds for a number the Reds can afford--given the need to do other things with the money. One reason I'm in favor of keeping Yonder Alonso--though the main reason I'm in favor of keeping him is that I trust my eyes enough to believe he can really--really--hit.

_Sir_Charles_
07-08-2010, 04:40 PM
I agree Haren won't be traded. The DBacks intimated as much this week.

Here is my deal, Alonso, Dorn, Klinker and Del Rosario.

One of Alonso/Dorn becomes the M's 1B next year, the other, LF or DH. young, cheap and LH, their power would play to Safeco well. Ask Russell Branyan. Klinker finishes this year at AAA and auditions for the rotation next year, EDR to the pen immediately or AAA.

I can see this getting it done and I don't think we'd be overpaying either. Looks pretty fair IMO.

bucksfan2
07-08-2010, 04:41 PM
I agree Haren won't be traded. The DBacks intimated as much this week.

Here is my deal, Alonso, Dorn, Klinker and Del Rosario.

One of Alonso/Dorn becomes the M's 1B next year, the other, LF or DH. young, cheap and LH, their power would play to Safeco well. Ask Russell Branyan. Klinker finishes this year at AAA and auditions for the rotation next year, EDR to the pen immediately or AAA.

The M's could have had Dorn for next to nothing in the rule V draft this past year. I just don't see him having much value if any in a trade.

kaldaniels
07-08-2010, 04:42 PM
I'm not in favor of paying him that. I think the hard truth about Joey Votto is that he's probably not going to sign with the Reds for a number the Reds can afford--given the need to do other things with the money. One reason I'm in favor of keeping Yonder Alonso--though the main reason I'm in favor of keeping him is that I trust my eyes enough to believe he can really--really--hit.

Point is, overpaying is a matter of opinion. One mans trash is anothers treasure.

TRF
07-08-2010, 04:45 PM
The M's could have had Dorn for next to nothing in the rule V draft this past year. I just don't see him having much value if any in a trade.

Yep, they could have. Dorn's bat is MLB ready, here is his slash line right now:

.331 .403 .511 .914

He's a 1B now that has time in LF. He might be Gomes-like in LF, but he has experience there. He could be a DH in the making, true but he's cheap. He's got a ton of power, and just because he wasn't taken in the Rule V draft doesn't for a minute mean he doesn't have value.

REDREAD
07-08-2010, 04:57 PM
When its potentially 150 Travis Wood starts for the Reds vs 18-25 starts of Cliff Lee.....

It's all a question of impact though.
Mario Soto was probably the best Reds pitcher I ever saw, but he never had the opportunity to make an impact in the pennant race. I think that's the fundamental disagreement here. 18-25 starts from Lee, right now, is much more valuable than Wood's career right now to me. The whole goal is to try to win the World Series. Wood is a small sacrifice, IMO.

Let's say Wood ends up being a league average pitcher.. 4.50 ERA. I know you disagree with that, but I think that's a fair projection. That makes him slightly more valuable than Slowly, or very close in value.

I have never seen Ramos play, and don't know a whole lot about him, but his career minor league stats are pretty close to Mesoraco.

IMO, it looks like the Twins have already offered pretty close to Mesoraco + Wood.
Wood will be cheaper, but has less of a ML track record.

jojo
07-08-2010, 05:03 PM
Because despite his struggles, he is in the major leagues right now and has tools. Where as Alonso is in AAA and has tools.

Smoak has defensive value too. Alonzo is probably going to struggle to be a neutral defender.

jojo
07-08-2010, 05:07 PM
But I understand why you want to polish up Lee and make him as shiny as possible. :)

The biased stuff isn't true. Lee really doesn't need to be shined up BTW. As an Ms fan, I'd rather they dealt Lee to another team with the Rangers probably being the best fit. But as a Reds fan, i'd love to seem him in Cincy.

RedLegSuperStar
07-08-2010, 05:09 PM
Texas and Ms are discussing C Davis and Salty.. Ms want Smoak

Redsfan320
07-08-2010, 05:12 PM
Thanks for creating the 2 separate "Cliff Lee" threads, Boss! Makes things a lot easier.

320

Redmachine2003
07-08-2010, 05:13 PM
Why do people feel like we have to have Lee to make the playoffs are even go deep in the playoffs. Lee hasn't help the Reds to their current standings. I am usually very much for trades but for some reason I just have a bad feeling about making a move like this right now.

dougdirt
07-08-2010, 05:13 PM
Smoak has defensive value too. Alonzo is probably going to struggle to be a neutral defender.

Scouting reports as a pro suggest Smoak is average at best defensively. Some still hang onto reports coming out of college that he is some gold glover. Nothing close to that has been suggested since he became a pro.

jojo
07-08-2010, 05:15 PM
Scouting reports as a pro suggest Smoak is average at best defensively. Some still hang onto reports coming out of college that he is some gold glover. Nothing close to that has been suggested since he became a pro.

The point is that Alonso's defense is mostly a negative.

I doubt many teams would take Alonso over Smoak.

RedsManRick
07-08-2010, 05:18 PM
It's quite possible that the M's rank them Smoak > Alonso > Davis and the catchers don't make a difference.

In any event, that the M's are considering a package of 1B & C suggests we're definitely in the running.

Benihana
07-08-2010, 05:19 PM
FWIW, here is something from Jim Callis' column yesterday:


Adam B. (Cincy, OH): With Devin Mesoraco's turnaround this year, would he rank among the top 100 prospects in baseball at this point?


Jim Callis: Maybe. This is always a tough question, because at midseason I don't keep a running tally of who would be on or off an updated Top 100. Wouldn't put him in my Top 50, but he has made a lot of positive strides this year.

I love that Devin Mesoraco has had a turnaround season, but I think some of us need to be brought back to Earth on what Mesoraco is and what he has done. He is not one of the game's Top 50 prospects, at least, according to one guy who makes "The" list. (Insert doubting of Callis' credentials here) Mesoraco has had a great half of a season, but you can't forget about what he was before that. JP Arenciba is putting up an OPS of 1.000 in AAA (PCL) and no one is getting all worked up over him. (Insert inflated stats in the PCL comment here) The point is, Mesoraco is NOT the second coming. Sell high. Get it done.

The reality is, if you want Cliff Lee, you must be prepared to give up anyone in the system not named Chapman or Yorman. Alonso, Francisco, Wood, and Mesoraco are all fair game. They can have any two from that list as far as I am concerned, plus a lesser player. Otherwise, give up your hopes of acquiring Cliff Lee.

membengal
07-08-2010, 05:20 PM
Or...Jim Callis and the folks at BA are loathe to admit a giant mistake and will be reluctant to fix it.

ETA: I believe it was BA that didn't have Mesaraco in the Cincy organization top 30, so, yeah, it will be interesting to see how they handle this season if Mes keeps it up...

Falls City Beer
07-08-2010, 05:22 PM
Not only do I think Lee is the best arm available for trade right now, I'm willing to bet he'll be the only impact starter available. I'm sure some marginal 3/4 types will be available, but I'm not sure I buy the narrative of "Oh well, if we don't get Lee, just move on to the next guy." So to me, it's probably either get Lee or cross our fingers for Volquez. It's likely just that stark a choice.

dougdirt
07-08-2010, 05:22 PM
It's all a question of impact though.
Mario Soto was probably the best Reds pitcher I ever saw, but he never had the opportunity to make an impact in the pennant race. I think that's the fundamental disagreement here. 18-25 starts from Lee, right now, is much more valuable than Wood's career right now to me. The whole goal is to try to win the World Series. Wood is a small sacrifice, IMO.

Let's say Wood ends up being a league average pitcher.. 4.50 ERA. I know you disagree with that, but I think that's a fair projection. That makes him slightly more valuable than Slowly, or very close in value.

I have never seen Ramos play, and don't know a whole lot about him, but his career minor league stats are pretty close to Mesoraco.

IMO, it looks like the Twins have already offered pretty close to Mesoraco + Wood.
Wood will be cheaper, but has less of a ML track record.

Maybe I am crazy, but I would MUCH rather have Mesoraco than Ramos and its not particularly close. One guy is hitting the cover off the ball. One guy is hitting like Willy Taveras while he was in Cincinnati.

But lets go back to Wood's value. Lets just assume you are right and he goes 4.50 ERA over 6 seasons and throws 800 innings (133.3 innings per season for 6 seasons). To replace that on the FA market, it would cost you a TON of cash. At least $5M a year if you are lucky.

It just seems to me that 6 years of Wood, plus your #2 or #3 prospect (which is where I would rate Mesoraco right now) is too much for Cliff Lee's next 19-25 starts.

dougdirt
07-08-2010, 05:28 PM
FWIW, here is something from Jim Callis' column yesterday:



I love that Devin Mesoraco has had a turnaround season, but I think some of us need to be brought back to Earth on what Mesoraco is and what he has done. He is not one of the game's Top 50 prospects, at least, according to one guy who makes "The" list. (Insert doubting of Callis' credentials here) Mesoraco has had a great half of a season, but you can't forget about what he was before that. JP Arenciba is putting up an OPS of 1.000 in AAA (PCL) and no one is getting all worked up over him. (Insert inflated stats in the PCL comment here) The point is, Mesoraco is NOT the second coming. Sell high. Get it done.

The reality is, if you want Cliff Lee, you must be prepared to give up anyone in the system not named Chapman or Yorman. Alonso, Francisco, Wood, and Mesoraco are all fair game. They can have any two from that list as far as I am concerned, plus a lesser player. Otherwise, give up your hopes of acquiring Cliff Lee.

JP Arencibia isn't good defensively at all. The guy has a lot of power, though he is currently being helped some by the PCL. The other knock on him is that this is the first season he has shown anything resembling average plate discipline in his career (this season is the only season he has ever been better than 4.00 in terms of K/BB). Solid prospect because of his power, but there are questions about the rest of his game. Not so much with Mesoraco. Still given his past, the two are probably pretty close on the prospect radar.

I think the biggest difference is that I consider both Wood and Mesoraco slightly better prospects right now than Yorman Rodriguez. Not the same upside, but much closer and safer with upside.

TRF
07-08-2010, 05:31 PM
Maybe I am crazy, but I would MUCH rather have Mesoraco than Ramos and its not particularly close. One guy is hitting the cover off the ball. One guy is hitting like Willy Taveras while he was in Cincinnati.

But lets go back to Wood's value. Lets just assume you are right and he goes 4.50 ERA over 6 seasons and throws 800 innings (133.3 innings per season for 6 seasons). To replace that on the FA market, it would cost you a TON of cash. At least $5M a year if you are lucky.

It just seems to me that 6 years of Wood, plus your #2 or #3 prospect (which is where I would rate Mesoraco right now) is too much for Cliff Lee's next 19-25 starts.

That assumes you have to replace that on the FA market. Mike Leake is going to do that more than likely. Sure he's the outlier's outlier, but the rotation for 2011 WILL have the following:

Cueto, Leake, Volquez and one of Harang/Arroyo will likely be there. that leaves the #5 spot in house with Chapman, Maloney, LeCure, Bailey, Klinker or a FA #5 starter.

I don't believe Wood is going to out produce the top four guys in the Reds rotation for 2011. He might be better than Leake. He won't be better than Cueto or Volquez. Not Arroyo. Might equal Harang.

Add in the extra revenue from a successful season and trip to the playoffs and buying that 5th starter won't be so hard.

The year picks you.

dougdirt
07-08-2010, 05:38 PM
The year picks you.

I always hear that and I just don't buy it for teams that build from within, like the Reds have. Teams that aren't a flash in the pan, everything broke just right, don't just fall off the face of the Earth. The Reds aren't going anywhere. The year didn't pick them. They put together a good organization full of good players. That is why they are here, not because 'the year picked them'.

TheNext44
07-08-2010, 05:38 PM
The biased stuff isn't true. Lee really doesn't need to be shined up BTW. As an Ms fan, I'd rather they dealt Lee to another team with the Rangers probably being the best fit. But as a Reds fan, i'd love to seem him in Cincy.

I was just teasing. And we all have biases and no one wants to admit them, so no worries. I'd be worried if you didn't have an M's bias. :)

Playadlc
07-08-2010, 05:41 PM
Let's say hypothetically that the M's only want Chapman and a deal could only get done if we sent him in a deal for Lee. If we knew for 100% certainty that we could resign Lee to a 4-5 year deal, do you make the move? What if we can only outbid another team if we include Chapman in a deal?

TheNext44
07-08-2010, 05:41 PM
It seemed like in Jocketty's last job, the year picked him nearly every year. :)

I think we are all still shell shocked from the last 10 years. But the Reds were contenders from the late 60's to 1981, nearly every year, then from 1984-1999 nearly every year.

This idea that this might be the only year the Reds contend is just silly.

traderumor
07-08-2010, 05:42 PM
Let's say hypothetically that the M's only want Chapman and a deal could only get done if we sent him in a deal for Lee. If we knew for 100% certainty that we could resign Lee to a 4-5 year deal, do you make the move? What if we can only outbid another team if we include Chapman in a deal?No, Lee's too old for a 4-5 year deal. Chapman is only getting traded by fantasy team owners.

oneupper
07-08-2010, 05:43 PM
Let's say hypothetically that the M's only want Chapman and a deal could only get done if we sent him in a deal for Lee. If we knew for 100% certainty that we could resign Lee to a 4-5 year deal, do you make the move? What if we can only outbid another team if we include Chapman in a deal?

I don't think the Reds can afford a LT deal for Lee. What's wrong with having him as a rental?