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View Full Version : Would a half season of David Weathers be a boost to the bullpen?



savafan
07-08-2010, 11:18 AM
I think the Reds are really 2 pitchers away from possibly dominating the post season, a TOR starter and a solid middle reliever. If Walt is able to swing the deal for Lee, would it be worth it to take a flyer on David Weathers, who is sitting at home and wouldn't cost anything more in the way of prospects to help shore up this bullpen?

Always Red
07-08-2010, 11:20 AM
No.

savafan
07-08-2010, 11:29 AM
No.

Nice analysis :lol:

OnBaseMachine
07-08-2010, 11:29 AM
No.

Bob Borkowski
07-08-2010, 11:30 AM
No.

Chip R
07-08-2010, 11:31 AM
Why? For old times sake?

savafan
07-08-2010, 11:33 AM
Why? For old times sake?

He could be a solid middle reliever, better than some of the rookies the Reds have run out there, is a veteran with playoff experience, and wouldn't cost the team any prospects, plus he's said he'd only come back to play in Cincinnati. Those are the main reasons.

TRF
07-08-2010, 11:34 AM
It'd take him a month or two to get ready.

Let him retire in peace.

savafan
07-08-2010, 11:42 AM
It'd take him a month or two to get ready.

Let him retire in peace.

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/06/08/weathers-willing/


“I’m also long tossing,” Weathers said. “It wouldn’t take long for me to get ready. After pitching all those years, I could get it together quick.”

Hoosier Red
07-08-2010, 11:50 AM
Not a chance.

First of all you have to ask, who is David Weather's replacing?

Cordero? No
Masset? Maybe but still no I'll explain why later.
Rhodes? No
Bray/Chapman? If he were left handed
Owings? Does he still pitch for the team? Oh he does, and he's been pretty effective? Awesome.
Jordan Smith? He's been excellent
Logan Ondrusek? Excellent since he was called up.

So essentially you're maybe replacing one of three pitchers with David Weathers? Masset, Smith, or Ondrusek.

First let's make some assumptions;
1) David Weathers is pitching at his best. (A big assumption and unlikely)
I took 2001 when he pitched 86 innings and gave up 23 runs for an ERA+ of 179.
2) Each pitcher replaces his first half stats, but with Nick Masset's inning load so if you gave up 5 runs in 11 2/3 innings, you'd give up 16 runs in 37 IP.
----- -------- ----------- -------------
Nick Masset 37 IP in 86 team games. 22 Earned Runs. If we assume he'd pitch 37 more innings in the remaining games, we'll give him 22 earned Runs.
-
Jordan Smith 5 runs in 11 2/3 IP so far. If we assume 37 IP for him, we're looking at 16 ER.
-
Logan Ondrusek 12 runs in 22 2/3 IP. We'll equate that to 20 ER in 37 IP.
-
"Super Dave" 23 runs in 86 IP, 10 runs in 37 IP.

So even at his absolute best, David Weathers would save 12 runs off of the worst of these pitchers half season performances. When you consider that Ondrusek and Masset have both pitched much much better than their overall numbers for the last few months and Jordan Smith has such a small sample size but has pitched well in most of his outings, do you think David Weathers would save runs over those three?

nate
07-08-2010, 11:51 AM
Just to expand on what those before have said:

Nope.

:cool:

savafan
07-08-2010, 11:54 AM
Thanks Hoosier Red, Masset is who I was considering replacing. I know he has been pitching better lately, but he still makes me nervous. What about inherited runners allowed to score, is there a statistic for that anywhere?

Always Red
07-08-2010, 11:57 AM
Thanks Hoosier Red, Masset is who I was considering replacing. I know he has been pitching better lately, but he still makes me nervous. What about inherited runners allowed to score, is there a statistic for that anywhere?

Weathers made me way more nervous than Masset does, and that was even when Dave was pitching well.

Weathers is a "feel" RP, not a guy with "stuff". It would take him too long to get any sense of feel.

Weathers was an important and sometimes underestimated part of this bullpen for a long time. But if he could still pitch, then he would still be pitching.

HokieRed
07-08-2010, 12:49 PM
I've a better idea for an experienced reliever, though not one as experienced as Weathers (who is?): Jared Burton.

Hoosier Red
07-08-2010, 01:14 PM
Thanks Hoosier Red, Masset is who I was considering replacing. I know he has been pitching better lately, but he still makes me nervous. What about inherited runners allowed to score, is there a statistic for that anywhere?

There is but I don't have it readily available. To be perfectly fair that's a better way to judge a reliever, or at least a combination of the two. (Sort of a plus/minus) for relievers.

The long explanation goes to why I'm not in favor of making trades or signing players unless they are a clear upgrade(Cliff Lee over Travis Wood or Stephen Drew over Orlando Cabrera types) because any small improvement is unlikely to get noticed in the statistical noise.

Chip R
07-08-2010, 01:30 PM
He could be a solid middle reliever, better than some of the rookies the Reds have run out there, is a veteran with playoff experience, and wouldn't cost the team any prospects, plus he's said he'd only come back to play in Cincinnati. Those are the main reasons.


It wouldn't cost them any prospects? Who is going off the 40 man roster when he goes on? He could be a solid middle reliever or it could take him some time to get his bearings which would be in the middle of a pennant race. Also, why the pressing need for Weathers? I think the bullpen has been very good lately. Who would you rather have, our bullpen or StL's?

Rojo
07-08-2010, 03:57 PM
Pricier, but what about Kerry Wood?

Raisor
07-08-2010, 06:31 PM
I hear Jeff Shaw is tan, rested, and ready to go.


That's right, I pulled the Shaw card.

dsmith421
07-08-2010, 07:44 PM
Kent Mercker lives right up the road, you know.

Chip R
07-08-2010, 11:39 PM
Tom Browning is tanned, rested and ready.

oregonred
07-09-2010, 12:03 AM
Bring the Cowboy ought of the booth. He can announce from innings 1-7 then join the bullpen in the 8th.

Rojo
07-09-2010, 03:30 AM
Serious about Wood. Bray's come on strong but Massett, Ondrusek and Smith are hot and cold, the last two rooks. Adding a K-an-inning guy like Wood would really nail down games.

Ron Madden
07-09-2010, 03:32 AM
Doesn't Scott Sullivan live right across the river?

Ron Madden
07-09-2010, 03:40 AM
All jokes aside. I believe Sullivan is one of if not the most valuable relief pitchers the Reds have ever sent to the mound.

JMHO

bucksfan2
07-09-2010, 09:51 AM
All jokes aside. I believe Sullivan is one of if not the most valuable relief pitchers the Reds have ever sent to the mound.

JMHO

:thumbup:

Hoosier Red
07-09-2010, 09:59 AM
Serious about Wood. Bray's come on strong but Massett, Ondrusek and Smith are hot and cold, the last two rooks. Adding a K-an-inning guy like Wood would really nail down games.

I'd love to get Kerry Wood. Guys like Wood who are closers but "not really" closers are great to add as set up guys for the stretch run. I wouldn't give up much to get him(see my earlier posts on the value of bullpen arms.) But I'd certainly like him.

Chip R
07-09-2010, 09:59 AM
All jokes aside. I believe Sullivan is one of if not the most valuable relief pitchers the Reds have ever sent to the mound.

JMHO


That guy absolutely owned Jeff Bagwell. I don't think Bagwell ever got a hit off him or it wasn't until the latter part of Sullivan's career.

BRM
07-09-2010, 10:03 AM
That guy absolutely owned Jeff Bagwell. I don't think Bagwell ever got a hit off him or it wasn't until the latter part of Sullivan's career.

Bagwell was 0-24 with 6 walks against Sullivan.

Rojo
07-09-2010, 02:37 PM
I wouldn't give up much to get him

It probably wouldn't take much. He's in the last year of $10m/year contract. The Indians would probably just take the $5m salary relief. Throw 'em McClure or less.