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GOYA
07-09-2010, 02:33 AM
Entire Season AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS

Month April .115 61 4 7 2 1 1 3 2 21 .141 .230 .370

Month May .531 32 10 17 5 1 3 16 3 2 .571 1.031 1.603

Month June .292 65 7 19 8 0 1 5 2 15 .309 .462 .770

Month July .364 33 4 12 1 1 3 5 2 6 .417 .727 1.144

Since April :

.369/.423/.669 - 1.092

3.3 K/BB ratio

48% of his hits are for extra bases

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2010, 04:50 AM
191 ABs, 44 Ks and 9 BB.

He has been getting on base more, but that's mostly because he's been hitting so well. He's still striking out a lot and not walking all that much.

I just don't see any way he could get away with the poor walk rate in the majors while striking out at a near 25% clip. I think his OBP in the majors would have a strong chance of dipping below .300.

osuceltic
07-09-2010, 12:36 PM
191 ABs, 44 Ks and 9 BB.

He has been getting on base more, but that's mostly because he's been hitting so well. ...

If only he could trade some of those hits for walks ...

camisadelgolf
07-09-2010, 12:41 PM
If only he could trade some of those hits for walks ...
That would keep his OBP the same and decrease the slugging. ;)

But you're right--if he were more like a .250/.320/.480 hitter, he'd be taken a lot more seriously.

GIDP
07-09-2010, 12:45 PM
That would keep his OBP the same and decrease the slugging. ;)

But you're right--if he were more like a .250/.320/.480 hitter, he'd be taken a lot more seriously.

If he hit .330/.360/.530 and had a respectable k/BB ratio it would be taken just as serious as anyone.

BRM
07-09-2010, 12:47 PM
But you're right--if he were more like a .250/.320/.480 hitter, he'd be taken a lot more seriously.

Yeah, because most posters on this board love hitters with low OBP's.

dougdirt
07-09-2010, 12:56 PM
Yeah, because most posters on this board love hitters with low OBP's.

The difference is, it would show that he had some semblance of reaching first base without it being via a hit. Guys who only reach base via the hit either suck, or strike out about 8% of the time they step to the plate and hit .300. Francisco isn't going to strike out that little, so he isn't going to hit .300, so he has to start walking more.

RedsManRick
07-09-2010, 01:33 PM
I see Fransisco and just think "LH Marcus Thames". They're even built the same way. I think Fransisco will have a decent major league career, in that he'll be in the league for a while, but his best case scenario is Ruben Sierra.

mdccclxix
07-09-2010, 01:46 PM
I think Juan can get things straightened out for a Sept 2011 call up for good. He'll still be just 24.

GOYA
07-09-2010, 02:56 PM
I find it very strange that a guy hitting .369/.423/.669 over his last 3 months would need to straighten anything out. The man can hit. Seriously hit. He's done it consistently over many levels. The perceived problem with lack of walks is all about putting him in a mold that he just doesn't fit.

And most importantly, he still seems to be improving.

dougdirt
07-09-2010, 03:07 PM
I find it very strange that a guy hitting .369/.423/.669 over his last 3 months would need to straighten anything out. The man can hit. Seriously hit. He's done it consistently over many levels. The perceived problem with lack of walks is all about putting him in a mold that he just doesn't fit.

And most importantly, he still seems to be improving.

Because guys who post similar K/BB rates as him have never had a stretch of 3 seasons as above average hitters in the major leagues without improving their K/BB rates.... It isn't about a lack of walks, its about the lack of discipline. Guys with low walk rates can succeed, but they must offset it with not striking out at even average rates (15-17%).

I have shown the math before, he must improve somewhere in order to get to the point where he would be a reliable hitter in the majors. As his rates stand right now, he could hit 30 doubles, 2 triples and 30 HR's and still only post an OBP of .310-.320 with a BABIP in the .300-.310 range. The power would be nice of course, as that would also mean a .515 SLG. With such a low margin for error in the OBP department, it is incredibly concerning that as he steps to the majors his walks go down a little and his strikeouts go up a little. If that happens, he profiles to be a sub .300 OBP guy. Guys like that don't start, especially when they are poor defensively.

aubashbrother
07-09-2010, 03:51 PM
Because guys who post similar K/BB rates as him have never had a stretch of 3 seasons as above average hitters in the major leagues without improving their K/BB rates.... It isn't about a lack of walks, its about the lack of discipline. Guys with low walk rates can succeed, but they must offset it with not striking out at even average rates (15-17%).

I have shown the math before, he must improve somewhere in order to get to the point where he would be a reliable hitter in the majors. As his rates stand right now, he could hit 30 doubles, 2 triples and 30 HR's and still only post an OBP of .310-.320 with a BABIP in the .300-.310 range. The power would be nice of course, as that would also mean a .515 SLG. With such a low margin for error in the OBP department, it is incredibly concerning that as he steps to the majors his walks go down a little and his strikeouts go up a little. If that happens, he profiles to be a sub .300 OBP guy. Guys like that don't start, especially when they are poor defensively.


even if he was batting 7th or 8th that wouldnt offset the low obp ?

dougdirt
07-09-2010, 04:04 PM
even if he was batting 7th or 8th that wouldnt offset the low obp ?

Offset it in which way? Make it less of an issue? Sure, slightly. But he would still be an out machine with no margin for bad 'luck'.

redsfandan
07-09-2010, 10:35 PM
I wonder if Alonso/Francisco could've landed Lee. Probably not but who knows...

GIDP
07-09-2010, 10:37 PM
I think Seattle really likes Smoak a lot. I'm not sure they would have taken any other offers.

redsfandan
07-09-2010, 10:42 PM
I think Seattle really likes Smoak a lot. I'm not sure they would have taken any other offers.
Yeah, I know. That's why I said probably not. But I wonder what Alonso/Francisco could bring.

Vottomatic
07-10-2010, 04:18 AM
He appears to be a slightly better Willy Mo Pena IMHO.

Edd Roush
07-10-2010, 11:43 AM
He appears to be a slightly better Willy Mo Pena IMHO.

Agreed. I would love to see us cash him in for a slightly better Arroyo.

Benihana
07-10-2010, 05:22 PM
Agreed. I would love to see us cash him in for a slightly better Arroyo.

x2

Could we assume that Walt Jocketty is a slightly better Krivsky?

I think Francisco will have value at the major league level, but probably as a reserve/role player that can be a good LH bat off the bench and/or insurance option for Rolen's back. But of course, if they could parlay him into another Arroyo (or better), I wouldn't think twice.

REDblooded
07-10-2010, 11:58 PM
WHO CARES about his OBP? Seriously... If the guy still reaches base at a decent clip because he still manages to make enough contact to be successful, it puts WAY more pressure on the defense than a guy drawing a walk... I've never seen an overthrown throw to first on a walk. I've never seen the SS misplay the bounce on a walk...

Seriously. If the guy continues to scald the ball, strike out more than normal, but plays with an aggressive approach, I fail to see the issue... If he stops making hard contact consistently, then I'm fine with the worry. Outside of that, all I'm witnessing is a bunch of sabermatricians freaking out because they don't know how to deal with an outlier.

fearofpopvol1
07-11-2010, 12:53 AM
WHO CARES about his OBP? Seriously... If the guy still reaches base at a decent clip because he still manages to make enough contact to be successful, it puts WAY more pressure on the defense than a guy drawing a walk... I've never seen an overthrown throw to first on a walk. I've never seen the SS misplay the bounce on a walk...

Seriously. If the guy continues to scald the ball, strike out more than normal, but plays with an aggressive approach, I fail to see the issue... If he stops making hard contact consistently, then I'm fine with the worry. Outside of that, all I'm witnessing is a bunch of sabermatricians freaking out because they don't know how to deal with an outlier.

Because...MLB pitchers are better and smarter than AAA pitchers. They have better stuff and since Cisco cannot take a walk, they're going to throw him stuff out of the zone all day every day and he's going to swing at it. Heck, even Stubbs and Bruce are having big time problems with this same thing right now.

REDblooded
07-11-2010, 02:06 AM
Because...MLB pitchers are better and smarter than AAA pitchers. They have better stuff and since Cisco cannot take a walk, they're going to throw him stuff out of the zone all day every day and he's going to swing at it. Heck, even Stubbs and Bruce are having big time problems with this same thing right now.

I'll give you the fact that on the average major league pitchers make better pitches... However, you can't discount the fact that a hit is worth more than a walk... I've seen the sabermetric values on a single over a walk... Even in that type of game, they're worth more. I would STILL rather have a hitter that has an aggressive approach, makes contact at a decent clip, versus a guy that's afraid to swing, would rather try to walk his way on base, and still get out.

dougdirt
07-11-2010, 07:01 AM
I'll give you the fact that on the average major league pitchers make better pitches... However, you can't discount the fact that a hit is worth more than a walk... I've seen the sabermetric values on a single over a walk... Even in that type of game, they're worth more. I would STILL rather have a hitter that has an aggressive approach, makes contact at a decent clip, versus a guy that's afraid to swing, would rather try to walk his way on base, and still get out.

Francisco doesn't make contact at a decent clip though. That's the problem. It isn't that he doesn't walk. Its that he doesn't walk and strikes out a bunch. If he struck out 10% of the time, no one would care. But he strikes out 20-25% of the time.

RedsManRick
07-11-2010, 11:55 AM
WHO CARES about his OBP? Seriously... If the guy still reaches base at a decent clip because he still manages to make enough contact to be successful, it puts WAY more pressure on the defense than a guy drawing a walk...

The key word here is "If". The point Doug has made over and over again is that batters with Fransisco's profile do NOT "still make enough contact to be successful" once they get to the majors. Your premise is based on a flawed assumption.

The better pitchers of the major leagues eat guys like Fransisco for lunch. He won't hit .280 in the major leagues. Pitchers will throw better pitches for strikes, more attractive pitches for balls, and fewer mistakes that Fransisco can crush. He'll make less and weaker contact than he does now.

In terms of current production, I'll take a hit over a walk 10 times out of 10. But we're talking about how Fransisco's skills will translate in to major league production. And everything we know about that translation says that you can't strike out so much and walk so little and still be successful in the majors. Look at Brandon Wood. Look at Chris Davis. Those are just two examples of guys, who actually walked more than Fransisco, who made as much as contact and hit for more power. But they had holes in their swings and have been eaten alive by major league pitching.

Betterread
07-11-2010, 01:54 PM
The key word here is "If". The point Doug has made over and over again is that batters with Fransisco's profile do NOT "still make enough contact to be successful" once they get to the majors. Your premise is based on a flawed assumption.

The better pitchers of the major leagues eat guys like Fransisco for lunch. He won't hit .280 in the major leagues. Pitchers will throw better pitches for strikes, more attractive pitches for balls, and fewer mistakes that Fransisco can crush. He'll make less and weaker contact than he does now.

In terms of current production, I'll take a hit over a walk 10 times out of 10. But we're talking about how Fransisco's skills will translate in to major league production. And everything we know about that translation says that you can't strike out so much and walk so little and still be successful in the majors. Look at Brandon Wood. Look at Chris Davis. Those are just two examples of guys, who actually walked more than Fransisco, who made as much as contact and hit for more power. But they had holes in their swings and have been eaten alive by major league pitching.

No - the key word is "why". As in why does a hitter strike out too much and walk too little. Francisco's problem is that he is still learning to pick up breaking pitches and decide whether to swing or miss. To me, that is something he can potentiallly learn. You know why? Because Jay Bruce, for example, had the same problem. He struck out at a far higher rate than Francisco. But I didn't worry that much about it - because his swing is good. Francisco can hit ML fastballs, but he needs to work on ML breaking pitches. I am more worried about Frazier, because his swing is weird, and its starting to result in him not catching up to AAA pitches.
I am so tired of people just dropping statistics as logic. They are data, and you need to be able to analyze the data in the context of a specific player to try to draw conclusions. If you just say: "if this number exists, then that will be the result". That's just lazy reliance on data that someone else has determined has a general application.

Orenda
07-11-2010, 03:57 PM
I am so tired of people just dropping statistics as logic. They are data, and you need to be able to analyze the data in the context of a specific player to try to draw conclusions. If you just say: "if this number exists, then that will be the result". That's just lazy reliance on data that someone else has determined has a general application.

Of course the counter argument is that some people are lazy in that they fail to look at what the numbers tell about a player's strengths and weaknesses. So instead they just claim that an AAA slugger will have just as much of a chance to become a successful ML player as another guy who might have a more disciplined approach. They are probably more prone to trust their eyes and their imaginations about what a player can be while failing to ever consider what the player is.

In regards to Francisco, I don't think people are just looking at his numbers and finding comparable players. They are looking at data that describes the game of baseball and more importantly what type of baseball player he is and has been in the past.

Juan Francisco is an aggressive free swinger, there is little evidence that suggests he has improved his plate discipline as a minor league player. These "numbers" people are simply stating that as is, Juan Francisco's offensive value will be based strongly on his slugging % and batting average and because of his aggressive approach they have doubts that he can sustain that production consistently when facing higher quality pitchers who not only have better stuff, but also have more access to better scouting reports.

Personally I don't consider myself a saber guy, not because I think that I can see the game so well that I don't need to look at numbers, but because I know that those "numbers" people have studied the topic more in depth than I so I wouldn't want to raise myself to their level without merit.

I will admit that I don't have much faith in JF as a prospect based mostly on his numbers; so the point you make about failing to watch him play substantially might be preventing me from realizing that he is an outlier, is a fair criticism.

However the most interesting aspect about Juan Francisco the prospect is that he highlights the growing philosophical divide between what type of baseball player is desired IMO. To be honest with you, I don't care if Juan Francisco is an outlier, as a fan I would rather see a team place a higher emphasis on identifying players who can provide consistent offensive value, guys who get on base, slug, and when all else fails drive up pitch counts. Hell, I'd be happy if the reds traded JF and he turned into an All-Star, as long as they got back smart baseball development people who understand that the numbers and scouting are not at odds with one another. As a fan, I'd have more faith in the latter producing consistent winners as opposed to an organization who routinely rolls the dice with outliers.

mdccclxix
07-11-2010, 04:06 PM
I'm looking forward to seeing Francisco in Cincinnati again in September because Nix is having a pretty rough year at the plate.

Overall, I agree that Juan needs to fix his approach, that's why I'm hoping he adjusts well in AAA next year. I think he can have a Cruz type of peak at 25, 26 or 27 years old. Can we keep him that long?

RedsManRick
07-11-2010, 04:14 PM
No - the key word is "why". As in why does a hitter strike out too much and walk too little. Francisco's problem is that he is still learning to pick up breaking pitches and decide whether to swing or miss. To me, that is something he can potentiallly learn.

I agree 100%. If and when he develops that skill, my outlook on his future will adjust accordingly. But history has shown us that is a skill few players develop in AAA.


You know why? Because Jay Bruce, for example, had the same problem. He struck out at a far higher rate than Francisco. But I didn't worry that much about it - because his swing is good. Francisco can hit ML fastballs, but he needs to work on ML breaking pitches. I am more worried about Frazier, because his swing is weird, and its starting to result in him not catching up to AAA pitches.

Jay Bruce also walked TWICE as often as Fransisco. He was able to lay off those pitches that he couldn't hit -- because he could recognize them and had the discipline not to swing. Bruce is not a great contact hitter and has, on occasion, chased pitches out of the zone. But he was much, much better at this than Fransisco -- and he's still struggling with this on occasion in the majors.
Fransisco's problem is not just that he can't hit ML breaking pitches. It's that he either can't tell the difference between a breaking pitch and a fastball or he can and just can't stop himself from swinging at them anyways.

Bruce is not as good at making contact as Fransisco. But his ability to not swing at crap he can't hit has allowed him to transition to the majors. If Fransisco does not develop this ability, he'll simply be facing more stuff that he can't hit -- and will chase it.


I am so tired of people just dropping statistics as logic. They are data, and you need to be able to analyze the data in the context of a specific player to try to draw conclusions. If you just say: "if this number exists, then that will be the result". That's just lazy reliance on data that someone else has determined has a general application.

Nice strawman. I'm so tired of people assuming that because stats are used, scouting and other qualitative analytical methods are not being used as well. You either have an simplistic understanding of statistical analysis (presuming it is done in ignorance of context) or of Doug's analysis in this specific case. Doug has gone in to great detail here and on his blog, using both stats and scouting information to discuss Fransisco's future.

Why do you think all of the other guy's in Fransisco's comp group struggled to make it in the majors? Many of them, if not most of them, had the exact same problem Fransisco does. They couldn't stop themselves from swinging at stuff they couldn't hit, usually breaking pitches. Was it possible for them to adjust as you've suggested? Of course it was. Did they? By and large, no, they did not.

Guys with similar skill sets TEND to follow similar paths. Obviously Fransisco could develop a new skill. He could improve his ability to recognize pitches and/or lay off of the ones he can't hit. But history has shown us that that skill is not one that players typically develop in the major leagues. Players do, on occasion, improve this. But Fransisco has a ways to go. And if he does not develop that skill, the prognosis for his future is not good.

If Fransisco starts showing the ability to not chase stuff he can't hit, it will show up in an increased walk rate. When that happens, I promise you that Doug (and Cyclone and myself) will be at the front of the line saying Fransisco has a good career ahead of him. But history tells us not to get our hopes up not to try and predict that a guy will fundamentally change his demonstrated ability.

mdccclxix
07-11-2010, 05:07 PM
If Fransisco starts showing the ability to not chase stuff he can't hit, it will show up in an increased walk rate. When that happens, I promise you that Doug (and Cyclone and myself) will be at the front of the line saying Fransisco has a good career ahead of him. But history tells us not to get our hopes up not to try and predict that a guy will fundamentally change his demonstrated ability.

At 23 years old, with tons of power, he has time to figure some things out at AAA. I'd be more concerned if he was rushed to MLB right now. I'm a bit optimistic.

GIDP
07-11-2010, 05:09 PM
At 23 years old, with tons of power, he has time to figure some things out at AAA. I'd be more concerned if he was rushed to MLB right now. I'm a bit optimistic.

Not to pile on the guy but he hasnt shown much improvement if any no matter the level.

mdccclxix
07-11-2010, 05:14 PM
Not to pile on the guy but he hasnt shown much improvement if any no matter the level.

He's gone from over 7 K's per BB to around 5 per walk. That's something.

dougdirt
07-11-2010, 05:32 PM
He's gone from over 7 K's per BB to around 5 per walk. That's something.

Not just that, watching him, you can see the improvements in his pitch selection. He is improving, but its a process and its a long one.

GIDP
07-11-2010, 05:38 PM
He's gone from over 7 K's per BB to around 5 per walk. That's something.

Fair enough.

RedsManRick
07-11-2010, 06:40 PM
He's gone from over 7 K's per BB to around 5 per walk. That's something.

It's progress. Of players with an .800 OPS or better last year, the lowest BB:K was 0.33 -- FWIW. Only 1 player period was south of 0.20, Bengie Molina.

Betterread
07-11-2010, 10:06 PM
It's progress. Of players with an .800 OPS or better last year, the lowest BB:K was 0.33 -- FWIW. Only 1 player period was south of 0.20, Bengie Molina.

All minor league players? No. You are using ML players data.
You are using MLB data to compare to a minor leaguer. That's apples to oranges.
Francisco is in the minors. He plays 3B in the minors. Scott Rolen is the Reds 3b. He is much better than Francisco.
Torii Hunter and Alfonso Soriano never had an OPS higher than .330 or had more than 40 walks a year (in the majors) until they were 29 and they are rich and famous now.

mdccclxix
07-11-2010, 10:38 PM
All minor league players? No. You are using ML players data.
You are using MLB data to compare to a minor leaguer. That's apples to oranges.
Francisco is in the minors. He plays 3B in the minors. Scott Rolen is the Reds 3b. He is much better than Francisco.
Torii Hunter and Alfonso Soriano never had an OPS higher than .330 or had more than 40 walks a year (in the majors) until they were 29 and they are rich and famous now.

Francisico is an odd case though. People are right to doubt him, but at the same time you have to appreciate his uniqueness. I looked around the last five years in the IL and all of MiLB and only found Howie Kendrick as a guy in AAA at 22 that was OPSing decently and striking out 4 times per walk. Everyone else was in rookie ball or like 29 years old in AAA. Juan is a good, but definitely odd, MLB prospect.

Mario-Rijo
07-11-2010, 10:41 PM
All minor league players? No. You are using ML players data.
You are using MLB data to compare to a minor leaguer. That's apples to oranges.
Francisco is in the minors. He plays 3B in the minors. Scott Rolen is the Reds 3b. He is much better than Francisco.
Torii Hunter and Alfonso Soriano never had an OPS higher than .330 or had more than 40 walks a year (in the majors) until they were 29 and they are rich and famous now.

Those guys you mention didn't have as bad K/BB ratios in the minors either. Francisco has always been a lot worse in this regard than most anyone who has had any kind of remote success in the bigs. Wily Mo Pena was markedly better.

corkedbat
07-12-2010, 12:31 AM
Not only do you have to worry about how his bat (and lack of walks) ytanslate against major league pitching, but his deffense is a major conscern too. Unlessm things have changed he seems just brutal with the glove, no matter where they stick him.

Maybe the Tribe, KC or the A's would be interested in a young DH. Francisco & a prospect to OAK for Michael Taylor?

zjr1717
07-12-2010, 01:16 AM
I don't have faith in Francsico to be consistent power threat in the majors. I'm not saying that he couldn't have a few monster seasons, and Its possible that he could become so dangerous that a decent walk rate could be created by pitchers avoiding him so much, but I don't think Francisco's power is quite that prodigous.

Someone made the Ruben Sierra/Marcus Thames comparisons earlier in the thread, and I think that those comparisons are apt. One thing those 2 guys have in common beyond the fact theat they are hackers on an order reserved only the for the few, is that they're highly volatile performers. A guy like Ruben sierra could post a line like 306/347/543 one year, and then OPS in the mid 700s the very next. Thames is a tad more consistent because he has the luxury of being mostly a platoon player, not playing everyday for full season like Ruben did, and getting to face his handedness of choice more often.

Anyway, guys like Thames, Sierra, and Francisco don't walk enough, so they're at the mercy of their contact rates and how many flyballs can turn into homers. Now a guy like Francisco could be very successful in GABP, because lots of flyballs will become homers for him. He could also find a semblance plate discipline, maybe he is, maybe he isn't, but I don't have much faith for him to radically change as a hitter.

I say sell high while we can, I just can't value a guy who hacks as much as Francisco especially with a team so full of hackers already. Also, he's doesnt exactly have "manos de oro" in the field either. Francisco may very well turn into a prodigous power hitter some day, but I value him less than other reds prospects who have some ability to judge the zone. He's definitely an interesting prospect, but I just don't see him at third base, and there are better options for left field IMO.

RedsManRick
07-12-2010, 02:58 PM
All minor league players? No. You are using ML players data.
You are using MLB data to compare to a minor leaguer. That's apples to oranges.
Francisco is in the minors. He plays 3B in the minors. Scott Rolen is the Reds 3b. He is much better than Francisco.
Torii Hunter and Alfonso Soriano never had an OPS higher than .330 or had more than 40 walks a year (in the majors) until they were 29 and they are rich and famous now.

I assume you meant "OBP"? Your point is well taken. There are successful major leaguers who had somewhat similar profiles as Fransisco. 2 thoughts:

1) While somewhat similar, their BB/K issues were of a lesser degree than Fransisco's. Soriano had a 2.71 BB:K ratio in the minor leagues and also had game changing speed that let him beat out infield singles to keep his avg up. Hunter was at 2.51. Fransisco sits at 6.14. He's got a LONG ways to go.

2) When examining his chances of making it by looking at comparable players, the proper comp group is not the guys who made it and were successful, but of all players of similar skills at his age in the minor leagues. I've admittedly not looked at that data recently. I believe Doug has. One can almost always find exceptions to the rule. But these examples only show that it's possible -- they don't speak to likelihood in any way whatsoever.

I don't think anybody here is saying that Fransisco will absolutely, positively not make it. What we are saying, if I can presume to speak for others, is that it's a big uphill battle for him. That he's already in AAA could give one the impression that he's almost ready. Hes' not. He's going to need to develop quite a bit before his skill set is transferable. Maybe that happens, maybe not. But if we can turn that possibility in to some realized production on the 25 man roster during the 2010 season, I'd happily do it.

Kc61
07-12-2010, 04:54 PM
Francisco may very well turn into a prodigous power hitter some day, but I value him less than other reds prospects who have some ability to judge the zone..

I was ok until this sentence.

Seems to be that strike zone judgment is very important, but you also have to produce.

In Francisco, I see a guy who produces but needs to improve his strike zone judgment.

Most of the other guys, well, they don't produce nearly as much. They may walk more, they may have better strike zone judgment. But where is the production?

dougdirt
07-12-2010, 06:59 PM
I was ok until this sentence.

Seems to be that strike zone judgment is very important, but you also have to produce.

In Francisco, I see a guy who produces but needs to improve his strike zone judgment.

Most of the other guys, well, they don't produce nearly as much. They may walk more, they may have better strike zone judgment. But where is the production?

Here is the problem, production in the minors doesn't translate seamlessly. Guys with what you call 'lesser production' are likely to out produce Francisco in the majors because they are more likely to hit the ball in the majors than Francisco is currently.

Being able to hit in the minors better than someone doesn't mean you will be able to do that in the majors because the majors are a different breed.

Homer Bailey
07-13-2010, 01:44 AM
Is "a poor man's Pablo Sandoval" a good comparison? Basically Sandoval with less contact?

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
07-13-2010, 02:11 AM
Without reading all of the posts in this thread so forgive me if this has been talked about. I have a thought on Fransisco. Ok his OBP may be low if he plays every day in the Majors right now, and he will strike out a lot but, I will take him 10 days out of 10 pinch hitting against a righty over Lance Nix. Why not bring him up to fill that spot. If the front office doesn't think Heiseys developement is being damaged with his lack of PT right now I don't see how they could feel that way about Fransisco. We are in a pennant race right NOW and if I have to see Nix K or hit a high fly ball to right again I think I'm gonna puke. We have parts in the minors right now that can help make this team better NOW, Chapman in the pen, Maloney in the pen, Fransisco off the bench ect. Make the moves and see what happens. I don't think Nix to AAA is going to hurt anyone in the dugouts feelings and I would love to see a shake up after dropping 4 to the Phills. Maybe a couple moves is what we need to wake up the bats.

zjr1717
07-13-2010, 03:39 AM
I was ok until this sentence.

Seems to be that strike zone judgment is very important, but you also have to produce.

In Francisco, I see a guy who produces but needs to improve his strike zone judgment.

Most of the other guys, well, they don't produce nearly as much. They may walk more, they may have better strike zone judgment. But where is the production?

I'm not saying a guy who has little going for him other than a good walk rate is more valuable than Francisco. But guys who do have patience, as long as there is some danger of pitching them in the zone, tend to at least have some role at the major league level.

Look at a guy like Ryan Hanigan, besides his fielding prowess, his minor league stats have little to recommend to him other than an ability to work a walk. There were many on this board (I've lurked on these parts quite a while), and in other places, such as Baseball Prospectus, who said that Hanigan was a career minor leaguer because no pitcher would have reason to not pound the zone against him because he has no power. Sure the guy has little power, but hes shown at the major league level to this point that his judgement translates, and that when challenged, he can often come away with solid contact.

Now Francisco is definitely a guy with potential to be a more valuable player than Ryan Hanigan. But can he really achieve that potential? Francisco has a mighty high mountain to clime to reach his celing, or anything close to it, as a player. His poor defense surely holds him back, this will subtract from his value as a hitter. And what value as a hitter can he have, when he cant take a walk, very few hitters have have become big time contributors when terribly impatient. I can only think of one, Vlad.

Sure guy's can improve their plate discipline, Jay Bruce is a good example of someone who has improved his plate discipline upon coming to the majors. He's improved on his minor league walks rates by about 2%. But I don't have faith in guys to radically change what they are as hitters. Francisco is a hacker, he will most likely always be a hacker, but the question is to what degree.

I just think that Francisco isn't the type of player the Reds should be relying on to produce in the future. I also think he's the kind of player that the Reds should sell high on, because if a team is willing to ignore his glaring deficiencies and focus on his shining talents, then the Reds should take advantage of that.

GOYA
07-13-2010, 04:33 AM
Look at a guy like Ryan Hanigan, besides his fielding prowess, his minor league stats have little to recommend to him other than an ability to work a walk.

Hanigan was hitting .324 at AAA when he was called up.

Kingspoint
07-13-2010, 04:44 AM
Never let facts get in the way of a good argument.

zjr1717
07-13-2010, 04:49 AM
Hanigan was hitting .324 at AAA when he was called up.

Sure he did, in 300 at bats. Across the minors he hit 294, and his 371 SLG% was less than his 382 OBP%. I'm not denying that Ryan has some skill in making contact, but guys who have a higher OBP than their SLG are definitely oddities, and he has continued this oddness at the major league level. Sure he had contact ability, but what made him at all interesting as a minor leaguer was his ability to walk. Take away the high walk rate, and Hanigan would be sitting back in Massachusetts right now doing whatever.

Now many guys with Hanigans high walk rate, high contact rate, zero power skillset don't translate at the major league level, though it helps that he plays the position with the least demand for offense, and that he's excellent defensively.

But this threads about Juan Francisco, and his merits as a major leaguer in the future, not Ryan Hanigan and his curious skillset.

Kc61
07-28-2010, 11:57 AM
As of today he is at .286/.327/.573/.900.

In 248 official at bats JF has 15 homers and 48 RBI.

And this is after a terrible start and a month's injury absence.

Homer Bailey
07-28-2010, 01:23 PM
OPS vs. RHP is over 1.000. I can't wait until September call-ups.

Sea Ray
07-28-2010, 01:51 PM
Sure he did, in 300 at bats. Across the minors he hit 294, and his 371 SLG% was less than his 382 OBP%. I'm not denying that Ryan has some skill in making contact, but guys who have a higher OBP than their SLG are definitely oddities, and he has continued this oddness at the major league level. Sure he had contact ability, but what made him at all interesting as a minor leaguer was his ability to walk. Take away the high walk rate, and Hanigan would be sitting back in Massachusetts right now doing whatever.

Now many guys with Hanigans high walk rate, high contact rate, zero power skillset don't translate at the major league level, though it helps that he plays the position with the least demand for offense, and that he's excellent defensively.

But this threads about Juan Francisco, and his merits as a major leaguer in the future, not Ryan Hanigan and his curious skillset.

A good defensive catcher that hits .300 has a place on a 25 man roster regardless of his slugging percentage

reds44
07-28-2010, 04:41 PM
OPS vs. RHP is over 1.000. I can't wait until September call-ups.
He has the potential to be a terror off the bench.

Mario-Rijo
07-28-2010, 05:38 PM
A good defensive catcher that hits .300 has a place on a 25 man roster regardless of his slugging percentage

True but generally speaking BA drops from the minors to majors. Guys hitting .294 are probably a .270-.275 hitter in the bigs.

GOYA
07-28-2010, 07:39 PM
True but generally speaking BA drops from the minors to majors. Guys hitting .294 are probably a .270-.275 hitter in the bigs.

What about guys that are hitting .342 for May, June and July?

powersackers
07-28-2010, 08:26 PM
What about guys that are hitting .342 for May, June and July?

Does he do things like shorten his swing w/ 2 strikes? Does he take the outside breaking balls to left field? Does he recognize breaking balls? Has anyone watched him that can comment? I assume AAA pitchers aren't just grooving him fastballs. I know MLB pitchers won't, at least not after they travel 400 feet.

GOYA
07-28-2010, 08:37 PM
Cisco is a free swinging slugger who hits for avg. as well. He's going to K a lot and not walk a lot. He's also going to hit a lot. He does go opposite field. And he can hit them out to the opposite field too. His plate discipline is slowly, constantly, showing improvement.

And no, AAA pitchers are not grooving heaters. They wouldn't be AAA pitchers long if they did.

dougdirt
07-28-2010, 08:46 PM
Does he do things like shorten his swing w/ 2 strikes? Does he take the outside breaking balls to left field? Does he recognize breaking balls? Has anyone watched him that can comment? I assume AAA pitchers aren't just grooving him fastballs. I know MLB pitchers won't, at least not after they travel 400 feet.

I want to echo some of what GOYA said. Francisco can hit offspeed pitches and he can absolutely go the other way with legit power. He hit a double last night to the opposite field warning track on a line like it was nothing. I even think that his plate discipline is improving quite a bit. I still think someone needs to convince him that walks aren't bad. It seems that when he gets 3 balls on him he tries everything in his power to not take a free pass. He has some holes in his swing and he isn't going to hit .300 in the majors with his plate discipline. I do think he is getting close to the point where he could start to walk at a rate that would be acceptable though. He is getting deeper and deeper into counts than he ever has before. Laying off of close pitches earlier in the counts.

Joseph
07-28-2010, 09:07 PM
Just jumping into the conversation here, but is he better as a trading chip or something we should be grooming for our own use?

dougdirt
07-28-2010, 09:13 PM
Just jumping into the conversation here, but is he better as a trading chip or something we should be grooming for our own use?

I know that in the past the Rockies were absolutely enamored with him. If that holds true, I would see what I could pry away from them. With that said, I think the Reds are pretty enamored with him themselves and I certainly get it. He does things that you just can't teach. His arm is special. His power is special.

camisadelgolf
07-28-2010, 09:17 PM
Just jumping into the conversation here, but is he better as a trading chip or something we should be grooming for our own use?
Definitely as a trading chip imo. He's a liability in the field, and an American League team would do well to use him as a platoon DH.

reds44
07-28-2010, 09:22 PM
Definitely as a trading chip imo. He's a liability in the field, and an American League team would do well to use him as a platoon DH.
He's a liabality at 3rd base, but there's no doubt his bat has the potential to stick in LF.

camisadelgolf
07-28-2010, 09:23 PM
He's a liabality at 3rd base, but there's no doubt his bat has the potential to stick in LF.
From what I've seen of him, he's a liability in left field, too.

Benihana
07-28-2010, 09:47 PM
Been saying this for three years, and unfortunately it's probably too late now, but with his cannon arm, body type, and lack of a position, he would've made a hell of a convert to catcher.

Assuming he's not traded in the next few days, I'd bring him up and make him the go-to LH pinch-hitter.

GOYA
07-28-2010, 11:13 PM
It seems that when he gets 3 balls on him he tries everything in his power to not take a free pass.

Yep, I see the same thing. He wants to HIT the ball. It's like a walk just pisses him off.

reds44
07-28-2010, 11:16 PM
Yep, I see the same thing. He wants to HIT the ball. It's like a walk just pisses him off.
Dusty's type of player.

11larkin11
07-29-2010, 12:25 AM
Dusty's type of player.

Reds have 2nd best OBP in NL. Whatever Dusty preaches, it seems to work.

malcontent
07-29-2010, 02:12 PM
Yep, I see the same thing. He wants to HIT the ball. It's like a walk just pisses him off.
lol

nemesis
07-29-2010, 05:39 PM
He has put up the most consistent numbers in the minors of any Reds prospect in the last 3 and a half years. He can roll out of bed and hit .270 and SLG .500. There has to come a point and time where you just have to believe that given the chance to do it here in Cincinnati, he would.

Maybe some severe quality time with Rolen would help him at 3B moving toward 2013. As far as LF goes, if we can live with Gomes out there, we can live with Francisco as a equal defender with a plus plus arm. Maybe he won't go side to side on a ball and maybe still can be taught to charge one.

If Francisco can play a eh LF, playing him at 3B when Rolen is taking days of or DL'd and filling in at 1B for Votto a few times a year, he could get around 350, 400 AB's and probably hit around 25 HR's and drive in 70 from the 7 spot in the line up.

Conceivably the Line Up vs RHP could look like this heading into next year...

2B Phillips
SS Cozart
1B Votto
3B Rolen
RF Bruce
CF Stubbs
LF Francisco
C Hanigan

Vs LHP

2B Phillips
SS Cozart
1B Votto
3B Rolen
CF Stubbs
RF Bruce
LF Heisey
C Hanigan

Even a sunday special wouldn't be so bad...

CF Dickerson
SS Cozart
1B Votto
2B Phillips
RF Bruce
LF Heisey
3B Francisco
C Miller

I can live with that kinda line up shuffling.

That still leaves 1B/LF Alonso, UT Frazier, OF Perez, OF Sappelt, 1B/OF Dorn, IF Sutton, IF Valakia and C Mesoraco in AAA as reinforcements. Still a deep AAA team.

But back to the original point. Francisco has nothing left to prove at AAA.

In 344 AB's in AAA his #'s are...

21 HR (1 every 16.4 AB's) 70 RBI's in 75 games, 25 2B's, 4 3B's (50 XBH out of 105 Hits in 75 games. A sustainable 19.1% LD% and a very sustainable .315 BABIP.

His slash in those 344 BA's is a .305 BA - .338/.584/.922 - 17 BB - 80 K's - A Power ISO of .145 - Surprisingly low, meaning, the kid's numbers are way more than HR fulled.

GOYA
07-29-2010, 06:06 PM
Maybe some severe quality time with Rolen would help him at 3B moving toward 2013. As far as LF goes, if we can live with Gomes out there, we can live with Francisco as a equal defender with a plus plus arm. Maybe he won't go side to side on a ball and maybe still can be taught to charge one.

Cisco doesn't need to be taught to charge balls. He's very aggressive on balls he can reach. His problem is getting the ball in the glove and sometimes making the transfer to his throwing hand. He'll often bobble and then still get someone out because he recovers and uses that cannon of an arm he has.

Mario-Rijo
07-29-2010, 06:12 PM
He has put up the most consistent numbers in the minors of any Reds prospect in the last 3 and a half years. He can roll out of bed and hit .270 and SLG .500. There has to come a point and time where you just have to believe that given the chance to do it here in Cincinnati, he would.

There has to come a time where you also consider that he might not be a major leaguer at all. A fine example...

Juan Francisco career minor league #'s - .282/.315/.494

Mystery 3B career minor league #'s - .287/.345/.521

Mystery 3B career major league #'s - .179/.271/.299

Just because you can hit in the minors doesn't mean it translates to the bigs.

mdccclxix
07-29-2010, 07:30 PM
His slash in those 344 BA's is a .305 BA - .338/.584/.922 - 17 BB - 80 K's - A Power ISO of .145 - Surprisingly low, meaning, the kid's numbers are way more than HR fulled.

What is power ISO? His ISO (SLG-AVG) is .240 by my calculation.

Kc61
07-29-2010, 07:51 PM
There has to come a time where you also consider that he might not be a major leaguer at all. A fine example...

Juan Francisco career minor league #'s - .282/.315/.494

Mystery 3B career minor league #'s - .287/.345/.521

Mystery 3B career major league #'s - .179/.271/.299

Just because you can hit in the minors doesn't mean it translates to the bigs.


There are many, many differences between Francisco and Brandon Larson that the comparison is not meaningful IMO. There is no basis for comparison.

The primary difference is that JF is demolishing AAA pitching at age 23. At the same age, Larson was just entering AA ball.

Larson entered AAA at 24, but his first full season at Louisville was at age 25. And his OPS in 2001 at age 25 was .727 at AAA, not the .900 plus that Francisco is putting up.

Larson did dominate at AAA at age 26-27, but that tells us little. Lots of career minor leaguers put up good AAA numbers as mature players.

JF's big problem, a lack of walks, didn't plague Larson to the same extent. In other words, Larson had entirely different hitting issues - his problem was not a history of bad plate discipline.

The two are not comparable.

fearofpopvol1
07-29-2010, 07:53 PM
I don't know exactly how good Alonso's defense is in LF, but I would much rather count on Alonso starting LF over Francisco. Especially as Alonso's power comes back.

corkedbat
07-29-2010, 08:40 PM
My fear (offensively) where JF is concerned, would be his agressiveness at the plate. I just worry that major league pitching will be able to get him out on a consistent basis without throwing him actual strikes.

Defensively, I just don't see him as an everyday 3B and I believe the Reds agree or he would have already been up caddying for Rolen. Likewise, considering the production issues in the Reds OF, I would think that he would be getting a steady diet of starts there in L'Ville if the Reds thought he had a shot at being even a passable OFer4.

I hope I'm wrong, that Juan can hit like he currently is for the Bats at the next level and that he can develop enough defensively to give the Reds something close to league-average perormance at either 3B or LF.

As it stands now, I think the Reds best bet would to include Francisco in a deal to an AL team for a piece at a position of need. If the Reds were in the AL, I believe he and Alonso would already be vying for the everyday DH spot.

nemesis
07-30-2010, 03:20 PM
What is power ISO? His ISO (SLG-AVG) is .240 by my calculation.

BA on XBH only.

Homer Bailey
07-30-2010, 03:29 PM
Nevermind

REDblooded
07-30-2010, 11:52 PM
Really having a difficult time understanding why there wasn't one single mention of Juan Francisco in today's Hot Sheet...

The top batter on today's hot sheet was Gerald Laird... Here's his line:
.520/.600/.920 (13-for-25), 7 R, 2 2B, 3 HR, 6 RBIs, 5 BB, 4 SO

Juan's for the week?
4 HR's, 13 rbi, 10/21 .476 ba, and 8 r's...

Texas Pete
07-31-2010, 05:02 AM
Help a semi-n00b out. Is Francisco major league ready? If not, how far away do y'all think he is?

mth123
07-31-2010, 11:17 AM
Help a semi-n00b out. Is Francisco major league ready? If not, how far away do y'all think he is?

Its a heck of a question Tex. Francisco is easily the most confounding player in the organization IMO. He is very productive but he does it in a manner that many doubt will be able to continue as he goes up the ladder, yet he continues to hit whereever he goes. The only way we'll know about Francisco IMO is to give him a try. Anything could happen and he could be a power plant or a quick fizzle, but I'm guessing we'll never see enough in AAA to be able to predict much. The question is; do you gamble he'll come through and expose him and hurt his value if he doesn't or do you deal him for something with more certainty but less upside? Personally, I'd make a deal, but if the Reds keep him, I think its time for a move to the majors.

dougdirt
07-31-2010, 01:32 PM
Help a semi-n00b out. Is Francisco major league ready? If not, how far away do y'all think he is?

No one with his current K/BB rate (his rate in AAA) in the majors has ever been able to put together a solid career. Until he gets his better in line, its not very likely that he will be 'ready'. With that said, I think he could be a few adjustments away from being there and it honestly is one of those things where it might just click one day and he will be fine from that day forward.

Mario-Rijo
07-31-2010, 07:19 PM
There are many, many differences between Francisco and Brandon Larson that the comparison is not meaningful IMO. There is no basis for comparison.

The primary difference is that JF is demolishing AAA pitching at age 23. At the same age, Larson was just entering AA ball.

Larson entered AAA at 24, but his first full season at Louisville was at age 25. And his OPS in 2001 at age 25 was .727 at AAA, not the .900 plus that Francisco is putting up.

Larson did dominate at AAA at age 26-27, but that tells us little. Lots of career minor leaguers put up good AAA numbers as mature players.

JF's big problem, a lack of walks, didn't plague Larson to the same extent. In other words, Larson had entirely different hitting issues - his problem was not a history of bad plate discipline.

The two are not comparable.

The 2 are comparable they can both hit the cover off the ball in the minors, but it didn't translate for Brandon and unless something changes it isn't gonna translate for Juan either. Sure different reasons very likely same end result.

Scrap Irony
08-01-2010, 10:07 PM
No one with his current K/BB rate (his rate in AAA) in the majors has ever been able to put together a solid career. Until he gets his better in line, its not very likely that he will be 'ready'. With that said, I think he could be a few adjustments away from being there and it honestly is one of those things where it might just click one day and he will be fine from that day forward.

What doug means in his first statement is that no one has had success in the majors with his K/BB rate. doug (nor anyone else) hasn't done the research for the minor leagues, so that statement isn't quite as damning as it might sound.

And, as to his second assertion, I agree wholeheartedly. Francisco is an adjustment or two away from being a productive major league hitter. He's seeing more and more pitches in Louisville and, mostly, crushing a pitch or two a game. (He's missed at least ten homers by inches this season at home. No joke.)

Defensively, Francisco has a phenomenal arm-- both accurate and strong. His speed is non-existent and his pear-shaped body doesn't help much. (He could perhaps be average or just below that if he lost some weight, ate right, and got in good shape. As is, he looks like an accountant playing ball.)

dougdirt
08-02-2010, 04:13 AM
What doug means in his first statement is that no one has had success in the majors with his K/BB rate. doug (nor anyone else) hasn't done the research for the minor leagues, so that statement isn't quite as damning as it might sound.
What isn't brought up here is that most everyone has a worse K/BB in the majors than in the minors. Right now, Francisco probably needs to be about twice as good as he currently is in terms of drawing walks compared to strikeouts. You just don't see guys do that.

REDblooded
08-08-2010, 05:17 PM
Just continues to hit...