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RedLegSuperStar
07-09-2010, 01:08 PM
Cliff Lee won't be a Red.. And you can't tease us with one ace and not go after another. Walt has a connection with Haren.. What does everyone think?

CarolinaRedleg
07-09-2010, 01:12 PM
Might take more to land Haren, since he's not a rental. Definitely worth kicking the tires.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 01:19 PM
Do you think having an interim GM might impede deadline deals? Probably not, but what does anyone know about the DBacks current GM?

BRM
07-09-2010, 01:21 PM
The Snakes have stated they have to be "blown away" by any offer for them to consider trading Haren.

westofyou
07-09-2010, 01:22 PM
Do you think having an interim GM might impede deadline deals? Probably not, but what does anyone know about the DBacks current GM?

He was a buddy of the outgoing GM, expect him tp be more of the Kullman type, dealing FA's to be, he's not team building for the future alone.

RedsManRick
07-09-2010, 01:24 PM
I'd be happy to get Haren, but their front office situation suggests that they aren't going to make any big moves. I'd be very surprised if Haren (or Drew) were dealt during the season.

Raisor
07-09-2010, 01:25 PM
Don't forget, if the Reds trade for him, he can demand a trade in the offseason.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 01:29 PM
It's Volquez or bust I guess. Which doesn't bode well considering his date for return keeps getting moved back.

Is it worth it to chase after 3/4 types? Like Dempster/Lilly/Lohse? Is it worth it if Volquez can't return this season?

mdccclxix
07-09-2010, 01:41 PM
It's Volquez or bust I guess. Which doesn't bode well considering his date for return keeps getting moved back.

Is it worth it to chase after 3/4 types? Like Dempster/Lilly/Lohse? Is it worth it if Volquez can't return this season?

Volquez or bust, indeed. I'm looking forward to it, he's an awesome pitcher.

I'd be interested in Vasquez in name only. I don't know the details.

BRM
07-09-2010, 01:45 PM
It's Volquez or bust I guess. Which doesn't bode well considering his date for return keeps getting moved back.

Is it worth it to chase after 3/4 types? Like Dempster/Lilly/Lohse? Is it worth it if Volquez can't return this season?

I am honestly not counting on anything from Volquez this year. Anything he delivers will be gravy.

TheNext44
07-09-2010, 01:53 PM
He was a buddy of the outgoing GM, expect him tp be more of the Kullman type, dealing FA's to be, he's not team building for the future alone.

Didn't Kuhlman pretty much clean house? Pretty much trading every player that could bring a decent return that was not in the Reds future? Problem was, there weren't that many players on the Reds at that time who could bring a decent return. Although he did pretty well with the ones he did trade.

I don't buy this notion that they will only trade immediate free agents. When an owner fires a GM and manager the same day, it almost always is sign that he wants to clean house, blow his team up, convert any player who won't be on the team three years from now into prospects.

Maybe Haren won't be traded, but I think it's obvious he should. If two months of Lee can get a Montero plus, then think what 1.5 years of Haren can bring. I know he can demand a trade if traded, but that just means buying that out by picking up an option or giving a bonus of some sort the day the trade his made.

If I'm a D-Back fan, I hope they trade Haren in this market.

TheNext44
07-09-2010, 01:58 PM
It's Volquez or bust I guess. Which doesn't bode well considering his date for return keeps getting moved back.

Is it worth it to chase after 3/4 types? Like Dempster/Lilly/Lohse? Is it worth it if Volquez can't return this season?

Lilly aint a 3-4 type. He's not in Lee's league, but he's a solid #1 or 2. He'd be a solid upgrade over most of the Reds starters. Not sure the Cubs would trade him within the division, but they do look to blow their team up.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 01:58 PM
Lilly aint a 3-4 type. He's not in Lee's league, but he's a solid #1 or 2. He'd be a solid upgrade over most of the Reds starters. Not sure the Cubs would trade him within the division, but they do look to blow their team up.

Lilly's a 3. IMO.

Eric_the_Red
07-09-2010, 02:06 PM
Lilly's a 3. IMO.


No way. At worst he is a 2 on a good team (or at least a team not names the Yankees or Red Sox and their rediciluous rotations). Lilly has a history of being very underrated, but the stats are there. He doesn't let a lot of guys on base, which I think is kind of the object of the position. He isn't flashy, but he gets the job done.

If we are assuming that Lee is gone, then I would want Haren next, and then either Lilly or Oswalt.

RedLegSuperStar
07-09-2010, 02:11 PM
What needs would the D'Backs have? Rotation? Corner Infielder? Of?

RedLegSuperStar
07-09-2010, 02:14 PM
Keep in mind Harang, Volquez, and Bailey are on the DL.. How much faith do we have in at least 2 of the 3?

Dan
07-09-2010, 02:18 PM
IF the Reds pick up Ted Lilly (would the Cubs trade within the division?), the rotation looks like this:

Cueto (he has quietly become the ace)
Arroyo (solid #2)
Lilly (probably a 2.5-3 starter)
Harang
Leake/Bailey/Wood/Maloney/Volquez

I could deal with that.

BRM
07-09-2010, 02:20 PM
Keep in mind Harang, Volquez, and Bailey are on the DL.. How much faith do we have in at least 2 of the 3?

Very little.

TheNext44
07-09-2010, 02:26 PM
Lilly's a 3. IMO.

123 ERA+ over the last 4 years. 200 innings nearly every year. Plus he's s lefty.

He's a #1-2 IMO.

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2010, 02:33 PM
Lilly is an interesting guy to go after. But the big question is, do the Cubs want to resign him? They have some money coming off the books this year.

If they are willing to trade him, what would it take to land him? Surely it would be a lot less than Lee.

Would the Cubs won't Alonso? Is Alonso too much? All signs report to the fact that Lee will not be returning to the Cubs...so Alonso would make a lot of sense for the Cubs as Alonso could probably start there next year. I don't know why though, Alonso for Lilly just doesn't seem as sexy.

TheNext44
07-09-2010, 02:36 PM
Thing about Lily is that the Reds could sign him to an extension if they wanted to. Not sure they want to, but he wouldn't necessarily be just a rental.

Really hard to guess what the Cubs would want for him. Are they going to blow up thi team or just dump free agents to be? That affects the calculus mightily.

Hoosier Red
07-09-2010, 02:37 PM
As far as trading within the division goes; I wonder if it's influenced by the fact they'd be trading with a team trying to hold off the Cardinals.

I don't know that the organizations hold any particular animosity towards St. Louis but the Cubs fans hate St. Louis and I remember some pretty big kerfuffles early in the decade when Houston and St. Louis were both good.

Didn't St.Louis throw a fit over Houston having a NL Central champion banner when they tied and Houston got the wild card matchup in the playoffs?

savafan
07-09-2010, 02:47 PM
Lilly's velocity has been decreasing. I'd stay away.

Ghosts of 1990
07-09-2010, 03:02 PM
Keep in mind Harang, Volquez, and Bailey are on the DL.. How much faith do we have in at least 2 of the 3?

Give me Bailey, and Volquez. Trade Harang for peanuts or stick him in the pen in an owings type role.

I can tell you right now if Bailey and Volquez are healthy they're a shot in the arm to any team chasing the pennant. We've seen it before. IF they're healthy.

reds44
07-09-2010, 03:04 PM
I think Lilly pitching in GABP is a disaster waiting to happen. His mid 80's fastball just wouldn't mix with here. I could see it being Eric Milton Part II.

The Reds are really going to need Volquez to pitch well.

RichRed
07-09-2010, 03:05 PM
Really hard to guess what the Cubs would want for him. Are they going to blow up thi team or just dump free agents to be? That affects the calculus mightily.

From SI, via the Chicago Tribune:


06:57 AM ET 07.09 | Several baseball sources have confirmed to us that the Cubs are ramping up their efforts in the trade market to start clearing the books of cumbersome salaries. In addition, it is expected that the team's ownership will address the media soon to assess the club's direction, especially if the team continues to struggle before the trading deadline.

Chicago Tribune

LoganBuck
07-09-2010, 03:05 PM
Can we change this thread title to "Cliff Lee off the table, now what?"

What would it take to pry loose Oswalt, Haren, or Greinke? Especially now that the price for Lee seems steep, for a rental.

Would Ryan Dempster be a guy to look at? He is signed for next year, and is a #2-3 type.

RichRed
07-09-2010, 03:07 PM
If Ted Lilly weren't 34, I would say we should go after him, if for no other reason than his full name is Theodore Roosevelt Lilly.

Ghosts of 1990
07-09-2010, 03:10 PM
From SI, via the Chicago Tribune:

I think Chi Tribune might be talking about:


Buster_ESPN Cubs are overseeing a search for Kosuke Fukudome deal, a way to move the outfielder and the $20 m. still owed to him.


http://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/18136498565

paulrichjr
07-09-2010, 03:13 PM
Don't forget, if the Reds trade for him, he can demand a trade in the offseason.

I might be wrong but I think that went away with the latest collective agreement.

Raisor
07-09-2010, 03:14 PM
I might be wrong but I think that went away with the latest collective agreement.

That would be good news for the clubs.

savafan
07-09-2010, 03:24 PM
Oswalt Would Not Accept Trade To White Sox, Tigers

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/07/oswalt-would-not-accept-trade-to-white-sox-tigers.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

OesterPoster
07-09-2010, 03:29 PM
Not sure if it matters, but Bryan Price's time in Arizona coincided with Haren's time there, correct?

dougdirt
07-09-2010, 03:45 PM
Not Danny Haren, but potential pitcher.... any interest in Javier Vazquez now that the Yankees don't have a spot for him in the rotation?

CarolinaRedleg
07-09-2010, 03:45 PM
Not sure if it matters, but Bryan Price's time in Arizona coincided with Haren's time there, correct?

Haren's one full season under Price's tutelage was 2008

YEAR TEAM W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR HB BB SO AVG WHIP
2008 ARI 16 8 3.33 33 33 1 1 0 0 216.0 204 86 80 19 6 40 206 .247 1.13

Sorry my formatting is for crap, but you get a feel for the numbers

reds44
07-09-2010, 03:46 PM
Not Danny Haren, but potential pitcher.... any interest in Javier Vazquez now that the Yankees don't have a spot for him in the rotation?
No. Get Vazquez as far away from big games as possible.

OnBaseMachine
07-09-2010, 03:48 PM
Not Danny Haren, but potential pitcher.... any interest in Javier Vazquez now that the Yankees don't have a spot for him in the rotation?

Absolutely. I'm a huge fan of Vazquez. If he can be had for a reasonable price I'd go after him. Oswalt/Haren are my top two choices as Plan B but Vazquez would be a very solid fallback option, IMO.

LoganBuck
07-09-2010, 03:50 PM
Not Danny Haren, but potential pitcher.... any interest in Javier Vazquez now that the Yankees don't have a spot for him in the rotation?

I would rather pursue Ryan Dempster. But the better answer is probably to stand pat if you can't get Greinke, Haren, or Oswalt. Because the upgrade likely won't be worth the price.

OnBaseMachine
07-09-2010, 03:57 PM
The Marlins are reportedly shopping Ricky Nolasco. He's having a down season but he's only 27 years old and has good stuff.

Playadlc
07-09-2010, 04:05 PM
The Marlins are reportedly shopping Ricky Nolasco. He's having a down season but he's only 27 years old and has good stuff.

I'd be all over Nolasco. In the 2nd half of ’08, he struckout ninety-eight hitters and only issued 12 walks (3.29 era)…2nd half of '09, 105 Ks to 23 walks (4.29 era)...

2nd half monster. Go get him.

dougdirt
07-09-2010, 04:09 PM
The Marlins are reportedly shopping Ricky Nolasco. He's having a down season but he's only 27 years old and has good stuff.

Get it done.

RedsManRick
07-09-2010, 04:11 PM
I'd be all over Nolasco. In the 2nd half of 08, he struckout ninety-eight hitters and only issued 12 walks (3.29 era)2nd half of '09, 105 Ks to 23 walks (4.29 era)...

2nd half monster. Go get him.

Agree 100%. His ERA is inflated this year thanks to an unlucky HR/FB rate. He's a solid 4.00-4.25 ERA guy who can easily slot in for Harang or Arroyo in 2011 and will be under control for 2 more years.

Eric_the_Red
07-09-2010, 04:15 PM
I'd be all for Nolasco as well. I'm not sure he is a name that casual fans would embrace, but I think he is poised to breakout.

bucksfan2
07-09-2010, 04:30 PM
Agree 100%. His ERA is inflated this year thanks to an unlucky HR/FB rate. He's a solid 4.00-4.25 ERA guy who can easily slot in for Harang or Arroyo in 2011 and will be under control for 2 more years.

Don't really understand how a pitcher can have an unlucky HR/FB rate. Seems like HR's are more a result of bad pitches more than luck. And isn't Florida a pretty pitcher friendly ball park?

I don't know if a solid 4.00-4.25 ERA guy does much for me right now. It wouldn't exactly be a bad pick up over the off season but it would be a pretty lackluster one at the deadline. Also a bad HR/FB rate would scare me when pitching at GABP.

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2010, 04:33 PM
I think Lilly pitching in GABP is a disaster waiting to happen. His mid 80's fastball just wouldn't mix with here. I could see it being Eric Milton Part II.

The Reds are really going to need Volquez to pitch well.

Is Wrigley a pitcher friendly park where he's pitched the last 4 years?

Sea Ray
07-09-2010, 04:36 PM
The Reds are not in a position where they can add payroll commitments such as Haren. They'll be hardpressed as it is to bring back Arroyo next year while doing raises for Bruce, Phillips and Votto. The only way they can add Haren is if they dump Arroyo and is that really a net gain? They also will need a new catcher and SS next yr

*BaseClogger*
07-09-2010, 04:37 PM
Nolasco reminds me of Ian Snell.

LoganBuck has the right idea--forget Ted Lilly and his 32.4% groundballs; the Reds should pursue pitchers like Ryan Dempster, who has recorded 49.1% groundballs. However, a clause in his contract should keep Jocketty away:


10:$12.5M, 11:$13.5M, 12:$14M PLAYER OPTION

I wouldn't mind Carmona if we simply need a live arm, but I think the best decision the Reds can make is to stand pat...

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2010, 04:40 PM
The Reds are not in a position where they can add payroll commitments such as Haren. They'll be hardpressed as it is to bring back Arroyo next year while doing raises for Bruce, Phillips and Votto. The only way they can add Haren is if they dump Arroyo and is that really a net gain? They also will need a new catcher and SS next yr

Sure they could. The only real issue would be this year, which Cast would have to "eat" some money. Next year, Harang/Arroyo come off the books and there'd be no reason to pick up their options. Coco comes off the books after next season.

TheNext44
07-09-2010, 05:25 PM
Sure they could. The only real issue would be this year, which Cast would have to "eat" some money. Next year, Harang/Arroyo come off the books and there'd be no reason to pick up their options. Coco comes off the books after next season.

As of right now, with no bump in payroll, the Reds are positioned to be able to add $10-15M next season.

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2010, 05:52 PM
As of right now, with no bump in payroll, the Reds are positioned to be able to add $10-15M next season.

Right, which means they could afford Haren.

nemesis
07-09-2010, 05:59 PM
I dunno, I just would prefer Haren over Lee. Some gut feeling. Just seems like a great fit here.


Heisey, Alonso and Bailey would be a solid return on him and not hurt the team long term. They would still have Frazier for LF, Mesaraco for C, Francisco for 3B, Cozart for SS and Wood for the rotation. Plus you have him at a affordable price for 2 more years.

Brutus
07-09-2010, 06:18 PM
Nolasco reminds me of Ian Snell.

LoganBuck has the right idea--forget Ted Lilly and his 32.4% groundballs; the Reds should pursue pitchers like Ryan Dempster, who has recorded 49.1% groundballs. However, a clause in his contract should keep Jocketty away:


10:$12.5M, 11:$13.5M, 12:$14M PLAYER OPTION

I wouldn't mind Carmona if we simply need a live arm, but I think the best decision the Reds can make is to stand pat...

Nolasco has literally only half the career walk rate (2.11 per nine) of Snell (4.17).

So if you mean Ian Snell minus the overwhelming command issues...

:beerme:

RedLegSuperStar
07-09-2010, 06:25 PM
back to option 2 it looks like

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 06:27 PM
back to option 2 it looks like

What is option 2?

RedLegSuperStar
07-09-2010, 06:31 PM
What is option 2?

Bozo the clown..

really?

savafan
07-09-2010, 06:33 PM
Oswalt > Haren

In my opinion. Not to mention, after all the years he dominated Reds lineups, it'd be sweet to have him come here and take the team to the post season.

RedEye
07-09-2010, 06:36 PM
The Reds are not in a position where they can add payroll commitments such as Haren. They'll be hardpressed as it is to bring back Arroyo next year while doing raises for Bruce, Phillips and Votto. The only way they can add Haren is if they dump Arroyo and is that really a net gain? They also will need a new catcher and SS next yr

Yes, it is a net gain. I like Bronson, but I would hope Walt dump him in a heartbeat for Haren.

savafan
07-09-2010, 06:40 PM
Yes, it is a net gain. I like Bronson, but I would hope Walt dump him in a heartbeat for Haren.

Bronson has pitched better than Haren all season.

Spitball
07-09-2010, 06:43 PM
Oswalt > Haren

In my opinion. Not to mention, after all the years he dominated Reds lineups, it'd be sweet to have him come here and take the team to the post season.

I know Jake Peavy had warning signs of breaking down, but his story makes me nervous about Oswalt. I'd hate to have a package of former Red prospects haunting them for years after Oswalt is gone.

I'd like to see what it would take to get Joakim Soria from K.C. He is young and cheap, but they may be tempted by an attractive package of prospects. The Reds should be willing to give up a lot for him because he would add a strike throwing, bat missing arm to the end of ball games. He'd deserve to be the closer on the Reds.

*BaseClogger*
07-09-2010, 07:35 PM
Nolasco has literally only half the career walk rate (2.11 per nine) of Snell (4.17).

So if you mean Ian Snell minus the overwhelming command issues...

:beerme:

I don't know what it is about him, but Nolasco just screams Ian Snell to me. Maybe it's the one good season followed by 5s in the ERA column...

The Operator
07-09-2010, 07:35 PM
I'm on board for Roy Oswalt.

Peavy has shown warning signs for a long time with his herky jerky delivery, I'm not convinced that translates over to Roy O. who has never really spent any significant time in the DL if I'm not mistaken.

On top of that, Oswalt is used to pitching in a bandbox and is a Reds killer. Adding him not only helps us by having him pitch for us, but also not AGAINST us. That's a big factor as well.

I'd take him over Haren. Call me crazy but I would.

*BaseClogger*
07-09-2010, 07:36 PM
Even if you consider Oswalt to be a little better than Haren as a baseball player, once you look at their respective contracts I think Haren is the no-brainer choice...

The Operator
07-09-2010, 07:40 PM
Even if you consider Oswalt to be a little better than Haren as a baseball player, once you look at their respective contracts I think Haren is the no-brainer choice...

It might come down to which one can be attained easier.

Or The Reds may stand pat. But I hope they don't. I know I was certainly worried about Cueto going down last night as I heard that play unfold on the radio. I'm just not ready to try and head to the postseason counting on Volquez coming off TJ surgery, Harang being effective, Leake not wearing down, etc.

They have to do something.

PuffyPig
07-09-2010, 07:42 PM
Bronson has pitched better than Haren all season.

Not true.

Bronson has had batter results than Haren this season, but in no way has he pitched better.

Haren has a sub-4 xFIP every year, something Arroyo has NEVER done. In fact, Bronson's xFIP this year is close to 5.

savafan
07-09-2010, 07:49 PM
Not true.

Bronson has had batter results than Haren this season, but in no way has he pitched better.

Haren has a sub-4 xFIP every year, something Arroyo has NEVER done. In fact, Bronson's xFIP this year is close to 5.

I have no idea what xFIP is (Is it the planet that Kevin Spacey came from in that movie?), but looking at ERA, WHIP, quality starts and wins, stats that don't require you to be a mathematician or scientist to figure out, Arroyo has been the better pitcher.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 07:58 PM
Would they white-flag the season if, say, the Reds are down by a game or three by the end of July? Thoughts?

Might they go in the other direction: Rolen/Gomes/Arroyo for prospects? It wouldn't be unheard of. And in many ways, it might be the smarter move, now that the only real difference-maker is off the table.

*BaseClogger*
07-09-2010, 07:59 PM
I have no idea what xFIP is (Is it the planet that Kevin Spacey came from in that movie?), but looking at ERA, WHIP, quality starts and wins, stats that don't require you to be a mathematician or scientist to figure out, Arroyo has been the better pitcher.

Maybe you should just trust the professionals then? :p:

Ghosts of 1990
07-09-2010, 08:05 PM
Would they white-flag the season if, say, the Reds are down by a game or three by the end of July? Thoughts?

Might they go in the other direction: Rolen/Gomes for prospects? It wouldn't be unheard of. And in many ways, it might be the smarter move, now that the only real difference-maker is off the table.

I can be certain, above all else; that Scott Rolen will not be dealt this year to anyone.

dougdirt
07-09-2010, 08:35 PM
I have no idea what xFIP is (Is it the planet that Kevin Spacey came from in that movie?), but looking at ERA, WHIP, quality starts and wins, stats that don't require you to be a mathematician or scientist to figure out, Arroyo has been the better pitcher.

All of those things though have some measure to do with the guys playing behind you as well. Arroyo has had better results, but I believe that a guy who has a 4-1 K/BB rate is going to out perform Arroyo who is at 1.41-1 if you put the same defenses behind them.

BearcatShane
07-09-2010, 09:01 PM
Would they white-flag the season if, say, the Reds are down by a game or three by the end of July? Thoughts?

Might they go in the other direction: Rolen/Gomes/Arroyo for prospects? It wouldn't be unheard of. And in many ways, it might be the smarter move, now that the only real difference-maker is off the table.

I HIGHLY doubt they would do this if the Reds were within 3 games.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 09:04 PM
I HIGHLY doubt they would do this if the Reds were within 3 games.

Not sure how smart it would be to stand pat. Reds need to shed payroll in the offseason and need more pitching.

OnBaseMachine
07-09-2010, 09:11 PM
Dan Haren, who would leap just under Cliff Lee as the most coveted pitcher on the market, is available, according to a major league source. The source, whose team has talked to the Diamondbacks, said his team was told that "Everybody is available except Justin Upton."


http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/07/09/source-diamondbacks-ready-to-listen-on-dan-haren-offers/

TheNext44
07-09-2010, 09:17 PM
Not true.

Bronson has had batter results than Haren this season, but in no way has he pitched better.

Haren has a sub-4 xFIP every year, something Arroyo has NEVER done. In fact, Bronson's xFIP this year is close to 5.

Haren is a better pitcher than Arroyo, no doubt, and he's probably pitched better this season than Arroy, even though Haran has had some ugly multiple homer games this season.

But I would never use Arroyo's xFIP or FIP to judge him. He's one of the rare pitchers, like Leake, that have so much movement on their pitches and get so many double plays that judging him just on K's BB's and HR's just isn't fair. He has consistanly outperformed his DIPS stats for the last 5 years. I think it's time to say that he will continue to do so for awhile.

Still think Haren will pitch better going forward, however.

guttle11
07-09-2010, 09:19 PM
Would they white-flag the season if, say, the Reds are down by a game or three by the end of July? Thoughts?

Might they go in the other direction: Rolen/Gomes/Arroyo for prospects? It wouldn't be unheard of. And in many ways, it might be the smarter move, now that the only real difference-maker is off the table.

Wouldn't be worth the lost revenue and respect with fans.

I don't envy Walt and Co. over the next few weeks. Not only will every thing they do/don't do be scrutinized in the moment, but the desperate fan base and the media wanting to pique eyeballs and ears will be second, third, and tenth guessing it from now until the games end. The way the season has unfolded to date, just being good won't be good enough for the masses anymore.

alloverjr
07-09-2010, 09:20 PM
http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/07/09/source-diamondbacks-ready-to-listen-on-dan-haren-offers/

I want Drew. Haren as a throw in. :)

TheNext44
07-09-2010, 09:24 PM
Not sure how smart it would be to stand pat. Reds need to shed payroll in the offseason and need more pitching.

The Reds will have $10-15M to spend next off season if they stand pat and don't up the payroll. Odds are that the payroll will increase, but even if it doesn't the Reds do not need to shed payroll in order to get the pitching that they will need in the off-season.

savafan
07-09-2010, 09:25 PM
All of those things though have some measure to do with the guys playing behind you as well. Arroyo has had better results, but I believe that a guy who has a 4-1 K/BB rate is going to out perform Arroyo who is at 1.41-1 if you put the same defenses behind them.

Results are what matter though. I can't look at stats and say one guy's done better theoretically, he's just been unlucky. What happens ON the field has more merit than what could happen on paper.

Will M
07-09-2010, 09:26 PM
Back up the truck for Haren & Drew. Helps in 2010, 2011 & 2012.

backbencher
07-09-2010, 09:28 PM
Would they white-flag the season if, say, the Reds are down by a game or three by the end of July? Thoughts?

Might they go in the other direction: Rolen/Gomes/Arroyo for prospects? It wouldn't be unheard of. And in many ways, it might be the smarter move, now that the only real difference-maker is off the table.

No team in baseball would white-flag a season down a game or three at the end of July, and certainly not the Castellini/Jocketty Reds. That's an astonishing thought, even from the board's resident Cassandra.

Plus, it would take some pretty unusual circumstances to make Rolen anything other than a Red for the rest of his career.

RedLegSuperStar
07-09-2010, 09:29 PM
I want Drew. Haren as a throw in. :)

Orlando Cabrera, Travis Wood, Chris Heisey, Juan Francisco, and Carlos Fisher for Danny Haren and Steven Drew

Zach Cozart if Orlando Cabrera isn't enough

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 09:30 PM
No team in baseball would white-flag a season down a game or three at the end of July, and certainly not the Castellini/Jocketty Reds. That's an astonishing thought, even from the board's resident Cassandra.

Plus, it would take some pretty unusual circumstances to make Rolen anything other than a Red for the rest of his career.

The White Sox did it several years back. And I'm not saying they will do that. Just that it's not unheard of or necessarily ill-advised depending what the market would be for Arroyo.

RedLegSuperStar
07-09-2010, 09:32 PM
The Reds will have $10-15M to spend next off season if they stand pat and don't up the payroll. Odds are that the payroll will increase, but even if it doesn't the Reds do not need to shed payroll in order to get the pitching that they will need in the off-season.

Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Brandon Phillips say hello

TheNext44
07-09-2010, 09:32 PM
The White Sox did it several years back. And I'm not saying they will do that. Just that it's not unheard of or necessarily ill-advised depending what the market would be for Arroyo.

Trading Arroyo is not the worst idea in the world. However, trading Rolen is.

savafan
07-09-2010, 09:34 PM
I'm not sure what people are seeing in Drew that I'm not. He's not a big on base percentage guy. His power, short of 2008, is average. His career fielding percentage is .001 off of that of Orlando Cabrera's. He's making $3,400,000 this year, and his agent is Scott Boras. There are better shortstops out there.

TheNext44
07-09-2010, 09:34 PM
Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Brandon Phillips say hello

That's with their raises next season, and assuming the worst for Bruce and Votto in arbitration.

TheNext44
07-09-2010, 09:36 PM
I'm not sure what people are seeing in Drew that I'm not. He's not a big on base percentage guy. His power, short of 2008, is average. His career fielding percentage is .001 off of that of Orlando Cabrera's. He's making $3,400,000 this year, and his agent is Scott Boras. There are better shortstops out there.

Well, there are two I can think of that likely would be a better value next season... Paul Janish and Zach Cozart.

*BaseClogger*
07-09-2010, 09:36 PM
Results are what matter though. I can't look at stats and say one guy's done better theoretically, he's just been unlucky. What happens ON the field has more merit than what could happen on paper.

I think it's a matter of semantics. Arroyo has been the better pitcher this season (at preventing runs) but Haren is the better pitcher in that he is more talented...

backbencher
07-09-2010, 09:36 PM
The White Sox did it several years back. And I'm not saying they will do that. Just that it's not unheard of or necessarily ill-advised depending what the market would be for Arroyo.

1997.

Arroyo and Gomes certainly would be on the market if the Reds were out of it. I suppose that it is possible that the Reds would make an upgrade that would put one or both on the market even if the team was in contention. No white flag sale, though.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 09:37 PM
1997.

Arroyo and Gomes certainly would be on the market if the Reds were out of it. I suppose that it is possible that the Reds would make an upgrade that would put one or both on the market even if the team was in contention. No white flag sale, though.

I don't mean a fire-sale. I mean a white-flag.

savafan
07-09-2010, 09:38 PM
I think it's a matter of semantics. Arroyo has been the better pitcher this season (at preventing runs) but Haren is the better pitcher in that he is more talented...

Talent doesn't always win ballgames. Bo Jackson and Deion Sanders had tons of talent also. :)

TheNext44
07-09-2010, 09:39 PM
I don't mean a fire-sale. I mean a white-flag.

Take Rolen out of your initial post, and it's a legitimate question. I would still so no, but it's a question worth asking.

savafan
07-09-2010, 09:40 PM
Well, there are two I can think of that likely would be a better value next season... Paul Janish and Zach Cozart.

I would go Janish over Cabrera and Drew and not lose any sleep over it.

Caveat Emperor
07-09-2010, 09:41 PM
I don't mean a fire-sale. I mean a white-flag.

The team is 11 games over .500, just came off a road series win against the Mets and you STILL can't stop yourself from declaring that the sky is going to fall any moment now.

Step back from the ledge -- the team didn't get Cliff Lee. Sucks, but these things happen. Jocketty wasn't born yesterday. He's been down this road before and he knows what needs to be done to build a Championship club. They don't just hand out World Series rings to carnies and rubes.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 09:43 PM
The team is 11 games over .500, just came off a road series win against the Mets and you STILL can't stop yourself from declaring that the sky is going to fall any moment now.

Step back from the ledge -- the team didn't get Cliff Lee. Sucks, but these things happen. Jocketty wasn't born yesterday. He's been down this road before and he knows what needs to be done to build a Championship club. They don't just hand out World Series rings to carnies and rubes.

The facts are the facts: this is an average pitching team looking to get worse (Leake's diminished innings).

westofyou
07-09-2010, 09:46 PM
The facts are the facts: this is an average pitching team looking to get worse (Leake's diminished innings).

Could be, facts are after all facts, and facts say that the team is exceeding even your expectations.

However acknowledging it or even enjoying it won't turn you into stone, might want to try it sometime, it's kinda like a whippet.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 09:52 PM
Could be, facts are after all facts, and facts say that the team is exceeding even your expectations.

However acknowledging it or even enjoying it won't turn you into stone, might want to try it sometime, it's kinda like a whippet.

Believe it or not, I'm enjoying this season immensely. Family and I will be traveling to Cincy for games for the first time in 8 years.

I'm enjoying the season so much that I want the team to acquire an ace so it can last even longer than the first of October.

Sea Ray
07-09-2010, 09:56 PM
Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Brandon Phillips say hello

Exactly. Anyone who says the Reds have an extra $10-15mill to spend doesn't understand payrolls.

PuffyPig
07-09-2010, 09:58 PM
The facts are the facts: this is an average pitching team looking to get worse (Leake's diminished innings).

You may be right, but since the end of April this team has had above average pitching.

For a pitching staff "looking to get worse", it keeps getting better.

Our relief staff is getting better since April.

Masset is better, Bray has joined the team, and looked very good. Guys like O.... and Smith are better than the guys they replaced.

Cueto and Arroyo have improved as the season has gone on.

We keep waiting for the Reds to start regressing and they do the opposite.

Take tonight for an example.

A tough loss last night. and two tough games tomorrow and Sunday.

We get word before the game our clean up hitter is out and Hernandez has been placed on the DL.

Tonight is an important game. We respond with 3 runs in the first.

This team just doesn't seam to die when it should.

And the team chasing us seems to die when it shouldn't.

This team is sim ply more than the sum of its parts.

Did anyone think Cairo could manage even 1 hit this year?

nate
07-09-2010, 10:00 PM
I have no idea what xFIP is (Is it the planet that Kevin Spacey came from in that movie?), but looking at ERA, WHIP, quality starts and wins, stats that don't require you to be a mathematician or scientist to figure out, Arroyo has been the better pitcher.

None of those stats tells me what a pitcher does by himself.

That a stat requires multiplication doesn't really make it useless.

Haren would be the best starter on the Reds staff.

savafan
07-09-2010, 10:12 PM
None of those stats tells me what a pitcher does by himself.

That a stat requires multiplication doesn't really make it useless.

Haren would be the best starter on the Reds staff.

That's an assumption based on theoreticals. If that is indeed the case, let's acquire Haren and finish the season with strat-o-matic.

M2
07-09-2010, 10:22 PM
Back up the truck for Haren & Drew. Helps in 2010, 2011 & 2012.

Now that's an idea worth pursuing. When you steal, steal with both hands.

nate
07-09-2010, 10:34 PM
That's an assumption based on theoreticals.

No. It's a fact based on K,BB and HR-rate; all things a pitcher directly controls.


If that is indeed the case, let's acquire Haren and finish the season with strat-o-matic.

I don't really see the idea that Haren is a good pitcher who would help the Reds when measured beyond team-dependent stats is really mock-worthy.

savafan
07-09-2010, 10:37 PM
Don't forget that Haren has given up quite a few homers this year. He'd likely give quite a few more in GABP. That's not dependent on the defense playing behind him.

PuffyPig
07-09-2010, 10:43 PM
I have no idea what xFIP is (Is it the planet that Kevin Spacey came from in that movie?), but looking at ERA, WHIP, quality starts and wins, stats that don't require you to be a mathematician or scientist to figure out, Arroyo has been the better pitcher.

Just because you can't understand it doesn't make it wrong.

xFIP is abetter indicator of future performance than ERA.

You can use any indicator you want, Haren is a much better pitcher than Arroyo.

If not, lets trade Arroyo for aboatload of premium prospects, because that's what Haren always costs.

Instead of, as almost everyone assumes we will do, decline his option for 2011,

Haren's Option for 2103 at $15.5M is considered part of his value. Why would that be if Arroyo is better than Haren?

nate
07-09-2010, 10:50 PM
Don't forget that Haren has given up quite a few homers this year. He'd likely give quite a few more in GABP. That's not dependent on the defense playing behind him.

He has but throughout his career, he hasn't. I would imagine he could curtail that a bit toward his career numbers. His K and BB-rates would be the best on the Reds by a good margin. Arroyo's K-rate is the worst and his BB-rate is second worst of the starters with 100 IP. Even if you regress Arroyo toward his career numbers, Haren is better.

He's a good pitcher, he'd help the team and he's signed for next year.

It would be an excellent addition to the starting staff.

savafan
07-09-2010, 10:51 PM
Just because you can't understand it doesn't make it wrong.

xFIP is abetter indicator of future performance than ERA.

You can use any indicator you want, Haren is a much better pitcher than Arroyo.

If not, lets trade Arroyo for aboatload of premium prospects, because that's what Haren always costs.

Instead of, as almost everyone assumes we will do, decline his option for 2011,

Haren's Option for 2103 at $15.5M is considered part of his value. Why would that be if Arroyo is better than Haren?

I don't believe that Arroyo's salary is a detriment, and I think his option should be picked up. Obviously, in your estimation, I'm wrong.

Arroyo:


Year Age Tm Lg W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2010 33 CIN NL 9 4 .692 4.04 18 18 0 1 0 0 120.1 107 54 54 13 41 4 58 2 0 0 497 104 1.230 8.0 1.0 3.1 4.3 1.41


Haren:


Year Age Tm Lg W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2010 29 ARI NL 7 6 .538 4.38 18 18 0 1 0 0 123.1 137 67 60 19 24 3 119 2 1 6 524 103 1.305 10.0 1.4 1.8 8.7 4.96

savafan
07-09-2010, 11:05 PM
He has but throughout his career, he hasn't. I would imagine he could curtail that a bit toward his career numbers. His K and BB-rates would be the best on the Reds by a good margin. Arroyo's K-rate is the worst and his BB-rate is second worst of the starters with 100 IP. Even if you regress Arroyo toward his career numbers, Haren is better.

He's a good pitcher, he'd help the team and he's signed for next year.

It would be an excellent addition to the starting staff.

Vicente Padilla's K and BB rates are better than both Haren's and Arroyo's. I guess he must be a better pitcher than both then, right?

PuffyPig
07-09-2010, 11:08 PM
Vicente Padilla's K and BB rates are better than both Haren's and Arroyo's. I guess he must be a better pitcher than both then, right?

His HR-rate is historically bad.

You missed that.

RedsManRick
07-09-2010, 11:09 PM
I'll never understand why people have such a hard time understanding that the near past is not the same thing as the near future.

"Has given up HR" and "Will give up HR" are not the same thing. Sure, they're related, but not perfectly. We have more information than that which, history has shown, tells us more about what is likely to happen in the future. If you want talk about the latter in an informed way, you have to bring more to the table than the former.

nate
07-09-2010, 11:11 PM
Vicente Padilla's K and BB rates are better than both Haren's and Arroyo's. I guess he must be a better pitcher than both then, right?

Hmm...I guess I expected more of a quality discussion than making a mockery of it by bringing up 50 IP from a guy who's averaged 6.30/3.17 over a long career versus a guy who's demonstrated he's an excellent strikeout and control pitcher.

I was mistaken.

I won't be mistaken again.

Cya!

savafan
07-09-2010, 11:14 PM
Hmm...I guess I expected more of a quality discussion than making a mockery of it by bringing up 50 IP from a guy who's averaged 6.30/3.17 over a long career versus a guy who's demonstrated he's an excellent strikeout and control pitcher.

I was mistaken.

I won't be mistaken again.

Cya!

You call it a mockery, but I'm trying to understand here. Sure, Haren has shown himself to be an excellent strikeout pitcher during his career, but strikeouts aren't everything, and this year his numbers aren't as strong as they have been. It's entirely possible he's having a down year, it happens. Does a team that is trying to go far in the playoffs go out and acquire a starter who is having a down year and rely on him to get them there? I wouldn't.

savafan
07-09-2010, 11:25 PM
I'll never understand why people have such a hard time understanding that the near past is not the same thing as the near future.

"Has given up HR" and "Will give up HR" are not the same thing. Sure, they're related, but not perfectly. We have more information than that which, history has shown, tells us more about what is likely to happen in the future. If you want talk about the latter in an informed way, you have to bring more to the table than the former.

But sometimes guys just lose it, and there's no stat that can predict it. The game's history is chock full of guys who just lost their ability to throw strikes, hit the cut off man, throw out runners, become prone to the long ball, etc. It's a psychological element that stats don't tell you. Likewise, the game's history is littered with "can't miss" prospects that actually did miss. The game is more than just numbers on a spreadsheet, there's a human element that requires you to actually have to watch guys play and not just look at the stats. You can sometimes get a decent idea of what the future is going to hold, but there's no surefire 100% foolproof way to predict the future. You can't tell how a guy is going to react to a different city, new teammates, a different ballpark and a new set of fans, there is no statistic that gives you those numbers.

OnBaseMachine
07-10-2010, 01:44 PM
Sources tell Jon Paul Morosi and Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com that the Phillies, Dodgers, Reds, White Sox, Angels and Yankees all had scouts in attendance for last night's game between the Marlins and Diamondbacks.

This is notable because Dan Haren and Ricky Nolasco, two potential trade targets with Cliff Lee off the market, were matched up in Friday's game.


http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/who-watched-ricky-nolasco-and-dan-haren-last-night.php?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

I said all along I prefered Haren over Lee because Haren is signed long term. Make it happen, Walt.

TheNext44
07-10-2010, 01:49 PM
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/who-watched-ricky-nolasco-and-dan-haren-last-night.php?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

I said all along I prefered Haren over Lee because Haren is signed long term. Make it happen, Walt.

Considering their history, I think Walt would love to re-acquire Haren.

westofyou
07-10-2010, 02:16 PM
How about fixing that table that's making the screen so wide?

OnBaseMachine
07-10-2010, 02:18 PM
How about fixing that table that's making the screen so wide?

Agreed. I'm having the same problem in two or three different threads.

dougdirt
07-10-2010, 02:20 PM
Dan Haren pitches in Arizona. That place is more hitter friendly than GABP. The home/road split in OPS for the Dbacks is .820 and .677. The year before it was .793 and .693. Haren isn't going to come here and see his numbers go up because of the park,he will likely see them go down slightly because of the park.

RedLegSuperStar
07-10-2010, 04:48 PM
What would be some areas of need for the DiamondBacks?

Falls City Beer
07-10-2010, 04:52 PM
What would be some areas of need for the DiamondBacks?

Where to start?

savafan
07-10-2010, 04:56 PM
Where to start?

A general manager?

Blitz Dorsey
07-10-2010, 05:11 PM
All I have to say is if we trade for Dan Haren and then Walt turns around and trades him for Mark Mulder I am not going to be happy. ;-)

RedLegSuperStar
07-10-2010, 10:03 PM
All I have to say is if we trade for Dan Haren and then Walt turns around and trades him for Mark Mulder I am not going to be happy. ;-)

We could avoid that by signing Mulder and bring him out of retirement.

LoganBuck
07-10-2010, 11:04 PM
I just don't want the Cardinals to get Dan Haren.

I don't want to deal with that nightmare for years

Carpenter
Wainwright
Haren
Garcia
Dave Duncan special as fifth starter.

The Reds have to stop the Cardinals from acquiring him, at all costs.

LoganBuck
07-11-2010, 01:46 PM
Diamondbacks break off discussions with their first round pick after failed physical.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/MLB-latest-news-from-July-070110

What a mess.

I think that there is going to be a housecleaning in Arizona, if Walt plays his cards right he could get Haren and Drew.

reds1869
07-11-2010, 01:53 PM
Diamondbacks break off discussions with their first round pick after failed physical.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/MLB-latest-news-from-July-070110

What a mess.

I think that there is going to be a housecleaning in Arizona, if Walt plays his cards right he could get Haren and Drew.

Those would be the missing pieces to a very exciting puzzle. Haren and Drew would move this team from very good to excellent.

PuffyPig
07-11-2010, 02:25 PM
I just don't want the Cardinals to get Dan Haren.

I don't want to deal with that nightmare for years

Carpenter
Wainwright
Haren
Garcia
Dave Duncan special as fifth starter.

The Reds have to stop the Cardinals from acquiring him, at all costs.

Firstly, I doubt Carpenter is an elite starter for years to come. There is some debate if he will be an elite starter for wekks to come.

And I wouldn't worry about the Cards signing Haren. Firstly they likley don't have the money, with Lohse signed for two morre years, to commit that much to the payroll with them seemingly trying to save money for the Pujols extension. Secondly, they simply don't have the prospect base to win any bidding war. They have zero high end major league ready prospects. Their only premium prospect is in A ball and not performing that well, though remains a high end prospect.

osuceltic
07-11-2010, 02:41 PM
4.37 ERA, 147 hits in 130 innings

He doesn't appear to be the same guy he used to be. We need an impact starter. This season, Haren isn't it.

*BaseClogger*
07-11-2010, 02:52 PM
4.37 ERA, 147 hits in 130 innings

He doesn't appear to be the same guy he used to be. We need an impact starter. This season, Haren isn't it.

I'm not asking this in a smart-alec tone and honestly want to hear your answer: are those really the only factors you need to look at to come to that conclusion?

RedsManRick
07-11-2010, 03:27 PM
4.37 ERA, 147 hits in 130 innings

He doesn't appear to be the same guy he used to be. We need an impact starter. This season, Haren isn't it.

Let's look a little deeper than hits and ERA.



K/9 BB/9 HR/9 HR/FB GB/FB LD% BABIP DER ERA FIP
2008 8.6 1.7 0.8 8.9% 1.28 21.1 .315 .686 3.33 3.01
2009 8.8 1.5 1.1 11.7% 1.17 20.3 .280 .687 3.14 3.23
2010 8.7 1.8 1.3 12.4% 1.06 19.8 .346 .675 4.36 3.84
career 7.7 2.0 1.1 10.9% 1.23 20.0 .304 --- 3.68 3.67

I see two things happening here.

One, he's giving up a lot of hits due to an inflated BABIP -- which itself seems to be at least partly due to a weaker defense behind him. His LD% suggests he's not getting hit any harder.

Two, he's giving up more HR. By and large, HR/FB rate is not something a pitcher has much control over. And while it's up slightly, that's not a big difference. But combined with giving up more fly balls overall, you have a recipe for a few more homers.

The Reds have a defensive efficiency rating of .698 this year (.705 last year) -- significantly better than the Diamondbacks. Chase field has a 3-year park factor index of 115 (15% more runs than average). GABP? 105.

In short, while Haren has suffered from a slight decrease in effectiveness, his current ERA reflects mostly the poor defense behind him. Replace that poor defense with good defense and you're looking at a 3.60 ERA type of pitcher -- that's without touching the HR rate. And if the GB/FB ratio is not reflective of an actual skill change but just variance, we'd expect it to regress back towards his career rate, taking the HR rate back with it.

From a WAR perspective, he put up 6+ WAR in 2008 and 2009 and is on pace for ~5 WAR this year. That's a 2-3 win upgrade over Arroyo or Harang. In FA, that level of production costs ~$20M per year. He's under contract for $12.75M in each 2011 and 2012 with a $15.5M team option ($3.5M buyout) in 2013.

While Haren might not be the absolute ideal perfect fit, he's still a very good pitcher signed at a below market contract and would be a significant talent upgrade over Harang/Arroyo with no impact on the budget.

Brutus
07-11-2010, 03:31 PM
I'm not asking this in a smart-alec tone and honestly want to hear your answer: are those really the only factors you need to look at to come to that conclusion?

Some people could still be listening to cassette tapes too. :cool:

savafan
07-11-2010, 03:31 PM
Two, he's giving up more HR. By and large, HR/FB rate is not something a pitcher has much control over. And while it's up slightly, that's not a big difference. But combined with giving up more fly balls overall, you have a recipe for a few more homers.



You don't think pitch location could have anything to do with this?

RedsManRick
07-11-2010, 03:41 PM
You don't think pitch location could have anything to do with this?

Do I think it has anything to do with it? Sure, of course it does. Do I think he's significantly lost the ability to locate his pitches? No, I don't -- or else it would also be showing up in his K and BB rates.

HR's a such a small sample sort of thing that 3 or 4 extra bad pitches over 4 months can make it look like a guy has fundamentally changed. It could have been a few balls that went fair instead of foul or a few extra feet and cleared the wall instead of being outs. We can concoct any number of possible explanations. Some will be about a change in ability, others just "luck".

The reality is that, half way through a season, we have very little evidence to support any specific explanation. Considering that his other rates have held steady, strikeouts, walks, LD% (if a guy was having location problems, should these suffer too?) and that we have evidence that his defense has been much worse this year, the mostly likely explanation we have at this point is variance. It's not nearly as fun to admit that we don't have a tidy narrative, but that's the case.

*BaseClogger*
07-11-2010, 03:45 PM
It's actually scary how consistent his strikeout and walk rates have been...

nate
07-11-2010, 03:49 PM
It's actually scary how consistent his strikeout and walk rates have been...

Consistent AND good.

:cool:

savafan
07-11-2010, 04:16 PM
Do I think it has anything to do with it? Sure, of course it does. Do I think he's significantly lost the ability to locate his pitches? No, I don't -- or else it would also be showing up in his K and BB rates.

HR's a such a small sample sort of thing that 3 or 4 extra bad pitches over 4 months can make it look like a guy has fundamentally changed. It could have been a few balls that went fair instead of foul or a few extra feet and cleared the wall instead of being outs. We can concoct any number of possible explanations. Some will be about a change in ability, others just "luck".

The reality is that, half way through a season, we have very little evidence to support any specific explanation. Considering that his other rates have held steady, strikeouts, walks, LD% (if a guy was having location problems, should these suffer too?) and that we have evidence that his defense has been much worse this year, the mostly likely explanation we have at this point is variance. It's not nearly as fun to admit that we don't have a tidy narrative, but that's the case.

Excellent points, thanks! :thumbup:

RedsManRick
07-11-2010, 04:24 PM
Excellent points, thanks! :thumbup:

No problem. Glad I had the chance to clarify my position. :beerme:

Falls City Beer
07-11-2010, 04:26 PM
So does anyone know if the DBacks' GM has been given permission to make deals of significant magnitude? I've heard some secondhand stuff, but anything directly from their front office?

RedsManRick
07-11-2010, 04:27 PM
So does anyone know if the DBacks' GM has been given permission to make deals of significant magnitude? I've heard some secondhand stuff, but anything directly from their front office?

I've not heard anything from the front office. The only rumblings I've seen were that it wasn't likely they'd do anything major during the remainder of the season unless they were absolutely blown away.

osuceltic
07-11-2010, 10:55 PM
I'm not asking this in a smart-alec tone and honestly want to hear your answer: are those really the only factors you need to look at to come to that conclusion?

I remember all the same arguments for Ryan Dempster. When a guy starts getting hit like Haren is getting hit, there's a reason.

Brutus
07-11-2010, 11:00 PM
I remember all the same arguments for Ryan Dempster. When a guy starts getting hit like Haren is getting hit, there's a reason.

That really didn't answer his question. What is it you're expecting to see in his numbers that aren't there? Are you looking at just ERA and hits allowed?

I'm not familiar with what arguments you're referring to being made about Ryan Dempster, much less when or where they were made, but Dempster is also having a pretty darn good season in his own right.

*BaseClogger*
07-12-2010, 12:53 AM
I remember all the same arguments for Ryan Dempster. When a guy starts getting hit like Haren is getting hit, there's a reason.

Again, I'm not sure what argument you are referring to specifically, but based on my research Ryan Dempster's K/BB ratio in 2002 was a third of what Dan Haren's is this season...

fearofpopvol1
07-16-2010, 07:19 PM
In his latest column, Jon Heyman relays the asking price for Diamondbacks ace Dan Haren. According to Heyman’s source, Arizona wants “two starting pitcher plus bullpen help” back for the ace. That’s a pretty staggering asking price, and one that probably precludes any team actually completing a trade for Haren.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/dan-haren-effectively-untouchable/

The Reds in theory could do this id the Dbacks were content with Bailey. Bailey + Wood + Ondrusek? Would you do that? What else could work?

I'm starting to think that the Reds are very high on Wood and aren't likely to move him.

SirFelixCat
07-16-2010, 07:21 PM
If you change "Wood" and make it "Maloney", I'd be on board with that I think. I think.

nemesis
07-16-2010, 07:32 PM
If you change "Wood" and make it "Maloney", I'd be on board with that I think. I think.

I would think Bailey, Alonso and a couple of Bullpen Arms would do the trick honestly. Their OF is set, as is C, 3B,2B and SS. 1B is a huge hole, the Rotation could use some help and the Bullpen is a wreck. We have plenty of guys to fill those needs.

So Alonso, Bailey, Ondrusek and Joseph would be a very nice need filling quality package... I would ask for Bobby Borchering and Charles Brewer if they asked for Wood as well.

Mario-Rijo
07-16-2010, 07:32 PM
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/dan-haren-effectively-untouchable/

The Reds in theory could do this id the Dbacks were content with Bailey. Bailey + Wood + Ondrusek? Would you do that? What else could work?

I'm starting to think that the Reds are very high on Wood and aren't likely to move him.

I wish Bailey was healthy to pull that off but even if he was I'm guessing we'd need to send them someone hypothetically better than Ondrusek (Boxberger/Joseph) either way I'd be all for it.

Haren
Cueto
Leake
Volquez
Chapman

That looks like a potentially stellar rotation for the next couple of years.

nemesis
07-16-2010, 07:33 PM
I wish Bailey was healthy to pull that off but even if he was I'm guessing we'd need to send them someone hypothetically better than Ondrusek (Boxberger/Joseph) either way I'd be all for it.

Haren
Cueto
Leake
Volquez
Chapman

That looks like a potentially stellar rotation for the next couple of years.

That is a pretty sick rotation when Chapman is your #5...

Mario-Rijo
07-16-2010, 07:38 PM
I would think Bailey, Alonso and a couple of Bullpen Arms would do the trick honestly. Their OF is set, as is C, 3B,2B and SS. 1B is a huge hole, the Rotation could use some help and the Bullpen is a wreck. We have plenty of guys to fill those needs.

So Alonso, Bailey, Ondrusek and Joseph would be a very nice need filling quality package... I would ask for Bobby Borchering and Charles Brewer if they asked for Wood as well.

That sounds pretty good as well.

How about a blockbuster deal:

Bailey, Alonso, Wood, Fisher, Joseph/Boxberger
Haren & Drew

or

Haren & Montero and us subtracting Wood and adding a lower level arm like Sulbaran and maybe switching out Jospeh/Boxberger for Herrera.

nemesis
07-16-2010, 08:00 PM
That sounds pretty good as well.

How about a blockbuster deal:

Bailey, Alonso, Wood, Fisher, Joseph/Boxberger
Haren & Drew

or

Haren & Montero and us subtracting Wood and adding a lower level arm like Sulbaran and maybe switching out Jospeh/Boxberger for Herrera.

If we asked for Montero, Mesaraco would have to be part of the deal. No way does Drew get acquired until the offseason by the Reds. Cabrera is the SS all the way. Not a snowflakes chance they bench Cabrera. Borchering would be an excellent target with Reynolds manning 3B and Rolen having 2 years left. Borchering just 19, is holdong his own in the MWL at a very young age and has loads of potential. A legit 3B prospect for the future.

PuffyPig
07-16-2010, 08:00 PM
I wish Bailey was healthy to pull that off but even if he was I'm guessing we'd need to send them someone hypothetically better than Ondrusek (Boxberger/Joseph) either way I'd be all for it.

Haren
Cueto
Leake
Volquez
Chapman

That looks like a potentially stellar rotation for the next couple of years.

With Wood in reserve.

CTA513
07-17-2010, 01:06 AM
Haren up to 21 homers allowed after giving up 2 more tonight.
His BB/K is great but I'm not liking his ability to give up the long ball the way he does.

corkedbat
07-17-2010, 01:23 AM
I know I'm in a minority, but I'd pickup Arroyo's option and hang onto the prospects for a better deal. Not seeing Haren as a sure-fire upgrade like Lee would have been.

nemesis
07-17-2010, 11:12 AM
Said it in another thread, Brett Myers could be an off the radar upgrade who has value going forward. I am leading the way for the Haren bandwagon, but I am in agreeableness that something is wrong with him this season now. For SD to put up 6 Runs on you in 5 IP there is something amiss.

Mario-Rijo
07-17-2010, 11:23 AM
Said it in another thread, Brett Myers could be an off the radar upgrade who has value going forward. I am leading the way for the Haren bandwagon, but I am in agreeableness that something is wrong with him this season now. For SD to put up 6 Runs on you in 5 IP there is something amiss.

I agree on Myers who also has experience in the pen so he would give us some options going forward.

mth123
07-17-2010, 11:29 AM
I think the Reds need a guy who is a clear upgrade from what is already on hand. Guys like Haren and Myers don't do it for me. Lee would have worked. Oswalt would qualify. Other than that, I'm not sure about anybody else out there.

Scrap Irony
07-17-2010, 11:51 AM
Cincinnati, at this point, needs only a clear ace. Anything less than that is superfluous to what they already have. Of course, any team that has an ace is probably willing to keep him long-term or is already in the race.

Right now, I'd argue that only Oswalt is in that rare position of being both an ace and available.

On another note, why are so many hypothetical deals involvig Bailey? He's on the shelf; guys on the DL cannot be dealt without their permission and the other team's willingness to take said injured player. That happens extremely rarely.

dunner13
07-17-2010, 11:58 AM
I think alot of people are totally discounting Haren because of a bad first half, which really isnt that bad. He may not be a sterotypical ace that strikes everyone out and totally dominates but he would be the best pitcher on this team. He is a veteran workhorse who normally has an ERA around 3 and wins 15 games a year. If we could get him with a package centered around Alonso then a second tier prospect like Frazier and thrown in a third prospect with potential like Sulburban, I think you would have to make that deal.

nate
07-17-2010, 12:07 PM
I think alot of people are totally discounting Haren because of a bad first half, which really isnt that bad. He may not be a sterotypical ace that strikes everyone out and totally dominates but he would be the best pitcher on this team. He is a veteran workhorse who normally has an ERA around 3 and wins 15 games a year. If we could get him with a package centered around Alonso then a second tier prospect like Frazier and thrown in a third prospect with potential like Sulburban, I think you would have to make that deal.

I would too but the DBacks are supposedly looking for two SP plus more for Haren, essentially taking him off the market.

Brutus
07-17-2010, 12:11 PM
I'm not sure why folks are so dismissive of Haren as an ace.

Oh sure, he's got a rather pedestrian 4.60 ERA this year, if you're into that sort of thing. Unfortunately for him, two things largely out of control: BABIP and HR/FB are both at the highest of his entire career (.351 and 13.0% respectively). He is giving up more flyballs this year, which lends itself to more homers - but normalized rates would see his ERA look much better (3.80 FIP and 3.42 xFIP).

But in my opinion, here is why Dan Haren is an ace:

* He's pitched over 200 innings in each of the past five seasons (on pace for a 6th)
* His 3-year ERA (again, if it flatters you) is 3.18 with a 4.7 to 1 strikeout-walk ratio
* His career GB/FB ratio is 1.25, respectable and indicative this year is an aberration
* In each of the past seven (7) seasons since his rookie year, this year included, he's IMPROVED his K/9 rates over the previous season
* His WAR the past 3 years: 4, 6.5 and 6

You'd be hard-pressed to find too many "aces" better than these numbers. Yes, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Tim Lincecum, etc. are mighty good. Haren, though, is pretty good too. Don't be misled by a half a season's "ERA" and dismiss Haren as 'not what the Reds need.' He would instantly be the most talented pitcher on the staff.

dunner13
07-17-2010, 12:11 PM
I would too but the DBacks are supposedly looking for two SP plus more for Haren, essentially taking him off the market.

Ahh I thought they were looking for two solid starters. I figured Alonso and Frazier might be close enough. Two Starting Pitchers is totally different, nobody is going to give them that.

*BaseClogger*
07-17-2010, 02:44 PM
I know I'm in a minority, but I'd pickup Arroyo's option and hang onto the prospects for a better deal. Not seeing Haren as a sure-fire upgrade like Lee would have been.

I'm not as eager as you are to keep Arroyo over Haren, but I do agree that it depends on the Diamondbacks' asking price. However, at some point during this window--whether it be now or the offseason--the Reds need to cash in their surplus in prospects and make a run at this thing, especially with the Harang/Arroyo money coming off the books. Priority number one should be acquiring a shortstop with that money since no clear replacement is waiting in the wings (don't try to sell me on Cozart)...

TheNext44
07-17-2010, 03:53 PM
I would too but the DBacks are supposedly looking for two SP plus more for Haren, essentially taking him off the market.

Well that depends on what they define as a "starting pitcher." Maloney and Lecure are starting pitchers, and I would gladly trade them plus a top prospect for Haren.

corkedbat
07-17-2010, 04:02 PM
I'm not as eager as you are to keep Arroyo over Haren, but I do agree that it depends on the Diamondbacks' asking price. However, at some point during this window--whether it be now or the offseason--the Reds need to cash in their surplus in prospects and make a run at this thing, especially with the Harang/Arroyo money coming off the books. Priority number one should be acquiring a shortstop with that money since no clear replacement is waiting in the wings (don't try to sell me on Cozart)...

I would definitely agree about turning over some of their prospects. I would also be more willing to go after Haren if the deal were widened to include Drew. Probably just me, but for some reason, I just don't get the feeling that SS is a major priority for WJ (I would agree that it should be though).

TheNext44
07-17-2010, 04:09 PM
I'm not as eager as you are to keep Arroyo over Haren, but I do agree that it depends on the Diamondbacks' asking price. However, at some point during this window--whether it be now or the offseason--the Reds need to cash in their surplus in prospects and make a run at this thing, especially with the Harang/Arroyo money coming off the books. Priority number one should be acquiring a shortstop with that money since no clear replacement is waiting in the wings (don't try to sell me on Cozart)...

I won't try to sell you on Cozart, but maybe you can sell me on why you are down on him.

Spitball
07-17-2010, 04:36 PM
I think the Reds need a guy who is a clear upgrade from what is already on hand. Guys like Haren and Myers don't do it for me. Lee would have worked. Oswalt would qualify. Other than that, I'm not sure about anybody else out there.

I agree. And with Oswalt, the Reds would be commited to the $25 million remaining on his contract. Plus, he reportedly will only agree to a trade if his 2012 option is picked up by the new team.

Without a clear upgrade available among starting pitchers, I'd love to see the Reds blow the Royals away with an offer for Joakim Soria. However, I just don't see how the two teams would line-up for a trade.

With Billy Butler and Eric Hosmer already there, they would not be interested Alonso. Mesoraco might interest them, but I understand they really like their own young catcher Will Myers. They have Ka'ahue and Gordon already waiting for outfield spots. They have a lot of good young arms in their system.

With Lee off the market, Soria would be my first choice to upgrade the Reds. Unfortunately, I don't see how that could happen.

*BaseClogger*
07-17-2010, 05:04 PM
I won't try to sell you on Cozart, but maybe you can sell me on why you are down on him.

I don't think he is gonna hit enough to be more than a slightly improved Paul Janish. I don't want my eggs in the that basket, and if the Reds are going to be Worlds Series contenders I want them to go out and get their Concepcion/Larkin...

LoganBuck
07-17-2010, 05:43 PM
I think we need to take a close look at the 40 man roster, and the players that must be added to it this winter. I am starting to do some investigating on this and the Reds have a whole bunch of decisions to make. Instead of letting other teams pick off talented players, bundle them in trades.

Off the top of my head players that need to be added to the 40 man.

Todd Frazier
Zach Cozart
Devin Mesoraco
Matt Klinker
probably Yasmani Grandal
There always seems to be an International Player or two that have been in the system longer than you think.
I am sure there are others.

I don't want to watch teams scoop up players from the Reds in the Rule 5 draft, when they could be traded for real, present, and future value.

RedLegSuperStar
07-17-2010, 09:45 PM
MLBTradeRumors.com is reporting that one of the teams not on his list of twelve teams to be traded to is not the Reds.. Maybe that matters.. Maybe not

Brutus
07-17-2010, 09:58 PM
MLBTradeRumors.com is reporting that one of the teams not on his list of twelve teams to be traded to is not the Reds.. Maybe that matters.. Maybe not

Ken Rosenthal is the one reporting it.

I was confused by the wording, but he's essentially saying Haren could block a deal to Cincinnati, as the Reds are one of the 12 teams he can block.

Falls City Beer
07-17-2010, 10:02 PM
Might not need Haren. The defense is good enough to make Arroyo (or Harang for that matter) effective, Volquez is, so far, having no problems with his control, and, of course, the reports of the offense's death have been egregiously exaggerated. Regardless, the Reds hold a bunch of cards in negotiating. They've got depth and no great urgency to sell that depth for talent. They'll likely get what they want without touching much of the surface. It's hard to argue at this point (seeing Volquez's start) that they're not ready to challenge for the division title.

edabbs44
07-17-2010, 10:12 PM
Might not need Haren. The defense is good enough to make Arroyo (or Harang for that matter) effective, Volquez is, so far, having no problems with his control, and, of course, the reports of the offense's death have been egregiously exaggerated. Regardless, the Reds hold a bunch of cards in negotiating. They've got depth and no great urgency to sell that depth for talent. They'll likely get what they want without touching much of the surface. It's hard to argue at this point (seeing Volquez's start) that they're not ready to challenge for the division title.

And they have a GM that understands that...I don't think we'll see any dumb trades at the deadline, overpaying just because. At this point I think Walt will allow the field to come to him and, if there aren't major upgrades to be had, we'll see a little tinkering and that's about it.

Which is probably a good thing, since the next few years look as promising as this one does, if not more.

Mario-Rijo
07-17-2010, 10:56 PM
I don't think he is gonna hit enough to be more than a slightly improved Paul Janish. I don't want my eggs in the that basket, and if the Reds are going to be Worlds Series contenders I want them to go out and get their Concepcion/Larkin...

A slightly improved Paul Janish? If Paul Janish had slightly better power (the only real flaw he has) he'd be an average to slightly above SS. And that is where Cozart is clearly better. Count me as one who thinks Cozart will be markedly better than Paul.

RedEye
07-17-2010, 11:23 PM
Might not need Haren. The defense is good enough to make Arroyo (or Harang for that matter) effective, Volquez is, so far, having no problems with his control, and, of course, the reports of the offense's death have been egregiously exaggerated. Regardless, the Reds hold a bunch of cards in negotiating. They've got depth and no great urgency to sell that depth for talent. They'll likely get what they want without touching much of the surface. It's hard to argue at this point (seeing Volquez's start) that they're not ready to challenge for the division title.

Lest this post get buried in an unassuming Danny Haren conversation, I just wanted to highlight its rarity. FCB, in four years of reading and posting here, I don't think I have ever seen you this positive about the Reds chances going forward.

This truly must be a good team! :beerme:

*BaseClogger*
07-18-2010, 05:37 AM
A slightly improved Paul Janish? If Paul Janish had slightly better power (the only real flaw he has) he'd be an average to slightly above SS. And that is where Cozart is clearly better. Count me as one who thinks Cozart will be markedly better than Paul.

I just don't see what has everybody so optimistic about Cozart's bat. He's gonna turn 25 soon and for his career in the minors he has hit .264/.334/.416. His walk rate has been low outside of 2008, even with his recent power surge. For all of the flack he gets, Janish did post a .358 OBP in the minors and was a 5th round pick. Hell, Jeff Keppinger would still be the best shortstop if he were still on the team. Go get Hanley, Walt...

TheNext44
07-18-2010, 06:24 AM
I just don't see what has everybody so optimistic about Cozart's bat. He's gonna turn 25 soon and for his career in the minors he has hit .264/.334/.416. His walk rate has been low outside of 2008, even with his recent power surge. For all of the flack he gets, Janish did post a .358 OBP in the minors and was a 5th round pick. Hell, Jeff Keppinger would still be the best shortstop if he were still on the team. Go get Hanley, Walt...

Especially at SS, I value defense over hitting. So I actually think Janish would be fine as the starter, and Cozart probably would be even better. I would never want Keppinger as a starting SS ever again. I think it was a mistake to trade him, since he made a fine back up, but he is easily the worst starter between him and and the guys the Reds have now.

But if you're not happy with Janish, but are with Keppinger, I can see why you don't think highly of Cozart. Just a difference of opinion.

mth123
07-18-2010, 09:51 AM
I just don't see what has everybody so optimistic about Cozart's bat. He's gonna turn 25 soon and for his career in the minors he has hit .264/.334/.416. His walk rate has been low outside of 2008, even with his recent power surge. For all of the flack he gets, Janish did post a .358 OBP in the minors and was a 5th round pick. Hell, Jeff Keppinger would still be the best shortstop if he were still on the team. Go get Hanley, Walt...

Janish didn't hit at the higher levels nearly as much as Cozart has and OBP w/O power to go with it frequently doesn't translate at the major league level. Cozart is clearly a better bat than Janish.

Keppinger's time at SS in 2008 is probably the worst display of IF defense at that position that I can remember.

membengal
07-18-2010, 04:01 PM
Might not need Haren. The defense is good enough to make Arroyo (or Harang for that matter) effective, Volquez is, so far, having no problems with his control, and, of course, the reports of the offense's death have been egregiously exaggerated. Regardless, the Reds hold a bunch of cards in negotiating. They've got depth and no great urgency to sell that depth for talent. They'll likely get what they want without touching much of the surface. It's hard to argue at this point (seeing Volquez's start) that they're not ready to challenge for the division title.

Yay offense! Another explosion in support of Travis Wood today...

ETA: 3 runs Friday night, 5 hits Saturday night, and shutout through six by the immortal Aaron Cook today so far. I would not exactly call the offense cranking along...

Falls City Beer
07-18-2010, 04:48 PM
Yay offense! Another explosion in support of Travis Wood today...

ETA: 3 runs Friday night, 5 hits Saturday night, and shutout through six by the immortal Aaron Cook today so far. I would not exactly call the offense cranking along...

When you're missing your second best hitter, this will happen. And Aaron Cook is a ground ball machine. In other words, he's poison to a homer-dependent offense.

membengal
07-18-2010, 04:49 PM
Of course he is. Whatever you say.

Course, Cook has been lit up like a Christmas tree all year, but, yeah, it's clear that he should shut down this vaunted offense...

OnBaseMachine
07-18-2010, 04:51 PM
Yay offense! Another explosion in support of Travis Wood today...

ETA: 3 runs Friday night, 5 hits Saturday night, and shutout through six by the immortal Aaron Cook today so far. I would not exactly call the offense cranking along...

Agreed. Offense is becoming a major problem.

Mario-Rijo
07-18-2010, 04:54 PM
Agreed. Offense is becoming a major problem.

Rolens absences are hurting it quite a bit IMO. Of course when he was in lately he hasn't been real productive anyway, dog days?

Falls City Beer
07-18-2010, 04:55 PM
Of course he is. Whatever you say.

Course, Cook has been lit up like a Christmas tree all year, but, yeah, it's clear that he should shut down this vaunted offense...

GO/AO: 2.20 this season

2.25 for his career.

Groundball machine. But you're not interested in the facts, you've got a rant going.

Never mind they've got Corky and Cairo and a Sunday Special lineup going.

membengal
07-18-2010, 04:56 PM
I have no rant going. At no point did I raise my voice. Just like highlighting funny things you type.

Falls City Beer
07-18-2010, 04:57 PM
I have no rant going. At no point did I raise my voice. Just like highlighting funny things you type.

Except I'm right and you aren't. That's hysterical.

membengal
07-18-2010, 04:58 PM
Aaron Cook in 2010 coming into today:

4.88 ERA and 1.485 whip.

Why, he's practically Roy Halladay!

membengal
07-18-2010, 04:59 PM
Except I'm right and you aren't. That's hysterical.

You're something. But it ain't right.

It is repetitive, though.

Falls City Beer
07-18-2010, 05:06 PM
You're something. But it ain't right.

It is repetitive, though.


I'll join the growing chorus of those who are saying to you: take it private.

membengal
07-18-2010, 05:07 PM
My bad, fcb. Just trying to have a discussion. Sorry for the facts. And, I don't know to what "chorus" you are referring.

Cool talking to you again.

_Sir_Charles_
07-18-2010, 05:36 PM
Gotta agree with FCB on this one. Yes, our offense has been quite good this year. But it IS still highly homerun dependent. Cook may have crappy numbers overall, but he IS a groundball machine. He's exactly the type of pitcher that can shut down the way our offense is built. Add into that the fact that we have several starters out...it's no surprise that he had success today against us.

_Sir_Charles_
07-18-2010, 05:39 PM
Not about Haren, but another starter available....Oswalt. He left the game today after being hit on the ankle with a liner. The Astros may be regretting not dealing him sooner.

*BaseClogger*
07-18-2010, 06:07 PM
Before I respond, a message for FCB: I love you and appreciate your posts. There is a reason why I started your fan club, after all. Don't let the hatehs get to you.


Especially at SS, I value defense over hitting. So I actually think Janish would be fine as the starter, and Cozart probably would be even better. I would never want Keppinger as a starting SS ever again. I think it was a mistake to trade him, since he made a fine back up, but he is easily the worst starter between him and and the guys the Reds have now.

But if you're not happy with Janish, but are with Keppinger, I can see why you don't think highly of Cozart. Just a difference of opinion.

Lets set some things straight first off:

1) I like Janish and want him in there at least three times a week right now.

2) I actually do value defense a little more than offense from a shortstop, because if I had to choose between two guys with roughly equal value I take the defender.

But, I want the guy with the higher overall value, whether it be with the bat or with the glove. However, I don't find Keppinger's fielding to be nearly as hideous as most of the posters on this site (although that was probably hyperbole when I said definitively that he would be the best shortstop on this team--but you gotta admit the four of them are comparable overall) and he's close to league average with the bat, something the .650 OPS bunch can't do.


Janish didn't hit at the higher levels nearly as much as Cozart has and OBP w/O power to go with it frequently doesn't translate at the major league level. Cozart is clearly a better bat than Janish.

Keppinger's time at SS in 2008 is probably the worst display of IF defense at that position that I can remember.

No doubt Cozart's bat looks better than Janish's; I just don't want to rely on Cozart as "the answer" because I don't think he is one. Like Janish before him, he should be viewed a backup who can take over for an offensive-minded shortstop who doesn't hit...

Benihana
07-18-2010, 06:31 PM
No doubt Cozart's bat looks better than Janish's; I just don't want to rely on Cozart as "the answer" because I don't think he is one. Like Janish before him, he should be viewed a backup who can take over for an offensive-minded shortstop who doesn't hit...

This.

corkedbat
07-18-2010, 08:02 PM
Before I respond, a message for FCB: I love you and appreciate your posts. There is a reason why I started your fan club, after all. Don't let the hatehs get to you.



Lets set some things straight first off:

1) I like Janish and want him in there at least three times a week right now.

2) I actually do value defense a little more than offense from a shortstop, because if I had to choose between two guys with roughly equal value I take the defender.

But, I want the guy with the higher overall value, whether it be with the bat or with the glove. However, I don't find Keppinger's fielding to be nearly as hideous as most of the posters on this site (although that was probably hyperbole when I said definitively that he would be the best shortstop on this team--but you gotta admit the four of them are comparable overall) and he's close to league average with the bat, something the .650 OPS bunch can't do.



No doubt Cozart's bat looks better than Janish's; I just don't want to rely on Cozart as "the answer" because I don't think he is one. Like Janish before him, he should be viewed a backup who can take over for an offensive-minded shortstop who doesn't hit...

If you can find answers elsewhere (like the OF & behind the plate) Janish, Cozart and Rojas can get you by with their defense as long as they are hitting at the bottom of the order - providied you don't expect more that their capable of giving and planning accordingly. I'm OK with one carrying one light bat in the order as long as there is superior defense.

If Mesoraco continues him emergence and they sign Grandal, the catching spot may start to pull more of its offensive wieght and it may be easier to carry a glove at SS.

As for a more satisfactory all-around in-house answer at SS? Short of a major trade, you're probably looking at least a couple of years down the road to the arrival of the next wave (Gregorius, Arias, Hamilton and Valor).

Benihana
07-18-2010, 08:38 PM
First off: This thread is somewhat moot as apparently the Reds are one of 12 teams that Dan Haren has listed as a team he could block a trade to.

Secondly: Also according to MLBTR, the price for Haren is sky-high: two starters and a reliever. Putting this in Reds terms, it probably means Travis Wood, Homer Bailey, and one from Ondrusek/Fisher/J.Smith/Masset/Burton/Herrera. The D'backs traded us an injured Micah Owings at the deadline two years ago. Could we return the favor by sending them an injured Homer Bailey? Would anyone on this board actually go for that trade (Bailey, Wood, and a reliever for Haren)? I wouldn't.

I would do Bailey and the reliever of their choice for Haren, but if Wood was involved then I would demand Drew as well. Even then I'd be hesitant. I guess what this post is trying to say is "Fugghedaboutit."

Brutus
07-18-2010, 08:48 PM
First off: This thread is somewhat moot as apparently the Reds are one of 12 teams that Dan Haren has listed as a team he could block a trade to.

Secondly: Also according to MLBTR, the price for Haren is sky-high: two starters and a reliever. Putting this in Reds terms, it probably means Travis Wood, Homer Bailey, and one from Ondrusek/Fisher/J.Smith/Masset/Burton/Herrera. The D'backs traded us an injured Micah Owings at the deadline two years ago. Could we return the favor by sending them an injured Homer Bailey? Would anyone on this board actually go for that trade (Bailey, Wood, and a reliever for Haren)? I wouldn't.

I would do Bailey and the reliever of their choice for Haren, but if Wood was involved then I would demand Drew as well. Even then I'd be hesitant. I guess what this post is trying to say is "Fugghedaboutit."

I'd do it in a heartbeat. Travis Wood and Homer Bailey both are pitchers with a ton of upside. However, neither are Dan Haren right now and may never be. Haren not only would become the Reds' best pitcher instantly in my honest opinion, he would do so still having a few years left on his deal.

So yes, I wouldn't bat an eye.

TheNext44
07-18-2010, 08:53 PM
I'd do it in a heartbeat. Travis Wood and Homer Bailey both are pitchers with a ton of upside. However, neither are Dan Haren right now and may never be. Haren not only would become the Reds' best pitcher instantly in my honest opinion, he would do so still having a few years left on his deal.

So yes, I wouldn't bat an eye.

I'm not convinced that Haren would be better than Wood over the next few years. And I really like Haren. Replace Wood with Maloney, and I think the D-backs go for it anyway.

*BaseClogger*
07-18-2010, 11:06 PM
Replace Wood with Maloney, and I think the D-backs go for it anyway.

Not at all...

RED VAN HOT
07-19-2010, 12:08 AM
The pitching is fine and the payroll will always be limited. Rather than trade prospects for a pitcher who will remove any remaining payroll flexibility for the next 2-3 years, I'd rather see the money spent on locking up Votto and Bruce for five years. It has taken a long time to get the core team and minor league pipeline to this point. Let's make certain we remain a contender for years to come. It makes the summers more enjoyable.

Mario-Rijo
07-19-2010, 12:31 AM
No doubt Cozart's bat looks better than Janish's; I just don't want to rely on Cozart as "the answer" because I don't think he is one. Like Janish before him, he should be viewed a backup who can take over for an offensive-minded shortstop who doesn't hit...

I'll say it now and you can remember you heard it here 1st, Cozart will be more valuable than Keppinger any way you slice it. And furthermore I think Cozart will eventually be a better offensive player than Keppinger, easily. In fact I think he will be just as good as Kepp right out of the chute. Not the same type of offensive player as Kepp but no less productive overall. And a far better defender as well. Similiar defensively to Janish (better range lesser arm) but a better offensive player right away.

So indeed Cozart would start for you if he is what I believe he is, he'd be the best overall player. And the only one who can hold his own both off. & def.

Mario-Rijo
07-19-2010, 12:32 AM
The pitching is fine and the payroll will always be limited. Rather than trade prospects for a pitcher who will remove any remaining payroll flexibility for the next 2-3 years, I'd rather see the money spent on locking up Votto and Bruce for five years. It has taken a long time to get the core team and minor league pipeline to this point. Let's make certain we remain a contender for years to come. It makes the summers more enjoyable.

I'm all for that, good call RVH! :thumbup:

Mario-Rijo
07-19-2010, 12:34 AM
I'm not convinced that Haren would be better than Wood over the next few years. And I really like Haren. Replace Wood with Maloney, and I think the D-backs go for it anyway.

I doubt it but you probably could replace Wood with a lower level guy like Sulbaran, maybe.

fearofpopvol1
07-19-2010, 01:34 AM
First off: This thread is somewhat moot as apparently the Reds are one of 12 teams that Dan Haren has listed as a team he could block a trade to.

Secondly: Also according to MLBTR, the price for Haren is sky-high: two starters and a reliever. Putting this in Reds terms, it probably means Travis Wood, Homer Bailey, and one from Ondrusek/Fisher/J.Smith/Masset/Burton/Herrera. The D'backs traded us an injured Micah Owings at the deadline two years ago. Could we return the favor by sending them an injured Homer Bailey? Would anyone on this board actually go for that trade (Bailey, Wood, and a reliever for Haren)? I wouldn't.

I would do Bailey and the reliever of their choice for Haren, but if Wood was involved then I would demand Drew as well. Even then I'd be hesitant. I guess what this post is trying to say is "Fugghedaboutit."

Really? You would've traded Mesoraco and Wood for Lee though? And he was only under control for a few months?

I'd be a little reluctant to do Wood, Bailey and a reliever of their choice. But I would definitely do Wood, Maloney and a reliever of their choice. Problem is, I'm not sure that's enough to get it done. Wood would not be a dealbreaker in landing Haren for me if I was in charge.

Also, I think the Reds could get Haren and Drew if the Reds were willing to part with Wood, Alonso, Joseph, Maloney and Heisey.

As I said in the Lee thread, I'm starting to think that Wood isn't going anywhere though. I think Walt will hold on to him.

*BaseClogger*
07-19-2010, 04:02 AM
I'll say it now and you can remember you heard it here 1st, Cozart will be more valuable than Keppinger any way you slice it. And furthermore I think Cozart will eventually be a better offensive player than Keppinger, easily. In fact I think he will be just as good as Kepp right out of the chute. Not the same type of offensive player as Kepp but no less productive overall. And a far better defender as well. Similiar defensively to Janish (better range lesser arm) but a better offensive player right away.

So indeed Cozart would start for you if he is what I believe he is, he'd be the best overall player. And the only one who can hold his own both off. & def.

Cozart does have 27 points on Kepp in OPS... in the International League...

WebScorpion
07-19-2010, 04:23 AM
Our worst starter's ERA is 3.96 (Arroyo). Haren's ERA is 4.60...which starter do we trade (or DFA) for him?
With the return of Volquez and the emergence of Wood, Walt would be crazy to trade for another starter.

reds44
07-19-2010, 04:34 AM
Our worst starter's ERA is 3.96 (Arroyo). Haren's ERA is 4.60...which starter do we trade (or DFA) for him?
With the return of Volquez and the emergence of Wood, Walt would be crazy to trade for another starter.
Yep. Time to look for bullpen help/another bat.

Mario-Rijo
07-19-2010, 05:48 AM
Cozart does have 27 points on Kepp in OPS... in the International League...

Kepp does have 49 points of OPS on Cozart...lifetime in the minors...of course I don't know how much we want to count his age 25, 26, 27 and 28 years, not sure that makes it a fair comparison.

RichRed
07-21-2010, 02:51 PM
Cincinnati is reportedly on Haren's "no-trade" list.

http://www.fannation.com/truth_and_rumors/view/207034-haren-prefers-west-coast-may-nix-cincinnati?xid=siextra_072110

BRM
07-21-2010, 03:46 PM
The Cards are reportedly "focused" on acquiring Haren or Westbrook.

OldRightHander
07-21-2010, 03:49 PM
I say we trade Daniel Ray Herrera for him straight up. Mark from Florence seemed to think that would go.

nemesis
07-21-2010, 05:01 PM
Kepp does have 49 points of OPS on Cozart...lifetime in the minors...of course I don't know how much we want to count his age 25, 26, 27 and 28 years, not sure that makes it a fair comparison.

Agreed, and Cozart is going to be a plus defender at SS while Keppinger will be a negative defender at every position. Like I said there are 7 SS in MLB with enough AB's to qualify for a batting title that OPS of .725 or higher. Cozart could be one of them as soon as next year.

savafan
07-23-2010, 04:14 PM
http://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN


Buster_ESPN

Heard this: The Diamondbacks have told other teams they are intent on moving Dan Haren before the deadline. Teams involved: DET,STL,PHI,NYY

Benihana
07-23-2010, 04:29 PM
Really? You would've traded Mesoraco and Wood for Lee though? And he was only under control for a few months?

I'd be a little reluctant to do Wood, Bailey and a reliever of their choice. But I would definitely do Wood, Maloney and a reliever of their choice. Problem is, I'm not sure that's enough to get it done. Wood would not be a dealbreaker in landing Haren for me if I was in charge.

Also, I think the Reds could get Haren and Drew if the Reds were willing to part with Wood, Alonso, Joseph, Maloney and Heisey.

As I said in the Lee thread, I'm starting to think that Wood isn't going anywhere though. I think Walt will hold on to him.

Agree that Wood probably isn't going anywhere at this point. And fortunately for the Reds, the Dbacks have no need for a catcher, as they have Snyder and Montero.

So IF the Reds decide they want to make a play for Haren, that leaves Bailey, Alonso, Heisey, Francisco, and Cozart. I'm assuming they wouldn't want Frazier as they have Reynolds to play 3B. My guess is the Reds are less interested in Drew than we would like, as they seem comfortable with Cabrera for the time being. Therefore, I'd pull back Cozart, and give ARI their choice of two of Bailey, Alonso, Heisey and Francisco, along with any minor league pitcher other than Chapman. If they want more than that, I'm cool with what we got- as long as STL doesn't acquire him.

Brutus
07-23-2010, 09:18 PM
REPORT: Dan Haren deal to the Yankees close?

Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi say yes (and the deal would not involve Jesus Montero)

http://mlb-facts-and-rumors.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/22297882/23379223

Mario-Rijo
07-23-2010, 10:08 PM
REPORT: Dan Haren deal to the Yankees close?

Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi say yes (and the deal would not involve Jesus Montero)

http://mlb-facts-and-rumors.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/22297882/23379223

:confused:

Ok so the rich get richer and don't have to come off their top prospect? How does that work, it's not as if Haren's money is that big an issue.

Falls City Beer
07-23-2010, 10:12 PM
:confused:

Ok so the rich get richer and don't have to come off their top prospect? How does that work, it's not as if Haren's money is that big an issue.

And I guarantee you, the D-backs will kick in some money. Teams like Arizona want to get the most money they can off their books. They're not all that interested in amassing prospects.

Mario-Rijo
07-23-2010, 10:14 PM
And I guarantee you, the D-backs will kick in some money. Teams like Arizona want to get the most money they can off their books. They're not all that interested in amassing prospects.

Something folks need to remember when tossing out hypothetical farm emptying deals, those just don't happen anymore. Money is king!

Brutus
07-23-2010, 11:07 PM
Something folks need to remember when tossing out hypothetical farm emptying deals, those just don't happen anymore. Money is king!

So true.

I pointed out in a thread earlier today that we hardly ever -- as in never -- see an actual trade that winds up involving the kind of personnel that is portrayed as an 'asking price' in the media reports leading up to the deal.

fearofpopvol1
07-24-2010, 02:25 AM
Ivan Nova as the centerpiece in a Yanks/Dbacks deal? Nova is solid for sure...and he is having a great year, but his numbers don't blow me away.

Being perfectly honest and unbiased, Travis Wood is the exact same age and put up better numbers in the minors and has already contributed at the show. Simply put, he's a better pitcher than Nova is right now.

I am not sure what else the Yanks would be giving up, but if Nova is the best piece the DBacks get, it is incredibly sad the Reds couldn't or didn't try harder to land Haren. The Reds would only need to absorb salary for this year with Arroyo and Harang coming off the books next year. Travis Wood and some other fringe prospects for Haren is a no brainer.

Homer Bailey
07-24-2010, 02:32 AM
jaysonst


#Diamondbacks & #Yankees were "never close" on Haren. NY turned down Ariz proposal: Joba, Ivan Nova & 2 prospects http://es.pn/cwtH8s

Mario-Rijo
07-24-2010, 09:01 PM
jaysonst

#Diamondbacks & #Yankees were "never close" on Haren. NY turned down Ariz proposal: Joba, Ivan Nova & 2 prospects http://es.pn/cwtH8s

Plus read on the insider that one other potential deal (I am assuming it was a seperate offer) was the D-Backs trying to unload Chris Snyder and Chad Qualls contracts with Haren and the yanks wouldn't take on that much money (this weeks sign that apocalypse is upon us). :cool:

WebScorpion
07-25-2010, 12:07 AM
I'm not sure why so many people are still clamoring for the Reds to acquire another starting pitcher. Cliff Lee was one thing, but Roy Oswalt and Dan Haren are pitchers living on their rep...they are both shadows of their former selves. Haren hasn't won since June 12th :eek: and his ERA is 4.60...opposing hitters are batting .285 against him. Which one of our pitchers (and we have 7 starters to consider once everyone is healthy) do we get rid of? I don't really think starting pitching is our most glaring need at this point. In fact, I'm not sure we have ANY glaring needs unless maybe you replace Cabrera with someone like Hanley Ramirez, or Gomes with Josh Hamilton. I say no to Haren.

HokieRed
07-25-2010, 12:18 AM
Good post. I like the way you run against the common wisdom on RZ. Fortunately the FO seems to see things much as you do.

Spitball
07-25-2010, 12:34 AM
Good post. I like the way you run against the common wisdom on RZ. Fortunately the FO seems to see things much as you do.

Webby is wise. I don't want Haren to go to the Cards, but I don't see him being much more than a lateral move if acquired for the Reds' rotation.

I certainly would hate to see the Reds get into a bidding war and overpay for Haren. After all, he is not a Lee-type difference maker at this point.

_Sir_Charles_
07-25-2010, 12:10 PM
I'm not sure why so many people are still clamoring for the Reds to acquire another starting pitcher. Cliff Lee was one thing, but Roy Oswalt and Dan Haren are pitchers living on their rep...they are both shadows of their former selves. Haren hasn't won since June 12th :eek: and his ERA is 4.60...opposing hitters are batting .285 against him. Which one of our pitchers (and we have 7 starters to consider once everyone is healthy) do we get rid of? I don't really think starting pitching is our most glaring need at this point. In fact, I'm not sure we have ANY glaring needs unless maybe you replace Cabrera with someone like Hanley Ramirez, or Gomes with Josh Hamilton. I say no to Haren.

I agree. I've been saying this for several weeks now. I just don't get the desire for a starting pitcher. At all.

nate
07-25-2010, 12:35 PM
I agree. I've been saying this for several weeks now. I just don't get the desire for a starting pitcher. At all.

Here's how the Reds starting pitching ranks versus the rest of the NL in the following categories. I've included the Cardinals as it's likely we'll be fighting with them for the division title.

An "8" or higher would indicate average:


K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 AVG WHIP BABIP LOB% ERA FIP E-F xFIP
Reds 14 11 15 11 8 10 5 11 11 13 10 15
Cardinals 12 2 4 6 6 3 6 13 1 7 16 3



I'm not seeing a lot of 8 or higher for the Reds there.

_Sir_Charles_
07-25-2010, 12:37 PM
Here's how the Reds starting pitching ranks versus the rest of the NL in the following categories. I've included the Cardinals as it's likely we'll be fighting with them for the division title.

An "8" or higher would indicate average:


K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 AVG WHIP BABIP LOB% ERA FIP E-F xFIP
Reds 14 11 15 11 8 10 5 11 11 13 10 15
Cardinals 12 2 4 6 6 3 6 13 1 7 16 3

I'm not seeing a lot of 8 or higher for the Reds there.

Go back and look at the trends though. How do we fare in the last 2 months or so? It'll be a different story I think.

nate
07-25-2010, 12:52 PM
Go back and look at the trends though. How do we fare in the last 2 months or so? It'll be a different story I think.

I'll let you blaze that trail and post your research as I did.

The story I'm reading from the above numbers says that while the Cardinals are likely to regress, it will be to a place that's still above average. The Reds are likely to regress from below average to even more below average.

Should the Cardinals add an Oswalt or a Haren, the likeliness and amount of that regression will be lessened.

What will the Reds do to not only lessen their regression but greatly improve the staff so as to be the net superior team?

_Sir_Charles_
07-25-2010, 12:54 PM
I'll let you blaze that trail and post your research as I did.

The story I'm reading from the above numbers says that while the Cardinals are likely to regress, it will be to a place that's still above average. The Reds are likely to regress from below average to even more below average.

Should the Cardinals add an Oswalt or a Haren, the likeliness and amount of that regression will be lessened.

What will the Reds do to not only lessen their regression but greatly improve the staff so as to be the net superior team?

Okay. What site did you use? I've never tried to get sorted stats like this.

nate
07-25-2010, 12:56 PM
Okay. What site did you use? I've never tried to get sorted stats like this.

Fangraphs and the "RANK" function in the OpenOffice suite.

Falls City Beer
07-25-2010, 12:59 PM
I'll let you blaze that trail and post your research as I did.

The story I'm reading from the above numbers says that while the Cardinals are likely to regress, it will be to a place that's still above average. The Reds are likely to regress from below average to even more below average.

Should the Cardinals add an Oswalt or a Haren, the likeliness and amount of that regression will be lessened.

What will the Reds do to not only lessen their regression but greatly improve the staff so as to be the net superior team?

I am curious: why would the Reds necessarily regress to "even more below average" if the principals in the rotation are different? I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm saying I'm not sure I understand the assumption entirely.

_Sir_Charles_
07-25-2010, 01:11 PM
Okay, I'll try this a bit.

Reds NL rankings for
March/April...ERA 14th / HR's 12 / BB 11 / K 10
May............ERA 9th / HR's 9 / BB 8 / K 6
June...........ERA 10th / HR's 11 / BB 15 / K 2
July............ERA 1st / HR's 7 / BB 13 / K 4

Strike outs and ERA are both trending well. HR's are pretty steady, but considering where we play, I expect that. The walks are the troubling stat and it has been all year long.

Other than the increase in strikeouts, its exactly what I was expecting to see. Pitchers turning it around since the first month of suckitude.

I'm sure someone else can pull these stats out better than me, but I still don't see where Reds pitchers should regress.

OnBaseMachine
07-25-2010, 07:23 PM
Dan Haren has been traded to the Angels for Joe Saunders and three prospects.

11larkin11
07-25-2010, 07:24 PM
^He's quick.

Brutus
07-25-2010, 07:26 PM
Callaspo and now Haren - good haul for the Angels. They're signalling to Texas they won't go down without a fight.

nate
07-25-2010, 07:30 PM
Okay, I'll try this a bit.

Reds NL rankings for
March/April...ERA 14th / HR's 12 / BB 11 / K 10
May............ERA 9th / HR's 9 / BB 8 / K 6
June...........ERA 10th / HR's 11 / BB 15 / K 2
July............ERA 1st / HR's 7 / BB 13 / K 4

Strike outs and ERA are both trending well.

HR's are pretty steady, but considering where we play, I expect that. The walks are the troubling stat and it has been all year long.

Other than the increase in strikeouts, its exactly what I was expecting to see. Pitchers turning it around since the first month of suckitude.

I'm sure someone else can pull these stats out better than me, but I still don't see where Reds pitchers should regress.

The counting stats don't make sense early in the season as not all teams play the same number of games nor do they play the same number of home games. That can make a big difference in early rankings.

You may be using the entire pitching staff as well. I was talking solely about the starters.

This is Reds 2010 starting pitching, monthly splits by rank.


Split K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 AVG WHIP BABIP LOB% ERA FIP E-F xFIP
July 15 9 15 7 1 2 1 12 2 11 16 16
June 15 15 15 11 11 14 4 11 10 14 14 16
May 14 6 8 8 10 9 8 11 9 7 10 8
March/April 8 10 10 12 12 13 14 6 14 12 2 10



I'm not seeing a K-rate improvement. I see it getting worse.

I'm not seeing a BB-rate improvement or trend of any sortr.

The HR-rate is erratic.

Batting average against is great this month but poor otherwise; I wouldn't call this a trend. However, hits are a result of pitching AND defense so perhaps the defense has improved and the pitching has improved.

WHIP and LOB% are influenced by defense as well.

Or maybe we're getting some BABIP love.

ERA is, again, defense and pitching related.

FIP and xFIP are all explained in the K, BB and HR-rates.

E-F (ERA - FIP) could nudge is in the direction of improving defensively.

The trends you're seeing simply aren't there. It would be generous to call this an average starting pitching staff. It's below average and has been all season.

I think it's best to assume the Cardinals will improve their staff.

The Reds should do the same. I guess it won't be with Haren though.