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View Full Version : Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus on Devin Mesoraco



dougdirt
07-09-2010, 03:09 PM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=11431



Devin Mesoraco, C, Reds(Double-A Carolina): 3-for-4, 2B, 3B, HR (8), 3 R, 2 RBI, K

With all of the great hitting performances we've had in the minors this year, how many people are aware that Mesoraco is hitting .313/.379/.613 across two levels? With 18 home runs in 290 at-bats, he's already doubled his previous season-high, and the 2007 first-round pick has shined behind the plate as well, gunning down 13 of 25 potential base stealers since his promotion to Double-A. All but off the radar coming into the year, he's back as one of the better catching prospects around.

GIDP
07-09-2010, 03:14 PM
Great that someone will give him his just due.

How many ABs do you guys give him at AA before you start thinking about maybe pushing him to AAA? He should probably stick out the year in AA, but if he continues his torrid hitting you have to at least consider it an option right?

dougdirt
07-09-2010, 03:20 PM
Great that someone will give him his just due.

How many ABs do you guys give him at AA before you start thinking about maybe pushing him to AAA? He should probably stick out the year in AA, but if he continues his torrid hitting you have to at least consider it an option right?

Perhaps August call up as the Bats push for the playoffs?

GIDP
07-09-2010, 03:25 PM
Perhaps August call up as the Bats push for the playoffs?
If I was answering the question that would make the most sense. They have done it through the last few years with guys like Yonder, and Bruce.

It would give him a chance to get used to the staff, and give them the ability to send him back to AA to start 2010 if they really wanted to.

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2010, 06:30 PM
I'd like to see Mez stay down for the entire season. If he continues to succeed, have him start at AAA next year.

TRF
07-09-2010, 08:03 PM
gotta agree with doug here. a late season call up rewards and challenges him a bit. Plus he gets to catch 1-2 guys he'll be working with next year.

Kingspoint
07-09-2010, 08:15 PM
I think Walt will leave him in Carolina through the rest of the season. Carolina has a chance to make the playoffs, while Louisville is 8 games behind Syracuse for the Wild Card spot. Not, that either of those scenarios should have anything to do with moving him up or keeping him down.

Both Leagues end on September 6th. So, Mesoraco can have more playing time at Carolina. Plus, he's been there for far too short a time.

AA is the best place for a Catcher to learn his craft. Mesoraco's fundamentals behind the plate are going to be finalized where he's at right now.

Joseph
07-09-2010, 08:16 PM
I know he was struggling early on in AA, how long has he been back on track?

dougdirt
07-09-2010, 08:29 PM
I know he was struggling early on in AA, how long has he been back on track?

He really only 'struggled' for about a week. He hit .284/.320/.522 in June. He only had 8 at bats in May for Carolina. In July he has hit .261/.346/.696.

sabometrics
07-09-2010, 08:30 PM
I know he was struggling early on in AA, how long has he been back on track?

He struggled like his first week in AA iirc, then he's been money ever since.

Joseph
07-09-2010, 08:50 PM
He struggled like his first week in AA iirc, then he's been money ever since.

Good to hear indeed.

Mario-Rijo
07-09-2010, 09:03 PM
I think Walt will leave him in Carolina through the rest of the season. Carolina has a chance to make the playoffs, while Louisville is 8 games behind Syracuse for the Wild Card spot. Not, that either of those scenarios should have anything to do with moving him up or keeping him down.

Both Leagues end on September 6th. So, Mesoraco can have more playing time at Carolina. Plus, he's been there for far too short a time.

AA is the best place for a Catcher to learn his craft. Mesoraco's fundamentals behind the plate are going to be finalized where he's at right now.

I agree leave him there for now and maybe even to start next season. I think he's finally in a comfortable place offensively allowing for him to concentrate on the finer points of catching for awhile.

Benihana
07-09-2010, 09:09 PM
I'd like to see Mez stay down for the entire season. If he continues to succeed, have him start at AAA next year.

Mez will start in AAA next year no matter what happens the rest of the year. I'd like to see him stay in AA the rest of the year. I hope he continues to mash...

Kingspoint
07-09-2010, 09:40 PM
There'd be nothing wrong with him starting next year in AA.

Sappelt can start in High-A next year. Mez can be moved up at the end of May, beginning of June.

RedLegsToday
07-10-2010, 09:46 AM
Any chance, if he continues to rake in AA, that the Reds bring him up to the majors after the minor league season ends? Just for a cup of coffee and a chance to see how the Big League catchers go about their business?

GIDP
07-10-2010, 09:52 AM
Any chance, if he continues to rake in AA, that the Reds bring him up to the majors after the minor league season ends? Just for a cup of coffee and a chance to see how the Big League catchers go about their business?

I would bet my life savings, all 450 dollars, that there is 0% chance that happens. that kind of stuff can be done in spring training.

Degenerate39
07-10-2010, 09:54 AM
Any chance, if he continues to rake in AA, that the Reds bring him up to the majors after the minor league season ends? Just for a cup of coffee and a chance to see how the Big League catchers go about their business?

I like that idea. Wouldn't hurt to give him a start or two would it?

membengal
07-10-2010, 10:10 AM
Re: Mes's year to this point, he's now at .950 in 100 or so plate appearances at AA after the 1.000+ in high A to start the season. That puts him around .975 for the season as a just turned 22-year-old. Hard to imagine there are too many catchers out there who have matched or exceeded that across the minors.

At the least, the Reds have taken a #1 draft pick that they took a lot of flak for and developed him enough to make him an interesting target for teams in trade talks. At the best, they have a potential long-term solution to help in the majors at some point in 2011 who will be cost effective for years.

Mes has easily been the massive bright spot for the minors this season, and I tip my hat to his coahces and to the work he as obviously put in. Nice to see.

lollipopcurve
07-10-2010, 10:26 AM
Any chance, if he continues to rake in AA, that the Reds bring him up to the majors after the minor league season ends?

If he continues to hit like this, there is a chance. But the fact that he's not on the 40-man puts the odds pretty long against it. The question in my mind is, who's behind Corky on the depth chart? I have to think the team would favor defensive skills if they run into an injury problem and need that 4th catcher down the stretch. Who's the best defensively among Castillo, Denove and Mesoraco?

GIDP
07-10-2010, 10:36 AM
Mesoraco has thrown out more at a higher percentage, then Wilkin then Denove. Im guessing Devin is the better of the 3.

IslandRed
07-10-2010, 11:02 AM
I'd like to see Mez stay down for the entire season. If he continues to succeed, have him start at AAA next year.

I agree with this. They've been more aggressive with some other guys, but Mez is a catcher and those guys have a lot of extra demands on them, so I lean towards patience here. Plenty for a catcher to learn at each level, even if the stats say he's kicking tail.

lollipopcurve
07-10-2010, 11:17 AM
Mesoraco has thrown out more at a higher percentage, then Wilkin then Denove. Im guessing Devin is the better of the 3.

That's encouraging, but what matters most are the receiving and game-calling skills.

Benihana
07-10-2010, 12:47 PM
There'd be nothing wrong with him starting next year in AA.

Sappelt can start in High-A next year. Mez can be moved up at the end of May, beginning of June.

Huh?

camisadelgolf
07-10-2010, 04:52 PM
I would bet my life savings, all 450 dollars, that there is 0% chance that happens. that kind of stuff can be done in spring training.
I'll take that bet.

GIDP
07-10-2010, 04:53 PM
I'll take that bet.

If it happens, you will never be broke because I will always owe you.

camisadelgolf
07-10-2010, 05:58 PM
If it happens, you will never be broke because I will always owe you.
I wouldn't want you to feel that way. It's really no problem for me to come by your place to pick up the money. Just PM me the address. ;)

Benihana
07-10-2010, 06:04 PM
Does anyone have any comps for a player like Mez, who spent three years in the minors never having put up an OPS better than .710 to suddenly explode like he has this year?

Just curious to see if there are other examples out there, and if so what their careers looked like after the monster season.

GIDP
07-10-2010, 06:16 PM
Does anyone have any comps for a player like Mez, who spent three years in the minors never having put up an OPS better than .710 to suddenly explode like he has this year?

Just curious to see if there are other examples out there, and if so what their careers looked like after the monster season.

Carlos Santana has had almost the exactly same minor league career. Not that they are the same type of hitter, but Santana didnt do much of anything until his age 22 season in A and AA ball.

membengal
07-10-2010, 06:17 PM
Also, if you are looking for comps, factor in two years of thumb injuries for Mes prior to this.

The Reds have, per a Fay or Sheldon tweet last night.

membengal
07-16-2010, 07:53 AM
Mes now at .301/.354/.637 for a .991 OPS in 113 ABs at AA since his call-up. 9 HR, 21 RBI, 29 R, 9 doubles and 1 triple. 1 SB, just because.

At A ball prior to his call-up, he was .335/.414/.620 for a 1.035 OPS in 158 ABs. 10 HR, 31 RBI, 24 R, 11 doubles, 2 triples. 2 SB, just because.

If his success at AA continues anywhere close to where he is now, I am moving him up my prospect list ahead of a certain Cuban import. Catchers who can hit, and hit with power, and defend, are rare, rare things. And, at 22, maybe the Reds have one that can.

This is as exciting a development from a minor leaguer in the Reds system at a position of need as I can remember in a long, long time.

TheNext44
07-16-2010, 08:31 AM
Kudus to Doug for apperaing to be right about a prospect when he seemed to be the only one defending his position... Again. (and to anyone else who agreed without him, but I really don't remember anyone else)

Mario-Rijo
07-16-2010, 08:59 AM
Kudus to Doug for apperaing to be right about a prospect when he seemed to be the only one defending his position... Again. (and to anyone else who agreed without him, but I really don't remember anyone else)

Maybe you have me on ignore then.

TheNext44
07-16-2010, 09:30 AM
Maybe you have me on ignore then.

nope. Just a bad memory. Kudus to you too. :)

I know there were some, I just couldn't remember who they were. I just know I was not one of them..

membengal
07-16-2010, 10:52 AM
If you want a refresher on the scope of a lot of the Mes talk, here's a link to a search on the minors forum that gets you the prime threads:

http://www.redszone.com/forums/search.php?searchid=432550

GIDP
07-16-2010, 10:57 AM
Is he still retiring?

edabbs44
07-16-2010, 10:59 AM
Very cool stuff on him. Always great to see stuff like this.

GIDP
07-16-2010, 11:05 AM
haha one thread topic was Mesoraco vs. Mitch Canham.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=canham001mit

membengal
07-16-2010, 11:20 AM
There was some more interesting chatter around page six of this thread when Mes was only ranked the 30th best prospect in the system at the end of 2009:

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=79392

nemesis
07-16-2010, 11:26 AM
Absolutely membengal. If he continues this pace throughout the rest of this season, he has to be the systems #1 prospect. He also has to be the 3rd best rated catcher left in the minors behind Montero, who'll probably end up a DH and Arencibia who is 24 and is putting up better #'s at AAA than Mez is at both levels combined. ( http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=&sid=t400&t=p_pbp&pid=450317 )... A lot of people overlook value of position. Catchers and SS are the two hardest positions to develop in the Minors. They are the two most demanding positions on the field defensively and if you can get anything out of them offensively, that seems to be a bonus. Mez has the rare chance of being both. A solid defensive catcher who could just put up some strong #4 in the lineup type numbers in a couple years playing half his games in GABP.

nemesis
07-16-2010, 11:32 AM
Also it will be interesting to see how he hold up over the last 50 games or so. He will reach his career high in AB's in about 4 games and career high in games caught by the first week of August. I wonder if he will hit a fatigue factor as a result. Either which way, I see him probably getting a look see in the AFL to see how he fairs against top end prospects like himself.

lollipopcurve
07-16-2010, 11:34 AM
I think it's fair to say no one predicted the kind of breakout we're seeing. A couple lessons probably gleanable from what's happened....

Doug's insistence on peripherals was on target in this case.

If your thumbs hurt, it's hard to catch and it's hard to hit.

GIDP
07-16-2010, 11:39 AM
There was some more interesting chatter around page six of this thread when Mes was only ranked the 30th best prospect in the system at the end of 2009:

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=79392

Also note some of the Travis Wood discussion.

JKam
07-16-2010, 12:30 PM
The NL's best offense could get better next season if Mes is ready and able to produce.

dougdirt
07-16-2010, 03:00 PM
Absolutely membengal. If he continues this pace throughout the rest of this season, he has to be the systems #1 prospect. He also has to be the 3rd best rated catcher left in the minors behind Montero, who'll probably end up a DH and Arencibia who is 24 and is putting up better #'s at AAA than Mez is at both levels combined. ( http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=&sid=t400&t=p_pbp&pid=450317 )... A lot of people overlook value of position. Catchers and SS are the two hardest positions to develop in the Minors. They are the two most demanding positions on the field defensively and if you can get anything out of them offensively, that seems to be a bonus. Mez has the rare chance of being both. A solid defensive catcher who could just put up some strong #4 in the lineup type numbers in a couple years playing half his games in GABP.
I would take Mesoraco over Arencibia without thinking about it. Defense baby. Arencibia isn't a good defender at all. Lots of power, very questionable plate discipline and the league he is playing in is incredibly hitter friendly. The power is legit, he has killed it wherever he has ever played. Catcher is an interesting position right now to rank in the minors.