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corkedbat
07-09-2010, 11:10 PM
I know, I know - this has been a great season so far and Dusty deserves a lot of credit, but moves like leaving Leake in too long is beyond inexcusable. Hey great, you wanna get the kid a complete game?
Limit it to two, three straight baserunners at the most. So you don't want to bring Cordero in until its a save situation? Then have Rhodes or another fres arm ready in case what happened...happened.

This team can't afford to give leads/games like this away. No reason for this. at all.

cincrazy
07-09-2010, 11:14 PM
You pay your closer $13 million a year to close out games. Blaming Dusty for this loss is short-sighted. Point your finger at the player giving up the homer.

klw
07-09-2010, 11:15 PM
Glad to know Jocketty and the whole crew to watch this one up close.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 11:16 PM
Glad to know Jocketty and the whole crew to watch this one up close.

Absolutely. I hope holding onto Mesorasco helps them sleep well.

dsmith421
07-09-2010, 11:16 PM
You pay your closer $13 million a year to close out games.

It looks like the majority of that salary gets plowed directly into Buskin.

Brutus
07-09-2010, 11:17 PM
Couldn't this have been contained to the game thread?

lollipopcurve
07-09-2010, 11:21 PM
Blaming Dusty for this loss is short-sighted.

I was posting back in April that Cordero was being overused. He simply does not have the stuff now that he's used to having.

There is no question that Baker has mishandled the back of the bullpen this year.
Remember his statement, "We're trying to win as many games as we can early"? That's what had him pedal to the metal and leaning on Cordero to pitch at a unsustainable pace through the first couple months of the year. Coco's been leaking oil for weeks, and he's fried, physically and, now, mentally.

I appreciate Dusty's significant strengths. But he has only 1 way of handling the end of ballgames, and it costs the team.

klw
07-09-2010, 11:21 PM
Absolutely. I hope holding onto Mesorasco helps them sleep well.

Not getting Lee had nothing to do with this.

Redhook
07-09-2010, 11:21 PM
You pay your closer $13 million a year to close out games. Blaming Dusty for this loss is short-sighted. Point your finger at the player giving up the homer.

No. With a 6-run lead you take out your rookie pitcher who you're trying to limit for the rest of the season. Who cares if he gets a complete game? I'd rather have him stronger later in the year and lessen his chance of injury. Dusty is an idiot. He really is. I just don't know how else to describe him.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 11:23 PM
Not getting Lee had nothing to do with this.

Not directly, no. But we're looking--Christmas Carol-like--at August and September without an ace transfusion. Leake was poor, so was Cordero, so was Rhodes. And they're the good ones.

savafan
07-09-2010, 11:28 PM
Did I just get demoted to the Sun Deck and nobody told me?

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2010, 11:30 PM
Not directly, no. But we're looking--Christmas Carol-like--at August and September without an ace transfusion. Leake was poor, so was Cordero, so was Rhodes. And they're the good ones.

Leake was not poor. Dude pitched stellar through 8 innings with 1 ER. Dusty and his obsession with letting pitchers finish innings or being too afraid to pull pitchers when they get into trouble was the problem here.

cincrazy
07-09-2010, 11:31 PM
No. With a 6-run lead you take out your rookie pitcher who you're trying to limit for the rest of the season. Who cares if he gets a complete game? I'd rather have him stronger later in the year and lessen his chance of injury. Dusty is an idiot. He really is. I just don't know how else to describe him.

83 pitches. 83 non-stress pitches through 8 innings. He wasn't going into the 9th having thrown 100 pitches. This isn't Dusty's fault. Period. End of discussion.

cincrazy
07-09-2010, 11:32 PM
I'm making a Dan Gilbert-like guarantee: the Reds are winning tomorrow against Halladay. Take it to the bank.

oneupper
07-09-2010, 11:34 PM
I'm making a Dan Gilbert-like guarantee: the Reds are winning tomorrow against Halladay. Take it to the bank.

I wish you had a different username. :)

redsfandan
07-09-2010, 11:34 PM
83 pitches. 83 non-stress pitches through 8 innings. He wasn't going into the 9th having thrown 100 pitches. This isn't Dusty's fault. Period. End of discussion.
When did the bullpen start to get warmed up?

RBA
07-09-2010, 11:36 PM
:thumbdown on thread

cincrazy
07-09-2010, 11:37 PM
I'm making a Dan Gilbert-like guarantee: the Reds are winning tomorrow against Halladay. Take it to the bank.

My only request after nailing this prediction is that this post gets moved to the Predictions Archives, so that at the end of the season everyone can look back and say "WOW, CINCRAZY REALLY NAILED THAT!"

;)

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 11:40 PM
Leake was not poor. Dude pitched stellar through 8 innings with 1 ER. Dusty and his obsession with letting pitchers finish innings or being too afraid to pull pitchers when they get into trouble was the problem here.

Dusty was the bigger problem, but Leake came apart at the seams there in the ninth. He wasn't even up to 100 pitches, either.

lollipopcurve
07-09-2010, 11:40 PM
When did the bullpen start to get warmed up?

I think they showed Cordero start to lob a little after Howard or Werth got on.

Nothing happening at the start of the inning. No excuse for that. Rhodes or Bray should have been ready for Dobbs.

TheNext44
07-09-2010, 11:41 PM
Not directly, no. But we're looking--Christmas Carol-like--at August and September without an ace transfusion. Leake was poor, so was Cordero, so was Rhodes. And they're the good ones.

Leake was outstanding, just asked to go too deep by his manager. This was one of his best games of the year until the 9th.

But something does need to get done about the closer. Been saying it all year.

flyer85
07-09-2010, 11:41 PM
I'm not really sure it is on Dusty. My concern is that Rhodes is seriously overworked and due for some regressing to the mean. Cordero has been overworked as well.

With their age I doubt either can continue on their current pace

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 11:42 PM
The lesson here is that rookies are never "just cruising along." They're always a heartbeat away from a meltdown. Dusty should have anticipated that.

lollipopcurve
07-09-2010, 11:43 PM
Dusty was the bigger problem, but Leake came apart at the seams there in the ninth. He wasn't even up to 100 pitches, either.

Give it a rest.

He jammed Howard, who blooped a ball down the left field line. He jammed Werth, who barely found a hole between short and third. Made very good pitches to both guys -- Phils were lucky the game wasn't over.

TheNext44
07-09-2010, 11:44 PM
The lesson here is that rookies are never "just cruising along." They're always a heartbeat away from a meltdown. Dusty should have anticipated that.

All pitchers after around 75 pitches are a heartbeat away from a meltdown. And Dusty does know that, but rolled the dice anyway, which is worse.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2010, 11:44 PM
All pitchers after around 75 pitches are a heartbeat away from a meltdown. And Dusty does know that, but rolled the dice anyway, which is worse.

Arroyo in that situation closes the door. You know it; I know it.

Kids melt down. It's in their wiring.

OnBaseMachine
07-09-2010, 11:45 PM
I had no problem sending Leake back out for the 9th. But he should have been pulled after Howard's single. There's really no excuse for not having Bray or Rhodes in there to face Dobbs.

TheNext44
07-09-2010, 11:46 PM
:thumbdown on thread

Actually threads like this are very cathartic. They are like the letters you write to your ex and then throw away before you send them. I am sure next week we will all look at what we wrote and laugh and cringe at how we overreacted.

flyer85
07-09-2010, 11:46 PM
I had no problem sending Leake back out for the 9th. But he should have been pulled after Howard's single. There's really no excuse for not having Bray or Rhodes in there to face Dobbs.
Bray should have came out for the 10th. There is no way Rhodes will keep pitching well unless they start managing his innings.

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2010, 11:47 PM
Dusty was the bigger problem, but Leake came apart at the seams there in the ninth. He wasn't even up to 100 pitches, either.

Nah, when batters have seen you 5 times...it doesn't really matter what the pitch count is...they're going to start to get better swings on you. That's true of 98% of pitchers. Leake should have been on a short leash and he wasn't and the team is paying for it.

savafan
07-09-2010, 11:48 PM
Arroyo in that situation closes the door. You know it; I know it.

Kids melt down. It's in their wiring.

No FCB, they don't know it. Just look at the talk about wanting to dump Arroyo, who has been this team's best pitcher during his tenure here.

flyer85
07-09-2010, 11:51 PM
the biggest issue I have with Dusty is he doesn't seem to have a long term plan. Each game is managed in isolation. Now the Reds have gotten to the break with the aging back of the bullpen seriously overworked.

Tony Cloninger
07-09-2010, 11:51 PM
Cordero was up after the Howard hit....trouble is...Werth swung at the 1st pitch Leake threw. Cairo was playing on the line....if he is off of it....he might get it. This game got away from them...just like in ATL. AAAA players did the damage after Werth.....just like in ATL.

lollipopcurve
07-09-2010, 11:55 PM
the biggest issue I have with Dusty is he doesn't seem to have a long term plan. Each game is managed in isolation. Now the Reds have gotten to the break with the aging back of the bullpen seriously overworked.

I agree with this. And I would say he's run Cabrera into the ground, and is pushing it on Rolen and Phillips, both of whom will not get the 3-day break. There's a lot of hot baseball yet to be played.

PuffyPig
07-10-2010, 12:00 AM
Posters try to explain a 6 run lead meltdown and blame someoine, but the fact of the amtter is, there is so much randomness in baseball, that the chances of losing a 6 run lead is so poor that a manager likely should anticpate it.

Look at happens, you don't give up 6 runs in an inning without some bad luck.

If Dobbs hits in to a DP no one blinks at this game.

It's a stinging loss in an importany game.

But it's one game at the end of the day.

We survived a similiar loss once before this year. Life will go on.

We are still 2 up. Lets get 'em tomorrow.

flyer85
07-10-2010, 12:03 AM
yep, _ _ it happens, and it sure did tonight.

lollipopcurve
07-10-2010, 12:04 AM
Posters try to explain a 6 run lead meltdown and blame someoine, but the fact of the amtter is, there is so much randomness in baseball, that the chances of losing a 6 run lead is so poor that a manager likely should anticpate it.

Look at happens, you don't give up 6 runs in an inning without some bad luck.

There was definitely bad luck, and there was definitely inaction on the part of the manager to minimize the likelihood that Philly would climb back in the game. No one was warming to start the inning, and they should have had a lefty ready for Howard (if the first two reached) and, at the very least, for Dobbs. If Manuel pinch hits Ransom for Dobbs, he doesn't have him to pinch hit for the pitcher later in the inning.

Falls City Beer
07-10-2010, 12:06 AM
There was definitely bad luck, and there was definitely inaction on the part of the manager to minimize the likelihood that Philly would climb back in the game. No one was warming to start the inning, and they should have had a lefty up for Howard (if the first two reached) and for Dobbs.

Well, if you blow a 6 run lead once in a season, you'd think you'd have the presence of mind not to let it happen again.

lollipopcurve
07-10-2010, 12:07 AM
Well, if you blow a 6 run lead once in a season, you'd think you'd have the presence of mind not to let it happen again.

I was going to say the same thing. If it happens twice, it should tell you that something may be amiss.

flyer85
07-10-2010, 12:10 AM
Dusty doesn't trust his pen, mostly with good reason. There was no bridge between Leake and Cordero in a 6 run game highlights that fact.

Falls City Beer
07-10-2010, 12:10 AM
I'm not one to heap blame on a manager (largely because I don't think they have much impact either way), but after this, I really think it's time for Dusty to go.

This was an entirely preventable loss. No room for these kinds of mistakes.

membengal
07-10-2010, 12:13 AM
Not Dusty's fault directly. Lot of lucky hits off Leake in the 9th. Happens.

Cordero two out walk to put the tying run at the plate was the problem. Bad series of pitches, Cordero was up 1-2 in that count too.

Bad loss. Hopefully this too will pass.

Or not. Baseball is a difficult game to figure.

lollipopcurve
07-10-2010, 12:14 AM
Dusty doesn't trust his pen, mostly with good reason.

Ondrusek's throwing very well. Bray looked dominant against 2 lefties last night. Owings has been good recently. Rhodes has been money, and Masset's getting better.

I agree that he doesn't trust certain guys in the pen. It's a shortcoming of his, in my opinion. If he showed more confidence in more guys in more critical situations, some would rise to the occasion, and the pen would work more smoothly over the long haul.

flyer85
07-10-2010, 12:16 AM
Dusty doesn't trust young guys. He is going to live or die with Rhodes, Cordero, Cabrera, etc. He will only make changes long after it is obvious to everyone else.

Falls City Beer
07-10-2010, 12:18 AM
Dusty doesn't trust young guys. He is going to live or die with Rhodes, Cordero, Cabrera, etc. He will only make changes long after it is obvious to everyone else.

I don't know; he let Leake start the ninth and give up 5 runs. If that's not too much faith in youth, I don't know what is. If I'm managing, Leake's gone after the first hitter reaches.

savafan
07-10-2010, 12:20 AM
I was going to say the same thing. If it happens twice, it should tell you that something may be amiss.

Too bad there's not a stat that predicts team luck.

reds1869
07-10-2010, 12:21 AM
I was just praising Dusty this morning; last time I do that for a while! The loss is not entirely his fault, but he certainly didn't push the right buttons tonight. When the second batter reached in the ninth I was screaming "pull the kid, Dusty!" I usually enjoy being right, but not when it involves a Reds loss.

fearofpopvol1
07-10-2010, 12:22 AM
I don't know; he let Leake start the ninth and give up 5 runs. If that's not too much faith in youth, I don't know what is. If I'm managing, Leake's gone after the first hitter reaches.

That's never been his thing. He has this weird obsession with letting pitchers pitch through entire innings and/or then pulling the pitcher after they have gotten into insurmountable trouble. I cannot for the life of me understand why he does this.

flyer85
07-10-2010, 12:23 AM
I don't know; he let Leake start the ninth and give up 5 runs. If that's not too much faith in youth, I don't know what is.
It's because he trusts Ondrusek, Smith, Bray, Maseet, etc even less. He can't pitch Rhodes and Cordero every day ... but I bet he'd like to.

membengal
07-10-2010, 12:30 AM
Cordero has been well rested this week, and was rested for tonite.

Cordero failed. He had two outs to get, and no one on, against the AAA part of the Philly line-up. He was 1-2 on the batter before the immortal Cody Ransom, and walked him.

I just don't know that Dusty is the issue in this game, for what it's worth. Bad luck for Leake in the 9th, and then Cordero screwed up.

It's sad, but it happens. Hopefully the team moves on from this quicker than this board and Reds fans in general will.

flyer85
07-10-2010, 12:32 AM
Cordero has been well rested this week, and was rested for tonite.

Cordero failed.he is on a pace to pitch the most innings since 2003 and he is getting up there in years.

membengal
07-10-2010, 12:35 AM
he is on a pace to pitch the most innings since 2003 and he is getting up there in years.

Right. He was used a ton earlier this season, I was saying that then. Of late that's not been the case. It certainly wasn't the case tonite. Cordero was not up last night, and should have been more than ready to do his job. That's on Cordero.

flyer85
07-10-2010, 12:42 AM
Right. He was used a ton earlier this season, I was saying that then. Of late that's not been the case. It certainly wasn't the case tonite. Cordero was not up last night, and should have been more than ready to do his job. That's on Cordero.not defending Cordero's poor outing. Dusty knows he has overworked the back end of the pen and I am sure he wants to use them less but he can't help himself.

membengal
07-10-2010, 12:45 AM
He has been using Cordero less. Markedly.

The damage, if there was some done, was done several months ago.

At any rate, Cordero blew this one, through and through.

If people want hop on Walt for not making a deal, hop on him for not targeting and getting, say, an Aardsma from Seattle to give the team a closing option other than Cordero.

flyer85
07-10-2010, 12:47 AM
He has been using Cordero less. Markedly.

The damage, if there was some done, was done several months ago.

At any rate, Cordero blew this one, through and through.

Cordero blew the game not because he has been overworked but because he really isn't that good. To have any chance to get the most out of him he needs to pitch less.

membengal
07-10-2010, 12:49 AM
Cordero blew the game not because he has been overworked but because he really isn't that good. To have any chance to get the most out of him he needs to pitch less.

Right. He has been pitching less.

He's not very good? Not gonna argue that. But Walt needs to give Dusty other options at the back end then.

And soon.

savafan
07-10-2010, 12:50 AM
Cordero blew the game not because he has been overworked but because he really isn't that good. To have any chance to get the most out of him he needs to pitch less.

I was going to mount an argument against this, but I looked at the stats, and Cordero really has been pretty bad, lucky, but bad since joining the Reds.

Falls City Beer
07-10-2010, 12:53 AM
I was going to mount an argument against this, but I looked at the stats, and Cordero really has been pretty bad, lucky, but bad since joining the Reds.

His walk rate for a closer is atrocious. Mitch Williams and he occasionally meet up for drinks I hear.

flyer85
07-10-2010, 12:54 AM
I was going to mount an argument against this, but I looked at the stats, and Cordero really has been pretty bad, lucky, but bad since joining the Reds.as a closer he is middle of the pack at best, which outside of the one season in Milwaukee, that is who he has always been. Command has always been iffy.

savafan
07-10-2010, 12:58 AM
as a closer he is middle of the pack at best, which outside of the one season in Milwaukee, that is who he has always been. Command has always been iffy.

Yeah, 2007 seems to be an aberration. 2002 was similar, but he wasn't the closer the entire season that year, so less pressure. He really did seem to play for that next contract, that the Reds were willing to give him.

redsfandan
07-10-2010, 01:04 AM
If people want hop on Walt for not making a deal, hop on him for not targeting and getting, say, an Aardsma from Seattle to give the team a closing option other than Cordero.
I just don't see it happening. Walt trades for a closer and then does what with Cordero?

membengal
07-10-2010, 01:09 AM
Still closes. An Aardsma goes into set-up and is there as, I said, a potential closing option.

Right now, the team has no closing options other than Cordero that Dusty will trust. So, you need to give Dusty some other options, and soon, if Cordero continues to show the wear of what may be arguably over-use early in the season, or maybe just age slowing him down a bit.

corkedbat
07-10-2010, 01:25 AM
I'll apologize for the title of the thread. I was really pi$$ed at the time and it seems much more mean-spirited now than it did. I stand by my original post though.

No way should he have left Leake in past the second man to reach base and he should have had someone else ready along with Cordero. Dusty makes thses random unnecessary blunders and they just infuriate me. I think the margin for this team is paper-thin as is and can't afford losses like this.

redsfandan
07-10-2010, 01:27 AM
Still closes. An Aardsma goes into set-up and is there as, I said, a potential closing option.

Right now, the team has no closing options other than Cordero that Dusty will trust. So, you need to give Dusty some other options, and soon, if Cordero continues to show the wear of what may be arguably over-use early in the season, or maybe just age slowing him down a bit.
Can we trade to get Sweet Lou back too? Since Lou was willing to use more than one guy to close. But Dusty...

Hoosier Red
07-10-2010, 01:34 AM
I was going to say the same thing. If it happens twice, it should tell you that something may be amiss.

Is Tony Larussa feeling the heat? The same thing happened to the Cards two nights ago.
It happens. At a certain point you just accept that you're not going to win every game and some losses will look worse than others but in the end they're just one loss.

TheNext44
07-10-2010, 01:50 AM
I am not sure exactly what is wrong with Cordero, but I have suspicion it involves doughnuts...


http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_bxEuF4LrxkU/ShyxOi7eNAI/AAAAAAAABzw/8IswQsPc6xY/s400/scan-2009-Topps-563-FranciscoCordero.jpg

http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/multimedia/photo_gallery/0909/mlb.fantasy.studs.duds.week22/images/francisco-cordero.jpg

savafan
07-10-2010, 01:51 AM
It's called the middle age spread.

TheNext44
07-10-2010, 01:57 AM
It's called the middle age spread.

Or in my case, the top, middle and bottom spread. :cool:

TheNext44
07-10-2010, 02:00 AM
One thing to consider about the 85 pitch count. It was in the 9th inning. An 85 pitch count in the 9th is like a 100 pitch count in the 7th. The pitcher has to warm up each time in between innings, and those throws, while not as strenuous as those in the game, count too. Also every time a pitcher has to sit down, cool off and then warm up again, it's added stress to his arm.

Matt700wlw
07-10-2010, 02:04 AM
Dusty goofed. I wouldn't say he's the reason they lost.

The Operator
07-10-2010, 02:08 AM
At this point I'm not even comfortable with Dusty having another "option" to close out games, such as Aardsma. He needs a new closer, period.

And with Dusty, unless Walt straight up tells him he has to use someone else as the closer, it's going to be Cordero, or Walt's going to have to acquire someone else who already is a closer. Didn't I read recently that Soria may be available? Probably not. But Walt needs to start making calls.

Before this season I was a big Cordero supporter. But this guy just blew his 6th save and we aren't even to the All Star break, granted we are close, but still. And it's not like they were all in 1-run games. He's blown some nice leads. 6 blown saves at the break? That's enough to make Danny Graves cringe. Think about that for a second. That is some serious failure.

This is making me nauseous. The Reds have an amazing chance to contend and yet they have two serious flaws. No TOR starter and the back end of the bullpen is a disaster. Two things that, should The Reds get to the playoffs, most assuredly will get them swept in the first round.

TheNext44
07-10-2010, 02:29 AM
At this point I'm not even comfortable with Dusty having another "option" to close out games, such as Aardsma. He needs a new closer, period.

And with Dusty, unless Walt straight up tells him he has to use someone else as the closer, it's going to be Cordero, or Walt's going to have to acquire someone else who already is a closer. Didn't I read recently that Soria may be available? Probably not. But Walt needs to start making calls.

Before this season I was a big Cordero supporter. But this guy just blew his 6th save and we aren't even to the All Star break, granted we are close, but still. And it's not like they were all in 1-run games. He's blown some nice leads. 6 blown saves at the break? That's enough to make Danny Graves cringe. Think about that for a second. That is some serious failure.

This is making me nauseous. The Reds have an amazing chance to contend and yet they have two serious flaws. No TOR starter and the back end of the bullpen is a disaster. Two things that, should The Reds get to the playoffs, most assuredly will get them swept in the first round.

I agree that the only way the Reds will have a new closer is if Cordero is off the team. I can't see that happening without the Reds eating his entire contract, which is very unlikely. I think the Reds are stuck with him.

redsfandan
07-10-2010, 02:43 AM
I agree that the only way the Reds will have a new closer is if Cordero is off the team. I can't see that happening without the Reds eating his entire contract, which is very unlikely. I think the Reds are stuck with him.
Yep, I don't see that changing either. We just have to hope for reinforcements so that we don't continue to have a few relievers taking on alot of the work.

Phhhl
07-10-2010, 03:32 AM
You can't really pin this one on Dusty. A chance for an easy complete game is too tempting to ignore at this point in the season. I don't care who is pitching and what his circumstance is, the bullpen was in dire need of rest. This pen has been taxed to the limit all season long, and this certainly looked like a slam dunk win without any kind of stress. Leake had the Phillies eating out of his hand as late as the first out of the 9th inning. His pitch count was extraordinarily low at such a late point in the game, so I don't blame Dusty at all for stretching him out a little.

The pinch hitter had no business drilling an opposite field homer off of Cordero or any other pitcher in baseball who could lob a strike in that particular situation, so it was a freak play that a rational baseball fan might dismiss.

We have a nice two game lead and a reason to be pissed facing Halladay tomorrow. I would take that 10 times out of 5 chances if you had asked me going into the 2010 season. I will trust this team to keep cool under pressure, as it has all season long.

Captain Hook
07-10-2010, 04:10 AM
Dusty goofed. I wouldn't say he's the reason they lost.

I agree.It was a small goof but in the end it took our closer giving up a 2 run bomb in the 9th for the game to be tied up.Then in the 10th our best RP gave up another 2 run bombs to loose it.It's too bad that things got to the point that Cordero had to come into the game with just a 2 run lead but that's a winning situation that just didn't work out this time.

*BaseClogger*
07-10-2010, 04:25 AM
Before this season I was a big Cordero supporter. But this guy just blew his 6th save and we aren't even to the All Star break, granted we are close, but still. And it's not like they were all in 1-run games. He's blown some nice leads. 6 blown saves at the break? That's enough to make Danny Graves cringe. Think about that for a second. That is some serious failure.

Converting 24 out of 30 save opportunities gives Cordero a 80% save rate. The MLB rate for 2010 is 68%. Yeah, the rate is higher for closers, especially $12M ones, but 80% isn't that bad...

TheNext44
07-10-2010, 04:46 AM
Converting 24 out of 30 save opportunities gives Cordero a 80% save rate. The MLB rate for 2010 is 68%. Yeah, the rate is higher for closers, especially $12M ones, but 80% isn't that bad...

That stat is for all relievers, so it includes every lead change when a reliever is in. So a guy who gives up a run in the 6th to give up a lead, gets a blown save, even when there was no chance he could get one.

But anyway, the save is such a damaged stat that it holds very little meaning these days. And Cordero's peripherals are pretty bad this year.

His biggest problem is that he is lacking an out pitch. Most relievers live and die by a strong out pitch. For years it was Cordero's fastball. But now it's not working like it used to, as evident by his refusal to pitch inside. Unless he learns a new pitch, he's only going to get worse, IMO.

*BaseClogger*
07-10-2010, 05:05 AM
That stat is for all relievers, so it includes every lead change when a reliever is in. So a guy who gives up a run in the 6th to give up a lead, gets a blown save, even when there was no chance he could get one.

I know.

I kinda view 80% as the effective cutoff line for closers, kinda like an arbitrary watermark of .350 OBP for your leadoff hitter. So he's teetering. On the whole, I think Cordero has been okay--not bad but not good--at doing his job. I might not be encouraged about his outlook for the second half, but so far he has been nails for the Reds in his two and a half seasons...

Topcat
07-10-2010, 06:06 AM
I know.

I kinda view 80% as the effective cutoff line for closers, kinda like an arbitrary watermark of .350 OBP for your leadoff hitter. So he's teetering. On the whole, I think Cordero has been okay--not bad but not good--at doing his job. I might not be encouraged about his outlook for the second half, but so far he has been nails for the Reds in his two and a half seasons...

Wow stop making sense during a few peoples melt down :D:eek::thumbup:

nate
07-10-2010, 09:02 AM
I think it's a team loss.

Leake failed to keep men off base.

Dusty failed to get Leake out when he started allowing baserunners.

Cordero failed to shut it down in the ninth.

The offense failed to score any runs in the tenth.

Rhodes failed to prevent scoring in the tenth.

membengal
07-10-2010, 10:01 AM
And didn't the offense have plenty of more chances to put up more than 7? Seems like the Reds wasted a lot of scoring opporturnities too, despite the 7 runs. 0 for 6 from the second place hitter in the line-up didn't help, certainly.

RFS62
07-10-2010, 10:02 AM
Up to the 9th, that was one of the best performances of Leake's career. He was breezing, hiting his spots and looked totally in control.

In the 9th, they weren't squaring up on him until the home run. And that was a good at-bat.

Sometimes, a veteran manager leaves a rookie in there in tough spots so he'll learn how to deal with the pressure. It's part of the process of making a pitcher tough. You have to be in pressure situations to learn how to deal with the emotions and mental pressure.

It was still a great outing. I don't blame Dusty for leaving him in as long as he did. The pitch count wasn't an issue. He was still hitting his spots. He got beat inside in a tough at-bat.

membengal
07-10-2010, 10:04 AM
Up to the 9th, that was one of the best performances of Leake's career. He was breezing, hiting his spots and looked totally in control.

In the 9th, they weren't squaring up on him until the home run. And that was a good at-bat.

Sometimes, a veteran manager leaves a rookie in there in tough spots so he'll learn how to deal with the pressure. It's part of the process of making a pitcher tough. You have to be in pressure situations to learn how to deal with the emotions and mental pressure.

It was still a great outing. I don't blame Dusty for leaving him in as long as he did. The pitch count wasn't an issue. He was still hitting his spots. He got beat inside in a tough at-bat.

Pretty much in agreement with this.

Still should have been okay, as there was a margin for error, if Cordero doesn't walk a guy with two outs and ahead 1-2 in the count to bring the tying run to the plate.

Frustrating loss, certainly. Devastating loss? I hope not. Could be, I suppose, but I hope not.

Dusty's fault? Not seeing it still.

_Sir_Charles_
07-10-2010, 10:09 AM
Leake had a bad inning. It happens.
Cordero had a bad inning. It happens. (more often this season than usually)
Rhodes had a bad inning. It happens.
Dusty made an error in judgment. It happens.
Phillies got a TON of breaks down the stretch. It happens.

The uproar here is ridiculously overblown. It happens.

Bottom line. It's one loss. We play a new game tomorrow. We're still in first place with a 2 game lead. I'm pretty sure the sky isn't falling.

_Sir_Charles_
07-10-2010, 10:11 AM
Up to the 9th, that was one of the best performances of Leake's career. He was breezing, hiting his spots and looked totally in control.

In the 9th, they weren't squaring up on him until the home run. And that was a good at-bat.

Sometimes, a veteran manager leaves a rookie in there in tough spots so he'll learn how to deal with the pressure. It's part of the process of making a pitcher tough. You have to be in pressure situations to learn how to deal with the emotions and mental pressure.

It was still a great outing. I don't blame Dusty for leaving him in as long as he did. The pitch count wasn't an issue. He was still hitting his spots. He got beat inside in a tough at-bat.

Nice post. Agreed 100%

Falls City Beer
07-10-2010, 10:15 AM
Deltachi8 swooped in and nailed it, imo: this team has squeezed every last drop of production from its talent; now the regression comes; the charmed days are over.

The FO can address it, or they can cross their fingers. They probably saw their shot at a pennant fly in to Dallas Fort Worth, but they still have a shot at the postseason. Should they make the sacrifices necessary to do only that? I'm on the fence about it. Maybe it would be better to save those trading chips till the offseason.

Sea Ray
07-10-2010, 10:19 AM
I know, I know - this has been a great season so far and Dusty deserves a lot of credit, but moves like leaving Leake in too long is beyond inexcusable. Hey great, you wanna get the kid a complete game?
Limit it to two, three straight baserunners at the most. So you don't want to bring Cordero in until its a save situation? Then have Rhodes or another fres arm ready in case what happened...happened.

This team can't afford to give leads/games like this away. No reason for this. at all.

How does Dusty get the blame for leaving in a dominant starter that had 83 pitches and a 6 run lead? He'd have been called an idiot if he didn't leave him in

redsfandan
07-10-2010, 10:21 AM
Up to the 9th, that was one of the best performances of Leake's career. He was breezing, hiting his spots and looked totally in control.

In the 9th, they weren't squaring up on him until the home run. And that was a good at-bat.

Sometimes, a veteran manager leaves a rookie in there in tough spots so he'll learn how to deal with the pressure. It's part of the process of making a pitcher tough. You have to be in pressure situations to learn how to deal with the emotions and mental pressure.

It was still a great outing. I don't blame Dusty for leaving him in as long as he did. The pitch count wasn't an issue. He was still hitting his spots. He got beat inside in a tough at-bat.
Bringing him back out there to start the 9th is one thing. Letting the Phillies get 5 straight hits off of him is another. Sorry guys but, imo, he was kept in too long. He had allowed 4 hits in all of the previous 8 innings. I'm not sure I'd say he was still hitting his spots when the Phillies turned it into batting practice.

jojo
07-10-2010, 10:25 AM
Cordero blew the game not because he has been overworked but because he really isn't that good. To have any chance to get the most out of him he needs to pitch less.

This is pretty much it. Cordero isn't a high leverage arm anymore. He's below average for a reliever from a peripheral standpoint.


Cordero is more of a high paid arm than a high leverage arm at this point... His make 'em miss ability has tracked downward every year since his career year with the brewers in '07. His K/9 is currently below league average for a reliever (his: 7.65; NL: 8.0) and his walk rate is higher than league average (his: 4.50; NL: 3.84).

He hasn't fallen off of a cliff, but he is no longer a war hammer either....

redsfandan
07-10-2010, 10:27 AM
This is pretty much it. Cordero isn't a high leverage arm anymore. He's below average for a reliever from a peripheral standpoint.
Try to tell that to Dusty.

Tony Cloninger
07-10-2010, 10:30 AM
FCB....you keep waiting for that to happen and it has not yet......but every time there is a game like this....you have the End is Near mantra out. I imagine Cardinal fans are wishing the same thing....even though they have the same problems.

Falls City Beer
07-10-2010, 10:40 AM
FCB....you keep waiting for that to happen and it has not yet......but every time there is a game like this....you have the End is Near mantra out. I imagine Cardinal fans are wishing the same thing....even though they have the same problems.

Except that the Cardinals have three starters they can count on for 33 starts of @ 3.00 ERA. It's undeniable that the Cards are better suited for a 6 month season. I've said that all season. This game doesn't change that thinking for me.

One great month of production (May) won't last you a whole season.

lollipopcurve
07-10-2010, 10:45 AM
Cordero blew the game not because he has been overworked but because he really isn't that good. To have any chance to get the most out of him he needs to pitch less.

One of the reasons he's not as good as he was is that he's been overworked. Most appearances (by 3 games) by a closer, several instances in which he's pitched a lot in a consecutive skein of games, a mid-30s guy who relies on power stuff. Anybody who denies he's been mishandled needs to see a bigger picture.


I don't blame Dusty for leaving him in as long as he did. The pitch count wasn't an issue. He was still hitting his spots. He got beat inside in a tough at-bat.

I think you're wrong here, RFS. The key in that situation, as it always is in games where you have a decent lead late, is to minimize the chances your opponent will suddenly get back in the game -- so you fight the potential 3-run homer with a matchup that makes the home run much more unlikely. Standard practice for our friend Tony Larussa, much as I don't like saying that. Leake was on his 4th trip through the lineup, it was a hot night, he'd run the bases 4 times and Citizens Bank Park gives up cheap homers. All Dobbs needed was one bad pitch, and he got it. At the very least, Bray or Rhodes should have been there for Dobbs, if not Howard. Maybe Manuel pinch hits Francisco at that point, but then that also means he'll have to hit Castro.

Yeah, we were all caught up in Leake's performance. Unfortunately, the manager let it cloud his judgment, too.

Eric_the_Red
07-10-2010, 10:54 AM
How many times did Dusty leave the bases loaded without scoring? Or was it Dusty that was serving up homeruns?
No?
Then I'm not sure I understand the title of this post.

And about the title....I think it is an embarrassment. It is a thread title that belongs in the SunDeck, IMO. The nickname "Duhsty" rubs me the wrong way, similar to "Whiffey".
If you want to name call and have a temper tantrum like a toddler, I think it should be kept in the SunDeck, or even better, another Reds board. Just my $.02.

lollipopcurve
07-10-2010, 10:59 AM
I'm pretty sure the sky isn't falling.

Yep. As long as there's a game the next day we'll be fine.

The season is a continuum, not a discrete set of events. Trends develop over time. And what has been happening is that Baker is pushing certain segments of the roster very hard. The closer is broken. The SS is flagging. Rolen has to be watched closely, and I think Phillips needs a break.

Folks get twisted in knots when guys like Janish and Cairo play (Janish playing is a hypothetical only, as we all know he doesn't play), yet they don't understand the absolute necessity of it. We're only halfway through the year, and the players are only going to get more run down as the temperatures rise and the games pile up. So, I'm hoping we see Baker start handling his roster differently in the 2nd half, with more faith shown in more players. It takes all 25.

nate
07-10-2010, 10:59 AM
And about the title....I think it is an embarrassment. It is a thread title that belongs in the SunDeck, IMO. The nickname "Duhsty" rubs me the wrong way, similar to "Whiffey".
If you want to name call and have a temper tantrum like a toddler, I think it should be kept in the SunDeck, or even better, another Reds board. Just my $.02.

Agreed. I don't like Dusty's tactics sometimes but I don't think he's an idiot or stupid.

lollipopcurve
07-10-2010, 11:00 AM
Agreed. I don't like Dusty's tactics sometimes but I don't think he's an idiot or stupid.

Echoed.

Tony Cloninger
07-10-2010, 11:07 AM
I am also puzzled as to the use of misspelling Dusty's name....or saying Teh Dusty...or whatever. Some inside joke I just either missed and have ignored..but not quite sure what point is.

I thought Rolen has been watched closely....too closely. He sits a lot.
Cabrera should be sitting more. He is hurting and struggling badly.
Phillips could be given some extra days...here and there...but he is younger and healthier than OC is. I think he can handle starting about 158-160 games this year.

lollipopcurve
07-10-2010, 11:13 AM
I thought Rolen has been watched closely....too closely. He sits a lot.

There's a reason for that. He has a bad back. Last year, Toronto never played him in a day game after a night game. Given that the Reds have invested in Rolen for 2 more years, they should be considering the same approach.

jojo
07-10-2010, 11:14 AM
oopsie...

jojo
07-10-2010, 11:15 AM
I know.

I kinda view 80% as the effective cutoff line for closers, kinda like an arbitrary watermark of .350 OBP for your leadoff hitter. So he's teetering. On the whole, I think Cordero has been okay--not bad but not good--at doing his job. I might not be encouraged about his outlook for the second half, but so far he has been nails for the Reds in his two and a half seasons...

Here's a summary of the cohort that Cordero should be compared to (basically its all guys with at least 10 saves-i.e. guys called upon to close with enough frequency that one might reasonably call that player a "closer":



Name Team SV* BS SV% K/9 BB/9 K/BB FIP
Rafael Soriano Rays 23 1 0.96 7.99 1.93 4.14 2.88
Bobby Jenks White Sox 19 1 0.95 10.8 3.98 2.71 2.87
Jose Valverde Tigers 18 1 0.95 8.05 3.79 2.12 3.02
Ryan Franklin Cardinals 15 1 0.94 5.1 1.34 3.81 3.87
Joakim Soria Royals 25 2 0.93 11.2 2.34 4.79 3.01
Neftali Feliz Rangers 23 2 0.92 10.4 3.11 3.34 3.28
Brian Wilson Giants 22 2 0.92 12.39 3.78 3.28 2.05
Mariano Rivera Yankees 20 2 0.91 8.65 1.57 5.51 2.28
Jonathan Broxton Dodgers 19 2 0.90 12.91 1.64 7.87 1.22
Heath Bell Padres 23 3 0.88 12 3.44 3.49 1.95
Billy Wagner Braves 20 3 0.87 13.62 2.97 4.59 2.24
Jonathan Papelbon Red Sox 19 3 0.86 7.97 3.09 2.58 4.7
Kevin Gregg Blue Jays 19 3 0.86 10.09 4.91 2.05 3.7
Matt Capps Nationals 23 4 0.85 7.45 1.63 4.57 3.69
Andrew Bailey Athletics 17 3 0.85 6.5 2.5 2.60 3.6
Carlos Marmol Cubs 16 3 0.84 17.04 5.98 2.85 2.02
Francisco Rodriguez Mets 20 4 0.83 11.09 3.56 3.12 2.89
Matt Lindstrom Astros 20 4 0.83 7.6 3.15 2.41 2.86
Jon Rauch Twins 19 4 0.83 6.55 1.09 6.01 3.22
Octavio Dotel Pirates 19 4 0.83 10.9 4.41 2.47 3.93
Francisco Cordero Reds 24 6 0.80 7.52 4.87 1.54 4.87
David Aardsma Mariners 16 4 0.80 8.89 4.28 2.08 4.59
Leo Nunez Marlins 19 5 0.79 8.83 2.27 3.89 2.28
Chad Qualls Diamondbacks 12 4 0.75 9.2 3.56 2.58 4.08
Manny Corpas Rockies 10 4 0.71 5.74 2.87 2.00 4.04
480 75 0.86 9.63 3.15 3.05 3.17

Tommyjohn25
07-10-2010, 11:17 AM
Thread title edited. Rule number 5.

Tony Cloninger
07-10-2010, 11:45 AM
I agree with Rolen being handled the way he is....most of the time....yet some people have been posting that he needs to be watched?
IF he clearly is...then what is the reason people are saying Dusty should watch him more? Same with leake.....I read where they are not watching his innings now? All of a sudden.....after how many starts of barely cracking 90 pitches...they wait until this game to say that, when clearly they have?

jojo
07-10-2010, 11:58 AM
I know.

I kinda view 80% as the effective cutoff line for closers, kinda like an arbitrary watermark of .350 OBP for your leadoff hitter. So he's teetering. On the whole, I think Cordero has been okay--not bad but not good--at doing his job. I might not be encouraged about his outlook for the second half, but so far he has been nails for the Reds in his two and a half seasons...

Here's where Cordero falls within that cohort (closers as defined by having at least 10 saves at this point in the season) based upon SV%, K/9, BB/9, K/BB, and FIP:



Name SV% Name K/9 Name BB/9 Name K/BB Name FIP
Rafael Soriano 0.96 Carlos Marmol 17.04 Jon Rauch 1.09 Jonathan Broxton 7.87 Jonathan Broxton 1.22
Bobby Jenks 0.95 Billy Wagner 13.62 Ryan Franklin 1.34 Jon Rauch 6.01 Heath Bell 1.95
Jose Valverde 0.95 Jonathan Broxton 12.91 Mariano Rivera 1.57 Mariano Rivera 5.51 Carlos Marmol 2.02
Ryan Franklin 0.94 Brian Wilson 12.39 Matt Capps 1.63 Joakim Soria 4.79 Brian Wilson 2.05
Joakim Soria 0.93 Heath Bell 12 Jonathan Broxton 1.64 Billy Wagner 4.59 Billy Wagner 2.24
Neftali Feliz 0.92 Joakim Soria 11.2 Rafael Soriano 1.93 Matt Capps 4.57 Mariano Rivera 2.28
Brian Wilson 0.92 Francisco Rodriguez 11.09 Leo Nunez 2.27 Rafael Soriano 4.14 Leo Nunez 2.28
Mariano Rivera 0.91 Octavio Dotel 10.9 Joakim Soria 2.34 Leo Nunez 3.89 Matt Lindstrom 2.86
Jonathan Broxton 0.90 Bobby Jenks 10.8 Andrew Bailey 2.5 Ryan Franklin 3.81 Bobby Jenks 2.87
Heath Bell 0.88 Neftali Feliz 10.4 Manny Corpas 2.87 Heath Bell 3.49 Rafael Soriano 2.88
Billy Wagner 0.87 Kevin Gregg 10.09 Billy Wagner 2.97 Neftali Feliz 3.34 Francisco Rodriguez 2.89
average 0.86 average 9.63 Jonathan Papelbon 3.09 Brian Wilson 3.28 Joakim Soria 3.01
Jonathan Papelbon 0.86 Chad Qualls 9.2 Neftali Feliz 3.11 Francisco Rodriguez 3.12 Jose Valverde 3.02
Kevin Gregg 0.86 David Aardsma 8.89 Matt Lindstrom 3.15 average 3.05 average 3.17
Matt Capps 0.85 Leo Nunez 8.83 average 3.15 Carlos Marmol 2.85 Jon Rauch 3.22
Andrew Bailey 0.85 Mariano Rivera 8.65 Heath Bell 3.44 Bobby Jenks 2.71 Neftali Feliz 3.28
Carlos Marmol 0.84 Jose Valverde 8.05 Francisco Rodriguez 3.56 Andrew Bailey 2.60 Andrew Bailey 3.6
Francisco Rodriguez 0.83 Rafael Soriano 7.99 Chad Qualls 3.56 Chad Qualls 2.58 Matt Capps 3.69
Matt Lindstrom 0.83 Jonathan Papelbon 7.97 Brian Wilson 3.78 Jonathan Papelbon 2.58 Kevin Gregg 3.7
Jon Rauch 0.83 Matt Lindstrom 7.6 Jose Valverde 3.79 Octavio Dotel 2.47 Ryan Franklin 3.87
Octavio Dotel 0.83 Francisco Cordero 7.52 Bobby Jenks 3.98 Matt Lindstrom 2.41 Octavio Dotel 3.93
Francisco Cordero 0.80 Matt Capps 7.45 David Aardsma 4.28 Jose Valverde 2.12 Manny Corpas 4.04
David Aardsma 0.80 Jon Rauch 6.55 Octavio Dotel 4.41 David Aardsma 2.08 Chad Qualls 4.08
Leo Nunez 0.79 Andrew Bailey 6.5 Francisco Cordero 4.87 Kevin Gregg 2.05 David Aardsma 4.59
Chad Qualls 0.75 Manny Corpas 5.74 Kevin Gregg 4.91 Manny Corpas 2.00 Jonathan Papelbon 4.7
Manny Corpas 0.71 Ryan Franklin 5.1 Carlos Marmol 5.98 Francisco Cordero 1.54 Francisco Cordero 4.87


Basically Cordero is at the bottom of the list for every peripheral associated with high leverage when compared to a cohort of his peers...

Given his peripherals have trended in this direction since his career contract year, it's more likely that what we see is what we get with Cordero rather than a narrative that Dusty is wearing Cordero down (though that probably isn't helping).

Bottom line IMHO, is that Cordero is no longer a high leverage arm and he's in the closer role more because of living off of reputation than because of his true skill.

It's a bit ironic that when they finally need a sledge hammer, he's waning.

lollipopcurve
07-10-2010, 12:24 PM
Given his peripherals have trended in this direction since his career contract year, it's more likely that what we see is what we get with Cordero rather than a narrative that Dusty is wearing Cordero down (though that probably isn't helping).

"What you see is what you get" means what? He's performing worse than he ever has. And I highly doubt you'd have predicted such a decline.

Either you think Cordero is being overused, or you don't.

To what statistical extent it affects him, who knows. But it's happening -- in the narrative of this baseball season, which you must be paying attention to on some level, as it happens.

lollipopcurve
07-10-2010, 12:27 PM
It's a bit ironic that when they finally need a sledge hammer, he's waning.

No, it isn't. I was saying last year that Baker's usage patterns with Cordero would blow up if the Reds were a winning team, playing lots of close games.

This was to be expected.

OnBaseMachine
07-10-2010, 12:32 PM
And didn't the offense have plenty of more chances to put up more than 7? Seems like the Reds wasted a lot of scoring opporturnities too, despite the 7 runs. 0 for 6 from the second place hitter in the line-up didn't help, certainly.

Agreed 100%. I know the offense scored seven runs last night but they should have easily scored 10 or 11 runs. The Reds made three outs on the bases last night, that's a full innings worth of outs. Votto was picked off, Cairo was thrown out at 3rd, and Phillips was thrown out at 2nd. The Reds scored two runs in the 5th inning despite gift wrapping two outs to the Phillies. Without the baserunning blunders the Reds more than likely score at least one more run that inning, and probably two. The following inning the Reds had a runner on 3rd with less than two outs and Cabrera failed to get him in. How many times have we seen this team fail to get that runner in from 3rd with less than two outs lately? It seems like it's happening at least once a game. The Reds failed to convert twice on Thursday night and they ended up losing by one run.

The bullpen and decision making are the primary reasons why the Reds lost that game last night but the baserunning blunders certainly didn't help.

jojo
07-10-2010, 12:33 PM
"What you see is what you get" means what?

I clearly think his true skill is in decline.


He's performing worse than he ever has. And I highly doubt you'd have predicted such a decline.

Either you think Cordero is being overused, or you don't.

I clearly said his workload probably isn't helping.


To what statistical extent it affects him, who knows. But it's happening -- in the narrative of this baseball season, which you must be paying attention to on some level, as it happens.

I'm not sure how to interpret this. We don't know but it's a certainty? Are you asking how much I think about the Reds? It's alot BTW...

jojo
07-10-2010, 12:36 PM
No, it isn't. I was saying last year that Baker's usage patterns with Cordero would blow up if the Reds were a winning team, playing lots of close games.

This was to be expected.

You just argued that it wasn't expected....


And I highly doubt you'd have predicted such a decline.

OnBaseMachine
07-10-2010, 12:41 PM
Bottom line. It's one loss. We play a new game tomorrow. We're still in first place with a 2 game lead. I'm pretty sure the sky isn't falling.

We'll see. Yes, they're still in first place with a two game lead but they should have a three game lead. That's the type of loss that can haunt you at the end of the season. A six run lead in the 9th inning should be safe in the major leagues, yet the Reds have lost two games this season after carrying a six run lead into the 9th inning. That's a four game swing. Instead of being 51-37 and holding a four game lead, they are 49-39 and have a two game lead. We'll see how the Reds respond. Last time they bounced back pretty good. This time may be different.

lollipopcurve
07-10-2010, 12:42 PM
You just argued that it wasn't expected....

No, I didn't. I said you would not have predicted the extent of Cordero's decline based on the decline in his peripherals since 2007.

What has sharpened his decline, in my estimation, is the overwork.

lollipopcurve
07-10-2010, 12:44 PM
I clearly said his workload probably isn't helping.

So the workload is a non-factor? Or do you think he's been overworked?

TheNext44
07-10-2010, 12:48 PM
No, I didn't. I said you would not have predicted the extent of Cordero's decline based on the decline in his peripherals since 2007.

What has sharpened his decline, in my estimation, is the overwork.

There have been many factors to Cordero's decline... His age... Decline of his stuff... Being overworked... Supersizing his order too many times... The league figuring him out... Him not being all that great to begin with...

So many that's it's hard to say which was the biggest factor.

jojo
07-10-2010, 12:59 PM
So the workload is a non-factor? Or do you think he's been overworked?

It could be a factor but looking past his age and his trends over the last three seasons to get to workload probably misses a lot of important information.

Cyclone792
07-10-2010, 01:11 PM
Two things stand out to me about the 9th inning last night and in general:

1) Leake should never have started the 9th. I don't care how easily he breezed through 8 innings; this is an organization that has repeatedly told us they're monitoring his innings and pitches. Last night was a golden opportunity to shut him down after an easy outing in which he already gave the team 8 outstanding innings. If your organization is monitoring workload heading into late summer, last night's 8 innings were a dream. You take that every chance you get, say thank you, and move on.

But Dusty cannot help himself - he wants to give guys a chance at a personal accomplishment even at the potential detriment and risk to the team - and it blew up in his face last night.

2) Cordero is a problem, and his walks are a massive problem. In his last six outings, he's struck out only two guys while walking six. In fact, he's walked at least one hitter in five of his last six outings. It's getting to the point where you just expect him to walk somebody in every outing. Then mix a hit in - whether it's hard hit or a lucky bloop - and he's in trouble.

Personally, I think his problems are a combination of skill decline and overload ramifications from earlier in the year. Given that he's 35, skill decline is to be expected. But his workload earlier this year was absurd, and now those two likely factors are joining forces to send him out on the plank in nearly every outing.

lollipopcurve
07-10-2010, 01:16 PM
Personally, I think his problems are a combination of skill decline and overload ramifications from earlier in the year. Given that he's 35, skill decline is to be expected. But his workload earlier this year was absurd, and now those two likely factors are joining forces to send him out on the plank in nearly every outing.

Couldn't agree more.

redsfandan
07-10-2010, 06:17 PM
Two things stand out to me about the 9th inning last night and in general:

1) Leake should never have started the 9th. I don't care how easily he breezed through 8 innings; this is an organization that has repeatedly told us they're monitoring his innings and pitches. Last night was a golden opportunity to shut him down after an easy outing in which he already gave the team 8 outstanding innings. If your organization is monitoring workload heading into late summer, last night's 8 innings were a dream. You take that every chance you get, say thank you, and move on.

But Dusty cannot help himself - he wants to give guys a chance at a personal accomplishment even at the potential detriment and risk to the team - and it blew up in his face last night. ...
I don't agree on your assertion that Leake shouldn't have started the 9th. If they would have pulled him after 8 that would have been fine with me. That they started the 9th with him still in was ok with me too. But I just don't think he should've been left in to face that many hitters in the 9th.

Before he throws his 1st pitch have someone start to warm up in case he's shaky in the 9th. When Howard comes up to bat with Victorino at 3rd pull him. At that point we still had a 6 run lead. Bringing in Cordero then still probably would've resulted in Phillie runs but not 8 of them. But Dusty took his time in getting the bullpen going. It's not like they were playing the Padres last night. Even with Utley/Polanco out, I don't think it's wise to take that kind of chance with that offense.

Redhook
07-10-2010, 06:23 PM
The more I've thought about last night the more it irritates that Dusty let Leake out there in the 9th. All we've heard after Leake's hot start is how they're going to watch his innings, pitch counts, etc. Last night was a golden opportunity limit him. But Dusty couldn't help himself and wanted Leake to get his first CG. Bad idea, and it really came back to bite Dusty.

Raisor
07-10-2010, 06:24 PM
Dusty's biggest mistake was not having someone up in the pen to start off the 9th. Leake should have been on a short short leash.

Captain Hook
07-10-2010, 06:33 PM
Dusty's biggest mistake was not having someone up in the pen to start off the 9th. Leake should have been on a short short leash.

......and the fact that he didn't contributed to the loss.I have mentioned before that many of the mistakes Dusty makes don't directly cause the team to loose but makes it harder for them to win.Still bad managing either way.

GAC
07-11-2010, 10:21 AM
Deltachi8 swooped in and nailed it, imo: this team has squeezed every last drop of production from its talent; now the regression comes; the charmed days are over.

My Gawd! You're such a...

http://www.eons.com/images/members/2008/8/12/3/0/3010958121705144_220w.jpeg

And I actually think you find enjoyment in it to. You wouldn't be happy any other way! :p:

Tony Cloninger
07-11-2010, 10:58 AM
Barely a peep out of you all year FCB....but once it looks like their might be a carcass to pick at......you swoop in like a vulture to start picking away.

I will call out Baker every chance he does something obviously wrong or keeps doing wrong (like lineups).....but the more I think about the blown lead.....and how people started posting AFTER the Dobbs homer and even after the Cordero blow up....to just lay out their blame on Dusty, as if just waiting for that perfect spot to do so...... the more disingenuous it looks.

Leake...who has not thrown more than 100 pitches....maybe once? Came out there with 83 pitches and only 1 ball (Victorino) was hit hard...up until the long AB by Dobbs.

He should have had someone warming up quicker? With a 7-1 lead? and him still at about 90 pitches when the 1st out was made?

Howard blooped one....than Werth would have been a DP if Cairo is playing off the line and that was a one pitch hit. The Dobbs AB did Leake in....he could not put him away but he did not look gassed going into that AB.

This is all on Cordero afterwards...but of course...it is Dusty's fault he overused him to save games when he should have used Masset, of course, since he was pitching so well. I will give you he could have used Rhodes sometimes but then usually...Rhodes had to cover up for the other kerosene that was coming out of the pen.

I think that the people who hate Dusty will pounce on him at any drop of a hat....even when it is not obvious, or close to being obviously his fault.
Batting OC 2nd....no problem....his fault. Friday night....not so obvious but hey ...I hate him so much I might as well pounce on him any chance I get.

oneupper
07-11-2010, 11:10 AM
......and the fact that he didn't contributed to the loss.I have mentioned before that many of the mistakes Dusty makes don't directly cause the team to loose but makes it harder for them to win.Still bad managing either way.

In-Game Managing is exactly this what you mention: Improving the odds of winning.

The poker analogy of Friday's game would be the lesser hand coming back with running cards to make a straight flush to beat our four aces.
Bad luck? Sure. But a good poker player would have pushed that lesser hand to fold way before the "river".

That's Dusty's job. He has to do better than what we saw Friday.

Falls City Beer
07-11-2010, 04:55 PM
Barely a peep out of you all year FCB....but once it looks like their might be a carcass to pick at......you swoop in like a vulture to start picking away.

I will call out Baker every chance he does something obviously wrong or keeps doing wrong (like lineups).....but the more I think about the blown lead.....and how people started posting AFTER the Dobbs homer and even after the Cordero blow up....to just lay out their blame on Dusty, as if just waiting for that perfect spot to do so...... the more disingenuous it looks.

Leake...who has not thrown more than 100 pitches....maybe once? Came out there with 83 pitches and only 1 ball (Victorino) was hit hard...up until the long AB by Dobbs.

He should have had someone warming up quicker? With a 7-1 lead? and him still at about 90 pitches when the 1st out was made?

Howard blooped one....than Werth would have been a DP if Cairo is playing off the line and that was a one pitch hit. The Dobbs AB did Leake in....he could not put him away but he did not look gassed going into that AB.

This is all on Cordero afterwards...but of course...it is Dusty's fault he overused him to save games when he should have used Masset, of course, since he was pitching so well. I will give you he could have used Rhodes sometimes but then usually...Rhodes had to cover up for the other kerosene that was coming out of the pen.

I think that the people who hate Dusty will pounce on him at any drop of a hat....even when it is not obvious, or close to being obviously his fault.
Batting OC 2nd....no problem....his fault. Friday night....not so obvious but hey ...I hate him so much I might as well pounce on him any chance I get.

I've posted far more often than you have this season. I just don't post in game threads. I'm not trolling and I've been posting.

Good team; could be a whole lot better. Not sure why that's even up for discussion or why pointing it out should be criticized.

Falls City Beer
07-11-2010, 04:56 PM
Dusty's biggest mistake was not having someone up in the pen to start off the 9th. Leake should have been on a short short leash.

This is the beginning and end of the discussion, really.

Tony Cloninger
07-11-2010, 08:20 PM
I have never called you a troll. You count how many times you post over how many I have? Who knows how many and who cares?

Yes this team could be better but every time it looses...it has to be always some thing Dusty did. That is what I was mainly pointing out.

Sea Ray
07-12-2010, 05:27 PM
He should have had someone warming up quicker? With a 7-1 lead? and him still at about 90 pitches when the 1st out was made?


Dusty had Cordero up to start the inning. He was covered

hebroncougar
07-12-2010, 05:42 PM
I read an article about a week ago on vacation that said this in so many words:

The Reds would benefit greatly from a managerial change, like the Yanks did in 1995 when they went from Showalter to Torre, and the rest is history. I'm not so sure I disagree with that. I think the Reds would benefit from a change.

Hoosier Red
07-12-2010, 05:47 PM
Barely a peep out of you all year FCB....but once it looks like their might be a carcass to pick at......you swoop in like a vulture to start picking away.

I will call out Baker every chance he does something obviously wrong or keeps doing wrong (like lineups).....but the more I think about the blown lead.....and how people started posting AFTER the Dobbs homer and even after the Cordero blow up....to just lay out their blame on Dusty, as if just waiting for that perfect spot to do so...... the more disingenuous it looks.

Leake...who has not thrown more than 100 pitches....maybe once? Came out there with 83 pitches and only 1 ball (Victorino) was hit hard...up until the long AB by Dobbs.

He should have had someone warming up quicker? With a 7-1 lead? and him still at about 90 pitches when the 1st out was made?

Howard blooped one....than Werth would have been a DP if Cairo is playing off the line and that was a one pitch hit. The Dobbs AB did Leake in....he could not put him away but he did not look gassed going into that AB.

This is all on Cordero afterwards...but of course...it is Dusty's fault he overused him to save games when he should have used Masset, of course, since he was pitching so well. I will give you he could have used Rhodes sometimes but then usually...Rhodes had to cover up for the other kerosene that was coming out of the pen.

I think that the people who hate Dusty will pounce on him at any drop of a hat....even when it is not obvious, or close to being obviously his fault.
Batting OC 2nd....no problem....his fault. Friday night....not so obvious but hey ...I hate him so much I might as well pounce on him any chance I get.

I think two lessons get drawn from this episode.
1) Of the people claiming that it was insane to bring Leake out for the 9th, not a one made a peep about it in the game thread. Some were even in the game thread at the time. Still it's a fair criticism, but would you have been just as critical if Jordan Smith or Bill Bray came in and gave up the first four runs before Dusty could get Cordero in the game? I can just see it now. "What's Dusty doing? Leake was cruising. Why do you take a pitcher out after only 83 pitches in 8 innings? WHY WHY WHY?!"

2) This is why players love playing for Dusty. I honestly think he comes up with something that's a dumb rationale for his move on purpose. If he says nothing more than "Leake only had 83 pitches and we thought he could get us through one more inning," than the conversation turns over to Leake (What was different about the 9th inning?) and even more on Cordero.

As it was, Mike Leake receives no blame. Cordero's blamed for his part still but the venom's probably not as bad as it could be. All the while, fans are saying "Stupid Dusty trying to get his players meaningless single game accomplishments." I bet his players appreciate it.

Big Klu
07-12-2010, 06:27 PM
2) This is why players love playing for Dusty. I honestly think he comes up with something that's a dumb rationale for his move on purpose. If he says nothing more than "Leake only had 83 pitches and we thought he could get us through one more inning," than the conversation turns over to Leake (What was different about the 9th inning?) and even more on Cordero.

As it was, Mike Leake receives no blame. Cordero's blamed for his part still but the venom's probably not as bad as it could be. All the while, fans are saying "Stupid Dusty trying to get his players meaningless single game accomplishments." I bet his players appreciate it.

We had a pretty good high school basketball coach here in Cambridge for a lot of years named Gene Ford. He had this saying that hung on his wall in his office. It went something like this:


I'm just the son of a coal miner, but I've learned three things about motivation:

1. If anything goes wrong, then I did it.
2. If anything goes sort of all right, then we did it.
3. It anything goes exactly right, then the players did it.

That's all you need to know to get guys to want to play for you.


I think that Dusty absolutely believes in this, too.

RedsManRick
07-12-2010, 07:08 PM
As it was, Mike Leake receives no blame. Cordero's blamed for his part still but the venom's probably not as bad as it could be. All the while, fans are saying "Stupid Dusty trying to get his players meaningless single game accomplishments." I bet his players appreciate it.

This is a good insight. As maddened as I am by Dusty's often incoherence, I think a fair amount of it comes in the name of protecting his players from having to face the music publicly. He's dumb like a fox to some degree.

klw
07-11-2011, 09:11 AM
bump from last season for perspective. Apparently the Reds and 4 game series before the break just don't mix.