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Benihana
07-10-2010, 01:43 PM
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2010/2610314.html

Chapman #14.

No other Red, including Devin Mesoraco, made the Top 50.

Begin complaining now...

dougdirt
07-10-2010, 01:47 PM
Not worth complaining as far as Reds go. I think they have it right as of today. There are some guys listed who I feel don't belong on the list, but in particular for the Reds, I think they have it right with only Chapman as a Top 50 guys today.

Benihana
07-10-2010, 01:49 PM
Not worth complaining as far as Reds go. I think they have it right as of today. There are some guys listed who I feel don't belong on the list, but in particular for the Reds, I think they have it right with only Chapman as a Top 50 guys today.

So you don't think Mez (or Alonso for that matter) is a Top 50 guy?

I don't at this point, but I'm surprised to hear that you would agree.

dougdirt
07-10-2010, 01:55 PM
So you don't think Mez (or Alonso for that matter) is a Top 50 guy?

I don't at this point, but I'm surprised to hear that you would agree.

I mean I haven't exactly gone through my Top 50 and figured out who all is eligible/ineligible. One thing to note with this list is that no 2010 draftees are here regardless of whether they have signed or not. So as I said, I think Mesoraco for example is better than some guys on this list, that doesn't make him a top 50 guy necessarily because some guys aren't even eligible for this list who are eligible for prospect lists.

Alonso has been hitting very well lately and has looked good as well watching him. He even looks a little better in left field. Still, he is going to need to show the skills he has showed in the past, in particular the plate discipline to get back in the top 50 for me.

GIDP
07-10-2010, 02:00 PM
Alonso will climb back up if he recovers.

Half a season of numbers isnt enough to drive Devin up to 50.

Frazier is the one probably losing the most real value of our prospects.

Scrap Irony
07-10-2010, 02:01 PM
But it's odd you don't think Mesoraco is a Top 50 prospect in baseball, doug. As much as you've trumpted him in the past and as well as he's played so far this season, it's a suprise that you don't have him higher.

dougdirt
07-10-2010, 02:03 PM
But it's odd you don't think Mesoraco is a Top 50 prospect in baseball, doug. As much as you've trumpted him in the past and as well as he's played so far this season, it's a suprise that you don't have him higher.

He is certainly a Top 100 prospect. He actually may be there. Like I said, I haven't broken down a list. But my gut feeling is he is just on the outside right now. Of course, my gut feeling last year was that most of the guys ranked in my own top 50 shouldn't have been but I couldn't find better guys either.

Benihana
07-10-2010, 02:08 PM
This being the case, even more puzzling to me is why people wouldn't trade him for Cliff Lee. The only prospects that I refuse to deal are guys that are Top 25 prospects in the game at a position where there is a real need, and even then I'm listening.

To not trade a player who is acknowledged to not be a Top 50 prospect in the game, who plays the same position as the guy you just drafted in the top half of the first round (and is expected to move quickly), is just mind-boggling to me. I love that the Reds now have a pretty good prospect at a position where it is had to find those. But I would love even more having an ace pitcher to propel the Reds to the World Series. How anyone can not see that is beyond me.

dougdirt
07-10-2010, 02:11 PM
This being the case, even more puzzling to me is why people wouldn't trade him for Cliff Lee. The only prospects that I refuse to deal are guys that are Top 50 prospects in the game at a position where there is a real need, and even then I'm listening.

To not trade a player who is acknowledged to not be a Top 50 prospect in the game, who plays the same position as the guy you just drafted in the top half of the first round (and is expected to move quickly), is just mind-boggling to me. I love that the Reds now have a pretty good prospect at a position where it is had to find those. But I would love even more having an ace pitcher to propel the Reds to the World Series. How anyone can not see that is beyond me.

I guess I would say because if Mesoraco keeps it up for the rest of the season in AA, he could be a Top 25 prospect. Even today, he is a much better prospect than the guy we just took in the 1st round.

Benihana
07-10-2010, 02:13 PM
I guess I would say because if Mesoraco keeps it up for the rest of the season in AA, he could be a Top 25 prospect. Even today, he is a much better prospect than the guy we just took in the 1st round.

But do you really want to play the IF/COULD game? Because I guess I would counter with:

IF the Reds get Cliff Lee (or some equivalent now that he's gone), they COULD win the World Series.

Isn't that kind of the point of this whole thing? I guess the answer to that depends on whether you really care about the REDS or the REDS MINOR LEAGUES. Not knocking you personally, because I also (clearly) love following prospects, but at a certain point you need to remember why we care.

GIDP
07-10-2010, 02:22 PM
You have no idea what the Reds offered for Lee.

Benihana
07-10-2010, 02:27 PM
You have no idea what the Reds offered for Lee.

Is this directed towards me?

If so, I never implied that I did, thank you very much. I am having a discourse about whether people on this board were inclined to include Mesoraco in a trade.

GIDP
07-10-2010, 02:33 PM
Is this directed towards me?

If so, I never implied that I did, thank you very much. I am having a discourse about whether people on this board were inclined to include Mesoraco in a trade.

You certainly did with your counter argument on Lee and the WS. Either way to suggest that people didnt want to include Mes because they care about the minor leagues and not the major leagues. Im in the not for Lee camp when it comes to Mes because catching prospects with good peripherals, power, throwing out the amount of guys hes throwing dont grow on trees. Trading potential top 25 catching prospects for a rental seems like a bad idea to me. I'm willing to give up a ton for Lee if we had to, but I do draw a line and that line generally includes a VERY hard to replace talent.

Benihana
07-10-2010, 02:43 PM
You certainly did with your counter argument on Lee and the WS. Either way to suggest that people didnt want to include Mes because they care about the minor leagues and not the major leagues. Im in the not for Lee camp when it comes to Mes because catching prospects with good peripherals, power, throwing out the amount of guys hes throwing dont grow on trees. Trading potential top 25 catching prospects for a rental seems like a bad idea to me. I'm willing to give up a ton for Lee if we had to, but I do draw a line and that line generally includes a VERY hard to replace talent.

Show me where I claimed to know what the Reds offered for Lee.

GIDP
07-10-2010, 02:48 PM
Show me where I claimed to know what the Reds offered for Lee.

Your stance is that you dont know why people wouldnt want to deal him for Lee. I certainly take it like you are implying the Reds missed their chance by not offering all they could for Lee.

RedsManRick
07-10-2010, 02:51 PM
50 sounds like a big number, but when you consider that it's less than 2 prospects per team, it's a pretty darn elite group. As good as Mes has been this year, he wasn't highly regarded enough to get there on reputation and hasn't quite done enough on the field to merit it.

Benihana
07-10-2010, 02:52 PM
Your stance is that you dont know why people wouldnt want to deal him for Lee. I certainly take it like you are implying the Reds missed their chance by not offering all they could for Lee.

Well then, you would certainly be wrong.

GIDP
07-10-2010, 02:53 PM
Well then, you would certainly be wrong.

I guess I'll take your word for it... :)

CincyRed44
07-10-2010, 03:23 PM
Just a question & thought. Are the Reds going to sign Grandal? Isn't he eligible to return to Miami, forgoing a signed contract with the Reds? If we don't sign our 1st round pick this year, do we get another 1st round pick in 2011 draft?

If so, maybe they know signing him is not happening. Mesoroco in this scenario now becomes untouchable as a trading chip due to the lack of quality in the catching department throughout our organization.

Benihana
07-10-2010, 03:32 PM
Just a question & thought. Are the Reds going to sign Grandal? Isn't he eligible to return to Miami, forgoing a signed contract with the Reds? If we don't sign our 1st round pick this year, do we get another 1st round pick in 2011 draft?

If so, maybe they know signing him is not happening. Mesoroco in this scenario now becomes untouchable as a trading chip due to the lack of quality in the catching department throughout our organization.

While that is a possibility, most teams (Reds included) won't begin serious negotiations until a week before the August 15 deadline. Therefore, most teams don't really know whether or not a player will or won't sign until that week, and in most cases, the guys drafted in the top half of the first round will sign.

fearofpopvol1
07-10-2010, 04:04 PM
Just a question & thought. Are the Reds going to sign Grandal? Isn't he eligible to return to Miami, forgoing a signed contract with the Reds? If we don't sign our 1st round pick this year, do we get another 1st round pick in 2011 draft?

If so, maybe they know signing him is not happening. Mesoroco in this scenario now becomes untouchable as a trading chip due to the lack of quality in the catching department throughout our organization.

I think the Reds absolutely are going to have better leverage if Mez keeps killing it the way he has. If it doesn't work out, they'll get the extra 1st round pick next year and the draft is supposed to be deeper then. Still, I'd like to see them grab Grandal. I do think he will be a very good player and very good catchers don't grow on trees. He could later be flipped for a stud SS or another need if he's a good player.

dougdirt
07-10-2010, 04:14 PM
But do you really want to play the IF/COULD game? Because I guess I would counter with:

IF the Reds get Cliff Lee (or some equivalent now that he's gone), they COULD win the World Series.

Isn't that kind of the point of this whole thing? I guess the answer to that depends on whether you really care about the REDS or the REDS MINOR LEAGUES. Not knocking you personally, because I also (clearly) love following prospects, but at a certain point you need to remember why we care.

The Reds future and their farm system are strongly tied together.

Benihana
07-10-2010, 04:21 PM
The Reds future and their farm system are strongly tied together.

Yes, but there is also something called a present, which reminds me of a quote from the genius that is Ferris Bueller:

"Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it."

membengal
07-10-2010, 04:25 PM
Beni, as one who said NO to Mes for Lee:

1. I am not surprised that BP doesn't have him on it. It is my position that BA and BP and Sickles and others will be slow to fix what was a mistake on their part dropping him so far. People hate to admit mistakes, so they will hope he cools off.

2. The issue with Mes is one relative to what the Reds need NEXT YEAR. And that would be a catcher. Hernandez is old and creaky. Hanigan is serviceable. And Mes is perhaps on the doorstep of being an answer at catcher for this club for the decade. Cheaply. And as early as mid-point 2011. I think he can be a .750 or so help for this team with plus defense. I keep that.

I was against dealing it for a rental, I remain against dealing it for a rental.

You want to include him for Haren or Grienke? Fine by me. Bring back an achor who is under contract and deal him, no issues from me.

But not for a rental.

GIDP
07-10-2010, 04:37 PM
Beni, as one who said NO to Mes for Lee:

1. I am not surprised that BP doesn't have him on it. It is my position that BA and BP and Sickles and others will be slow to fix what was a mistake on their part dropping him so far. People hate to admit mistakes, so they will hope he cools off.

2. The issue with Mes is one relative to what the Reds need NEXT YEAR. And that would be a catcher. Hernandez is old and creaky. Hanigan is serviceable. And Mes is perhaps on the doorstep of being an answer at catcher for this club for the decade. Cheaply. And as early as mid-point 2011. I think he can be a .750 or so help for this team with plus defense. I keep that.

I was against dealing it for a rental, I remain against dealing it for a rental.

You want to include him for Haren or Grienke? Fine by me. Bring back an achor who is under contract and deal him, no issues from me.

But not for a rental.

Yea I'm pretty much exactly in line with this post. I dont mind trading off guys that are 100% blocked for rentals. Losing Yonder honestly was a lot of talent to give up for Lee, but in season trades some times happen like that and I'm fine with it because of Votto being here at least 3 or 4 more years. Dealing your best prospect at a position that isnt very deep has to hold higher organizational value. Zach Cozart is a similar example of my line of thinking. He isnt untouchable but its harder to deal that guy than if we had a major league quality SS somewhere else.

Scrap Irony
07-10-2010, 04:55 PM
Hanigan is both cheap and has produced at the major league level. He deserves to start the majority of the games next season. Add a veteran catcher as a back-up and it's likely to be a plus position both offensively and defensively.

Mesoraco has certainly produced thus far in the minor leagues, but s the drop-off from a hypothetical Mesoraco two years from now and Hanigan enough to offset the drop-off from Lee to Harang this season while chasing the pennant and World Series?

Without Lee, the Reds likely don't have the ace to hitch their wagon to. That means they may win the pennant or the Wild Card, but not much else.

With Lee, if they win the pennant or Wild Card, they then have the pitching to compete with anyone.

That's Beni's position.

membengal
07-10-2010, 05:03 PM
Yeah, I get that.

I firmly disagree with it. Not worth the rental on a wing and a prayer.

Benihana
07-10-2010, 05:09 PM
Here is another angle to the argument-

In some ways, a move for Cliff Lee could possibly help the Reds for the long-term as well (or at least, as opposed to acquiring a pitcher like Oswalt, Haren or Carmona with additional years at a high salary on the books.) Lee bolts after the season (hopefully after winning the World Series) leaving the Reds with two additional first round picks as well as payroll flexibility (that Oswalt and co. would not provide) that would allow them to step back and decide the long-term futures of players like Votto et al.

With an Oswalt or Haren on the books, it may be more difficult to think about locking players like Votto (or Bruce, Cueto, etc.) up for the long term, as there may just not be enough money to go around, at least for the moment. Of course this is all speculation, and hypothetical at that because as we all know Cliff Lee will not be playing in Cincinnati this season, but it is worth remembering that Lee would bring two extra high draft picks (in a deep draft, no less) and that he wouldn't weigh down the payroll for years to come.

So would I give up Devin Mesoraco, he of the .762 career OPS, for one of the best pitchers in the game down the stretch run, a chance at a WS run, two extra first round picks, and more payroll flexibility than a player like Oswalt would give heading into the offseason? Abso-freaking-lutely.

It wouldn't mortgage the future of the franchise, and 1990 was a loooooong time ago.

mth123
07-10-2010, 07:31 PM
Hanigan is both cheap and has produced at the major league level. He deserves to start the majority of the games next season. Add a veteran catcher as a back-up and it's likely to be a plus position both offensively and defensively.

Mesoraco has certainly produced thus far in the minor leagues, but s the drop-off from a hypothetical Mesoraco two years from now and Hanigan enough to offset the drop-off from Lee to Harang this season while chasing the pennant and World Series?

Without Lee, the Reds likely don't have the ace to hitch their wagon to. That means they may win the pennant or the Wild Card, but not much else.

With Lee, if they win the pennant or Wild Card, they then have the pitching to compete with anyone.

That's Beni's position.

Hanigan is 30. He can be the veteran. Go with a young high potential guy. I'm happy with Mes, but I still want another one to pair with him down the road. Maybe that is Grandal, but the Reds should be looking for that guy in the offseason to replace Ramon (assuming Ramon's option doesn't vest). Then when Mes is ready, maybe Hanigan is dealt for something. He's going to be arb eligible soon, and if he isn't so cheap, he's not nearly as valuable IMO.

Benihana
07-10-2010, 07:32 PM
Hanigan is 30. He can be the veteran. Go with a young high potential guy. I'm happy with Mes, but I still want another one to pair with him down the road. Maybe that is Grandal, but the Reds should be looking for that guy in the offseason to replace Ramon (assuming Ramon's option doesn't vest). Then when Mes is ready, maybe Hanigan is dealt for something. He's going to be arb eligible soon, and if he isn't so cheap, he's not nearly as valuable IMO.

I'm guessing it might be helpful to have a Spanish-speaking catcher on the roster.

mth123
07-10-2010, 07:38 PM
I'm guessing it might be helpful to have a Spanish-speaking catcher on the roster.

Maybe, but its overblown too IMO. These guys aren't going on a date. They just need to know things like "get it over" and "cover first" and its not like Cueto, Volquez, Cordero et al haven't been around the game. Chapman will probably speak better English than most of us by next year at this time.

Would be a nice bonus, but I wouldn't pass on a better player that no habla Espanol.

fearofpopvol1
07-10-2010, 10:41 PM
Hanigan is 30. He can be the veteran. Go with a young high potential guy. I'm happy with Mes, but I still want another one to pair with him down the road. Maybe that is Grandal, but the Reds should be looking for that guy in the offseason to replace Ramon (assuming Ramon's option doesn't vest). Then when Mes is ready, maybe Hanigan is dealt for something. He's going to be arb eligible soon, and if he isn't so cheap, he's not nearly as valuable IMO.

If both Grandal and Mez turn out to be great catchers, I can't see the Reds keeping both. It just doesn't usually work out that way. 1 of the 2 could bring back a lot more value than the other in a trade. And since Mez is further along than Grandal is (and playing well on both sides of the dish), I think he would be the one more likely to stay.

BringDownMugabe
07-10-2010, 10:47 PM
If both Grandal and Mez turn out to be great catchers, I can't see the Reds keeping both. It just doesn't usually work out that way. 1 of the 2 could bring back a lot more value than the other in a trade. And since Mez is further along than Grandal is (and playing well on both sides of the dish), I think he would be the one more likely to stay.

If Mesoraco keeps hitting the cover off the ball, the odds the Reds sign him will keep diminishing. Hell, wasn't signability already an issue with him before we drafted him?

fearofpopvol1
07-10-2010, 11:17 PM
If Mesoraco keeps hitting the cover off the ball, the odds the Reds sign him will keep diminishing. Hell, wasn't signability already an issue with him before we drafted him?

It shouldn't though. Votto was looking like a promising 1B when the Reds drafted Alonso. You're always supposed to take the best player available, regardless of position and what your minor leagues look like. The Reds felt Grandal was the best available. You can always trade later for other needs, which is why the Reds should sign him anyhow.

GIDP
07-10-2010, 11:59 PM
I really doubt anything Mes does has anything to do with what they do with Grandal.

RiverRat13
07-11-2010, 12:05 AM
I really doubt anything Mes does has anything to do with what they do with Grandal.

I agree. Nothing wrong with having two stud catchers :thumbup:

TheNext44
07-11-2010, 05:48 PM
Maybe, but its overblown too IMO. These guys aren't going on a date. They just need to know things like "get it over" and "cover first" and its not like Cueto, Volquez, Cordero et al haven't been around the game. Chapman will probably speak better English than most of us by next year at this time.

Would be a nice bonus, but I wouldn't pass on a better player that no habla Espanol.

When Fernando came up, the only English words he knew were "Beer" and "Light Beer" (He later learned "Million" when negotiating his next contract). Scioscia jokes that when he went to the mound, no matter the situation, he would simply say, "Beer" or "Light Beer." That seemed to work. ;)

Mario-Rijo
07-11-2010, 08:48 PM
This being the case, even more puzzling to me is why people wouldn't trade him for Cliff Lee. The only prospects that I refuse to deal are guys that are Top 25 prospects in the game at a position where there is a real need, and even then I'm listening.

To not trade a player who is acknowledged to not be a Top 50 prospect in the game, who plays the same position as the guy you just drafted in the top half of the first round (and is expected to move quickly), is just mind-boggling to me. I love that the Reds now have a pretty good prospect at a position where it is had to find those. But I would love even more having an ace pitcher to propel the Reds to the World Series. How anyone can not see that is beyond me.

My .02 cents on the matter. How many stated that no way no how they trade him for Lee, probably less than you think. What I saw most people saying was they preferred not to deal him and would try to avoid doing so. But alot of them I'm guessing would have parted with him, hesitantly of course if it meant the deal would get it done. Unless the M's were asking for Mes plus another top end prospect like Alonso or Wood. SO it wasn't so much no to dealing Mes for Lee it was no we aren't gonna give up more than we should. This is the way I read most folks, maybe we should add a poll to find out.

Now some others (very few) have suggested he was off the table altogether. I personally don't think I'd have pulled the trigger on it with him in the mix, not 100% positive but say 90%. My thinking was/is Cliff Lee isn't as valuable to the Reds as he would have been several other teams (mainly in the playoffs). Though because he was an upgrade still I would have offered a seemingly fair & competitive package (and crossed my fingers that Jack Z wasn't as smart as I think he is). But I wouldn't overpay for a guy who as good as he is isn't a true stopper IMO and in addition was likely just a rental.

Bottom line if the M's and Reds couldn't come to terms on a more than reasonable package without Mes' addition then they simply weren't trying very hard to come to an agreement. The main ingredient of a successful team is the ability to accurately assess their own talent and just tossing Mes into the mix for Lee without being heavily prodded to is just asinine.

Just for example some combination of these players (plus additional lesser players) ought to have been just as fair if not moreso than they received.

Homer Bailey
Yonder Alonso
Matt Maloney
Juan Francisco
Chris Heisey
Travis Wood
JC Sulbaran
Etc.....

Basically pretty much anyone except Aroldis, Mes, Cozart, Hamilton and Yorman. Now we can talk about any of these guys (except Aroldis) but the odds of Jack Z getting me to include one would be very low. Cliff Lee just doesn't impress me as much as he does everyone else I guess.