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View Full Version : Not going to panic, but something I don't understand



reds44
07-10-2010, 10:27 PM
Why are we trying to deal for starting pitching? Yeah, it would have been nice to get a guy like Lee, but we have more important needs.

RP
SS
LF

All are bigger needs than SP. Stop trying to get Lee or Haren, and get us somebody who can actually hit and defend in LF or at SS, as well as a closer.

LoganBuck
07-10-2010, 10:31 PM
Duh, get Haren and Drew!

OnBaseMachine
07-10-2010, 10:32 PM
I still want a starter like Haren/Oswalt/Nolasco, but I agree that the offense is a problem too. The Reds offense has now been shutout 9 times in 89 games this season. You do the math, that's an average of 1 shutout per every 10 games. And how many times do we see this team put a runner on 3rd with less than two outs and strand him? It happened twice on Thursday night - they lost by 1 run in extra innings. It happened last night, and though that loss was on Cordero, the offense left a ton of runners on base. And tonight, twice they had a runner on 3rd with one out and couldn't score him. Result? One run loss in extra innings.

reds44
07-10-2010, 10:33 PM
Don't overlook how Gomes epically misplayed that flyball in the 11th tonight. That should have been an out. He took a bad route, and for some reason gave up on it. Should have been caught.

_Sir_Charles_
07-10-2010, 10:36 PM
Am I really reading this stuff right? The OFFENSE is a problem?

After this recent cold spell...the club is STILL....

5th in BA
3rd in HR
4th in RBI
3rd in Hits
1st in Runs
6th in 2b
1st in total bases
3rd in OBP
1st in SLG
1st in OPS

And the OFFENSE is a problem?!? Wow, I know I'm not up to speed on Sabermetrics...but those stats look pretty clear cut to me.

_Sir_Charles_
07-10-2010, 10:37 PM
Don't overlook how Gomes epically misplayed that flyball in the 11th tonight. That should have been an out. He took a bad route, and for some reason gave up on it. Should have been caught.

He may have taken a bad route...I think he did too...but that's still a double. That should NOT have been caught.

Brutus
07-10-2010, 10:37 PM
Don't overlook how Gomes epically misplayed that flyball in the 11th tonight. That should have been an out. He took a bad route, and for some reason gave up on it. Should have been caught.

I don't think Superman would have caught that ball. He took a bad angle, but it wasn't likely going to be caught anyhow.

reds44
07-10-2010, 10:39 PM
Am I really reading this stuff right? The OFFENSE is a problem?

After this recent cold spell...the club is STILL....

5th in BA
3rd in HR
4th in RBI
3rd in Hits
1st in Runs
6th in 2b
1st in total bases
3rd in OBP
1st in SLG
1st in OPS

And the OFFENSE is a problem?!? Wow, I know I'm not up to speed on Sabermetrics...but those stats look pretty clear cut to me.
I honestly don't think they are as good as their numbers say they are.

_Sir_Charles_
07-10-2010, 10:41 PM
I honestly don't think they are as good as their numbers say they are.

Really? This is with us playing a STRUGGLING Cabrera at short all season. Rolen missing several games (days off for rest...whatever). Hanigan out for a decent stretch. Hernandez out for a bit now. Miller & Cairo getting considerable playing time.

Personally, I think this offense can IMPROVE on those numbers. Stubbs is still slumping. Bruce hasn't busted out yet. Heisey should get more playing time in the second half. We're getting little to no production from the SS. And our catching tandem is going to get healthy again.

kbrake
07-10-2010, 10:42 PM
The offense has been pretty good so far. However, Rolen and Gomes I'd say are likely to be less productive in the 2nd half. Getting an upgrade in LF would really help. I just don't see them doing anything at SS so I don't see a point in going on and on about it.

reds44
07-10-2010, 10:43 PM
Really? This is with us playing a STRUGGLING Cabrera at short all season. Rolen missing several games (days off for rest...whatever). Hanigan out for a decent stretch. Hernandez out for a bit now. Miller & Cairo getting considerable playing time.

Personally, I think this offense can IMPROVE on those numbers. Stubbs is still slumping. Bruce hasn't busted out yet. We're getting little to no production from the SS. And our catching tandem is going to get healthy again.
That's the problem. Stubbs likely isn't going to get any better the rest of the season, neither is OC, Rolen is still going to need a lot of days off, Gomes isn't going to hit like he did in May, and the catchers won't hit as well as they did all year.

reds44
07-10-2010, 10:44 PM
The offense has been pretty good so far. However, Rolen and Gomes I'd say are likely to be less productive in the 2nd half. Getting an upgrade in LF would really help. I just don't see them doing anything at SS so I don't see a point in going on and on about it.
Completely agree. I've given up on hoping they acquire a SS, but I still think LF is a possibilty.

Just give me somebody who can hit and defend out there.

guttle11
07-10-2010, 10:48 PM
I'm all for grabbing DeJesus to platoon with Gomes. Cut Nix when Dickerson is ready and have Dick, Cairo and Janish and the other catcher off the bench. Bring Heisey back in September, or you could use him with Alonso as bait for a starter. I would only include him in an Oswalt/Haren/Greinke type package though.

Gomes is a guy you ride for 2 weeks when he's hot, he's never going to be a full time answer.

_Sir_Charles_
07-10-2010, 10:50 PM
That's the problem. Stubbs likely isn't going to get any better the rest of the season, neither is OC, Rolen is still going to need a lot of days off, Gomes isn't going to hit like he did in May, and the catchers won't hit as well as they did all year.

Stubbs IS likely to get better. He needs experience.

OC...I agree with. But I'm hoping and praying that the Reds do something to address the situation. Janish, a trade, a switch to the batting order, a callup...SOMETHING.

Rolen is getting extra day's off in the first half so he'll be fresher for the second half. That's the whole point of it.

Gomes doesn't have to. I fully expect Heisey to see more playing time.

And the catchers only have to do better than CORKY.

REDblooded
07-10-2010, 10:52 PM
IMO, the issue could be solved pretty easily by just plugging in Janish over Cabrera for a few games... Give Old Man OCab a few days to rest up heading into the all-star break, then the break, and he should be fine...

From there, play Heisey more often.

Also, continue to bat Phillips lead-off, hit Bruce 2nd, follow with Votto/Rolen, and prosper... Bruce would be well served by seeing better pitches dictated by actually having the chance of hitting with a runner on base, and the fear of Votto following...

Brutus
07-10-2010, 10:53 PM
I'm all for grabbing DeJesus to platoon with Gomes. Cut Nix when Dickerson is ready and have Dick, Cairo and Janish and the other catcher off the bench. Bring Heisey back in September, or you could use him with Alonso as bait for a starter. I would only include him in an Oswalt/Haren/Greinke type package though.

Gomes is a guy you ride for 2 weeks when he's hot, he's never going to be a full time answer.

DeJesus is not the kind of player you "platoon." Further, while he would be a nice addition, the Reds don't need a player badly enough at that position to justify giving up what the Royals are more than likely to want.

If the Reds are to acquire a bat, with the intention of being a starter, shortstop is where they need to look. They stand to gain far more by way of improvement there than anywhere.

reds44
07-10-2010, 10:58 PM
DeJesus has a slash line of .328/.398/.463/.861 with a 134 OPS+ in a much less hitter friendly park than GABP. He wouldn't platoon with anybody, you'd hit him leadoff and play him everyday and be done with it. He's also not a complete butcher in a LF. I have a hard time believing he wouldn't be a huge upgrade from Gomes.

He's a perfect target for the Reds, IMO.

_Sir_Charles_
07-10-2010, 11:02 PM
IMO, the issue could be solved pretty easily by just plugging in Janish over Cabrera for a few games... Give Old Man OCab a few days to rest up heading into the all-star break, then the break, and he should be fine...

From there, play Heisey more often.

Also, continue to bat Phillips lead-off, hit Bruce 2nd, follow with Votto/Rolen, and prosper... Bruce would be well served by seeing better pitches dictated by actually having the chance of hitting with a runner on base, and the fear of Votto following...

This, this, and more THIS

WVRedsFan
07-10-2010, 11:33 PM
The offense will be fine, but the relief pitching? That's where the main effort should be. We can't afford Haren or Lee anyways.

KronoRed
07-11-2010, 01:15 AM
You go after a SP because trusting 3 rookies and a guy coming back from TJ surgery is a recipe for a 2nd half fade.

Eric_the_Red
07-11-2010, 08:06 AM
You go after a SP because trusting 3 rookies and a guy coming back from TJ surgery is a recipe for a 2nd half fade.

This.

Plus, a legit starter would take a lot of pressure (and innings) off of the bullpen.

GAC
07-11-2010, 08:19 AM
Why are we trying to deal for starting pitching? Yeah, it would have been nice to get a guy like Lee, but we have more important needs.

RP
SS
LF

All are bigger needs than SP. Stop trying to get Lee or Haren, and get us somebody who can actually hit and defend in LF or at SS, as well as a closer.

Easier said then done.

We had this discussion last year when it came to SS, and the SS market. It was pretty lean then, and still is. That is why OCab is here in the first place.

Here is the potential list of FA SSs after this season....

* - player whose current contract includes 2011 option

Alex Gonzalez TOR
Christian Guzman WAS
J.J. Hardy MIN
Omar Infante ATL *
Cesar Izturis BAL
Derek Jeter NYY
Julio Lugo STL
Jhonny Peralta CLE *
Edgar Renteria SF *
Jose Reyes NYM *
Jimmy Rollins PHI *
Ramon Vazquez PIT

LF is not, IMO, some immediate, pressing need. That doesn't mean I think this team needs to sign Gomes to some long-term contract, or that he is the solution; but it really irks me that the anti-Gomes on here either cling to "he's a terrible defender", or they have to "cherry pick" his offensive numbers or single out one month. The season is 6 months long and 162 games.

Can actually hit in LF?

Jonny's current numbers - .280 BA .331 OB% .476 SLG% .808 OPS - other then a much better B/A, is pretty much in-line with his career numbers ..... .247 .330 .471 .802

And among NL LFers he's either in the top 5 or top 10 is almost every major offensive category.

He's 6th in the NL with 60 RBIs.

And in the #5 slot he has been producing this year.... .308 BA .361 OB% .462 SLG% .823 OPS

Runners On.... .321 .358 .580 .938

RISP..... .420 .455 .855 1.310

BCubb2003
07-11-2010, 08:34 AM
The top-of-the-league offense is the one that has Rolen in it. When he's not in it, it looks like the offense that struggled early. If you can line up three all-stars in a row, then guys like Gomes and a rested Cabrera can do damage from being overlooked by a stressed-out pitcher. When Rolen's not in the lineup, there are too many safe spots for the pitcher.

Falls City Beer
07-11-2010, 08:47 AM
The top-of-the-league offense is the one that has Rolen in it. When he's not in it, it looks like the offense that struggled early. If you can line up three all-stars in a row, then guys like Gomes and a rested Cabrera can do damage from being overlooked by a stressed-out pitcher. When Rolen's not in the lineup, there are too many safe spots for the pitcher.

Exactly.

You just knew if Rolen missed a few games, these threads would appear.

Offense: #1 in runs scored in NL
Pitching: #11 in team ERA in NL

nate
07-11-2010, 09:01 AM
The recency of an exciting start or two from a young pitcher hasn't changed the needs of the team. They still need a SP and RP.

I say, if they could acquire a SP, RP and someone like David DeJesus and give Janish more than a monthly start, the Reds would be Kool and the Gang.

Right now, I'm a worried they're could end up a bit "Mandril."

traderumor
07-11-2010, 09:08 AM
Other than making history Friday night, the Reds have lost three one run, extra-inning games. They are not getting blown out on these mild losing streaks. They win Friday, they're up 4 games and no one is sweating even losing 3 of 4.

It is ludicrous to say the offense has been a fluke. The offense has been good, the starting pitching has been passable, and the only reason we do not have a 6-8 game lead is the bullpen. Hopefully the second half sees all other things equal and the bullpen arms like Cordero and Massett get it in gear in the second half and become shutdown again.

mth123
07-11-2010, 09:32 AM
Overlooking the GABP factor here IMO. An offense at GABP that isn't in the top 4 in the NL would be below average talentwise IMO.

Conversely, a Pitching staff that can be in the middle of the pack at GABP is probably pretty good.

I think the Reds issue is that though they have depth of major league quality pitchers, they don't really have the talent for the top of the rotation or the back of the pen to hang with other play-off caliber teams. Having 6 or 7 guys who are just dandy in the 3-5 spots of the rotation is a nice thing to have, but if you start your play-off series 0-2 because your outclassed in the top spots, you aren't going to win.

The pen is toast and I don't see much hope there. Burton can probably help the middle and one of the displaced starters or maybe Chapman might provide enough to get Rhodes some rest and catch his second wind but we're stuck with Coco. Nobody is going to take his deal at this point and with the bucks owed to him, he won't be pushed aside. The only hope is that he comes off the break rested and comes back pitching well. I think the middle of the pen will be fine on its own, but the team may need to acquire a guy anyway who is a set-up guy with some closing experience just to get Dusty to go easier on Coco and see if he gets more effective with less usage. As an old fat guy myself, I usually don't go where I'm about to go, but a diet might help as well.

yab1112
07-11-2010, 10:08 AM
Here is the potential list of FA SSs after this season....

Alex Gonzalez TOR
Christian Guzman WAS
J.J. Hardy MIN
Omar Infante ATL *
Cesar Izturis BAL
Derek Jeter NYY
Julio Lugo STL
Jhonny Peralta CLE *
Edgar Renteria SF *
Jose Reyes NYM *
Jimmy Rollins PHI *
Ramon Vazquez PIT

I think it's pretty obvious who their target should be. He is an all-star after all ;)

reds44
07-11-2010, 04:21 PM
Need. More. Offense.

Falls City Beer
07-11-2010, 04:28 PM
Need. More. Offense.

Long 11 game road trip against some great pitching. First offensive slump of the season. Not going to get too worked up about it. Though they probably could use more pop from the left side.

OnBaseMachine
07-11-2010, 04:34 PM
Amazing stat: In their last 23 games, the Reds have lost a game by the score of 1-0 four different times.

June 18th at Seattle
June 20th at Seattle
July 10th at Philadelphia
July 11st Philadelphia

I'd love to know when the last time a team lost four 1-0 games in a span of a month.

Falls City Beer
07-11-2010, 04:35 PM
Amazing stat: In their last 23 games, the Reds have lost a game by the score of 1-0 four different times.

June 18th at Seattle
June 20th at Seattle
July 10th at Philadelphia
July 11st Philadelphia

I'd love to know when the last time a team lost four 1-0 games in a span of a month.

Some brutal pitching in at least 3 of those 4 games. At least they're not getting shut out by Jeff Karstens.

alloverjr
07-11-2010, 04:38 PM
Long 11 game road trip against some great pitching. First offensive slump of the season. Not going to get too worked up about it. Though they probably could use more pop from the left side.

Don't know that they need more pop, but they are certainly headed into the 2nd half with 3 ?'s in the outfield and two aging guys on the left side. Bruce is probably counted on to do more than he's grown into right now, Stubbs will take awhile to adjust in the ML's if he ever does, and Gomes just came off a career's worth of stats in about a month and a half. Not sure you can count on another run like that. Rolen and Cabrera look flat gassed (as does Phillips whose younger). I would certainly explore the possibility of a LF or SS and hope you can get enough from everyone else. In fact, this offense looks flat putrid when it doesn't go yard same an inning here and there.

OnBaseMachine
07-11-2010, 04:42 PM
Some brutal pitching in at least 3 of those 4 games. At least they're not getting shut out by Jeff Karstens.

Other teams have to face those pitchers too. There's no excuse for getting shutout by Ryan Rowland-Smith, and though Cole Hamels is a good pitcher, he entered today having allowed 19 HR in a little over 100 IP.

IMO, the offense has played over their heads all season.

mdccclxix
07-11-2010, 04:43 PM
Need. More. Offense.

Cory Hart?

Falls City Beer
07-11-2010, 04:45 PM
Don't know that they need more pop, but they are certainly headed into the 2nd half with 3 ?'s in the outfield and two aging guys on the left side. Bruce is probably counted on to do more than he's grown into right now, Stubbs will take awhile to adjust in the ML's if he ever does, and Gomes just came off a career's worth of stats in about a month and a half. Not sure you can count on another run like that. Rolen and Cabrera look flat gassed (as does Phillips whose younger). I would certainly explore the possibility of a LF or SS and hope you can get enough from everyone else. In fact, this offense looks flat putrid when it doesn't go yard same an inning here and there.

So in other words, the offense is tired after a brutal road trip wherein they faced Santana, Hamels, Halladay, Lilly, Dempster. It happens.

mdccclxix
07-11-2010, 04:47 PM
I'll say this, that was the weirdest 4 game series I can ever remember. It feels like it lasted 2 weeks. Every game had incredibly odd circumstances. I come away feeling like we were very evenly matched from top to bottom with the Phils. Not that it's good enough.

Falls City Beer
07-11-2010, 04:49 PM
IMO, the offense has played over their heads all season.

They probably have a bit. Not sure if it's a tragedy if they end up being 2nd in virtually every offensive category known to man.

You guys are cherry-picking to slam the best offense in the NL. You're wasting your time.

GAC
07-11-2010, 04:54 PM
You guys are cherry-picking to slam the best offense in the NL

Redszone guilty of cherry-picking? Naaah!

CrackerJack
07-11-2010, 05:10 PM
Marty has a point in that they need to seriously think about Bruce as a platoon player.

There are other issues or improvements they could make to the lineup and/or bench, but Phillips and Gomes are struggling right now, as is Rolen, and without those guys hitting, combined with Bruce doing nothing at all offensively, it's a recipe for a .500 team or worse.

Better hope they learn how to handle tough lefties better and top of the rotation pitchers at some point.

3 shutouts in a week is really, really ugly. Its tough watching all of this starting pitching going to waste.

CrackerJack
07-11-2010, 05:16 PM
They probably have a bit. Not sure if it's a tragedy if they end up being 2nd in virtually every offensive category known to man.

You guys are cherry-picking to slam the best offense in the NL. You're wasting your time.

The problem is, at this rate, they'll be much further down the list than 2nd.

Ron Madden
07-11-2010, 05:20 PM
Marty has a point in that they need to seriously think about Bruce as a platoon player.

There are other issues or improvements they could make to the lineup and/or bench, but Phillips and Gomes are struggling right now, as is Rolen, and without those guys hitting, combined with Bruce doing nothing at all offensively, it's a recipe for a .500 team or worse.Better hope they learn how to handle tough lefties better and top of the rotation pitchers at some point.

3 shutouts in a week is really, really ugly. Its tough watching all of this starting pitching going to waste.

Jay Bruce has the third most XBH's of anyone on the Club.

Votto 39
Phillips 38
Bruce 34

Falls City Beer
07-11-2010, 05:24 PM
The problem is, at this rate, they'll be much further down the list than 2nd.

At what rate?

If they want Bruce to become a great hitter, they'll let him hit against lefties. It's a problem right now, no doubt, and Bruce may never develop the ability to hit lefties or he might not figure it out till he's expensive or FA (at which point we may have missed out on an opportunity to trade for someone who could be more productive in his cheap years). Kind of a bind, but I'd still start him in RF. He is still only 23 (though the clock is ticking cost/contract-wise).

I'd have no problem adding a big bat to the lineup, but I think that would be kind of a weird use of resources.

Falls City Beer
07-11-2010, 05:26 PM
By the way, the Reds scored plenty of runs on this trip; as recently as Friday they scored 7 in one game.

I really think the offense-whinging is a bit overstated.

OnBaseMachine
07-11-2010, 05:30 PM
I want the Reds to acquire another starting pitcher (Haren/Oswalt/Nolasco) and some bullpen help, but ... since April 25th, the Reds pitching staff is allowing 3.89 runs per game. Again, I think the Reds need to acquire a hammer at the top of the rotation but the pitching hasn't been the problem lately.

Mario-Rijo
07-11-2010, 05:38 PM
It'll sound a bit odd but I have gut hunch that Ramon won't be back or at least for quite some time. Surgically repaired knee that he couldn't even bend down into a crouch, not a good thing even if he comes back. I'd look to finding a guy who can come in right away and platoon with Hanigan and preferably spanish speaking with a bat from the left side. Looking around Miguel Montero of the D-Backs is who I'd target and not look back. If Ramon comes back at all he'll likely limp thru the rest of the season.

If you could make a swap for a better IF guy who can pick up the slack at 3B and SS (occ. at 2B) it would help though I can't see the Reds pursuing it thanks to Cairo and Janish's 1st half. But Alberto Callaspo is a good fit IMO for just this if they decided to look for one. Both guys give us more versatility as both hit from the left side (Callaspo a Switch hitter).

Volquez
Cueto
Arroyo
Wood
Leake

With Harang and Bailey due back at some point unless they deal someone I can't see them pursuing any starting pitching, Walt has practically said as much since Lee came off the market.

They may still go after a relief arm though at this juncture they will likely just wait it out until close to the deadline to see if they can sort it out with what they have internally.

Bottom line short of an unforeseen injury I doubt they make a move unless it's a backup positional player or a relief arm.

Some suspects:
Marmol/Putz/Leo Nunez
Counsell/Callaspo
Montero/J. Molina

reds1869
07-11-2010, 05:38 PM
Jay Bruce has the third most XBH's of anyone on the Club.

Votto 39
Phillips 38
Bruce 34

Not only that, but he is fast becoming one of the elite defensive outfielders in the game. His bat has yet to match his glove but it isn't really terrible.

fearofpopvol1
07-11-2010, 05:40 PM
Marty has a point in that they need to seriously think about Bruce as a platoon player.

There are other issues or improvements they could make to the lineup and/or bench, but Phillips and Gomes are struggling right now, as is Rolen, and without those guys hitting, combined with Bruce doing nothing at all offensively, it's a recipe for a .500 team or worse.

Better hope they learn how to handle tough lefties better and top of the rotation pitchers at some point.

3 shutouts in a week is really, really ugly. Its tough watching all of this starting pitching going to waste.

Bruce has already been 1.7 WAR...which means he is on pace for 3.5 by season's end. He's an above average player.

However, Jay Bruce does need to work on pitch recognition and laying off the low breaking stuff (especially against LHP). His K rate is 26% in total, but his walk rate is 10% and it has steadily improved each year, which is encouraging.

Personally, I'd like to see Dusty move Bruce up to the 2 hole...and move Cabrera to the 8 hole. Bruce will see better pitches in front of Votto and Rolen. As it stands now, Bruce usually bats 6th...with Stubbs behind him. Stubbs has the same plate problems Bruce does from the right side of the plate. It's a poor use of the lineup.

Dusty needs to do a better job of helping Bruce.

Mario-Rijo
07-11-2010, 05:42 PM
By the way, the Reds scored plenty of runs on this trip; as recently as Friday they scored 7 in one game.

I really think the offense-whinging is a bit overstated.

Doesn't hurt to project any issues you might have down the road even if people have played well to date. Though the Reds don't really do this because it's a convenient excuse not to spend money.

Falls City Beer
07-11-2010, 05:42 PM
I want the Reds to acquire another starting pitcher (Haren/Oswalt/Nolasco) and some bullpen help, but ... since April 25th, the Reds pitching staff is allowing 3.89 runs per game. Again, I think the Reds need to acquire a hammer at the top of the rotation but the pitching hasn't been the problem lately.

Yes, the pitching has improved, but even with that improvement it's still below average.

I guess what I'm trying to say is the same thing folks are now saying about the offense: what if this is the best the pitching has to offer? Arroyo's likely not going to be able to keep up his chainsaw-juggling on a unicycle act for the whole season, Leake's going to have slow down, Cordero's not improving, Volquez is a question mark.

Folks have been waiting for the offense to crumble for months, yet it hasn't happened. But the pitching has already been terrible at times. Not sure why they're given the pass. Depth is nice, but it's not production.

fearofpopvol1
07-11-2010, 05:44 PM
Yes, the pitching has improved, but even with that improvement it's still below average.

I guess what I'm trying to say is the same thing folks are now saying about the offense: what if this is the best the pitching has to offer? Arroyo's likely not going to be able to keep up his chainsaw-juggling on a unicycle act for the whole season, Leake's going to have slow down, Cordero's not improving, Volquez is a question mark.

Folks have been waiting for the offense to crumble for months, yet it hasn't happened. But the pitching has already been terrible at times. Not sure why they're given the pass. Depth is nice, but it's not production.

The rotation has been pretty good honestly. The bullpen is the issue. The rotation is middle of the pack. That's not great, but it's not horrible either, especially paired with this great offense you believe we have.

Mario-Rijo
07-11-2010, 05:48 PM
Yes, the pitching has improved, but even with that improvement it's still below average.

I guess what I'm trying to say is the same thing folks are now saying about the offense: what if this is the best the pitching has to offer? Arroyo's likely not going to be able to keep up his chainsaw-juggling on a unicycle act for the whole season, Leake's going to have slow down, Cordero's not improving, Volquez is a question mark.

Folks have been waiting for the offense to crumble for months, yet it hasn't happened. But the pitching has already been terrible at times. Not sure why they're given the pass. Depth is nice, but it's not production.

The starters are fine--at least until Homer and Harang come back those 2 were really hurting our ability to stay in games. The Pen has been a problem though it like the rotation has some upside. The offense has been way better than expected and I don't think anyone should chalk it all up to luck it still is playing over it's head and has nowhere to go but down.

Falls City Beer
07-11-2010, 05:50 PM
and has nowhere to go but down.

Probably, but resources/trade chips are limited. If I have to choose (and who knows, maybe they can get both pitching and hitting), but if I have to choose, I get a starting pitcher 100 times out of 100 in this situation.

mdccclxix
07-11-2010, 05:54 PM
I think getting Heisey some starts is an okay solution, but I'd rather rent:

Cory Hart
Adam Dunn
Willingham
DeJesus
Callaspo

Mario-Rijo
07-11-2010, 05:59 PM
Probably, but resources/trade chips are limited. If I have to choose (and who knows, maybe they can get both pitching and hitting), but if I have to choose, I get a starting pitcher 100 times out of 100 in this situation.

If there was someone who would be a sure thing upgrade and was realistic to acquire I'm with ya but I don't know there is a good match out there. Oswalt would be at the top of my list but come on we aren't gonna take on that kind of salary, so we'd have to empty the farm to get Houston to take on salary which I'm not sure they would even do for us. Not a real practical deal there to be made anyway you slice it.

Haren is the logical choice but again clean out the farm if Arizona is even gonna make any deals at this point. Is there even anyone else who qualifies as an obvious upgrade and who we could have a real shot at? I don't see them. In the pen sure but I think Walt hold off as long as possible to see if they work it out.

So might as well make some offensive upgrades but again Walt and Dusty will say there is nothing wrong with it so why tinker.

Falls City Beer
07-11-2010, 06:23 PM
So might as well make some offensive upgrades but again Walt and Dusty will say there is nothing wrong with it so why tinker.

I doubt that's Walt's thinking. He has always been an active player at the deadline. He may not make a deal because of budget constraints, but he won't be sitting on his hands. That's the opposite of his MO.

mth123
07-11-2010, 06:47 PM
It'll sound a bit odd but I have gut hunch that Ramon won't be back or at least for quite some time. Surgically repaired knee that he couldn't even bend down into a crouch, not a good thing even if he comes back. I'd look to finding a guy who can come in right away and platoon with Hanigan and preferably spanish speaking with a bat from the left side. Looking around Miguel Montero of the D-Backs is who I'd target and not look back. If Ramon comes back at all he'll likely limp thru the rest of the season.

If you could make a swap for a better IF guy who can pick up the slack at 3B and SS (occ. at 2B) it would help though I can't see the Reds pursuing it thanks to Cairo and Janish's 1st half. But Alberto Callaspo is a good fit IMO for just this if they decided to look for one. Both guys give us more versatility as both hit from the left side (Callaspo a Switch hitter).

Volquez
Cueto
Arroyo
Wood
Leake

With Harang and Bailey due back at some point unless they deal someone I can't see them pursuing any starting pitching, Walt has practically said as much since Lee came off the market.

They may still go after a relief arm though at this juncture they will likely just wait it out until close to the deadline to see if they can sort it out with what they have internally.

Bottom line short of an unforeseen injury I doubt they make a move unless it's a backup positional player or a relief arm.

Some suspects:
Marmol/Putz/Leo Nunez
Counsell/Callaspo
Montero/J. Molina

I've been thinking that the Reds may be w/o Hernandez for a while myself and it may be a way to add some balance. The White Sox want another arm and Tyler Flowers is ready to move up. Harang for AJ Perzynski. A lefty bat for a team that needs it. The Reds save a bit and get out from under Harang's buy-out.

Caveat Emperor
07-11-2010, 07:09 PM
I doubt that's Walt's thinking. He has always been an active player at the deadline. He may not make a deal because of budget constraints, but he won't be sitting on his hands. That's the opposite of his MO.

Especially after getting embarrassed for 4 straight games against a team that he, probably, considers the type of the team they'll need to beat if they want to make the post-season.

Walt will be looking to make a deal. If he wasn't certain of it, this pathetic road trip probably convinced him.

MikeS21
07-11-2010, 09:06 PM
Interesting that we are worried about an offense that a week ago was scoring 6-8 runs in a single inning.

The Reds just ran into some good pitchers this week who happened to be having extra good days. The Reds beat Roy Halladay a couple weeks ago.

I think the team will be fine. Add an OF bat by the dealine and take your chances.

mdccclxix
07-11-2010, 09:51 PM
Interesting that we are worried about an offense that a week ago was scoring 6-8 runs in a single inning.

The Reds just ran into some good pitchers this week who happened to be having extra good days. The Reds beat Roy Halladay a couple weeks ago.

I think the team will be fine. Add an OF bat by the dealine and take your chances.

Per Lance's blog, they lead the league in being shut out - 10 times.

Halladay
Santana
Rowland-Smith
Lee
Kuroda
Cain
Paulino
Carpenter
LeBlanc

Falls City Beer
07-11-2010, 09:54 PM
Per Lance's blog, they lead the league in being shut out - 10 times.

Halladay
Santana
Rowland-Smith
Lee
Kuroda
Cain
Paulino
Carpenter
LeBlanc

With only one exception, those are some tough customers.

Cedric
07-11-2010, 09:55 PM
Slugging dependent team. That usually leads to major explosions and major slumps.

It is what it is.

mdccclxix
07-11-2010, 09:57 PM
Slugging dependent team. That usually leads to major explosions and major slumps.

It is what it is.

That's why I've wanted to stand by Cabrera who was slap hitting and wasting tons of pitches for the first 2 months. He's made it awfully hard to stand with him though.

Cedric
07-11-2010, 10:15 PM
That's why I've wanted to stand by Cabrera who was slap hitting and wasting tons of pitches for the first 2 months. He's made it awfully hard to stand with him though.

Don't make the mistake of thinking low slugging means productive. This team needs guys that get on base and slug the ball, duh. Cabrera does neither.

As of right now the future success of the Reds offense depends on Gomes, Rolens back, and whoever hits 2nd.

I'm not exactly optimistic about this offense.

REDblooded
07-11-2010, 10:53 PM
Yeah... IMO, the best places this team can create a change would be at SS and RF...

Here are a few guys I'm looking at that I think could make a bit of an impact without breaking the bank...

1.) Alex Gordon... Perfect time to buy-low on a player. Is still only 26 years old, and gives you a player with upside at third base when you need to spell Rolen...
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=OF&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=460086

2.) Stephen Drew... With the DBacks selling, this would be a HUGE get. Can hit pretty much anywhere in the line-up, but especially seems to thrive from the lead-off or two holes... IMO, the perfect line-up would be Drew, Phillips, Votto, Bruce, Rolen, Gomes, Stubbs....

3.) Dexter Fowler... Young and Raw, but has top of the line speed, and knows how to take a walk...

Far East
07-11-2010, 10:58 PM
By the way, the Reds scored plenty of runs on this trip; as recently as Friday they scored 7 in one game...
Is there a way to assess how well the Reds hit in their blow-out victories compared to their lowest scoring games and/or compared to games in which they score their average number of runs per game (presently 4.8 runs or 5.0 rounded off)?

One would probably need to establish some arbitrary parameters about the number of runs that would qualify for the three categories (low, average, and high number of runs per game).

For example, an average game could be considered as being between 4.0 and 6.0 runs (calling below 4.0 runs a low scoring game and above 6.0 runs a high scoring game) and then compare the team's OBS, SLG, OPS etc. among those three categories.

If might be self-evident, but my gut feeling is that the Reds' hitters (perhaps this is true for all teams in all seasons) really inflate their stats in the blow-out games and are relatively flat in their average games and below average scoring.

If so, then the hitters perhaps should not be counted on (against contenders or playoff opponents) as much as the -- superficial -- stats appear to make them now look.