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fearofpopvol1
07-11-2010, 02:47 AM
For this year and next year?

So, we know that Walt and the Reds heavily coveted Lee, which means they want to upgrade the rotation. Haren has been mentioned as another possible pickup for the Reds and I'm sure there are a couple other pitchers the Reds may be looking at if a Haren deal doesn't work out.

Further, we've seen that Travis Wood looks pretty legitimate and it's going to be hard to send him down to the minors...so what the heck is going to happen this year and beyond?

For 2010:

Pitcher X that Walt is coveting from another team (maybe?)
Cueto
Arroyo
Harang (injured)
Wood
Leake
Bailey (injured)
Volquez
Maloney

Maloney is obviously not a factor. He'll be sent down once Harang is back and I don't think Harang's injury is serious. Bailey's injury looks to be serious. I'm not sure he should or even will be in the equation for this year, unless he moves into a relief role. In theory, that would leave...

Cueto
Volquez
Harang
Arroyo
Wood
Leake

But what if Walt goes after a stud? Does Wood get traded as part of that deal? Leake is going to be cut off at some point due to the overload in innings. But if the Reds keep Wood this year, shouldn't his innings be limited as well? He's only 1 year older than Leake. Would you move Harang to the bullpen? Walt originally said Volquez would be bullpen bound, but I just don't see it, especially after his last start at AAA. He's likely penciled in after the break.

So moving on to next year...the possibilities for the rotation are...

Pitcher X that Walt is coveting from another team (POSSIBLY)
Cueto
Arroyo
Harang
Wood
Leake
Bailey
Volquez
Chapman

I think Harang's option is not picked up. I don't think Walt will keep both Arroyo and said pitcher he is coveting if he gets them. It would just be too expensive for the Reds...so it would likely be one or the other. So that leaves as possible options...

Pitcher X OR Arroyo
Cueto
Volquez
Wood
Leake
Bailey
Chapman (if he is ready)

Chapman needs to continue to work in AAA...he's not ready now, but next year he may be. The Reds did not pony up $30M to keep him in AAA or use him as a reliever. The recent emergence of Wood may slow down Chapman's track to the majors though, which would be for the better I think. Wood could be traded to land the Reds some useful players. Bailey has no options left, so he's likely bullpen bound or traded as he looks like the odd man out (if the Reds keep Wood). Walt could be ballsy and go with a completely young rotation of Cueto, Volquez, Wood, Leake and Chapman/Bailey, but that just doesn't seem likely. Injuries have to be considered too, which could change things.

A lot of tough choices to make...I'm glad I'm not the GM. What do you think will happen? What would you do?

The Operator
07-11-2010, 03:19 AM
I don't think we can count on Homer for anything at this point. Even next year. I'm done expecting anything from that guy. I know it's not his fault he's injured, but even before the injury he was very inconsistent this year. If he pans out, great. But I hope The Reds don't enter next year expecting anything from him.

This is probably Harang's last year here, unless he comes back on a SEVERE pay cut. I have a feeling he'll head west.

I'd like for Walt to acquire 1 more starting pitcher. Haren or Oswalt, either one would be great. Depends when you ask me, which one I prefer. Either one would give The Reds a respected, established ace at the top.

For the rest of this year:
Haren / Oswalt (hopefully)
Arroyo
Cueto
Wood
Leake / Volquez
Harang, etc.

Next year:
Haren / Oswalt (hopefully)
Arroyo
Cueto
Leake
Wood
Volquez

I realize that's 6 pitcher for 5 spots. That's a great thing. Oh, and there's also some Cuban guy in the mix, too. Throws real hard.

Although, I suppose Wood might end up being a part of a trade for another starter, although I hope not. He has impressed the heck out of me since his callup. I'd like The Reds to make every effort to keep him out of whatever trade they may or may not end up making.

fearofpopvol1
07-11-2010, 01:59 PM
I just can't see the Reds keeping Arroyo and adding another starting pitcher from the outside. I could be wrong though.

RedsManRick
07-11-2010, 02:03 PM
Assuming, health I'd say that these guys are locks:

Cueto
Leake
Wood
Volquez

The question is how you go about getting the best possible pitcher to add to that group.

nate
07-11-2010, 02:05 PM
Don't have the link here but someone recently posted an Arroyo interview about coming back at a discount a la Rolen and, although I don't remember exactly what he said, the jist of it was "no" bordering on "hell no."

So, maybe bringing in someone from the outside is a possibility. Is Arroyo worth his option for a year? IOW, is he better than someone we could sign in FA?

I'm not sure.

TheNext44
07-11-2010, 02:17 PM
Don't have the link here but someone recently posted an Arroyo interview about coming back at a discount a la Rolen and, although I don't remember exactly what he said, the jist of it was "no" bordering on "hell no."

So, maybe bringing in someone from the outside is a possibility. Is Arroyo worth his option for a year? IOW, is he better than someone we could sign in FA?

I'm not sure.

Here's the list. I don't see anyone, outside of Lee, that is definitely better than Arroyo. A few could be cheaper and just as good, however.

I think the best best is a trade for Oswalt or Haren or Marcum, or Carbona, or whoever is available this trading deadline.

Starting pitchers
Bronson Arroyo (34) - $11MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Erik Bedard (32) - $8MM mutual option
Kris Benson (35)
Jeremy Bonderman (28)
Dave Bush (31)
Jose Contreras (39)
Kevin Correia (30)
Doug Davis (35) - $6.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Jorge De La Rosa (30)
Justin Duchscherer (33)
Shawn Estes (38)
Josh Fogg (34)
Jeff Francis (29) - $7MM club option
Freddy Garcia (35)
Jon Garland (31) - $6.75MM mutual option with a $600K buyout
Chad Gaudin (28)
Rich Harden (29) - $11MM mutual option with $1MM buyout
Aaron Harang (33) - $12.75MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Livan Hernandez (36)
Jason Jennings (32)
Hiroki Kuroda (36)
Cliff Lee (32)
Ted Lilly (35)
Rodrigo Lopez (35)
Kevin Millwood (36)
Sergio Mitre (30)
Brian Moehler (39)
Jamie Moyer (48)
Brett Myers (30) - $8MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout
Vicente Padilla (33)
Carl Pavano (35)
Brad Penny (33)
Andy Pettitte (39)
Tim Redding (33)
Nate Robertson (33)
Ben Sheets (32)
Jeff Suppan (36) - $12.75MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Brett Tomko (38)
Koji Uehara (36)
Javier Vazquez (34)
Brandon Webb (32)
Todd Wellemeyer (32)
Kip Wells (34)
Jake Westbrook (33)
Dontrelle Willis (29)
Chris Young (32) - $8.5MM club option

fearofpopvol1
07-11-2010, 02:24 PM
Assuming, health I'd say that these guys are locks:

Cueto
Leake
Wood
Volquez

The question is how you go about getting the best possible pitcher to add to that group.

What about Chapman though? The Reds are not paying him $30M to stay in AAA or be a reliever I'd have to believe.

nate
07-11-2010, 02:37 PM
Here's the list. I don't see anyone, outside of Lee, that is definitely better than Arroyo. A few could be cheaper and just as good, however.

I think the best best is a trade for Oswalt or Haren or Marcum, or Carbona, or whoever is available this trading deadline.

Starting pitchers

An uninspiring lot to be sure. I might take a look at Brad Penny. Maybe Brandon Webb.

RedsManRick
07-11-2010, 02:46 PM
What about Chapman though? The Reds are not paying him $30M to stay in AAA or be a reliever I'd have to believe.

I don't think he's going to help this team as a reliever this year. Nor would I want to count on him as a starter in our rotation next year.

The $30M is irrelevant at this point. They're paying him to be the best pitcher he can be. If he forces his way in to the rotation, great. But until and unless he can get that walk rate down, he's not going to be a help to the Reds.

It would be a different story if he was dominating AAA. But he's not.

RedsManRick
07-11-2010, 02:47 PM
That very uninspiring list of FA, short of Cliff Lee, is another reason why I'd be going after Danny Haren.

fearofpopvol1
07-11-2010, 02:59 PM
I don't think he's going to help this team as a reliever this year. Nor would I want to count on him as a starter in our rotation next year.

The $30M is irrelevant at this point. They're paying him to be the best pitcher he can be. If he forces his way in to the rotation, great. But until and unless he can get that walk rate down, he's not going to be a help to the Reds.

It would be a different story if he was dominating AAA. But he's not.

I don't disagree with you per se, but I just don't think the Reds will see the $30M as irrelevant. I think it will weigh into some decision making. I'm not saying it should, but that it likely will.

mth123
07-11-2010, 03:07 PM
I don't disagree with you per se, but I just don't think the Reds will see the $30M as irrelevant. I think it will weigh into some decision making. I'm not saying it should, but that it likely will.

But his salary this year and next year is only $1 Million per year. Its not like he is eating up $5 or $6 Million per year in the minors. He can and probably should start 2011 in AAA. Just need to get him back in the rotation down there. He needs to be ready to be a starter by the time the cost really does go up and fooling with these relief outings is not helping him build his IP nor work on his command or secondary stuff.

fearofpopvol1
07-11-2010, 03:18 PM
But his salary this year and next year is only $1 Million per year. Its not like he is eating up $5 or $6 Million per year in the minors. He can and probably should start 2011 in AAA. Just need to get him back in the rotation down there. He needs to be ready to be a starter by the time the cost really does go up and fooling with these relief outings is not helping him build his IP nor work on his command or secondary stuff.

I think the Reds are counting on Chapman to come out of the pen this year.

_Sir_Charles_
07-11-2010, 03:21 PM
I'm not seeing how Maloney is OBVIOUSLY not a factor.

The young starters have shown that they are MORE than capable of starting in the bigs IMO. Today is just another example IMO. 5.1 ip of 1 run 4 hit ball today so far against the Phillies. Maloney IS a factor.

mth123
07-11-2010, 03:33 PM
I think the Reds are counting on Chapman to come out of the pen this year.

Throws hard, walks a lot of guys, all over the place. If the intent is for him to replace Cordero, he's got the MO down. Maybe he needs to go on an eating binge.

I hope they aren't counting on him. The Reds need help at the end of the pen. Chapman won't pitch there even if he's on the team. The team would be better served by giving more innings to Bray and Ondrusek while backing off on Cordero and Rhodes a bit. Heck, Phil Valiquette may be a better idea.

fearofpopvol1
07-11-2010, 03:35 PM
I'm not seeing how Maloney is OBVIOUSLY not a factor.

The young starters have shown that they are MORE than capable of starting in the bigs IMO. Today is just another example IMO. 5.1 ip of 1 run 4 hit ball today so far against the Phillies. Maloney IS a factor.

He's not. His stuff is not that good. He has pitched a very good game today, but he's not better than any of the other options listed.

fearofpopvol1
07-11-2010, 03:36 PM
Throws hard, walks a lot of guys, all over the place. If the intent is for him to replace Cordero, he's got the MO down. Maybe he needs to go on an eating binge.

I hope they aren't counting on him. The Reds need help at the end of the pen. Chapman won't pitch there even if he's on the team. The team would be better served by giving more innings to Bray and Ondrusek while backing off on Cordero and Rhodes a bit. Heck, Phil Valiquette may be a better idea.

I don't think they moved Chapman out of the rotation in June with the thought of him not pitching in Cincy this year in the pen.

mth123
07-11-2010, 03:44 PM
I don't think they moved Chapman out of the rotation in June with the thought of him not pitching in Cincy this year in the pen.

Agreed, but hopefully his poor performance has brought them to their senses. He needs a starter's innings to develop stamina, command and secondary stuff. As a reliever the advantage would be a quick call-up, but he would just add another pitcher to the pen that we don't really want to see coming into the game and walking the ball park.

Rojo
07-11-2010, 03:57 PM
Lot's of depth but nobody's stepped up to The Ace plate. I like Harang more than most, but not for the option money. Time to channel that money into a one-a.

Arroyo's declining K-rate scares me but he's durable and got brass ones.

Volquez to the pen still intrigues me. He's a smallish, intense, high-k pitcher. Next year he could K-rod to Cordero's Percival.

Maloney will always be more effective than he's given credit for but I don't want him in the pen. His value comes from eating innings. And keeping him keeps the pressure off Leake and Chapman.

How do you a solve a problem like Bailey?

Falls City Beer
07-11-2010, 04:00 PM
Lot's of depth but nobody's stepped up to The Ace plate. I like Harang more than most, but not for the option money. Time to channel that money into a one-a.

Arroyo's declining K-rate scares me but he's durabile and got brass ones.

Volquez to the pen still intrigues me. He's a smallish, intense, high-k pitcher. Next year he could K-rod to Cordero's Percival.

Maloney will always be more effective than he's given credit for but I don't want him in the pen. His value comes from eating innings. And keeping him keeps the pressue off Leake and Chapman.

How do you a solve a problem like Bailey?

Cordero's more late-era Rod Beck than he is any-era Percival. If I had to wager I'd say one of Volquez or Chapman becomes the bullpen horse. I agree there.

Rojo
07-11-2010, 04:24 PM
Cordero's more late-era Rod Beck than he is any-era Percival.

Meet you half way. Even at his best, Cordero's a good closer, not a great one. And great ones win rings. Volquez could be a great one.

LoganBuck
07-11-2010, 04:27 PM
It would be nice to see Homer Bailey throwing like he did last August and September as well.

SMcGavin
07-11-2010, 04:38 PM
Maloney will always be more effective than he's given credit for but I don't want him in the pen. His value comes from eating innings. And keeping him keeps the pressure off Leake and Chapman.

How do you a solve a problem like Bailey?

Right on about Maloney. Not someone I'd be terribly excited about moving to the pen. But with the emergence of Leake and Wood, he's not going to be getting a rotation spot. Don't know about his trade value, but at the very least it sure is nice having a guy of his caliber available as your #6 starter.

Bailey - I really think his time in the Reds rotation is over. Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez, Leake, Harang, Wood. How's he going to beat out two of those guys?