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View Full Version : Arroyo Wants To Stay w/ Cincinnati Past '10



RedLegSuperStar
07-11-2010, 12:08 PM
Arroyo Talks About The 2006 Trade & Being A Red (http://www.boston.com/yourtown/medford/articles/2010/07/11/arroyo_has_dealt_well_with_life_in_cincinnati/)

VR
07-11-2010, 12:17 PM
I'd do it in a heartbeat.

reds1869
07-11-2010, 01:33 PM
Arroyo is the biggest no-brainer decision facing this club. Barring a two month long Arroyo Meltdown TM, #61should be in the Reds rotation next year. He has been a rock for this club and will continue to be if given the chance.

RedLegSuperStar
07-11-2010, 01:38 PM
Arroyo is the biggest no-brainer decision facing this club. Barring a two month long Arroyo Meltdown TM, #61should be in the Reds rotation next year. He has been a rock for this club and will continue to be if given the chance.

Arroyo was asked if he would restructure his contract.. this is what unfolded..


If Bronson Arroyo is going to be a Red next year, it’s going to be at the $11 million salary his option calls for.

Arroyo said he would not consider extending his contract at discount rate like Scott Rolen did.

“Not in a million years,” Arroyo said. “Scott’s in a different position than I’m in. He’s in a position where he feels like he’s only got a couple years left in the game. He wanted to retire in this uniform. It’s close to his friends and family. He restructured because he’s made $150 million in the game or whatever it is.

“I’m not in the same boat.”

Given what Arroyo said, the Reds might consider moving him before the deadline. The club has a surplus of starting pitching.

Edinson Volquez and Aaron Harang are about to come off the disabled list.

Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake and Travis Wood aren’t going anywhere. Homer Bailey will come off the DL at some point.

Arroyo has been very good. He is 9-4 with a 4.04 ERA. He’s thrown 120 1/3 innings.

There’s no question the Reds can use Arroyo for the pennant drive. But he would be very hot commodity on the trade market. If the Reds don’t plan on picking up the option, it might be wise to move him. If they don’t pick up option, they have to pay a $2 million buyout.

It’s easy to understand Arroyo’s position. Arroyo signed a 3-year, $11.25-million deal with Boston in January of 2006 – only to be traded to the Reds in March of that year.

“I gave a team a discount one time and they burned me,” he said.

Arroyo is 33.

“This is probably the last chance I’ll get to sign a good multi-year deal,” he said. “Nobody’s going to get paid good at 38. Not that it’s impossible.”

All that said, Arroyo would like to return.

“But I’m not going to stay for a discount,” he said. “I’ve done that once. Loyalty in this game is the upmost. I got to look out for me.”

Arroyo thinks he’d get a big deal on the open market.

“For what I’ve done the last six years in this game,” he said, “to sign back for less than what my option is would be insane. The quality starts and the number of innings I’ve thrown up over the years less than five dudes in this game have done that.”

I can't see trading him unless the Reds get Haren.. I can't see either happening to be honest with you.. Arroyo is vital to this team and its shot at a division title

_Sir_Charles_
07-11-2010, 01:47 PM
I'm not sure there's another player in all of MLB who would've answered that question honestly. Seriously. I love Bronson's candor. Some people might not like to hear him say that he'd never consider a discount or taking less money...I like his honesty and I agree with him.

Ron Madden
07-11-2010, 01:47 PM
Arroyo was asked if he would restructure his contract.. this is what unfolded..



I can't see trading him unless the Reds get Haren.. I can't see either happening to be honest with you.. Arroyo is vital to this team and its shot at a division title

If I could get a good young SS in return I'd trade him before the deadline.

Brutus
07-11-2010, 01:49 PM
Arroyo is the biggest no-brainer decision facing this club. Barring a two month long Arroyo Meltdown TM, #61should be in the Reds rotation next year. He has been a rock for this club and will continue to be if given the chance.

I would love to have him back - but not at $11 mil. If the Reds didn't now have Cueto, Volquez, Leake, Wood, Chapman, Bailey, etc., it would have become tempting. Now, though, that $11 million can be reinvested elsewhere.

reds1869
07-11-2010, 01:52 PM
I would love to have him back - but not at $11 mil. If the Reds didn't now have Cueto, Volquez, Leake, Wood, Chapman, Bailey, etc., it would have become tempting. Now, though, that $11 million can be reinvested elsewhere.

Though it does become only $9 million saved after the buyout. I think $11 million is fair value for a pitcher of Arroyo's almost guaranteed production. That said, I wouldn't be against the idea of moving him for a quality SS as mentioned above.

kbrake
07-11-2010, 02:02 PM
Love Arroyo's honesty. Its refreshing to hear someone in sports talk like that.

The Operator
07-11-2010, 02:14 PM
I think he'll be here next year - but if the young pitching keeps developing at a decent rate, I'd say he's somewhere else in 2012.

And, if The Reds are out of the race next year, he might net a decent package of prospects. Not great, but decent.

osuceltic
07-11-2010, 02:16 PM
The idea of trading him now is insane. Have we really been away from a pennant race so long that we forget entirely what it means and how to act?

Ron Madden
07-11-2010, 02:31 PM
The idea of trading him now is insane. Have we really been away from a pennant race so long that we forget entirely what it means and how to act?

Not really. Arroyo has been very valuable to the Reds and could be very valuable going down the stretch this year. He could also be very valuable to the Reds long term success as a trading chip.

osuceltic
07-11-2010, 02:37 PM
Not really. Arroyo has been very valuable to the Reds and could be very valuable going down the stretch this year. He could also be very valuable to the Reds long term success as a trading chip.

Insane.

Ron Madden
07-11-2010, 02:43 PM
Insane.

OK.


Thanks for the discussion.

Brutus
07-11-2010, 02:46 PM
Not really. Arroyo has been very valuable to the Reds and could be very valuable going down the stretch this year. He could also be very valuable to the Reds long term success as a trading chip.

I don't think Arroyo would fetch enough of a return to justify doing such a thing in the middle of a pennant race. If they needed to clear salary because they were bringing in a Dan Haren, it would not be a terrible decision. Otherwise, Arroyo's durability and number of above-average innings down the stretch would be a great benefit to the Reds. Plus, he's the most seasoned guy they have for pitching in the playoffs if the Reds get there.

fearofpopvol1
07-11-2010, 03:13 PM
I think Arroyo's "honesty" is a blessing and a curse. I don't think there's anything wrong with what he said per se, but I don't think Arroyo comes off sounding like a great guy. Some of the stuff he said is probably best saved behind closed doors or for his agent to relay. I don't fault him for his honesty...it's his choice to say whatever he wants. Arroyo has already made what...$50+ million? I don't think he's been shafted too much.

I do like Arroyo a lot though with that said. If someone blew me over with an offer, I'd trade him at the deadline. But I think trading Arroyo at the deadline only makes sense if the Reds grab another starter that is better. It's sort of the same thing for next year. If the Reds don't pick up another starter, I'd like to keep Arroyo for next year too. After that though, I'd cut him loose.

Can an expert on arbitration tell me if the Reds could offer that this year or next year and if it were this year, would Arroyo fetch a pick?

Brutus
07-11-2010, 03:17 PM
I think Arroyo's "honesty" is a blessing and a curse. I don't think there's anything wrong with what he said per se, but I don't think Arroyo comes off sounding like a great guy. Some of the stuff he said is probably best saved behind closed doors or for his agent to relay. I don't fault him for his honesty...it's his choice to say whatever he wants. Arroyo has already made what...$50+ million? I don't think he's been shafted too much.

I do like Arroyo a lot though with that said. If someone blew me over with an offer, I'd trade him at the deadline. But I think trading Arroyo at the deadline only makes sense if the Reds grab another starter that is better. It's sort of the same thing for next year. If the Reds don't pick up another starter, I'd like to keep Arroyo for next year too. After that though, I'd cut him loose.

Can an expert on arbitration tell me if the Reds could offer that this year or next year and if it were this year, would Arroyo fetch a pick?

Can't offer arbitration during an option season (so 2011 is out). He, if I'm not mistake, profiles right now as a Type-B guy, so the Reds could get a sandwich pick after next season if he had an option exercised and remained as a Type-B.

RedsManRick
07-11-2010, 03:50 PM
In theory, I wouldn't mind having Arroyo as part of the rotation. But with Volquez, Cueto, Leake, and Wood, I'd rather have a higher upside guy in that 5th spot. If the Reds can make a move to get a legit #1 type guy, I'd let him walk and use the money elsewhere. If not, free agency is pretty barrent and I'd just as soon have Arroyo.

WebScorpion
07-11-2010, 04:09 PM
Arroyo may be the make or break decision for this team going forward, I'm not sure I'd want to be the guy making that decision. At times Bronson can be dominating...at other times he's a batting practice pitcher, but for the most part he consistently keeps the team in the game and gives them a chance to win. His biggest strength is the fact he rarely misses a start...something really good to have on a team full of flamethrowing youngsters who regularly miss big chunks of seasons. For 2011, the question will be if the $11 million would be better invested elsewhere. That depends on the development of Cueto, Volquez, Leake, Bailey, Wood, and Chapman. Except for Chapman, each of these guys has shown that they can pitch a single game as well as, or better than, Arroyo. But can any of them, or all of them combined, provide the consistency he gives us? At this point I couldn't say, but for some reason I doubt it. Leake is the only one who MIGHT provide that kind of durability and consistency, but the others continue to miss starts due to various aches and ailments. Besides, do we dare go into a season with Volquez as the senior member of our rotation? I think the Rolen trade demonstrated the value of the right veteran leadership. I'd say if we let Arroyo walk, we'd need to pick up a different veteran who would likely cost more than Arroyo. :dunno: If it were my decision, I'd keep him.
It would be a bold move, and probably insane, to go into 2011 with a Volquez, Cueto, Leake, Wood, Bailey/Chapman rotation but you'd have a ton of money to buy a top flight shortstop or left fielder. :D It will be interesting to see what Jocketty does. ;)

Cyclone792
07-11-2010, 04:11 PM
Pick up Arroyo's 2011 option and put him in the rotation for next season. If the Reds are in the 2011 race, keep him for the duration of the season, then offer arb and take the compensation pick (he'll nab Type B unless he gets injured). If the Reds fall out of the race, check his market value and ship him out if the Reds feel they can get a return that would be greater than the comp pick. Otherwise, keep him the whole year, offer arb and take the pick.

tripleaaaron
07-12-2010, 12:32 AM
I for one don't find his comments "refreshing", I find them to be arrogant and a brand of self promoting that isn't needed at this time. I agree that he is free to say as he pleases, but self promoting while the team is in the midst of a playoff push seems to be the typical, selfish Arroyo. Can't pitch day games because he is at the bar all night, basically saying he does what he wants in regards to PED's, carpal tunnel due to not laying down the guitar during the season and now saying only a handful of "dudes" can do what I do.

While I don't pretend to know what he is like in the clubhouse, he definitely doesn't seem like a team player. I can understand his sentiments (and for the most part, agree with his approach to the business side of things) but to express them in the manner they were expressed during a very successful season sounds to me like a player more worried about the next contract than winning a world series. While this really doesn't impact his play on the field in anyway whatsoever, I really don't like that rubbing off on our multitude of young arms.
I would move him if it netted us a young SS or got us a shutdown reliever (as well as prospects) AND was a precursor to acquiring a TOR starter. I would only exercise his option if Volquez had a setback or if several of our young guns stumble down the stretch or suffer injury. I would much rather see the $9 mil go to Votto in an extension or to shore up other areas.

kaldaniels
07-12-2010, 12:58 AM
I for one don't find his comments "refreshing", I find them to be arrogant and a brand of self promoting that isn't needed at this time. I agree that he is free to say as he pleases, but self promoting while the team is in the midst of a playoff push seems to be the typical, selfish Arroyo. Can't pitch day games because he is at the bar all night, basically saying he does what he wants in regards to PED's, carpal tunnel due to not laying down the guitar during the season and now saying only a handful of "dudes" can do what I do.

While I don't pretend to know what he is like in the clubhouse, he definitely doesn't seem like a team player. I can understand his sentiments (and for the most part, agree with his approach to the business side of things) but to express them in the manner they were expressed during a very successful season sounds to me like a player more worried about the next contract than winning a world series. While this really doesn't impact his play on the field in anyway whatsoever, I really don't like that rubbing off on our multitude of young arms.
I would move him if it netted us a young SS or got us a shutdown reliever (as well as prospects) AND was a precursor to acquiring a TOR starter. I would only exercise his option if Volquez had a setback or if several of our young guns stumble down the stretch or suffer injury. I would much rather see the $9 mil go to Votto in an extension or to shore up other areas.

I may be off base but I think those examples are out of date and are being distorted.

dabvu2498
07-12-2010, 07:53 AM
I may be off base but I think those examples are out of date and are being distorted.

In 2010: 8 day starts: 3.71 ERA. 10 night starts: 4.30 ERA.

hebroncougar
07-12-2010, 08:31 AM
I'd love to have him back, but I'm not sure I'd pay Bronson what HE thinks he's worth.

KoryMac5
07-12-2010, 08:57 AM
I would look to deal Arroyo and if a good deal can't be found you pick up his option for next season. I always hate to deal pitching, especially durable pitching but I think the Reds can absorb the hit if he is dealt for a good position player.

oneupper
07-12-2010, 09:17 AM
While he says there's no discount for his current team, its obvious that if there's a decent deal on the table from the REDS, he'd probably take it instead of shopping around for a couple million more. Right now, he can't negotiate with anyone else anyway.

From the REDS perspective, however, I'm with KoryMac5. Since there is no hometown discount, Arroyo can become a very nice trading chip. You can deal him in the offseason if you think you're deep enough in the rotation OR (and preferably IMO), you pick up the option for 2011 and if you're out of it, you deal him at the deadline.

I like Arroyo a lot, but business is business. BTW I find nothing wrong with what Arroyo said. A little self-promotion without getting into that silly "respect" and "disrespect" stuff that athletes get into around these issues. Fine.

IslandRed
07-12-2010, 09:42 AM
I like Arroyo a lot, but business is business. BTW I find nothing wrong with what Arroyo said. A little self-promotion without getting into that silly "respect" and "disrespect" stuff that athletes get into around these issues. Fine.

Agree. He's been one of the NL's workhorses for the last 4+ seasons and he's right, this will likely be his last chance to cash in on that performance.

REDREAD
07-12-2010, 10:30 AM
Definitely exercise his option next year. Definitely do not trade him this year

Trading Bronson this year is a John Allen move.

I would talk extension with Bronson. If he's willing to take another year or two beyond 2011 at around 11 million, I probably do it. You can never have enough good starting pitching. As impressive as the youngsters are, very seldom is a pennant won with a rotation full of youngsters. Plus, if resigning Arroyo gives the team a pitching surplus, one of the younsters can be traded.

I have a feeling that Bronson is not going to extend his deal unless he is blown over. I totally understand that, after Boston screwed him over. So after 2011, I'd offer him arbitration and let him shop himself around. He would probably be less expensive to resign that way. If he does accept arb, it's not the end of the world.

Sea Ray
07-12-2010, 11:02 AM
I think only idiot sportswriters would even bring up the idea of trading him now. We still control him next year. We're in 1st pace at the All Star break. I don't see any reason to trade him now. None

Slyder
07-12-2010, 11:23 AM
I think he'll be here next year - but if the young pitching keeps developing at a decent rate, I'd say he's somewhere else in 2012.

And, if The Reds are out of the race next year, he might net a decent package of prospects. Not great, but decent.

I don't trade him unless it nets a GREAT package (and by great means makes Lee's deal look pitiful). He is one of our most dependable arms in the staff (if not the most dependable) and we are in the race. I love his honesty tells you exactly where you're at and what he expects. Doesn't have to drag everyone along for a month. I also have no problems with him stating he'd test the market he hasnt had the huge multi year deals like some and this maybe his last shot to get it. I wouldnt think twice at exercising the option if a 2-3 year extension couldnt be hashed out.

Chip R
07-12-2010, 11:59 AM
I would love to keep Bronson here for a few more years. Not only can he pitch but I think he is a mentor to the younger pitchers. However, I don't want to pay him what he's making now for the next 3-4 years. I think he's misjudging the market if he thinks he's going to get a multi-year deal from another team for what he's making now or more. He'll be 34 going into next season and while that's not ancient for a pitcher, if you're not Nolan Ryan or Randy Johnson, you may not get the big money and the long term deal you are looking for.

lollipopcurve
07-12-2010, 12:19 PM
If they determine they have a legitimate shot at Oswalt, they should be looking to deal Arroyo, IMO. A prospect from an Arroyo deal could help net Oswalt....

Jpup
07-12-2010, 03:46 PM
I don't mind Arroyo and think he has value, but he's not worth 11 million to the Reds. I don't believe he'll get that anywhere else. He might get 2 years and 18 million somewhere, but that might be pushing it. A three way trade would be ideal.

Ron Madden
07-12-2010, 04:18 PM
I don't mind Arroyo and think he has value, but he's not worth 11 million to the Reds. I don't believe he'll get that anywhere else. He might get 2 years and 18 million somewhere, but that might be pushing it. A three way trade would be ideal.

He'll get more than that.

Brutus
07-12-2010, 04:24 PM
He'll get more than that.

In a suppressed market? I'll take that action.

TheNext44
07-12-2010, 04:35 PM
He'll get more than that.

Likely. He looks like the Belle of the Ball this offseason. Probably the best starting pitcher free agent. Some one will over pay for him.

His biggest drawback is his age, but he also has never been injured. 200 innings is worth a lot these days.

Depending on how the rotation looks at the end of the season, I'd seriously consider picking up his option.

Caveat Emperor
07-12-2010, 04:44 PM
He'll get more than that.

Someone out there will give him a Jeff Suppan type deal - 4y / $35-$40m. He's got a clean injury history, eats innings, and pitches at above league-average level.

Sea Ray
07-12-2010, 05:16 PM
Likely. He looks like the Belle of the Ball this offseason. Probably the best starting pitcher free agent.

Really? Then what does that make Cliff Lee?

TheNext44
07-12-2010, 07:24 PM
Really? Then what does that make Cliff Lee?

Lee will miss the Ball spending all the money the Yanks give him. ;)

Good catch, I missed that one. But it's hard to consider him a free agent, when he's half way in the Yankee pocket already.

Spitball
07-12-2010, 11:07 PM
For what it's worth, I found this on Cot's. Where is Harang?


Starting pitchers
The highest-paid active starting pitchers, by average annual value:

C.C. Sabathia, $23,000,000 (2009-15)
Johan Santana, $22,916,667 (2008-13)
Roy Halladay, $20,000,000 (2011-13)

Carlos Zambrano, $18,300,000 (2008-12)
Barry Zito, $18,000,000 (2007-13)
Jake Peavy, $17,333,333 (2010-12)
A.J. Burnett, $16,500,000 (2009-13)
John Lackey, $16,500,000 (2010-14)

Justin Verlander, $16,000,000 (2010-14)

Jason Schmidt, $15,666,667 (2007-09)
Felix Hernandez, $15,600,000 (2010-14)

Derek Lowe, $15,000,000 (2009-12)
Roy Oswalt, $14,600,000 (2007-11)
Mark Buehrle, $14,000,000 (2008-11)

Roy Halladay, $13,333,333 (2008-10)
Ryan Dempster, $13,000,000 (2009-12)

Chris Carpenter, $12,700,000 (2008-11)
Bronson Arroyo, $12,500,000 (2009-10)
Kevin Millwood, $12,000,000 (2006-10)

VR
07-12-2010, 11:11 PM
For what it's worth, I found this on Cot's. Where is Harang?

Arroyo is quite the bargain.

Spitball
07-12-2010, 11:29 PM
For what it's worth, I found this on Cot's. Where is Harang?

I just realized he wouldn't make the list based on the four years of his contract.

KronoRed
07-12-2010, 11:48 PM
Exercise the option and see what happens, don't jump to offer him a new deal.

Ron Madden
07-13-2010, 03:37 AM
In a suppressed market? I'll take that action.

If the Reds were to for some reason decline the 2011 option they have with Arroyo I'm sure another Club would sign him to a better deal than Jpup suggested. A two year 18 million dollar contract is 9 million dollars a season, that's less than he makes now and he's a bargain now.

edabbs44
01-12-2011, 12:56 PM
Not that it kills me but it's weird that BA is still making comments like this, especially after Cincy gave him that extension so recently.


Arroyo’s love for Boston endures. It’s hard not to get the impression that the lanky and durable starter rock-and-roller wants to come back and pitch for the Red Sox.

Arroyo does not resist the idea.

“Boston always feels like home,’’ he said. “Even though I can safely say that I’ve cemented myself in Cincinnati for a while, this definitely still feels like home and in the back of my mind I know that there is no better place to play than in Fenway Park [map].’’



http://bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view/20110112bronson_arroyo_keeps_tune_with_sox/

Unassisted
01-12-2011, 01:10 PM
Not that it kills me but it's weird that BA is still making comments like this, especially after Cincy gave him that extension so recently.
He's "weird" in that he is notorious for speaking his mind, rather than filtering his words to eliminate anything that might offend. I haven't decided whether it's refreshing or just brash. It's definitely unusual.

camisadelgolf
01-12-2011, 01:11 PM
Yeah, it's definitely a little weird. I can't blame him for his opinions, but it doesn't seem very tactful for him to express them imho. Regardless, he's being honest, and I still like him for at least that much.

remdog
01-12-2011, 01:22 PM
To a large degree I like it when a player falls 'in love' with a city. If I'm a fan of that city, on a personal level, that fact alone makes me more comfortable with them and I root even harder for them. It gives me a greater attachment to them than just their performance on the field.

Bronson seems to have formed an attachment with the City of Boston. I don't have a problem with that. I'm in SoCal, which I love. But, though I'm not a native, I also fell in love with Cincinnati (although I hate the weather). (famous shrug) I'll always be a Reds fan and I'll always have fond memories of my time there. I would never rule out returning to The Queen City.

OTOH, Bronson has always been a bit 'different'. Maybe it's that left brain, right brain thing.

Anyway, my question is, what does Boston have that the Reds want or need and would the Sox be interested in taking Bronson now instead of waiting until 2013? That might be fun.

Rem

redsmetz
01-12-2011, 01:36 PM
I don't think Arroyo's comments about Boston and his being "cemented" in Cincinnati are mutually exclusive. I see no reason to move him simply because he likes the other town and wants to return there someday. He'll be 36 when his current contract expires, 37 when the 2014 season starts. If he stays durable and still has something, he'll have the opportunity to go back to Boston.

Caveman Techie
01-12-2011, 01:44 PM
FTA

“I still have that in the back of my mind,’’ said Arroyo. “I’m not going to say that I would definitely go there because in my mind right now there would be three places to keep pitching. One would be Cincinnati, another Tampa, so I could play nearer to my family and friends, and then the third would be Boston.


I think he is just playing to the home crowd. If he really just pinned away for Boston he would not of signed the extension.

Chip R
01-12-2011, 01:47 PM
Actions speak louder than words.

RedsManRick
01-12-2011, 02:14 PM
Yeah, it's definitely a little weird. I can't blame him for his opinions, but it doesn't seem very tactful for him to express them imho. Regardless, he's being honest, and I still like him for at least that much.

I lived in State College, PA from 3rd through 8th grade. It will always feel like "home" to me and I could see myself moving back there to raise a family. That said, my employer does not need to worry that I'm going to quit tomorrow and move back.

Kudos to Arroyo for being willing to be honest.

westofyou
01-12-2011, 02:22 PM
It's possible to love more than one place in world, and it's possible to love some place like it's your home even if you don't live there..

I manage through it every day of my life.

medford
01-12-2011, 02:22 PM
Arroyo had the option to reject any offers, fair or unfair and become a free agent next year. Assuming repeart performance this year, of what he did last year, I'm sure Boston could have found a spot for him in some capacity. He choose to sign a deal with the Reds. He may be found of his time in Boston, and openly talk about it, but he obviously enjoys his time in Cincy as well and for the next 3 years, that's all that matters.

camisadelgolf
01-12-2011, 02:28 PM
I lived in State College, PA from 3rd through 8th grade. It will always feel like "home" to me and I could see myself moving back there to raise a family. That said, my employer does not need to worry that I'm going to quit tomorrow and move back.

Kudos to Arroyo for being willing to be honest.
You and I know that, but the public and media have a strong tendency to misconstrue things that are said in interviews. For the most part, I think Arroyo did a good job of not saying anything too controversial, but I bet there will be people out there who come across this article and make it into something it isn't.

edabbs44
01-12-2011, 02:32 PM
It's possible to love more than one place in world, and it's possible to love some place like it's your home even if you don't live there..

I manage through it every day of my life.

Sure it is possible. But is there a need to profess it in the public like that when, in this case, the place you are in love with equates to the team you play for and the fans that root for you?

Again, not that I am losing sleep over this (and I do admire his honesty), but sometimes it's best to keep things to yourself.

RedsManRick
01-12-2011, 02:42 PM
You and I know that, but the public and media have a strong tendency to misconstrue things that are said in interviews. For the most part, I think Arroyo did a good job of not saying anything too controversial, but I bet there will be people out there who come across this article and make it into something it isn't.

Probably; but who cares? If fewer people were uptight about it, there weren't be such a tendency to foam at the mouth anytime something is said that varies from the script.

It's happening in the rest of the business world too. Companies are realizing they can be human and people will understand. The only risk involved is not that what you say will be misconstrued, but that you actually have to be honest and decent. It's those who have something to hide that truly need to worry about it.

westofyou
01-12-2011, 02:44 PM
Sure it is possible. But is there a need to profess it in the public like that when, in this case, the place you are in love with equates to the team you play for and the fans that root for you?

Again, not that I am losing sleep over this (and I do admire his honesty), but sometimes it's best to keep things to yourself.

He's a grown man, a professional athlete, a mercenary, he's not Frank Merriwell at All-American High.

If the "fans" can't deal with statements as innocuous as that I'd suggest they get a life beyond their fandom.

Sea Ray
01-12-2011, 02:59 PM
Actually this is not the first time he's decided to sign with the Reds. He's always been very open about his love for Boston. Knowing that, he must really love it here to have re-signed here twice.

redsmetz
01-12-2011, 03:12 PM
Actually this is not the first time he's decided to sign with the Reds. He's always been very open about his love for Boston. Knowing that, he must really love it here to have re-signed here twice.

"Small sample size," as we say around here, but when my wife & I visited Boston in the spring, every Red Sox fan we met who heard we were from Cincy exclaimed, "Youklis!". He must talk about the town all of the time because everybody knew he was from here.

Yachtzee
01-12-2011, 04:46 PM
It's possible to love more than one place in world, and it's possible to love some place like it's your home even if you don't live there..

I manage through it every day of my life.

Me too. Never lived in Cincinnati, but I have family down there and have been visiting all my life. I would love to live there some day but I don't think it's going to be. I lived in Austria for two years and there isn't a day that goes by where I don't miss it. And if I could stay between the ages of 25-30 and have a well-paying job, I wouldn't mind moving back to Chicago. Yet when my wife and I were looking to move somewhere to raise a family, we chose Northeast Ohio because we wanted to live in a place where our kids would be able to grow up seeing their grandparents on a regular basis and we could afford a decent size home without having to take out a sub-prime mortgage.

I don't see the big deal with Arroyo. You can enjoy working and living where you are, but that doesn't mean you can't dream of someday moving back to the city you love.

Caveat Emperor
01-12-2011, 04:47 PM
It's not like he bought TV time to announce he was "taking his talents to Beantown" or anything.

PuffyPig
01-12-2011, 04:48 PM
FTA

I still have that in the back of my mind, said Arroyo. Im not going to say that I would definitely go there because in my mind right now there would be three places to keep pitching. One would be Cincinnati, another Tampa, so I could play nearer to my family and friends, and then the third would be Boston.


I think he is just playing to the home crowd. If he really just pinned away for Boston he would not of signed the extension.

(this)

1990REDS
01-12-2011, 05:44 PM
No problem with the comments. Its a team in a completely diffrent league. Its not like he exclaimed his love for St. Louis or Houston.

blumj
01-12-2011, 08:39 PM
You know what's really great about Bronson? That he still shows up in Boston every year, in the middle of winter, to perform at a benefit that raises money for the foundation of the guy who traded him.

WebScorpion
01-14-2011, 03:48 AM
My only problem with this statement is that I've been to Boston, and of the 20 or so cities that I've spent several months in, it's not even in my top 10. I guess he fell in love with 'The Big Dig'... ;) I love Bronson's honesty, just not his taste in cities. :D

OnBaseMachine
07-27-2011, 09:53 PM
How awful is that contract extension looking? Good grief. I remember how some blasted Wayne Krivsky for his extension of Arroyo a few years ago, and even when Arroyo pitched well during his extension Krivsky still caught crap for it. Now here we are, in year one of a three year extension and Arroyo has been arguably the worst starting pitcher in baseball and I don't see the same criticism directed at Jocketty that Krivsky received. Bronson's not getting any younger so I don't have much hope of him turning things around.

signalhome
07-27-2011, 10:00 PM
How awful is that contract extension looking? Good grief. I remember how some blasted Wayne Krivsky for his extension of Arroyo a few years ago, and even when Arroyo pitched well during his extension Krivsky still caught crap for it. Now here we are, in year one of a three year extension and Arroyo has been arguably the worst starting pitcher in baseball and I don't see the same criticism directed at Jocketty that Krivsky received. Bronson's not getting any younger so I don't have much hope of him turning things around.

Arroyo's WAR is -0.7. That is, indeed, worse than any other pitcher in baseball.

Tom Servo
07-27-2011, 10:02 PM
How awful is that contract extension looking? Good grief. I remember how some blasted Wayne Krivsky for his extension of Arroyo a few years ago, and even when Arroyo pitched well during his extension Krivsky still caught crap for it. Now here we are, in year one of a three year extension and Arroyo has been arguably the worst starting pitcher in baseball and I don't see the same criticism directed at Jocketty that Krivsky received. Bronson's not getting any younger so I don't have much hope of him turning things around.
I'm beginning to think you don't like Walt Jocketty.

edabbs44
07-27-2011, 10:05 PM
How awful is that contract extension looking? Good grief. I remember how some blasted Wayne Krivsky for his extension of Arroyo a few years ago, and even when Arroyo pitched well during his extension Krivsky still caught crap for it. Now here we are, in year one of a three year extension and Arroyo has been arguably the worst starting pitcher in baseball and I don't see the same criticism directed at Jocketty that Krivsky received. Bronson's not getting any younger so I don't have much hope of him turning things around.

It isn't looking good, that's for sure. However, keep in mind that this isn't uncharted territory.

High water mark ERAs in July for BA (final ERA):

2007: 4.89 (4.23)
2008: 6.19 (4.77)
2009: 5.85 (3.84)
2010: 4.49 (3.88)

OnBaseMachine
07-27-2011, 10:06 PM
I'm beginning to think you don't like Walt Jocketty.

I do, I'm just fed up with his awful decision making in the last 12 months.

edabbs44
07-27-2011, 10:07 PM
I do, I'm just fed up with his awful decision making in the last 12 months.

Which decisions were awful?

Kc61
07-27-2011, 10:17 PM
Arroyo may get it going again next season. He needs some DL time IMO. It's just silly to trot him out there every five days to get beaten up.

Let him rest and work on any physical problems.

I see nothing being gained by letting him pitch right now.

Bring Bronson back in September and see how he does.

kaldaniels
07-27-2011, 10:37 PM
It isn't looking good, that's for sure. However, keep in mind that this isn't uncharted territory.

High water mark ERAs in July for BA (final ERA):

2007: 4.89 (4.23)
2008: 6.19 (4.77)
2009: 5.85 (3.84)
2010: 4.49 (3.88)

Agreed. However that is the glass half-full view.

My question is when will 2-4 miles of velocity come back. That loss of speed is uncharted.

edabbs44
07-27-2011, 10:38 PM
Agreed. However that is the glass half-full view.

My question is when will 2-4 miles of velocity come back. That loss of speed is uncharted.

Absolutely. I wouldn't say that he is cooked just yet, however it isn't promising for the future.

RANDY IN INDY
07-27-2011, 10:40 PM
Arroyo may get it going again next season. He needs some DL time IMO. It's just silly to trot him out there every five days to get beaten up.

Let him rest and work on any physical problems.

I see nothing being gained by letting him pitch right now.

Bring Bronson back in September and see how he does.

Agree :beerme:

Redhook
07-27-2011, 10:53 PM
Which decisions were awful?

I thought for a second that this was a joke, but I know it's not. Let's see: Renteria, Gomes, Lewis, Arroyo, and almost Volquez to name a few. Sleeping through May, June, and July by not making necessary and obvious changes. Not doing squat in the off-season to improve the team. I could go on and on. Walt has been a major disappointment for the Reds and is the #1 reason why this team isn't excelling this year. I really don't see how anyone can view his inactivity, reluctance to make a trade, or delayed calling up of minor leaguers as a positive. A turtle could've done what he has done over the past few years.

Benihana
07-27-2011, 11:04 PM
I thought for a second that this was a joke, but I know it's not. Let's see: Renteria, Gomes, Lewis, Arroyo, and almost Volquez to name a few. Sleeping through May, June, and July by not making necessary and obvious changes. Not doing squat in the off-season to improve the team. I could go on and on. Walt has been a major disappointment for the Reds and is the #1 reason why this team isn't excelling this year. I really don't see how anyone can view his inactivity, reluctance to make a trade, or delayed calling up of minor leaguers as a positive. A turtle could've done what he has done over the past few years.

:clap:

OnBaseMachine
07-27-2011, 11:04 PM
I thought for a second that this was a joke, but I know it's not. Let's see: Renteria, Gomes, Lewis, Arroyo, and almost Volquez to name a few. Sleeping through May, June, and July by not making necessary and obvious changes. Not doing squat in the off-season to improve the team. I could go on and on. Walt has been a major disappointment for the Reds and is the #1 reason why this team isn't excelling this year. I really don't see how anyone can view his inactivity, reluctance to make a trade, or delayed calling up of minor leaguers as a positive. A turtle could've done what he has done over the past few years.

Don't forget about the decision to leave Chapman in the bullpen.

camisadelgolf
07-27-2011, 11:05 PM
If you name for me a GM that you consider to be better, I can probably come up with worse decisions that he has made. No one is perfect.

edabbs44
07-27-2011, 11:11 PM
I thought for a second that this was a joke, but I know it's not. Let's see: Renteria, Gomes, Lewis, Arroyo, and almost Volquez to name a few. Sleeping through May, June, and July by not making necessary and obvious changes. Not doing squat in the off-season to improve the team. I could go on and on. Walt has been a major disappointment for the Reds and is the #1 reason why this team isn't excelling this year. I really don't see how anyone can view his inactivity, reluctance to make a trade, or delayed calling up of minor leaguers as a positive. A turtle could've done what he has done over the past few years.

Of those "awful" decisions, Arroyo is the only one having a material negative impact on the major league product and I'm fairly certain that most people would have exercised his option for this season anyway.

The problem with this team has been disappointing seasons from key players, not the Lewises and Gomeses of the world. Bruce, Rolen, Stubbs, Arroyo, Wood, Volquez, Bailey's injuries, etc. Players who everyone would have went to battle with.

edabbs44
07-27-2011, 11:14 PM
If you name for me a GM that you consider to be better, I can probably come up with worse decisions that he has made. No one is perfect.

Look at the praise Beane got this offseason and look at what he has produced. Willingham, Matsui, Crisp, Dejesus. Over 100 runs less than Cincy, with the DH.

edabbs44
07-27-2011, 11:14 PM
Don't forget about the decision to leave Chapman in the bullpen.

I'm not sure that anyone can say that this was a bad move, at this juncture.

Reds Freak
07-27-2011, 11:19 PM
I still think Arroyo is affected by the mono. If not directly still, by not allowing him to do his usual workout and supplement routine during the off-season and throughout the season...

cincrazy
07-27-2011, 11:40 PM
Of those "awful" decisions, Arroyo is the only one having a material negative impact on the major league product and I'm fairly certain that most people would have exercised his option for this season anyway.

The problem with this team has been disappointing seasons from key players, not the Lewises and Gomeses of the world. Bruce, Rolen, Stubbs, Arroyo, Wood, Volquez, Bailey's injuries, etc. Players who everyone would have went to battle with.

It wasn't hard to see disappointing seasons coming from any of the players you just mentioned. Some are young and inconsistent, others are old and on the decline. I knew coming into the season that not all of them would work out, and maybe none of them would. And Walt should've (and maybe did) know the same. The team stood pat and decided what we had last year was good enough going forward. And anyone could've seen otherwise after watching how September played out.

dougdirt
07-27-2011, 11:41 PM
Of those "awful" decisions, Arroyo is the only one having a material negative impact on the major league product and I'm fairly certain that most people would have exercised his option for this season anyway.

The problem with this team has been disappointing seasons from key players, not the Lewises and Gomeses of the world. Bruce, Rolen, Stubbs, Arroyo, Wood, Volquez, Bailey's injuries, etc. Players who everyone would have went to battle with.

Problem is, giving Arroyo the contract he did means that you MUST keep him through it rather than just this year for those of us who would have used his option (which I wouldn't have, but I get why the ones who would could choose to).

And I would argue that Dave Sappelt not being in left field all year instead of Gomes, Lewis and Heisey could be one of the problems with this team. I feel pretty comfortable saying Dave Sappelt's bat and his defense is better than that trio is. At this venture of the season, Jay Bruce actually is BETTER offensively than he was last year (125 OPS coming into the night compared to 123 last year).

His inactiveness at shortstop certainly cost the team as well from about June on.

Griffey012
07-27-2011, 11:53 PM
A lot of Walt's best moves have been the one's he did not make. Would you be happy with a Rasmus type move in the off-season if it meant improving the club for the upcoming season, and only that season?

As Doug pointed out, the only poor move he has made was Arroyo. Renteria has been a bust but cost little money for 1 season. Lewis makes 900k and has a .718 OPS with a .350 OBP in a reserve role, that is hardly awful.

You cannot blame a GM for nearly an entire lineup that is under performing, a group of starting pitchers that have under performed, and an up and down bullpen. But you can blame a GM for signing a guy to a contract at his max market value before he has too...it is still just dumb.

mth123
07-28-2011, 12:44 AM
A lot of Walt's best moves have been the one's he did not make. Would you be happy with a Rasmus type move in the off-season if it meant improving the club for the upcoming season, and only that season?

As Doug pointed out, the only poor move he has made was Arroyo. Renteria has been a bust but cost little money for 1 season. Lewis makes 900k and has a .718 OPS with a .350 OBP in a reserve role, that is hardly awful.

You cannot blame a GM for nearly an entire lineup that is under performing, a group of starting pitchers that have under performed, and an up and down bullpen. But you can blame a GM for signing a guy to a contract at his max market value before he has too...it is still just dumb.

I balme him. You could see a drop in the offense coming from a mile away. The lack of guys who hit well against RHP has been a problem since Dunn and Griffey left town. A rotation filled with question marks was a bad plan. He needed to address the middle of the order and the imbalance in the line-up and he needed to add some stability to the rotation in exchange for a question mark. His big offseason move was adding Edgar Renteria.

Here is what it boils down to for me. Coming into 2011 the Reds had three years left with Votto to win it all. They wasted one of those years with the front office approaching the season like it was a rebuildng year instead of a contending year and moving some of its blocked and excess youth to address the areas that are lacking. Now its looking like there are only 2 years left before this team loses its centerpiece and falls back to longshot status.

Reds/Flyers Fan
07-28-2011, 12:46 AM
I thought for a second that this was a joke, but I know it's not. Let's see: Renteria, Gomes, Lewis, Arroyo, and almost Volquez to name a few. Sleeping through May, June, and July by not making necessary and obvious changes. Not doing squat in the off-season to improve the team. I could go on and on. Walt has been a major disappointment for the Reds and is the #1 reason why this team isn't excelling this year. I really don't see how anyone can view his inactivity, reluctance to make a trade, or delayed calling up of minor leaguers as a positive. A turtle could've done what he has done over the past few years.

:beerme:

reds44
07-28-2011, 03:07 AM
This hasn't been Jocketty's finest campaign, but I still like him as our GM.

The Arroyo contract is awful though. It was awful when he gave it to him too.

Ron Madden
07-28-2011, 04:27 AM
I wanted the Reds to pick up the option on Arroyo but to give him that extension was a mistake in my opinion.

edabbs44
07-28-2011, 08:47 AM
Problem is, giving Arroyo the contract he did means that you MUST keep him through it rather than just this year for those of us who would have used his option (which I wouldn't have, but I get why the ones who would could choose to).

And I would argue that Dave Sappelt not being in left field all year instead of Gomes, Lewis and Heisey could be one of the problems with this team. I feel pretty comfortable saying Dave Sappelt's bat and his defense is better than that trio is. At this venture of the season, Jay Bruce actually is BETTER offensively than he was last year (125 OPS coming into the night compared to 123 last year).

His inactiveness at shortstop certainly cost the team as well from about June on.

Sappelt? Did he honestly deserve the LF job out of ST? He has also crashed to Earth, what would his production be on the major league level?

Was there a legit candidate to come up in June? Is 2 months too soon to pull the plug on a starter? I am not a Janish fan by any stretch but if Walt is supposed to be that reactionary in all situations we would have likely missed out on some other things we have seen.

And Bruce...he has been less than necessary and anticipated so far this year. His is a bat that this team desperately needs and what he is providing so far is not enough.

Caveat Emperor
07-28-2011, 09:40 AM
Dave Sappelt needed to prove he wasn't a one-year wonder. Still hasn't done that, IMO. I wouldn't have handed him anything this offseason.

As for Arroyo -- to this point, he'd been one of the more consistent starters in all of baseball. I'd hazard a guess, as someone who had mono at one point in his life, that he never was able to condition properly in spring training and the first of half of the year and never really got his strength and stamina to a good place this season. Even if you consider 2011 a wash now, I think you have to consider him a good bet to have the ship righted in 2012.

dougdirt
07-28-2011, 11:20 AM
Sappelt? Did he honestly deserve the LF job out of ST? He has also crashed to Earth, what would his production be on the major league level?

Was there a legit candidate to come up in June? Is 2 months too soon to pull the plug on a starter? I am not a Janish fan by any stretch but if Walt is supposed to be that reactionary in all situations we would have likely missed out on some other things we have seen.

And Bruce...he has been less than necessary and anticipated so far this year. His is a bat that this team desperately needs and what he is providing so far is not enough.

Sappelt is hitting over .300 in Louisville with nearly as many walks as strikeouts after ripping through AA last year. Oh, and he is a plus defender. If that is "crashing to earth" can we get more of that? And while we are at it.... out current LF's this season have hit .218/.317/.368. But yeah, Dave Sappelt is probably a step down from that.

There is a difference between being reactionary on a starter and being reactionary on Paul Janish. You don't pull guys after two months who have the potential or have been above average players. You do pull guys who are average on their best day and are absolutely terrible for 2 months straight.

Jay Bruce's bat isn't the teams problem. Not even close to it. I bet you are going to blame Votto next because he isn't as good as he was last year, right? Yeah, who cares about the 5.54 ERA in 305.2 innings from Volquez, Arroyo and Wood. It is Jay Bruce's fault we aren't winning.

_Sir_Charles_
07-28-2011, 12:09 PM
I wonder, is Sappelt better suited for centerfield or leftfield? He does fit the mold for the lead off hitter for sure. And as I recall, he mostly plays center. Is he a better defender than Drew, fairly equal, marginally worse? I'm starting to wonder if we might be better off with Stubbs in left, Sappelt in center and Bruce in right with Dave leading off and Stubbs hitting lower in the order (around 6 or so).

Caveat Emperor
07-28-2011, 12:20 PM
It is Jay Bruce's fault we aren't winning.

When you go through multiple months being Yuniesky Betancourt at the dish, you're part of the problem.

You can look at Jay Bruce's overall numbers and say "He's been a productive player" and you'd be absolutely correct, but you can also look at his numbers and say "He's been next to worthless in almost half the team's games" and be just as correct.

Chip R
07-28-2011, 12:39 PM
When you go through multiple months being Yuniesky Betancourt at the dish, you're part of the problem.

You can look at Jay Bruce's overall numbers and say "He's been a productive player" and you'd be absolutely correct, but you can also look at his numbers and say "He's been next to worthless in almost half the team's games" and be just as correct.

Well put. I like Jay and think he brings a lot to the team defensively. Offensively, he has had about 3 good months in the last 3 years. While it was nice to have another Red represented at the ASG, he deserved to go about as much as I did. If he were getting on base at the rate Dunn did during his heyday here, I wouldn't have so much of a problem with his numbers. We can - and have - blamed a lot of people for his unfulfilled potential but ultimately the blame lies within Jay himself. Maybe he's just not good enough. There's no shame in that but if he isn't, it might not be a bad idea to see what he would fetch on the trade market.

HokieRed
07-28-2011, 01:09 PM
IMHO, Sappelt is your future CF, with a big bat--either Alonso, Votto, or someone to be acquired--in LF. He would work, I think, in the leadoff spot in a way that Stubbs is unlikely ever to do.

Homer Bailey
07-28-2011, 01:21 PM
Jay Bruce is 21st in the NL in OPS, and exactly 2 of the guys that are above him are younger than he is.

He is the first player I've ever encountered that must not only put up good numbers, but he must put them up evenly across the entire season, or else he's just not as good as his numbers say he is. The expectations for this guy are high, no doubt, and everyone expects him to tap into his potential at some point, but the amount of flack he receives after racking up a 7.7 WAR over the last season and 2/3rds is really getting out of hand.

signalhome
07-28-2011, 01:24 PM
Jay Bruce is 21st in the NL in OPS, and exactly 2 of the guys that are above him are younger than he is.

He is the first player I've ever encountered that must not only put up good numbers, but he must put them up evenly across the entire season, or else he's just not as good as his numbers say he is. The expectations for this guy are high, no doubt, and everyone expects him to tap into his potential at some point, but the amount of flack he receives after racking up a 7.7 WAR over the last season and 2/3rds is really getting out of hand.

Thank you. Bruce isn't the problem.

IslandRed
07-28-2011, 01:28 PM
Sappelt is hitting over .300 in Louisville with nearly as many walks as strikeouts after ripping through AA last year. Oh, and he is a plus defender. If that is "crashing to earth" can we get more of that?

Sappelt's been pretty ordinary since he returned from the oblique injury in mid-June. That's no crime, he was out several weeks so it was pretty serious, and it's likely having a lingering impact on his game. Point being, there's little reason to believe he'd do much if called up today. Later is a different matter, I still think he'll get it going again at some point -- but I'd like to see it before I clear out other people to make room for him.

IslandRed
07-28-2011, 01:31 PM
I wonder, is Sappelt better suited for centerfield or leftfield? He does fit the mold for the lead off hitter for sure. And as I recall, he mostly plays center. Is he a better defender than Drew, fairly equal, marginally worse? I'm starting to wonder if we might be better off with Stubbs in left, Sappelt in center and Bruce in right with Dave leading off and Stubbs hitting lower in the order (around 6 or so).

From what I've heard about Sappelt, his range is fine for CF but the arm is questionable. That's just minor-league board third-hand, though. Others may have a better idea. But I'm pretty comfortable saying there's no one in this organization whose defense is going to push Stubbs to a corner, or even make it a serious consideration. If he's starting, he's in center. Push him out of the starting lineup? Different question.

signalhome
07-28-2011, 01:33 PM
Sappelt's been pretty ordinary since he returned from the oblique injury in mid-June. That's no crime, he was out several weeks so it was pretty serious, and it's likely having a lingering impact on his game. Point being, there's little reason to believe he'd do much if called up today. Later is a different matter, I still think he'll get it going again at some point -- but I'd like to see it before I clear out other people to make room for him.

That's only a month of games -- pretty small sample size. What we do know, however, is that over his last 781 PAs, he has posted a wOBA in the upper .300's. That's good.

IslandRed
07-28-2011, 01:38 PM
That's only a month of games -- pretty small sample size. What we do know, however, is that over his last 781 PAs, he has posted a wOBA in the upper .300's. That's good.

Twice as big a sample size as the April 1.005 OPS that got everyone so fired up. :p

But again, it's hardly unexpected that a guy returning from a serious oblique injury would see his performance suffer for awhile.

Caveat Emperor
07-28-2011, 02:11 PM
Jay Bruce is 21st in the NL in OPS, and exactly 2 of the guys that are above him are younger than he is.

He is the first player I've ever encountered that must not only put up good numbers, but he must put them up evenly across the entire season, or else he's just not as good as his numbers say he is. The expectations for this guy are high, no doubt, and everyone expects him to tap into his potential at some point, but the amount of flack he receives after racking up a 7.7 WAR over the last season and 2/3rds is really getting out of hand.

He doesn't need to be amazing 24/7, he just needs to not be atrocious for 25-30 game stretches.



Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
April/March 25 25 109 97 15 23 2 0 4 11 4 1 10 27 .237 .306 .381 .687
May 28 27 122 111 23 38 6 1 12 33 0 0 11 21 .342 .402 .739 1.140
June 25 24 103 92 9 20 6 0 2 7 2 3 10 31 .217 .301 .348 .649
July 21 19 83 71 7 17 4 1 3 6 1 0 12 16 .239 .349 .451 .800


For the 50 games in March, April and June, Jay Bruce had an OPS of roughly .670 -- that's below Fred Lewis (.715) territory for just under 50% of the season thus far.

Jonny Gomes was crucified on this board last year, and here are his month/month splits thru July of 2010:



Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
April/March 20 16 67 60 9 13 1 1 2 12 0 1 3 16 .217 .254 .367 .620
May 25 23 100 88 16 32 7 1 5 22 1 0 10 24 .364 .420 .636 1.056
June 27 24 102 90 6 22 8 0 2 17 0 1 3 23 .244 .304 .400 .704
July 25 23 104 96 15 23 2 0 4 14 2 1 5 18 .240 .288 .385 .674


If anything, Jay Bruce is getting a free pass around here.

Mario-Rijo
07-28-2011, 02:28 PM
From what I've heard about Sappelt, his range is fine for CF but the arm is questionable. That's just minor-league board third-hand, though. Others may have a better idea. But I'm pretty comfortable saying there's no one in this organization whose defense is going to push Stubbs to a corner, or even make it a serious consideration. If he's starting, he's in center. Push him out of the starting lineup? Different question.

There's no good reason Sappelt couldn't leadoff and play LF, except perhaps Dusty.

I don't care what anyone thinks I would have given Sappelt a shot at LF from the get go, he would provided a big spark early on and been a solid positive addition. And he still will when he gets here.

Mario-Rijo
07-28-2011, 02:31 PM
If anything, Jay Bruce is getting a free pass around here.

As well he should. Once the pitchforks are out they don't get put away again until the job is done.

Homer Bailey
07-28-2011, 02:48 PM
He doesn't need to be amazing 24/7, he just needs to not be atrocious for 25-30 game stretches.



Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
April/March 25 25 109 97 15 23 2 0 4 11 4 1 10 27 .237 .306 .381 .687
May 28 27 122 111 23 38 6 1 12 33 0 0 11 21 .342 .402 .739 1.140
June 25 24 103 92 9 20 6 0 2 7 2 3 10 31 .217 .301 .348 .649
July 21 19 83 71 7 17 4 1 3 6 1 0 12 16 .239 .349 .451 .800


For the 50 games in March, April and June, Jay Bruce had an OPS of roughly .670 -- that's below Fred Lewis (.715) territory for just under 50% of the season thus far.

Jonny Gomes was crucified on this board last year, and here are his month/month splits thru July of 2010:



Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
April/March 20 16 67 60 9 13 1 1 2 12 0 1 3 16 .217 .254 .367 .620
May 25 23 100 88 16 32 7 1 5 22 1 0 10 24 .364 .420 .636 1.056
June 27 24 102 90 6 22 8 0 2 17 0 1 3 23 .244 .304 .400 .704
July 25 23 104 96 15 23 2 0 4 14 2 1 5 18 .240 .288 .385 .674


If anything, Jay Bruce is getting a free pass around here.

My point stands. Not only does Bruce have to put up great numbers (right now, I'd say he has "good" numbers), he has to do it evenly, or he's chastised (sp?). Just because random 30 day stretches than happen to be month ends say he's really inconsistent, we can't conclude anything from that. I bet if we separated his season into two halves, the numbers would look pretty similiar. And why did no one say Bruce was inconsistent last year, when 5 of the 6 months out of the year, he put up OPS's over .800?

And there is a reason that Gomes gets crucified here. He posted a 1.1 WAR over the last season and 2/3rds, compared to Bruce's 7.7. Gomes was a below average player, while Bruce is a well above average player.

So you can split up the numbers into smaller little samples to compare Jay Bruce to Fred Lewis, or you can take it at face value which says that Bruce is a well above average bat, and clearly the second best offensive player on this team.

dougdirt
07-28-2011, 05:04 PM
Sappelt's been pretty ordinary since he returned from the oblique injury in mid-June. That's no crime, he was out several weeks so it was pretty serious, and it's likely having a lingering impact on his game. Point being, there's little reason to believe he'd do much if called up today. Later is a different matter, I still think he'll get it going again at some point -- but I'd like to see it before I clear out other people to make room for him.

Since coming off the DL Sappelt's power hasn't been there like it was (though since I said I would have brought him up from Day 1, that injury probably doesn't happen since he wouldn't have been in Louisville). He doesn't have a weakness at the plate in terms of approach or ability to hit certain pitches. He has a short and compact swing, with pop.

You might need to see more. I don't. The guy is a pure hitter with a good approach at the plate. I contend if he were drafted in 2007 rather than 2008 and had to be on the 40 man roster, he would have been your opening day left fielder this year.

Griffey012
07-28-2011, 06:49 PM
It is pretty funny the difference in how Bruce's season this year is looked at because it is Bruce, and how Gomes season last year was looked at because it was Gomes.

With Gomes 2010 May it was looked at as a completely outlier and as if it should be completely ignored. The argument was always "well he has an .800 OPS on the season but if you take out May it's .700. This guy is terrible, get him on the bench, etc, etc."

But with Bruce who is having a near identical path to his season the argument is the opposite. It is well over the season he is OPS'ing .835, and the fact that in 28 games in May he did the following % of his season amounts:

R 42.59%
H 38.78%
2B 33.33%
HR 57.14%
RBI 57.14%
BB 25.58%
K 22.11%

Consistency isn't everything in baseball, but when you spend 1/4 of your season as a megastar, 1/2 as a AAA player, and 1/4 a little above average, the lack of consistency cannot be ignored.

Bruce has spent 2 months, not 2 stints of a 2 week slump, but 2 entire months putting up subpar production. He should definitely be looked at as part of the problem for this team this season. Not fully to blame but he definitely gets no free pass.

Gomes 2010 and Bruce's 2011 are strikingly similar from an offensive standpoint, just think about that, and think about how much flak Gomes got last year for that.

RedsManRick
07-28-2011, 07:05 PM
It is pretty funny the difference in how Bruce's season this year is looked at because it is Bruce, and how Gomes season last year was looked at because it was Gomes.

With Gomes 2010 May it was looked at as a completely outlier and as if it should be completely ignored. The argument was always "well he has an .800 OPS on the season but if you take out May it's .700. This guy is terrible, get him on the bench, etc, etc."

But with Bruce who is having a near identical path to his season the argument is the opposite. It is well over the season he is OPS'ing .835, and the fact that in 28 games in May he did the following % of his season amounts:

R 42.59%
H 38.78%
2B 33.33%
HR 57.14%
RBI 57.14%
BB 25.58%
K 22.11%

Consistency isn't everything in baseball, but when you spend 1/4 of your season as a megastar, 1/2 as a AAA player, and 1/4 a little above average, the lack of consistency cannot be ignored.

Bruce has spent 2 months, not 2 stints of a 2 week slump, but 2 entire months putting up subpar production. He should definitely be looked at as part of the problem for this team this season. Not fully to blame but he definitely gets no free pass.

Gomes 2010 and Bruce's 2011 are strikingly similar from an offensive standpoint, just think about that, and think about how much flak Gomes got last year for that.

Jonny Gomes had a .758 OPS last year. .758 and .835 are not strikingly similar in my book. Did they both experience concentrations of performance. Yes. And an apple and an orange are both round fruits.

The argument with Gomes, from most people, was not his monthly splits. It was that he crushes lefties, stinks against righties and can't play defense. We knew exactly how to maximize his value and he wasn't be used that way. With a guy experiencing month-to-month streakiness, I'm not aware of an obvious solution.

Every player's performance always matters in proportion to how much he played and how well. Aggregate data balances all of this out for us. If a guy stinks for 3 months out of 4 and still comes out as a pretty solid player, that 1 month much have been off-the-charts amazing and extremely valuable. And it was. I don't understand why this concept is so hard. As much as Bruce's weak months have hurt us, they have been substantially offset by just how amazing his May was. Looking at just the bad times while giving lip service to the good ones is just bad analysis. On balance, he's been a slight disappointment and, to the extent that he hasn't performed as well overall as people expected, he's contributed to the overall disappointment. But it's not like things would be noticeably different if he just managed to put up an .835 OPS each month.

What people are really upset about with Bruce is that if he put up better numbers in those down months, he would be an overall more productive player. It's true. And it would show up in his aggregate numbers. Looking at the monthly splits doesn't tell us anything about his value to the team thus far nor his likely value moving forward. It's just a distraction which helps us tell a story about how things happened.

Distribution matters a little bit, but you generally can't control it unless it's usage based and, in the end, it basically comes out in the wash. Nobody is being given a free pass. It's just called looking at everything in proportion. Everybody is streaky. Put up the numbers over the long haul and you come out ahead in the end. Focusing on the distribution of a single player's performance isn't missing the forest for the trees. It's missing the trees the leaves.

I'm surprised people around here don't get upset when a guy hits a homer instead of a few singles. I mean, singles are much more consistent.

edabbs44
07-28-2011, 07:32 PM
Sorry Rick, but baseball is played in small sample sizes called games. Disappearing for months on end doesn't help the bottom line.

Griffey012
07-28-2011, 08:11 PM
Jonny Gomes had a .758 OPS last year. .758 and .835 are not strikingly similar in my book. Did they both experience concentrations of performance. Yes. And an apple and an orange are both round fruits.

The argument with Gomes, from most people, was not his monthly splits. It was that he crushes lefties, stinks against righties and can't play defense. We knew exactly how to maximize his value and he wasn't be used that way. With a guy experiencing month-to-month streakiness, I'm not aware of an obvious solution.

Every player's performance always matters in proportion to how much he played and how well. Aggregate data balances all of this out for us. If a guy stinks for 3 months out of 4 and still comes out as a pretty solid player, that 1 month much have been off-the-charts amazing and extremely valuable. And it was. I don't understand why this concept is so hard. As much as Bruce's weak months have hurt us, they have been substantially offset by just how amazing his May was. Looking at just the bad times while giving lip service to the good ones is just bad analysis. On balance, he's been a slight disappointment and, to the extent that he hasn't performed as well overall as people expected, he's contributed to the overall disappointment. But it's not like things would be noticeably different if he just managed to put up an .835 OPS each month.

What people are really upset about with Bruce is that if he put up better numbers in those down months, he would be an overall more productive player. It's true. And it would show up in his aggregate numbers. Looking at the monthly splits doesn't tell us anything about his value to the team thus far nor his likely value moving forward. It's just a distraction which helps us tell a story about how things happened.

Distribution matters a little bit, but you generally can't control it unless it's usage based and, in the end, it basically comes out in the wash. Nobody is being given a free pass. It's just called looking at everything in proportion. Everybody is streaky. Put up the numbers over the long haul and you come out ahead in the end. Focusing on the distribution of a single player's performance isn't missing the forest for the trees. It's missing the trees the leaves.

I'm surprised people around here don't get upset when a guy hits a homer instead of a few singles. I mean, singles are much more consistent.

I was not trying to support Gomes or bash Bruce, we all know Gomes and what he is. My whole point is why was Gomes May always removed/ignored when looking at his numbers, while Bruce's is included/praised? Bruce's June was actually further off his career average OPS than was Gomes May.

In the end when it's all said and done numerically Bruce is going to have a solid season, nothing great, but nothing to hang your hat on too much. What we are discussing here is not this 1 players season and how good it was, but how much he helped the team.

And distribution does matter. Games after we are 10 games out of first don't really matter. So if he puts up another June come September and we are completely out of the race, then its less valuable. Sure it is valuable to Bruce's numbers, but not to the team's playoff chances. Put that new Septmeber in June and we at least have a shot at being in the race still.

And as EDabbs pointed out, winning is on a game by game basis. Helping your team win by 7 runs instead of 4 is less valuable then helping your team turn a 1 run deficit into a 1 run lead. Over the course of time sure it is likely going to all average out, but each individual season will vary quite randomly around the mean.

I am not trying to knock Bruce, I am a huge fan, but to act like he has not been one of the problems this season is ludicrous is you ask me.

dougdirt
07-28-2011, 11:01 PM
I am not trying to knock Bruce, I am a huge fan, but to act like he has not been one of the problems this season is ludicrous is you ask me.

And to act like he has been one of the problems this season is beyond ludicrous if you ask me.

In terms of problems on the Reds this year, Jay Bruce is about 30th on the list.

Griffey012
07-28-2011, 11:23 PM
And to act like he has been one of the problems this season is beyond ludicrous if you ask me.

In terms of problems on the Reds this year, Jay Bruce is about 30th on the list.

Answer me this...is having no production out of the cleanup spot a problem with this team? Is having nobody to hit behind Joey Votto a problem with this team?

If the answer is yes, then Jay Bruce is part of the problem because he failed at hitting behind Votto, and hasn't done anything to force his way back up there for another opportunity to protect Votto and drive in runs.

If the answer is no, then we have far different opinions.

camisadelgolf
07-28-2011, 11:31 PM
Is a 125 OPS+ considered failing? Does it really matter what spot in the order you do that from?

nate
07-28-2011, 11:40 PM
Answer me this...is having no production out of the cleanup spot a problem with this team?

No, it's a problem with the guy who makes out the lineup card.


Is having nobody to hit behind Joey Votto a problem with this team?


They have somebody, he's just not used that way.


If the answer is yes, then Jay Bruce is part of the problem

Bruce has less than a fifth of the cleanup PAs.


because he failed at hitting behind Votto,

I wouldn't use 82 PAs as a measure of success or failure for anything.


and hasn't done anything to force his way back up there for another opportunity to protect Votto and drive in runs.

I think real problem is the manager's aversion to batting two left-handed hitters back to back.


If the answer is no, then we have far different opinions.

That much is certain.

signalhome
07-28-2011, 11:48 PM
Seriously, I can't believe we're laying any fault for 2011 at Bruce's feet. Votto has suffered from more regression than Bruce, so where's the outrage toward him? Bruce's wRC+ is one point higher than last year (123 vs. 122), Votto's is seventeen points lower (156 vs. 173). And no, I'm not saying it's Votto's fault either; he's been great this year. I'm just saying it's no more Bruce's fault than it is Votto's. 2011 Bruce has been nearly identical to 2010 Bruce. We were all expecting him to keep improving his numbers, but just because that didn't happen doesn't mean he has somehow gotten worse. It's a bit disappointing that he's produced at exactly the same level as 2010 instead of kicking those numbers into another gear, sure, but let's not let that disappointment cloud the fact that Bruce is still on pace to be a ~4.0 WAR player.

Redhook
07-29-2011, 08:47 AM
Seriously, I can't believe we're laying any fault for 2011 at Bruce's feet.

Bruce is way down on the list as far as problems go for the Reds; however, he doesn't get a free pass and should take some of the blame. He's having an ok year, similar to last, but he hasn't improved like many thought he would. If you asked him, I'm sure he'd tell you he's not happy with his performance this year. This team needed Bruce to take a step forward this year, similar to Stubbs. It hasn't happened.

camisadelgolf
07-29-2011, 09:21 AM
This is how the 2011 Jay Bruce compares to the 2010 Jay Bruce:
1.) more patient at the plate
2.) more efficient base stealer
3.) more home runs
4.) better in clutch situations
5.) higher OPS+
6.) very close to setting career highs in many stats
7.) triples are down :(

Jay Bruce has improved in almost every way--granted, not by a drastic amount, but the rest of the league has regressed a decent amount while Jay Bruce has slightly improved. How could anyone say Jay Bruce has been a disappointment so far? What would you expect out of a 24-year-old kid?

edabbs44
07-29-2011, 11:54 AM
This is how the 2011 Jay Bruce compares to the 2010 Jay Bruce:
1.) more patient at the plate
2.) more efficient base stealer
3.) more home runs
4.) better in clutch situations
5.) higher OPS+
6.) very close to setting career highs in many stats
7.) triples are down :(

Jay Bruce has improved in almost every way--granted, not by a drastic amount, but the rest of the league has regressed a decent amount while Jay Bruce has slightly improved. How could anyone say Jay Bruce has been a disappointment so far? What would you expect out of a 24-year-old kid?

I expect the former #1 prospect in all of baseball, in his 4th season in the league, to start to show why he had that title. Bragging that he is 40somethingth in OPS in the majors is kind of ridiculous.

signalhome
07-29-2011, 12:09 PM
I expect the former #1 prospect in all of baseball, in his 4th season in the league, to start to show why he had that title. Bragging that he is 40somethingth in OPS in the majors is kind of ridiculous.

Is a 5.3 WAR season at 23 and being on pace for a ~4.0 WAR season at 24 not showing why he had that title as #1 prospect? You may have been expecting him to be the second coming of Frank Robinson, coming into the league and putting up 6.0+ WAR seasons with regularity, but I think that's a little unfair. I don't really see how it's relevant that this is his fourth season in the league, considering he's still only 24; for comparison, Votto's first full season was played at the age of 24. Votto's wOBA at 24 was a mere 14 points higher than Bruce's current wOBA, and Bruce actually sports the higher wRC+. Also, let's not forget the fact that Bruce is the far superior defensive player.

I'm sorry, but being disappointed that Bruce has only been a 7.8 WAR player in his last 248 games, considering he was just turning 23 when that sequence began, is just a bit unreasonable to me.

Homer Bailey
07-29-2011, 12:16 PM
Is a 5.3 WAR season at 23 and being on pace for a ~4.0 WAR season at 24 not showing why he had that title as #1 prospect? You may have been expecting him to be the second coming of Frank Robinson, coming into the league and putting up 6.0+ WAR seasons with regularity, but I think that's a little unfair. I don't really see how it's relevant that this is his fourth season in the league, considering he's still only 24; for comparison, Votto's first full season was played at the age of 24. Votto's wOBA at 24 was a mere 14 points higher than Bruce's current wOBA, and Bruce actually sports the higher wRC+. Also, let's not forget the fact that Bruce is the far superior defensive player.

I'm sorry, but being disappointed that Bruce has only been a 7.8 WAR player in his last 248 games, considering he was just turning 23 when that sequence began, is just a bit unreasonable to me.

:thumbup:

Caveat Emperor
07-29-2011, 12:21 PM
Is a 5.3 WAR season at 23 and being on pace for a ~4.0 WAR season at 24 not showing why he had that title as #1 prospect?

No one is questioning Bruce's defense -- we're talking about his bat.

To that end: I expect the #1 prospect in all of baseball to have some baseline level of performance and not be subject to .400+ point swings in OPS from month-to-month.

There's a certain point where consistency at the plate has to enter this debate. You can't be a good or even great player if you completely disappear on cold streaks for 30 days at a time -- no matter how insanely hot you get for the next 30.

Homer Bailey
07-29-2011, 12:25 PM
No one is questioning Bruce's defense -- we're talking about his bat.

To that end: I expect the #1 prospect in all of baseball to have some baseline level of performance and not be subject to .400+ point swings in OPS from month-to-month.

There's a certain point where consistency at the plate has to enter this debate. You can't be a good or even great player if you completely disappear on cold streaks for 30 days at a time -- no matter how insanely hot you get for the next 30.

Did you make this same argument last year? Or is this something that Bruce is just suffering from this year? Why does it matter when he produces, when numbers say he's producing well overall? Why does it matter if he has a great month and then a poor one? Would it be better if just alternated great day/bad day?

edabbs44
07-29-2011, 12:42 PM
Did you make this same argument last year? Or is this something that Bruce is just suffering from this year? Why does it matter when he produces, when numbers say he's producing well overall? Why does it matter if he has a great month and then a poor one? Would it be better if just alternated great day/bad day?

If you hit 4 HR in one game, you can still only win once based on that production. Same theory applies.

Caveat Emperor
07-29-2011, 12:44 PM
Did you make this same argument last year? Or is this something that Bruce is just suffering from this year? Why does it matter when he produces, when numbers say he's producing well overall? Why does it matter if he has a great month and then a poor one? Would it be better if just alternated great day/bad day?

No, I didn't -- last year Bruce was a bit more consistent, but still had an abysmal month of July (again, where the bottom just fell out of his offensive game to the tune of a .508 OPS).

And it matters when he produces because, at the end of the day, he's plays on a team that is trying to win ballgames and stay in contention. Having a great month early and a great month late might make the stat line look nice at the end of the season, but the dead months in the middle don't help the bottom line goal of the team: winning and staying in contention.

It's hard to stay in contention when cornerstone players have 30 game streaks where they perform at utility-infielder level instead of getting on base and driving in runs. Day-to-day streaks, or even week long streaks, a team can handle -- but 30 consecutive games is an awfully large chunk of the season to disappear (especially as a team tries to determine whether or not it needs to buy and 'go for it' or throttle back and prepare for next year).

Homer Bailey
07-29-2011, 01:06 PM
If you hit 4 HR in one game, you can still only win once based on that production. Same theory applies.


No, I didn't -- last year Bruce was a bit more consistent, but still had an abysmal month of July (again, where the bottom just fell out of his offensive game to the tune of a .508 OPS).

And it matters when he produces because, at the end of the day, he's plays on a team that is trying to win ballgames and stay in contention. Having a great month early and a great month late might make the stat line look nice at the end of the season, but the dead months in the middle don't help the bottom line goal of the team: winning and staying in contention.

It's hard to stay in contention when cornerstone players have 30 game streaks where they perform at utility-infielder level instead of getting on base and driving in runs. Day-to-day streaks, or even week long streaks, a team can handle -- but 30 consecutive games is an awfully large chunk of the season to disappear (especially as a team tries to determine whether or not it needs to buy and 'go for it' or throttle back and prepare for next year).

So is it reflective of his talent level, or a reflection of random variation? Bruce was never considered inconsistent until the last four months. Is he any less talented than a guy that OPS's .840 flat for an entire season? Is his value any less? Why do we only discuss the bad fluctuations, and dismiss the fluctuations where he performs at MVP levels?

Plus Plus
07-29-2011, 01:07 PM
Please keep this thread on the topic of Bronson Arroyo and take the Jay Bruce discussion either to another thread or to a new thread.

Griffey012
07-30-2011, 01:53 AM
Moved to another thread.