PDA

View Full Version : Would you trade Arroyo at the deadline?



Vottomatic
07-11-2010, 01:04 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/07/arroyo-wont-consider-restructuring-contract.html


Bronson Arroyo will not consider redoing his contract even if it means staying with the Reds past this season, according to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Arroyo is in the final year of his two-year deal and has a club option for $11MM next season.

......and this.....


If Arroyo is not in their future plans, the club might consider exploring his trade value before the deadline. The right-hander would be a "hot commodity" on the trade market, and with Edinson Volquez, Aaron Harang, and Homer Bailey on their way back from the disabled list, the Reds could have the pitching depth to make a move worthwhile.

Would you trade him while his value is the highest?

vottofan4life
07-11-2010, 01:11 PM
The only way you trade him is if you bring in Zach Greinke, Roy Oswalt, Dan Haren, or even Matt Garza

Kiss the Baby00
07-11-2010, 01:12 PM
im ok with trading him if we can get a stud SP, closer or SS

Indy_Reds_Fan
07-11-2010, 01:14 PM
In a New York minute. I think Arroyo has been terrific this year, but if you can get something for him then you need to move him. I don't see the Reds bringing him back at $11 million, and if you're not willing to do that you should trade him. I would prefer to move Harang but I don't see him having much value.

The Reds starting pitching is pretty deep for the rest of the year with Cueto, Volquez, Wood, Leake, Bailey, Harang and Maloney. LeCure could even be a spot starter if you need one. Next year you can use some of the money from having Arroyo's and Harang's contract off the books to sign a veteran if necessary.

Griffey012
07-11-2010, 01:16 PM
The only way you trade him is if you bring in Zach Greinke, Roy Oswalt, Dan Haren, or even Matt Garza

Agree, Arroyo is the leader of this staff and the only proven inning eater. We need to replace him with another one if we are going to ship him out. I would hate to see him go though.

Vottomatic
07-11-2010, 01:17 PM
I was going to say no until I re-read that story and Fay's input about Arroyo definitely wanting to test the FA market after next season to get a big paycheck.

BLEEDS always says the obvious, which is true.........trade when their value is at it's highest.

If we're not going to sign him, might be time to trade him. Plus, we have plenty of starting pitchers...........not all great.........but serviceable.

BigPoppa
07-11-2010, 01:19 PM
I'd much rather shed Harang, but the economics of it may make that unlikely.

ILoveWilly
07-11-2010, 01:24 PM
Hell no, no trade. The guy is one of the best pitchers in the majors in the 2nd half. For whatever reason he kicks it up 10 times past what he does in the 1st half.

Krawhitham
07-11-2010, 01:29 PM
Pick up the option and trade him next year if they have trouble getting a new deal worked out

GIDP
07-11-2010, 01:29 PM
If they can get a SS I would do it. It would also depend on if they snag another SP to replace him. I doubt both would happen in the middle of a season, plus there really isnt a ML ready SS prospect on a team that would be looking for a SP.

sabometrics
07-11-2010, 01:34 PM
Arroyo is our #1 guy right now. We'd need a significant return. That's all I'll say. My gut doesn't like the idea, but I don't know what Volquez will look like against MLB pitching. Edinson could make this idea look very viable with a couple excellent starts.

Donder
07-11-2010, 01:36 PM
No. You trade someone whose value is at his highest when you're not contending. When you're winning, you use them to win.

Yes the Reds seemingly have a surplus of starters. But almost all of them are either young and likely on pitch counts [Leake, Wood] or coming back from injuries and will likely be on pitch counts [Harang, Volquez, Bailey]. The team needs to have guys like Arroyo (and hopefully Cueto) who they can rely on to give them consistency and innings. Just my opinion.

Newman4
07-11-2010, 02:29 PM
Pick up the option and trade him next year if they have trouble getting a new deal worked out

I think this is the best strategy. Arroyo isn't getting any younger and sooner or later is due to start declining. I'm kind of disappointed that he doesn't feel somewhat of an allegiance to the Reds and at least discuss an extension. The Reds paid him quite well the last few years and I think wouldn't try to screw him over and lowball him on an extension. However, if Arroyo is dead set on going free agent then look to trade him in the off season to address other needs.

lidspinner
07-11-2010, 03:15 PM
only if Rockies take Bronson,Yonder and Francisco for Haren and Drew. Heck, give em Maloney while we are at it. Id even give them Frazier to make that deal work out....but they would more than likely want Janish instead

Krawhitham
07-11-2010, 03:24 PM
I think this is the best strategy. Arroyo isn't getting any younger and sooner or later is due to start declining. I'm kind of disappointed that he doesn't feel somewhat of an allegiance to the Reds and at least discuss an extension. The Reds paid him quite well the last few years and I think wouldn't try to screw him over and lowball him on an extension. However, if Arroyo is dead set on going free agent then look to trade him in the off season to address other needs.

He got screwed hard from Boston, I can understand him not wanting it to happen again

krm1580
07-11-2010, 03:46 PM
I think if you can improve the team by moving him then do it. With the lack of pitching available at the deadline this year and his propensity to pitch well in the second half its possible somebody might significantly overpay for him.

GIDP
07-11-2010, 03:47 PM
only if Rockies take Bronson,Yonder and Francisco for Haren and Drew. Heck, give em Maloney while we are at it. Id even give them Frazier to make that deal work out....but they would more than likely want Janish instead

Neither of those players play for the Rockies. They play for the Diamondbacks.

lidspinner
07-11-2010, 03:52 PM
Neither of those players play for the Rockies. They play for the Diamondbacks.

good catch....my bad...I consider all them western teams the same. :beerme: you know what I meant..lol

Kingspoint
07-11-2010, 05:39 PM
No, Vottomatic. I would trade the best Veteran pitcher this team has right now.

RiverRat13
07-11-2010, 07:32 PM
So we go from trying to get Cliff Lee for half a season to wanting to trade the Reds most reliable pitcher for half a season? Makes absolutely no sense. Just think of him as a rental that you don't have to give up anything for if it helps you sleep at night.

Vottomatic
07-11-2010, 07:35 PM
Not necessarly my opinion, but it was mentioned in John Fay's comments on mlbtraderumors.com.

I'm back and forth on it. Agree about not trading when in a pennant race. But also agree that you get more when someone value is at it's highest. And Arroyo did state he wanted to test the FA waters and get a big payday. But that can wait until next season or the offseason.

sabometrics
07-12-2010, 01:01 AM
He didn't say he wanted to test the waters and didn't want to come back to the Reds under any circumstances. He said he wasn't coming back at a discount rate like Rolen, but he would like to stay in Cincinnati. Of course that pretty much means he won't be back, save for possibly his club option next year, but I just thought that should be made more clear.

zjr1717
07-12-2010, 01:06 AM
No


Now that I think about it, No.

Trading Arroyo for even the best pitcher kills the value of adding that guy by trading...quite possibly our most valuable pitcher. He eats more innings, and has more shutdown starts than anybody else on the team. Trade prospects for the improvements, not the guys who have gotten the team to where it is.

Kingspoint
07-12-2010, 02:24 AM
I would trade the best Veteran pitcher this team has right now.

That was supposed to say, "I would "not" trade the best Veteran pitcher this team has right now."

lidspinner
07-12-2010, 06:08 AM
No


Now that I think about it, No.

Trading Arroyo for even the best pitcher kills the value of adding that guy by trading...quite possibly our most valuable pitcher. He eats more innings, and has more shutdown starts than anybody else on the team. Trade prospects for the improvements, not the guys who have gotten the team to where it is.

not saying BO is not our best guy....but Haren has better numbers than Bronson...and you are going to get to keep Haren longer than Bronson....Listen to what Bronson says, he is not signing here for a discount.....Bronson is worth 15 mill.year on the market...the Yanks might give him him15-for 4 years.....we cant do that. So lets get his better half in here right away, especially if we can get Drew to go along......

we have the prospects, we have the pitching......we are basically trading 1.5 years of Bronson for 3 years of Bronson.....Dan Haren is the better pitcher IMO, and I am sure some of you stat junkies can make stuff look otherwise...but to not deal Bronson just because he is our bulldog is crazy if what you can get out of him makes you better.

lidspinner
07-12-2010, 06:09 AM
That was supposed to say, "I would "not" trade the best Veteran pitcher this team has right now."

not even for Dan Haren and Stephen Drew? of course with us throwing more to the even the trade..

Donder
07-12-2010, 07:24 AM
not even for Dan Haren and Stephen Drew? of course with us throwing more to the even the trade..

This is where questions like this always break down. Sure if a team offered the Reds a lopsided deal that included Arroyo you do it. That goes for any player on the team. But the way I read the question "Would you trade Arroyo at the deadline?" suggests that you would actively shop Arroyo. That I would not do.

zjr1717
07-12-2010, 07:54 AM
not saying BO is not our best guy....but Haren has better numbers than Bronson...and you are going to get to keep Haren longer than Bronson....Listen to what Bronson says, he is not signing here for a discount.....Bronson is worth 15 mill.year on the market...the Yanks might give him him15-for 4 years.....we cant do that. So lets get his better half in here right away, especially if we can get Drew to go along......

we have the prospects, we have the pitching......we are basically trading 1.5 years of Bronson for 3 years of Bronson.....Dan Haren is the better pitcher IMO, and I am sure some of you stat junkies can make stuff look otherwise...but to not deal Bronson just because he is our bulldog is crazy if what you can get out of him makes you better.

I wouldn't consider myself, a "stat junkie", though I do believe they hold quite a bit of value, and I consider advanced metrics to be a very important part of evaluating the game, though I am no mathmetician. Also, I'd agree along with you, and I'd say most of the "stat junkies" that Haren is the better pitcher. Bronson's mediocre K/BB ratio probably raises many "stat junkie" alarms, as it does my own and probably most people who read statistics. I don't even think Bronson is really our best pitcher, that honor probably goes to Cueto, but Bronson eats innings at an above average level, and thats very valuable. Bronson walks a fine line between success and disaster but I've watched him do it for years and I've come to believe he'll be able to continue walking said line for the duration of his contract.

You think the Reds should trade Bronson because they can't keep him beyond 2011, why so worried about 2011, they're are no assurances will be in the position we are now then, or the next year, or the next. The Reds need to play for now, now they don't need to sell their entire future for now, but they definitely don't need to sell the present for now. Trading Bronson would probably crush clubhouse morale, and make whatever trade is made, whether it be for Haren or whoever, basically a wash.

Prospects are always suspects until they produce at the major league level, on team thats competing they're no reason a major contributor should be traded over a suspect(prospect).

I guess what I'm trying to say is, why have this?
Haren
Cueto
Volquez
Harang
Wood/Leake

When you can have this...
Haren
Arroyo
Cueto
Volquez
Wood/Leake/Harang

Now thats a rotation...

Also, I almost failed to remember that, if we keep Arroyo through 2011 and then offer him arbitration, we'll most likely get a Type B Compensation pick, so even if we keep Arroyo, we'll probably get a decent prospect out of it.

markymark69
07-12-2010, 09:33 AM
I think this is the best strategy. Arroyo isn't getting any younger and sooner or later is due to start declining. I'm kind of disappointed that he doesn't feel somewhat of an allegiance to the Reds and at least discuss an extension. The Reds paid him quite well the last few years and I think wouldn't try to screw him over and lowball him on an extension. However, if Arroyo is dead set on going free agent then look to trade him in the off season to address other needs.

I say keep him for now. If you could swing a trade for Oswalt or Haren, then buy him out, along with Harang next year and you have the money for them, plus they would replace Arroyo in the rotation and you fill the rest of it out with what you have.

brm7675
07-12-2010, 11:07 AM
It depends:

A) I would see what kind of offers I could get
B) I would want to get Edinison up here right after the ASB and get him 2 outings to gauge his status
C) I would talk with Bronson and see what kind of money and length of deal he is interested in...

I am not saying yes or no...

Girevik
07-12-2010, 12:07 PM
I always say no one is untouchable, but you'd have to blow me away to trade Bronson, and it would have to be a deal that makes me better TODAY, not for prospects. I'm not sure I've heard too many pitchers being talked about as being available that are better then him, and you can't move him unless you get a top SP back...not when you're contending for a spot in the playoffs.

I think you have to keep him, pick up his opting and see how next year goes. If either you've fallen off and aren't in the race, or have enough of the young talent maturing that you think you can live without him next year, consider it then.

AintlifeGrande
07-12-2010, 07:07 PM
No way Arroyo needs to go.You need a solid veteran to anchor a young rotation.Those young kids need to learn what it takes to succeed on the mound.Harang ain't been much of an example this year.

lidspinner
07-12-2010, 09:28 PM
I posted this in another trade thread, I am not going to start a new thread...but here is my idea....

Trade Bronson, Yonder, Janish, and a few prospects not named Wood,Chapman

to Arizona for Dan Haren and Stephen Drew

Dan Haren is better than Bronson...eats more innings than Bronson, better ERA, better whip.....guy is just better IMO.... Haren is getting about what Bronson is worth right now and Bronson is going to test the free agent waters, that is fact....and depending on what the Yanks and Red Sox need at that time, he might fetch 15mill/5 years. We just cannot afford that or anything close to it....so lets get rid of Bronson no while he is worth his most. Plus you can control Haren for another 2 years.

Plus, we get the SS of our future....but he is the SS of their future as well so we are going to have to give up a kings ransom to get him....but I say do it....so lets add to the thread a little if thats ok....who would you add to this combo to get Haren and Drew?

Bronson
Yonder
Janish
?
?
?

would you dip into Frazier? Cozart? Dorn? Heisey?
its going to take alot....but we get a bulldog pitcher this year and 2 more...and maybe the SS for the next 10 years.

Ohioballplayer
07-12-2010, 10:35 PM
I posted this in another trade thread, I am not going to start a new thread...but here is my idea....

Trade Bronson, Yonder, Janish, and a few prospects not named Wood,Chapman

to Arizona for Dan Haren and Stephen Drew

Dan Haren is better than Bronson...eats more innings than Bronson, better ERA, better whip.....guy is just better IMO.... Haren is getting about what Bronson is worth right now and Bronson is going to test the free agent waters, that is fact....and depending on what the Yanks and Red Sox need at that time, he might fetch 15mill/5 years. We just cannot afford that or anything close to it....so lets get rid of Bronson no while he is worth his most. Plus you can control Haren for another 2 years.

Plus, we get the SS of our future....but he is the SS of their future as well so we are going to have to give up a kings ransom to get him....but I say do it....so lets add to the thread a little if thats ok....who would you add to this combo to get Haren and Drew?

Bronson
Yonder
Janish
?
?
?

would you dip into Frazier? Cozart? Dorn? Heisey?
its going to take alot....but we get a bulldog pitcher this year and 2 more...and maybe the SS for the next 10 years.

I would do this, you are right Haren while struggling now, has way more upside than BA, Bronson, Yonder, Janish, maybe Dorn. I know all will say that BA has a great 2nd half every year, but what if his year is reversed this year, what if he goes 4-9?

RiverRat13
07-12-2010, 10:50 PM
Why would Arizona want Bronson Arroyo is they are dumping Dan Haren?

Roush's socks
07-13-2010, 12:14 AM
I think they would have to be sure that either Volquez or Bailey is going to be able to come back full strength for the 2nd half, before they consider trading Arroyo.

couch_manager
07-13-2010, 12:19 AM
I don't think they're trading Arroyo either. Why would a contending ball club trade one of their better pitchers in a pennant race? That would just mean one more rookie in the starting rotation than there needs to be. Granted, our rookies are pretty good. But the back of their baseball cards don't show a track record yet and that's not enough for me to let go of a known quantity in Arroyo.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
07-13-2010, 12:38 AM
not even for Dan Haren and Stephen Drew? of course with us throwing more to the even the trade..

If Arizona is going to trade for Arroyo, why wouldn't they just hold on to Haren and swap Drew for prospects. Arroyo does nothing for their future, if we can't sign him when he hits FA, Arizona can't either. The only reason I could see them doing this is if Arizona traded Haren and Drew to the Reds for Arroyo and say 3 decent prospects and then turned around and traded Arroyo to another team for a few prospects, that might make sense.

BLEEDS
07-13-2010, 12:55 AM
No Way, No How.

Unless there is someone looking to dump salary of a Big-Name guy that could be with us long-term. That is unlikely to happen at this point.

The best thing to do with Bronson, is pick up his 2011 option, let him play out his "contract year" where everyone seems to pick it up a notch - then consider offering him arbitration, although it's a risk he'd accept it resulting in a HUGE one year deal, or he declines and we get the comp pick(s).

With Harang and Arroyo both on options, there is ZERO chance we are going to throw away $4M, so we're likely keeping one.
Going with sunk cost considerations, you basically have $9M to find a replacement for Arroyo. That's going to be nearly impossible in the off-season.

Another year of practically guaranteed 200+ innings, low 4. ERA, etc, etc; if THAT is not worth $9M to this roster of otherwise youthful and/or questionable arms, I don't know that is.

STILL, he's tradeable, I just think the scenario is unlikely to happen because we're really in NO NEED to get rid of him this year. 2011 we can revisit trading him since he's in his walk year.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

lidspinner
07-13-2010, 08:10 AM
If Arizona is going to trade for Arroyo, why wouldn't they just hold on to Haren and swap Drew for prospects. Arroyo does nothing for their future, if we can't sign him when he hits FA, Arizona can't either. The only reason I could see them doing this is if Arizona traded Haren and Drew to the Reds for Arroyo and say 3 decent prospects and then turned around and traded Arroyo to another team for a few prospects, that might make sense.


For the same reason the Mariners traded for Cliff Lee...and you mentioned it in your post....The Backs can turn around and trade Bronson at the deadline next year and if he does as good or better than this year, he will fetch a good prospect or 2.....it helps Arizona longterm.

lidspinner
07-13-2010, 08:18 AM
No Way, No How.

Unless there is someone looking to dump salary of a Big-Name guy that could be with us long-term. That is unlikely to happen at this point.

The best thing to do with Bronson, is pick up his 2011 option, let him play out his "contract year" where everyone seems to pick it up a notch - then consider offering him arbitration, although it's a risk he'd accept it resulting in a HUGE one year deal, or he declines and we get the comp pick(s).

With Harang and Arroyo both on options, there is ZERO chance we are going to throw away $4M, so we're likely keeping one.
Going with sunk cost considerations, you basically have $9M to find a replacement for Arroyo. That's going to be nearly impossible in the off-season.

Another year of practically guaranteed 200+ innings, low 4. ERA, etc, etc; if THAT is not worth $9M to this roster of otherwise youthful and/or questionable arms, I don't know that is.

STILL, he's tradeable, I just think the scenario is unlikely to happen because we're really in NO NEED to get rid of him this year. 2011 we can revisit trading him since he's in his walk year.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BLEEDS....by doing the trade I suggested, you are prolonging having to get rid of the pitcher until 2013....Yuo keep Dan Haren untill 2013 and he is cheaper than Bronson and puts up more innings, better ERA, and better WHIP. So we would get a better pitcher for a longer amount of time before we have to offer ARB or dump his contract.......

small market teams have to get creative and this gets creative.....the problem here is what we would have to give up to get haren and drew....it would take at least 2, if not 3 of our prospects and Janish to get make that deal happen.

Is it Dan Haren? Is that why you dont like it? or do you just not want to get rid of Bronson fearing that it will break up team chemistry?

Kingspoint
07-13-2010, 01:32 PM
As I said a month ago, the best player we could acquire in a trade to help this team is to add Stephen Drew to the team and then dump Cabrera.

Would love to see that happen.

vottofan4life
07-13-2010, 02:18 PM
I think if any of our pitchers are traded it needs to be Homer Bailey...
A package of Homer Bailey, Yonder Alonso, Drew Stubbs, Enerio Del Rosario for Dan Haren and Chris Young or Zach Grienke and David Dejesus and then ship off Harang for prospects

brm7675
07-13-2010, 02:29 PM
I am willing to bet the following:

The Reds will not add a SP via trade this season.
The Reds will not add a major starting position player via trade this season
The Reds will continue to play Orlando and Rolen 95% of the time baring injury
The Reds will add via trade a bullpen arm by giving away a good young minor leaguer.

BLEEDS
07-14-2010, 01:23 AM
BLEEDS....by doing the trade I suggested, you are prolonging having to get rid of the pitcher until 2013....Yuo keep Dan Haren untill 2013 and he is cheaper than Bronson and puts up more innings, better ERA, and better WHIP. So we would get a better pitcher for a longer amount of time before we have to offer ARB or dump his contract.......

small market teams have to get creative and this gets creative.....the problem here is what we would have to give up to get haren and drew....it would take at least 2, if not 3 of our prospects and Janish to get make that deal happen.

Is it Dan Haren? Is that why you dont like it? or do you just not want to get rid of Bronson fearing that it will break up team chemistry?


As I said a month ago, the best player we could acquire in a trade to help this team is to add Stephen Drew to the team and then dump Cabrera.

Would love to see that happen.

I just see absolutely NO reason that Arizona trades Haren, let alone Drew, let alone BOTH?!?! What is their motivation?

No sense at all, just another crazy pipe-dream MLB the Show video game GM craziness.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

lidspinner
07-14-2010, 08:49 AM
I just see absolutely NO reason that Arizona trades Haren, let alone Drew, let alone BOTH?!?! What is their motivation?

No sense at all, just another crazy pipe-dream MLB the Show video game GM craziness.

PEACE

-BLEEDS


you mean like Josh Hamilton for Edinson Volquez

or like Cliff Lee getting traded before the ASB, when everyone said it would be late July, closer to the deadline?

Or like The Phillies trading Lee last year after trading for him?

I can go on and on....there are obvious bennys to Zona trading both of them right now....its obvious they are trying to dump salary and get prospects...depending on what they want, they are going to have to give up something.

BLEEDS
07-14-2010, 10:46 AM
you mean like Josh Hamilton for Edinson Volquez

or like Cliff Lee getting traded before the ASB, when everyone said it would be late July, closer to the deadline?

Or like The Phillies trading Lee last year after trading for him?

I can go on and on....there are obvious bennys to Zona trading both of them right now....its obvious they are trying to dump salary and get prospects...depending on what they want, they are going to have to give up something.

right. you could go on and on....but still wouldn't explain why they would give up a Cheap solid young SS in the name of salary relief AND\OR wanting prospects.

PEACE

-BLEEDS