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nate
07-12-2010, 11:26 AM
Check (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-the-cincinnati-reds-should-do/) it out:


there are still some questions about the Reds. They have a solid +45 run differential, but their 49-40 record entering the final day of the first half was over three games better than their 45.9-43.1 3rd order mark. The Cardinals are probably a more talented team right now, but the Reds have talented pieces of their own with a promising future. Right now, however, we focus on the present.

kaldaniels
07-12-2010, 11:47 AM
Check (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-the-cincinnati-reds-should-do/) it out:

Can't argue with a single thing that article says. It is that simple. Well done.

nate
07-12-2010, 11:55 AM
Can't argue with a single thing that article says. It is that simple. Well done.

Yeah, it's interesting. I thought the bit where they talked about O-Cab's season .278 wOBA vs. Janish's projected .295 wOBA was a real eye-opener. As I posted in another thread, O-Cab would have to OPS in the mid-.800s to finish the season at his career average. While that would be great, he's only had about three season halves > .800 OPS.

I really think the SS situation needs to be addressed during the break. Janish and O-Cab are 8-hole hitters and at the very least, Janish needs to be getting a couple-three starts a week.

Scrap Irony
07-12-2010, 12:01 PM
They compared OCab's projcted 313 wOBA to Janish's projected 278, IIRC. It wouldn't make any sense to compare what has already happened to what is projected in this situation.

Homer Bailey
07-12-2010, 12:15 PM
I'm holding out hope that OC can have a 2nd half like he had last year, but I've fully shifted over to the Janish bandwagon as of now. I still think OC is the better option if he is going to hit .280+ like he was early in the season, but who knows what he actually still is. Regardless, he appears to need at least 2 days off per week.

nate
07-12-2010, 12:17 PM
Ibut who knows what he actually still is.

Dennis Green?

:cool:

Falls City Beer
07-12-2010, 12:18 PM
OCab just needs to face some pin-straight fastballs from crap Pittsburgh pitchers.

Scrap Irony
07-12-2010, 12:27 PM
And get a three day rest.

I'm betting he stars hitting again right after the break, but again slows down at the end of the year. He's old and needs more rest.

I'm guessing Baker rests him a bit more in the second half, playing Redszone's favored son, Roberto Pet--, I mean, Chris Den-- I mean, Brady Cl--, I mean, Chris Dic--, I mean, Paul Janish.

BRM
07-12-2010, 12:32 PM
I'm guessing Baker rests him a bit more in the second half, playing Redszone's favored son, Roberto Pet--, I mean, Chris Den-- I mean, Brady Cl--, I mean, Chris Dic--, I mean, Paul Janish.

Those guys all had quite a few detractors as well so I don't know that I'd call them "Redszone's favored son".

RedsManRick
07-12-2010, 12:35 PM
If you think SS is a problem, then you think LF is a problem. Both have unproven internal "solutions" where the primary value would come through improved defense.

Razor Shines
07-12-2010, 12:38 PM
And get a three day rest.

I'm betting he stars hitting again right after the break, but again slows down at the end of the year. He's old and needs more rest.

I'm guessing Baker rests him a bit more in the second half, playing Redszone's favored son, Roberto Pet--, I mean, Chris Den-- I mean, Brady Cl--, I mean, Chris Dic--, I mean, Paul Janish.

I don't know anyone who is saying that Janish is a good ML SS, we're just saying that he's better than OCab.

nate
07-12-2010, 01:05 PM
If you think SS is a problem, then you think LF is a problem. Both have unproven internal "solutions" where the primary value would come through improved defense.

Verily. I'd love a David DeJesus. Failing that, just play Heisey and Janish (more) and shore up the pitching needs.

nate
07-12-2010, 01:15 PM
Those guys all had quite a few detractors as well so I don't know that I'd call them "Redszone's favored son".

Right.

To me, the whole "Redszone favorite: Chris Denorfia" meme is played. I found that bit to be more joke than anything.

I never quite know what to make of the "Redszone thought _______ would be good and look what happened" point. Seems very non-correlative to me.

BRM
07-12-2010, 01:19 PM
I never quite know what to make of the "Redszone thought _______ would be good and look what happened" point. Seems very non-correlative to me.

Agreed. RZ has lots of members. All with their own thoughts and ideas. The "RZ thinks this" or "RZ hates that" stuff never made sense to me.

KoryMac5
07-12-2010, 01:45 PM
After seeing Janish get a couple of hits off Hamels yesterday and also based on his improved performance at the dish in limited AB's. I would be all for getting him some more playing time. I just don't think Dusty is going to go for that based on O Cab's veteran prescence and the intangibles he supposedly brings to the locker room and the field.

Scrap Irony
07-12-2010, 01:53 PM
I thought of writing "Specific sections of Redszone, after having perused minor league splits across four levels, on-base percentage, and a lack of playing time in the major leagues, while reconizing the possibility of small sample size issues inherent within projection, prefer ___________________".

But it was a little wordy.

Maybe next time! :)

(I'd also love to see a poll of Janish v. Cabrera. I'd bet Janish wins Redszone's "favored-- umm, I mean... Well, whatever, in a landslide.)

BRM
07-12-2010, 01:56 PM
Nice snark. Well done. :)

jojo
07-12-2010, 01:58 PM
If you think SS is a problem, then you think LF is a problem. Both have unproven internal "solutions" where the primary value would come through improved defense.

I think both are a problem. The pen could use a boost too.

BRM
07-12-2010, 02:03 PM
I don't think Dusty will change anything going forward with respect to the lineup. The team is winning and the offense is doing well overall so I think he'll leave it alone.

Scrap Irony
07-12-2010, 02:07 PM
I don't think Dusty will change anything going forward with respect to the lineup. The team is winning and the offense is doing well overall so I think he'll leave it alone.

I think you are absolutely correct.

TheNext44
07-12-2010, 02:36 PM
The writer incorrectly that suggested that the Reds could not afford Haren. A quick look at Cot's and he would see that they can. Can't blame him, he's in school and probably didn't have a lot of time to research the article. lol

But seriously, I don't think SS is a problem. Yeah, I could be improved, but it's not something so bad that if not addressed the Reds can't win the division.

Starting pitching and the closer on the other hand...

15fan
07-12-2010, 03:53 PM
But seriously, I don't think SS is a problem. Yeah, I could be improved, but it's not something so bad that if not addressed the Reds can't win the division.

At the ASB, only Yadier Molina in the NL has a lower OPS (.595) than Cabrera's .612.

As a couple of reference points: Juan Castro's career OPS is .595. Royce Clayton retired with a .679 OPS, and Pokey Reese hung it up with a .659 OPS.

RedsManRick
07-12-2010, 04:29 PM
OCab has had some bad luck on the BABIP front, so I expect his 2nd half OPS to come up closer to .700. That said, I believe Janish will OPS in that range as well and is CLEARLY a better defender. I recognize that OCab will be our primary starter, so long as he's on the team. What bugs me is the damage his mediocre defense does to our pitching staff.

nate
07-12-2010, 04:51 PM
OCab has had some bad luck on the BABIP front, so I expect his 2nd half OPS to come up closer to .700. That said, I believe Janish will OPS in that range as well and is CLEARLY a better defender. I recognize that OCab will be our primary starter, so long as he's on the team. What bugs me is the damage his mediocre defense does to our pitching staff.

I'm hard-pressed to figure out if his defense (his problem) or his batting order spot (Dusty's problem) is more of an issue.

For fun, I did a mid-season evaluation using the Baseball Musings lineup analysis tool. I punched in the most common lineup I could rememer:

BP
O-Cab
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
Stubbs
Catcher (average stats of all our catchers)
Pitcher (same)

The tool predicted that lineup would score 4.96 runs per game or 804 runs on the season.

The Reds have played 90 games and scored 437 runs which works out to 4.86 runs per game or 787 runs on the season. Pretty close!

The best (http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=phillips&OBA0=+0.351&Slug0=+0.469&Player1=cabrera&OBA1=+0.283&Slug1=+0.329&Player2=votto&OBA2=+0.422&Slug2=+0.589&Player3=rolen&OBA3=+0.361&Slug3=+0.548&Player4=gomes&OBA4=+0.330&Slug4=+0.471&Player5=bruce&OBA5=+0.339&Slug5=+0.446&Player6=stubbs&OBA6=+0.310&Slug6=+0.399&Player7=catcher&OBA7=+0.376&Slug7=+0.417&Player8=pitcher&OBA8=+0.245&Slug8=+0.280&Model=0) lineup the tool came up with would score 5.23 runs per game or 847 runs on the season.

Now, many of those lineups had the catcher leading off (I've heard that somewhere!) or Votto. Very few had O-Cab hitting higher than 6th although one had him hitting 3rd. The 1998-2002 had better results for the optimized lineup than the 1959-2004 model.

Offensively, I think a couple wins could be found just via better lineup. Defensively, I think a couple wins could be found on the bench. Add in a starting pitcher who could throw in a couple wins and it seems one could find a 6-ish win improvement doing very little.

Homer Bailey
07-12-2010, 05:42 PM
OCab has had some bad luck on the BABIP front, so I expect his 2nd half OPS to come up closer to .700. That said, I believe Janish will OPS in that range as well and is CLEARLY a better defender. I recognize that OCab will be our primary starter, so long as he's on the team. What bugs me is the damage his mediocre defense does to our pitching staff.

I'm curious as to what makes you say that his defense is mediocre. Fangraphs has him as a slightly above average defender so far this. As it has been often said that you need about 3 years worth of data for UZR to mean anything, fangraphs also has him as a slightly above average defender over the last 3 years.

I will grant you that Janish's glove is better than OC's, and that OC's bat has been well below average, but the numbers, and my eyes tell me that OC has not been nearly as bad on D as many on this board have made him out to be.

That being said, it's tough to argue that OC is the better option at SS right now.

Big Klu
07-12-2010, 05:42 PM
Right.

To me, the whole "Redszone favorite: Chris Denorfia" meme is played. I found that bit to be more joke than anything.

You thought the folks calling for Chris Denorfia as a solution in the OF were joking? That's not how I saw it at all.

nate
07-12-2010, 06:09 PM
You thought the folks calling for Chris Denorfia as a solution in the OF were joking? That's not how I saw it at all.

I think a lot of jokes grew out of that, yes.

RedsManRick
07-12-2010, 06:11 PM
You thought the folks calling for Chris Denorfia as a solution in the OF were joking? That's not how I saw it at all.

I think a lot of jokes grew out of that, yes.
I was never joking about Denorfia, but we should use the term "solution" lightly. Like Brady Clark before him, and Chris Heisey today, he was viewed by many not necessarily an ideal solution, but as the best of the available options.

nate
07-12-2010, 06:15 PM
I'm curious as to what makes you say that his defense is mediocre. Fangraphs has him as a slightly above average defender so far this. As it has been often said that you need about 3 years worth of data for UZR to mean anything, fangraphs also has him as a slightly above average defender over the last 3 years.

I will grant you that Janish's glove is better than OC's, and that OC's bat has been well below average, but the numbers, and my eyes tell me that OC has not been nearly as bad on D as many on this board have made him out to be.

I've seen probably 90% of the games and according to my personal WoTV score, he's looked pretty bad out there; he has Hairston-esque range but a decent arm.

edabbs44
07-12-2010, 06:20 PM
I've seen probably 90% of the games and according to my personal WoTV score, he's looked pretty bad out there; he has Hairston-esque range but a decent arm.

So you aren't a buyer of UZR either? Because that stat has him in the top 40% of the majors at the position this year.

edabbs44
07-12-2010, 06:22 PM
OCab has had some bad luck on the BABIP front, so I expect his 2nd half OPS to come up closer to .700. That said, I believe Janish will OPS in that range as well and is CLEARLY a better defender. I recognize that OCab will be our primary starter, so long as he's on the team. What bugs me is the damage his mediocre defense does to our pitching staff.

Rick, as a serious question (and since you alluded to it here) don't you think the smart money would be on OC in the 2nd half? That is, barring that he is injured and will be moving fwd.

Homer Bailey
07-12-2010, 06:39 PM
I've seen probably 90% of the games and according to my personal WoTV score, he's looked pretty bad out there; he has Hairston-esque range but a decent arm.

Do to the extreme length of our back and forth on the WoTV metric in the Gomes thread(s), I'm inclined to believe that you are kidding here. However, there is no trademark Nate :cool: emoticon, so I'm a bit worried here.

I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you aren't 100% contradicting yourself. :cool:

nate
07-12-2010, 06:54 PM
Do to the extreme length of our back and forth on the WoTV metric in the Gomes thread(s), I'm inclined to believe that you are kidding here. However, there is no trademark Nate :cool: emoticon, so I'm a bit worried here.

I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you aren't 100% contradicting yourself. :cool:

How am I contradicting myself?

OnBaseMachine
07-12-2010, 07:04 PM
I've seen probably 90% of the games and according to my personal WoTV score, he's looked pretty bad out there; he has Hairston-esque range but a decent arm.

I agree with this. I've watched almost every game this season including five games in person and my eyes tell me his range is below average at this point in his career. He looks even worse in person.

RedsManRick
07-12-2010, 07:33 PM
Rick, as a serious question (and since you alluded to it here) don't you think the smart money would be on OC in the 2nd half? That is, barring that he is injured and will be moving fwd.

Offensively, I think it's it 50/50 between OCab and Janish. But I think the defensive difference makes up the expected offensive difference -- plus I think there's a reasonable chance that Janish outhits Cabrera.

I recognize that Cabrera has been dealing with a bum wheel and suffering from some bad BABIP related luck. As such, I expect something from him like what he did last year: .284/.316/.380. I don't see much upside beyond that and a decent amount of downside given his age.

From Janish, I'd put a median project of .250/.320/.360, but with .280/.380/.400 potential. You look at his last two years and he's had BABIPs of .230 and .247 while putting up solid LD%. He's always been able to draw a walk and his strikeouts are trending down as his contact rate has gone up and swinging strike rate down. Given what we've heard about his offseason focus, given that he's in his prime, and given that his current .860 OPS is supported by a reasonable .311 BABIP, I think it's completely reasonable to think he could out OPS Cabrera. And because his OBP is more heavily weighted towards OPS, his actually offensive production would be superior, particularly leading off or in the 2 hole.

As for defense, scouting/observing alone tells that Janish is the clearly superior defender. UZR estimates put that difference at around 10 runs over a full season. I think that it's highly likely that defensive difference would be realized given the opportunity. If you grant that, you need to believe that Cabrera will out-produce Janish at the plate by an even greater margin to be the better bet.

A 4 to 5 run difference in UZR is equal to a 20 point difference in wOBA over 250 PA. (wOBA is basically a more accurate version of OPS, scaled to OBP -- .330 is league average). So let's say that Cabrera puts up the same .310 wOBA he did last year. Janish could put up a .290 wOBA and produce the same as Cabrera overall. Janish's career wOBA is .282. Last year it was .275. This year it's at .370. Cabrera is currently at .278.

In other words, Janish would have to hit like Cabrera has so far this year for Cabrera, hitting like he did last year, to be his equal. In short, if both guys were healthy and given 250 PA and 600 Innings in the field, I'd put my money on Janish being the more productive player and I wouldn't hesitate for a second in doing so.

Homer Bailey
07-12-2010, 07:52 PM
How am I contradicting myself?

You shredded the WoTV metric in many-a-Gomes thread. Now you're using it for OC?

nate
07-12-2010, 08:37 PM
You shredded the WoTV metric

Did I? Or did I simply say it's incomplete?


in many-a-Gomes thread. Now you're using it for OC?

As I've said many times, I use both. I could buy that he's averagish to perhaps even slightly above average and when I weight his last three years along with regressing this year, he goes from a 15.2 defender to a 3.63 guy which would seem to confirm that. Divide that by three to get a yearly number and it's 1.21, not entirely different than the 1.8 he's got so far on the year.

(The above math isn't part of any system other than my interpretation of reading the UZR primer)

And it goes to my larger point about the mind's ability to see, recall and process all of these events. It can't. The metrics can. There's probably some confirmation bias while we're enjoying great hilarity in chat as well. But all I can say is, he's looked bad out there. I actually wonder if he might need glasses because based on some of the balls he swings at and a couple of plays where he's dived OVER a ball, he looks like he doesn't see well.

That being said, the metrics do say he's made the fewest out of zone plays of any SS with 700 defensive innings. They also say he's middle of the pack at making plays on balls in zone so maybe what I'm remember is correct but it's only a small part of what makes up "defense."

So I'll split the difference between "slightly above average" and "pretty bad" and call him "blahverage" with the glove.

High five?

Is now a good time to talk about Gomes' UZR rating so far this season?

:cool:

Homer Bailey
07-12-2010, 11:51 PM
Did I? Or did I simply say it's incomplete?

To-may-toe to-mah-toe :cool:


As I've said many times, I use both.

As was my case in the Gomes thread.


I could buy that he's averagish to perhaps even slightly above average and when I weight his last three years along with regressing this year, he goes from a 15.2 defender to a 3.63 guy which would seem to confirm that. Divide that by three to get a yearly number and it's 1.21, not entirely different than the 1.8 he's got so far on the year.

(The above math isn't part of any system other than my interpretation of reading the UZR primer)

Calculation sounds about right in my book.


And it goes to my larger point about the mind's ability to see, recall and process all of these events. It can't. The metrics can. There's probably some confirmation bias while we're enjoying great hilarity in chat as well. But all I can say is, he's looked bad out there. I actually wonder if he might need glasses because based on some of the balls he swings at and a couple of plays where he's dived OVER a ball, he looks like he doesn't see well.

Agree with all except I just don't think he's been that bad (WoTV). I'd say confirmation bias exists all over this board, with myself being very guilty of it as well. I think there is a LOT of it with Cabrera's defense, as he was AWFUL in that first week. Most balls that he gets to, its an out.


That being said, the metrics do say he's made the fewest out of zone plays of any SS with 700 defensive innings. They also say he's middle of the pack at making plays on balls in zone so maybe what I'm remember is correct but it's only a small part of what makes up "defense."

So I'll split the difference between "slightly above average" and "pretty bad" and call him "blahverage" with the glove.

:thumbup:


High five?

http://i43.tinypic.com/2psisli.jpg




Is now a good time to talk about Gomes' UZR rating so far this season?

http://www.creepygif.com/images/full/921.gif

Mario-Rijo
07-13-2010, 04:48 AM
I'm hard-pressed to figure out if his defense (his problem) or his batting order spot (Dusty's problem) is more of an issue.

For fun, I did a mid-season evaluation using the Baseball Musings lineup analysis tool. I punched in the most common lineup I could rememer:

BP
O-Cab
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
Stubbs
Catcher (average stats of all our catchers)
Pitcher (same)

The tool predicted that lineup would score 4.96 runs per game or 804 runs on the season.

The Reds have played 90 games and scored 437 runs which works out to 4.86 runs per game or 787 runs on the season. Pretty close!

The best (http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=phillips&OBA0=+0.351&Slug0=+0.469&Player1=cabrera&OBA1=+0.283&Slug1=+0.329&Player2=votto&OBA2=+0.422&Slug2=+0.589&Player3=rolen&OBA3=+0.361&Slug3=+0.548&Player4=gomes&OBA4=+0.330&Slug4=+0.471&Player5=bruce&OBA5=+0.339&Slug5=+0.446&Player6=stubbs&OBA6=+0.310&Slug6=+0.399&Player7=catcher&OBA7=+0.376&Slug7=+0.417&Player8=pitcher&OBA8=+0.245&Slug8=+0.280&Model=0) lineup the tool came up with would score 5.23 runs per game or 847 runs on the season.

Now, many of those lineups had the catcher leading off (I've heard that somewhere!) or Votto. Very few had O-Cab hitting higher than 6th although one had him hitting 3rd. The 1998-2002 had better results for the optimized lineup than the 1959-2004 model.

Offensively, I think a couple wins could be found just via better lineup. Defensively, I think a couple wins could be found on the bench. Add in a starting pitcher who could throw in a couple wins and it seems one could find a 6-ish win improvement doing very little.

That lineup might do better if it had a LF in it. ;)

nate
07-13-2010, 08:17 AM
To-may-toe to-mah-toe :cool:

I dunno. I think there's a chasm of difference between "shredding" and "incomplete."


Agree with all except I just don't think he's been that bad (WoTV). I'd say confirmation bias exists all over this board, with myself being very guilty of it as well. I think there is a LOT of it with Cabrera's defense, as he was AWFUL in that first week. Most balls that he gets to, its an out.

For me, it's not so much the difference between O-Cab and the league, it's the difference between O-Cab and Janish.

nate
07-13-2010, 08:18 AM
That lineup might do better if it had a LF in it. ;)

I'm eschewing the LF in favor of a dragon-mounted wizard.

:cool:

(Gomes was in the 5-spot)

buckeyenut
07-13-2010, 02:51 PM
At the ASB, only Yadier Molina in the NL has a lower OPS (.595) than Cabrera's .612.

As a couple of reference points: Juan Castro's career OPS is .595. Royce Clayton retired with a .679 OPS, and Pokey Reese hung it up with a .659 OPS.
The sad thing about that is that it should read NL allstar starting catcher Yadier Molina. Evidence the rules for AS game need changed.

Chip R
07-13-2010, 04:42 PM
I don't think Dusty will change anything going forward with respect to the lineup. The team is winning and the offense is doing well overall so I think he'll leave it alone.


Dusty has changed the basic structure of the lineup twice this season.

Will M
07-18-2010, 12:59 PM
Several things have happened recently that have altered my view of what the Reds biggest need(s) is.
#1 The return & dominance of Volquez (albeit for just one start) & the big spash made by Travis Wood. While any team could always use another TOR starter I see a Reds rotation of Volquez-Cueto-Arroyo-Wood-Leake as pretty good & matching up well with the Cardinals & their poor BOR starters. Add in the return of Harang and maybe Bailey & the rotation looks good.
#2 The improved middle relief (Ondrusek, Bray, Smith & a better Masset)
#3 The return to planet earth of Gomes

Two things have been a sore spot all season: Cabrera & Cordero.

Here is what I see the Reds "wish list" being:
1. another TOR starter to make a 1-2 punch in October
2. 8th/9th inning reliever
3. shortstop
4. LH bat to play LF

We have seen a lot of low scoring games in the last few weeks. I personally feel that improving the day to day lineup is the most important need the team has. The ways to do this are...
1. find a LH outfield bat better than Nix or Dickerson
2. find a SS better than Cabrera or Janish