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OnBaseMachine
07-14-2010, 12:39 AM
Reds shortstop prospect Junior Arias went 2-for-3 with a HR and 3 RBI tonight against the Brewers 2009 first round pick, RHP Eric Arnett. Arias has been tearing apart the Arizona League. After tonight, Arias is now hitting .342/.374/.620 - .994 OPS with 6 doubles, 2 triples, and 4 HR in 79 atbats. He's only 18 years old and has a projectable frame at 6-foot-2, 178 pounds and has plenty of tools. The Reds signed him in 2008 out of the Dominican Republic for around $330,000, though Baseball America reported he would have received a higher bonus if not for an elbow injury.

From the looks of things so far, the Reds may have gotten a steal. He needs to improve his plate discipline but he's still very young and has plenty of time for that. His power looks legit. I think he could end up being our version of a Starlin Castro type of prospect.

Here's what Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus had to say about him today:


Juan Arias, SS, Reds (Rookie-level AZL Reds): 2-for-4, HR (3), R, 4 RBI, K. Projectable, athletic shortstop is generating a lot of buzz in Arizona with .329/.363/.579 batting line, but also has 12 errors in 16 games, including two more last night.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/minorleagueupdate/

zjr1717
07-14-2010, 01:32 AM
Will he be able to remain at Shortstop? Or is he the type of guy that is likely to grow out of the position? How is his range now?

bellhead
07-14-2010, 08:00 AM
The next few years could be something special for the Reds, with a solid nucleus already in Cincinnati and major talent coming up from the minors. The Latin American strategy of signing big time prospects could be paying off in the next 2 to 3 years big time. The Reds have been putting major money around 3 to 5 million a year over the last few years into signing these prospects. Well it seems to be paying off now as we see these 16 years that were signed several years ago begin to tear up the lower levels of minor league ball. Yorman, Juan, Junior all have the potential to be Gold Glove/Silver Slugger types at the major league level.

texasdave
07-14-2010, 09:31 AM
How does this kid from Venezuela, Ronald Torreyes, stack up? It seems as if everytime I look he has another multi-hit game. He is only 17 years old. He is batting .387/.454/.630/1.084. He has walked 12 times and struck out just 7. He has knocked out 29 extra base hits in just under 200 PA. He plays 2nd, 3rd, SS and LF. I don't know what the quality of that league is but whatever it is he is absolutely dominating it. His OPS is currently 170 points higher than the number two guy.

Scrap Irony
07-14-2010, 10:08 AM
I'd like to see Torreyes sent up to Arizona or even Billings, assuming it's not visa problems that are keeping him in Venezuela. He's getting little out of bashing that league aside from confidence.

He could play the super-sub role at either place, so he's not taking some other prospect's spot.

Homer Bailey
07-14-2010, 10:12 AM
12 errors in 16 games really sticks out doesn't it? It doesn't sound like he has much of a future at SS.

Mario-Rijo
07-14-2010, 10:27 AM
12 errors in 16 games really sticks out doesn't it? It doesn't sound like he has much of a future at SS.

Way too soon to tell.

GIDP
07-14-2010, 11:05 AM
12 errors in 16 games really sticks out doesn't it? It doesn't sound like he has much of a future at SS.

Who knows what the 12 errors are from, plus hes young.

lollipopcurve
07-14-2010, 11:14 AM
Let's not jump the gun. I've read somewhere that some think he'll end up on 3rd. And the AZL is a nice hitters league.

It's very encouraging when these high-dollar signs from Latin America adjust quickly, but I tend to wait till prospect rankings come out before letting myself think a kid may be an above-average major leaguer someday.

tbball10
07-14-2010, 11:45 AM
He left the game early last night, so hopefully it is not too serious. He is torching the ball in the ASL so far!

OnBaseMachine
07-14-2010, 11:50 AM
Let's not jump the gun. I've read somewhere that some think he'll end up on 3rd. And the AZL is a nice hitters league.

It's very encouraging when these high-dollar signs from Latin America adjust quickly, but I tend to wait till prospect rankings come out before letting myself think a kid may be an above-average major leaguer someday.

Keith Law rated him as the Reds 10th best prospect this past offseason and that was pretty much based on potential alone considering he had only played in the DSL at that point. Everything I've read on Arias says he has the defensive tools to stick at shortstop.

I don't pay much attention to errors in rookie ball. IIRC, Derek Jeter made 50+ errors in rookie ball. Usually the fields are a little rough compared to most and the players are raw.

jmcclain19
07-14-2010, 12:31 PM
Keith Law rated him as the Reds 10th best prospect this past offseason and that was pretty much based on potential alone considering he had only played in the DSL at that point. Everything I've read on Arias says he has the defensive tools to stick at shortstop.

I don't pay much attention to errors in rookie ball. IIRC, Derek Jeter made 50+ errors in rookie ball. Usually the fields are a little rough compared to most and the players are raw.

Special emphasis on that last part.

The AZL Reds play in Goodyear at the Reds ST facility so the fields shouldn't be the issue.

But don't discount bad 1B- and trying to do too much in his first appearnce on US Soil.

For 18 year olds, I worry less about what #s they are putting up, and more about what the scouts are saying his long term potential is.

dougdirt
07-14-2010, 01:26 PM
For those saying the league is hitter friendly, you are right. However, right now Arias has a .250 IsoP, which compared to last years AZL crop, is the best of any teenager and better than everyone in the league except 6 guys (in 2009). He is certainly a little raw (check the errors and the plate discipline), but he is showing incredibly impressive power.

New Fever
07-14-2010, 01:30 PM
From Kevin Goldstein today:

Junior Arias, SS, Reds (Rookie-level AZL Reds): 2-for-3, HR (4), R, 3 RBI. Again, there is some very serious buzz on this kid; home runs in back-to-back games and batting .342/.373/.620.

lollipopcurve
07-14-2010, 01:36 PM
Again, there is some very serious buzz on this kid

Hmm. Buzz is good. Serious buzz is real good. Very serious buzz.... What ARE "they" saying about Arias?

GIDP
07-14-2010, 01:37 PM
Hmm. Buzz is good. Serious buzz is real good. Very serious buzz.... What ARE "they" saying about Arias?

:laugh:

OnBaseMachine
07-16-2010, 03:13 PM
Brandon (WV): How good of a prospect is Junior Arias? He's tearing aprt the AZL league.

Ben Badler: Good athlete, moves around well and has good power for his size, though he could use a little more patience at the plate. Not sure he stays at shortstop but I've heard good things about him out of the Arizona League, including a blast he hit off Michael Ynoa.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1279300010

dougdirt
07-16-2010, 03:19 PM
Brandon (WV): How good of a prospect is Junior Arias? He's tearing aprt the AZL league.

Ben Badler: Good athlete, moves around well and has good power for his size, though he could use a little more patience at the plate. Not sure he stays at shortstop but I've heard good things about him out of the Arizona League, including a blast he hit off Michael Ynoa.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1279300010

I wish just once I could get a question answered instead of someone like this:

Devin (Cincinatti): Do you think Devin Mesoraco starts next season as Cincy's starting catcher? After strugiling for 2 years, hes finally putting together an unbelievable season.

Ben Badler: I think that's probably a little aggressive. Triple-A, most likely

Cincinatti? Really?

I asked about Billy Hamilton and Ismael Guillon today. Those have to be better questions to answer, right? Maybe if I start asking as Santa Clause or the Easter Bunny I can get something addressed....

OnBaseMachine
07-16-2010, 03:21 PM
I asked about Billy Hamilton and Ismael Guillon today. Those have to be better questions to answer, right? Maybe if I start asking as Santa Clause or the Easter Bunny I can get something addressed....

I sent in four questions: One about Junior Arias that he already answered, one on Mesoraco, one on Guillon, and finally, I asked him if he was hearing the Reds connected to any Latin prospects. Hopefully he answers one of our questions about Guillon as I'm really interested in what he has to say.

lollipopcurve
07-16-2010, 03:26 PM
I have a feeling that these chats are occasionally more educational for the BA dude than for some of the questioners...