PDA

View Full Version : The Ying and Yan of Stubbs and Hannigan



Rojo
07-14-2010, 07:41 PM
Some ASB musings:

Ryan Hanigan and Drew Stubbs have about an equal amout of plate appearances: 500 for Hanigan, 527 for Stubbs. But that's were the similarities end.

Hanigan is a slow-footed catcher with little pop but a nifty .380 OBA.

Stubbs is sitting on a pretty awful .310 OBA but is averaging 24 homers and 34 steals per 162 game season.

So who wins, nine Ryans or nine Drews?

We all know that "outs-are-precious" argument for Hanigan. But in a 162 game season, Stubbs is averaging 94 runs and 77 RBI while Hanigan is averaging a paltry 45 runs and 41 RBI.

kaldaniels
07-14-2010, 07:44 PM
Give me 9 Stubbs.

camisadelgolf
07-14-2010, 07:49 PM
In this matchup, will there be a DH? I ask because that might be the deciding factor.

nate
07-14-2010, 08:03 PM
This is a really interesting question. Both play difficult defensive positions, both have an offensive strength and weakness, both have an intriguing amount of playing time that makes one want to see more.

I'd kind of have to give the edge to Stubbs and the only reason is age.

kaldaniels
07-14-2010, 08:10 PM
This is a really interesting question. Both play difficult defensive positions, both have an offensive strength and weakness, both have an intriguing amount of playing time that makes one want to see more.

I'd kind of have to give the edge to Stubbs and the only reason is age.

A stat guy as yoursef, what consideration do you give to the fact that Hanigan typically is your 8 hole batter. I just can't shake the fact that I don't want him up at the dish in a high stress at bat. His 2 K's the other day in Wood's game really got me down on him (In that his stats are decieving...don't get me wrong I like him on the 25 man)

Mario-Rijo
07-14-2010, 08:14 PM
A stat guy as yoursef, what consideration do you give to the fact that Hanigan typically is your 8 hole batter. I just can't shake the fact that I don't want him up at the dish in a high stress at bat. His 2 K's the other day in Wood's game really got me down on him (In that his stats are decieving...don't get me wrong I like him on the 25 man)

Against Roy Halladay, wow tough to please or what? Hanny is a solid player in a tight situation, good eye, great contact guy who understands the game and what he must do in each and every circumstance.

nate
07-14-2010, 08:59 PM
A stat guy as yoursef, what consideration do you give to the fact that Hanigan typically is your 8 hole batter.

I consider that having nothing to do with him and entirely due to his manager.


I just can't shake the fact that I don't want him up at the dish in a high stress at bat.

I can't really say because be barely has enough career PAs to evaluate his offensive game let alone break it down into situational splits.


His 2 K's the other day in Wood's game really got me down on him (In that his stats are decieving...don't get me wrong I like him on the 25 man)

I would have a hard time ranking two poor PAs against one of the best pitchers in baseball in his first game back after being out for a couple-few weeks over his career numbers.

I think he's a very disciplined hitter who gets on base a lot and seems to be a decent receiver behind the plate.

kaldaniels
07-14-2010, 09:01 PM
His job was basically make contact. He had 2 at bats. Even against Halladay that gets a thumbs down from me.

kaldaniels
07-14-2010, 09:02 PM
Would Hanigan have the same batting numbers if he batted leadoff Nate, in your opinion.

nate
07-14-2010, 10:10 PM
Would Hanigan have the same batting numbers if he batted leadoff Nate, in your opinion.

I think it's likely he could put up a 12-ish% BB/rate no matter where he hits.

Even hitting "leadoff Nate!"

:cool:

nate
07-14-2010, 10:10 PM
His job was basically make contact. He had 2 at bats. Even against Halladay that gets a thumbs down from me.

It's 2 ABs.

He certainly wasn't alone in "making donuts" that day.

kaldaniels
07-14-2010, 10:29 PM
So thats how its gonna be Nate? I ask if you think Hanigan would put up the same batting numbers if he hit leadoff, and your answer is he would have the same BB/rate. Sounds like a dodge to me if I didn't know better. :cool:

In all seriousness, lets talk about BA,OBP,SLG. Do you think Hanigan would put up the same numbers he does now, should he be moved to leadoff. Granted this is a mental exercise, but what do you say?

RedsMan3203
07-14-2010, 10:34 PM
Give me 9 Stubbs.

Power - Check
RBI's - Check
Speed - Check
Runs - Check

Plus he has alot of room for improvement, Where as IMO Hanny is the best we will ever see him.

WVRedsFan
07-14-2010, 10:35 PM
God forgive me for sounding like Dusty Baker here, but I like Drew's outfield speed and defense and his speed on the basepaths. I've always attributed his lack of a high average to no one hitting behind him and lack of patience, but that can be cured. You can't cure slow of foot and some people just have no "pop."

Rojo
07-14-2010, 10:44 PM
Or yin and yang.

nate
07-14-2010, 11:31 PM
So thats how its gonna be Nate? I ask if you think Hanigan would put up the same batting numbers if he hit leadoff, and your answer is he would have the same BB/rate. Sounds like a dodge to me if I didn't know better. :cool:

Neg.


In all seriousness, lets talk about BA,OBP,SLG. o you think Hanigan would put up the same numbers he does now, should he be moved to leadoff.

I think he's likely have an OBP-driven, league average-ish bat.


Granted this is a mental exercise, but what do you say?

I say, he's a good on-base guy who doesn't hit for power so it would be good if he hit in front of guys who do. There's more than one way to do that.

kaldaniels
07-14-2010, 11:50 PM
Neg.



I think he's likely have an OBP-driven, league average-ish bat.



I say, he's a good on-base guy who doesn't hit for power so it would be good if he hit in front of guys who do. There's more than one way to do that.

One last try before bed...Yes or No, do you think Hanigans career numbers would deviate should he suddenly bat leadoff every night. I promise I'm not gonna argue with what you say, but your wriggling on this one is baffling. No vague answers...just do you think we would see a drop in Hanigan's numbers or not?

Edit - And I just don't want my initial question to be lost in translation. Basically what I am asking is that if Ryan bats eighth for his next 500 at bats, would he put up the same line should he bat 1st for his next 500 at bats.

REDREAD
07-15-2010, 09:33 AM
Give me 9 Stubbs.. Power, speed, althetism. He's still raw but room to improve. Even though it doesn't happen as often as we like (outside the hot streak), Stubbs can change a game.

Hanigan is a good backup catcher, but in the real world, a lineup a 9 Hannigans isn't going to do much. Not to mention, the defense would be horrible.

nate
07-15-2010, 09:37 AM
One last try before bed...Yes or No, do you think Hanigans career numbers would deviate should he suddenly bat leadoff every night. I promise I'm not gonna argue with what you say, but your wriggling on this one is baffling. No vague answers...just do you think we would see a drop in Hanigan's numbers or not?

Edit - And I just don't want my initial question to be lost in translation. Basically what I am asking is that if Ryan bats eighth for his next 500 at bats, would he put up the same line should he bat 1st for his next 500 at bats.

I think he'd put up a better line than .225/.279/.335 in the leadoff spot. The numbers he'd put up would largely depend on his contact rate so even if his average decreases, say 10%, he'd still likely OBP in the .350 range.

However, BP seems to be doing well in the leadoff spot so leave him there and solve the 2-spot.

kaldaniels
07-15-2010, 10:10 AM
I think he'd put up a better line than .225/.279/.335 in the leadoff spot. The numbers he'd put up would largely depend on his contact rate so even if his average decreases, say 10%, he'd still likely OBP in the .350 range.

However, BP seems to be doing well in the leadoff spot so leave him there and solve the 2-spot.

Your hesitance to say his numbers would be the same speaks volumes.

nate
07-15-2010, 11:21 AM
Your hesitance to say his numbers would be the same speaks volumes.

Since I answered the question in our first exchange, is it possible for you to make your point so we can advance the discussion? The bare light bulb tone isn't contributing much to the quality and is, to be frank, borderline baiting.

I've made my point that I think he could produce similarly due to the skillset I think he has. This is all academic because we'll never see him in a leadoff spot for the amount of time it would take to deem the experiment a success or failure.

Note, I bet my idea of "similarly" and "amount of time" above are vastly different from yours.

kaldaniels
07-15-2010, 11:43 AM
Of course this is all academic Nate, the intialpost was asking if we preferred 9 Hanigans or 9 Stubbs. Since you were the third person to chime in, I figured you would be up for another academic question.

My point is that I think we'd see a dropoff in Hanigans numbers if he hit leadoff. But that's me. You know more about stats than me so I wanted to know how you viewed the issue. From your responses it seems you think Hanigan would produce the same, be it in the 1st or 8th spot...but unti your last post you never stated that. I disagree with that, but as you said we will never know.

Rojo
07-15-2010, 07:25 PM
Based on their career numbers so far, Stubbs will make 40-50 more outs than Hanigan per season. Stubbs will acquire about 40 more bases.

Hanigan will make an "extra" ten outs in double plays (16 to 6). But Stubbs -- even though he's a high-percentage stealer -- will even the score by making about that many outs on the basepaths (Hanigan NEVER steals).

I'm less interested in projections and such than I am the abstract merits of two polarized offensive games.

I go with Stubbs as well. So far he's managed to be about as good an offensive threat as one can be with a .315 OBP. Better even than Rob Deer!

Hanigan's runs and rbi totals, it should be noted, are partly lower because he missed a big part of the Red's two-month offensive explosion. But he looks like a Ken Oberkfell/Dave Magadan type -- someone who doesn't kill you with out-making but who's high OBP is fairly ineffective at putting runs across.

For you kids, Rob Deer, Ken Oberkfell and Dave Magadan were baseball players from the 1980's.

oregonred
07-20-2010, 12:44 AM
Nice run by Drew to get his seasonal BA above .250 and OPS above .750. Also approaching an impressive 50 RBI out of the 7-hole. Drew has been over 1.000 OPS for July. Huge considering the absence of Bruce, the injuries with Rolen and Joey being uncharecteristically quiet the last 6-7 games.

Also watching Drew flagging down Martin's ball in deep right center with seemingly effortless speed was a thing of beauty. He makes plays like that look routine.