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flyer85
07-31-2010, 01:00 PM
Jay has impressed me. He's a much better fielder than Ludwick and probably won't be much worse than him with the stick. Ludwick isn't exactly a model of consistency and seems to be hurt a lot this year.it would be similar to the Reds trading Gomes and installing Heisey in LF. Takes a pair to gamble because as a GM you'll be second guessed forever if it backfires

edabbs44
07-31-2010, 01:02 PM
it would be similar to the Reds trading Gomes and installing Heisey in LF. Takes a pair to gamble because as a GM you'll be second guessed forever if it backfires

Was thinking the same exact thing.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 01:03 PM
Ludwick for Westbrook = net talent loss for Cards.

Cedric
07-31-2010, 01:03 PM
He is as long has his .446 BABIP continues......

Again.. A bat is just part of the game. Ludwick isn't exactly Albert Pujols anyway.

OnBaseMachine
07-31-2010, 01:04 PM
it would be similar to the Reds trading Gomes and installing Heisey in LF. Takes a pair to gamble because as a GM you'll be second guessed forever if it backfires

Ludwick is a much better player than Gomes. Offensively and defensively. There's really no downside to replacing Gomes with Heisey, IMO. Gomes is a below average starting left fielder.

OnBaseMachine
07-31-2010, 01:05 PM
Ludwick for Westbrook = net talent loss for Cards.

I agree.

Cedric
07-31-2010, 01:06 PM
Ludwick is a much better player than Gomes. Offensively and defensively. There's really no downside to replacing Gomes with Heisey, IMO. Gomes is a below average starting left fielder.

Ludwick is basically a .800 OPS bat and a horrendous fielder. It's not really that far from Gomes.

Take away his MONSTER career year in 08 and the guy is just average.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 01:07 PM
Ludwick is a much better player than Gomes. Offensively and defensively. There's really no downside to replacing Gomes with Heisey, IMO. Gomes is a below average starting left fielder.

Ludwick's a legit MLB OF. He's getting old, but he's a starter.

flyer85
07-31-2010, 01:07 PM
Again.. A bat is just part of the game. Ludwick isn't exactly Albert Pujols anyway.
Ludwick has been hurt a lot but it is a gamble because they don't have a lot behind him and Jay is not an uber prospect, IMO the odds are it is nothing more than a hot month. I suspect the Cards will do something else, it just may not be today

OnBaseMachine
07-31-2010, 01:09 PM
Ludwick is basically a .800 OPS bat and a horrendous fielder. It's not really that far from Gomes.

Take away his MONSTER career year in 08 and the guy is just average.

Ryan Ludwick is an above average defender and has posted an OPS+ of 110, 150, 104, and 120 over the last four seasons. He's a much, much better all around player than Gomes. It's really not even close.

flyer85
07-31-2010, 01:09 PM
Ludwick is a much better player than Gomes. Offensively and defensively. There's really no downside to replacing Gomes with Heisey, IMO. Gomes is a below average starting left fielder.no doubt Ludwick is the better player but Gomes streak of luck with runners on has given him great counting stats have given him better numbers than Ludwick in 2010. Most GMs are playing not to lose and thus don't do anything that has a chance of backfiring and making them look bad.

edabbs44
07-31-2010, 01:11 PM
Ryan Ludwick is an above average defender and has posted an OPS+ of 110, 150, 104, and 120 over the last four seasons. He's a much, much better all around player than Gomes. It's really not even close.

Difference in offensive value is negligible. They've been the same thing cumulatively in 2009-10. Can't speak to Ludwick's defense.

PuffyPig
07-31-2010, 01:11 PM
Ludwick is basically a .800 OPS bat and a horrendous fielder. It's not really that far from Gomes.

Take away his MONSTER career year in 08 and the guy is just average.

Ludwick is an above average fielder IIRC. He plays a decent RF.

Whe healthy he's Gomes with decent fielding in RF. He even plays CF on occasion.

What I like about this from the Reds perspective is that it locks the Cards into a Holliday, Rasmus and Jay OF.

Rasmus is slumping badly and Jay with an .446 BABIP is over achieving badly.

Westbrook is a huge upgrade over Suppan (who isn't) but I can't beleive it cost them Ludwick.

flyer85
07-31-2010, 01:12 PM
Bosox offering Delcarmen and want a reliever back according to Stark. Send them Coco :D

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 01:12 PM
no doubt Ludwick is the better player but Gomes streak of luck with runners on has given him great counting stats have given him better numbers than Ludwick in 2010. Most GMs are playing not to lose and thus don't do anything that has a chance of backfiring and making them look bad.

I'd say picking up a guy like Westbrook is exactly the kind of trade you're describing. Conservative, incremental waste of time.

The Cards are still the favorites to win the division, but this deal hasn't helped them a bit.

mth123
07-31-2010, 01:14 PM
Ludwick is a much better player than Gomes. Offensively and defensively. There's really no downside to replacing Gomes with Heisey, IMO. Gomes is a below average starting left fielder.

I've been one of Gomes biggest supporters and have feared that a bigger role for Heisey might expose him and lower his value, but since there are no big fish left out there that would require Heisey in a deal, I'm ready to give Heisey a try as a three day a week LF and a couple days in the other spots. Gomes would still play against LHP with Bruce sitting and Heisey shifting to RF and Stubbs would sit once in a while as well.

Cedric
07-31-2010, 01:14 PM
I'd say picking up a guy like Westbrook is exactly the kind of trade you're describing. Conservative, incremental waste of time.

If only you realize how truly bad Suppan or Hawksworth are. I see an upgrade.

Westbrook is an ugly pig. Those two are dead pigs.

Tom Servo
07-31-2010, 01:14 PM
#bluejays want legit major leaguers for bautista. like jonathan sanchez from #sfgiants. otherwise bautista stays

Interested in Homer Bailey, Jays? :D

OnBaseMachine
07-31-2010, 01:16 PM
This has been a very active trade deadline, yet there's no talk of the Reds doing anything. Very disappointing. Maybe they'll make a last minute move but it's shaping up to be a disappointing day. The current team has battled to get to 10 games above .500 and within a 1/2 game at the deadline despite having some holes, now it's time for the front office to do their job and patch up some of those holes.

Cedric
07-31-2010, 01:19 PM
This has been a very active trade deadline, yet there's no talk of the Reds doing anything. Very disappointing. Maybe they'll make a last minute move but it's shaping up to be a disappointing day. The current team has battled to get to 10 games above .500 and within a 1/2 game at the deadline despite having some holes, now it's time for the front office to do their job and patch up some of those holes.

I still don't see anyone that could patch up a hole. I can't come up with one name that is reasonable.

Downs from Toronto is just way too steep a price according to rumors.

OnBaseMachine
07-31-2010, 01:20 PM
Luke Scott and Brandon League make a ton of sense for the Reds, IMO. Jose Bautista and Scott Downs too, if they can be had at a reasonable deal.

PuffyPig
07-31-2010, 01:23 PM
Lets get Dunn for LF, that would plug a hole for sure.....

Trade them Bailey.......

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 01:23 PM
I think spending on the pen would be a stupid mistake. It's the one area they can definitively improve in-house. They need a big Rolen-esque bat and a starter--they have nothing like that on their farm.

Cedric
07-31-2010, 01:23 PM
Luke Scott and Brandon League make a ton of sense for the Reds, IMO. Jose Bautista and Scott Downs too, if they can be had at a reasonable deal.

I haven't heard that Baltimore wants to move Scott.

Toronto asked for Sanchez from San Fran for Bautista.. That means we aren't getting him.
They also are asking the moon for Downs.

I like the idea but they don't seem reasonable.

flyer85
07-31-2010, 01:23 PM
I'd say picking up a guy like Westbrook is exactly the kind of trade you're describing. Conservative, incremental waste of time.

The Cards are still the favorites to win the division, but this deal hasn't helped them a bit.this trade has the possibility of immediate downside, most of the other deals by a contender just don't have that risk.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 01:24 PM
this trade has the possibility of immediate downside, most of the other deals by a contender just don't have that risk.

It has a huge downside and a hair-thin upside. That's not risk, that's stupidity.

HokieRed
07-31-2010, 01:25 PM
Once around the league effect might help Westbrook just enough.

flyer85
07-31-2010, 01:26 PM
It has a huge downside and a hair-thin upside. which is why I speculated that they will do something else (just maybe not today)

Marc D
07-31-2010, 01:28 PM
Is anyone really going to be shocked as Jay hits like a triple crown threat and Westbrook turns in a half season of Cy Young performance?

I won't be. It's the Cardinals we are talking about here after all.

mth123
07-31-2010, 01:29 PM
Luke Scott and Brandon League make a ton of sense for the Reds, IMO. Jose Bautista and Scott Downs too, if they can be had at a reasonable deal.

Kelly Johnson at the top of the order against RHP. He can play mostly LF with some time at 2B and maybe 3B. He's better than Dickerson and Nix and its probably time to make Gomes a platoon guy. Heisey in a platoon with Bruce and Gomes in a platoon with Johnson might add a lot of production to the OF. If they could find another roster spot a modified platoon with Dickerson and Stubbs in CF (Stubbs would still play against some RHP) would help too. The Reds offensive problems are mostly in the OF.

Downs is probably the best name out there to help the pitching staff. The team could shorten the game a bit to offset an iffy rotation. The Rotation hasn't been awful, but if they can't get TOR help, having the starters go through the order one less time each day might give them a bump.

mth123
07-31-2010, 01:30 PM
Once around the league effect might help Westbrook just enough.

And Dave Duncan too.

HotCorner
07-31-2010, 01:39 PM
ManRam in LF?


The Dodgers asked the White Sox for Dayan Viciedo in exchange for Ramirez, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com on Twitter. The Manny market is heating up, according to Yahoo's Tim Brown on Twitter. The Rays, White Sox and a mystery team are all involved. The Dodgers are considering dealing Manny, according to Brown, who explains that the Dodgers are not shopping him. The left fielder is said to be open to a trade.

I know his defense is putrid but the guy can flat out rake. Dare to dream ...

Votto/ManRam/Rolen

top6
07-31-2010, 01:43 PM
ManRam in LF?



I know his defense is putrid but the guy can flat out rake. Dare to dream ...

Votto/ManRam/Rolen

If Cincinnati got TO and Manny in the same week.... I don't really know how to finish that joke but it would be one insane week.

TheNext44
07-31-2010, 01:46 PM
ManRam in LF?



I know his defense is putrid but the guy can flat out rake. Dare to dream ...

Votto/ManRam/Rolen

Harang, Maloney and Gomes for Manny.

Probably some money changes hands too.

BCubb2003
07-31-2010, 01:50 PM
Manny's only really good for about a half season anyway, before he flakes out and wants to be somewhere else.

pahster
07-31-2010, 01:58 PM
Manny's only really good for about a half season anyway, before he flakes out and wants to be somewhere else.

Flakey Manny is still incredibly productive. I'll take his 150 or higher OPS+ any day.

BoydsOfSummer
07-31-2010, 02:00 PM
Yanks pick up Berkman to hit 9th for them and add Kearns just for poops and giggles. Ho-hum...another day at the olffice. Makes me ill.

Brutus
07-31-2010, 02:03 PM
I haven't heard that Baltimore wants to move Scott.



I read somewhere they're listening on him, though not actively shopping. Ed Price just speculated the Rays are in talks with Baltimore and it might be for him and/or Will Ohman.

Cedric
07-31-2010, 02:05 PM
If the Rays could convince Dunn to DH I think they would have the best team in the league.

They might anyway though.

OnBaseMachine
07-31-2010, 02:16 PM
The Mariners reportedly have called up a reliever which could mean David Aardsma or Brandon League have been traded. Reds have been linked to both. We'll see.

RedLegSuperStar
07-31-2010, 02:19 PM
The Mariners reportedly have called up a reliever which could mean David Aardsma or Brandon League have been traded. Reds have been linked to both. We'll see.

League to the Rays?

osuceltic
07-31-2010, 02:43 PM
If the Reds don't get something done, they not only lose the on-field trade deadline battle with the Cardinals, they lose the emotional battle as well. The Cards come away energized and feeling like they receive a lift. The Reds come away a little deflated. I'll be EXTREMELY disappointed if they do nothing. We've seen a number of players change teams who would have helped the Reds -- and in most cases, the return wasn't that impressive.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 02:46 PM
There's really so little left (that is supposedly being moved) that I'm beginning to think doing nothing might be best. So little impact remaining, in my opinion.

HokieRed
07-31-2010, 02:47 PM
There's really so little left (that is supposedly being moved) that I'm beginning to think doing nothing might be best. So little impact remaining, in my opinion.


Might mean Walt's focused on the one player who solves the double dilemma: helping now without compromising the future.

oregonred
07-31-2010, 02:49 PM
If the Reds don't get something done, they not only lose the on-field trade deadline battle with the Cardinals, they lose the emotional battle as well. The Cards come away energized and feeling like they receive a lift. The Reds come away a little deflated. I'll be EXTREMELY disappointed if they do nothing. We've seen a number of players change teams who would have helped the Reds -- and in most cases, the return wasn't that impressive.

Maybe, although Westbrook isn't a game changer and maybe a minus with the loss of Ludwick's bat. The Phils and Pads have made some nice moves. The Giants, Braves, Reds, Mets and Rockies have all stood pat so it's not like all the NL kids are doing it...

I think the immediate emergence of Travis Wood changed the Reds plans.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 02:54 PM
Might mean Walt's focused on the one player who solves the double dilemma: helping now without compromising the future.

Could be. The one downside to doing nothing for Walt is fan backlash. If they do nothing then proceed to go 25-34 the rest of the way, season ticket holders will certainly remember that.

OnBaseMachine
07-31-2010, 02:56 PM
Jayson Stark:

We could have a fun hour coming up. One club says volume of calls is "insane" right now. I've had 3 "gotta gos" in last 20 minutes! #trades

http://twitter.com/jaysonst

Sabo Fan
07-31-2010, 03:05 PM
Jayson Stark:

We could have a fun hour coming up. One club says volume of calls is "insane" right now. I've had 3 "gotta gos" in last 20 minutes! #trades

http://twitter.com/jaysonst

Hopefully Walt is on the phone. Seems like the Dbacks are ripe for the picking. I'd be all about Kelly Johnson for a backup/platoon role and I'd love to see a reliever added as well, someone who can miss bats. Likely the best bet for any move at this point is whoever gets through waivers in the coming days, I fully expect them to dumpster dive a bit.

reds44
07-31-2010, 03:06 PM
jonmorosi #Reds source: "Quiet." #TRADES

OnBaseMachine
07-31-2010, 03:06 PM
From Jon Morosi:

#Reds source: "Quiet." #TRADES

http://twitter.com/jonmorosi

It looks like Walt and the FO are happy with the current team even though they have a hole in left field and at SS and are in need of another arm.

OnBaseMachine
07-31-2010, 03:27 PM
From Buster Olney:

Heard this: The Yankees are closing in on deal for Kerry Wood.

Heard this: The Indians would eat a lot of the money owed to Kerry Wood if the Yankees and Cleveland finish this deal.

http://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN

Tom Servo
07-31-2010, 03:28 PM
The Orioles are still working the phone lines with teams, discussing possible deals involving Will Ohman and Ty Wigginton, according to the Baltimore Sun's Dan Connolly.


I could see Walt being in on them, especially after expressing interest in Wiggy last winter.

redsmetz
07-31-2010, 03:33 PM
From Jon Morosi:

#Reds source: "Quiet." #TRADES

http://twitter.com/jonmorosi

It looks like Walt and the FO are happy with the current team even though they have a hole in left field and at SS and are in need of another arm.

You know, it doesn't really mean they're happy with the team completely, but rather that nothing came up at the price we want, which doesn't imply we're necessarily being cheap, but rather the price may be too steep and undesirable. I'm completely against making a move just to make a move.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 03:34 PM
I'm completely against making a move just to make a move.

I am too, but that's a pretty abstract statement. It's beyond clear this team needs help. And it's the GM's job to improve the team. If Walt doesn't do that, then I think it's only fair to hold him accountable.

BCubb2003
07-31-2010, 03:37 PM
It's always "I can't believe he's not making any moves" before it's "I can't believe that's all we're getting for what we're giving up" ...

reds44
07-31-2010, 03:38 PM
Jeremy Hermida?


HackswithHaggs NESN reporting Jeremy Hermida has been DFA'd. Not sure that's quite correct in terminology, but not shocking if he's gone. Kalish on the way

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 03:38 PM
It's always "I can't believe he's not making any moves" before it's "I can't believr that's all we're getting for we're giving up" ...

I actually think those are two different camps you're describing above. And quite succinctly. I'd say I fall in the first one.

Mario-Rijo
07-31-2010, 03:40 PM
Jeremy Hermida?

They need to jump on that.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 03:41 PM
They need to jump on that.

Provided they don't fall asleep from boredom before they do so.

blumj
07-31-2010, 03:45 PM
They need to jump on that.

No, they don't. Trust me. Besides, he may just be getting optioned to AAA, they always report it as DFA when someone has to clear optional assignment waivers, so I'm not sure.

alloverjr
07-31-2010, 03:45 PM
You know, it doesn't really mean they're happy with the team completely, but rather that nothing came up at the price we want, which doesn't imply we're necessarily being cheap, but rather the price may be too steep and undesirable. I'm completely against making a move just to make a move.

For what most teams are getting in return for players, I don't buy the notion that the price was too high (unless of course your prospect ceiling ends at Justin Lehr). Doesn't mean he's not trying but this team needs improvement unless the goal is 2011.

pahster
07-31-2010, 03:49 PM
They need to jump on that.

His OPS+ this year is 58 and 97 for his career. His career OPS+ is driven entirely by his 2007 season.

OnBaseMachine
07-31-2010, 03:49 PM
From John Fay:

Deadline will almost certainly pass without a #Reds trade. "Walt's on the field giving Bobby Cox a gift, so unless he and Bobby do a deal."

http://twitter.com/johnfayman

Disappointing.

blumj
07-31-2010, 03:50 PM
BTW, in case it hasn't been mentioned, Scott Downs probably isn't going anywhere, since he was just pitching for the Blue Jays a minute ago.

reds44
07-31-2010, 03:50 PM
Looks like we're gonna roll with what we got, boys.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 03:51 PM
Kind of what I thought: it was Lee or bust.

2011, here we come!

forfreelin04
07-31-2010, 03:51 PM
From John Fay:

Deadline will almost certainly pass without a #Reds trade. "Walt's on the field giving Bobby Cox a gift, so unless he and Bobby do a deal."

http://twitter.com/johnfayman

Disappointing.

Wasn't pitching coco in the tenth enough of a present?

Brutus
07-31-2010, 03:51 PM
No, they don't. Trust me. Besides, he may just be getting optioned to AAA, they always report it as DFA when someone has to clear optional assignment waivers, so I'm not sure.

Two separate things.

DFA means they have 10 days to do something with him: trade him, release him or assign him (which requires passing through waivers first).

Option waivers is just that: passing him through waivers before they can option someone out of options.

They're not the same, as DFA is technically more broad.

BCubb2003
07-31-2010, 03:51 PM
We all know Walt's not averse to doing big deals, trading away Griffey and Dunn, trading for Rolen, signing Chapman. There's no reason to think he suddenly got cold feet. Maybe the deal just isn't there.

Tommyjohn25
07-31-2010, 03:52 PM
Okay I'm alot more disappointed tha I thought I'd be. Seems this club has no trouble selling but when it comes to buying all is "quiet". I don't like it.

Marc D
07-31-2010, 03:52 PM
MLBTR is down so I don't have a link but there was a blurb about a 3 way trade involving SF, Arizona and Toronto. Now at Fangraphs someone is quoting Hank Schulman as saying "J Sanchez seen hugging Giants in the dugout? Say it aint so"

If the Giants make a move that's every team in the NL playoff picture except the Reds doing something.

OnBaseMachine
07-31-2010, 03:52 PM
Looks like the Giants may have pulled off a big deal. Jonathan Sanchez was seen hugging his teammates in the dugout. Jose Bautista or Corey Hart?

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 03:52 PM
Wasn't pitching coco in the tenth enough of a present?

Lol.

But yeah, since no reinforcements, it's time to do some massive deck-chair shifting. That is, if the organization doesn't want to look like goats when they're begging for season-ticket re-ups.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 03:54 PM
If the Giants make a move that's every team in the NL playoff picture except the Reds doing something.

With no big reinforcements this team really isn't in the playoff picture anymore.

LoganBuck
07-31-2010, 03:54 PM
If they don't pull off a trade I am going to be disappointed. This team has holes and it isn't doing anything to fix them. I know Walt knows what he is doing, but come on, buy some faith for your fanbase.

thatcoolguy_22
07-31-2010, 03:54 PM
WJ has 6 minutes to make today a happy 27th bday for me...

HotCorner
07-31-2010, 03:55 PM
Looks like the Giants may have pulled off a big deal. Jonathan Sanchez was seen hugging his teammates in the dugout. Jose Bautista or Corey Hart?

Adam Dunn?

reds44
07-31-2010, 03:55 PM
I'm gonna guess Corey Hart. Him and the Giants were linked earlier in the day.

thatcoolguy_22
07-31-2010, 03:56 PM
Players available that could still help

Ted Lilly
Kelly Johnson
Downs, Gregg, or Frasor


Bring help!

Brutus
07-31-2010, 03:56 PM
Okay I'm alot more disappointed tha I thought I'd be. Seems this club has no trouble selling but when it comes to buying all is "quiet". I don't like it.

That was a terrible message to send if it came from someone in the organization. Just a terrible thing to say. Talk about giving the fans a blow.

If a trade wasn't likely, they could say something to the affect, "Reds are trying hard, but nothing materializing." But to say "quiet" is not the kind of message they should be sending.

reds44
07-31-2010, 03:57 PM
Ken_Rosenthal #Dodgers get Dotel. For Lamb and McDonald. #Pirates #MLB

Tommyjohn25
07-31-2010, 03:58 PM
That was a terrible message to send if it came from someone in the organization. Just a terrible thing to say. Talk about giving the fans a blow.

If a trade wasn't likely, they could say something to the affect, "Reds are trying hard, but nothing materializing." But to say "quiet" is not the kind of message they should be sending.

Exactly. Not a great method to keep fans in the seats.

BCubb2003
07-31-2010, 03:58 PM
The Reds are on the clock. The Reds pass.

blumj
07-31-2010, 04:00 PM
Two separate things.

DFA means they have 10 days to do something with him: trade him, release him or assign him (which requires passing through waivers first).

Option waivers is just that: passing him through waivers before they can option someone out of options.

They're not the same, as DFA is technically more broad.
Hermida's not out of options, though. The same thing happened when the Red Sox optioned Scott Atchison earlier this season, it was reported as a DFA even though it wasn't. I don't know why.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 04:00 PM
Exactly. Not a great method to keep fans in the seats.

It's something that only diehards like us pay attention to though. What's worse though is the message it sends to the team.

If the Reds get swept this weekend, you got to wonder if there will be some sitdowns between Dusty and Walt for reconfiguring the 25 man, as well as the roles for particular players.

Team won't be much better if at all. But could help in seeing what we have for next year.

LoganBuck
07-31-2010, 04:00 PM
Deadline has passed.

BoydsOfSummer
07-31-2010, 04:00 PM
Like Reds44 said, "Looks like we'll roll with what we got, boys". Let's roll then, boys!

Benihana
07-31-2010, 04:01 PM
It's something that only diehards like us pay attention to though. What's worse though is the message it sends to the team.

If the Reds get swept this weekend, you got to wonder if there will be some sitdowns between Dusty and Walt for reconfiguring the 25 man, as well as the roles for particular players.

When the Reds don't get swept this weekend, what will be your next doomsday prognostication?

alloverjr
07-31-2010, 04:01 PM
If the Reds get swept this weekend, you got to wonder if there will be some sitdowns between Dusty and Walt for reconfiguring the 25 man, as well as the roles for particular players.

this should have already happened

RedLegSuperStar
07-31-2010, 04:01 PM
Players available that could still help

Ted Lilly
Kelly Johnson
Downs, Gregg, or Frasor


Bring help!

Lilly got dealt

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 04:01 PM
this should have already happened

I agree.

Ron Madden
07-31-2010, 04:02 PM
I'm glad Walt didn't do anything stupid just for the sake of making a move.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 04:02 PM
When the Reds don't get swept this weekend, what will be your next doomsday prognostication?

They might win today's game. I hardly think it's sure thing they're going to lose today. But tomorrow looks awfully dicey.

Pretending like the current incarnation of the team isn't running on fumes is just kind of silly.

RedLegSuperStar
07-31-2010, 04:03 PM
It's like this team sticks daggers in our hearts and kisses playoff hopes goodbye

Marc D
07-31-2010, 04:04 PM
It's something that only diehards like us pay attention to though. What's worse though is the message it sends to the team.

If the Reds get swept this weekend, you got to wonder if there will be some sitdowns between Dusty and Walt for reconfiguring the 25 man, as well as the roles for particular players.


I'll go a step farther and ask why you aren't selling if your doing a defacto white flag raise on 2010? Maybe the thought is stand pat, see if they tank (more likely now) and move the high priced guys in August?

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 04:05 PM
Maybe the thought is stand pat, see if they tank (more likely now) and move the high priced guys in August?

A possibility. But the market for high-priced guys is awfully slender.

blumj
07-31-2010, 04:07 PM
Will Ohman's apparently going somewhere.

Tom Servo
07-31-2010, 04:07 PM
well this is pretty disapointing

Benihana
07-31-2010, 04:09 PM
They might win today's game. I hardly think it's sure thing they're going to lose today. But tomorrow looks awfully dicey.

Because the Reds are facing a pitcher who they torched for 8 runs in 1.2 IP last time they faced him? Yep, looks awfully dicey!


Pretending like the current incarnation of the team isn't running on fumes is just kind of silly.

Disagree. Strongly.

Pretending like you don't say this every time the Reds lose a game is kind of silly. Play Heisey everyday, whether it's platooning with Gomes, Bruce, or whoever. Platoon Dickerson and Stubbs. Bring back a healthy Homer Bailey or Aaron Harang to the rotation, and the Reds will be in it down to the wire- that is a pretty strong bet.

Do I wish we would have gotten an ace or some other kind of help? Sure. But that doesn't mean this team is about to fall apart. I was at the game last night, and they sure didn't look like a team running on fumes.

dougdirt
07-31-2010, 04:09 PM
well this is pretty disapointing

Who did you expect them to get? The market is pretty weak. The bullpen reinforcements are already planned and in Louisville right now (Isringhausen/Springer/Chapman). The starting rotation is something where there wasn't a big upgrade option available beyond Cliff Lee and the Reds tried there. Oswalt wasn't getting traded in the division.

thatcoolguy_22
07-31-2010, 04:09 PM
Lilly got dealt

Well don't I feel sheepish... Baa

Marc D
07-31-2010, 04:10 PM
All kinds of chatter about the Giants now. They've done something.

Reds vs NL playoff contenders ytd:
vs Philly 2-5, 0 remaining
vs St Louis 5-7, 6 games remain
vs LAD 3-3, 3 games left in LA
vs SF 2-2, 3games left in SF

Thats a total record of 12-17. Each of those teams made moves.

Not looking good.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 04:11 PM
they sure didn't look like a team on the verge of collapse.

They sure did in the 10th. Lot of structural problems: Cordero's not going to be moved from his role, Heisey's not going to get most of the playing time.

Mentioning Bailey as any kind of response to anything is all the indication one needs to know of how desperate the Reds' straits are.

dougdirt
07-31-2010, 04:12 PM
All kinds of chatter about the Giants now. They've done something.

Reds vs NL playoff contenders ytd:
vs Philly 2-5, 0 remaining
vs St Louis 5-7, 6 games remain
vs LAD 3-3, 3 games left in LA
vs SF 2-2, 3games left in SF

Thats a total record of 12-17. Each of those teams made moves.

Not looking good.

You are talking about 4, 6 and 7 games outside of the Cardinals. Those records literally mean nothing.

blumj
07-31-2010, 04:13 PM
The Braves apparently got Rick Ankiel and Kyle Farnsworth, and the Red Sox traded Ramon Ramirez(not the former Red, he's still in Pawtucket) to the Giants.

TheNext44
07-31-2010, 04:14 PM
While I think everyone agrees the Reds could be improved, I think it is beyond absurd tho think that without a move the Reds are out of contention.

If the Cardinals had made a move that clearly improved them, then maybe. But both teams are about where they were yesterday talent wise.

Ghosts of 1990
07-31-2010, 04:14 PM
I love how now because Heisey has looked good in spells, everyone considers him the answer. He's a servicable young guy. No doubting it. But what evidence do we have that this guy playing every day would do any better then Gomes or Stubbs?

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 04:14 PM
While I think everyone agrees the Reds could be improved, I think it is beyond absurd tho think that without a move the Reds are out of contention.

If the Cardinals had made a move that clearly improved them, then maybe. But both teams are about where they were yesterday talent wise.

The Reds are out of contention.

RedsManRick
07-31-2010, 04:15 PM
I'm not really upset. As much as I want this team to better, I just didn't see a whole lot out there short of maybe a bullpen arm or two, that would make this team better. If this team is going to be better, it's going to come from our existing players performing better or Dusty making better use of the players he has.

mth123
07-31-2010, 04:16 PM
Rick Ankiel and Kyle Farnsworth to the Braves for Gregor Blanco and others.

pahster
07-31-2010, 04:17 PM
I love how now because Heisey has looked good in spells, everyone considers him the answer. He's a servicable young guy. No doubting it. But what evidence do we have that this guy playing every day would do any better then Gomes or Stubbs?

He's not the answer, he's just likely to outplay Gomes. That's not really saying much.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 04:17 PM
The BABIP monster is getting ready to consume Arroyo.

Tom Servo
07-31-2010, 04:18 PM
I have that sinking feeling that the Gomes/Stubbs/Bruce outfield will be the death of us. I like all three of them but they're all incredibly streaky and they've all been brutal heading into what is now the home stretch.

BoydsOfSummer
07-31-2010, 04:18 PM
If this team is going to be better, it's going to come from our existing players performing better or Dusty making better use of the players he has.

I have no confidence in him doing that.

Marc D
07-31-2010, 04:19 PM
You are talking about 4, 6 and 7 games outside of the Cardinals. Those records literally mean nothing.


No, actually they "literally" mean the Reds lose more than they win in games against the top NL teams.

dougdirt
07-31-2010, 04:21 PM
No, actually they "literally" mean the Reds lose more than they win in games against the top NL teams.

No. It means in small sample sizes without setting rotations or even every day line ups in some of those games that the Reds have lost against those teams. It doesn't mean they will lose in the playoffs to those teams or even in August/September against those teams.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 04:24 PM
I have no confidence in him doing that.

I don't either. But what's scarier is that even if he did, I doubt it makes nearly enough of a difference.

This team is not only deployed poorly, but they're lacking a bunch of talent.

MikeS21
07-31-2010, 04:25 PM
I'm not really upset. As much as I want this team to better, I just didn't see a whole lot out there short of maybe a bullpen arm or two, that would make this team better. If this team is going to be better, it's going to come from our existing players performing better or Dusty making better use of the players he has.
:thumbup:

Marc D
07-31-2010, 04:27 PM
No. It means in small sample sizes without setting rotations or even every day line ups in some of those games that the Reds have lost against those teams. It doesn't mean they will lose in the playoffs to those teams or even in August/September against those teams.


Those teams were using their top 3 starters and every day lineup every time?

I'll agree its a small sample but so are playoff series. Which of those teams, including Atlanta who the Reds haven't beaten yet, can you honestly say would be an underdog to the Reds if everyone got to reset their rotations and lineups?

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 04:28 PM
Those teams were using their top 3 starters and every day lineup every time?

I'll agree its a small sample but so are playoff series. Which of those teams, including Atlanta who the Reds haven't beaten yet, can you honestly say would be an underdog to the Reds if everyone got to reset their rotations and lineups?

Do you even have to ask?

kaldaniels
07-31-2010, 04:28 PM
The Reds are out of contention.

I'm a gambling man and if you ask me, odds are against the Reds making the playoffs as of this moment. But to say they are out of contention is one of the most asinine things I've read all year.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 04:29 PM
I'm a gambling man and if you ask me, odds are against the Reds making the playoffs as of this moment. But to say they are out of contention is one of the most asinine things I've read all year.

Then let me say it again: they are out of contention.

kaldaniels
07-31-2010, 04:40 PM
FCB, you seem to stake your entire reputation on proclaiming that the Reds will not win the division/make the playoffs...again, odds are with you there. Do you care to step outside your safety zone and project the Reds final number of wins this year? No range, just one number.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 04:40 PM
FCB, you seem to stake your entire reputation on proclaiming that the Reds will not win the division/make the playoffs...again, odds are with you there. Do you care to step outside your safety zone and project the Reds final number of wins this year? No range, just one number.

Sure. 82.

dougdirt
07-31-2010, 04:41 PM
Those teams were using their top 3 starters and every day lineup every time?

I'll agree its a small sample but so are playoff series. Which of those teams, including Atlanta who the Reds haven't beaten yet, can you honestly say would be an underdog to the Reds if everyone got to reset their rotations and lineups?

They weren't either, but that is the point. We don't know who is going to win in a playoff series, especially by basing it off of head to head regular season match ups of 4-7 games spread through an entire season.

I don't care about being an 'underdog'. The Reds aren't worse by much than these other teams. Which means that 1 bad game by the other teams starter or one real good on by one of our guys and things switch. This isn't the 2004 Reds were are trying to compare to playoff teams. This is a good team.

kaldaniels
07-31-2010, 04:42 PM
Sure. 82.

Fair enough. We'll see.

Cedric
07-31-2010, 04:43 PM
They weren't either, but that is the point. We don't know who is going to win in a playoff series, especially by basing it off of head to head regular season match ups of 4-7 games spread through an entire season.

I don't care about being an 'underdog'. The Reds aren't worse by much than these other teams. Which means that 1 bad game by the other teams starter or one real good on by one of our guys and things switch. This isn't the 2004 Reds were are trying to compare to playoff teams. This is a good team.

The Reds are just a huge question mark everywhere in the rotation. They are markedly behind most teams.

REDblooded
07-31-2010, 04:46 PM
Without landing one no-brainer to help the team, the Reds were better off standing pat... Boring? Yes... Disappointing? A bit... The wrong thing to do? Not at all...

No team in the race appears to have as much organizational depth, especially of the major league ready variety as the Reds... When rosters expand, this team should get a huge shot in the arm. I can't say that about the Cards, Giants, Dodgers, Phillies at this point... Braves have some decent talent.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 04:49 PM
Without landing one no-brainer to help the team, the Reds were better off standing pat... Boring? Yes... Disappointing? A bit... The wrong thing to do? Not at all...

No team in the race appears to have as much organizational depth, especially of the major league ready variety as the Reds... When rosters expand, this team should get a huge shot in the arm. I can't say that about the Cards, Giants, Dodgers, Phillies at this point... Braves have some decent talent.

They might get a shot in the arm in September but you realize they have to play the month of August too , right?

mth123
07-31-2010, 04:49 PM
Ultimately, I think Aaron Harang's injury sunk this team. The Reds had the players to spare to match just about any deal, but without Harang being healthy enough to pawn off his salary to somebody, there just wasn't room in the budget to make an addition.

If the team had added a top starter, the others falling in behind him would look pretty good. Now they just seem like a monster with his head cut-off.

A lot of career years happening in 2010. This was the time to make a splash IMO.

Brutus
07-31-2010, 04:49 PM
Who did you expect them to get? The market is pretty weak. The bullpen reinforcements are already planned and in Louisville right now (Isringhausen/Springer/Chapman). The starting rotation is something where there wasn't a big upgrade option available beyond Cliff Lee and the Reds tried there. Oswalt wasn't getting traded in the division.

I don't know how anyone can call a market weak when over 25 trades ended up being made this month. That's more players changing hands than arguably any July in memory.

A team has to be awfully selective to call that a "weak" market. What's worse is that it ended up being a buyer's market.

I don't think it's the end of the world. But it's pretty darn hard to buy the excuse that it was a weak market; not much was available or the asking prices were too high. The results speak otherwise.

Marc D
07-31-2010, 04:50 PM
They weren't either, but that is the point. We don't know who is going to win in a playoff series, especially by basing it off of head to head regular season match ups of 4-7 games spread through an entire season.

I don't care about being an 'underdog'. The Reds aren't worse by much than these other teams. Which means that 1 bad game by the other teams starter or one real good on by one of our guys and things switch. This isn't the 2004 Reds were are trying to compare to playoff teams. This is a good team.


Sure its a good team but its not as good as the teams at the top of the NL and that's my point. Those teams were better to start with and all made moves to improve. The Reds did nothing. When you are already a 1/2 step behind and the other guys in the race get faster you are in trouble.

BTW
Reds record vs top teams (SD, Atl, StL, Philly, LAD, SF) :13-22
Reds vs rest of NL Central (Chi, Houston, Mil, Pit): 24-10

Roughly the same sample size, roughly the same disparity. I no more believe the NL central teams are as good as the Reds than I do the Reds are as good as the top teams.

dougdirt
07-31-2010, 04:56 PM
I don't know how anyone can call a market weak when over 25 trades ended up being made this month. That's more players changing hands than arguably any July in memory.

A team has to be awfully selective to call that a "weak" market. What's worse is that it ended up being a buyer's market.

I don't think it's the end of the world. But it's pretty darn hard to buy the excuse that it was a weak market; not much was available or the asking prices were too high. The results speak otherwise.

How about a weak market to significantly upgrade our team where the Reds would have actually looked? The Reds weren't going to add a pitcher unless it was an ACE. I don't believe for a second that Houston was trading Oswalt to a team in the division, so that left 1 guy, who the Reds tried to go after. The bullpen had been pitching very well until last night and as I already noted, the Reds probably feel fine with the guys in AAA as help if they need it.

So that leaves what, left field and shortstop as black areas? I don't think the Reds feel left field or shortstop are black areas even if we do.

mth123
07-31-2010, 04:58 PM
So that leaves what, left field and shortstop as black areas? I don't think the Reds feel left field or shortstop are black areas even if we do.

I agree with this and its why the criticisim of the non-move is completely justified.

Brutus
07-31-2010, 04:59 PM
How about a weak market to significantly upgrade our team where the Reds would have actually looked? The Reds weren't going to add a pitcher unless it was an ACE. I don't believe for a second that Houston was trading Oswalt to a team in the division, so that left 1 guy, who the Reds tried to go after. The bullpen had been pitching very well until last night and as I already noted, the Reds probably feel fine with the guys in AAA as help if they need it.

So that leaves what, left field and shortstop as black areas? I don't think the Reds feel left field or shortstop are black areas even if we do.

Considering their current production out of LF, SS and the inconsistency in the bullpen, I would say there were plenty of positions that could have been upgraded. It's not like the Reds had to land Carl Crawford or Cliff Lee just to be able to improve the club. Not every deal has to be a blockbuster.

The Reds have enough spots on the roster that have been shaky recently that there's no excuse for not being able to find something.

REDblooded
07-31-2010, 05:01 PM
They might get a shot in the arm in September but you realize they have to play the month of August too , right?

Sure... Just like they played through April, May, June, and July.... I really don't see how any team in the division improved... So, if through 4 months the division has been a coin-flip, I see the Reds improving when rosters expand... I can't say the same for the Cards.

Phhhl
07-31-2010, 05:01 PM
Westbrook is just an innings eater. I am not under-valuing that, especially when the Cards have to start thinking about easing up on Garcia a little. But, he's nothing special. Giving up Ludwick for him basically offsets Westbrook's value. It is kind of a head scratcher, but it's their ballclub.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 05:04 PM
Sure... Just like they played through April, May, June, and July.... I really don't see how any team in the division improved... So, if through 4 months the division has been a coin-flip, I see the Reds improving when rosters expand... I can't say the same for the Cards.

The Reds will almost certainly be a minimum of 4-5 games out after their west coast trip.

dougdirt
07-31-2010, 05:06 PM
Considering their current production out of LF, SS and the inconsistency in the bullpen, I would say there were plenty of positions that could have been upgraded. It's not like the Reds had to land Carl Crawford or Cliff Lee just to be able to improve the club. Not every deal has to be a blockbuster.

The Reds have enough spots on the roster that have been shaky recently that there's no excuse for not being able to find something.

The bullpen has weak spots where? Closer and Bill Bray? I would add Carlos Fisher, but as the long man, if it gets to him its over anyways.

Well, the Reds weren't getting a closer. As for Bill Bray, they can replace him with Chapman, Isringhausen or Springer. I don't see the Reds thinking someone else was available that was a big upgrade from that step and worth giving up talent for such an upgrade.

And again, while we may think/know left field and shortstop are black areas, I don't think the Reds think they are. And if they don't think they are, then it doesn't matter.

As for not finding 'something', they probably felt they didn't need to because of the different reasons I have outlined. Whether you disagree with their assessment doesn't matter. It is why they did what they did.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 05:09 PM
The bullpen has weak spots where? Closer and Bill Bray? I would add Carlos Fisher, but as the long man, if it gets to him its over anyways.

Well, the Reds weren't getting a closer. As for Bill Bray, they can replace him with Chapman, Isringhausen or Springer. I don't see the Reds thinking someone else was available that was a big upgrade from that step and worth giving up talent for such an upgrade.

And again, while we may think/know left field and shortstop are black areas, I don't think the Reds think they are. And if they don't think they are, then it doesn't matter.

As for not finding 'something', they probably felt they didn't need to because of the different reasons I have outlined. Whether you disagree with their assessment doesn't matter. It is why they did what they did.

I think the Reds think they need assistance. Their pursuit of Lee says so.

TheNext44
07-31-2010, 05:10 PM
The Reds will almost certainly be a minimum of 4-5 games out after their west coast trip.

I agree that there's a good chance of that happening. And yet, even then they will still be in contention, in the very heart of contention.

dougdirt
07-31-2010, 05:11 PM
I think the Reds think they need assistance. Their pursuit of Lee says so.

Agreed there, but as I said, there was Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt as the top end guys, then a bunch of marginal at best upgrades. They went after Lee. They couldn't get it done with Alonso, Mesoraco and a few spare prospects. Roy Oswalt wasn't going to be traded in the division. The Reds think they need help, but they also know that what they needed hasn't been available since Cliff Lee was traded.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 05:12 PM
I agree that there's a good chance of that happening. And yet, even then they will still be in contention, in the very heart of contention.

Then all we're doing is arguing semantics. Where does "contention" begin and end? Within 5 games? Ten?

Brutus
07-31-2010, 05:13 PM
The bullpen has weak spots where? Closer and Bill Bray? I would add Carlos Fisher, but as the long man, if it gets to him its over anyways.

Well, the Reds weren't getting a closer. As for Bill Bray, they can replace him with Chapman, Isringhausen or Springer. I don't see the Reds thinking someone else was available that was a big upgrade from that step and worth giving up talent for such an upgrade.

And again, while we may think/know left field and shortstop are black areas, I don't think the Reds think they are. And if they don't think they are, then it doesn't matter.

As for not finding 'something', they probably felt they didn't need to because of the different reasons I have outlined. Whether you disagree with their assessment doesn't matter. It is why they did what they did.

None of the reasons you outlined are anything more than your own speculation. But it doesn't matter what the reasons are or aren't... it just matters that they put the best possible team on the field they can. And I don't think anyone here truly believes they're doing that. And if the Reds believe that, then there are bigger problems here than standing pat, as I don't see much to be gained by throwing out a .650 OPS shortstop with, at best, average defensive ability.

I don't panic on Gomes because if he truly is a liability, Chris Heisey could at least step in and be a likely upgrade. But I still worry about A) a backup bat for Rolen if he gets hurt, B) shorstop, C) the bullpen.

Chapman has never pitched in the majors, Isringhousen is coming off major surgery and Springer is 41 years old. Could any of those three help down the stretch? It's most definitely possible. But I would like to think the Reds are not counting on any of them.

kaldaniels
07-31-2010, 05:14 PM
Then all we're doing is arguing semantics. Where does "contention" begin and end? Within 5 games? Ten?

I'm not arguing sematics. I'm arguing that at .5 games out, they are in contention.

reds44
07-31-2010, 05:15 PM
It's going to be very interesting to see what the Reds do with Alonso in the offseason. He's on the verge of being ready, and he has no place to play. He'll probably get a September callup. The offseason could be very interesting, IMO.

dougdirt
07-31-2010, 05:17 PM
None of the reasons you outlined are anything more than your own speculation. But it doesn't matter what the reasons are or aren't... it just matters that they put the best possible team on the field they can. And I don't think anyone here truly believes they're doing that. And if the Reds believe that, then there are bigger problems here than standing pat, as I don't see much to be gained by throwing out a .650 OPS shortstop with, at best, average defensive ability.

I don't panic on Gomes because if he truly is a liability, Chris Heisey could at least step in and be a likely upgrade. But I still worry about A) a backup bat for Rolen if he gets hurt, B) shorstop, C) the bullpen.

Chapman has never pitched in the majors, Isringhousen is coming off major surgery and Springer is 41 years old. Could any of those three help down the stretch? It's most definitely possible. But I would like to think the Reds are not counting on any of them.

Well of course its my speculation, but given that the Reds have not given Paul Janish a sniff of two starts at SS in a week tells me they are perfectly fine with Cabrera. That is indeed a problem and we can agree with that.

With Gomes..... see Heisey and switch shortstop with left field.

As for the bullpen, from spots 2-5, they are pretty darn good right now. The closer has an ERA of 4.02 and can't find the strikezone. That isn't fun to think about, but the Reds can't trade him and they certainly aren't going to demote him from the closers role. So 2-6, the Reds are just fine with what they have in their minds. That 1st spot is Bray and while you may not be comfortable with the AAA options, I bet the Reds feel fine with Isringhausen who really impressed them in his workout and a lefty who can throw 102 MPH.

mth123
07-31-2010, 05:20 PM
It's going to be very interesting to see what the Reds do with Alonso in the offseason. He's on the verge of being ready, and he has no place to play. He'll probably get a September callup. The offseason could be very interesting, IMO.

Of course the season will be over by then and then we have to hope for unlikely repeats from a bunch of spots just to be in position again. I'm remembering some saying about a barn door and a cow from when I was a kid.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 05:21 PM
It's going to be very interesting to see what the Reds do with Alonso in the offseason. He's on the verge of being ready, and he has no place to play. He'll probably get a September callup. The offseason could be very interesting, IMO.

Walt's offseasons kind of suck. He's much more of an opportunist than he is an even-footing swapper.

reds44
07-31-2010, 05:23 PM
Walt's offseasons kind of suck. He's much more of an opportunist than he is an even-footing swapper.
Why because he is patient? Walt has shown the ability to wait for the right deal to come along. He went and got Rolen, he went hard for Lee. I wanted to make a deal too, but Walt doesn't deal to just deal.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 05:24 PM
Why because he is patient? Walt has shown the ability to wait for the right deal to come along. He went and got Rolen, he went hard for Lee. I wanted to make a deal too, but Walt doesn't deal to just deal.

What important player has he acquired in the offseason since his arrival here? All of his real work has been in season.

dougdirt
07-31-2010, 05:26 PM
What important player has he acquired in the offseason since his arrival here? All of his real work has been in season.

Has he had the money to make any 'important' player acquisitions since his arrival here?

TheNext44
07-31-2010, 05:26 PM
Then all we're doing is arguing semantics. Where does "contention" begin and end? Within 5 games? Ten?

If I say that I have a terminal disease when I have a cold, arguing against that isn't semantics.

Contention is a very easily definable terms. Here's one definition:

Contention:

To be in a situation where what you achieve has a reasonable chance of happening.

The Reds are in contention.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 05:27 PM
If I say that I have a terminal disease when I have a cold, arguing against that isn't semantics.

Contention is a very easily definable terms. Here's one definition:

Contention:

To be in a situation where what you achieve has a reasonable chance of happening.

The Reds are in contention.

What's reasonable? Anything over 50% shot?

reds44
07-31-2010, 05:28 PM
What important player has he acquired in the offseason since his arrival here? All of his real work has been in season.
Who cares when it happens? So if he traded for Rolen in the offseason instead of July that would make some sort of difference?

I'm pretty sure Walt signed a left hander that throws 102 mph.

I will now listen to you tell me how much he sucks.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 05:29 PM
Who cares when it happens? So if he traded for Rolen in the offseason instead of July that would make some sort of difference?

I'm pretty sure Walt signed a left hander that throws 102 mph.

I will now listen to you tell me how much he sucks.

I don't know if he sucks or not, but what has he done for the Reds lately?

It does matter when it happens. Without pretty big additions in the offseason, the Reds aren't going to be any better next year.

reds44
07-31-2010, 05:32 PM
I don't know if he sucks or not, but what has he done for the Reds lately?

It does matter when it happens. Without pretty big additions in the offseason, the Reds aren't going to be any better next year.
Walt acquired the Reds 2nd best player last season. He's shown the ability to acquire people who are good at baseball.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 05:35 PM
Walt acquired the Reds 2nd best player last season. He's shown the ability to acquire people who are good at baseball.

Look, I get it. But this season should be revealing to Walt that this team's got a LOT of soft spots in need of shoring up. If the plan is to hope Bruce and Stubbs develop, that Volquez is ever going to be the 2008 Volquez again, that Chapman is going to start, then that isn't a plan, that's pie in the sky optimism.

reds44
07-31-2010, 05:36 PM
Look, I get it. But this season should be revealing to Walt that this team's got a LOT of soft spots in need of shoring up. If the plan is to hope Bruce and Stubbs develop, that Volquez is ever going to be the 2008 Volquez again, that Chapman is going to start, then that isn't a plan, that's pie in the sky optimism.
The Reds have a lot of assests in the high minors who they can move in the offseason.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 05:36 PM
The Reds have a lot of assests in the high minors who they can move in the offseason.

But very little payroll room. I hope this team looks a lot different next season. For it to be any good, it's almost surely going to have to lose several contracts and add several back.

reds44
07-31-2010, 05:38 PM
But very little payroll room. I hope this team looks a lot different next season. For it to be any good, it's almost surely going to have to lose several contracts and add several back.
Harang will come off the books, Arroyo could come off the books. They'll be some money to spend.

mth123
07-31-2010, 05:39 PM
Harang will come off the books, Arroyo could come off the books. They'll be some money to spend.

Not much. Lots of raises and arb guys. Not really a lot of room for additions.

reds44
07-31-2010, 05:40 PM
Not much. Lots of raises and arb guys. Not really a lot of room for additions.
Depends what the additions are. Trade Alonso for young, major league ready talent and you don't really add payroll.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 05:41 PM
Harang will come off the books, Arroyo could come off the books. They'll be some money to spend.

Raises eat up their salary slots. They're going to have send Arroyo and Harang out AND others getting raises, like Phillips and Cordero. No small order.

TheNext44
07-31-2010, 05:41 PM
But very little payroll room. I hope this team looks a lot different next season. For it to be any good, it's almost surely going to have to lose several contracts and add several back.

As it stands right now, the Reds will have between $10-15M to add to the payroll if they don't raise it above what it currently is. Considering attendance is on the rise, it's probably going to be around $15-20M. And that includes the worst case scenario for the players arbitration eligible.

TheNext44
07-31-2010, 05:42 PM
Raises eat up their salary slots. They're going to have send Arroyo and Harang out AND others getting raises, like Phillips and Cordero. No small order.

Simply false. Not even close to being true.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 05:42 PM
Simply false. Not even close to being true.

It was shown in another thread some time ago.

camisadelgolf
07-31-2010, 05:43 PM
Look, I get it. But this season should be revealing to Walt that this team's got a LOT of soft spots in need of shoring up. If the plan is to hope Bruce and Stubbs develop, that Volquez is ever going to be the 2008 Volquez again, that Chapman is going to start, then that isn't a plan, that's pie in the sky optimism.
Bruce and Stubbs have been slightly above average. Volquez hasn't helped the team. Chapman hasn't helped the team. Despite all of this, the Reds are in the thick of the race. All else staying the same, the Reds really only need one or two of those things to happen for them to be a few wins better. The great thing about the squad is that they have backup plans in case all of those plans fail. Chapman and Volquez aren't the only young arms being counted on. If Stubbs flops, there's Heisey. If Bruce hits a downward spiral, there's Todd Frazier. etc. etc. etc.

This isn't pie in the sky optimism. This is a legitimate organization that has improved leaps and bounds every year for the past five years. Sure, it could all feasibly come crashing down, but at this point, I'd call that unlikely.

mth123
07-31-2010, 05:43 PM
As it stands right now, the Reds will have between $10-15M to add to the payroll if they don't raise it above what it currently is. Considering attendance is on the rise, it's probably going to be around $15-20M. And that includes the worst case scenario for the players arbitration eligible.

No. Are you figuring on buy-outs and not replacing Arroyo? How much do you account for raises to Votto, Cueto, Bruce and Volquez. Combined that's probably $14 Million. Add Buy-outs for around $5 Million and Raises for Phillips, Gomes and Masset and its all gone.

TheNext44
07-31-2010, 05:44 PM
It was shown in another thread some time ago.

Then that thread had false information. Getting the actual numbers now. Will post them shortly.

reds44
07-31-2010, 05:44 PM
No. Are you figuring on buy-outs and not replacing Arroyo? How much do you account for raises to Votto, Cueto, Bruce and Volquez. Combined that's probably $14 Million. Add Buy-outs for around $5 Million and Raises for Phillips, Gomes and Masset and its all gone.
If you replace Arroyo with Chapman, you're not spending any money you haven't already spent.

Brutus
07-31-2010, 05:45 PM
It was shown in another thread some time ago.

By my calculations, including buyouts for Arroyo & Harang, and an estimated $14 million in raises for Bruce, Votto and Cueto, I came to having about $8-10 million left to spend.

Benihana
07-31-2010, 05:46 PM
The Reds are out of contention.

This statement tells anyone all they need to know about your point of view.

mth123
07-31-2010, 05:47 PM
If you replace Arroyo with Chapman, you're not spending any money you haven't already spent.

So you want to replace one of the better innings eaters in baseball over the last 5 years with an unproven guy who hasn't thrown 120 innings in any season and is spending half this year in the pen? Bringing Arroyo back is the minimum they need to do and I think they need an upgrade to a number 1 type.

mth123
07-31-2010, 05:49 PM
By my calculations, including buyouts for Arroyo & Harang, and an estimated $14 million in raises for Bruce, Votto and Cueto, I came to having about $8-10 million left to spend.

Maybe and that isn't enough to address the holes in the rotation, the SS spot and to replace Hernandez. There certainly won't be upgrades with anything less than $15 Million.

TheNext44
07-31-2010, 05:52 PM
Cordero 12.1
Philips 11.1
Rolen 8.1
Votto 7
Cueto 4
Bruce 3
Chapman 1
Masset 1.5
Volquez 1
Gomes 1.75
Alonso 0.6
Dickerson 0.5
Ondrusek 0.5
Miller 0.5
Gomes 0.5
Hanigan 0.5
Herrera 0.5
Owings 0.5
Bailey 0.5
Leake 0.5
Janish 0.5
Woods 0.5
Heisey 0.5
Stubbs 0.5
Cozart 0.5
Smith 0.5
Bray 0.5
Harang 2
Arroyo 2
Cabrera 1

Total 64.15

Reds currently at $76.1M payroll for this season

Brutus
07-31-2010, 05:52 PM
Maybe and that isn't enough to address the holes in the rotation, the SS spot and to replace Hernandez. There certainly won't be upgrades with anything less than $15 Million.

I don't see the need to address the rotation, honestly. Maybe take a flier on Webb if he's willing to take a home team discount, in light of his injury troubles.

Otherwise, I would commit resources to finding a SS (Stephen Drew), unless they're really gung ho about Cozart.

mth123
07-31-2010, 05:55 PM
I don't see the need to address the rotation, honestly. Maybe take a flier on Webb if he's willing to take a home team discount, in light of his injury troubles.

Otherwise, I would commit resources to finding a SS (Stephen Drew), unless they're really gung ho about Cozart.

So you go with Volquez, Cueto, Leake, Wood and Bailey/Chapman? Pretty risky IMO. Had Bailey established himself in 2010, I might agree. Who relaces Rhodes.

That looks like a staff of a second division team IMO.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 05:56 PM
I don't see the need to address the rotation, honestly.

If you're not at all interested in contending, yeah, this would be the way to go.

Brutus
07-31-2010, 05:59 PM
So you go with Volquez, Cueto, Leake, Wood and Bailey/Chapman? Pretty risky IMO. Had Bailey established himself in 2010, I might agree. Who relaces Rhodes.

That looks like a staff of a second division team IMO.

There's some risk, but that also could wind up being the best rotation in baseball--and I don't say that as hyperbole. Bailey and Chapman are two "potential" aces as fifth starters. That's not exactly all that risky.

To me, that rotation looks nothing like a second division team. As I said, there are some unknowns there, but let's be honest here: the Reds will get nowhere near any top flight starter this offseason. Cliff Lee will sign for nearly $20 million. So I see no reason not to go with that group. If Webb is signable, that would be fine. Otherwise, I would not worry about trotting that rotation out there and see what happens.

TheNext44
07-31-2010, 05:59 PM
So you go with Volquez, Cueto, Leake, Wood and Bailey/Chapman? Pretty risky IMO. Had Bailey established himself in 2010, I might agree. Who relaces Rhodes.

That looks like a staff of a second division team IMO.

Granted, a veteran innings eater is needed, but they are cheap, and even without one, that rotation is as good or better than the nearly every team's in the NL. Easily in the top half.

Rhodes only cost $2M a year. Set men are cheap and plentiful. The key is getting a good one.

mth123
07-31-2010, 06:00 PM
Cordero 12.1
Philips 11.1
Rolen 8.1
Votto 7
Cueto 4
Bruce 3
Chapman 1
Masset 1.5
Volquez 1
Gomes 1.75
Alonso 0.6
Dickerson 0.5
Ondrusek 0.5
Miller 0.5
Gomes 0.5
Hanigan 0.5
Herrera 0.5
Owings 0.5
Bailey 0.5
Leake 0.5
Janish 0.5
Woods 0.5
Heisey 0.5
Stubbs 0.5
Cozart 0.5
Smith 0.5
Bray 0.5
Harang 2
Arroyo 2
Cabrera 1

Total 64.15

Reds currently at $76.1M payroll for this season

Gomes is listed twice and Volquez is arb eligible. Probably closer to $3 Million IMO. Need to replace Rhodes and it won't be for the $2 Million bargain the reds had this year. Unless the payroll goes to $85 Million, this team will need a lot of unprovens to step up and a lot of guys having great years to repeat.

Bring Arroyo back and you add $11 Million with no upgrades and you're back to this year's figure w/o Hernandez or Rhodes. Where are the additions coming from?

Brutus
07-31-2010, 06:00 PM
If you're not at all interested in contending, yeah, this would be the way to go.

Until you can square away a reasonable definition for contending, any judgments on a rotation is moot. We're two thirds of the way into the season, the Reds are a half game out of first, and you don't see them as a contender. And quite honestly next year's staff looks better than this year's (considering Volquez will be healthy, Cueto will be a year older and Leake and Wood will no longer be rookies).

Brutus
07-31-2010, 06:01 PM
Gomes is listed twice and Volquez is arb eligible. Probably closer to $3 Million IMO. Need to replace Rhodes and it won't be for the $2 Million bargain the reds had this year. Unless the payroll goes to $85 Million, this team will need a lot of unprovens to step up and a lot of guys having great years to repeat.

Bring Arroyo back and you add $11 Million with no upgrades and you're back to this year's figure w/o Hernandez or Rhodes. Where are the additions coming from?

Gomes has a club option for $1 million. So the Reds will not need to arbitrate him.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 06:03 PM
Until you can square away a reasonable definition for contending, any judgments on a rotation is moot. We're two thirds of the way into the season, the Reds are a half game out of first, and you don't see them as a contender. And quite honestly next year's staff looks better than this year's (considering Volquez will be healthy, Cueto will be a year older and Leake and Wood will no longer be rookies).

The Reds have contended in a season that is 2/3 of a season long. They're going to fall out. The same thing will happen next season unless a major talent infusion occurs.

mth123
07-31-2010, 06:03 PM
There's some risk, but that also could wind up being the best rotation in baseball--and I don't say that as hyperbole. Bailey and Chapman are two "potential" aces as fifth starters. That's not exactly all that risky.

To me, that rotation looks nothing like a second division team. As I said, there are some unknowns there, but let's be honest here: the Reds will get nowhere near any top flight starter this offseason. Cliff Lee will sign for nearly $20 million. So I see no reason not to go with that group. If Webb is signable, that would be fine. Otherwise, I would not worry about trotting that rotation out there and see what happens.

So a team in the bottom half in pitching removes arguably its best starter (Arroyo) and best reliever (Rhodes) adds only rookies and has a couple guys due for a sophmore slump and its going to be a first division staff? I don't buy it.

camisadelgolf
07-31-2010, 06:05 PM
It was shown in another thread some time ago.
By the most conservative estimates, if you let go Arthur Rhodes, Mike Lincoln, Miguel Cairo, and Laynce Nix while declining the options on Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang, and Orlando Cabrera, it would cost the Reds at least $65M to keep the team intact.

mth123
07-31-2010, 06:05 PM
Gomes has a club option for $1 million. So the Reds will not need to arbitrate him.

Never said they need to arbitrate. His option is worth $1.75 Million. They need to arb Volquez though and it won't be $1 Million.

mth123
07-31-2010, 06:06 PM
By the most conservative estimates, if you let go Arthur Rhodes, Mike Lincoln, Miguel Cairo, and Laynce Nix while declining the options on Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang, and Orlando Cabrera, it would cost the Reds at least $65M to keep the team intact.

Except without Arroyo, Rhodes and Hernandez the team isn't intact.

Brutus
07-31-2010, 06:07 PM
So a team in the bottom half in pitching removes arguably its best starter (Arroyo) and best reliever (Rhodes) adds only rookies and has a couple guys due for a sophmore slump and its going to be a first division staff? I don't buy it.

I'm talking about the rotation, not the bullpen.

And Arroyo is not the best starter on the Reds staff. Not even close. I have no reservations about bringing Arroyo back. But if they did, it's not to be the "ace" of the staff but for nothing more than pitching a lot of decent innings. That's not being the best starter, that's simply leadership and sparing the pen. Big difference.

TheNext44
07-31-2010, 06:07 PM
Gomes is listed twice and Volquez is arb eligible. Probably closer to $3 Million IMO. Need to replace Rhodes and it won't be for the $2 Million bargain the reds had this year. Unless the payroll goes to $85 Million, this team will need a lot of unprovens to step up and a lot of guys having great years to repeat.

Bring Arroyo back and you add $11 Million with no upgrades and you're back to this year's figure w/o Hernandez or Rhodes. Where are the additions coming from?

Replace second Gomes with a back up outfielder. The names aren't as important as the slots and salary the Reds will have to pay.

Arbitration is based on the last three seasons, with more weight given to the last season, then the second season. Much of it is based on counting stats. Being injured for a full year makes it impossible for Volquez to demand much more than $1M.

And the Reds have Rhodes replacement in house. No need to spend any money on the bullpen.

mth123
07-31-2010, 06:09 PM
Replace second Gomes with a back up outfielder. The names aren't as important as the slots and salary the Reds will have to pay.

Arbitration is based on the last three seasons, with more weight given to the last season, then the second season. Much of it is based on counting stats. Being injured for a full year makes it impossible for Volquez to demand much more than $1M.

And the Reds have Rhodes replacement in house. No need to spend any money on the bullpen.

Who replaces Rhodes? I think a former All Star going to arb will get more than $1 Million

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 06:10 PM
Except without Arroyo, Rhodes and Hernandez the team isn't intact.

I think what he's saying is: here are the people who can potentially come off the books. Here's what their commitment would be without them.

That's not a lot of savings; 10 million gets you very little impact generally.

Brutus
07-31-2010, 06:11 PM
Never said they need to arbitrate. His option is worth $1.75 Million. They need to arb Volquez though and it won't be $1 Million.

My bad, I misread your post on Gomes. I thought you said he was arb eligible.

Marc D
07-31-2010, 06:13 PM
So essentially the net payflex is realized only if you let Arroyo go (10MM ish).

That begs the question(s) is he a luxury they can afford? Would you rather have one more year of Arroyo and the draft pick(s) or the payflex for 2011?

If he could be had for 10-11MM a year I'd rather have Jayson Werth in LF, let Cozart and Janish play SS and take your chances with the talent in the rotation.

At some point when you are a small market team living off the farm you are going to have to bet on the young talent come what may.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2010, 06:15 PM
.

At some point when you are a small market team living off the farm you are going to have to bet on the young talent come what may.

I'd say they're doing just that this season. At least Walt is. All the high priced guys are the work of other GMs.

REDblooded
07-31-2010, 06:16 PM
I would also argue very strongly that Bailey out of the bullpen for the rest of the season would equate to being a VERY nice addition...

mth123
07-31-2010, 06:18 PM
I'm talking about the rotation, not the bullpen.

And Arroyo is not the best starter on the Reds staff. Not even close. I have no reservations about bringing Arroyo back. But if they did, it's not to be the "ace" of the staff but for nothing more than pitching a lot of decent innings. That's not being the best starter, that's simply leadership and sparing the pen. Big difference.

Agree that Arroyo isn't an ace. No one on the staff is. But he's either the top returning starter or second to Cueto. I think going into 2011 with Two second year guys, two guys coming off injuries and a guy who spent half the year as a reliever to go with Cueto is a huge gamble. Somebody needs to add stability of solid competitive innings that give the team a chance to win. The typical innings eater is not cheap. There are guys who pitch a lot of innings as batting tees who are cheap, but guys who get you to the late innings with a chance to win most of the time are not so easy to get and are costly.

mth123
07-31-2010, 06:20 PM
I think what he's saying is: here are the people who can potentially come off the books. Here's what their commitment would be without them.

That's not a lot of savings; 10 million gets you very little impact generally.

Agreed.

TheNext44
07-31-2010, 06:21 PM
So essentially the net payflex is realized only if you let Arroyo go (10MM ish).

That begs the question(s) is he a luxury they can afford? Would you rather have one more year of Arroyo and the draft pick(s) or the payflex for 2011?

If he could be had for 10-11MM a year I'd rather have Jayson Werth in LF, let Cozart and Janish play SS and take your chances with the talent in the rotation.

At some point when you are a small market team living off the farm you are going to have to bet on the young talent come what may.

Esssentially, yes. But a lot could change between now and then.

The Reds could raise payroll. I would think a $5M bump is not out of the question.
The Reds could sign Votto and or Bruce to long term contracts. Usually those deals involve lower front end years in exchange for long term commitment and higher final years.
The Reds could renegotiate Phillip's deal into an extension with lower salary for 2011, similar to what they did with Rolen.

None of those things could happen. but if just one did, it woul make a big difference in what the Reds could do next season.

PuffyPig
07-31-2010, 06:24 PM
So a team in the bottom half in pitching removes arguably its best starter (Arroyo) and best reliever (Rhodes) adds only rookies and has a couple guys due for a sophmore slump and its going to be a first division staff? I don't buy it.

Since early May of this year our pitching staff has been pretty good.

We have a lot of options on the staff, it could be quite good.

TheNext44
07-31-2010, 06:24 PM
I think what he's saying is: here are the people who can potentially come off the books. Here's what their commitment would be without them.

That's not a lot of savings; 10 million gets you very little impact generally.

Jocketty added Gomes and Cabrera and brought back Hernandez with zero money to work with.

It really isn't the amount available, it's how smart you are with it.

mth123
07-31-2010, 06:34 PM
Jocketty added Gomes and Cabrera and brought back Hernandez with zero money to work with.

It really isn't the amount available, it's how smart you are with it.

And he might be able to do that, but with Aroryo and Rhodes leaving its about 300 effective to awesome IP that need to be replaced. I like the Reds young talent as much as anyone and I'm probably the only one left who thinks that Bailey can still be a TOR starter, but they need some reliability without so many questions. Leake, Wood, Volquez, Bailey and Chapman are all really iffy IMO. Fooling with Chapman in the pen means he won't be ready to pitch in the rotation in 2011. He might fill Rhodes shoes though and that would be useful but not really what we hope for.

I'm on record of wanting the Reds to go with Cozart and Janish (or a replacement for Janish that can hit LH) at SS, Miller and Hanigan at C while waiting for a mid-year promotion of Mesoraco and letting Arroyo walk and going all in for a real TOR guy. I hope they can find a taker for Harang in a Waiver deal to remove the buy-out and make some added budget space.

HokieRed
07-31-2010, 06:35 PM
Why is the assumption being made that Arroyo and Rhodes are leaving?

mth123
07-31-2010, 06:37 PM
Why is the assumption being made that Arroyo and Rhodes are leaving?

I'm not sure they are, but in this budget analysis presented, the team would need a bump to the payroll without adding anything and going with kids to replace Hernandez, Cabrera and Harang to keep them. They would both be due for raises of about $2 Million.

corkedbat
07-31-2010, 07:07 PM
And he might be able to do that, but with Aroryo and Rhodes leaving its about 300 effective to awesome IP that need to be replaced. I like the Reds young talent as much as anyone and I'm probably the only one left who thinks that Bailey can still be a TOR starter, but they need some reliability without so many questions. Leake, Wood, Volquez, Bailey and Chapman are all really iffy IMO. Fooling with Chapman in the pen means he won't be ready to pitch in the rotation in 2011. He might fill Rhodes shoes though and that would be useful but not really what we hope for.

I'm on record of wanting the Reds to go with Cozart and Janish (or a replacement for Janish that can hit LH) at SS, Miller and Hanigan at C while waiting for a mid-year promotion of Mesoraco and letting Arroyo walk and going all in for a real TOR guy. I hope they can find a taker for Harang in a Waiver deal to remove the buy-out and make some added budget space.

Gotta disagree on this one. Chapman (like Leake) was only going to pitch a limited number of innings this year no matter what. In addition to getting him ready for possible use with the Reds down the stretch, moving him to the pen stretches out the length of time you can use him this season instead of shutting him down completely. I don't think it effects whether he starts or relieves next season. The only think that decides whether he is ready to join the Reds rotation out of ST is his control.

REDblooded
07-31-2010, 07:26 PM
Moving him to the pen also conditions him to pitch in high-pressure situations...

BoydsOfSummer
07-31-2010, 07:28 PM
The Reds will almost certainly be a minimum of 4-5 games out after their west coast trip.

I was telling my buddy that I think 4-5 back at the end was probably where they end up. It could happen as soon as that trip though I'm sure.

The young pitching is bound to start acting like young pitching eventually. I'm not convinced Harang and Bailey pick that up if it happens. Rolen has to continue the season he's having without missing any more time. The reason I predicted 82 wins to begin with--Stubbs and Bruce progressing significantly--Isn't happening.

I hope like hell I'm wrong.

mth123
07-31-2010, 07:30 PM
Gotta disagree on this one. Chapman (like Leake) was only going to pitch a limited number of innings this year no matter what. In addition to getting him ready for possible use with the Reds down the stretch, moving him to the pen stretches out the length of time you can use him this season instead of shutting him down completely. I don't think it effects whether he starts or relieves next season. The only think that decides whether he is ready to join the Reds rotation out of ST is his control.

His IP high in Cuba was 119. He won't get that many in 2010. How do you get him to the point where he won't be limited? Getting him to 150 or so in 2010 was important. Now that will need to be done next year and he'll be limited all over again. I guess you could do that in the majors, but it would be a lot easier in AAA. If he starts the year in the big league rotation, he'll need to be shut down before the end of August.

OnBaseMachine
08-01-2010, 12:13 AM
Article from the Cincinnati Enquirer:

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20100731/COL03/8010335

reds44
08-01-2010, 12:25 AM
What purpose would Kearns have served? He doesn't really bring much to the table that we already have in Heisey and Gomes.

I think it would have been cool to have Kearns again, and I wouldn't have complained, but he just seems kind of redundant to what we already have.

Keep in mind Jocketty acquired Larry Walker in August with the Cardinals.

Ghosts of 1990
08-01-2010, 12:30 AM
What purpose would Kearns have served? He doesn't really bring much to the table that we already have in Heisey and Gomes.

I think it would have been cool to have Kearns again, and I wouldn't have complained, but he just seems kind of redundant to what we already have.

He's better then Heisey.

Everyone is in love with Heisey right now, it's easy to be. He's played well in spells but if he played every day, the opposition would compile a book on him pretty quick and start getting him out with ease.

Kearns however, while he's had some injury issues he's a .270 guy after book after book is out on him. Basically he's a more dependable every day pro when healthy (even after all the wear and tear on his body and all the years later) then anyone we have in the OF right now.

reds44
08-01-2010, 12:32 AM
He's better then Heisey.

Everyone is in love with Heisey right now, it's easy to be. He's played well in spells but if he played every day, the opposition would compile a book on him pretty quick and start getting him out with ease.

Kearns however, while he's had some injury issues he's a .270 guy after book after book is out on him. Basically he's a more dependable every day pro when healthy (even after all the wear and tear on his body and all the years later) then anyone we have in the OF right now.
He was HORRIBLE his last two years in Washington. I don't know if you can say he's better than Heisey yet. He might be, but we don't know enough about Heisey.

Don't disagree that he'd be more reliable than Heisey. He's kind of like Gomes and Heisey put together.

reds44
08-01-2010, 12:46 AM
Joe Sheehan has both us and the Cardinals as losers:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/joe_sheehan/07/31/winners.losers1/index.html

TheNext44
08-01-2010, 01:32 AM
Joe Sheehan has both us and the Cardinals as losers:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/joe_sheehan/07/31/winners.losers1/index.html

Oh crap. I actually agree with Sheehan on something. Well two things, as he seems to be right on both counts.

Ron Madden
08-01-2010, 03:25 AM
I'm a little disappointed Walt couldn't make a deal to improve the club but I'm not surprised he stood pat.

Like I said earlier I'd rather Walt stand pat than make a stupid trade just for the sake of DOING SOMETHING before the deadline.

mth123
08-01-2010, 05:57 AM
Reds: I'm not at all convinced Walt Jocketty isn't trapped under something heavy. It isn't just that the Reds didn't make a trade; it's that that didn't make a good trade rumor. With some prospects having strong seasons, one big bat blocked by a star (Yonder Alonso/Joey Votto) and a number of holes on a first-place team, Jocketty did nothing. He may yet -- two of his best deals in St. Louis, acquiring Larry Walker and Woody Williams -- happened in August, but for now, the Reds' silent deadline makes them losers.


Its called a budget and Aaron Harang's injury that made him impossible to move to create room.

Benihana
08-02-2010, 12:28 AM
The Reds have contended in a season that is 2/3 of a season long. They're going to fall out. The same thing will happen next season unless a major talent infusion occurs.

And they're going to get swept by the Braves, right?

reds44
08-02-2010, 12:30 AM
And they're going to get swept by the Braves, right?
The Reds had no chance of winning today with Volquez pitching. None.

kaldaniels
08-03-2010, 12:11 AM
Sure. 82.

You're calling for 22-35 the rest of the way to get to this prediction you made less than 96 hours ago. Care to amend?

Let me know when the NL Central leaders after 107 games are in contention.

Sorry to be somewhat picking on you, but to suggest as I said that after 100 games a team .5 games back is not in contention, is asinine. Funny thing is, I still say odds favor the Reds missing the playoffs...but they've got a decent chance.

One thing we can agree on is I have horrible grammar. :D

Falls City Beer
08-03-2010, 08:28 AM
You're calling for 22-35 the rest of the way to get to this prediction you made less than 96 hours ago. Care to amend?

Let me know when the NL Central leaders after 107 games are in contention.

Sorry to be somewhat picking on you, but to suggest as I said that after 100 games a team .5 games back is not in contention, is asinine. Funny thing is, I still say odds favor the Reds missing the playoffs...but they've got a decent chance.

One thing we can agree on is I have horrible grammar. :D

22-35 is a real possibility. Especially now that injuries are starting to pile up.

Cedric
08-03-2010, 09:00 AM
22-35 is a real possibility. Especially now that injuries are starting to pile up.

There is no way you really believe this. This is becoming a schtick.

Falls City Beer
08-03-2010, 09:04 AM
There is no way you really believe this. This is becoming a schtick.

They have 19 games remaining against the NL West. You bet I believe it. They could go 0-9 or 1-8 in the big parks in San Fran, LA, and SD fairly easily. This team is 100% homer-dependent. Votto out, Cabrera out, Rolen always a question mark.

Scrap Irony
08-03-2010, 10:35 AM
22-35 is a real possibility.

Really?

Wow.

Just, wow.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-03-2010, 10:54 AM
I don't agree with FCB, but I don't see how anyone that has followed this team over the last 15 years would think a 22-35 finish would be that unbelievable.

Scrap Irony
08-03-2010, 11:14 AM
Well, for starters, this isn't last year's team. Or the year before. Or the year before. But that's been ignored now for most of the season in favor of knee-jerk pessimism insisting it's unbiased analysis.

The pitching is above average.

The offense is well above average.

The schedule is among the easiest in the game, especially in September.

The majority of the teams in their division have made deals to make themselves worse this season. Those that haven't are struggling to begin with.

This is the season that matters. I don't give a rip about last year.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-03-2010, 11:25 AM
Relax and enjoy the ride.

Just saying, nothing is impossible.

22-35 or 35-22

We've seen it happen before. What matters is the next 50+ games. This team has little margin for error or injuries. It just is what it is.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-03-2010, 11:28 AM
Correction to myself (and FCB). A 22-35 finish would be unbelievable because there are only 55 games left. 22-33? Maybe, but I doubt it.

guttle11
08-03-2010, 11:30 AM
There is no way you really believe this. This is becoming a schtick.

Becoming? It's been schtick for years. I'm not sure why anyone takes him seriously. The Reds have out performed nearly every prediction, and each new one gets more and more outlandish.

You say enough things, eventually you'll be right. Right now he's focusing on the small sample size thing, anything can happen over X amount of games. Well, yeah. And?

kaldaniels
08-03-2010, 12:02 PM
Correction to myself (and FCB). A 22-35 finish would be unbelievable because there are only 55 games left. 22-33? Maybe, but I doubt it.

Math isn't my thing aparently.

Falls City Beer
08-03-2010, 12:24 PM
You say enough things, eventually you'll be right. Right now he's focusing on the small sample size thing, anything can happen over X amount of games. Well, yeah. And?

Believe me I know how this will work: the Reds fall short because of their 19 games remaining against a division that is head and shoulders above the one the Reds are in and the argument will be pablum like "Well, hey, we tried and...and...there's always 2011!" Ignoring the argument that a few others and I have made about the necessity for reinforcements. This team could win without any reinforcements--Pujols could end his season tonight, for all we know--or they could end up being 10 games out at the end, but why would any GM allow a season like this go by without adding something significant? This is this team's second real shot in 15 years to go to the postseason. This is a REAL chance, and they passed it by. It's spilled milk, sure. But it's no less unconscionable from a fan's standpoint. I don't see how any GM in his right mind could look at the schedule for Aug. & Sept., look at the Reds' current standings and say, "We don't need anything."

Cedric
08-03-2010, 12:39 PM
19 games against what division?

Falls City Beer
08-03-2010, 12:40 PM
19 games against what division?

The NL West--they're the Major Leagues to the NL Central's AAA. It's easy to get cocky when you face the worst team I've seen in my entire baseball watching life of 35 years--the 2010 Pirates.

Believe me, when the Reds are truly stacked and ready to cruise to a division title, you'll hear it from me. I'll be as arrogant and cocky as the next fan. But I don't play the heavy out of some desire for schtick. It's what I really believe, it's not me provoking. I don't know how many times I have to say that.

Falls City Beer
08-03-2010, 12:54 PM
I'll say this though: the Reds could do themselves a heck of a favor by going 6-0 against the Cardinals the rest of the way. While 6-0 isn't likely, 4-2 is probably an out and out necessity, considering the remainder of the Reds' schedule, and the relative ease of the Cardinals' schedule outside of Cincy and SD.

edabbs44
08-03-2010, 12:54 PM
The NL West--they're the Major Leagues to the NL Central's AAA. It's easy to get cocky when you face the worst team I've seen in my entire baseball watching life of 35 years--the 2010 Pirates.

Believe me, when the Reds are truly stacked and ready to cruise to a division title, you'll hear it from me. I'll be as arrogant and cocky as the next fan. But I don't play the heavy out of some desire for schtick. It's what I really believe, it's not me provoking. I don't know how many times I have to say that.

7 against Zona isn't really bothering me too much. You?

Chip R
08-03-2010, 12:56 PM
I'll say this though: the Reds could do themselves a heck of a favor by going 6-0 against the Cardinals the rest of the way. While 6-0 isn't likely, 4-2 is probably an out and out necessity, considering the remainder of the Reds' schedule, and the relative ease of the Cardinals' schedule outside of Cincy and SD.

Thank you, Captain Obvious.

Falls City Beer
08-03-2010, 12:57 PM
7 against Zona isn't really bothering me too much. You?

Certainly Arizona at home I'm not worried. But I could easily see them having a travel day hiccup and lose the first game on the road trip (seems to be a Reds' tradition).

Falls City Beer
08-03-2010, 12:59 PM
Thank you, Captain Obvious.

I think most folks would be perfectly content with a 3-3 or even a 2-4 against the Cards. I don't think the Reds have that kind of luxury at all.

guttle11
08-03-2010, 01:03 PM
Believe me I know how this will work: the Reds fall short because of their 19 games remaining against a division that is head and shoulders above the one the Reds are in and the argument will be pablum like "Well, hey, we tried and...and...there's always 2011!" Ignoring the argument that a few others and I have made about the necessity for reinforcements. This team could win without any reinforcements--Pujols could end his season tonight, for all we know--or they could end up being 10 games out at the end, but why would any GM allow a season like this go by without adding something significant? This is this team's second real shot in 15 years to go to the postseason. This is a REAL chance, and they passed it by. It's spilled milk, sure. But it's no less unconscionable from a fan's standpoint. I don't see how any GM in his right mind could look at the schedule for Aug. & Sept., look at the Reds' current standings and say, "We don't need anything."

Saying they need reinforcements and predicting doom when they didn't come are really two different arguments, though.

I think a lot of what you say has some merit, although not as much as you believe. It's just hard to take anything you say seriously when at 4:01PM saturday you start claiming "the Reds are out of contention", as if a future swoon was already fact.

This team hasn't lost a series since before the break, including wins over Colorado and Atlanta. They may well struggle in the 12 games against the non-Arizona NL West teams, but that wouldn't remove them from contention, it would just put more pressure on the games vs the Pirates, Cubs, Astros and Brewers. The Cardinals aren't that good, and have a losing road record. Coming off a home heavy hot stretch, they've gained a total of 1.5 games on the Reds. No question the long trip out West will be tough, but if they do well enough to stay within a couple games of STL, the last few weeks of the season are very advantageous to the Reds.

Cincy will be ok. They may win the division, they may not. But presenting any theory as fact as this point only makes you look stupid. Any number of things could happen.

edabbs44
08-03-2010, 01:10 PM
Certainly Arizona at home I'm not worried. But I could easily see them having a travel day hiccup and lose the first game on the road trip (seems to be a Reds' tradition).

When 40% of those west coast games you speak of are against the Pittsburgh of the West, I think that helps a bit.

Falls City Beer
08-03-2010, 01:14 PM
When 40% of those west coast games you speak of are against the Pittsburgh of the West, I think that helps a bit.

Arizona has a pretty good offense. I think the Reds can handle them, but let's not confuse Arizona with Pittsburgh, even in an analogy sort of way.