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View Full Version : Will Mes be ready to start 2011 in Cincinnati?



RedsFanInBama
07-16-2010, 01:30 AM
It took a little time, but the light has clearly come on for this guy. It seems like he will be ready for Louisville by the end of this season, then fighting for a job with the Reds next season. If you look at where Brian McCann (another high school catcher) was in his fourth pro season at the AA level:

198 PA, 166 AB, 27 R, 44 H, 13 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 26 RBI, .265/.359/.476

Versus what Mesoraco is doing right now in AA in his fourth pro season:

127 PA, 113 AB, 29 R, 34 H, 9 2B, 1 3B, 9 HR, 21 RBI, .301/.354/.637

It compares pretty favorably. McCann was a year younger and was called up to Atlanta about midway through that season, never playing a game in AAA. Is there any reason to think that Mes won't be ready to play at the major league level next season?

GIDP
07-16-2010, 01:42 AM
as much as I hope he does, I cant see him being up for the start of 2011. That seems like such a massive jump considering they didnt even let Bruce make that jump. Then again its a different GM running the show now.

I'm completely guessing but Im going to say mid 2011 at the earliest depending on injuries. A strong finish and the same big numbers in AAA might make me revisit my thoughts.

His power is absolutely silly so far this year.

RedsFanInBama
07-16-2010, 01:47 AM
The one thing that doesn't compare well to McCann is the strikeout-to-walk ratio. Mesoraco this season is at 54 K's and 28 BB (and 25 K's to just 9 BB in AA). McCann was 26 K's to 25 BB in his AA season. That ability to make contact and to take walks is probably a big part of why he never had any major growing pains at the major league level.

dougdirt
07-16-2010, 01:47 AM
I don't think the Reds are going down that road. I bet he spends a lot of 2011 in AAA.

RedsFanInBama
07-16-2010, 01:50 AM
Well, whenever he does come up I assume it will be to take the job every day?

GIDP
07-16-2010, 01:53 AM
Dont most players struggle with K:bb for a bit once they change levels?

GIDP
07-16-2010, 01:56 AM
Well, whenever he does come up I assume it will be to take the job every day?

Unless Hannigan goes somewhere I dont see them going full bore Mes starting. I see him getting the treatment Hanny got last season, with maybe a little bit more playing time.

RedsFanInBama
07-16-2010, 02:02 AM
Whenever it does happen, I think they'll be much more inclined to make sure Mesoraco gets in the lineup than they were Hanigan. It's hard to ask a guy that you want to be your catcher of the future to continue to develop without consistent playing time. To me that means no less than three out of every five games, preferably more.

Nothing against Hanigan, who I like. I just think the kid has all-star potential.

fearofpopvol1
07-16-2010, 02:03 AM
I would not want him to START 2011 in Cincinnati. I don't even want him starting AAA until the beginning of 2011.

My hope for him is for him to start AAA in 2011 and if he has a great year down there, for him to get a September call-up next season.

GIDP
07-16-2010, 02:07 AM
Whenever it does happen, I think they'll be much more inclined to make sure Mesoraco gets in the lineup than they were Hanigan. It's hard to ask a guy that you want to be your catcher of the future to continue to develop without consistent playing time. To me that means no less than three out of every five games, preferably more.

Nothing against Hanigan, who I like. I just think the kid has all-star potential.

No doubt about it that Hanigan has less potential, I do see him being the vet to the rook just like Ramon was to Hanny. I think Devin will get more playing time than Ryan did if thats how it lays out. I'm guessing Hanny is traded by the time he reaches his 2nd year of arbitration.

dougdirt
07-16-2010, 02:09 AM
I would not want him to START 2011 in Cincinnati. I don't even want him starting AAA until the beginning of 2011.

My hope for him is for him to start AAA in 2011 and if he has a great year down there, for him to get a September call-up next season.

Ideally I would agree with most of this, though I wouldn't have an issue if he spent the last 2-3 weeks in AAA if Louisville is making a run at 2nd place (only 3 games back right now). I figure that if the Reds catchers can stay healthy next year, your plan will be followed. But if the starter goes down and he is still hitting next season, that we could see him sooner than September.

muddie
07-16-2010, 03:21 AM
I don't think the Reds are going down that road. I bet he spends a lot of 2011 in AAA.

I would hope he does. He did get an opposite field shot last night.

camisadelgolf
07-16-2010, 11:14 AM
The Reds are going to add him to the 40-man roster in the off-season anyway, so I could see him getting a September call-up. If he tears the cover off the ball in spring training while there's an injury to Hanigan or whomever Hernandez' replacement will be, I could see him starting 2011 with the big club. But like Doug said, expect him to get plenty of time in AAA next year.

Hoosier Red
07-16-2010, 11:24 AM
I was going to ask. What's Hernandez' situation for next year? A team option correct? If it's not unreasonable I may be inclined for the Reds to pick that up.

camisadelgolf
07-16-2010, 12:23 PM
I was going to ask. What's Hernandez' situation for next year? A team option correct? If it's not unreasonable I may be inclined for the Reds to pick that up.
It's a vesting option. If he plays 120 games, he will be with the Reds next year. If not, he is due to become a free agent.

REDblooded
07-16-2010, 12:32 PM
I definitely want to see him spend the rest of the season in AA... Would love for him to continue to gain confidence in his abilities in the hope that it propels his desire (don't think that's an issue though with his make-up) to continue to work hard in the offseason to improve...

fearofpopvol1
07-16-2010, 04:56 PM
I'd actually be in favor of the Reds keeping Hernandez through next year (assuming he's healthy). He was having a good year this year and it would give Mez time to develop in AAA next year.

nemesis
07-16-2010, 06:02 PM
I'd actually be in favor of the Reds keeping Hernandez through next year (assuming he's healthy). He was having a good year this year and it would give Mez time to develop in AAA next year.

As solid as Hernandez has been, he is defiantly on a hard downward slope. I'd rather see Castillo and his versatility as the back-up catcher next year. It's a one year stop gap until Mesaraco is ready.

I'd also like to see Heisey in LF, Sutton on the Bench, Cozart at SS, Dorn as the LH PH, Frazier as the Super-Sub, Sappelt and Perez as the 4th and 5th OF's and Wood in the 5 man rotation going into 2011.

fearofpopvol1
07-16-2010, 10:11 PM
As solid as Hernandez has been, he is defiantly on a hard downward slope. I'd rather see Castillo and his versatility as the back-up catcher next year. It's a one year stop gap until Mesaraco is ready.


I must respectfully disagree. Have you watched Castillo receive? He's not so great. Hernandez is a better option behind the dish IMO.

REDblooded
07-16-2010, 11:02 PM
Today's BA hot sheet chat


Devin (Cincinatti): Do you think Devin Mesoraco starts next season as Cincy's starting catcher? After strugiling for 2 years, hes finally putting together an unbelievable season.


Ben Badler: I think that's probably a little aggressive. Triple-A, most likely

mth123
07-17-2010, 05:42 AM
I must respectfully disagree. Have you watched Castillo receive? He's not so great. Hernandez is a better option behind the dish IMO.

Hernandez' option is for $3.25 Million. I think that is a little pricey for a team with a budget problem. I agree that Castillo is not the answer. For the money, I'd just go with Corky Miller for about $500K. As far as handling/developing a staff with kids like Leake, Wood, Cueto (still a kid IMO), Bailey (also still a kid), Maloney, Lecure, Chapman, Del Rosario, Smith, Ondrusek and maybe eventually Valiquette and Joseph, Corky may be the best choice. Mes will probably be ready at some point in 2011 (I'm wondering about a June or so post super two date time frame) and paying for a guy who could fall off a cliff seems or a poor use of a limited budget with the probable catcher of the future about to arrive. The key will be signing another vet for AAA to provide added insurance and to serve as a mentor to Mes and afterward Grandal and others for the mental side. Possibly there is another cheap vet similar to Corky from a catching mentoring/standpoint (not Ramon for $3.25 Million) for the big leagues and Corky can be that AAA insurance mentor guy.

Pass on Ramon, go with Miller and Hanigan in the big leagues, call-up Mes mid 2011 and have another vet at Lousiville for depth and develpmental purposes. Maybe keep Castillo as a supersub, 3rd catcher type (think Javy) but guys like Denove and Yarborough can walk as 6 year free agents.

Majors - Hanigan/Miller with Mes at some point
AAA - Mes/Vet with Castillo as a 3rd man
AA - Coddington/Soto maybe Grandal at some point
A+ - Grandal/Fleury
A- Weems/Barnhart

Guys like McMurray, Manz, Wideman, etc. can fit in where needed. The vets (including Corky) should be told they are for depth and development and brought in under those conditions which will allow the team to move them up and down to work with whoever the team wants to pair them with. Guys like Miller are guys with a future on the coaching/managerial side and the Reds should be up-font that these mentor roles are a step in that direction and sign them under those conditions.

nemesis
07-17-2010, 10:20 AM
I must respectfully disagree. Have you watched Castillo receive? He's not so great. Hernandez is a better option behind the dish IMO.

I know he isn't the best behind the dish. Maybe Corky is the better solution. Hanigan Catching 100+ games next year shouldn't be to far out of the realm of possibility. Corky for 20 and Mez for the 30 or 40 other games as a late June break in sounds about right. Then going 50/50 in 2012 and Mez full time in 2013 or splitting with Grandal. One could switch to 1B if Votto walks down the line.

Mario-Rijo
07-17-2010, 10:30 AM
I'm sure we could do better than Corky for 2011, in fact I wouldn't even bring Mes up until September '11 at best and frankly that's usually the F.O.'s MO, slow and easy. Re-sign Corky for AAA and he and Mes could share the duties with Mes having someones brain to pick all season.

Here's the FA catchers available after the season (Ramon is toast IMO).




* - player whose current contract includes 2011 option

Catchers
Josh Bard SEA
John Buck TOR
Ramon Hernandez CIN *
Gerald Laird DET
Victor Martinez BOS
Joe Mauer MIN
Miguel Olivo COL *
A.J. Pierzynski CWS
David Ross ATL
Yorvit Torrealba SD *
Jason Varitek BOS
Gregg Zaun MIL *

mth123
07-17-2010, 10:41 AM
I'm sure we could do better than Corky for 2011, in fact I wouldn't even bring Mes up until September '11 at best and frankly that's usually the F.O.'s MO, slow and easy. Re-sign Corky for AAA and he and Mes could share the duties with Mes having someones brain to pick all season.

Here's the FA catchers available after the season (Ramon is toast IMO).

I don't think the team can afford $3 Million though. Given that the primary objective is getting the young starters to realize their potential, the only guys on that list that really interest me are Varitek (no way), Torrealba and Laird. Josh Bard maybe, but I'd rather have Corky. Not sure what Laird would cost but the others are likely too expensive.

Mauer is no longer available BTW .

Don't want Ross or Zaun. Olivo would be a nice bat, but he may not be the right guy for the arms and he's probably in the $6 Million range now. Martinez and Buck are more extreme versions of Olivo.

Pierzynski would be good if the Reds could afford him and I'm guessing they can't. I'm not a big Ramon fan, but he'd be OK for a Million or so, but at $3.5 I'd pass and save it for upgrading from Arroyo to a true ace.

If nothing works, Hanigan and Miller with Mes in June is a viable plan IMO.

Scrap Irony
07-17-2010, 11:28 AM
What budget constraints, mth? If Harang and Hernandez are let go, the Reds will have roughly $13 million to spend and few holes to spend it on.

(I'm assuming the duo of Heisey and Gomes man LF, the starting rotation will remain fairly stagnant, and the bullpen is strengtened from within-- none of which are far-fetched at all. Too, arbitration is also taken care of.)

That should open the way for a fairly expensive catching option on a one or two-year deal. (I'd target Victor Martinez, personally, as his offense makes the team monstrous with the bat.)

Phillips 2B
Heisey LF
Votto 1B
Martinez C
Rolen 3B
Bruce RF
Stubbs CF
Janish SS

If Boston really likes Martinez-- and he likes Boston-- I'd settle for Olivo or Buck and put them in the six hole while moving everyone else one spot.

None of these options would cost $13 million. Or close.

sagevic
07-17-2010, 11:43 AM
I don't think Hernandez gets to 120 games. The club passes on his option and they work something out. They also don't offer Corky arbitration, and then work something out with him to repeat in AAA. Unless something cataclysmic happens, those are the back-up catching plans for 2010 right now.

Hannigan can be an elite defensive catcher. And he can probably lead the position in Batting AVG. and OPS in the National League. He probably can't stay off the disabled list enough to qualify. He's turning 30, and has been pretty banged up the last two years already. He is a very good contact hitter, and he has a good eye, but is still working on hitting the ball to all fields with any power. If he can do that, then he is legit. I don't think the Reds expect that to happen.

Mes comes up when he's ready. He isn't close yet. He is a great thrower and is having a phenomenal year at the plate, but he has a passed ball problem to correct, and needs to develop better plate discipline since he will likely start his career hitting eigth in the line-up. You need to be able to draw walks when you hit in front of the pitcher.

My guess is Denove is brought back to the camp next year, and he and Mesaroco compete for the other slot opposite Miller in AAA. If Mes falters, or something happens to a veteran catcher out of the gate, Denove stays. Otherwise he is probably released.

On a side note, it's a shame that Yarbrough waited until the first half of this season to show what he can do with the bat. A solid receiver who hits from the left side of the plate is a valuable guy to have. It just came too late so he's not going to be on the 40 Man roster and he too will be gone this offseason.

fearofpopvol1
07-17-2010, 01:21 PM
Hernandez' option is for $3.25 Million. I think that is a little pricey for a team with a budget problem. I agree that Castillo is not the answer. For the money, I'd just go with Corky Miller for about $500K. As far as handling/developing a staff with kids like Leake, Wood, Cueto (still a kid IMO), Bailey (also still a kid), Maloney, Lecure, Chapman, Del Rosario, Smith, Ondrusek and maybe eventually Valiquette and Joseph, Corky may be the best choice. Mes will probably be ready at some point in 2011 (I'm wondering about a June or so post super two date time frame) and paying for a guy who could fall off a cliff seems or a poor use of a limited budget with the probable catcher of the future about to arrive. The key will be signing another vet for AAA to provide added insurance and to serve as a mentor to Mes and afterward Grandal and others for the mental side. Possibly there is another cheap vet similar to Corky from a catching mentoring/standpoint (not Ramon for $3.25 Million) for the big leagues and Corky can be that AAA insurance mentor guy.

Pass on Ramon, go with Miller and Hanigan in the big leagues, call-up Mes mid 2011 and have another vet at Lousiville for depth and develpmental purposes. Maybe keep Castillo as a supersub, 3rd catcher type (think Javy) but guys like Denove and Yarborough can walk as 6 year free agents.

Majors - Hanigan/Miller with Mes at some point
AAA - Mes/Vet with Castillo as a 3rd man
AA - Coddington/Soto maybe Grandal at some point
A+ - Grandal/Fleury
A- Weems/Barnhart

Guys like McMurray, Manz, Wideman, etc. can fit in where needed. The vets (including Corky) should be told they are for depth and development and brought in under those conditions which will allow the team to move them up and down to work with whoever the team wants to pair them with. Guys like Miller are guys with a future on the coaching/managerial side and the Reds should be up-font that these mentor roles are a step in that direction and sign them under those conditions.

$3.25M is a little pricey, but I don't think his option will vest. So, maybe the Reds can get him to extend for less. I don't think they can get him for $1M, but I think $2M is realistic, which I am fine with. I think counting on Hanigan and Miller as a tandem is a pretty bad idea. Hernandez has been hovering 1.5 WAR over the last few seasons (including this year). Corky Miller by contrast has never even touched 1 WAR over his entire career. Hernandez has definitely earned what he is being paid.

I also believe Mez will not see Cincy until August/September at the earliest next year.

mth123
07-17-2010, 01:58 PM
If Harang, Arroyo, Hernandez, Rhodes, Lincoln and Cabrera are all let go, that is about $33.5 Million freed up. $5 Million goes to option buy-outs for Harang, Arroyo and Hernandez. Phillips gets a $4.25 Million Raise. Masset, Alonso and Gomes have combined raises for another $1.5 Million. That leaves $22.5 Million. Votto, Cueto and Bruce are all arb eligible (so is Volquez) that will eat up at least $10 Million. Even if the Reds skip trying to upgrade the TOR and simply keep Arroyo, you would avoid his $2 Million buy-out, and leave $14.5 Million, but Arroyo will most likely meet the IP clause in his option making it worth $13 Million. That leaves $1.5 Million to address Catcher, SS, and a replacement for Rhodes.

I'd rather spend it on a pitcher. I think Janish/Cozart will need to man SS and they can't really afford more than $1 Million for a Catcher. Mes needs to be in the plan and I wouldn't spend much on somebody to hold the fort.

mth123
07-17-2010, 02:27 PM
$3.25M is a little pricey, but I don't think his option will vest. So, maybe the Reds can get him to extend for less. I don't think they can get him for $1M, but I think $2M is realistic, which I am fine with. I think counting on Hanigan and Miller as a tandem is a pretty bad idea. Hernandez has been hovering 1.5 WAR over the last few seasons (including this year). Corky Miller by contrast has never even touched 1 WAR over his entire career. Hernandez has definitely earned what he is being paid.

I also believe Mez will not see Cincy until August/September at the earliest next year.

But Miller seems to be head and shoulders above Hernandez as far as working with the young staff goes and will be easy to re-assign in the system when Mes is ready. Hernandez likely blocks Mes and makes the team worse than a couple months of Miller working with the arms and 3 or 4 moths of Mes providing superior offense and defense to what Hernandez provides.

WAR doesn't capture any of that.

fearofpopvol1
07-17-2010, 05:11 PM
But Miller seems to be head and shoulders above Hernandez as far as working with the young staff goes and will be easy to re-assign in the system when Mes is ready. Hernandez likely blocks Mes and makes the team worse than a couple months of Miller working with the arms and 3 or 4 moths of Mes providing superior offense and defense to what Hernandez provides.

WAR doesn't capture any of that.

Personally, I think these sorts of things about "working with the young staff" are vastly overrated. I want the best team on the field next year and that means Hernandez > Miller. Again, I think we disagree on when Mez will/should be ready. I don't think it will/should be until September, which means he would not be blocked.

nemesis
07-17-2010, 05:11 PM
But Miller seems to be head and shoulders above Hernandez as far as working with the young staff goes and will be easy to re-assign in the system when Mes is ready. Hernandez likely blocks Mes and makes the team worse than a couple months of Miller working with the arms and 3 or 4 moths of Mes providing superior offense and defense to what Hernandez provides.

WAR doesn't capture any of that.

Agreed. There is no way Dusty would bench Hernandez enough to allow Mesoraco enough playing time to be worth the call up. Miller on the other hand can be moved because of lack of financial commitment and has no personal, professional ego that would get in his way.

Although, would Miller be better served as the AAA catcher to work with Mesoraco for the first half of the season to better prepare him for the ML routine?

GIDP
07-17-2010, 05:14 PM
I suggest the Reds budget for catcher next year isnt as high hopefully. Getting Hernandez back is fine but 3 million for Ramon again? Seems a bit excessive.

corkedbat
07-17-2010, 05:20 PM
If Mes can force his way onto the team in ST, great, but I would have other catching options planned instead. Unless he absolutely kicks the door in, he starts 2011 at L'Ville.

mth123
07-17-2010, 05:21 PM
Agreed. There is no way Dusty would bench Hernandez enough to allow Mesoraco enough playing time to be worth the call up. Miller on the other hand can be moved because of lack of financial commitment and has no personal, professional ego that would get in his way.

Although, would Miller be better served as the AAA catcher to work with Mesoraco for the first half of the season to better prepare him for the ML routine?

I think Miller would be perfect as the AAA catcher, but I just don't think the Reds can afford a top catcher to bide his time while Mes gets ready. If the Reds bring in a cheap one, they could get a real harmful guy who would harm the development of the young staff. If they have to go cheap, just go with Miller and don't take the chance on a crummy receiver making these guys go backwards.

I wouldn't want the team to go the route of say Javy Valentin or David Ross simply because they are cheap. If Hernandez comes back for a Million or so and Miller can be the mentor in AAA, great. If Hernandez wants the $3 Million his good so far year will command, he's not worth it forcing the Reds to skimp on a guy to replace Rhodes.

People may not get the budget crunch for 2011, but its real and Jay Bruce qualifying as a Super Two probably eats the $3 Million or so in payflex that the Reds may have had. If the team is going to raise payroll a little, I'd like to see them pursue Oswalt or some other TOR pitcher instead of Arroyo and find a way to bring back Rhodes or get a comparable replacement before giving $3 Million to Ramon. Other guys will probably want a longer term deal and whether you think Mes is coming in June, August or 2012, putting resources into a catcher makes no sense to me at all given the raises already in place and likely due to Votto, Cueto, Bruce and Volquez.

RedsFanInBama
07-17-2010, 09:14 PM
he will likely start his career hitting eigth in the line-up.

Why?

Redmachine2003
07-17-2010, 09:29 PM
Why?

With the Reds current line up who would he hit in front of?

dougdirt
07-17-2010, 09:32 PM
With the Reds current line up who would he hit in front of?

The actual answer was 'That is where the catcher hits, dude'. To be honest though, I think it depends how he is hitting when he gets up here. But even today, I would probably bat him in front of Orlando Cabrera and his weak stick.

RedsFanInBama
07-17-2010, 09:34 PM
With the Reds current line up who would he hit in front of?

He's not on the Reds team right now. We'll have to see what he's hitting like when the time comes and what the lineup looks like then, but I just can't see a guy hitting like that batting eighth.

corkedbat
07-17-2010, 10:13 PM
He's not on the Reds team right now. We'll have to see what he's hitting like when the time comes and what the lineup looks like then, but I just can't see a guy hitting like that batting eighth.

I'd hit him 7th in front of SS (Cabrera/Janish/Cozart) and if he starts to really produce, I'd move him in front of Stubbs to see if I couldn't get better pitches for Bruce.

GIDP
07-17-2010, 10:43 PM
If he hits with a .275/.330/.500 ish line you hit him no lower than 5th.

bellhead
07-17-2010, 10:50 PM
I think Miller would be perfect as the AAA catcher, but I just don't think the Reds can afford a top catcher to bide his time while Mes gets ready. If the Reds bring in a cheap one, they could get a real harmful guy who would harm the development of the young staff. If they have to go cheap, just go with Miller and don't take the chance on a crummy receiver making these guys go backwards.


For me this is the perfect idea and scene. Ask Corky to come back at the MLB minimum to work with Mes in AAA and ask him to tutor and work with him. As the jump now is more mental than physical. You don't want a burned out poisoned vet. who is ticked off about sharing time with the golden boy. Corky will know his job and he looks like the type of guy who can and would knock him down a peg or two if his ego gets out of hand.

REDblooded
07-18-2010, 01:37 AM
to be 100% honest... I'm just happy that we're finally having this convo...

lollipopcurve
07-18-2010, 07:41 AM
he looks like the type of guy who can and would knock him down a peg or two if his ego gets out of hand.

All reports indicate Mesoraco is not that kind of kid. I suggest listening to the interview with him on the Redleg Nation site if you want to get a sense of what he's like.

mth123
07-18-2010, 08:00 AM
I'd hit him 7th in front of SS (Cabrera/Janish/Cozart) and if he starts to really produce, I'd move him in front of Stubbs to see if I couldn't get better pitches for Bruce.

Just a little dreaming here:

Phillips 2B
Bruce RF
Votto 1B
Rolen 3B
Gomes/Heisey/Francisco/Dorn LF
Mesoraco/Hanigan C
Stubbs CF
Cozart/Janish SS

Maybe swap Stubbs and Bruce when a lefty is on the mound. If Rolen doesn't enjoy another big power year and Bruce continues to develop, maybe he and Bruce flip-flop.

Mario-Rijo
07-18-2010, 03:06 PM
If Harang, Arroyo, Hernandez, Rhodes, Lincoln and Cabrera are all let go, that is about $33.5 Million freed up. $5 Million goes to option buy-outs for Harang, Arroyo and Hernandez. Phillips gets a $4.25 Million Raise. Masset, Alonso and Gomes have combined raises for another $1.5 Million. That leaves $22.5 Million. Votto, Cueto and Bruce are all arb eligible (so is Volquez) that will eat up at least $10 Million. Even if the Reds skip trying to upgrade the TOR and simply keep Arroyo, you would avoid his $2 Million buy-out, and leave $14.5 Million, but Arroyo will most likely meet the IP clause in his option making it worth $13 Million. That leaves $1.5 Million to address Catcher, SS, and a replacement for Rhodes.

I'd rather spend it on a pitcher. I think Janish/Cozart will need to man SS and they can't really afford more than $1 Million for a Catcher. Mes needs to be in the plan and I wouldn't spend much on somebody to hold the fort.

This of course is all assuming the payroll isn't raised, I find it hard to believe Bob would risk alienating the fans by not raising it at least a bit after what should be an improved attendance this season. I think it's perfectly reasonable to expect a small bump to like 80 million at least.

However the one thing that would scare me a bit is the increases for the arb. eligible types. 10 million seems to me a bit conservative. But I also wouldn't neccessarily expect Gomes to be back even though he's one of those guys who most just love him being on the team. I've even come around on him a bit as he has improved this past offseason IMO. The one other thing that we might have to expect is BP or Coco being dealt in the offseason, especially if the Reds have any designs on retaining Arroyo or adding a Haren or similiar type.

How much does this team make next season? And isn't it hypothetically a better team? Problem is how might one go about dealing Cordero?

C - Olivo
1B - Votto
2B - BP
3B - Rolen
SS - Cozart
LF - Alonso
CF - Stubbs
RF - Bruce

OF - Dickerson
OF - Heisey
IF - Janish
IF - Sutton/Frazier
C - Hanigan

Volquez
Leake
Cueto
Wood
Bailey/Chapman/Maloney/LeCure

Rhodes
Masset
Burton (I'm still holding out hope he returns to his former self)
Bray
Smith/Joseph
Ondrusek
Owings

Apologize for hijacking the thread, just trying to show my thinking to why we can afford a good catcher (let alone a better stop gap than Corky) on a 1 year deal in many ways thus allowing Mes to stay put and get enough seasoning. I just don't think he will see Cincy until September of '11 sans a spat of injuries.

mth123
07-18-2010, 03:54 PM
This of course is all assuming the payroll isn't raised, I find it hard to believe Bob would risk alienating the fans by not raising it at least a bit after what should be an improved attendance this season. I think it's perfectly reasonable to expect a small bump to like 80 million at least.

However the one thing that would scare me a bit is the increases for the arb. eligible types. 10 million seems to me a bit conservative. But I also wouldn't neccessarily expect Gomes to be back even though he's one of those guys who most just love him being on the team. I've even come around on him a bit as he has improved this past offseason IMO. The one other thing that we might have to expect is BP or Coco being dealt in the offseason, especially if the Reds have any designs on retaining Arroyo or adding a Haren or similiar type.

How much does this team make next season? And isn't it hypothetically a better team? Problem is how might one go about dealing Cordero?

C - Olivo
1B - Votto
2B - BP
3B - Rolen
SS - Cozart
LF - Alonso
CF - Stubbs
RF - Bruce

OF - Dickerson
OF - Heisey
IF - Janish
IF - Sutton/Frazier
C - Hanigan

Volquez
Leake
Cueto
Wood
Bailey/Chapman/Maloney/LeCure

Rhodes
Masset
Burton (I'm still holding out hope he returns to his former self)
Bray
Smith/Joseph
Ondrusek
Owings

Apologize for hijacking the thread, just trying to show my thinking to why we can afford a good catcher (let alone a better stop gap than Corky) on a 1 year deal in many ways thus allowing Mes to stay put and get enough seasoning. I just don't think he will see Cincy until September of '11 sans a spat of injuries.

I'd say that roster would cost around $55 Million or so. Add in the buy-outs and covering for DL guys and its at about $60 Million with no CoCo or vet starter. Even if they push to $80 Million, they can't afford it w/o dealing Coco and going with so many young starters is just too risky IMO. Had Bailey established himself as many enviosined, they may be able to get by with a core threesome of Volqeuz, Cueto and Bailey. The others are guys who we shouldn't count on and now Bailey needs to be considered part of that group. For the Reds to be taken seriously, they need at least one established arm who would be a guy in a play-off caliber rotation.

Olivo would cost more than $5 Million with the year he's having and probably would want more than 1 year. With Mes coming and another first rounder in the organization, I just don't see investing in more than a stopgap and if they are going to go with a cheap guy to hold the spot for a couple months, then I can't see going with somebody who expects more, might be iffy as far as working with these young arms and would block Mes. Miller is flawed for sure, but he will be a positive for the young arms (probably more so than anyone on the market), will work cheap and won't block anyone. Sometimes sticking with the flaws you know about is a better idea. If the team thinks that Mes just won't be ready until 2012, than they should get someone better, but if they are just waiting until June for the Super Two date to pass (which is what I think they should do unless Mes just falls apart) then a couple real cheap vets for the majors and AAA seems like the best idea to me.

Mario-Rijo
07-18-2010, 03:59 PM
I'd say that roster would cost around $55 Million or so. Add in the buy-outs and covering for DL guys and its at about $60 Million with no CoCo or vet starter. Even if they push to $80 Million, they can't afford it w/o dealing Coco and going with so many young starters is just too risky IMO. Had Bailey established himself as many enviosined, they may be able to get by with a core threesome of Volqeuz, Cueto and Bailey. The others are guys who we shouldn't count on and now Bailey needs to be considered part of that group. For the Reds to be taken seriously, they need at least one established arm who would be a guy in a play-off caliber rotation.

Olivo would cost more than $5 Million with the year he's having and probably would want more than 1 year. With Mes coming and another first rounder in the organization, I just don't see investing in more than a stopgap and if they are going to go with a cheap guy to hold the spot for a couple months, then I can't see going with somebody who expects more, might be iffy as far as working with these young arms and would block Mes. Miller is flawed for sure, but he will be a positive for the young arms (probably more so than anyone on the market), will work cheap and won't block anyone. Sometimes sticking with the flaws you know about is a better idea. If the team thinks that Mes just won't be ready until 2012, than they should get someone better, but if they are just waiting until June for the Super Two date to pass (which is what I think they should do unless Mes just falls apart) then a couple real cheap vets for the majors and AAA seems like the best idea to me.

Aren't we rushing him though if he makes the big league club 1 year after playing in High-A and just finally breaking thru? Color me skeptical that he can even make this club prior to mid season at the absolute best.

mth123
07-18-2010, 04:04 PM
Aren't we rushing him though if he makes the big league club 1 year after playing in High-A and just finally breaking thru? Color me skeptical that he can even make this club prior to mid season at the absolute best.

Rushing him is better than skimping on the pitching staff IMO. They'll still have Hanigan and if they bring in another AAAA type in addition to Corky they'll be covered IMO. They probably still have Castillo as a guy who could catch some as well if injuries hit.

dougdirt
07-18-2010, 04:05 PM
Aren't we rushing him though if he makes the big league club 1 year after playing in High-A and just finally breaking thru? Color me skeptical that he can even make this club prior to mid season at the absolute best.

Rushing him in terms of 'time', maybe. Rushing him in terms of his ability to play in the majors, we don't really know yet.

REDblooded
07-18-2010, 08:33 PM
Rushing him in terms of 'time', maybe. Rushing him in terms of his ability to play in the majors, we don't really know yet.

If you don't know, than the answer is yes...

kfm
07-18-2010, 08:53 PM
If you don't know, than the answer is yes...

You never really know until you see how a guy performs.

dougdirt
07-19-2010, 01:27 AM
If you don't know, than the answer is yes...

No one knows until that time gets here, then fastforward a year or two. Some guys can look as polished as they come and still not make a nice transition to the majors. Some guys don't look nearly as polished, but transition much better. We just won't know until we know.

GIDP
07-19-2010, 03:04 AM
Cueto was rushed time wise.
Votto wasn't.
Stubbs was rushed developmental wise, and wasnt time wise.

You cant know anything until they play in the majors.

Kingspoint
07-19-2010, 04:44 AM
Mesoraco still has some fundamentals to develop behind the plate, and next season he'll need to finish that work in the Minors.

Mario-Rijo
07-19-2010, 05:03 AM
Cueto was rushed time wise.
Votto wasn't.
Stubbs was rushed developmental wise, and wasnt time wise.

You cant know anything until they play in the majors.

You don't think we had a pretty fair idea of what to expect with those guys at the time they were brought up? Certainly every player brought up has questions but in the back of our mind we know when is too soon if it's blatant. And I think in Mes' case it is being blatant thinking he will be a fully developed major leaguer come this time next year. Heck I think it's pushing it to expect him up and ready in September next year. But I think time wise that's the earliest point that makes any sense at all.

mth123
07-19-2010, 06:27 AM
You don't think we had a pretty fair idea of what to expect with those guys at the time they were brought up? Certainly every player brought up has questions but in the back of our mind we know when is too soon if it's blatant. And I think in Mes' case it is being blatant thinking he will be a fully developed major leaguer come this time next year. Heck I think it's pushing it to expect him up and ready in September next year. But I think time wise that's the earliest point that makes any sense at all.

Some times it comes quickly. This year isn't over and he's advancing every day. A stint in the AFL and a couple months at AAA might be enough. I think the AFL makes a lot of sense. If Mes struggles there, it may be an indication of which direction the team should head in the off-season. If he succeeds, go the cheap route and wait for Mes mid-season. If he struggles, plan on 2011 in AAA and get a better more costly guy, but the Reds may need to deal some one to afford it.

Mesoraco isn't a pitcher. Challenging a bat when the major league team has a need is a lot different than promoting a starting pitcher too quickly. The Reds could probably get a veteran catcher in the $3 or $4 Million range for 2011, but I'm betting Cordero isn't going anywhere and and the staff needs another $15 Million or so to bring back Arroyo and Rhodes or to secure replacements or upgrades. That means the payroll would need to go to the $85 Million range, the team goes cheap at SS and C where they have young players on the cusp or they need to deal one of the arb guys for cheap players. Which one do we give-up for cheapies? Cueto? Votto? Bruce? Volquez? They may be able to unload Masset and Gomes to save enough for a mediocre vet to catch for a year, but do you want to let Masset get away when they have bodies in house that may be ready? Remember that Hanigan is already on board and can be the main guy until Mes arrives.

For my money, I'd plan on Cozart and Mesoraco being large contributors in 2011 and not spend money in those areas. If I could acquire another young middle infielder with some potential and preferably a lefty bat, I'd look into that, but I would not sign a retread catcher for $3 or $4 Million.

GIDP
07-19-2010, 11:39 AM
You don't think we had a pretty fair idea of what to expect with those guys at the time they were brought up? Certainly every player brought up has questions but in the back of our mind we know when is too soon if it's blatant. And I think in Mes' case it is being blatant thinking he will be a fully developed major leaguer come this time next year. Heck I think it's pushing it to expect him up and ready in September next year. But I think time wise that's the earliest point that makes any sense at all.

I would expect Mes to strike out around 18% of the time, and walk 10% of the time and hit for power. Hes consistently done 2 of those things since he's been in the minors and hes hit for power 2 straight years, even though the FSL hid some of it in 2009.

No doubt Mes would be rushed. I wouldnt bring him up right now but lets say he finishes the year in AAA and was raking still, comes to spring and hits well again, would it be rushing him? Honestly it wouldn't be all that different than when they brought Cueto to the majors.

dougdirt
07-19-2010, 01:29 PM
The amount of guys fully MLB ready at 22, which Mesoraco will be for half of next season, isn't a high number. The number of guys who can help an MLB team out at 22 is a lot higher. There is quite a difference between the two types of players.

Hoosier Red
07-19-2010, 04:25 PM
Doug,

Do you think it would be detrimental to Mesaraco's development to come up sit 5 days a week, or is there a positive in that mostly the catcher's development is mental. If he comes up talks to the pitching coach every day but only plays once or twice a week, he may be able to learn and progress?

dougdirt
07-19-2010, 04:46 PM
Doug,

Do you think it would be detrimental to Mesaraco's development to come up sit 5 days a week, or is there a positive in that mostly the catcher's development is mental. If he comes up talks to the pitching coach every day but only plays once or twice a week, he may be able to learn and progress?

No way do you do that.

camisadelgolf
07-19-2010, 04:55 PM
You could consider it in September since the minor league post season will be done anyway.

RedsFanInBama
07-19-2010, 05:46 PM
You could consider it in September since the minor league post season will be done anyway.

If we're talking Sept. 2011, I'd want him catching a lot if the Reds are out of contention. If the Reds aren't out of contention and his first taste is a September call-up, I think he'd catch maybe once a week at most.

camisadelgolf
07-19-2010, 07:20 PM
If we're talking Sept. 2011, I'd want him catching a lot if the Reds are out of contention. If the Reds aren't out of contention and his first taste is a September call-up, I think he'd catch maybe once a week at most.
I can't imagine Mesoraco being much worse than Corky Miller. If Hernandez or Hanigan were injured, I really wouldn't have a problem with Mesoraco getting a lot of those at-bats in September.

REDblooded
07-19-2010, 08:13 PM
One thing I WOULD consider, is getting him to AAA and have him catching Aroldis as much as possible... Would seem that he would get all of the passed-ball practice that he needs...

fearofpopvol1
07-19-2010, 08:26 PM
I can't imagine Mesoraco being much worse than Corky Miller. If Hernandez or Hanigan were injured, I really wouldn't have a problem with Mesoraco getting a lot of those at-bats in September.

Corky Miller's bat is awful, but he's not that bad as a receiver. No way would I want Mez being called on when we're in a pennant race. He's improving, but he's still developing and that's just asking too much IMO.

Kingspoint
07-19-2010, 08:30 PM
Mez with a throwing error on a base-stealing attempt leading to a run being scored in tonight's game.

There's plenty of work that Mesoraco has to do in the Minors still.

Look for Mez in 2012. That was his original projection when he was drafted and he's still on that pace. Fortunately, he's looking like he might even be that combination of "great defense" and "great offense".

RedsFanInBama
07-20-2010, 10:05 AM
I can't imagine Mesoraco being much worse than Corky Miller. If Hernandez or Hanigan were injured, I really wouldn't have a problem with Mesoraco getting a lot of those at-bats in September.

What are we talking about here? 2010? I don't think Mesoraco is going to be here at all this season. If we're talking about 2011, I doubt Corky is still with the team in September.

RedsFanInBama
07-20-2010, 10:08 AM
Bad news: He's going to make errors in the big leagues, too, regardless of how much time he spends in the minors. It's going to happen.

camisadelgolf
07-20-2010, 11:07 AM
Yes, I'm talking about 2010. Whether he's sitting on the bench or playing once or twice a week, I really don't think it would hurt to call up Mesoraco in September, especially if Hernandez or Hanigan is hurt.

And why are you bringing up errors? You act like he's a slouch behind the plate. Sure, he's going to make errors--he's human, after all--but it's not like he's making a ton of errors right now. In fact, his fielding percentage is almost the same as Hanigan's this year. Besides, compensates for his errors with other facets of his game.

GIDP
07-20-2010, 11:11 AM
Yes, I'm talking about 2010. Whether he's sitting on the bench or playing once or twice a week, I really don't think it would hurt to call up Mesoraco in September, especially if Hernandez or Hanigan is hurt.

And why are you bringing up errors? You act like he's a slouch behind the plate. Sure, he's going to make errors--he's human, after all--but it's not like he's making a ton of errors right now. In fact, his fielding percentage is almost the same as Hanigan's this year. Besides, compensates for his errors with other facets of his game.

If Ramon or Hannigan is hurt I might be willing to bring him up, but thats a major jump that they havent done with anyone that I can remember. From A ball to the majors in a single season? Who was the last non pitcher the Reds did that with?

camisadelgolf
07-20-2010, 11:17 AM
If Ramon or Hannigan is hurt I might be willing to bring him up, but thats a major jump that they havent done with anyone that I can remember. From A ball to the majors in a single season? Who was the last non pitcher the Reds did that with?
Although it's not exactly a success story, I believe it was Miguel Perez. He only played two games in September, and the only reason he was up was because the minor league season was over. I really don't think it hurt the team nor his development.

GIDP
07-20-2010, 11:22 AM
Although it's not exactly a success story, I believe it was Miguel Perez. He only played two games in September, and the only reason he was up was because the minor league season was over. I really don't think it hurt the team nor his development.
Thanks for the name

I could be convinced, but I'd be reluctant. The fact that he has to go on the 40 man next year, I think, helps the case a little bit.

camisadelgolf
07-20-2010, 11:26 AM
Thanks for the name

I could be convinced, but I'd be reluctant. The fact that he has to go on the 40 man next year, I think, helps the case a little bit.
That's the only reason I'd consider it.

GIDP
07-20-2010, 11:31 AM
That's the only reason I'd consider it.

I certainly see the positives in letting him maybe get his feet wet, but after a long season, and the fact that he hasnt even been in AAA yet, makes me just say have a nice offseason and bring what you got this spring. Although it would be nice to see if he could maybe go into next year being a fix for the Ramon Hernandez problem.

I think we both know whats likely to happen though.

RedsFanInBama
07-20-2010, 02:09 PM
And why are you bringing up errors? You act like he's a slouch behind the plate. Sure, he's going to make errors--he's human, after all--but it's not like he's making a ton of errors right now. In fact, his fielding percentage is almost the same as Hanigan's this year. Besides, compensates for his errors with other facets of his game.

The errors comment was a response to Kingsport's post.

Hoosier Red
07-20-2010, 02:13 PM
No way do you do that.

I was suggesting for next year. That seems to be the question here. No I agree, but if he gets to AAA this year, and is deemed "ready" for the majors, is there any hindrance if he only plays twice a week?

RedsFanInBama
07-20-2010, 02:33 PM
I'm not doug but I don't think it would be smart at all to bring Mesoraco to the majors without knowing he is going to get the majority of the playing time. The lone exception maybe being a September call-up where the team is contending.

Mario-Rijo
07-20-2010, 05:35 PM
I would expect Mes to strike out around 18% of the time, and walk 10% of the time and hit for power. Hes consistently done 2 of those things since he's been in the minors and hes hit for power 2 straight years, even though the FSL hid some of it in 2009.

No doubt Mes would be rushed. I wouldnt bring him up right now but lets say he finishes the year in AAA and was raking still, comes to spring and hits well again, would it be rushing him? Honestly it wouldn't be all that different than when they brought Cueto to the majors.

I believe that he could always have a hiccup in his game offensively if he is rushed. Don't yet know what that hiccup might be but I think he would eventually be fine offensively (just not as good as he could be). The bigger issue for me is his defense i.e. the finer points of a catchers responsibilities. Would he be incomplete and how much would it affect him? I guess ultimately I am just against hindering his development in any way, I would like to see him reach his ceiling and I think the way that is accomplished is to allow him more than enough time down where the wins aren't as critical.