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nate
07-16-2010, 10:12 AM
Link (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/volquezs-return/):


It would be unreasonable for Cincinnati to expect Volquez to become a true ace for them, but he should become the best pitcher on the team, at least until Harang’s return. The fact that they’ve been able to hold first place until the cavalry could arrive is a great sign for the team. If Volquez can even be 75% of what he was in 2008, the Reds will be in excellent shape in their quest for the NL Central crown.

Ghosts of 1990
07-16-2010, 10:19 AM
I agree with this snippet. I don't think Volquez is the 2008 Volquez all year in 2010; maybe a start or two in late September against a team that has pretty much packed it in. But if he can just be solid and consistent and collect outs for six innings at a time and keep our offense in the game; he's a huge lift and a shot in the arm.

Coming off major surgery to hear that he's throwing hard again is really a testament to him either being a genetic freak or an extremely good work ethic or both.

Caveat Emperor
07-16-2010, 10:26 AM
At this point, if Volquez can simply be better than LeCure / Maloney, it's a net win for the ballclub. Anything above that is gravy, IMO.

Cedric
07-16-2010, 10:29 AM
The problem is that Volquez has always been effectively wild. He's going to be throwing high stress pitches almost every inning with his style.

Hopefully the Reds keep a keen eye to watch if he is overthrowing.

TheNext44
07-16-2010, 10:34 AM
The problem is that Volquez has always been effectively wild. He's going to be throwing high stress pitches almost every inning with his style.

Hopefully the Reds keep a keen eye to watch if he is overthrowing.

One of the benefits of Tommy John surgery is that the pitcher has to start from square one all over again, and this gives a coaching staff the ability to refine his mechanics. Just look at Bray this season compared to before the surgery.

Who knows if that happened with Volquez, but you are right that his delivery was a very high stress one, so here's hoping that the Reds coaching staff made some adjustments to it.

dfs
07-16-2010, 10:35 AM
"best pitcher on the team, at least until Harang's return?"

You know, I've been as stubborn as anybody in clinging to the notion that Aaron Harang is going to return to his 06-07 form, but I gave up earlier in this year.

Does anybody reading this think Harang is the Reds best pitcher?

TheNext44
07-16-2010, 10:52 AM
"best pitcher on the team, at least until Harang's return?"

You know, I've been as stubborn as anybody in clinging to the notion that Aaron Harang is going to return to his 06-07 form, but I gave up earlier in this year.

Does anybody reading this think Harang is the Reds best pitcher?

The guy just didn't do his research. The argument is that up until this year, Harang's peripherals (K/BB, GB/FB and HR/9) have been very close every year, which would lead one to believe that his higher ERA these past two and half seasons has been the result mostly of bad luck.

However, that really has not been the case, as RMR pointed out in a very good post about Harang. His peripherals especially his HR/9, have been getting worse , and his tERA, which judges a pitcher based on how hard his pitchers get hit, have been much higher these last two and half seasons.

Harang is still a decent pitcher, but just not close to the TOR arm he was three years ago.

edabbs44
07-16-2010, 10:59 AM
"best pitcher on the team, at least until Harang's return?"

You know, I've been as stubborn as anybody in clinging to the notion that Aaron Harang is going to return to his 06-07 form, but I gave up earlier in this year.

Does anybody reading this think Harang is the Reds best pitcher?

Yeah, that was a brutal snippet there. Not sure if he meant his return from the DL or his return from the couple of year sabbatical he's been on.

Oh, and Keith Law called and said that he disagrees as well.

TheNext44
07-16-2010, 11:04 AM
Yeah, that was a brutal snippet there. Not sure if he meant his return from the DL or his return from the couple of year sabbatical he's been on.

Oh, and Keith Law called and said that he disagrees as well.

Even if Harang does return to his old form, I still wouldn't put him ahead of Cueto, Arroyo or Leake. But those guy don't miss bats enough to impress some people.

nate
07-16-2010, 11:34 AM
Even if Harang does return to his old form, I still wouldn't put him ahead of Cueto, Arroyo or Leake. But those guy don't miss bats enough to impress some people.

I think this season, Harang, Leake and Arroyo all provide similar levels of production.

Which is, to me, all the more reason to trade for someone better.

Reds1
07-16-2010, 11:45 AM
I know this is crazy, but what about Harang as closer?

PuffyPig
07-16-2010, 12:08 PM
Even if Harang does return to his old form, I still wouldn't put him ahead of Cueto, Arroyo or Leake. But those guy don't miss bats enough to impress some people.


Harang at his best was certainly better than Cueto, Arroyo and Leake this year. Though Cueto is getting close, he doesn't give us the innings that the old Harang did.

PuffyPig
07-16-2010, 12:09 PM
I know this is crazy, but what about Harang as closer?

The word on the street is that this is crazy....

hebroncougar
07-16-2010, 12:10 PM
I agree with this snippet. I don't think Volquez is the 2008 Volquez all year in 2010; maybe a start or two in late September against a team that has pretty much packed it in. But if he can just be solid and consistent and collect outs for six innings at a time and keep our offense in the game; he's a huge lift and a shot in the arm.

Coming off major surgery to hear that he's throwing hard again is really a testament to him either being a genetic freak or an extremely good work ethic or both.

I want Volquez to do as well as the next guy, but don't forget about why he was suspended for 50 games. I'm sure that has something to do with a positive recovery to this point.

bucksfan2
07-16-2010, 12:20 PM
I think this season, Harang, Leake and Arroyo all provide similar levels of production.

Which is, to me, all the more reason to trade for someone better.

I want what your drinking :thumbup:

Hoosier Red
07-16-2010, 12:30 PM
I want Volquez to do as well as the next guy, but don't forget about why he was suspended for 50 games. I'm sure that has something to do with a positive recovery to this point.

It depends. I'm not a physiologist, but he hasn't been caught with it again(and I'm pretty sure he gets tested more often now.)
I'm not sure how much taking a hormone like that 10 months ago would be helping him throw harder now.

REDblooded
07-16-2010, 12:30 PM
My biggest concern with Volquez is the standard return from TJ involves a bit more velocity but a reduction in the effectiveness/control of breaking pitches... Very much hoping that his change-up is as sharp as it was before TJ, but expecting it to take a season or so to return to form...

edabbs44
07-16-2010, 12:40 PM
I think this season, Harang, Leake and Arroyo all provide similar levels of production.

Which is, to me, all the more reason to trade for someone better.

Huh?

mdccclxix
07-16-2010, 12:45 PM
My biggest concern with Volquez is the standard return from TJ involves a bit more velocity but a reduction in the effectiveness/control of breaking pitches... Very much hoping that his change-up is as sharp as it was before TJ, but expecting it to take a season or so to return to form...

We'll all get to see that Saturday, but I'll add that Hanigan says his changeup is "lights out". It was his FB that needed some refinement, I think.

I tend to think the opposite of some, he'll struggle early (3-4 starts) and pick it up down the stretch. We'll see.

TheNext44
07-16-2010, 01:09 PM
Harang at his best was certainly better than Cueto, Arroyo and Leake this year. Though Cueto is getting close, he doesn't give us the innings that the old Harang did.

Your definitely right on Leake, but I wouldn't say that Harang in his prime is that much better than Cueto or Arroyo have been this year. Cueto is on pace for close to 200 innings this season, and Arroyo isn't as dominant, but he's always been successful at keeping the team in game most of the time. And both are better suited for GABP.

Harang might had a statistical edge in some important areas, but overall, I think all three give the team about the same chance to win each time they take (took) the mound.

Scrap Irony
07-16-2010, 01:37 PM
I think this season, Harang, Leake and Arroyo all provide similar levels of production.

Which is, to me, all the more reason to trade for someone better.

I guess it depends on what you mean by "similar".

If you mean similar as in a starter who will likely give you innings on a regular basis, then I suppose you could be correct. Other than that, Harang is clearly the lesser of those three starters.

Harang = Jordan Smith, at this point-- a good (possibly very good) reliever, with the advantage of possibly giving a ton of meh innings out of the fifth spot in the rotation. He's Livan Hernandez, pre-2010 "renaissance".

Arroyo and Leake are above average major league starters. (Arroyo, in particular, has consistently pitched better than his periphials for years. Since 2004, he's outperformed his xFIP by an average of almost half a run per season. And production is what counts here, not a projection of what's most likely going forward.)

Falls City Beer
07-16-2010, 02:17 PM
Arroyo and Leake are above average major league starters. (Arroyo, in particular, has consistently pitched better than his periphials for years. Since 2004, he's outperformed his xFIP by an average of almost half a run per season. And production is what counts here, not a projection of what's most likely going forward.)

Arroyo's production is really asking to fall some though (in fact, I suspect a lineup like the Rockies' in this heat will create a real ERA wrecker tonight). Leake's probably too (largely because he's in uncharted territory). Harang's numbers--provided his arm is sound--are likely to improve, or at least not diminish at all.

But yeah, I mostly agree with your parenthetical remark.

fearofpopvol1
07-16-2010, 04:51 PM
I posted this in the Harang thread, but will here too...

"The big wildcard here for me is Volquez. Is he going to provide better production than Harang will in the rotation for the rest of the year? If so, then by all means, trading Harang makes sense. If he's not, then Volquez should head to the pen for the remainder of the year."

Scrap Irony
07-16-2010, 06:21 PM
Arroyo's production is really asking to fall some though (in fact, I suspect a lineup like the Rockies' in this heat will create a real ERA wrecker tonight). Leake's probably too (largely because he's in uncharted territory). Harang's numbers--provided his arm is sound--are likely to improve, or at least not diminish at all.

But yeah, I mostly agree with your parenthetical remark.

Eh, maybe. But posters have been insisting Arroyo's due for a major drop in numbers since he was dealt for Pena. It largely hasn't happened. (In fact, over the past year, he's gotten better. #2 good, in fact, if not ace-level)

And Harang has been going the other way. Fast. If sabremetrics have taught me anything, it's to trust a long trend. And Harang's trend is three years and running, at this point. He's lost a couple mph and some stuff. It happens. But, because his stuff was fringy to begin with, it's cost him more than two hits per nine over the past four years.

I don't see that trending the other way.

Falls City Beer
07-16-2010, 06:45 PM
Eh, maybe. But posters have been insisting Arroyo's due for a major drop in numbers since he was dealt for Pena. It largely hasn't happened. (In fact, over the past year, he's gotten better. #2 good, in fact, if not ace-level)

And Harang has been going the other way. Fast. If sabremetrics have taught me anything, it's to trust a long trend. And Harang's trend is three years and running, at this point. He's lost a couple mph and some stuff. It happens. But, because his stuff was fringy to begin with, it's cost him more than two hits per nine over the past four years.

I don't see that trending the other way.

Harang's velocity hasn't dipped a bit. And Arroyo can be awful for 1/2 seasons at a time.

TheNext44
07-16-2010, 06:53 PM
Harang's velocity hasn't dipped a bit. And Arroyo can be awful for 1/2 seasons at a time.

But it's always been the first half of the season. He seems to excell in the second half. Now that could change this year, but if you are using a silly stat first half/second half splits, you have to acknowledge that it suggests that he will have a solid second half.

Falls City Beer
07-16-2010, 06:58 PM
But it's always been the first half of the season. He seems to excell in the second half. Now that could change this year, but if you are using a silly stat first half/second half splits, you have to acknowledge that it suggests that he will have a solid second half.

No, I'm saying eventually luck runs out. Arroyo gets the most out of nothing, but in the end, it's still nothing, and it's going to get rocked.

TheNext44
07-16-2010, 07:18 PM
No, I'm saying eventually luck runs out. Arroyo gets the most out of nothing, but in the end, it's still nothing, and it's going to get rocked.

People have been saying that since he's been a Red. 62 wins, 4.00 ERA later...

Falls City Beer
07-16-2010, 07:28 PM
People have been saying that since he's been a Red. 62 wins, 4.00 ERA later...

He's been an average/slightly below average pitcher in the easiest division in baseball. And he's been getting slowly less effective and more defense-dependent.

TheNext44
07-16-2010, 07:33 PM
He's been an average/slightly below average pitcher in the easiest division in baseball. And he's been getting slowly less effective and defense-dependent.

This is an old argument this board has had too often. But a summation of the other side is that while he's never had had strong peripherals, he keeps putting above average ERA, and most importantly, he keeps winning and never misses a start, literally. I think it's time to ignore Arroyo's paripherals and realize he's an above average pitcher.

Falls City Beer
07-16-2010, 07:35 PM
This is an old argument this board has had too often. But a summation of the other side is that while he's never had had strong peripherals, he keeps putting above average ERA, and most importantly, he keeps winning and never misses a start, literally. I think it's time to ignore Arroyo's paripherals and realize he's an above average pitcher.

He used to have solid peripherals.

And you're right, he's durable.

Blitz Dorsey
07-16-2010, 07:35 PM
"best pitcher on the team, at least until Harang's return?"

You know, I've been as stubborn as anybody in clinging to the notion that Aaron Harang is going to return to his 06-07 form, but I gave up earlier in this year.

Does anybody reading this think Harang is the Reds best pitcher?

The story lost any validity as soon as I read that. What a hack of a writer that doesn't have any clue about the Reds.

VR
07-16-2010, 07:44 PM
Harang's velocity has dropped 1-3 mph the last 4 starts from his career norm and earlier starts this season.

CTA513
07-16-2010, 07:56 PM
Harang's velocity has dropped 1-3 mph the last 4 starts from his career norm and earlier starts this season.

Harang can throw harder but it doesn't look like he can control the movement when he does.

VR
07-16-2010, 08:17 PM
Harang can throw harder but it doesn't look like he can control the movement when he does.

He used to be able to do both. With a loss of velocity....hitters can sit on his breaking ball with 2 strikes and not have to worry about getting blown away.

REDblooded
07-16-2010, 08:44 PM
Why bang on Arroyo? He's not a power pitcher... It's never been his game, so you're not gonna get the "WOW" k-factor. Who cares? He mixes everything up, and has several variations on his breaking pitches which still allows him to keep hitters off balance. Is he going to rely on his defense more? Sure. But he's still hitting spots with stuff that forces the hitter to hit the ball pretty much exactly how/where he wants it hit based on the defensive alignment...

How that isn't valuable is beyond me... If anything, it seems to me that due to the way he pitches, he's less effective when the air is calm and dry, which prevents his slower breaking stuff from dancing as much as it does when the proper climate gives him more movement... From what I've noticed, Arroyo pitches best when it's windy and/or humid...

OnBaseMachine
07-16-2010, 08:59 PM
He's been an average/slightly below average pitcher in the easiest division in baseball. And he's been getting slowly less effective and more defense-dependent.

Arroyo has a 112 ERA+ in 992 innings with the Reds. He's been above average since becoming a Red.

membengal
07-16-2010, 09:03 PM
Arroyo's production is really asking to fall some though (in fact, I suspect a lineup like the Rockies' in this heat will create a real ERA wrecker tonight). Leake's probably too (largely because he's in uncharted territory). Harang's numbers--provided his arm is sound--are likely to improve, or at least not diminish at all.

But yeah, I mostly agree with your parenthetical remark.

Or 7 innings of 1-run 3-hit baseball. Could go either way...

Falls City Beer
07-16-2010, 09:05 PM
This team is literally breakdancing on a highwire over the Grand Canyon. Just pray the Rockies don't get over the jetlag.

edabbs44
07-16-2010, 09:10 PM
This team is literally breakdancing on a highwire over the Grand Canyon. Just pray the Rockies don't get over the jetlag.

Reaching there.

Reds1
07-16-2010, 10:47 PM
The word on the street is that this is crazy....

I'm just worried about Coco and trying to think what other options are there. Hopefully he'll be ok and did well tonight, but just thinking outside the box.

kaldaniels
07-16-2010, 11:46 PM
He used to have solid peripherals.

And you're right, he's durable.

Worded very carefully. Do you think he is an above-average pitcher?

fearofpopvol1
07-17-2010, 12:34 AM
Arroyo's production is really asking to fall some though (in fact, I suspect a lineup like the Rockies' in this heat will create a real ERA wrecker tonight).

Hmm...didn't look too bad to me tonight.

VR
07-17-2010, 01:10 AM
The scary thought.....Arroyo just had one of his best first 1/2's during his Reds tenure.

If he puts up his typical 2nd half #'s with this re-energized offense.....he may be pushing 18-20 wins.

REDblooded
07-17-2010, 01:41 AM
The scary thought.....Arroyo just had one of his best first 1/2's during his Reds tenure.

If he puts up his typical 2nd half #'s with this re-energized offense.....he may be pushing 18-20 wins.

Which would correlate with my suggestion that he pitches better in humid air... would love to see numbers on that.

membengal
07-17-2010, 02:48 AM
This team is literally breakdancing on a highwire over the Grand Canyon. Just pray the Rockies don't get over the jetlag.

What does this mean? Their pitching has been nails. Their losses last week on the offense. What highwire act?

Also, I don't think literal means what you think it means...

reds44
07-17-2010, 02:53 AM
What does this mean? Their pitching has been nails. Their losses last week on the offense. What highwire act?

Also, I don't think literal means what you think it means...
I'm glad somebody pointed that out.

I have yet to see a member of the Reds break dancing over the Grand Canyon.

redsmetz
07-17-2010, 07:04 AM
Has there been any talking of who gets moved off the 40 man roster when Volquez is activated today? He's coming of the 60-day DL, so someone on the 40's going to have to be removed, not just sending someone down.

GAC
07-17-2010, 07:36 AM
Arroyo's production is really asking to fall some though (in fact, I suspect a lineup like the Rockies' in this heat will create a real ERA wrecker tonight).

You're wrong again! :p:

Arroyo - 7 IPs, 5 hits, 2 ERs. He held them hitless until the 7th inning where they finally put together a couple hits and pushed across their first run. Yeah, he came out and got in trouble in the 8th, but that can happen to any pitcher after going so late in the game and throwing 93 pitches IN THIS HEAT. Bronson did an excellent job.

He's 10-4 with an ERA of 3.96.

In 2009...

July ERA - 3.58
August ERA - 1.99
Sept ERA - 1.83

Go back over the last few years and you'll easily see that Arroyo has done his best work in the second half - almost like he gets stronger - in comparison to the first half. No, I can't explain it, nor am I going to try to.

Chip R
07-17-2010, 08:07 AM
He's been an average/slightly below average pitcher in the easiest division in baseball. And he's been getting slowly less effective and more defense-dependent.

Of course he'd be great if he played for StL, right?

membengal
07-17-2010, 09:42 AM
Of course he'd be great if he played for StL, right?

Hall. of. Fame.

paulrichjr
07-17-2010, 09:56 AM
What does this mean? Their pitching has been nails. Their losses last week on the offense. What highwire act?

Also, I don't think literal means what you think it means...

:bowrofl:

I laughed out loud. Thank you.

mth123
07-17-2010, 09:59 AM
Has there been any talking of who gets moved off the 40 man roster when Volquez is activated today? He's coming of the 60-day DL, so someone on the 40's going to have to be removed, not just sending someone down.

Been wondering that myself. I'm surprised that they aren't waiting until Hernandez is ready so they could DFA Corky. My guess is Homer goes on the 60 Day DL. He won't be back any time soon anyway and his last outing was May 23, easily 60 days before he returns.

Scrap Irony
07-17-2010, 11:01 AM
Good call, mth. That's what I'd do. Assuming no breakthroughs with Homer that we haven't heard about, that's what makes the most sense. Even if Bailey suddenly rediscovered his late 2009 form, he'd need a rehab start or three to get there.

Or Jocketty could be looking to make a deal wherein two of his 40-man roster guys are sent for one better option.

redsmetz
07-17-2010, 11:33 AM
Good call, mth. That's what I'd do. Assuming no breakthroughs with Homer that we haven't heard about, that's what makes the most sense. Even if Bailey suddenly rediscovered his late 2009 form, he'd need a rehab start or three to get there.

Or Jocketty could be looking to make a deal wherein two of his 40-man roster guys are sent for one better option.

I think mth has it correctly and I hadn't thought of that. He was DL'ed on 5/24 or so, so he's practically at that anyway and it doesn't seem as if he'll be ready for several weeks. Easy call.

Brutus
07-17-2010, 11:35 AM
Been wondering that myself. I'm surprised that they aren't waiting until Hernandez is ready so they could DFA Corky. My guess is Homer goes on the 60 Day DL. He won't be back any time soon anyway and his last outing was May 23, easily 60 days before he returns.

I think you'll see this exact scenario but it will likely be Mike Lincoln who is moved to the 60-day.

redsmetz
07-17-2010, 11:48 AM
I think you'll see this exact scenario but it will likely be Mike Lincoln who is moved to the 60-day.

Could be too. It does show we have more roster flexibility than I had thought.

VR
07-17-2010, 12:04 PM
I would look no further than Jaime Garcia when considering tightwires and canyons that are grand.
Gave up another 9 baserunners in 3.1 IP last night.

The Reds starting pitching has so much more quality depth right now....it's a beautiful thing.

yab1112
07-17-2010, 01:15 PM
http://www.priority-1.org/html/ABerger/tightrope.jpg

When asked how he felt about this year's pitching staff, Votto had this to say, "Well I don't like the Grand Canyon and I'm certainly not going to pat anyone on the back who tightropes across it." He then confirmed that he does indeed dislike puppies, climbed on his vespa and took off to go get a fancy coffee.

Brutus
07-17-2010, 01:18 PM
http://www.priority-1.org/html/ABerger/tightrope.jpg

When asked how he felt about this year's pitching staff, Votto had this to say, "Well I don't like the Grand Canyon and I'm certainly not going to pat anyone on the back who tightropes across it." He then confirmed that he does indeed dislike puppies, climbed on his vespa and took off to go get a fancy coffee.

Well done sir!

Ghosts of 1990
07-17-2010, 01:20 PM
http://www.priority-1.org/html/ABerger/tightrope.jpg

When asked how he felt about this year's pitching staff, Votto had this to say, "Well I don't like the Grand Canyon and I'm certainly not going to pat anyone on the back who tightropes across it." He then confirmed that he does indeed dislike puppies, climbed on his vespa and took off to go get a fancy coffee.

I just spit out my ice tea

nate
07-17-2010, 01:21 PM
http://www.priority-1.org/html/ABerger/tightrope.jpg

When asked how he felt about this year's pitching staff, Votto had this to say, "Well I don't like the Grand Canyon and I'm certainly not going to pat anyone on the back who tightropes across it." He then confirmed that he does indeed dislike puppies, climbed on his vespa and took off to go get a fancy coffee.

Dude..serious Redszone cred for that!

You could've put Aramis Ramirez' batting average at the bottom.

:cool:

VR
07-17-2010, 01:37 PM
Instant archive material there, well done.

reds44
07-17-2010, 01:47 PM
http://www.priority-1.org/html/ABerger/tightrope.jpg

When asked how he felt about this year's pitching staff, Votto had this to say, "Well I don't like the Grand Canyon and I'm certainly not going to pat anyone on the back who tightropes across it." He then confirmed that he does indeed dislike puppies, climbed on his vespa and took off to go get a fancy coffee.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA that is awesome.

Tornon
07-17-2010, 02:09 PM
Have we heard anything on the roster move concerning the 25-man? I've just assumed it's going to be Maloney

mth123
07-17-2010, 04:46 PM
http://www.priority-1.org/html/ABerger/tightrope.jpg

When asked how he felt about this year's pitching staff, Votto had this to say, "Well I don't like the Grand Canyon and I'm certainly not going to pat anyone on the back who tightropes across it." He then confirmed that he does indeed dislike puppies, climbed on his vespa and took off to go get a fancy coffee.

Genious.

GAC
07-17-2010, 04:49 PM
That was simply brilliant yab... briliiant I say!

And you owe me a shirt and coffee!

reds1869
07-17-2010, 04:52 PM
That was simply brilliant yab... briliiant I say!

And you owe me a shirt and coffee!

A regular coffee or some of Votto's fancy coffee?

The Grand Canyon post was genious. One of the best on here in a long, long time. Cheers! :beerme:

GAC
07-17-2010, 04:56 PM
A regular coffee or some of Votto's fancy coffee?

I can't afford that fancy stuff, and I could never hold the cup right with my pinky finger in the air. I'm a Maxwell House or Folgers guy. Which ever is on sale.

nate
07-17-2010, 05:15 PM
I can't afford that fancy stuff, and I could never hold the cup right with my pinky finger in the air. I'm a Maxwell House or Folgers guy. Which ever is on sale.

The pinky in the air is reserved for PBR?

:cool:

Will M
07-17-2010, 10:57 PM
Volquez was in vintage 2008 form tonight. High 90s heater with movement & devastating offspeed stuff. I honestly had no idea what to expect from him. I kinda thought he would just be ok this year since he is just returning from TJ surgery. tonight he was more than just ok. he was flat out dominating. wow.

The Operator
07-17-2010, 11:25 PM
http://www.priority-1.org/html/ABerger/tightrope.jpg

When asked how he felt about this year's pitching staff, Votto had this to say, "Well I don't like the Grand Canyon and I'm certainly not going to pat anyone on the back who tightropes across it." He then confirmed that he does indeed dislike puppies, climbed on his vespa and took off to go get a fancy coffee.

You just made my favorite post of any time, on any forum.

Hall of Fame, sir. Top notch!

RBA
07-17-2010, 11:31 PM
Genious.


Genius.

corkedbat
07-17-2010, 11:33 PM
Volquez was in vintage 2008 form tonight. High 90s heater with movement & devastating offspeed stuff. I honestly had no idea what to expect from him. I kinda thought he would just be ok this year since he is just returning from TJ surgery. tonight he was more than just ok. he was flat out dominating. wow.

Amazing, dominating performance for EV tonight. I thought he'd be able to come back from the surgery just fine, but I didn't believe it would be this season. I expected a full month of rehab and then a gradual way back in the pen, starting with mop-ups. Tonight was huge.

I've believed the last couple of weeks that headed into the trade deadline the Reds most pressing need was a strong RH'd reliever. Smith and Ondruzek are starting to win me over though. Combine them with Massett showing steady signs of turning things around and EV's jewel tonight and I'm starting to feel good about going to war with what we got (maybe add Chapman to bolster the left side with Sir Arthur).

A very top notch arm (rotation or pen) is always welcomed, but if this team can make the playoffs powered mainly by its nucleus or young guns it could be monumental for the future.

PuffyPig
07-17-2010, 11:55 PM
Combine them with Massett showing steady signs of turning things around and EV's jewel tonight and I'm starting to feel good about going to war with what we got (maybe add Chapman to bolster the left side with Sir Arthur).



Don't forget Bray, who has looked very good.

And what about Harang and Bailey?

corkedbat
07-18-2010, 12:14 AM
Don't forget Bray, who has looked very good.

And what about Harang and Bailey?

Yeah, forgot about BB.

I've got to believe that Jocketty is doing all he can to find a creative way to move AH. Homer should go to L'Ville for at least a month's rehab assignment. Does he have any options left? I might leave him there for the rest of the year.

Then again, if he goes to the Bats, has a couple of impressive starts and there is an injury or someone in the rotation falters he could be valuable. He may be the very definition of inconsistent, but he and Maloney are pretty impressive insurance starters.

I don't think Homer will be ready in time to show he's fit before the trade deadline and I doubt he's clear waivers for an August deal. Probably means that Walt's gonna have one of the best young arms on the market next winter.

nemesis
07-18-2010, 03:58 AM
Yeah, forgot about BB.

I've got to believe that Jocketty is doing all he can to find a creative way to move AH. Homer should go to L'Ville for at least a month's rehab assignment. Does he have any options left? I might leave him there for the rest of the year.

Then again, if he goes to the Bats, has a couple of impressive starts and there is an injury or someone in the rotation falters he could be valuable. He may be the very definition of inconsistent, but he and Maloney are pretty impressive insurance starters.

I don't think Homer will be ready in time to show he's fit before the trade deadline and I doubt he's clear waivers for an August deal. Probably means that Walt's gonna have one of the best young arms on the market next winter.

Bailey is out of options. It's the big club or waivers. Harang's value might got a touch higher now that AJ Burnett is probably toast for the year. I'd take Hector Noesi straight up for him.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=456051

Serious control and misses bats.

mth123
07-18-2010, 08:41 AM
Genius.

That too!;)

membengal
07-18-2010, 09:18 AM
To turn the discussion back to what happened last night, that was one of the darndest things I can remember seeing in quite awhile. Even as his rehab progressed with extreme success, it was hard to fully buy in. It just takes time to really find command after TJ surgery for so many pitchers. If EV could get back to help in the pen, I was going to be thrilled.

For him to take the mound, and throw 60 strikes in 96 pitches? Well, wow. And that he brought a breaking ball (a knee buckler in a few cases) to go with his change and a fastball sitting at 95 still with him from the surgery? Double wow.

If he can remotely keep that up, that is a more exciting development for me than if the ream had acquired Cliff Lee. And Walt is still sitting a full aresenal of prospects for potential deals that might suit his fancy.

Just a thrillling night to be a Reds fan. And a bonus that it happened in front of a jam-packed sold-out GABP.

Blitz Dorsey
07-18-2010, 10:27 AM
I'd just like to say I was completely wrong about Volquez and I'm extremely happy about it! Never thought he would look pretty much exactly like his old form this quickly. I didn't think we'd see the "real" Edinson until next season. Thrilled to be wrong! Hopefully he can keep it going because if he does, buy your playoff tix now.

PuffyPig
07-18-2010, 10:52 AM
I don't think Homer will be ready in time to show he's fit before the trade deadline and I doubt he's clear waivers for an August deal. Probably means that Walt's gonna have one of the best young arms on the market next winter.



You know, there's nothng wrong with the Reds keeping "best young arms" either.

I wish I had a nickle for every time someone suggested we trade Bailey or Stubbs for some quick fix.

Votto was traded a number of times before he got a chance. Along with many of our best prospects, including Mesoraco.

We are a mid-market team. Our way to the top is through our farm system.

That's how we got to where whe are now. It's not time to abandon that plan.

A pitcher like Bailey is likely more use to us than many other teams.

VR
07-18-2010, 11:03 AM
I really appreciated Brantley behind home plate last night for Volquez debut. He's like having an advanced scout do color from that spot, and with EV's return, it was great timing.

Missing bats is one thing......but EV missed bats by 8-12 inches all night. He struck out one batter on a fastball eye high and outside. Several batters with a changeup, that in all honesty, should be banned in major league baseball. And then dropped a curve that had slider speed in a position that no one could hit, and very few could resist.

The other piece of this is Hanigan. With his absence earlier, and now razor's....It's obvious to me that Hanigan is just brilliant back there in his managing the pitcher, receiving, and exceptional framing of borderline pitches.

kaldaniels
07-18-2010, 11:07 AM
I really appreciated Brantley behind home plate last night for Volquez debut. He's like having an advanced scout do color from that spot, and with EV's return, it was great timing.

Missing bats is one thing......but EV missed bats by 8-12 inches all night. He struck out one batter on a fastball eye high and outside. Several batters with a changeup, that in all honesty, should be banned in major league baseball. And then dropped a curve that had slider speed in a position that no one could hit, and very few could resist.

The other piece of this is Hanigan. With his absence earlier, and now razor's....It's obvious to me that Hanigan is just brilliant back there in his managing the pitcher, receiving, and exceptional framing of borderline pitches.

I'm tough on Hanigan's batting skills, but there's not a thing to complain about him behind the plate. Well done sir.

Blitz Dorsey
07-18-2010, 11:13 AM
Hanigan is absolutely as good as they come in terms of calling a game and handling a pitching staff. He will be the Reds' everyday catcher for the next few years. Then one of the young guns (either Mesoraco or Grandal) will be his backup in a couple years (or maybe next year the way Mes is hitting) and will eventually challenge him for the starting job. But I love Hanigan back there. I know some fans couldn't care less about catcher ERA, but Hanigan's is excellent and from watching every game I can see why. It's no coincidence that pitchers pitch their best when he's behind the plate. And I actually like Razor Ramon -- I've always said getting him for Freel was a steal. But Hanigan is the man.

PuffyPig
07-18-2010, 11:48 AM
I really appreciated Brantley behind home plate last night for Volquez debut. He's like having an advanced scout do color from that spot, and with EV's return, it was great timing.

Missing bats is one thing......but EV missed bats by 8-12 inches all night. He struck out one batter on a fastball eye high and outside. Several batters with a changeup, that in all honesty, should be banned in major league baseball. And then dropped a curve that had slider speed in a position that no one could hit, and very few could resist.

The other piece of this is Hanigan. With his absence earlier, and now razor's....It's obvious to me that Hanigan is just brilliant back there in his managing the pitcher, receiving, and exceptional framing of borderline pitches.

Very nice assessment and summary.

_Sir_Charles_
07-18-2010, 11:59 AM
Genious.

LOL. I'm not sure which post is funnier...the grand canyon picture, or this one. That's right up there with someone misspelling "stuped" or "ideot". :O) J/K Mth, j/k.

_Sir_Charles_
07-18-2010, 12:04 PM
The other piece of this is Hanigan. With his absence earlier, and now razor's....It's obvious to me that Hanigan is just brilliant back there in his managing the pitcher, receiving, and exceptional framing of borderline pitches.

This.

While I agreed on all the Volquez stuff too, I think this aspect of Ryan's game gets extremely overlooked. He's calls a FANTASTIC game. He knows exactly when to settle down a pitcher, how to set up early or high to really drive his point home, defensively he's one of the best I've seen in a Reds uniform in a looooong time too.

VR
07-18-2010, 03:13 PM
This.

While I agreed on all the Volquez stuff too, I think this aspect of Ryan's game gets extremely overlooked. He's calls a FANTASTIC game. He knows exactly when to settle down a pitcher, how to set up early or high to really drive his point home, defensively he's one of the best I've seen in a Reds uniform in a looooong time too.


We don't have great stats to judge catchers....both a gap this big in CERA can't be ignored....as it aligns well w/ what most observe.

Hanigan 3.46
Hernandez 4.90

camisadelgolf
07-18-2010, 03:38 PM
This team is literally breakdancing on a highwire over the Grand Canyon. Just pray the Rockies don't get over the jetlag.
I haven't read the rest of this thread, and I'm sure someone has already touched on your use of the word 'literally', but aren't you an English teacher?

Falls City Beer
07-18-2010, 03:50 PM
I haven't read the rest of this thread, and I'm sure someone has already touched on your use of the word 'literally', but aren't you an English teacher?

Wow. I didn't know that!

Mario-Rijo
07-18-2010, 03:52 PM
Edinson looking masterful yesterday, how he did it.


• The Cincinnati Reds' rotation got a huge shot in the arm with a strong outing by Edinson Volquez, Tom Groeschen writes.

How Volquez won, from John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information:

Volquez consistently started at-bats with fastballs, throwing 19 first-pitch fastballs to the 23 batters he faced. He threw 14 of his 19 first-pitch fastballs on the outside third of the plate (10 for strikes). After the first pitch, the right-handed Volquez had success with his secondary offerings to the lefty-heavy (seven of nine starters) Colorado Rockies lineup. Left-handed Colorado hitters were 1-for-8 on Volquez's non-fastball pitches, and they missed on seven of their 14 swings. Volquez threw 49 fastballs of his 82 pitches to lefties overall, but with two strikes, Volquez threw 14 fastballs and 14 non-fastballs. Five of the seven strikeouts by lefties were on secondary pitches.

camisadelgolf
07-18-2010, 04:15 PM
Wow. I didn't know that!
Aren't you? Or did I just imagine that?

Falls City Beer
07-18-2010, 04:16 PM
Aren't you? Or did I just imagine that?

Yep. "Literally" has become a colloquial intensifier. This is "literally" the millionth time I've had this conversation.

TheNext44
07-18-2010, 04:37 PM
Yep. "Literally" has become a colloquial intensifier. This is "literally" the millionth time I've had this conversation.

See it all the time on Facebook and Twitter. Worse than the misuse of "ironic." Glad to see you keeping pace with all the teenage girls these days. Btw, how was Eclipse? Are you a Jacob or Edward fan? ;)

kaldaniels
07-18-2010, 04:53 PM
So what happens FCB...does a word get misused enough that academia just says "I give up" and allow a word to be used incorrectly.

Falls City Beer
07-18-2010, 04:55 PM
So what happens FCB...does a word get misused enough that academia just says "I give up" and allow a word to be used incorrectly.

I don't know; usage panels are kind of mysterious.

jojo
07-18-2010, 04:55 PM
I'm still pissed that the meaning of "begging the question" has been so cheapened...

But EV pitched as well as EV possibly can pitch last night. That's his ceiling. How cool was that?

camisadelgolf
07-18-2010, 05:03 PM
Yep. "Literally" has become a colloquial intensifier. This is "literally" the millionth time I've had this conversation.
Seeing as how I'm an expert on colloquial intensifiers and whatnot, I wasn't trying to correct you--I figured others would attempt to do that. I was merely surprised that an English teacher like yourself would use it in that way.
http://uhaweb.hartford.edu/LGOULD/Academic2.gif

lollipopcurve
07-18-2010, 05:03 PM
But EV pitched as well as EV possibly can pitch last night. That's his ceiling. How cool was that?

Not sure how one game can qualify as a ceiling. He threw really well, and he's done it before. He can become a better pitcher than he was if he can walk fewer guys and pitch deeper into games.

It's great to see the stuff come back -- especially the command of the change, which is devastating. Can't get too high off a single game though, or you might wake up and find yourself talking like Jeff Brantley. ;)

Falls City Beer
07-18-2010, 05:04 PM
Seeing as how I'm an expert on colloquial intensifiers and whatnot, I wasn't trying to correct you--I figured others would attempt to do that. I was merely surprised that an English teacher like yourself would use it in that way.
http://uhaweb.hartford.edu/LGOULD/Academic2.gif

Here's what's really liberating about being a teacher: you know exactly how annoying pedantic people can be.

camisadelgolf
07-18-2010, 05:05 PM
See it all the time on Facebook and Twitter. Worse than the misuse of "ironic." Glad to see you keeping pace with all the teenage girls these days. Btw, how was Eclipse? Are you a Jacob or Edward fan? ;)
Since the topic's already derailed--and I'm largely to blame for that--I also want to mention that I hate the misuse of the word 'sarcastic'. Often times, I'm accused of being sarcastic when I'm actually being facetious.

jojo
07-18-2010, 05:29 PM
Not sure how one game can qualify as a ceiling.

Easy. By ceiling, it was implied that last night was about as good as he can throw. From a stuff/command standpoint, we saw the best he's likely capable of doing (in other words his ceiling).

Again, how cool was that?

TRF
07-18-2010, 05:59 PM
I thought personal attacks on posters was against the rules.

jojo
07-18-2010, 06:00 PM
I thought personal attacks on posters was against the rules.

It's were not was... :cool:

camisadelgolf
07-18-2010, 06:02 PM
I thought personal attacks on posters was against the rules.
It depends on whom you're attacking and why. ;)

TheNext44
07-18-2010, 07:56 PM
I thought personal attacks on posters was against the rules.

I didn't see anything in this tread that wasn't good natured kidding. But I guess it's as fine line, and maybe I missed some.

lollipopcurve
07-19-2010, 10:09 AM
Easy. By ceiling, it was implied that last night was about as good as he can throw. From a stuff/command standpoint, we saw the best he's likely capable of doing (in other words his ceiling).

Again, how cool was that?

Of course it was cool.

But he's thrown that well -- harder, and at times with better command, in other games before he was hurt.

How could you possibly know that was as well as Volquez can throw?

Maybe the announcers? Brennaman and Brantley spew all kinds of superlatives, but it's mostly hot air. If you've watched Volquez at all closely since he came to the Reds, you know he's been as good as he was on Saturday plenty of times, and he's been more dominating on occasion, too.

jojo
07-19-2010, 11:52 AM
Of course it was cool.

But he's thrown that well -- harder, and at times with better command, in other games before he was hurt.

How could you possibly know that was as well as Volquez can throw?

Maybe the announcers? Brennaman and Brantley spew all kinds of superlatives, but it's mostly hot air. If you've watched Volquez at all closely since he came to the Reds, you know he's been as good as he was on Saturday plenty of times, and he's been more dominating on occasion, too.

I'm not sure why the hairsplitting but again, the Volquez we saw during his first start is about as good as he'll ever be from a stuff/command standpoint... If you think he's got more room, I'd love to know where it'll come from.... Announcers? How about eyes and pitch f/x? Announcers? Seriously.

That's the guy we hope will show up every start (i.e. his ceiling). We know differently but again, how cool was it to see his ceiling after the surgery?

kaldaniels
07-19-2010, 12:31 PM
I'm not sure why the hairsplitting but again, the Volquez we saw during his first start is about as good as he'll ever be from a stuff/command standpoint... If you think he's got more room, I'd love to know where it'll come from.... Announcers? How about eyes and pitch f/x? Announcers? Seriously.

That's the guy we hope will show up every start (i.e. his ceiling). We know differently but again, how cool was it to see his ceiling after the surgery?

I hope we see EV go more than 6 IP in every start. I'd like his changeup to be located a little better...many were left up. Command? How about not allowing 2 BB. Not complaining for one bit, but this crusade to say that EV will never be more dominating/never have a better start is silly...silly I say.

lollipopcurve
07-19-2010, 12:39 PM
the Volquez we saw during his first start is about as good as he'll ever be from a stuff/command standpoint..

How do you know this? The guy is fresh off TJ surgery and 27 years old.

jojo
07-19-2010, 12:42 PM
How do you know this? The guy is fresh off TJ surgery and 27 years old.

Where is his stuff command going to improve? Clearly I don't have a crystal ball, but the argument is pretty straightforward....

lollipopcurve
07-19-2010, 12:46 PM
Where is his stuff command going to improve? Clearly I don't have a crystal ball, but the argument is pretty straightforward....

He can probably get a bit more velocity. The gun had him at 94-95, touching 96. Assuming gun-equality, he's thrown harder than that pre-surgery, and it stands to reason he'll get stronger as he gets further from the surgery.

jojo
07-19-2010, 12:49 PM
I hope we see EV go more than 6 IP in every start. I'd like his changeup to be located a little better...many were left up. Command? How about not allowing 2 BB. Not complaining for one bit, but this crusade to say that EV will never be more dominating/never have a better start is silly...silly I say.

I think the need to continually mischaracterize the statement is puzzling...

The guy has a career BB/9 of 4.6 and he would've only walked 3 if going 9 during his last start. There is more to command than balls and strikes but seriously, you think he'll ever consistently have a BB/9 better than 3? A BB/9 of 3 for Volquez would be like winning the lottery. BTW, I thought his location was excellent as well.

If he'll ever have better stuff-i.e. stuff/command at a level that would be considered something he might do consistently, where again will that be exhibited?

jojo
07-19-2010, 12:50 PM
He can probably get a bit more velocity. The gun had him at 94-95, touching 96. Assuming gun-equality, he's thrown harder than that pre-surgery, and it stands to reason he'll get stronger as he gets further from the surgery.

Edison's average velocity was sitting almost exactly where it's been for his entire major league career (a tick below 94).

kaldaniels
07-19-2010, 12:56 PM
I think the need to continually mischaracterize the statement is puzzling...

The guy has a career BB/9 of 4.6 and he would've only walked 3 if going 9 during his last start. There is more to command than balls and strikes but seriously, you think he'll ever consistently have a BB/9 better than 3? A BB/9 of 3 for Volquez would be like winning the lottery. BTW, I thought his location was excellent as well.

If he'll ever have better stuff-i.e. stuff/command at a level that would be considered something he might do consistently, where again will that be exhibited?

I answered that in my previous statement. Whether or not you want to believe it is your choice.

lollipopcurve
07-19-2010, 01:06 PM
If he'll ever have better stuff-i.e. stuff/command at a level that would be considered something he might do consistently, where again will that be exhibited?


You made the claim that a single game represented "as good as he can throw." Now you've changed it to something like "as good as he could ever hope to be consistently."

How do you know he can be consistent with that stuff?

Seems to me you're making absolutist claims about Volquez's stuff that you really have no basis for. That's why you're running into resistance.

jojo
07-19-2010, 01:09 PM
I answered that in my previous statement. Whether or not you want to believe it is your choice.

Again, how practical is that demand? In other words, how many major league starters actually do that and what in EV's history suggests it's a reasonable to expect EV could do it?

jojo
07-19-2010, 01:15 PM
You made the claim that a single game represented "as good as he can throw." Now you've changed it to something like "as good as he could ever hope to be consistently."

How do you know he can be consistent with that stuff?

Seems to me you're making absolutist claims about Volquez's stuff that you really have no basis for. That's why you're running into resistance.

Seriously. That was as good as you'll ever see him throw-i.e. that was the guy we hope he'll be every start. You think he can do better?

Again, hair split away but the point stands and it's a strange point to purchase a microscopic axe to chop at....

lollipopcurve
07-19-2010, 01:44 PM
That was as good as you'll ever see him throw-i.e. that was the guy we hope he'll be every start. You think he can do better?


From a performance standpoint, he's had several games with higher game scores, so I have already seen him do better multiple times. I expect he'll eclipse it again.

From a stuff standpoint, he's thrown harder. He's had more movement on the fastball. He's been sharper with the changeup right out of the chute. I expect we'll see those kind of variations again. Why wouldn't we?

Your insistence that he'll never be better reminds me of a child saying, "bet you can't do that again!" Forgive me for saying so, but I get the sense that while you pretend to have enjoyed the moment, your real pleasure is in saying it won't happen again.

jojo
07-19-2010, 02:02 PM
From a performance standpoint, he's had several games with higher game scores, so I have already seen him do better multiple times. I expect he'll eclipse it again.

From a stuff standpoint, he's thrown harder. He's had more movement on the fastball. He's been sharper with the changeup right out of the chute. I expect we'll see those kind of variations again. Why wouldn't we?

Your insistence that he'll never be better reminds me of a child saying, "bet you can't do that again!" Forgive me for saying so, but I get the sense that while you pretend to have enjoyed the moment, your real pleasure is in saying it won't happen again.

Except that I haven't said that.... Seriously. Again, why are YOU swinging a microscopic axe so vigorously especially since it's becoming apparent the hair is on a strawman????????

Again, his last start was as good as it gets which is a very rational argument.

TRF
07-19-2010, 02:16 PM
Except that I haven't said that.... Seriously. Again, why are YOU swinging a microscopic axe so vigorously especially since it's becoming apparent the hair is on a strawman????????

Again, his last start was as good as it gets which is a very rational argument.

no see you are missing the point. he could pitch 6.1 innings and K 10 while walking 2.

See? miles better.
:rolleyes:

IMO ceiling is an average of your highest performances, not the zenith. ceilings generally have roofs over them, but it's easier to see the ceiling from inside. Can EV have a better game? ABSOLUTELY. If he never has a better game than that one, but that becomes the average, I certainly won't be upset.

Pretty much all jojo was trying to say i think.

jojo
07-19-2010, 02:19 PM
Exactly. EV came off of his rehab looking like the guy we hope (and scouts dreamed) he'll become.

kaldaniels
07-19-2010, 03:06 PM
Exactly. EV came off of his rehab looking like the guy we hope (and scouts dreamed) he'll become.

Ceiling sematics aside, I just think he could improve. That's all. Like I said, watch the walks, locate the changeup a bit better, I even think he is going to be able to dial it up a little faster when needed as the months pass myself...I've kinda been expecting that after the TJ.

I'm not arguing silly stuff like the ceiling remarks, I'm just saying there is potential for even better.

Fair enough?

PuffyPig
07-19-2010, 03:10 PM
From a stuff standpoint, he's thrown harder. He's had more movement on the fastball. He's been sharper with the changeup right out of the chute. I expect we'll see those kind of variations again. Why wouldn't we?



You haven't mentioned his curve ball.

How did that compare with his curve balls of the past?

TRF
07-19-2010, 03:27 PM
Ceiling sematics aside, I just think he could improve. That's all. Like I said, watch the walks, locate the changeup a bit better, I even think he is going to be able to dial it up a little faster when needed as the months pass myself...I've kinda been expecting that after the TJ.

I'm not arguing silly stuff like the ceiling remarks, I'm just saying there is potential for even better.

Fair enough?

Just my opinion...

The only thing I think he could do better is pitch deeper into the game. The reports of his control, his only 2 BB's, nothing really hit hard off him, and likely a few nerves in inning 1 tell me he can't do much better. He threw 96 pitches, 22 in inning 1. the rest of the game he averaged 15 pitches per inning. That isn't a bad average, 103 for a 7 inning game.

That'd be 7 IP 103 pitches, 2BB's 10+K's.

Can he have a better game than Friday? sure. But if that is now the average start for EV, that's new territory for him. As jojo said, how freaking cool is that? Liriano didn't do as well his first start back.

fearofpopvol1
07-19-2010, 06:05 PM
I am curious about his velocity. He even said in an interview a few days before the start he could comfortably throw at 96-98 whereas he said he only touched those numbers before. I don't think he actually hit higher than 95 in his first start.

The velocity probably won't make any of his results better moving forward, but I like gas and am hoping to see some of it.

Will M
07-19-2010, 07:54 PM
I am curious about his velocity. He even said in an interview a few days before the start he could comfortably throw at 96-98 whereas he said he only touched those numbers before. I don't think he actually hit higher than 95 in his first start.

The velocity probably won't make any of his results better moving forward, but I like gas and am hoping to see some of it.

during the telecast when the network shows the pitch again & puts up the strikezone graph they also list the pitch velocity. i saw 96 mph at least once. it stuck in my mind.

fearofpopvol1
07-19-2010, 08:08 PM
during the telecast when the network shows the pitch again & puts up the strikezone graph they also list the pitch velocity. i saw 96 mph at least once. it stuck in my mind.

The park guns are notorious for registering a speed faster than what was actually pitched.

Falls City Beer
07-21-2010, 09:10 PM
Arroyo did a few too many power slides on that tightrope.

It's weird how he can mystify some teams with his garbage, but then scrubs like the Nats decapitate him because they realize his repertoire is 88 MPH FB/Changeup.

They clearly knew exactly what to do with his slop tonight. Let's hope he's not ready for his annual 15-consecutive-game slide.

kaldaniels
07-21-2010, 10:51 PM
Arroyo did a few too many power slides on that tightrope.

It's weird how he can mystify some teams with his garbage, but then scrubs like the Nats decapitate him because they realize his repertoire is 88 MPH FB/Changeup.

They clearly knew exactly what to do with his slop tonight. Let's hope he's not ready for his annual 15-consecutive-game slide.

...right on cue

Falls City Beer
07-21-2010, 11:00 PM
...right on cue

They still need a starter. Lest folks forget.

But hey, we might just go into the last two months of the season, a season that presents the Reds first real chance at the postseason in 11 years, with Jason Isringhausen as their major acquisition!

fearofpopvol1
07-22-2010, 02:23 AM
Arroyo did a few too many power slides on that tightrope.

It's weird how he can mystify some teams with his garbage, but then scrubs like the Nats decapitate him because they realize his repertoire is 88 MPH FB/Changeup.

They clearly knew exactly what to do with his slop tonight. Let's hope he's not ready for his annual 15-consecutive-game slide.

yeah, i guess pitchers aren't prone to bad games every now and then.

it's no secret, arroyo's success depends heavily on changing speeds and locating his pitches. if 1 or both aren't working, he's going to give up a 5 or 6 or 7 spot. tonight happened to be one of those nights. he had a pretty great run before this. no reason to be so down after 1 game.

TheNext44
07-22-2010, 03:24 AM
Arroyo did a few too many power slides on that tightrope.

It's weird how he can mystify some teams with his garbage, but then scrubs like the Nats decapitate him because they realize his repertoire is 88 MPH FB/Changeup.

They clearly knew exactly what to do with his slop tonight. Let's hope he's not ready for his annual 15-consecutive-game slide.

I thought Arroyo pitched fine tonight. He's not a K pitcher, so he relies on luck and good defense. He had some bad luck and some bad defense tonight. If Cairo makes that play at third in the 6th, it's a completely different game.

This will always be his problem, since he just doesn't make guys swing and miss that often. Overall he'll be fine, but he will have games like this every now and then.

The Operator
07-22-2010, 04:38 AM
Yep, Arroyo was due for one of his clinkers. Not worried about him.

Are The Cards ever gonna lose again though? We certainly failed to capitalize on their rough patch before the ASB. Oy.

wolfboy
07-22-2010, 11:58 AM
Life is good when Redszone is arguing about how good Volquez is going to be instead of how bad Taveras or Patterson are.

Patrick Bateman
07-22-2010, 12:14 PM
Guys, seriously, Arroyo is at best a fungible arm at this point. Have you seen his K rate?

FCB has opinions on much more subjective topics to jump on him on, but the evaluation of Arroyo at this point is pretty crystal clear.

pahster
07-22-2010, 12:37 PM
Guys, seriously, Arroyo is at best a fungible arm at this point. Have you seen his K rate?

FCB has opinions on much more subjective topics to jump on him on, but the evaluation of Arroyo at this point is pretty crystal clear.

I'm hopeful Arroyo can work some magic for the rest of the season, but his K rate is exceedingly poor. I really don't think we can expect him to maintain an ERA anything like he has now in the future unless he changes something.

All the more reason to find a way to trade for Oswalt, I suppose. Then pay Harang and Arroyo's buyouts. Time to be a grownup franchise.

Falls City Beer
07-22-2010, 01:15 PM
First Arroyo, now Volquez.

pahster
07-22-2010, 01:17 PM
First Arroyo, now Volquez.

I don't think the sky is falling quite yet...

Falls City Beer
07-22-2010, 01:20 PM
I don't think the sky is falling quite yet...

Let's face it, the Reds are going to have to get a long string of good news and luck to make the postseason; too many players getting by on luck and the strength of the defense (Rhodes, Arroyo, probably Cueto, Gomes, Hanigan). Some bad luck was just asking to roost; the reverse is true for the Cardinals.

pahster
07-22-2010, 01:23 PM
Let's face it, the Reds are going to have to get a long string of good news and luck to make the postseason; too many players getting by on luck and the strength of the defense. Some bad luck was just asking to roost; the reverse is true for the Cardinals.

All they have to do is continue playing as they have throughout the season. That's not particularly unrealistic, especially if address one of their three main weaknesses: a SS, a LF, and/or a TOR starter.

Falls City Beer
07-22-2010, 01:25 PM
All they have to do is continue playing as they have throughout the season. That's not particularly unrealistic, especially if address one of their three main weaknesses: a SS, a LF, and/or a TOR starter.

I'm not sure I agree. I think they've squeezed about as much production out of their current talent. Injuries (without Rolen, the left side of the field is just a joke defensively), regression, are starting to show up in the box score.

TheNext44
07-22-2010, 01:41 PM
Guys, seriously, Arroyo is at best a fungible arm at this point. Have you seen his K rate?

FCB has opinions on much more subjective topics to jump on him on, but the evaluation of Arroyo at this point is pretty crystal clear.

Yes, because K rate is the only way to judge a pitcher. :rolleyes:

Like I said, he relies on defense and luck, which isn't a bad thing, unless you drink the Saber Kool Aid that says the only way to judge a pitcher is by how many strike outs he has.

Pitchers with lots of movement have proven to be very successful over long periods of time with average or worse K rates. You don't see many of them because teams love the hard throwers. Call them outliers or whatever, but the fact is that you don't have to K a ton of batters to be successful. It's better if you do, but it's not necessary.

TheNext44
07-22-2010, 01:45 PM
I'm not sure I agree. I think they've squeezed about as much production out of their current talent. Injuries (without Rolen, the left side of the field is just a joke defensively), regression, are starting to show up in the box score.

I agree, but I don't think they'll fall apart, just not make the playoffs. They definitely need more talent to make it to the postseason.

This team is winning, contending team, just not a championship team... yet.

Patrick Bateman
07-22-2010, 01:45 PM
Yes, because K rate is the only way to judge a pitcher. :rolleyes:

Like I said, he relies on defense and luck, which isn't a bad thing, unless you drink the Saber Kool Aid that says the only way to judge a pitcher is by how many strike outs he has.

Pitchers with lots of movement have proven to be very successful over long periods of time with average or worse K rates. You don't see many of them because teams love the hard throwers. Call them outliers or whatever, but the fact is that you don't have to K a ton of batters to be successful. It's better if you do, but it's not necessary.

Sorry, I'm not going to argue with someone this obtuse in an argument. Your summary of my argument was a pretty inadequate extension of my argument.

jojo
07-22-2010, 01:46 PM
Yes, because K rate is the only way to judge a pitcher. :rolleyes:

Like I said, he relies on defense and luck, which isn't a bad thing, unless you drink the Saber Kool Aid that says the only way to judge a pitcher is by how many strike outs he has.

Pitchers with lots of movement have proven to be very successful over long periods of time with average or worse K rates. You don't see many of them because teams love the hard throwers. Call them outliers or whatever, but the fact is that you don't have to K a ton of batters to be successful. It's better if you do, but it's not necessary.

Here's to hoping his BABIP and HR/FB rate don't regress back to his normal levels over the remaining portion of the season so that you can keep rationalizing the above argument.

TheNext44
07-22-2010, 02:00 PM
Here's to hoping his BABIP and HR/FB rate don't regress back to his normal levels over the remaining portion of the season so that you can keep rationalizing the above argument.

No rationalizing. Just looking at cold hard facts and making logical conclusions.

And the BABIP argument is tied to the same obsession with K's as the K rate arguement. Almost one in the same in my mind.

I know no one agrees with me on this, and I am fine with it. I'm used to being a majority of one. :)

jojo
07-22-2010, 02:09 PM
No rationalizing. Just looking at cold hard facts and making logical conclusions.

And the BABIP argument is tied to the same obsession with K's as the K rate arguement. Almost one in the same in my mind.

I know no one agrees with me on this, and I am fine with it. I'm used to being a majority of one. :)

The cold hard facts are that Arroyo has never been able to maintain his current BABIP...

I'm not sure arbitrarily characterizing Arroyo as a outlier then arguing outliers can be successful qualifies as cold hard facts... It's more like circular logic...

Rojo
07-22-2010, 02:21 PM
When you bet on outliers, you better have some darn good insight. I haven't seen it yet.

pahster
07-22-2010, 02:29 PM
I'm not sure I agree. I think they've squeezed about as much production out of their current talent. Injuries (without Rolen, the left side of the field is just a joke defensively), regression, are starting to show up in the box score.

If they lose Rolen, yes, I agree that they'll have a significant problem on their hands. I'm assuming he'll be fine. Maybe that isn't a safe assumption.

Falls City Beer
07-22-2010, 02:34 PM
If they lose Rolen, yes, I agree that they'll have a significant problem on their hands. I'm assuming he'll be fine. Maybe that isn't a safe assumption.

The Reds are in trouble even if Rolen repeats his first half.

nate
07-22-2010, 02:40 PM
Yes, because K rate is the only way to judge a pitcher. :rolleyes:

Like I said, he relies on defense and luck, which isn't a bad thing, unless you drink the Saber Kool Aid that says the only way to judge a pitcher is by how many strike outs he has.

There's no such "Kool Aid" in sabrmetrics.

TheNext44
07-22-2010, 02:45 PM
The cold hard facts are that Arroyo has never been able to maintain his current BABIP...

I'm not sure arbitrarily characterizing Arroyo as a outlier then arguing outliers can be successful qualifies as cold hard facts... It's more like circular logic...

I'm not calling him an outlier. I'm just saying that if it makes someone feel better to call him one, then whatever.

Nothing circular in my logic. Here it is in it's simplest form:

Pitcher with good control and movement on their pitches don't need to strike out a high number of batters in order to be as successful as those that do.

Arroyo has good control and movement on his pitchers.

Arroyo should be as or more successful for many years as many other pitchers who strikeout more batters than he does.

He has been as or more successful for many years as many other pitchers who strikeout more batters than he does. I believe it is because my argument above is sound.

TheNext44
07-22-2010, 02:46 PM
There's no such "Kool Aid" in sabrmetrics.

Maybe not for some one as smart as you, but I have seen it many times over the past few decades.

Falls City Beer
07-22-2010, 02:47 PM
Funny how Arroyo got less bad when he got a real defense behind him.

TheNext44
07-22-2010, 02:48 PM
The Reds are in trouble even if Rolen repeats his first half.

I agree. No way Gomes absurd production gets reproduced. Same for Hanigan and Hernandez.

pahster
07-22-2010, 02:54 PM
I agree. No way Gomes absurd production gets reproduced. Same for Hanigan and Hernandez.

A sub-.800 OPS from a LF isn't absurd, it's average-ish. Not that hard to replace, especially when you take into account defense, to which Gomes doesn't contribute anything useful.

Ghosts of 1990
07-22-2010, 02:56 PM
It is of my opinion that Volquez is a wild-card for the rest of the season. He'll give you half of what we saw today and half of what he gave you last weekend. No clue which one shows up coming off major arm surgery.

By no means should he be considered picking up a #1, and probably not even a #2. He's at best, an inconsistent 3 starter until possibly this time next season.

Falls City Beer
07-22-2010, 02:56 PM
I agree. No way Gomes absurd production gets reproduced. Same for Hanigan and Hernandez.

Those are hardly the only players playing well over their head. The pitching has been and will be this team's ultimate undoing.

fearofpopvol1
07-22-2010, 03:00 PM
Those are hardly the only players playing well over their head. The pitching has been and will be this team's ultimate undoing.

I am not sure about that. Cueto looks like a legit ace right now. Even though Leake has had some rough outings, he's been rock solid. Wood very well may put up better production than Arroyo. Harang will likely add value once he's back (whether that is to fill in for Leake) and Volquez is the wild card. Let's hope today was the exception rather than the norm.

The bullpen on the other hand concerns me, but maybe Springer and Izzy can improve it. Bray looks pretty awful at this point.

Falls City Beer
07-22-2010, 03:05 PM
I am not sure about that. Cueto looks like a legit ace right now. Even though Leake has had some rough outings, he's been rock solid. Wood very well may put up better production than Arroyo. Harang will likely add value once he's back (whether that is to fill in for Leake) and Volquez is the wild card. Let's hope today was the exception rather than the norm.

The bullpen on the other hand concerns me, but maybe Springer and Izzy can improve it. Bray looks pretty awful at this point.

The pitching staff--as it is--is pretty much a product of the defense. Now Rolen's out, Hernandez is just back. Let's hope Rolen's return can rein in some of this pitching crappiness. At minimum they need a high OBP bat, a TOR starter, and a bullpen arm. They're not likely to get more than one, much less all three.

Big Klu
07-22-2010, 03:16 PM
There aren't any starters out there to get. I think the Reds would be unwise to pick up Oswalt's 2011 AND 2012 options with the price tag that it entails, and Haren has already said that Cincinnati is on his no-trade list and that he wants to go to the West Coast.

fearofpopvol1
07-22-2010, 04:07 PM
There aren't any starters out there to get. I think the Reds would be unwise to pick up Oswalt's 2011 AND 2012 options with the price tag that it entails, and Haren has already said that Cincinnati is on his no-trade list and that he wants to go to the West Coast.

I think the Reds could get Lilly from the Cubs...and he's not even expensive nor a long-term commitment, but I don't know if Walt is considering that.

Rojo
07-22-2010, 04:11 PM
Pitcher with good control and movement on their pitches don't need to strike out a high number of batters in order to be as successful as those that do.

Depends on what you mean by "high". Nobody's saying every pitcher has to be Nolan Ryan to be effective but there's a k/9 floor. Sink below it and you better be awful lucky. Arroyo's sunk below it.

Big Klu
07-22-2010, 04:29 PM
I think the Reds could get Lilly from the Cubs...and he's not even expensive nor a long-term commitment, but I don't know if Walt is considering that.

Is he any better than what the Reds already have? (I don't know--I'm asking.)

KronoRed
07-22-2010, 04:35 PM
Is he any better than what the Reds already have? (I don't know--I'm asking.)

I'd say yes, trusting 2 rookies and a guy coming off arm surgery is a bad plan, if one wants to win something other then the mythical 82 wins trophy.

nate
07-22-2010, 04:39 PM
I don't think Lilly is better than what we already have.

Falls City Beer
07-22-2010, 05:47 PM
Lilly is decidedly better than at least two of the Reds' rotation options, so yes.

And it's not like a genuine TOR is coming to Cincinnati in my lifetime.

traderumor
07-22-2010, 05:56 PM
Lilly is decidedly better than at least two of the Reds' rotation options, so yes.

And it's not like a genuine TOR is coming to Cincinnati in my lifetime.They've had 3 in 40 years (Gullett, Soto, and Rijo). You might be right.

Big Klu
07-22-2010, 06:28 PM
They've had 3 in 40 years (Gullett, Soto, and Rijo). You might be right.

What about Seaver?

cincrazy
07-22-2010, 07:16 PM
Those are hardly the only players playing well over their head. The pitching has been and will be this team's ultimate undoing.

The pitching staff has been among one of the best staffs in baseball since early June. And it's saved this team's butt the last few months, as the offense has slowly but surely returned to Earth.

Falls City Beer
07-22-2010, 07:25 PM
The pitching staff has been among one of the best staffs in baseball since early June. And it's saved this team's butt the last few months, as the offense has slowly but surely returned to Earth.

The Reds' team OPS has been only .15 off its year-long team OPS in the last 30 days. This suggests that their offense has been humming along fine. Sure, the pitching staff has been better than it was in April, but it really hasn't moved the pin above a slightly below-league average team ERA.

traderumor
07-22-2010, 07:33 PM
What about Seaver?flashes of his former self while a Red, but never consistently an ace with the Reds

nate
07-22-2010, 07:37 PM
The pitching staff has been among one of the best staffs in baseball since early June. And it's saved this team's butt the last few months, as the offense has slowly but surely returned to Earth.

I disagree. I think the pitching staff has slightly below average at best and poor at worst during that time frame.

cincrazy
07-22-2010, 07:42 PM
I disagree. I think the pitching staff has slightly below average at best and poor at worst during that time frame.

I think that the bullpen has stabilized, and looking up and down the rotation, I really can't find a weak spot. Is it great? Certainly not. Do we have a go to Number 1 starter? No, we don't. And that certainly hurts. But to me, it's a solid pitching staff, top to bottom.

Am I ok with so many young players being counted on so deep into the season? No, it's kind of scary. And maybe their performance will regress down the stretch. But they've done a good job so far.

nate
07-22-2010, 07:45 PM
I think that the bullpen has stabilized, and looking up and down the rotation, I really can't find a weak spot. Is it great? Certainly not. Do we have a go to Number 1 starter? No, we don't. And that certainly hurts. But to me, it's a solid pitching staff, top to bottom.

I have to disagree. I think we've had some exciting performances by some young guys but the only really "goodish" pitcher is Cueto. Everyone else is "averagish" or worse.

They need someone "greatish."


Am I ok with so many young players being counted on so deep into the season? No, it's kind of scary. And maybe their performance will regress down the stretch. But they've done a good job so far.

Sure, in an "attaboy" sense but that ain't gonna work for a pennant race.

They really need to get a starter. They really need to keep the Cards from getting Oswalt.

OnBaseMachine
07-26-2010, 07:22 PM
From John Fay:


Edinson Volquez thinks he spotted the reason his control was so bad in his last start. He was racked for six runs in 3 1/3 innings in his last start, a 7-1 loss to Washington. He was in the video room before the game was over studying his performance. He noticed a flaw.

“In my stance in the stretch, I was on my heels,” he said. “I’m usually on my toes. I didn’t have good. That made me late with my arm.”


http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/07/26/volquez-spots-flaw/

cincrazy
07-26-2010, 07:46 PM
I have to disagree. I think we've had some exciting performances by some young guys but the only really "goodish" pitcher is Cueto. Everyone else is "averagish" or worse.

They need someone "greatish."



Sure, in an "attaboy" sense but that ain't gonna work for a pennant race.

They really need to get a starter. They really need to keep the Cards from getting Oswalt.

I completely agree with you, they do need someone "greatish." But where I disagree is with your overall look at how our starters have performed. I can't find anyone out of the current 5 that has been worse than average (albeit with Volquez, it's a very small sample size, so we don't really know what we have).

"Greatish" arms are hard to find, though. The Reds aren't the only team on the prowl for that type of pitcher.

nate
07-26-2010, 08:02 PM
I completely agree with you, they do need someone "greatish." But where I disagree is with your overall look at how our starters have performed. I can't find anyone out of the current 5 that has been worse than average (albeit with Volquez, it's a very small sample size, so we don't really know what we have).

Right. That's why I said our starters are "averagish."


"Greatish" arms are hard to find, though. The Reds aren't the only team on the prowl for that type of pitcher.

Yes.

Falls City Beer
07-27-2010, 08:34 PM
From John Fay:



http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/07/26/volquez-spots-flaw/

Uh huh.

Falls City Beer
07-27-2010, 09:03 PM
Volquez has no business on a MLB mound.

Soooo. Anyone have any ideas how many games he's gotta give away for the experiment to end?

camisadelgolf
07-27-2010, 09:06 PM
Volquez has no business on a MLB mound.

Soooo. Anyone have any ideas how many games he's gotta give away for the experiment to end?
Are you being dramatic for the sake of being dramatic, or do you really believe what you just said?

Falls City Beer
07-27-2010, 09:09 PM
Are you being dramatic for the sake of being dramatic, or do you really believe what you just said?

They should have waited till next season, when he was more fully healed and had a full spring to knock the rust off. Instead we get Volquez's ST in the middle of a pennant race.

RedsManRick
07-27-2010, 09:35 PM
They should have waited till next season, when he was more fully healed and had a full spring to knock the rust off. Instead we get Volquez's ST in the middle of a pennant race.

How many more innings would have he gotten in ST than he got in AAA? And it's 2+ starts. Over his career, I bet there are a whole bunch of 2+ start stretches where he dominates, struggles, struggles which had nothing to do coming back from surgery. That's not to say that it isn't related, but unless you know something specific about his mechanics or what-have-you, it's straight speculation.

Simple variance is a perfectly reasonable explanation.

11larkin11
07-27-2010, 09:54 PM
Can't wait til we get Hawksworth...dude's money.

camisadelgolf
07-27-2010, 10:07 PM
They should have waited till next season, when he was more fully healed and had a full spring to knock the rust off. Instead we get Volquez's ST in the middle of a pennant race.
In what way is he not healed enough? His velocity and stuff seem to be where they were before the injury.

As for a 'full spring', Bronson Arroyo led the Reds during spring training in innings pitched by quite a bit with 23.2. Edinson Volquez threw 31 innings over his six rehab starts, and that's not including the simulated games he was pitching in Arizona.

Falls City Beer
07-27-2010, 10:08 PM
In ST you face MLB batters.

Mario-Rijo
07-27-2010, 10:12 PM
Volquez has no business on a MLB mound.

Soooo. Anyone have any ideas how many games he's gotta give away for the experiment to end?

I hope this time you are actually watching the game.

Big Klu
07-27-2010, 10:14 PM
Volquez has no business on a MLB mound.

Soooo. Anyone have any ideas how many games he's gotta give away for the experiment to end?

I figure 2-3 more starts like this one and the one vs. the Nationals before he heads to the bullpen for the rest of the year.

Falls City Beer
07-27-2010, 10:14 PM
I hope this time you are actually watching the game.

I am. He looks horrible.

Falls City Beer
07-27-2010, 10:15 PM
I figure 2-3 more starts like this one and the one vs. the Nationals before he heads to rhw bullpen for the rest of the year.

I hope they're that aggressive with him. If the Reds are even remotely serious about mattering, they'll get him out of the rotation yesterday.

RFS62
07-27-2010, 10:17 PM
He looked like a kid with great stuff who's working off the rust.

It's not that easy, you know.

Falls City Beer
07-27-2010, 10:19 PM
He looked like a kid with great stuff who's working off the rust.

It's not that easy, you know.

So, yeah, let him have the 6 weeks next spring instead of a pennant race.

reds44
07-27-2010, 10:20 PM
It's going to take time. Hopefully he gets it figured out sooner rather than later.

In the meantime, the team has to rally around him. Hang onto this one and your 2-1 in his starts.

Big Klu
07-27-2010, 10:20 PM
He looked like a kid with great stuff who's working off the rust.

It's not that easy, you know.

Pitching in the rotation during a pennant chase is not the time or place to be working off the rust.

Falls City Beer
07-27-2010, 10:21 PM
In the meantime, the team has to rally around him.

The offense has done their part--7 runs against Gallardo. Don't know what else the team needs to do? Hug?

reds44
07-27-2010, 10:22 PM
The offense has done their part--7 runs against Gallardo. Don't know what else the team needs to do? Hug?
Uh, that's exactly what I was saying. Win the game.

And right now the alternative option is Maloney. Keep throwing Volquez out there.

If/when Harang gets healthy and he keeps pitching like this, then you'd have a decision to make.

Falls City Beer
07-27-2010, 10:23 PM
Uh, that's exactly what I was saying. Win the game.

And right now the alternative option is Maloney. Keep throwing Volquez out there.

If/when Harang gets healthy and he keeps pitching like this, then you'd have a decision to make.

Maloney. Yesterday.

reds44
07-27-2010, 10:24 PM
Maloney. Yesterday.
No.

Falls City Beer
07-27-2010, 10:25 PM
No.

This is ridiculous. Maloney throws strikes, this team has one of, if not the best, defense in baseball. It's not even worth a second thought.

camisadelgolf
07-27-2010, 10:27 PM
Volquez looks like a young, inconsistent pitcher who struggles with control, which is exactly what he did tonight. The guy walks 4.7 batters per 9.0 IP for his career, so it's no surprise that he had the kind of night he did.

reds44
07-27-2010, 10:28 PM
This is ridiculous. Maloney throws strikes, this team has one of, if not the best, defense in baseball. It's not even worth a second thought.
This team also plays in a launching pad of a stadium.

camisadelgolf
07-27-2010, 10:28 PM
This is ridiculous. Maloney throws strikes, this team has one of, if not the best, defense in baseball. It's not even worth a second thought.
If Maloney replaces Volquez in the rotation, would you put Volquez in the bullpen? Like Homer Bailey, he's out of options.

Falls City Beer
07-27-2010, 10:28 PM
Volquez looks like a young, inconsistent pitcher who struggles with control, which is exactly what he did tonight. The guy walks 4.7 batters per 9.0 IP for his career, so it's no surprise that he had the kind of night he did.

He also used to K people.

OnBaseMachine
07-27-2010, 10:29 PM
He also used to K people.

He still does. Volquez has 16 K's in 12 IP, or a 12.0 K/9.

camisadelgolf
07-27-2010, 10:30 PM
He also used to K people.
Huh? 16 strikeouts over 12 innings isn't King people?

edabbs44
07-27-2010, 10:31 PM
If Maloney replaces Volquez in the rotation, would you put Volquez in the bullpen? Like Homer Bailey, he's out of options.

Not in any high leverage situations with his control.

RFS62
07-27-2010, 10:32 PM
So, yeah, let him have the 6 weeks next spring instead of a pennant race.


I think it's a very smart investment in this pennant race to let him get it back together right now, right here.

You get sharp facing major league hitting.

This kid is a big part of our future. We need him now if we want to play in the postseason this year.

REDREAD
07-27-2010, 10:33 PM
This is ridiculous. Maloney throws strikes, this team has one of, if not the best, defense in baseball. It's not even worth a second thought.

I've got to disagree. Maloney is known mediocrity at best. It's a given he will not have a winning record in the rotation (in my opinion, naturally).

Volquez might be something better. Naturally there's a chance that Volquez's rust might make him below mediocrity.

We are trying to win the division.. The Reds have to roll the dice with Volquez at least until Harang is healthy. Go for the brass ring and hope the stars line up for you.. don't throw in the towel (Maloney) because you are overly conservative.

Falls City Beer
07-27-2010, 10:45 PM
I've got to disagree. Maloney is known mediocrity at best. It's a given he will not have a winning record in the rotation (in my opinion, naturally).

Volquez might be something better. Naturally there's a chance that Volquez's rust might make him below mediocrity.

We are trying to win the division.. The Reds have to roll the dice with Volquez at least until Harang is healthy. Go for the brass ring and hope the stars line up for you.. don't throw in the towel (Maloney) because you are overly conservative.

Maloney throws strikes like mad. He's not a great pitcher, but Volquez is an absolute flow/energy/bullpen vampire. His schtick could actively hurt the team beyond just the L in the box score.

mth123
07-27-2010, 11:00 PM
Volquez? Maloney? I say walt needs to package a few of the Alonsos, Maloneys and Fraziers of the world and take what's behind door number three.

edabbs44
07-27-2010, 11:05 PM
Volquez? Maloney? I say walt needs to package a few of the Alonsos, Maloneys and Fraziers of the world and take what's behind door number three.

Walt should get creative this offseason with some of the surplus. But I think his choices are limited this year.

Falls City Beer
07-27-2010, 11:06 PM
Volquez? Maloney? I say walt needs to package a few of the Alonsos, Maloneys and Fraziers of the world and take what's behind door number three.

That ship has sailed. Of what's left over, Maloney's the best option till Harang can come back.

reds44
07-27-2010, 11:14 PM
The Reds are on their way to 2-1 in Volquez's starts.

It's fine.

mth123
07-27-2010, 11:20 PM
The Reds are on their way to 2-1 in Volquez's starts.

It's fine.

Just need to score a dozen runs and get 5 innings from the pen and all is right with the world. Hope tomorrow's starter can go 7.

mdccclxix
07-27-2010, 11:27 PM
IIRC, Volquez had a slow start in Spring of 2008. The guy needs to get his sea legs, and he'll be fine. I can't believe people want to bury him already.

reds44
07-27-2010, 11:30 PM
Just need to score a dozen runs and get 5 innings from the pen and all is right with the world. Hope tomorrow's starter can go 7.
I'm just saying he's not killing the team as he goes through is obvious struggles.

And the bullpen is fine. Masset/Rhodes/Cordero didn't pitch in either of the first two games of this series. That's really all that matters.

mth123
07-27-2010, 11:33 PM
That ship has sailed. Of what's left over, Maloney's the best option till Harang can come back.

I'm not high on Harang. Leake will be MIA at some point and the clock could strike 12 on Wood. Bailey is a huge question. Might be down to Arroyo and Cueto and pray for a tornado down the stretch.

If having the high minors filled with major league prospects who won't be able to push past the guys already here while half the line-up is having career years isn't the time to go get a rental or two raise the team a couple of notches, I'm not sure when it will ever be time to win. The big years are happening now and this team isn't really in the developmental stage anymore. Its time to win. It isn't like there are a whole lot of places where this team will be better in 2011.

Cedric
07-27-2010, 11:36 PM
I'm more worried about his arm. His mechanics are really out of whack and he is overthrowing right now. I would rather have Harang or Maloney be in his spot right now.

mth123
07-27-2010, 11:41 PM
IIRC, Volquez had a slow start in Spring of 2008. The guy needs to get his sea legs, and he'll be fine. I can't believe people want to bury him already.

Its not that anyone wants to bury him. Traditionally guys struggle coming back from TJ until the second year. The first season is lump taking time. I'm as optimistic about the young staff as anybody, but I don't think its wise to go down the stretch in a penant race with two rookies, a guy taking his lumps as he works his way back from TJ, a guy with a bad back who has been a shadow of his former self for two years and has no timetable for returning and a guy who has struggled to establish himself and hasn't pitched in over 60 days as the rotation options. Its even nuttier when you have a lot of excess that you can't make use of who could be converted for help.

oregonred
07-28-2010, 12:28 AM
The Reds have the luxury of given Volquez at least another 2-3 starts before they have to make a decision. Maybe it was too easy for him in the first outing. It is going to be a bumpy ride, the evidence is clear we didn't pick up a staff ace to magically whisk us into the postseason. You just can't come back from TJ surgery and become a Cy Young candidate 12 months later.

OnBaseMachine
07-28-2010, 02:32 AM
From John Fay:


Volquez was disappointed but not alarmed.

“My arm and everything feels great,” he said. “I just can’t throw a strike. I still have a little problem with my mechanics.”

Volquez was only making his third big league start since Tommy John surgery. But he knows the Reds need him.

“I’ve got to step up and throw strikes,” he said.


http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/07/28/reds-get-offensive/?GID=rjbUYBYHO8mfFALAEppcxiAGEEuAFRDNUJjYRO5zbWk%3 D

fearofpopvol1
07-28-2010, 02:39 AM
I'm not quite ready to be FCB about Volquez, but I am very concerned. He looked terrible tonight. He hung way too many pitches, he got into bad counts and he rarely threw his fastball. I'd probably give him 1 or 2 more starts...but if things look more like start 2 and start 3, I would move him to the pen.

The Reds are in a really tough spot. They should have let him rehab longer and then after that rehab, stuck him in the pen for the rest of the year...keeping his innings down but allowing him to contribute.

Again, I would give Volquez 1 or 2 more starts...but then I would put him in the pen and send Fisher back to AAA.

I haven't heard much on Harang recently. I thought he was supposed to be back like a week ago. Is he due to come back soon?

GAC
07-28-2010, 05:18 AM
The guy hasn't pitched regularly in almost a year and is trying to come back from major surgery. I think it's a given that he is going to be rusty and very inconsistent trying to find his mojo right now.

I'd put him on a pitch count (if they haven't already), watch the guy carefully, and bring him around slowly as he tries to work on his mechanics and endurance.

mth123
07-28-2010, 06:19 AM
The guy hasn't pitched regularly in almost a year and is trying to come back from major surgery. I think it's a given that he is going to be rusty and very inconsistent trying to find his mojo right now.

I'd put him on a pitch count (if they haven't already), watch the guy carefully, and bring him around slowly as he tries to work on his mechanics and endurance.

75 win teams can bring guys along for next year. This team is tied for 1st place. They need to fill the rotation spot with a guy who is ready to help them win now. Next year, I think that could be Volquez, but counting on it this year is too risky. The trade deadline is Saturday and Volquez won't be able to go again to provide more information to make a decison with. Based on what we've seen (including his minor league rehabs and even his good major league start where much of his success was based on guys chasing pitches out of the zone) he's not ready to get the ball over the plate. Time to go shopping.

TheNext44
07-28-2010, 06:51 AM
75 win teams can bring guys along for next year. This team is tied for 1st place. They need to fill the rotation spot with a guy who is ready to help them win now. Next year, I think that could be Volquez, but counting on it this year is too risky. The trade deadline is Saturday and Volquez won't be able to go again to provide more information to make a decison with. Based on what we've seen (including his minor league rehabs and even his good major league start where much of his success was based on guys chasing pitches out of the zone) he's not ready to get the ball over the plate. Time to go shopping.

He's never had great control, and getting guys to chase balls out of the zone has been his method of success his whole career.

He's been dominant in most of his appearances since coming back, including his first one in the majors when he threw almost nothing but strikes.

I think the odds of Volquez having another bad game in his next start are not that much higher than Wood, or even Arroyo, and are definitely lower than Suppan or Hawksworth.

I agree it's time to go shopping, but that's the case no matter how effective Volquez will be.

Big Klu
07-28-2010, 02:44 PM
Chris Welsh said during the broadcast today that there was an AL scout at last night's game specifically to see Volquez.

Brutus
07-28-2010, 04:35 PM
Chris Welsh said during the broadcast today that there was an AL scout at last night's game specifically to see Volquez.

Seems to me Chris has been drinking some of grandma's old home remedy. I don't think the Reds would consider trading Volquez unless it was for someone real big. I don't think anyone real big is available--unless there were some kind of Greinke talks ongoing.

Falls City Beer
07-28-2010, 04:36 PM
I can't imagine for a moment that a team would trade for Volquez after his last two...events.

I can see the Yankees scouting him.

LoganBuck
07-28-2010, 04:44 PM
Chris Welsh said during the broadcast today that there was an AL scout at last night's game specifically to see Volquez.

Either some sort of blockbuster goes down, or someone was just in the area, and wanted to scout him in advance of the World Series.:D

KoryMac5
07-28-2010, 04:44 PM
Guy hasn't pitched for almost a year. It's going to take time for him to feel comfortable with his mechanics again. The question is do you move him to the pen to work things out or leave him in the rotation and hope he gets it. With Harang ready and Bailey not ready it's a tough decision for Price, Walt, and Baker to make.

Brutus
07-28-2010, 05:14 PM
I can't imagine for a moment that a team would trade for Volquez after his last two...events.

I can see the Yankees scouting him.

I cannot imagine that a team would use the basis of two post-surgery starts for their willingness (or lack thereof) to take him in a trade.

fearofpopvol1
07-28-2010, 05:21 PM
I don't think anyone who is skeptical disagrees with the rust factor and that it will take him time to be properly acclimated back into the rotation. The problem is, the team is in a pennant race and August is here. The Reds can't afford to let him peel his rust now. How much more rope can you afford to give Volquez when he's had back to back bad outings? Straining the bullpen?

Playadlc
07-28-2010, 06:12 PM
Seems to me Chris has been drinking some of grandma's old home remedy. I don't think the Reds would consider trading Volquez unless it was for someone real big. I don't think anyone real big is available--unless there were some kind of Greinke talks ongoing.

I am willing to bet Walt is going all out to get Greinke. If they want Volquez, you have to consider it.

RedsManRick
07-28-2010, 06:16 PM
If Volquez continues to struggle, what do you do when Bailey returns? It's going to be VERY interesting to see what the roster looks like this time next week. Somebody who doesn't deserve it is going to be sent down.

Falls City Beer
07-28-2010, 06:19 PM
If Volquez continues to struggle, what do you do when Bailey returns? It's going to be VERY interesting to see what the roster looks like this time next week. Somebody who doesn't deserve it is going to be sent down.

Unless they're going to use Bailey in the pen, I can't imagine it will be anyone but Volquez. Everyone else is doing too well.

Playadlc
07-28-2010, 06:24 PM
If Volquez continues to struggle, what do you do when Bailey returns? It's going to be VERY interesting to see what the roster looks like this time next week. Somebody who doesn't deserve it is going to be sent down.

Which is why it makes a lot of sense to explore trading Volquez and Bailey if you can get a Greinke type return.

Falls City Beer
07-28-2010, 06:24 PM
Which is why it makes a lot of sense to explore trading Volquez and Bailey if you can get a Greinke type return.

That would be gutsy, but if I'm KC, I want a little more assurance than those two.

HokieRed
07-28-2010, 06:26 PM
Unless they're going to use Bailey in the pen, I can't imagine it will be anyone but Volquez. Everyone else is doing too well.

This may also depend on Sam LeCure's start tonight.

Brutus
07-28-2010, 06:29 PM
I am willing to bet Walt is going all out to get Greinke. If they want Volquez, you have to consider it.

That's very possible. I could see the Royals agreeing to that kind of a return. It seems like the type of move Jocketty would do.

Playadlc
07-28-2010, 06:31 PM
That would be gutsy, but if I'm KC, I want a little more assurance than those two.

Agreed. But two B prospects with Bailey and Volquez would get their attention.

OnBaseMachine
08-01-2010, 04:42 PM
Volquez was a little better today. He still struggled with his command at times but he held the Braves to one run in five innings. He can't keep walking a batter per inning but hopefully his control will improve as he gets more comfortable with his mechanics. From what I saw today, at least two of the walks came via the breaking ball. He doesn't command that pitch as well as he does his changeup and fastball. For now, I'd like to see him not throw the curve as much and instead focus on his two best pitches. I'm not saying scrap the curve, because it's a solid pitch for him, but it's not on the level of his change and fastball.

Mario-Rijo
08-01-2010, 04:57 PM
Volquez was a little better today. He still struggled with his command at times but he held the Braves to one run in five innings. He can't keep walking a batter per inning but hopefully his control will improve as he gets more comfortable with his mechanics. From what I saw today, at least two of the walks came via the breaking ball. He doesn't command that pitch as well as he does his changeup and fastball. For now, I'd like to see him not throw the curve as much and instead focus on his two best pitches. I'm not saying scrap the curve, because it's a solid pitch for him, but it's not on the level of his change and fastball.

I actually disagree with the curve not being a good pitch for him to command I thought he threw it quite well a majority of the time. He could throw it up in the zone a smidge more though to get a called strike more often. I think he'll be fine though.

TheNext44
08-07-2010, 06:17 PM
A step in the right direction today.

6.2 IP 6H 1ER 4BB 2K 0HR

Too many walks, the ump was all over the place today, but that doesn't excuse all of Volquez's wildness today. Volquez did seem to settle down in the middle innings, and looked like he was turning the corner.

His next start will be telling.

membengal
08-07-2010, 07:08 PM
Not trying to be contrarian, but his next start won't be any more "telling" than the one after that. He's coming off TJ surgery. Because of that, his command is a work in progress for 2010. Some starts will be good, some will be bad, and it won't be until next season that we can really count on him to be locked in on a more consistent basis.

If he can keep them close in games, I will be happy at this point. Frankly, they've gotten way more from him than I could possibly hope for up to this point. I thought he would be most safely used as a long man in the pen for the this season.

TheNext44
08-07-2010, 08:42 PM
Not trying to be contrarian, but his next start won't be any more "telling" than the one after that. He's coming off TJ surgery. Because of that, his command is a work in progress for 2010. Some starts will be good, some will be bad, and it won't be until next season that we can really count on him to be locked in on a more consistent basis.

If he can keep them close in games, I will be happy at this point. Frankly, they've gotten way more from him than I could possibly hope for up to this point. I thought he would be most safely used as a long man in the pen for the this season.

Good point. You're right on all accounts. :thumbup:

Homer Bailey
08-08-2010, 02:48 AM
Reds win 6 of 7, no FCB posts since 8/3/10. :p:

TheNext44
08-08-2010, 04:46 AM
Reds win 6 of 7, no FCB posts since 8/3/10. :p:

I know, I miss him. :(

But he's not the only one. There were a group of negative naysayers who have been suspiciously absent from this board since the Reds started winning after April 24th.

Razor Shines
08-08-2010, 05:05 AM
Reds win 6 of 7, no FCB posts since 8/3/10. :p:

Something tells me he's just away, he doesn't strike me as the kind of guy to run and hide.

mth123
08-08-2010, 09:00 AM
Sorry guys, but I agree with FCB's concerns about the rotation. I'm as happy as anyone that the Reds are doing well and I'm fairly optimistic that they can make the play-offs, but the Rotation could be in deep trouble by then. So far this season the rotation has had one spot being filled by a rookie at Cy Young level performance. In April and especially May, MiKe Leake was nearly automatic. Since then he's trailed off and Travis Wood has picked-up the slack. Leake will be done from an innings standpoint by mid-September at the latest and Wood will be probably be pushing it by the end of the year. Johnny Cueto will be well over his previous inning limits by the end of the year and will be in uncharted territory in the post season. Volquez, Harang, and Bailey are all rehabbing guys coming off varying injuries and are fairly inconsistent even when healthy. That just leaves Arroyo as a starter who is likely to perform in the post-season in a manner consistent with his regular season.

Add that the competition pretty much all has legit #1 or #2 starters in place while the Reds try to go with multiple number 3s. Philly (Halladay, Hamels and Oswalt), the Mets (Santana and Pelfrey), San Fran (Lincecum and Cain), Atlanta (Hudson, Hanson and maybe Jurgens), and St. Louis (Carpenter and Wainwright) all have guys who can turn a short series into a cakewalk. Lacking the addition of a top gun, there is reason for concern. The best bet seems to be Volquez and Bailey getting on a roll and pitching like a number 1 throughout the play-offs. They are capable IMO, but very iffy. Hopefully Cueto's lack of winter ball last year will give him staying power through the post-season. Its not that they can't win and its not that I (and I'm sure others voicing the concern) don't want them to win, but ignoring the disadvantage that they may face is either homerism or ignorance of the situation IMO.